2012 United States Senate election in Ohio

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United States Senate election in Ohio, 2012

← 2006 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 →
Turnout64.6% (voting eligible)[1]
  Sherrod Brown, official Senate photo portrait, 2007.jpg Josh Mandel.jpg
Nominee Sherrod Brown Josh Mandel
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,762,766 2,435,744
Percentage 50.7% 44.7%

Ohio Senate Election Results by County, 2012.svg
County results
Brown:
     40-50%      50–60%      60–70%
Mandel:
     40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. Senator before election

Sherrod Brown
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Sherrod Brown
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Ohio took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown won re-election to a second term. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary and Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel won the Republican primary with 63% of the vote.[2][3]

Democratic primary[edit]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sherrod Brown (incumbent) 802,678 100.00
Total votes 802,678 100.00

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Filed[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Josh Mandel was endorsed by Rob Portman, U.S. Senator (R-OH);[10] Jim DeMint, U.S. Senator (R-SC);[11] Jim Jordan, U.S. Congressman (R-OH);[12] Club for Growth;[13] National Rifle Association;[14] Tea Party Express;[15] Jeb Bush, Former Governor of Florida;[16] John McCain, U.S. Senator (R-AZ);[17] Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator (R-FL);[18] Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey;[19] Afghanistan & Iraq Veterans for Congress (AIVC);[20] Buckeye Firearms Association[21] National Right to Life Committee;[22] Ohio Right to Life;[23] and National Federation of Independent Business[24]

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Josh Mandel 580,525 63.00
Republican Michael Pryce 130,370 14.15
Republican Donna Glisman 114,183 12.39
Republican David Dodt 47,278 5.13
Republican Eric Gregory 47,123 5.11
Republican Russell Bliss 1,927 0.21
Total votes 921,406 100

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Debates[edit]

The candidates engaged in three debates: October 15, October 18 and 25. The third debate took place Thursday, October 25 at 7 p.m. in Cincinnati. NBC White House Correspondent Chuck Todd moderated the debate with anchor/political reporter Colleen Marshall from WCMH in Columbus, anchor Sheree Paolello from WLWT in Cincinnati, and political reporter Tom Beres from WKYC in Cleveland. It was live on all Ohio NBC affiliates.[27]

Campaign[edit]

In 2006, U.S. Representative Sherrod Brown defeated two-term incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mike DeWine 56%-44% 2006 election. Over the past six years, he established a very liberal, progressive, and populist record. The National Journal named Brown the most liberal U.S. Senator in the past two years.[28] The Washington Post called him a "modern-day Paul Wellstone." One article said "Brown is way to the left of Ohio in general, but probably the only person who could outwork Brown is Portman."[29] Brown is the only candidate the 60 Plus Association targeted in the 2012 election cycle.[30]

Mandel, 34, was elected state treasurer in 2010. Before that, he was a Lyndhurst City Councilman and Ohio State Representative. He was criticized as Ohio Treasurer for not fulfilling his pledge to serve a four-year term and for not attending any of the Board of Deposit monthly meetings.[31] However, Mandel raised a lot of money. He was called a rising star in the Republican Party and was called "the rock star of the party." He was also compared to Marco Rubio.[32]

Mandel's campaign was singled out by the independent fact-checking group Politifact for its "casual relationship with the truth" and its tendency to "double down" after inaccuracies were pointed out. The fact-checking group wrote: "For all the gifts Mandel has, from his compelling personal narrative as an Iraq war veteran to a well-oiled fundraising machine, whoppers are fast becoming a calling card of his candidacy."[33]

Mandel raised $7.2 million through the first quarter of 2012. He had $5.3 million cash on hand, trailing Brown's $6.3 million.[34] However, Mandel benefited from massive support from conservative out-of-state superPACs, which raise unlimited amounts of money from anonymous donors. These outside groups, including Crossroads GPS, aired over $60 million in TV advertising supporting Mandel and attacking Brown,[35] outspending Democratically-aligned outside groups by more than five-to-one.[36] Mandel's campaign was aided by over $1 million spent primarily on attack ads by a 501(c)(4) organization called the Government Integrity Fund. The group was funded by anonymous donors and run by lobbyist Tom Norris of Columbus, Ohio-based Cap Square Solutions.[37]

