2015 Polish parliamentary election

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2015 Polish parliamentary election

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All 460 seats to the Sejm of Poland
231 seats are needed for a majority in the Sejm
All 100 seats to the Senate of Poland
Turnout50.92%
  First party Second party Third party
  Premier RP Beata Szydło w Parlamencie UE.jpg Ewa Kopacz - Konwencja PO (cropped).jpg Paweł Kukiz Sejm 2016 01.JPG
Leader Beata Szydło Ewa Kopacz Paweł Kukiz
Party PiS PO Kukiz'15
Leader since Candidate for PM 8 November 2014 28 July 2015
Leader's seat 12 – Chrzanów 19 – Warsaw I 19 – Warsaw I
Last election 157 seats, 29.89% 207 seats, 39.18% New party
Seats before 134 197 0
Seats won 235 138 42
Seat change Increase 101 Decrease 59 Increase 42
Popular vote 5,711,687 3,661,474 1,339,094
Percentage 37.58% 24.09% 8.81%
Swing Increase 7.69% Decrease 15.09% New party

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Ryszard Petru Sejm 02 2016.JPG J.Piechociński.JPG Ryszard Galla Sejm 2016.JPG
Leader Ryszard Petru Janusz Piechociński Ryszard Galla
Party .N PSL MN
Leader since 31 May 2015 17 November 2012 25 September 2005
Leader's seat 19 – Warsaw I 20 – Warsaw II (lost re-election) 21 - Opole
Last election Did not exist 28 seats, 8.36% 1 seat, 0.19%
Seats before 0 38 1
Seats won 28 16 1
Seat change Increase 28 Decrease 22 Steady
Popular vote 1,155,370 779,875 27,530
Percentage 7.60% 5.13% 0.18%
Swing New party Decrease 3.23% Decrease 0.01%

Poland general election 2015 - Results by Sejm District.svg
Seats won by Sejm District

Prime Minister before election

Ewa Kopacz
PO

Elected Prime Minister

Beata Szydło
PiS

Parliamentary elections to both the Sejm and Senate were held in Poland on 25 October 2015.

The election was won by the largest opposition party, the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS), with 37.6% of the vote against the governing Civic Platform (PO), which achieved 24.1%. Official results, announced on 27 October, gave Law and Justice 235 of 460 seats (51 percent), a majority of four.[1] PiS vice chairwoman Beata Szydło succeeded PO leader Ewa Kopacz as Prime Minister of Poland, heading a one-party cabinet.

It was the first election for a national parliament in Europe since the 1993 Norwegian elections in which the two largest parties were led by a female candidate, and the second election in history (also since the 1993 Norwegian election) where more than three parties fielded female leadership candidates. It was also the first election in Poland since the restoration of full democracy that a party won an absolute majority in the Sejm.

Electoral system[edit]

The process of election for the Sejm is through open party-list proportional representation via the D'hondt method in multi-seat constituencies, with a 5% national threshold for single parties and 8% threshold for coalitions (requirements waived for ethnic minorities). The senate is elected using first-past-the-post voting in single-member districts.[2] To be included on a ballot, a senate candidate must present 2,000 signatures of support from their constituents.[3] For Sejm elections, the threshold is 5,000 signatures per constituency, though that requirement is waived for parties that have already registered lists in at least half of all constituencies (21 out of 41 as of this election).[4]

Overall, the Sejm includes 460 MPs. Should a party have 231 or more deputies in Parliament, it has an absolute majority and can thus govern autonomously, without the need for support from other parties. The constitution can be amended with a supermajority of two-thirds, or 307 deputies.

Election date[edit]

The date of the election, 25 October, was set by the previous President of Poland, Bronisław Komorowski.[5] The latest possible date for the election to be held was in November 2015, four years after the previous election. Prior to the announcement of the election date, the most likely dates were thought to be in October or November.

In the previous parliamentary elections in 2011 the Civic PlatformPolish People's Party coalition government, in power since 2007, won a second term. All 460 seats in the Sejm and 100 seats in the Senate were up for election.

