2018 Kansas gubernatorial election

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Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018

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  Kris Kobach official photo (cropped).jpg Orman52414D4-536 (1).jpeg
Nominee Laura Kelly Kris Kobach Greg Orman
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Running mate Lynn Rogers Wink Hartman John Doll
Popular vote 506,727 453,645 68,590
Percentage 48.0% 43.0% 6.5%

Kansas Governor Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County Results
Kelly:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Kobach:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election

Jeff Colyer
Republican

Elected Governor

Laura Kelly
Democratic

The 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next Governor of Kansas. Democratic nominee Laura Kelly was elected, defeating Republican nominee Kris Kobach and an independent candidate, Greg Orman. Republican Governor Sam Brownback was term-limited and could not seek reelection to a third consecutive term, but can re-enter as a candidate in 2022. On July 26, 2017, Brownback was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as United States Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. Brownback was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 24, 2018.[1] On January 31, 2018[2] Brownback resigned the governorship and Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer succeeded him.[3] Colyer is eligible to seek a full term and he announced his candidacy prior to becoming Governor of Kansas. In the August 7 primary, Colyer ran against CPA and incumbent Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer; Topeka doctor and 2006 Republican Kansas gubernatorial nominee Jim Barnett; and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.

On August 7, 2018, Kobach defeated Colyer in the Republican gubernatorial primary by an initial margin of 191 votes,[4] a lead that increased to 361 votes by August 14, although discrepancies in some counties needed resolution and provisional and absentee ballots may not have been counted in some counties.[5][6][7] Colyer conceded the Republican nomination on August 14.[8] Democratic State Senator Laura Kelly easily won the Democratic nomination.[9] Independent Greg Orman, who finished second in the 2014 U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, ran for governor, again as an independent candidate.[10]

Given that Kansas is the only state which has no gubernatorial statutory qualifications whatsoever in its constitution, seven teenagers, including one who has never even been to the state of Kansas, ran for the office in this election cycle.[11] A debate took place on September 5 between the three candidates that consistently polled above 5%.[12] Polls in late August had Kelly and Kobach running close with Orman polling in the single digits.[13]

Laura Kelly's win continued a streak of party turnover for Governor of Kansas, as Kansas has not elected two consecutive governors of the same party since William Avery won in 1964, and neither major party has held the governorship for longer than eight consecutive years since John McCuish left office in 1957.[14]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

  • Wink Hartman, businessman and candidate for KS-04 in 2010[26] (running for lieutenant governor)[27] Hartman joined Kris Kobach's campaign as his Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidate.

Endorsements[edit]

Jeff Colyer
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jim
Barnett
Jeff
Colyer
Wink
Hartman
Kris
Kobach
Ken
Selzer
Other Undecided
Remington (R) August 3–5, 2018 2,769 ± 2.0% 14% 34% 32% 9% 3%[37] 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 30 – August 2, 2018 1,546 ± 2.4% 11% 36% 43% 5% 4%[37]
Remington (R) August 2, 2018 859 ± 3.3% 13% 32% 32% 9% 3%[37] 11%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) July 24–26, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 11% 25% 34% 8% 2%[38] 20%
Remington (R) May 14–15, 2018 1,441 ± 2.6% 9% 29% 27% 5% 30%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) March 15–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 10% 18% 31% 4% 36%
Remington (R) February 13–14, 2018 1,806 ± 2.3% 8% 23% 5% 21% 3% 3%[39] 37%
Moore Information (R) February 11, 2018 20% 6% 26% 11% 38%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Kobach—50–60%
  Kobach—40–50%
  Kobach—<40%
  Kobach/Colyer tie—40–50%
  Colyer—<40%
  Colyer—40–50%
  Colyer—50–60%
  Colyer—70–80%
  Selzer—<40%
Republican primary results[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kris Kobach 128,838 40.62
Republican Jeff Colyer (incumbent) 128,488 40.51
Republican Jim Barnett 27,993 8.83
Republican Ken Selzer 24,807 7.82
Republican Patrick Kucera 3,212 1.01
Republican Tyler Ruzich 2,276 0.72
Republican Joseph Tutera Jr. 1,559 0.49
Total votes 317,173 100.0

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

  • Arden Andersen, physician[43]
    • Running mate: Dale Cowsert, businessman
  • Jack Bergeson, high school student[44]
    • Running mate: Alexander Cline, high school student[44]
  • Carl Brewer, former Mayor of Wichita[45]
    • Running mate: Chris Morrow, former mayor of Gardner[46]
  • Josh Svaty, former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture and former state representative[47]
    • Running mate: Katrina Gier Lewison, Manhattan-Ogden USD 383 Board of Education member, veteran

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Josh Svaty
Statewide and local politicians

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Arden
Andersen
Jack
Bergeson
Carl
Brewer
Laura
Kelly
Josh
Svaty
Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Kelly) June 5–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 3% 2% 22% 35% 12% 25%
25% 44% 12% 20%

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Laura Kelly 78,746 51.5
Democratic Carl Brewer 30,693 20.1
Democratic Josh Svaty 26,722 17.5
Democratic Arden Andersen 12,845 8.4
Democratic Jack Bergeson 3,850 2.5
Total votes 152,856 100.0

