2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

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2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
  Maggie Hassan, official portrait, 115th Congress.jpg Kelly Ayotte, Official Portrait, 112th Congress 1.jpg
Nominee Maggie Hassan Kelly Ayotte
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 354,649 353,632
Percentage 48.0% 47.8%
New Hampshire Senate Election Results by County, 2016.svg
County results
Hassan:      40–50%      50–60%
Ayotte:      40–50%      50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

Elections in New Hampshire
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The 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary election to select the candidates who appeared on the general election ballot took place on September 13, 2016.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte ran for re-election to a second term in office and won the primary by a wide margin.[2] The Governor of New Hampshire Maggie Hassan chose not to seek reelection to a third term as governor and instead sought the nomination of the Democratic Party for the Senate. Hassan was unopposed in the Democratic primary and won the general election by 1,017 votes, representing a winning margin of approximately 0.14%.[3] This is the closest race in a New Hampshire Senate election since the disputed 1974–75 election, and the first Democratic victory for New Hampshire's Class 3 Senate seat since that election. Hassan joined fellow former governor and Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in representing New Hampshire in the Senate. Although Hassan’s narrow victory in this 2016 Senate race would not flip majority control of the Senate during the 115th Congress of 2017-19 or the 116th Congress of 2019-21, it would help give the Democratic Party a narrow majority in the U.S. Senate more than four years later, during the 117th United States Congress.

Republican primary[edit]

Ayotte was predicted to face opposition in the primary from a Tea Party candidate. In October 2013, former New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chairman Jack Kimball said: "There is no question in my mind that she will garner a primary challenger".[4] Ultimately, she faced only token opposition.

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) 86,558 78.55%
Republican Jim Rubens 19,139 17.37%
Republican Tom Alciere 1,586 1.44%
Republican Gerald Beloin 1,252 1.14%
Republican Stanley Emanuel 1,187 1.08%
Democratic Maggie Hassan (write-in) 301 0.27%
Scatter 167 0.15%
Total votes 110,190 100.00%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Libertarian convention[edit]

On Saturday, January 16, 2016, the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire selected Brian Chabot to be their nominee for the U.S. Senate.[22][23]

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Debates[edit]

Dates Location Ayotte Hassan Link
September 30, 2016 North Conway, New Hampshire Participant Participant Full debate - YouTube
October 14, 2016 Manchester, New Hampshire Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 27, 2016 Concord, New Hampshire Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
November 2, 2016 Manchester, New Hampshire Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements[edit]

Kelly Ayotte
Presidents
Governors (current and former)
U.S. Senators
State Legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Maggie Hassan
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Labor Unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[90] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[91] Lean D (flip) November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[92] Tossup November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[93] Tossup November 5, 2016
Real Clear Politics[94] Tossup November 5, 2016