Parties standing in the election[edit]

Nationwide committees[edit]

Party Leader Ideologies Political spectrum Political groups of the European Parliament
Civic Platform (PO) Ewa Kopacz Christian democracy, Liberal conservatism, Pro-Europeanism[6][7][8] Centre[9][10][11] to Centre-right European People's Party Group (EPP)
Law and Justice (PiS)
Solidary Poland (SP)
Poland Together – United Right (PRZP)
Right Wing of the Republic (PRz)
Jarosław Kaczyński
Beata Szydło (PM candidate)
National conservatism, Social conservatism, Euroscepticism Right-wing[12][13][14] to far-right[15] European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)
United Left[16][17][18][19] (ZL)
Democratic Left Alliance (SLD)
Your Movement (TR)
Polish Socialist Party (PPS)
Labour Union (UP)
The Greens (Zieloni)
Polish Labour Party[20] (PPP)
Barbara Nowacka Social democracy, Social liberalism, Social progressivism, Green politics, Democratic socialism (minority), Feminism[17][20][21][22] Centre-left to Left-wing Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D)
Polish People's Party (PSL) Janusz Piechociński Christian democracy, strongly based around Agrarianism, Conservatism Centre-right European People's Party Group (EPP)
Parties not in the Sejm before the election are below
Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic - Liberty and Hope (KORWiN) Janusz Korwin-Mikke Right libertarianism, Anti-immigration, Hard-Euroscepticism, Paleolibertarianism[23] Right-wing[24] Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD)
Kukiz'15 (K'15) Paweł Kukiz Populism, Anti-establishment, Anti-particracy[25] Big tent[26] to Right-wing[27]
.Modern (.N) Ryszard Petru Social liberalism, Economic liberalism, Pro-Europeanism Centre
Together (Razem) collective leadership Social democracy, Democratic socialism, Progressivism Left-wing

Regional committees[edit]

Party Leader Ideology Political spectrum Political groups of the European Parliament
German Minority Electoral Committee (MN) Ryszard Galla Regionalism, German minority interests Centre
Parties not in the Sejm before the election are below
Congress of the New Right (KNP) Michał Marusik Right libertarianism, New right, Euroscepticism Right-wing Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF)
Single-member district – Nonpartisan (JOW Bezpartyjni) Robert Raczyński Pro single-member constituency Big tent
Committee of Zbigniew Stonoga (KWW ZS) Zbigniew Stonoga Anti-communism, Civil libertarianism, Populism Big tent
Social Movement of the Republic of Poland (RS RP) Sławomir Izdebski Agrarian socialism, Left-wing populism Left-wing
United for Silesia (ZdŚ) Dietmar Brehmer Silesian regionalism, Fiscal federalism Centre
Self-Defence (Samoobrona) Lech Kuropatwiński Agrarianism, Left-wing nationalism Left-wing
God Bless! (SzB!) Grzegorz Braun Monarchism, Traditionalism, Ordoliberalism Right-wing
Citizens to Parliament (OdP) Jan Zbigniew Potocki Liberal democracy Big tent

Opinion polls[edit]

Election polls

Results[edit]

The opposition party, Law and Justice won the election with 37.58% of the vote against the governing Civic Platform, which gained a 24.09% share.[28] Beata Szydło became the new Prime Minister, succeeding Ewa Kopacz.[29][30] Law and Justice became the first party in Poland to win majority government in a free election, since 1991. The other parties considered winners were two newcomer parties, Kukiz's Movement (third place) and Ryszard Petru's Modern party (4th place).

Two of the biggest losers were Civic Platform and the Polish People's Party. PO suffered its worst result in a parliamentary election in ten years, ending eight years of political dominance. The PSL, the junior partner in the outgoing government, had its worst result in 25 years (5.13%), just crossing the 5% threshold by a few thousand votes. Another perceived loser was the Democratic Left Alliance, Poland's largest left-wing party, which failed to win a seat for the first time since the change of system. The SLD ran as the largest partner of the United Left, which was 0.5% short of the 8% threshold for electoral alliances to win seats.

Sejm[edit]

Results of the Sejm election by electoral district. Blue represents Law and Justice, and orange Civic Platform.
Polish Sejm Election 2015.svg
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Law and Justice5,711,68737.58235+78
Civic Platform3,661,47424.09138–69
Kukiz'151,339,0948.8142New
Modern1,155,3707.6028New
United Left 1,147,1027.550–67
Polish People's Party779,8755.1316–12
KORWiN722,9994.760New
Together550,3493.620New
Committee of Zbigniew Stonoga42,7310.280New
German Minority Electoral Committee27,5300.1810
United for Silesia18,6680.120New
JOW Bezpartyjni15,6560.100New
Committee of Grzegorz Braun "God Bless You!"13,1130.090New
Congress of the New Right4,8520.0300
Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland4,2660.0300
Social Movement of the Republic of Poland3,9410.030New
Citizens to Parliament1,9640.010New
Total15,200,671100.004600
Valid votes15,200,67197.47
Invalid/blank votes394,6642.53
Total votes15,595,335100.00
Registered voters/turnout30,629,15050.92
Source: PKW
Popular vote (Sejm)
PiS
37.58%
PO
24.09%
K'15
8.81%
.N
7.60%
ZL
7.55%
PSL
5.13%
Others
9.25%
Parliament seats (Sejm)
PiS
51.09%
PO
30.00%
K'15
9.13%
.N
6.09%
PSL
3.48%
MN
0.22%