Endorsements[edit]

Brown was endorsed by the Cleveland Plain Dealer,[38] the Columbus Dispatch,[39] the Toledo Blade,[40] the Youngstown Vindicator,[41] the Cincinnati Enquirer,[42] and the Akron Beacon-Journal.[43]

Mandel was endorsed by the Warren Tribune-Chronicle[44] and the Marietta Times.[45]

Fundraising[edit]

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Sherrod Brown (D) $8,132,882 $3,379,775 $6,273,316 $0
Josh Mandel (R) $7,286,390 $1,999,397 $5,286,993 $0
Scott Rupert (I) $3,153 $2,594 $389 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[46][47][48]

Top contributors[edit]

[49]

Sherrod Brown Contribution Josh Mandel Contribution
JStreetPAC $71,175 Club for Growth $172,904
Ohio State University $69,470 Senate Conservatives Fund $114,400
Kohrman, Jackson & Krantz $59,500 Suarez Corp $90,000
Cleveland Clinic $57,971 Kasowitz Benson Torres & Friedman $41,600
Forest City Enterprises $51,600 American Financial Group $32,750
American Electric Power $42,350 Cintas Corp $30,000
Squire Sanders $39,400 Sullivan & Cromwell $25,475
Baker & Hostetler $38,906 Susquehanna International Group $22,500
Case Western Reserve University $35,450 Timken Company $22,500
Vorys, Sater, Seymour and Pease $34,167 Crawford Group $22,000

Top industries[edit]

[50]

Sherrod Brown Contribution Josh Mandel Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,587,113 Retired $480,900
Retired $942,717 Financial Institutions $397,140
Health Professionals $536,954 Real Estate $371,057
Real Estate $435,066 Lawyers/Law Firms $362,515
Lobbyists $393,651 Leadership PACs $320,050
Education $369,722 Republican/Conservative $278,924
Leadership PACs $318,975 Manufacturing & Distributing $276,600
Hospitals/Nursing Homes $286,072 Misc Finance $205,350
Insurance $223,983 Retail Industry $166,650
Financial Institutions $204,350 Pro-Israel $163,000

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[51] Lean D November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] Lean D November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[53] Lean D November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[54] Lean D November 5, 2012

