2007 Scottish Parliament election

1999 election • MSPs

2003 election • MSPs

Next Election

The Scottish Parliament election, 2007, will be the third general election to the devolved Scottish Parliament since it was created in 1999. Polling will take place on Thursday May 3 unless two-thirds of MSPs vote to dissolve Parliament before then. Incidentially, polling day is two days after the tricentenary of the political union of Scotland and England.

Jack McConnell, as First Minister, will go into the election commanding a small majority consisting of a Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition. The coalition has been in power, with three different First Ministers, since the first Scottish Parliament election in 1999. Opinion polls suggest its majority could be lost in 2007, due to falling support for the Labour Party and rising support for other parties. No single party is likely to acquire an overall majority. Nor is there an obvious alternative coalition ready to form a new Executive.

The Scottish National Party (SNP), currently second place behind Labour in terms of numbers of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), seems best placed to gain from shifting voting patterns should Labour lose seats, and, based on current projections based on recent opinion polls, there could be some possibility of an SNP-Liberal Democrat coalition, which may extend to include the Scottish Green Party. The other parties now represented in the Parliament are the Conservative and Unionists, the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP), Solidarity and the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party.

A tool has been produced by Weber Shandwick Public Affairs that provides information about the election, candidates and constituencies. It also includes a swingometer allowing you to see how the Parliament could change given different figures for the parties' national share of the vote.

Election system

The election will be the first using constituencies (see Scottish Parliament constituencies and regions) which are not identical to constituencies of the House of Commons (Parliament of the United Kingdom). Scottish Westminster constituencies were replaced with a new set of generally larger constituencies, fewer in number, in 2005.

The Arbuthnott Commission reported in January 2006, concerning the multiplicity of voting systems and electoral divisions in Scotland, but there will be no change to the Holyrood election system, except as regards use of vote-counting machines, before the 2007 election.

Scanners supplied by DRS Data Services Limited of Milton Keynes, in partnership with Electoral Reform Services, the trading arm of the Electoral Reform Society, will be used to electronically count the paper ballots in both the Scottish Parliament general election and the Scottish council elections, which take place on the same day.

Party leaders

Major parties

2007 Scottish Parliament Election - Party Leaders
Labour Party		Scottish National Party		Conservative and Unionists		Liberal Democrats
		File:AlexSalmond1.jpg		File:Annabel goldie.jpg		File:Nicol stephen1.jpg
Jack McConnell Current First Minister of Scotland and Leader of the Scottish Labour Party		Alex Salmond Leader of the Scottish National Party		Annabel Goldie Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party		Nicol Stephen Deputy First Minister of Scotland and Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
Age	46	Age	51	Age	55	Age	46
Parliament	7 years	Parliament	Scottish Parliament - 2 years (1999-2001) & UK Parliament - 19 years (1987-present)	Parliament	7 years	Parliament	Scottish Parliament - 7 years & UK Parliament - 5 months (1991-1992)
Leader since	2001	Leader since	1990-2000 & 2004	Leader since	2005	Leader since	2005
Profession	Teacher	Profession	Economist	Profession	Solicitor	Profession	Solicitor

Of the major party leaders in the Scottish Parliament, only one, Jack McConnell, of the Scottish Labour Party fought the 2003 Scottish Parliamentary election as leader. Nicol Stephen succeeded Jim Wallace as Deputy First Minister and Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats in June 2005, after the latter announced that he would not be contesting the 2007 election. Alex Salmond was elected leader of the Scottish National Party in 2004, with his deputy Nicola Sturgeon. Salmond previously led the SNP between 1990 and 2000, but stood down and was replaced by his preferred successor John Swinney, who headed the party between 2000 and 2004. After Swinney's resignation in 2004, Salmond announced that he would, once again contest the leadership and won the ballot of members in June 2004. Annabel Goldie was elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives in November 2005 after the resignation of the incumbent David McLetchie on October 31, 2005 after a row surrounding taxi expenses.

Opinion polls

The first figure for each party is for the 1st, first-past-the-post, constituency, vote; the second figure is for the 2nd, proportional representation, regional, vote. The Scottish Green Party and the Scottish Socialist Party have said that they will not run candidates in constituencies in the 2007 election, so constituency values in polls for those parties have little meaning.