By constituency[edit]

Constituency Turnout PiS PO Kukiz'15 Modern ZL PSL KORWiN Razem MN Others Lead
1 – Legnica 46.71 35.70 25.24 9.59 7.15 10.45 3.89 4.32 3.64 - 0.00 10.46
2 – Wałbrzych 44.83 31.15 32.65 8.81 6.64 8.76 3.18 4.30 3.41 - 1.09 1.50
3 – Wrocław 54.08 31.21 30.49 8.74 10.65 6.10 2.60 5.22 4.21 - 0.77 0.72
4 – Bydgoszcz 47.87 30.20 29.64 7.77 7.30 10.04 6.07 4.54 3.76 - 0.68 0.56
5 – Toruń 44.90 33.57 25.77 8.32 6.50 10.76 6.75 3.90 3.65 - 0.78 7.80
6 – Lublin 52.01 47.57 16.59 9.32 4.54 5.98 7.74 5.00 2.75 - 0.52 30.98
7 – Chełm 45.30 48.02 12.31 10.47 3.75 7.11 11.39 4.37 2.39 - 0.18 35.71
8 – Zielona Góra 44.63 28.27 28.21 8.75 9.99 10.02 5.12 4.99 3.99 - 0.65 0.06
9 – Łódź 56.74 29.90 31.28 7.24 8.99 10.48 2.70 4.78 4.63 - 0.00 1.38
10 – Piotrków Trybunalski 50.26 46.95 15.46 10.08 5.59 7.47 7.48 3.91 3.06 - 0.00 31.49
11 – Sieradz 48.47 39.93 21.18 8.92 5.32 8.18 7.86 4.10 3.54 - 0.98 18.75
12 – Chrzanów 54.46 49.05 20.42 8.67 5.79 5.33 3.03 4.45 3.26 - 0.00 28.63
13 – Kraków 58.81 38.62 24.61 7.26 9.73 6.38 2.70 6.35 3.88 - 0.48 14.01
14 – Nowy Sącz 52.18 60.56 13.95 7.83 3.69 2.55 4.16 4.31 2.13 - 0.80 46.61
15 – Tarnów 51.85 51.99 14.71 9.60 4.54 3.41 8.08 4.72 2.43 - 0.53 37.28
16 – Płock 46.22 43.78 16.44 8.41 5.15 8.14 10.66 4.07 3.35 - 0.00 27.34
17 – Radom 49.38 47.49 17.55 8.41 4.81 4.82 9.42 3.91 2.62 - 0.98 29.94
18 – Siedlce 50.56 51.10 13.55 8.36 4.63 4.35 10.23 4.35 2.66 - 0.76 37.55
19 – Warsaw I 70.80 29.89 27.54 7.76 13.39 8.55 0.72 6.18 5.54 - 0.43 2.35
20 – Warsaw II 60.00 38.80 25.12 7.22 10.01 5.66 3.80 4.81 3.85 - 0.73 13.68
21 – Opole 43.12 27.77 26.23 12.57 7.14 6.75 3.68 3.95 3.02 8.14 0.75 1.54
22 – Krosno 47.47 53.51 13.76 9.15 3.97 4.56 7.28 4.28 2.32 - 1.17 39.75
23 – Rzeszów 52.56 56.11 13.11 9.28 4.16 4.42 4.67 4.96 2.29 - 1.00 43.00
24 – Białystok 47.10 45.38 16.74 9.07 5.37 7.35 8.07 4.66 2.59 - 0.77 28.64
25 – Gdańsk 52.55 29.61 34.72 7.15 9.17 6.59 3.02 5.00 3.98 - 0.75 5.11
26 – Gdynia 51.28 31.22 33.46 8.02 8.22 6.64 3.23 4.43 4.05 - 0.75 2.24
27 – Bielsko-Biała 56.35 40.42 23.57 9.36 8.27 6.56 3.42 4.68 3.72 - 0.00 16.82
28 – Częstochowa 49.83 35.82 20.95 11.63 6.74 11.12 4.99 4.27 3.64 - 0.84 14.87
29 – Gliwice 49.12 30.51 28.99 12.19 8.90 7.21 2.50 5.09 4.15 - 0.48 1.52
30 – Rybnik 51.82 39.59 24.21 11.31 6.33 5.93 1.79 4.53 3.33 - 2.98 15.38
31 – Katowice 53.92 32.92 28.37 10.05 8.66 6.77 0.99 5.55 4.08 - 2.61 4.55
32 – Sosnowiec 51.41 29.65 25.56 10.24 8.97 13.97 2.35 4.81 4.44 - 0.00 4.09
33 – Kielce 46.82 42.81 17.25 9.41 4.98 7.87 9.51 4.14 2.80 - 1.23 25.56
34 – Elbląg 41.30 31.56 30.12 8.24 5.82 7.69 6.69 4.73 3.80 - 1.34 1.44
35 – Olsztyn 43.13 30.42 27.07 8.97 6.82 8.76 8.44 5.10 3.74 - 0.68 3.35
36 – Kalisz 47.27 31.85 24.69 7.98 7.04 8.82 10.98 4.25 3.17 - 1.23 7.16
37 – Konin 46.64 37.41 20.23 8.83 6.94 11.77 6.86 3.99 3.98 - 0.00 17.18
38 – Piła 46.07 27.26 31.02 9.01 6.98 9.15 7.66 4.07 3.92 - 0.93 3.76
39 – Poznań 60.23 23.90 35.65 6.06 14.49 8.07 1.91 4.77 4.60 - 0.55 11.75
40 – Koszalin 43.63 28.58 30.07 9.41 8.06 11.38 4.13 4.46 3.90 - 0.00 1.49
41 – Szczecin 47.27 29.09 31.93 8.42 8.66 8.56 3.88 5.33 4.12 - 0.00 2.84
Poland 50.92 37.58 24.09 8.81 7.60 7.55 5.13 4.76 3.62 0.18 0.69 13.49