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Josh
Mandel (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 10–13, 2011 559 ±4.1% 48% 32% 21%
Quinnipiac[permanent dead link] May 10–16, 2011 1,379 ±2.6% 45% 31% 2% 21%
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 565 ±4.1% 48% 31% 21%
Quinnipiac July 12–18, 2011 1,659 ±4.1% 49% 34% 1% 16%
Public Policy Polling August 11–14, 2011 792 ±3.5% 48% 33% 19%
Quinnipiac September 20–25, 2011 1,301 ±2.7% 49% 36% 13%
Public Policy Polling October 13–16, 2011 581 ±4.1% 48% 40% 12%
Quinnipiac October 17–23, 2011 1,668 ±2.4% 49% 34% 1% 14%
Public Policy Polling November 4–6, 2011 1,421 ±2.6% 48% 35% 14%
Quinnipiac January 9–16, 2012 1,610 ±2.4% 47% 32% 1% 18%
Public Policy Polling January 28–29, 2012 820 ±3.4% 47% 36% 17%
Rasmussen Reports February 8, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 40% 4% 12%
Quinnipiac February 7–12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 35% 4% 17%
NBC News/Marist February 29 – March 2, 2012 3,079 ±1.8% 47% 37% 16%
Quinnipiac March 20–26, 2012 1,246 ±2.8% 46% 36% 3% 14%
Rasmussen Reports March 26, 2012 500 ±4.5% 43% 43% 3% 11%
Rasmussen Reports April 18, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 41% 3% 12%
Public Policy Polling May 3–6, 2012 875 ±3.3% 45% 37% 19%
Quinnipiac May 2–7, 2012 1,069 ±3.0% 46% 40% 1% 13%
NBC News/Marist May 17–20, 2012 1,103 ±3.0% 51% 37% 12%
Rasmussen Reports May 29, 2012 500 ±4.5% 47% 42% 3% 7%
Public Policy Polling June 21–24, 2012 673 ±3.8% 46% 39% 15%
Quinnipiac June 19–25, 2012 1,237 ±2.8% 50% 34% 1% 14%
Rasmussen Reports July 18, 2012 500 ±4.5% 46% 42% 4% 8%
Magellan Strategies July 23–24, 2012 597 ±4.0% 45% 38% 12% 5%
Quinnipiac July 24–30, 2012 1,193 ±2.8% 51% 39% 1% 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 13, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 44% 3% 9%
Quinnipiac August 15–21, 2012 1,253 ±2.8% 48% 45% 1% 10%
Ohio Poll August 16–21, 2012 847 ±3.4% 48% 47% 5%
Columbus Dispatch August 15–25, 2012 1,758 ±2.1% 44% 44% 12%
Gravis Marketing September 7–8, 2012 1,548 ±2.7% 47% 42% 11%
Public Policy Polling September 7–9, 2012 1,072 ±3.0% 48% 40% 11%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 9–11, 2012 979 ±3.1% 49% 42% 9%
Rasmussen Reports September 12, 2012 500 ±4.5% 49% 41% 3% 7%
Ohio Newspaper Organization September 13–18, 2012 861 ±3.3% 52% 45% 1% 2%
Fox News Poll September 16–18, 2012 1,009 ±3.0% 47% 40% 1% 9%
Gravis Marketing September 21–22, 2012 594 ±4.3% 44% 43% 13%
Washington Post September 19–23, 2012 934 ±4.0% 53% 41% 6%
CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac September 18–24, 2012 1,162 ±4.0% 50% 40% 10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist September 30 – October 1, 2012 931 ±3.2% 50% 41% 1% 7%
Rasmussen Reports October 4, 2012 500 ±4.5% 46% 46% 2% 6%
SurveyUSA October 5–8, 2012 808 ±3.5% 42% 38% 4% 16%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll October 7–9, 2012 994 ±3.1% 52% 41% 1% 6%
Rasmussen Reports October 10, 2012 500 ±4.5% 47% 46% 2% 4%
Public Policy Polling October 12–13, 2012 880 ±3.3% 49% 42% 9%
Survey USA October 12–15, 2012 613 ±4.0% 43% 38% 4% 14%
Rasmussen Reports October 17, 2012 750 ±4.0% 49% 44% 1% 5%
CBS News/Quinnipiac October 17–20, 2012 1,548 ±3.0% 51% 42% 7%
Public Policy Polling October 18–20, 2012 532 ±4.3% 49% 44% 7%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 18–20, 2012 550 ±4.2% 52% 45% 3%
Suffolk October 18–21, 2012 600 unknown 46% 39% 6% 10%
Pharos Research October 19–21, 2012 810 ±3.4% 52% 41% 7%
SurveyUSA October 20–22, 2012 725 ±4.2% 43% 42% 3% 12%
Rasmussen Reports October 23, 2012 750 ±4.0% 48% 44% 2% 5%
Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News October 18–23, 2012 1,015 ±3.1% 51% 47% 1% 2%
Gravis Marketing October 27, 2012 730 ±3.6% 48% 47% 5%
CBS/Quinnipiac University October 23–28, 2012 1,110 ±3.0% 51% 42% 7%
Public Policy Polling October 26–28, 2012 718 ±3.7% 53% 42% 6%
