2016 Wisconsin Democratic primary

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Wisconsin Democratic primary, 2016

← 2008 April 5, 2016 (2016-04-05) 2020 →
  Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Candidate Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Home state Vermont New York
Delegate count 48 38
Popular vote 570,192[1] 433,739
Percentage 56.59% 43.05%

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Election results by county.
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton

The 2016 Wisconsin Democratic primary was held on April 5 in the U.S. state of Wisconsin as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Vermont senator Bernie Sanders won the contest with 56.5%, distancing nationwide frontrunner Hillary Clinton by 13 percentage points.

The Wisconsin Republican primary, held on the same day in conjunction with the Democratic primary, yielded a win for Ted Cruz, who distanced nationwide frontrunner Donald Trump by 13%. With no other primaries being scheduled for that day by either party and just two weeks ahead of the important New York primary, the Wisconsin primary was in the national spotlight.

The two parties' primaries were held in conjunction with this year's Wisconsin judicial elections, where Wisconsin Supreme Court justice Rebecca Bradley was confirmed for a 10-year elected term, winning over Appeals Court judge JoAnne Kloppenburg.[2]

Clinton lost Wisconsin by a narrow margin in the general election, against Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Procedure[edit]

State primary procedure[edit]

As Wisconsin held an open primary, residents could choose freely which party's primary they wished to participate in, when showing up at the polls on election day, regardless of their official registration with either party or none. Polling stations were opened between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m. Central Time.[3]

The two parties' primaries were held in conjunction with this year's Wisconsin judicial elections that included the election of the Wisconsin Supreme Court justice.[2]

Democratic nomination procedure[edit]

The Democratic Party of Wisconsin pledges only 86 out of 96 delegates to the 2016 Democratic National Convention based on the popular vote at the primary election on the basis of proportional apportion. However, only the 18 at-large delegates and 10 pledged "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" (PLEOs) are apportioned according to the statewide vote, while the 57 district delegates are apportioned according to the vote within each of the state's eight congressional districts. The remaining ten Wisconsin delegates are unpledged "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" (PLEOs), or "Superdelegates", who may vote for whomever they wish at the party's upcoming National Convention.[4]

Candidates[edit]

While three candidates appeared on the Democratic primary ballot,[5] only Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton actively campaigned for the Wisconsin contest, after Martin O'Malley had already suspended his campaign.

Presidential debate in Milwaukee, February 2016[edit]

The Democratic Party held its sixth presidential debate on February 11, 2016 in Milwaukee, at the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee. Moderated by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff, the debate aired on PBS and was simulcast by CNN. Participants were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary Results April 5, 2016 Bernie Sanders
56.6%
Hillary Clinton
43.1%
Others / Uncommitted
0.4%
ARG[6]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

April 1–3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
48%
Others / Undecided
3%
Emerson[7]

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 542

March 30 – April 3, 2016 Bernie Sanders
51%
Hillary Clinton
43%
Others / Undecided
6%
CBS News/YouGov[8]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 653

March 29 – April 1, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49%
Hillary Clinton
47%
Others / Undecided
4%
FOX Business[9]

Margin of error: ± 3.0%
Sample size: 860

March 28–30, 2016 Bernie Sanders
48%
Hillary Clinton
43%
Others / Undecided
10%
Loras College[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 416

March 28–29, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
12%
Public Policy Polling[11]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 720

March 28–29, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49%
Hillary Clinton
43%
Others / Undecided
8%
MULaw Poll[12]

Margin of error: ± 6.3%
Sample size: 405

March 24–28, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49%
Hillary Clinton
45%
Others / Undecided
6%
Emerson College[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 439

March 20–22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
6%
MULaw Poll[14]

Margin of error: ± 6.9%
Sample size: 343

February 18–21, 2016 Bernie Sanders
44%
Hillary Clinton
43%
Others / Undecided
13%
MULaw Poll[15]

Margin of error: ± 6.5%
Sample size: 312

January 21–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
45%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Martin O'Malley
1%
Not Reported
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Marquette Law School[16]

Margin of error: ± 6.1%
Sample size: 374

November 12–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Undecided 7%
St. Norbert College[17]

Margin of error: ± 6%
Sample size: ?

