2016 Massachusetts Democratic primary

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Massachusetts Democratic primary, 2016

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  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 46 45
Popular vote 606,822 589,803
Percentage 49.73% 48.33%

Massachusetts Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

The 2016 Massachusetts Democratic primary took place on March 1 in the U.S. state of Massachusetts as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, dubbed "Super Tuesday," Democratic primaries were held in ten other states plus American Samoa, while the Republican Party held primaries in eleven states including their own Massachusetts primary.

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results March 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49.7%
Bernie Sanders
48.3%
Others / Uncommitted
2.0%
SurveyMonkey[1]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 1,224

February 22–29, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
46%
Others / Undecided
6%
Emerson College[2]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 670

February 26–28, 2016 Hillary Clinton
54%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided
3%
Suffolk University[3]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

February 25–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Others / Undecided
8%
WBZ-UMass Amherst[4]

Margin of error: ± 6.5%
Sample size: 400

February 19–25, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
9%
WBUR[5]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 418

February 21–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
7%
Emerson College[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.75%
Sample size: 417

February 19–21, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
46%
Undecided 5%
Public Policy Polling[7]

Margin of error: ± 4.2
Sample Size: 538

February 14–16, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49%
Hillary Clinton
42%
Undecided 9%
Emerson College

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 265

October 16–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
25%
Jim Webb
5%
Martin O'Malley 3%, Lincoln Chafee 3%, Other 2%, Undecided 3%
Emerson College[8]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 430

March 14–19, 2015 Hillary Clinton
43%
Elizabeth Warren
16%
Joe Biden
10%
Bernie Sanders 6%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Other/Undecided 24%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 358

January 19–21, 2015 Hillary Clinton
46%
Elizabeth Warren
22%
Undecided 32%
Suffolk University

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

August 21–24, 2014 Hillary Clinton
55%
Elizabeth Warren
17.25%
Joe Biden
7.75%
Andrew Cuomo 4.75%, Martin O'Malley 1.5%, Undecided 12.25%, Refused 1.25%, Other 0.25%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 666

May 1–2, 2013 Hillary Clinton
55%
Joe Biden
17%
Andrew Cuomo
4%
Deval Patrick 4%, Elizabeth Warren 4%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone else/Not sure 14%

Results[edit]

Primary date: March 1, 2016
National delegates: 91

Results of the Massachusetts Democratic primary on March 1, 2016
Candidate Popular vote[9] Estimated delegates[10]
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 606,822 49.73% 46 21 67
Bernie Sanders 589,803 48.33% 45 1 46
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 4,783 0.39% 0 0 0
Rocky De La Fuente 1,545 0.13% 0 0 0
No preference 8,090 0.66% 2 2
All others 4,927 0.40% 0 0 0
Blank votes 4,326 0.35%
Total 1,220,296 100% 91 24 115

Results by county[edit]

County[11] Clinton % Sanders %
Barnstable 21,889 48.7% 22,456 50.0%
Berkshire 12,916 47.6% 13,851 51.0%
Bristol 37,187 48.7% 36,797 48.2%
Dukes 2,312 44.8% 3,804 54.4%
Essex 65,679 48.7% 66,797 49.3%
Franklin 5,485 29.0% 13,286 70.2%
Hampden 31,766 50.3% 29,699 47.0%
Hampshire 14,309 40.4% 24,638 57.6%
Middlesex 170,096 51.5% 154,785 46.9%
Nantucket 979 47.5% 1,060 51.5%
Norfolk 72,105 52.7% 61,835 45.2%
Plymouth 39,165 48.3% 40,219 49.6%
Suffolk 79,314 56.6% 58,134 41.5%
Worcester 53,610 44.8% 63,745 53.2%
Total 606,822 49.7% 589,803 48.3%

Analysis[edit]

Clinton ran a close race against Bernie Sanders, much closer than her 15-point-win in the state eight years earlier against Barack Obama, but ultimately she came out victorious in the Bay State. She lost the Caucasian vote (85% of the electorate in Massachusetts) narrowly, 50-49, to Bernie Sanders, according to exit polls. She also lost the male vote 58-41. However, she won the non-white vote 59-41, and the votes of women 57-42 (including both married women 59-40, and unmarried women 53-46), which likely put her over the top statewide.

Sanders won among voters who had only a high school diploma or less, while Clinton won more highly educated voters, including postgraduates, who made up a larger proportion of the Massachusetts electorate. And while Sanders won 54-46 among voters under the age of 45, Clinton won 54-45 with those over 45 years of age, including a resounding 59-39 victory among senior citizens. And while Sanders won 55-45 among voters who make less than $100k per year, Clinton won with more affluent voters.

In terms of political party affiliation, Clinton won Democrats (65% of the electorate) 60-40, but lost Independents to Sanders 66-33.[12]

While Sanders carried a majority of counties statewide, Clinton swept most of the major urban areas and cities, as well as the affluent suburbs. She won Boston by a large margin and also emerged victorious in other urban and more conservative towns such as Springfield and Worcester.[13]

The Clinton win in Massachusetts came as a major blow to the Sanders campaign on Super Tuesday, as he had wanted to win a blue, largely white and liberal state like Massachusetts resoundingly in order to stay competitive after disappointing losses across the Southeast.

Following the primary, Elizabeth Warren, the state's senior US senator, was widely criticized by Sanders supporters online for her refusal to endorse him prior to the primary. Supporters of Bernie Sanders have argued that an endorsement from Warren, whose political positions were similar to that of Sanders's, and who was a frequent critic of Hillary Clinton in the past, could have handed Massachusetts to him.[14] Warren though, had made it clear prior to the primary that she would not endorse either candidate until the end of the primary season, in which she eventually endorsed Clinton.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Trump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday". Retrieved 2016-03-01.
  2. ^ "EMERSON POLL: CRUZ CLINGS TO NARROW LEAD IN TEXAS; TRUMP ROMPS IN BAY STATE, CLINTON PULLS AWAY FROM SANDERS" (PDF).
  3. ^ "FINAL FEBRUARY MASS. DEM LIKELY VOTERS GeoCode" (PDF).
  4. ^ "UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters" (PDF).
  5. ^ "WBUR Poll: In Mass., Clinton Edges Sanders, While Trump Leads Big".
  6. ^ "EMERSON POLL: IN MASSACHUSETTS CLINTON, SANDERS IN A DEAD HEAT; TRUMP TROUNCES ALL GOP RIVALS" (PDF).
  7. ^ "March 2016 Democratic Primary Polls" (PDF).
  8. ^ "Wix PDF" (PDF). media.wix.com. Retrieved 2015-07-09.
  9. ^ "2016 President Democratic Primary". Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  10. ^ The Green Papers
  11. ^ http://electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/view/36510/
  12. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
  13. ^ "How did Hillary Clinton win Massachusetts Super Tuesday primary? Urban vote in Springfield, Boston made the difference". Retrieved 2016-09-25.
  14. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2016-10-06. Retrieved 2016-10-05.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)