Pharos Research October 26–28, 2012 765 ±3.5% 53% 43% 7%
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2012 750 ±4.0% 50% 48% 1% 1%
SurveyUSA October 26–29, 2012 603 ±4.1% 46% 41% 3% 10%
Zogby/Newsmax October 27–29, 2012 825 ±3.5% 46% 38% 8% 9%
University of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll October 25–30, 2012 1,182 ±2.9% 49% 44% 4% 3%
Reuters/Ipsos October 29–31, 2012 885 ±3.8% 49% 41% 4% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 31 – November 1, 2012 971 ±3.1% 50% 45% 1% 4%
Rasmussen Reports November 1, 2012 750 ±4.0% 48% 48% 2% 2%
Columbus Dispatch October 24 – November 3, 2012 1,501 ±2.2% 51% 45% 4%
Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cincinnati October 31 – November 4, 2012 901 ±3.3% 51% 47% 3%
SurveyUSA November 1–4, 2012 803 ±3.5% 44% 41% 4% 9%
Angus Reid Public Opinion November 2–4, 2012 572 ±4.1% 52% 46% 2%
Public Policy Polling November 3–4, 2012 1,000 ±3.1% 54% 44% 3%
Rasmussen Reports November 4, 2012 750 ±4% 50% 48% 1% 1%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2012[55]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Sherrod Brown (incumbent) 2,762,766 50.70% -5.46%
Republican Josh Mandel 2,435,744 44.70% +0.88%
Independent Scott Rupert 250,618 4.60% N/A
Total votes 5,449,128 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
  2. ^ ENR - My Results[permanent dead link]
  3. ^ Election Map 2012: Live Voting Results - POLITICO.com
  4. ^ "Glisman for Senate". www.VoteGlisman.com (Campaign site). Archived from the original on May 15, 2013. Retrieved September 15, 2013.
  5. ^ "Eric LaMont Gregory - America First - Mansfield". www.theoxfordscientist.com. Archived from the original on October 6, 2012. Retrieved September 15, 2013.
  6. ^ Guillen, Joe (March 12, 2012). "After months of campaigning, Josh Mandel formally announces bid for U.S. Senate". cleveland.com. The Plain Dealer. Retrieved September 15, 2013.
  7. ^ "Michael Pryce M.D. for U.S. Senate Ohio". Michaelpryce.com. Archived from the original on June 23, 2012. Retrieved June 27, 2011.
  8. ^ Catanese, David (October 24, 2011). "Coughlin terminates bid". POLITICO.com. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  9. ^ Miller, Joshua (October 25, 2011). "State Senator Ends Ohio Senate Primary Bid". Roll Call Politics. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  10. ^ Miller, Joshua (October 25, 2011). "Sen. Portman supports Mandel in email - The Hill's Ballot Box". Roll Call. Retrieved September 16, 2013.
  11. ^ Center, Shira T. (June 27, 2011). "DeMint Endorses Josh Mandel in Ohio". Roll Call Politics. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  12. ^ Koff, Stephen (August 22, 2011). "Ending the Jim Jordan speculation: He endorses Josh Mandel". cleveland.com. The Plain Dealer. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  13. ^ Koff, Stephen (June 28, 2011). "Josh Mandel gets another national endorsement for U.S. Senate". cleveland.com. The Plain Dealer. Retrieved September 15, 2013.
  14. ^ "National Rifle Association ǀ Political Victory Fund ǀ Ohio". Archived from the original on October 9, 2012. Retrieved August 7, 2018.
  15. ^ Tea Party Express | 2012 Endorsements | Tea Party Express
  16. ^ Jeb Bush: Ohio's Mandel Key to GOP Control of Senate
  17. ^ Sen. John McCain praises Josh Mandel's military experience in endorsing his Senate campaign | cleveland.com
  18. ^ Ohio: Marco Rubio Stumps for Josh Mandel | Josh Mandel for U.S. Senate
  19. ^ "John McCain, Chris Christie campaign for Ohio GOP Senate candidate Josh Mandel". Archived from the original on September 8, 2012. Retrieved April 20, 2012.
  20. ^ "AIVC Endorsed US Senate Candidate Josh Mandel (R-OH): Why Ohio is the Key to Beating Obama | Afghanistan & Iraq Veterans for Congress". Archived from the original on October 21, 2013. Retrieved April 25, 2012.