Independent candidates[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Ilan Cohen, high school student from Maryland[60]
  • Aaron Coleman, college student (write-in)[61]
  • Max Correa, college student from North Carolina [62]
  • Joe Larry Hunter, former inmate[63][64]
  • Rick Kloos[65]
    • Running mate: Nathaniel Kloos, son of Rick Kloos[61]
  • Greg Orman, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[53][66]
  • Victor Redko, McGill University student[68][69]
  • Jared Rogers, University of Pennsylvania student[70]
  • Nicholas Schrieber, college student from Delaware[71]
    • Running mate: Matthew Ueckermann, college student from Maryland[71]
  • Conner Shelton, college student from Pennsylvania[72]

Endorsements[edit]

Libertarian convention[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

  • Jeff Caldwell, executive committee member for the Libertarian Party of Kansas[73]
    • Running mate: Mary Gerlt

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[77] Tossup October 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[78] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[79] Lean D November 5, 2018
Real Clear Politics[80] Tossup October 30, 2018
Daily Kos[81] Tossup November 2, 2018
Fox News[82] Tossup October 30, 2018
Politico[83] Tossup November 2, 2018
Governing[84] Tossup November 2, 2018
The Washington Post[85] Tossup October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[86] Tossup November 2, 2018

Debates[edit]

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Laura
Kelly (D)
Greg
Orman (I)
Kris
Kobach (R)
KCPT September 5, 2018 [87] Invited Invited Invited

Endorsements[edit]

Laura Kelly (D)
Federal politicians
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and news websites
Kris Kobach (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Greg Orman (I)
Organisations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kris
Kobach
(R)
Laura
Kelly
(D)
Greg
Orman
(I)
Jeff
Caldwell
(L)
Other Undecided
Emerson College October 26–28, 2018 976 ± 3.3% 44% 43% 8% 1% 4%
Ipsos October 17–27, 2018 986 ± 3.6% 41% 43% 9% 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies) October 19–20, 2018 698 ± 3.7% 41% 41% 10% 2% 0%[137] 6%
Remington (R) September 30 – October 1, 2018 1,680 ± 2.4% 41% 42% 10% 2% 1%[138] 4%
Emerson College September 26–28, 2018 938 ± 3.5% 37% 36% 9% 3% 15%
Fort Hays State University August 22 – September 25, 2018 324 36% 40% 10% 5%
Civiqs (D-Crawford County Dems) September 21–24, 2018 1,178 ± 3.4% 39% 41% 9% 5% 0%[137] 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Pottawatomie County Dems) September 12–13, 2018 618 39% 38% 9% 1% 2%[139] 12%
Public Policy Polling (D-KNEA PAC) August 24–26, 2018 877 39% 38% 9% 1% 2%[139] 11%
Remington (R) July 19–20, 2018 1,189 ± 2.9% 35% 36% 12% 17%

Results[edit]

Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018[140]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Laura Kelly 506,727 48.01% +1.88%
Republican Kris Kobach 453,645 42.98% -6.84%
Independent Greg Orman 68,590 6.50% N/A
Libertarian Jeff Caldwell 20,020 1.90% -2.15%
Independent Rick Kloos 6,584 0.62% N/A
Total votes 1,055,566 100.0% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

References[edit]

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  121. ^ Kris W. Kobach. "It was my honor to work with former Attorney General John Ashcroft at the Justice Department to secure our country. Thank you General Ashcroft for your support of my campaign. You can watch the video here. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  122. ^ Kris W. Kobach. "Thank you Rep. @RonEstesKS for your endorsement! You've worked hard as state treasurer & in Congress to return money to taxpayers, including with the Trump tax cuts. We share the same Kansas values and I look forward to working with you so we can grow Kansas. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  123. ^ Kris W. Kobach. "Sen. Pat Roberts is a fighter for Kansas families and farmers and I am honored to have his endorsement. He knows it is important for KS to have a governor who will work with President Trump to make KS an affordable place to do business, create jobs & raise a family. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
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  128. ^ Kris W. Kobach. "Thank you Goodland Mayor Brian Linin for your endorsement today during the #RemainRed bus tour stop in Goodland. You have positioned Goodland for long term success and I look forward to working with you as governor! #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
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  130. ^ Woodall, Hunter (October 16, 2017). "Donald Trump Jr. coming to Kansas to campaign for Kobach". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved November 10, 2017.
  131. ^ "Ann Coulter on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
  132. ^ Starling, Nick (June 24, 2018). "Ted Nugent campaigns with KS Gov candidate Kris Kobach". Retrieved July 30, 2018.
  133. ^ Kris W. Kobach. "America's Toughest Sheriff, Joe Arpaio, endorses #TeamKobach. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  134. ^ Kite, Allison (August 31, 2018). "Kris Kobach wins support from labor union that previously backed Democrats". The Kansas City Star.
  135. ^ "NRA Endorses Kobach for Kansas Governor". NRA-ILA. September 21, 2018.
  136. ^ "KANSAS CHAMBER PAC ENDORSES IN GOVERNOR AND ATTORNEY GENERAL RACES". Kansas Chamber.
  137. ^ a b Rick Kloos (I) with 0%
  138. ^ Rick Kloos (I) with 1%
  139. ^ a b Rick Kloos (I) with 2%
  140. ^ http://www.kssos.org/elections/18elec/2018_General_Election_Official_Votes_Cast.pdf

External links[edit]

Debates
Official campaign websites