Senate[edit]

Results of the Senate election by single-mandate districts.Blue represents Law and Justice, orange - Civic Platform, green - Polish People Party, grey - independents.
Results of elections 1991–2015
POL Senat RP seats 2015.svg
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Law and Justice5,993,43339.9961+30
Civic Platform4,323,78928.8534–29
Polish People's Party1,109,6757.401–1
United Left595,2063.9700
Modern394,8172.630New
Kukiz'15207,1561.380New
KORWiN186,5101.240New
JOW Bezpartyjni113,6690.760New
Citizens to Parliament84,2460.560New
Congress of the New Right79,9460.5300
Democratic Party64,8290.4300
National Revival of Poland57,0120.3800
German Minority Electoral Committee40,4720.2700
Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland20,9130.1400
Social Movement of the Republic of Poland14,3160.100New
Whites–Reds10,9730.070New
Committee of Zbigniew Stonoga10,1670.070New
Slavic Union9,5620.060New
Committee of Grzegorz Braun "God Bless You!"7,9160.050New
Real Politics Union6,1900.0400
Patriotic Poland6,0900.0400
National Movement5,4620.040New
Labour Party3,3800.0200
Piast – Unity of the Thoughts of European Nations1,7860.010New
Independents1,640,57110.9540
Total14,988,086100.001000
Valid votes14,988,08696.12
Invalid/blank votes604,9473.88
Total votes15,593,033100.00
Registered voters/turnout30,629,15050.91
Source: PKW, PKW

Reactions[edit]

Political analysts noted that the election marked the first time in the post-communist era that a political party received enough votes to form a majority government.[31][32] BBC News suggested that Law and Justice's strategy of putting forward Szydło as its candidate for prime minister was a "winning formula" in the election. Szydło was widely perceived as being more moderate than PiS' outspoken leader, Jarosław Kaczyński. However, it also noted that Kaczyński could step into the role of prime minister after the election.[32]

According to the Associated Press, the new Sejm was the most right-wing parliament in Europe due to the absence of centre-left MPs in the chamber. All five parties in the Sejm tilted rightward on social issues. Between them, left-leaning alliances only gained 11 percent of the vote.[33]