  21. ^ http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/node/8293
  22. ^ NRL PAC Endorses Josh Mandel for Senate in Ohio | NRL News Today
  23. ^ "Ohio Right to Life PAC Endorses Federal Candidates - Ohio Right to Life PAC Website". Archived from the original on March 31, 2012. Retrieved May 3, 2012.
  24. ^ "NFIB Endorses Josh Mandel in Ohio U.S. Senate Election | NFIB". Archived from the original on May 11, 2012. Retrieved May 10, 2012.
  25. ^ "ENR - My Results". Archived from the original on April 13, 2012. Retrieved April 13, 2012.
  26. ^ Bletner, Rhonda (July 31, 2012). "Senate hopeful Scott Rupert speaks with local residents". Mount Vernon News. Archived from the original on October 15, 2012. Retrieved December 2, 2015.
  27. ^ http://www.wfmj.com/story/19706950/ohio-nbc-affiliates-to-air-live-senate-debate-october-25th
  28. ^ Terkel, Amanda (December 22, 2011). "Which Senate Race Is Attracting Most GOP Third-Party Spending?". Huffington Post.
  29. ^ Blake, Aaron (November 8, 2011). "Sherrod Brown and the Wellstone factor". The Washington Post.
  30. ^ Neal, Meghan (March 5, 2012). "GOP 'Rock Star' Could Spell Trouble For Sherrod Brown". Huffington Post.
  31. ^ McAuliff, Michael (February 24, 2012). "Ohio Senate Candidate Skipped Board Meetings For No Known Reason". Huffington Post.
  32. ^ Politics - Molly Ball - Is Josh Mandel the Next Marco Rubio? - The Atlantic
  33. ^ Gomez, Henry (March 26, 2012). "Even in an age of fact checking, the whopper lives". Politifact. Retrieved July 5, 2012.
  34. ^ Wehrman, Jessica (April 16, 2012). "Incumbents winning in fundraising". Dayton Daily News. Retrieved April 30, 2012.
  35. ^ "Sherrod Brown: 'Karl Rove Had A Bad Night'". November 7, 2012. Retrieved November 7, 2012.
  36. ^ Welna, David (July 5, 2012). "Ohio Senator Vulnerable For Health Law Support". NPR. Retrieved July 5, 2012.
  37. ^ Elliot, Justin (September 7, 2012). "Revealed: The Dark Money Group Attacking Sen. Sherrod Brown". ProPublica. Retrieved September 9, 2012.
  38. ^ "Sherrod Brown has earned a second term in the Senate: editorial". cleveland.com. The Plain Dealer. October 6, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013. ],
  39. ^ "Brown's experience makes him the better choice for voters". dispatch.com. Columbus Dispatch (subscription). October 31, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  40. ^ "Re-elect Senator Brown". toledoblade.com. The Toledo Blade. October 7, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  41. ^ "Sherrod Brown: the clear choice in Ohio's U.S. Senate race". vindy.com. The Youngstown Vindicator. October 8, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  42. ^ "Brown dedicated to Ohio's needs, problems". Cincinnati.com. Cincinnati Enquirer. October 27, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  43. ^ "For the U.S. Senate: Sherrod Brown". Ohio.com. Akron Beacon Journal. September 22, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  44. ^ "Mandel best for economic future of Ohio". tribtoday.com. Tribune Chronicle (Warren, OH). October 21, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  45. ^ "Vote for Mandel on Nov. 6". MariettaTimes.com. Marietta Times. October 13, 2012. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  46. ^ Brown Campaign Finances[permanent dead link]
  47. ^ Mandel Campaign Finances[permanent dead link]
  48. ^ Rupert Campaign Finances[permanent dead link]
  49. ^ Center for Responsive Politics
  50. ^ Donors by Industry (opensecrets.org)
  51. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 22, 2018.
  52. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 22, 2018.
  53. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 22, 2018.
  54. ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 22, 2018.
  55. ^ https://www.sos.state.oh.us/elections/election-results-and-data/2012-elections-results/

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites