2018 Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly election

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Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, 2018

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All 230 seats in the Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Turnout75.05% Increase 3.92% [1]
  Majority party Minority party
  KamalNath.jpg Shivraj Singh Chauhan (cropped 2).jpg
Leader Kamal Nath Shivraj Singh Chouhan
Party INC BJP
Leader since 2018 2005
Leader's seat Chhindwara (By-election) Budhni
Last election 58 165
Seats won 114 109
Seat change Increase 56 Decrease 56
Percentage 40.9% 41.0 %
Swing Increase4.59% Decrease3.88%

Wahlkreise zur Vidhan Sabha von Madhya Pradesh.svg
Election Map (by Constituencies)

CM before election

Shivraj Singh Chouhan
BJP

CM after election

Kamal Nath
INC


Elections to the Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly were held on 28 November 2018 to elect members of the 230 constituencies in Madhya Pradesh. It is believed that the election was a direct political battle between the BJP and the INC. While the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government will try to win for consecutive 4th term, the INC will fight for winning the state after 2003. The election led to a hung assembly, with the INC emerging as the single largest party and the BJP winning the popular vote.[2]

Background[edit]

The tenure of Madhya Pradesh[3] Legislative Assembly ends on 7 January 2019.[4]

Schedule[edit]

Election dates are announced on 6 October 2018 and voting is on 28 November 2018.

Result declare on 11 December 2018

Event Date Day
Date for Nominations 2 Nov 2018 Friday
Last Date for filing Nominations 9 Nov 2018 Friday
Date for scrutiny of nominations 12 Nov 2018 Monday
Last date for withdrawal of candidatures 14 Nov 2018 Wednesday
Date of poll 28 Nov 2018 Wednesday
Date of counting 11 Dec 2018 Tuesday
Date before which the election shall be completed 13 Dec 2018 Thursday


Opinion polls[edit]

The opinion polls show a tough election battle between the BJP and the INC.

Date Polling agency BJP INC Others Lead
09 November 2018 Timesnow - CNX 122 90 18 32
09 November 2018 ABP News- CSDS 116 105 09 11
09 November 2018 Cvoter 107 116 07 9
02 November 2018 ABP News- C Voter Survey 106 118 06 12
25 October 2018 IndiaTV - CNX 128 85 17 43
17 October 2018 ABP News- C Voter 108 122  – 14
10 October 2018 News Nation 111 109 10 2
9 October 2018 Times Now - Chrome DM 108 103 19 5
9 October 2018 Times Now - Warroom Strategies 142 77 11 65
14 August 2018 ABP News- C Voter 106 117 7 11
4 April 2018 IBC24 101 119 10 18
Average as on 9 November 2018 114 106 10 08

Exit polls[edit]

Most exit polls predicted a "tight finish" between the BJP and the INC. According of Poll of Polls, There is a little edge to BJP over INC, however No party gets majority to form the Government.

Polling agency BJP INC Others Lead
CNX– Times Now 126 89 15 37
News 24-Pace Media 103 115 12 12
News Nation 110 107 13 03
C Voter – Republic TV 106 118 06 12
Jan Ki Baat– Republic TV 118 105 07 13
CSDS – ABP News 94 126 10 32
Axis My India – India Today 111 113 06 02
VDPA Associates 135 88 07 47
India News- NETA 106 112 12 06
News 18- Surjit Bhalla 130 90 10 40
Today's Chanakya 103 125 02 22
Poll of Polls 113 108 09 05

Results[edit]

Seats and vote-share[edit]

The election led to a hung assembly, with the INC emerging as the largest party, with 114 seats, but failing to win a majority. The popular vote was won by the BJP, with 41.0% of total votes polled. An analysis of the result showed that the BJP lost 7 seats with very small margin (<1000) against the Congress.[5] The seat and vote share was as follows -:[6]

Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
INC + 15,595,153 40.9% Increase4.59% 114 Increase56
BJP 15,642,980 41% Decrease3.88% 109 Decrease56
BSP 1,911,642 5% Decrease1.29% 2 Decrease2
SP 496,025 1.3% Increase0.1% 1 Increase1
Independents 2,218,230 5.8% Increase0.42% 4 Increase1
None of the Above 542,295 1.4%
Total 100.00 230 ±0

Government Formation[edit]

Counting of votes started on 11 December 2018, results were fluctuating throughout the day. On 12 December 2018 final figure of Result declared. INC became single largest party with 114 seats. BJP gave a tough fight by winning 109 seats. INC claimed support of Samajwadi Party's 1 MLA, Bahujan Samajwadi Party's 2 MLA and 4 Independent MLA . Due to no majority Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Chief Minister Of Madhya Pradesh resigned on 12 December 2018. Kamal Nath took oath on 17 December 2018 as new Chief Minister Of Madhya Pradesh and with this, INC came back to the power in State after 15 years

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Madhya Pradesh: Women voted more than men in 44 constituencies". Ramendra Singh. The Times of India. 13 December 2018. Retrieved 13 December 2018.
  2. ^ "MP cliffhanger ends; Congress single-largest party with 114 , BJP gets 109". The Times of India. 12 December 2018. Retrieved 12 December 2018.
  3. ^ "MP Election 2018". Rajasthan Patrika. Retrieved 16 November 2018.
  4. ^ "Terms of the Houses". Election Commission of India. Retrieved 11 May 2018.
  5. ^ https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/the-curse-of-4-337-on-shivraj-1408078-2018-12-12
  6. ^ News 18: Madhya Pradesh Election Results

External links[edit]