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kelly
Ayotte (R) 		Maggie
Hassan (D) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 696 ± 4.6% 42% 51% 6% 1%
WMUR/UNH November 3–6, 2016 707 ± 3.7% 45% 49% 1% 4%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 41% 50% 7% 2%
Emerson College November 4–5, 2016 1,000 ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5% 1%
WMUR/UNH November 2–5, 2016 645 ± 3.7% 45% 47% 2% 6%
WMUR/UNH November 1–4, 2016 588 ± 3.7% 44% 48% 2% 6%
WMUR/UNH Oct 31–Nov 3, 2016 515 ± 3.7% 42% 48% 3% 7%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 9% 3%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–2, 2016 1,001 ± 2.0% 46% 44% — 10%
Suffolk University Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 44% 42% 5% 8%
American Research Group Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 2% 3%
WMUR/UNH Oct 30–Nov 2, 2016 466 ± 3.7% 41% 48% 3% 8%
UMass Lowell/7News Oct 28–Nov 2, 2016 695 LV ± 4.3% 46% 47% 5% 3%
901 RV ± 3.8% 43% 46% 5% 6%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 658 ± 4.6% 37% 50% 10% 3%
Public Policy Polling Oct 31–Nov 1, 2016 781 ± 3.5% 45% 48% — 7%
WMUR/UNH Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 468 ± 3.7% 43% 47% 2% 8%
WBUR/MassINC Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 51% 45% 1% 3%
48% 43% — 6%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 635 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 9% 3%
WMUR/UNH October 28–31, 2016 513 ± 3.7% 44% 46% 2% 8%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 659 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 8% 4%
WMUR/UNH October 27–30, 2016 463 ± 3.7% 45% 45% 2% 8%
WMUR/UNH October 26–30, 2016 641 ± 3.9% 44% 46% 3% 8%
WMUR/UNH October 26–29, 2016 516 ± 3.7% 44% 45% 3% 8%
InsideSources/NH Journal October 26–28, 2016 408 ± 4.2% 49% 47% — 4%
Emerson College October 23–25, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 50% 44% 6% 1%
Monmouth University October 22–25, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 46% 46% 6% 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 20–24, 2016 768 LV ± 3.5% 48% 47% 2% 2%
1,020 RV ± 3.1% 48% 47% 2% 3%
UMass Amherst/WBZ October 17–21, 2016 772 ± 4.5% 48% 44% 4% 4%
46% 43% 4% 8%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2016 900 ± 3.2% 45% 45% 10% 1%
WMUR/UNH October 11–17, 2016 770 ± 3.5% 39% 48% 4% 9%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 569 ± 0.5% 42% 47% 10% 1%
WBUR/MassINC October 10–12, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 47% 47% 2% 5%
46% 45% 2% 6%
7News/UMass Lowell October 7–11, 2016 517 ± 4.9% 45% 44% 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 7–9, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 43% 44% — 13%
Suffolk University October 3–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 47% 41% 4% 6%
WBUR/MassINC September 27–29, 2016 502 ± 4.4% 45% 48% 3% 4%
46% 48% 3% 3%
GBA Strategies September 25–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 7% 2%
47% 49% — 4%
American Research Group September 20–25, 2016 522 ± 4.2% 47% 47% — 6%
Monmouth University September 17–20, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 2% 5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist September 6–8, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 52% 44% — 4%
Emerson College September 3–5, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 48% 46% — 6%
Public Policy Polling August 30–31, 2016 585 ± 4.1% 44% 47% — 9%
Public Policy Polling August 26–28, 2016 977 ± 3.0% 45% 47% — 8%
WMUR/UNH August 20–28, 2016 433 ± 4.7% 42% 44% 3% 12%
CBS News/YouGov August 10–12, 2016 990 ± 4.3% 41% 42% — 17%
Vox Populi Polling (R) August 7–8, 2016 820 ± 3.4% 43% 46% — 11%
Public Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016 802 ± 3.5% 42% 47% — 11%
WBUR/MassINC July 29–August 1, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 50% 2% 7%
37% 48% 2% 11%
GBA Strategies July 25–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 47% 47% 2% 4%
InsideSources/NH Journal July 19–21, 2016 1,166 ± 5.1% 49% 41% — 10%
WMUR/UNH July 9–18, 2016 469 ± 4.5% 42% 45% 3% 11%
American Research Group June 24–28, 2016 533 ± 4.2% 51% 42% — 7%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 578 ± 4.1% 42% 44% — 15%
Global Strategy Group June 15–16, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 45% 49% — 6%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 46% 47% — 7%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 649 ± 3.9% 44% 47% — 8%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University May 25–28, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 48% 47% — 5%
Global Strategy Group May 25–26, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 43% 45% — 12%
WBUR/MassINC May 12–15, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 46% 48% 2% 4%
Dartmouth College April 11–16, 2016 362 ± 5.2% 37% 35% — 28%
WMUR/UNH April 7–17, 2016 553 ± 4.2% 43% 42% — 15%
WMUR/UNH February 20–28, 2016 628 ± 3.7% 45% 41% 4% 10%
Marist Poll January 28, 2016 2,258 ± 2.1% 45% 40% — 15%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2016 1,036 ± 3.0% 44% 42% — 14%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 990 ± 3.1% 42% 42% — 16%
Public Policy Polling October 16–18, 2015 880 ± 3.3% 43% 44% — 13%
Gravis Marketing October 5–6, 2015 1,035 ± 3.1% 52% 42% — 6%
WMUR/UNH Sept 21–Oct 2, 2015 519 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 44% 43% — 13%
NBC News/Marist Poll July, 2015 910 ± 3.2% 50% 42% — 8%
WMUR/UNH July 7–20, 2015 472 ± 4.5% 47% 41% 1% 12%
The Tarrance Group July 5–6, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 51% 44% — 5%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates June 25–28, 2015 500 ± 3.0% 52% 41% — 7%
WMUR/UNH May 6–22, 2015 524 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 2% 9%
Gravis Marketing April 21–22, 2015 1,117 ± 3.0% 51% 43% — 6%
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 45% 46% — 9%
Gravis Marketing March 18–19, 2015 1,110 ± 5.0% 47% 45% — 8%
Public Opinion Strategies February 17–18, 2015 424 ± 4.7% 46% 45% — 9%
NBC News/Marist February 3–10, 2015 887 ± 3.3% 44% 48% — 7%
New England College December 1, 2014 541 ± 4.2% 48% 43% 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling January 9–12, 2014 1,354 ± 2.7% 46% 40% — 14%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,038 ± 3.0% 45% 44% — 11%
Public Policy Polling April 19–21, 2013 933 ± 3.2% 44% 46% — 10%