October 14–17, 2015 Hillary Clinton
35%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Joe Biden
21%
Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Jim Webb 0%, Not Sure 10%
Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb <1%, Not Sure 7%
Marquette University[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 394

September 24–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
42%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Joe Biden
17%
Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Jim Webb 0%
Marquette University[19]

Margin of error: ± 6.1%
Sample size: 396

August 13–16, 2015 Hillary Clinton
44%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Joe Biden
12%
Lincoln Chafee 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%
Marquette University[20]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 391

April 7–10, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58.2%
Elizabeth Warren
14.3%
Joe Biden
12%
Martin O'Malley 0.9%, Jim Webb 0.9%, Someone else 3.7%, Don't know 8.9%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 504

March 6–8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
60%
Joe Biden
14%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other/Undecided 7%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 579

April 17–20, 2014 Hillary Clinton
57%
Russ Feingold
19%
Joe Biden
8%
Elizabeth Warren 5%, Cory Booker 1%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Someone else/Not sure 8%
Polls in 2013
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Marquette University

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 392

October 21–27, 2013 Hillary Clinton
64%
Elizabeth Warren
10.8%
Joe Biden
10.6%
Andrew Cuomo 1.9%, Martin O'Malley 0.8%, Someone else 2.1%, Don't know 9.2%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 449

September 13–16, 2013 Hillary Clinton
50%
Russ Feingold
20%
Joe Biden
11%
Elizabeth Warren 4%, Cory Booker 3%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone else/Not sure 9%
Marquette University

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 333

May 6–9, 2013 Hillary Clinton
61.5%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
4.8%
Andrew Cuomo 4.2%, Deval Patrick 1.5%, Martin O'Malley 1.1%, Mark Warner 0.7%, Someone else 1.5%, Don't Know 11%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error:
Sample size:

February 21–24, 2013 Hillary Clinton
50%
Russ Feingold
25%
Joe Biden
11%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Elizabeth Warren 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Deval Patrick 1%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone Else/Undecided 8%

Results[edit]

Wisconsin Democratic primary, April 5, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 570,192 56.59% 48 1 49
Hillary Clinton 433,739 43.05% 38 9 47
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 1,732 0.17%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (write-in) 18 0.00%
Scattering 431 0.04%
Uncommitted 1,488 0.15% 0 0 0
Total 1,007,600 100% 86 10 96
Source: The Green Papers, Wisconsin Secretary of State

Results by county[edit]