Kopacz swiftly conceded defeat after exit polls from TVP showed PiS on its way to a majority, while Kaczyński declared victory and hailed his party's historic majority.[34] Kaczyński also paid tribute to his late brother, President Lech Kaczyński, who died in the 2010 plane crash.[30]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Poland's Eurosceptics win outright majority in parliament". Reuters. Retrieved 27 October 2015.
  2. ^ Álvarez-Rivera, Manuel (17 October 2015). "Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Polish Sejm, Part I". electionresources.org. Retrieved 25 October 2015.
  3. ^ "Notes on the Senate" (PDF). Senate of Poland. Retrieved 25 October 2015.
  4. ^ "Sejm of the Republic of Poland". Sejm. Retrieved 25 October 2015.
  5. ^ Rylukowski, Wojciech (17 July 2015). "Komorowski announces elections date". Warsaw Business Journal. Archived from the original on 21 October 2015. Retrieved 25 October 2015.
  6. ^ "Polish premier's departure leaves party facing test". Financial Times.
  7. ^ Hloušek, Vít; Kopeček, Lubomír (2010). Origin, Ideology and Transformation of Political Parties. google.de. ISBN 9780754678403.
  8. ^ Guardiancich, Igor (2013). Pension Reforms in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. google.de. ISBN 9780415688987.
  9. ^ Copsey, Nathaniel (2013). Poland:An Awkward Partner Redeemed. The Member States of the European Union (Second ed.). Oxford University Press. p. 191.
  10. ^ Szczerbiak, Aleks (2012). Poland Within the European Union: New awkward partner or new heart of Europe?. Routledge. p. 2.
  11. ^ De Waele, Jean-Michel; Pacześniak, Anna (2012). The Europeanisation of Poland's political parties and party system. Europeanisation and Party Politics. ECPR Press. p. 125.
  12. ^ Michael Minkenberg (2013). "Between Tradition and Transition: the Central European Radical Right and the New European Order". In Christina Schori Liang (ed.). Europe for the Europeans: The Foreign and Security Policy of the Populist Radical Right. Ashgate Publishing, Ltd. p. 261. ISBN 978-1-4094-9825-4.
  13. ^ Lenka Bustikova (2018). "The Radical Right in Eastern Europe". In Jens Rydgren (ed.). The Oxford Handbook of the Radical Right. Oxford University Press. p. 574. ISBN 978-0-19-027455-9.
  14. ^ Aleks Szczerbiak (2012). Poland Within the European Union: New Awkward Partner Or New Heart of Europe?. Routledge. p. 1. ISBN 978-0-415-38073-7.
  15. ^
  16. ^ "Poland's United Left puts forward candidate for PM". Polskie Radio dla Zagranicy.
  17. ^ a b "Do Zjednoczonej Lewicy dołączył nowy koalicjant". interia.pl. 14 September 2015.
  18. ^ "United Left presents its new leader and PM candidate". WBJ. Archived from the original on 6 October 2015. Retrieved 6 October 2015.
  19. ^ "Start". Zjednoczona Lewica.
  20. ^ a b Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung. "Marxismus". bpb.de.
  21. ^ "Where Does the Left Come From?". internationalviewpoint.org.
  22. ^ "Polska Partia Pracy". partiapracy.pl. Archived from the original on 3 July 2006. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  23. ^ "Maverick MEP Korwin-Mikke launches new party". Polskie Radio dla Zagranicy.
  24. ^ "Maverick MEP Korwin-Mikke launches new party – National". Thenews.pl. 23 January 2015. Retrieved 5 March 2015.
  25. ^ Rightist Party That Made Auschwitz Joke Wins Polish Elections Haaretz, 27 October 2015
  26. ^ "Kulturalny flesz dnia: KUKIZ vs. PIERSI, WILDSTEIN vs. PESZEK, SHIRLEY TEMPLE". wpolityce.pl.
  27. ^ Poland expected to turn inward under right-wing party The Washington Post, 26 October 2015
  28. ^ Lyman, Nick (25 October 2015). "Law and Justice Party Wins in Poland's Parliamentary Elections". The New York Times. Retrieved 25 October 2015.
  29. ^ "Poland conservatives 'win election'". BBC News. Retrieved 25 October 2015.
  30. ^ a b Cienski, Jan (25 October 2015). "Polish right sweeps parliamentary elections". Politico. Retrieved 25 October 2015.
  31. ^ "Poland Ousts Government as Law & Justice Gains Historic Majority". Bloomberg. 25 October 2015. Retrieved 25 October 2015.
  32. ^ a b "Poland elections: Conservatives secure decisive win". 25 October 2015. Retrieved 25 October 2015.
  33. ^ Gaeta, Vanessa (28 October 2015). "Left wing is shut out in parliamentary vote in conservative Poland". The Boston Globe. Associated Press.
  34. ^ "Eurosceptic conservatives win Polish election – exit poll". RTÉ News. 25 October 2015. Retrieved 25 October 2015.