Fundraising[edit]

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Maggie Hassan (D) $18,698,223.00 $18,564,772.00 $133,450.00 $0
Kelly Ayotte (R) $16,409,753.89 $16,197,583.64 $134,182.99 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[95]

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016[3]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Maggie Hassan 354,649 47.98% +11.24%
Republican Kelly Ayotte (incumbent) 353,632 47.84% -12.32%
Independent Aaron Day 17,742 2.40% N/A
Libertarian Brian Chabot 12,597 1.70% +0.65%
Write-in 520 0.07% N/A
Total votes 739,140 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Allegations of voting irregularities[edit]

In February 2017, President Donald Trump (who had endorsed Ayotte) told a gathering of senators at the White House that fraudulent out-of-state voting had cost him and Ayotte the election in New Hampshire.[96] On September 7, state House speaker Shawn Jasper (who also had endorsed Ayotte) alleged that voter fraud swung the election. He made the allegations based on a report by the New Hampshire House of Representatives saying that of the 6,540 voters who had registered to vote on Election Day, only 1,014 of those voters had obtained a New Hampshire drivers license by August 30 of the following year. The Washington Post was able to quickly contact 3 such voters who said that they were college students and kept the drivers license from their home state.[97]

Several investigations by New Hampshire's Ballot Law Commission found no evidence of widespread fraud, and only 4 instances of fraud total in the state for the 2016 elections.[98] Specifically addressing the claim of people being bussed in from out of state to vote, Associate Attorney General Anne Edwards noted that they found no evidence for such claims. When they investigated these claims, they found that the buses were chartered out of state, but the voters on the buses lived in New Hampshire and could legally vote there.[98]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "2016 Election Information". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
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  92. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings (September 30, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
  93. ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
  94. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
  95. ^ "New Hampshire 2016 Senate race fundraising".
  96. ^ Stokols, Eli (February 10, 2017). "Trump brings up vote fraud again, this time in meeting with senators". Politico.
  97. ^ Weigel, David (September 8, 2017). "Election Integrity Commission members accuse New Hampshire voters of fraud". The Washington Post.
  98. ^ a b "After Exhaustive Investigations, NH Officials Find No Widespread Fraud in Recent Elections". New Hampshire Public Radio. May 29, 2018. Retrieved December 3, 2018.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites
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