County Clinton % Sanders %
Adams 1,375 47.22% 1,515 52.03%
Ashland 1,248 36.00% 2,204 63.57%
Barron 5,572 46.11% 2,965 53.16%
Bayfield 1,488 36.09% 2,619 63.52%
Brown 16,701 42.40% 22,559 57.27%
Buffalo 825 41.46% 1,149 57.74%
Burnett 918 49.04% 936 50.00%
Calumet 3,028 42.86% 4,017 56.86%
Chippewa 4,022 43.77% 5,127 55.79%
Clark 1,473 42.67% 1,969 57.04%
Columbia 4,187 39.21% 6,460 60.49%
Crawford 1,146 41.61% 1,592 57.81%
Dane 61,405 37.27% 102,986 62.51%
Dodge 4,505 41.75% 6,249 57.91%
Door 2,943 46.06% 3,426 53.62%
Douglas 3,577 43.82% 4,512 55.27%
Dunn 2,421 35.95% 4,279 63.54%
Eau Claire 7,689 35.88% 13,674 63.81%
Florence 175 36.92% 293 61.81%
Fond du Lac 5,519 42.65% 7,385 57.07%
Forest 610 47.25% 667 51.67%
Grant 3,068 40.37% 4,491 59.10%
Green 2,766 38.59% 4,368 60.95%
Green Lake 871 42.89% 1,148 56.52%
Iowa 2,164 40.14% 3,202 59.40%
Iron 437 42.93% 563 55.30%
Jackson 1,294 40.64 1,872 58.79%
Jefferson 4,775 38.60% 7,555 61.07%
Juneau 1,355 42.21% 1,839 57.29%
Kenosha 10,897 42.49% 14,653 57.13%
Kewaunee 1,497 47.06% 1,667 52.40%
La Crosse 8,908 36.93% 15,156 62.84%
Lafayette 1,170 46.37% 1,331 52.75%
Langlade 1,192 44.83% 1,447 54.42%
Lincoln 1,732 41.33% 2,442 58.27%
Manitowoc 4,999 43.37% 6,458 56.03%
Marathon 8,061 40.66% 11,673 58.87%
Marinette 2,580 48.59% 2,698 50.81%
Marquette 994 42.62% 1,321 56.56%
Menominee 204 36.36% 355 63.28%
Milwaukee 100,798 51.68% 93,688 48.02%
Monroe 2,269 38.86% 3,539 60.61%
Oconto 2,422 47.99% 2,590 51.32%
Oneida 2,500 39.40% 3,813 60.09%
Outagamie 11,228 39.62% 17,021 60.07%
Ozaukee 6,587 48.75% 6,897 51.04%
Pepin 435 43.54% 561 56.16%
Pierce 2,343 41.82% 3,208 57.27%
Polk 2,165 46.21% 2,476 52.85%
Portage 5,088 35.08% 9,351 64.46%
Price 862 37.56% 1,418 61.79%
Racine 14,111 48.84% 14,681 50.82%
Richland 1,276 41.55% 1,786 58.16%
Rock 11,262 39.20% 17,360 60.42%
Rusk 816 42.52% 1,092 56.90%
St. Croix 4,895 45.90% 5,679 53.25%
Sauk 4,527 38.48% 7,203 61.22%
Sawyer 976 36.86% 1,654 62.46%
Shawano 2,117 41.19% 3,303 58.44%
Sheboygan 7,145 44.13% 8,952 55.30%
Taylor 852 39.68% 1,279 59.57%
Trempealeau 1,989 44.76% 2,430 54.68%
Vernon 1,936 35.60% 3,481 64.01%
Vilas 1,414 36.36% 2,147 60.09%
Walworth 5,188 37.96% 8,426 61.65%
Washburn 1,058 42.32% 1,419 56.76%
Washington 6,388 45.24% 7,690 54.46%
Waukesha 24,835 48.28% 26,442 51.40%
Waupaca 2,585 39.68% 3,894 59.77%
Waushara 1,241 43.45% 1,600 56.02%
Winnebago 11,212 38.44% 17,854 61.22%
Wood 4,428 39.46% 6,756 60.20%
Total 433,739 43.05% 570,192 56.59%

Detailed results per congressional district[edit]

Detailed results for the Wisconsin Democratic primary, April 5, 2016[21]
District Total Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton
Votes Delegates Votes Delegates Votes Delegates
1st district 104,747 6 57,327 3 47,420 3
2nd district 204,897 11 127,466 7 77,431 4
3rd district 117,465 7 72,043 4 45,422 3
4th district 144,659 10 68,255 5 76,404 5
5th district 100,823 5 54,809 3 46,014 2
6th district 105,348 6 60,490 3 44,858 3
7th district 98,860 6 56,683 3 42,177 3
8th district 107,841 6 61,965 3 45,876 3
At-large delegates 1,002,036 19 567,865 11 434,171 8
Pledged PLEOs 1,002,036 10 567,865 6 434,171 4
Total 1,002,036 86 567,865 48 434,171 38

Analysis[edit]

Liberals & Conservatives Line Up for Bernie Sanders’ Wisconsin Rally

Bernie Sanders scored a large victory in Wisconsin, a largely liberal and big manufacturing state. He was bolstered by a 73-26 showing among younger voters, a 64-35 showing among men, a 72-28 showing among self-identified Independents, and a 59-40 showing among white voters who comprised 83% of the electorate in the Cheese State. Sanders also won women 50-49, but lost African American voters to Clinton, 69-31. Sanders swept all income and educational attainment levels in Wisconsin.