Poll	Dates	Lab		SNP		Con		LD		Grn		SSP		other
		1st	2nd	1st	2nd	1st	2nd	1st	2nd	1st	2nd	1st	2nd	1st	2nd
Channel4/YouGov	8 Jan 2007	31%	28%	33%	33%	14%	15%	14%	11%	5%	7%	1%	1%	-	-
Scotsman/ICM	27 Nov 2006	29%	26%	34%	31%	13%	12%	17%	19%	2%	6%	3%	4%	2%	2%
Scotsman/ICM	1 Nov 2006	30%	28%	32%	28%	14%	14%	15%	17%	3%	6%	4%	4%	2%	2%
Sunday Mail/Progressive Partnership	18-20 Oct 2006	32%	25%	35%	28%	11%	11%	16%	26%	-	4%	2%	5%	2%	1%
Sunday Times/YouGov	5-7 Sept 2006	30%	27%	29%	29%	14%	14%	18%	15%	5%	8%	2%	2%	4%	5%
Herald/System 3	24-29 Aug 2006	36%	28%	28%	27%	12%	11%	17%	19%	3%	8%	4%	6%	-	-
SNP/Scottish Opinion	27 Aug 2006	29%	-	33%	-	10%	-	19%	-	5%	-	2%	-	-	-
Herald/System 3	27 Jul - 1 Aug 2006	37%	29%	29%	32%	13%	10%	14%	15%	2%	8%	3%	4%	-	-
Herald/System 3	29 Jun - 4 Jul 2006	37%	29%	31%	33%	11%	9%	14%	17%	3%	5%	3%	5%	-	-
Ipsos MORI	1 Jul 2006	28%	26%	30%	28%	15%	16%	19%	19%	4%	6%	1%	1%	3%	4%
Result election 2003	1 May 2003	34.89%	29.30%	23.77%	20.86%	16.53%	15.50%	15.13%	11.78%	-	6.68%	6.22%	6.90%	3.46%	8.97%

The Scotsman stated that the findings of their November 1 poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: Labour 41 MSPs (-9), SNP 37 MSPs (+10), Liberal Democrats 25 MSPs (+8), Conservative and Unionists 17 MSPs (-1), Scottish Greens 5 MSPs (-2), others 4 MSPs (-6).

The Sunday Times stated that the findings of their poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: Labour 42 MSPs (-8), SNP 38 MSPs (+11), Liberal Democrats 19 MSPs (+2), Conservative and Unionists 17 MSPs (-1), Scottish Greens 9 MSPs (+2), others 4 MSPs (-6).

Constitutional issue

On 1 November 2006 The Scotsman published an opinion poll conducted by ICM. The survey found that 51% were in favour of Scottish independence, with 37% against.

On 10 September 2006 The Sunday Times Scotland published an opinion poll conducted by YouGov. 1176 respondents were interviewed between 5 September and 7 September 2006 . The survey found that 44% were in favour when asked "If there were a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become an independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, how would you be inclined to vote?" 42% were against, and 15% did not know. 64% were in favour of giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, with 19% disagreeing.

MSPs expected to be retiring at the next general election

Labour

• Susan Deacon, Edinburgh East and Musselburgh [1]
• John Home Robertson, East Lothian [2]
• Janis Hughes, Glasgow Rutherglen [3]
• Kate Maclean, Dundee West [4]
• Maureen MacMillan, Highlands and Islands list [5]

Scottish National Party

• Bruce McFee, West of Scotland list [6]
• George Reid, Ochil [7]

Conservative and Unionists

• Phil Gallie, South of Scotland list [8]
• James Douglas-Hamilton, Lothians list [9]
• David McLetchie, Edinburgh Pentlands [10] (uncertain)

Liberal Democrats

• Donald Gorrie, Central Scotland list [11]
• Jim Wallace, Orkney [12]

Scottish Socialist Party

• Frances Curran, West of Scotland list

Independents

• Dennis Canavan, Falkirk West [13]
• Brian Monteith, Mid Scotland and Fife list [14]
• Jean Turner, Strathkelvin and Bearsden [15] (uncertain)

See also

• Elections in Scotland

External links

• Guide to the Scottish Parliamentary Elections 2007
• VoteScotland Guide to the Electoral System
• Scottish Politics