Sanders won unions 54-46, a key demographic in the industrial Rust Belt.

Sanders swept all counties in Wisconsin but one. He was victorious in the southeast 55-45, in the southwest 62-38, and in rural northeastern and northwestern Wisconsin 57-42. He carried the major cities of Madison, which has a younger electorate, as well as Eau Claire, Green Bay, Oshkosh, and Kenosha. Clinton won in Milwaukee 51-48, likely thanks to her ardent African-American support.[22]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Wisconsin Official Primary Results" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-10-10. Retrieved 2016-06-16.
  2. ^ a b Patrick Marley (April 6, 2016). "Rebecca Bradley beats JoAnne Kloppenburg in high court race". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  3. ^ Michele Gorman (April 5, 2016). "How to follow voting results in Wisconsin". Newsweek. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  4. ^ "Wisconsin Democratic primary, 2016". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  5. ^ "Candidates on ballot: 2016 spring election and presidential preference vote" (PDF). Wisconsin Government Accountability Board. March 29, 2016. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  6. ^ "ARC Wisconsin Poll April 1-3, 2016". Retrieved 2016-04-04.
  7. ^ "Wisconsin Feels the Bern While Cruz has Momentum Going into Primaries" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-04-04.
  8. ^ "CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerWisconsin". Retrieved 2016-04-03.
  9. ^ "FOX Business Network Poll: Sanders Tops Clinton by Five in Wisconsin". Retrieved 2016-03-31.
  10. ^ "Loras College Poll finds Cruz tops Trump, Clinton leads Sanders, tight race for state supreme court in Wisconsin". Retrieved 2016-04-02.
  11. ^ "Sanders leads in Wisconsin; GOP Race Close; VA Privatization Issue Hurts Johnson" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-03-31.
  12. ^ "Marquette Law School Poll – March 24-28, 2016" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-03-30.
  13. ^ "EMERSON POLL: WISCONSIN PRIMARY IN PLAY FOR BOTH PARTIES; CRUZ LEADS TRUMP BY A POINT; CLINTON UP 6 OVER SANDERS; CRUZ FARES BETTER THAN TRUMP IN GENERAL AGAINST CLINTON" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-03-24.
  14. ^ "@MULawPoll: In Dem prez race in WI, it's Sanders 44%, Clinton 43%. In @mulawpoll in January, it was Clinton 45%, Sanders 43%. #mulawpoll". Twitter. February 25, 2016. Retrieved February 25, 2016.
  15. ^ "For Democrats in WI: Hillary Clinton 45%, Bernie Sanders 43%, Martin O'Malley 1% among those intending to vote". Twitter. January 28, 2016. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  16. ^ "New Marquette Law School Poll finds Carson, Trump and Rubio atop tight Wisconsin GOP primary race".
  17. ^ "The Wisconsin Survey fall 2015 | The Wisconsin Survey fall 2015" (PDF). Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  18. ^ "Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker job approval at 37 percent, following presidential run | Marquette Law School Poll". law.marquette.edu. Retrieved 2015-09-30.
  19. ^ "Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker, Clinton leading primary fields among Wisconsin voters | Marquette Law School Poll". law.marquette.edu. Retrieved 2015-08-20.
  20. ^ "Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker job approval down | Marquette Law School Poll". law.marquette.edu. Retrieved 2015-07-09.
  21. ^ The Green Papers
  22. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-10-18.