2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2018

← 2016 November 6, 2018 2020 →
  Christopher T Sununu.jpg MollyKelly (cropped).jpg
Nominee Chris Sununu Molly Kelly
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 302,764 262,359
Percentage 52.8% 45.7%

New Hampshire gubernatorial election by county, 2018.svg
County Results

Sununu:      50–60%      60–70%

Kelly:      40–50%      50–60%

Governor before election

Chris Sununu
Republican

Elected Governor

Chris Sununu
Republican

The 2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu won re-election to a second term.

Primary elections were held on September 11, 2018. The gubernatorial election was coincident with races for the state legislature and the United States House of Representatives.

Background[edit]

Along with Vermont, the state of New Hampshire is one of only two states where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Chris Sununu was elected in the 2016 election.[1]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Sununu—>90%
Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chris Sununu (incumbent) 91,025 98.3
Republican Molly Kelly (write-in) 577 0.6
Republican Steve Marchand (write-in) 160 0.2
Republican Jiletta Jarvis (write-in) 90 0.0
Republican Aaron Day (write-in) 39 0.0
Scattering 692 0.7
Total votes 92,583 100.0

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mark
Connolly
Molly
Kelly
Steve
Marchand
Other Undecided
Suffolk University April 26–30, 2018 401 21% 19% 58%
TargetPoint/GQR March 8–15, 2018 346 ± 5.3% 9% 17% 11% 4% 58%

Primary results[edit]

Results by county:
  Kelly—70–80%
  Kelly—60–70%
Democratic primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Molly Kelly 80,598 65.5
Democratic Steve Marchand 41,612 33.8
Democratic Chris Sununu (write-in) 563 0.5
Democratic Jiletta Jarvis (write-in) 17 0.0
Democratic Aaron Day (write-in) 8 0.0
Scattering 167 0.1
Total votes 122,965 100.0

Libertarian primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Primary results[edit]

Results by county:
  Jarvis—60–70%
  Jarvis—50–60%
  Jarvis—40–50%
  Day—50–60%
  Day—40–50%
Libertarian Primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jilletta Jarvis 576 51.9
Libertarian Aaron Day 487 43.9
Libertarian Chris Sununu (write-in) 21 1.9
Libertarian Molly Kelly (write-in) 9 0.8
Libertarian Steve Marchand (write-in) 6 0.5
Scattering 11 1.0
Total votes 1,110 100.0

Jarvis had campaigned actively since 2017. She was active on social media and traveled around the state to campaign. Jarvis regularly interacted with voters through live Q&A sessions over Facebook Live. Aaron Day announced his bid for governor shortly before the filing period began in June 2018. Day campaigned mostly on social media and purchased Facebook advertisements. On primary day, he sent a "meme truck" - a truck with large screens on it to display political memes - to several polling places across the state. On primary night, Jarvis and Day traded the lead several times before Jarvis began to pull ahead. The results were not declared by the Secretary of State's office until the morning of September 13, 2018, due to several outlying precincts.

On primary day, there were multiple reports of voter suppression and negligence by poll workers when voters attempted to cast a Libertarian ballot. Many voters reported that poll workers refused to give them Libertarian Party ballots. There were also reports of poll workers who encouraged Libertarian voters to vote in the Republican or Democratic primary instead. Many precincts did not adequately display Libertarian ballots alongside Republican and Democratic ballots, and some precincts only offered Libertarian ballots "on request."

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Lean R October 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[16] Lean R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Lean R October 25, 2018
RealClearPolitics[18] Lean R October 31, 2018
Daily Kos[19] Likely R October 26, 2018
Fox News[20][a] Lean R October 30, 2018
Politico[21] Lean R October 30, 2018
Governing[22] Lean R October 30, 2018
The Washington Post[23] Lean R November 2, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[24] Likely R November 1, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements[edit]

Molly Kelly (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Local and statewide politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Chris Sununu (R)
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Chris
Sununu (R)
Molly
Kelly (D)
Jilletta
Jarvis (L)
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire November 1–4, 2018 630 ± 3.9% 46% 46% 2% 0% 6%
Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party) October 27–29, 2018 901 47% 46%
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 1,139 ± 3.7% 51% 43% 1% 5%
University of New Hampshire October 10–18, 2018 499 ± 4.4% 50% 39% 4% 7%
Saint Anselm College October 10–15, 2018 454 ± 4.6% 49% 39% 1% 0% 12%
Emerson College October 10–12, 2018 625 ± 4.2% 51% 35% 1% 14%
American Research Group September 21–26, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 49% 44% 0% 7%
University of New Hampshire August 2–19, 2018 389 ± 5.0% 48% 32% 5% 16%
Suffolk University April 26–30, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 48% 27% 4% 21%
University of New Hampshire April 13–22, 2018 379 ± 5.0% 51% 24% 2% 4% 20%

Results[edit]

New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2018[57]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Chris Sununu (incumbent) 302,764 52.78% +3.94%
Democratic Molly Kelly 262,359 45.74% -0.83%
Libertarian Jilletta Jarvis 8,197 1.43% -2.88%
n/a Write-ins 282 0.05% -0.23%
Total votes 573,602 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

References[edit]

  1. ^ Ramer, Holly (November 9, 2016). "Sununu chosen as N.H. governor". Concord Monitor. Associated Press. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  2. ^ Bookman, Todd (October 4, 2017). "To No One's Surprise, Sununu Confirms He's Running for Re-Election". New Hampshire Public Radio. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
  3. ^ a b c [1]
  4. ^ DiStaso, John (2018-04-05). "NH Primary Source: Molly Kelly to announce gubernatorial decision next week". WMUR. Retrieved 2018-04-06.
  5. ^ Tuohy, Dan (April 3, 2017). "Marchand says he's running for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved April 7, 2017.
  6. ^ Sexton, Adam (March 11, 2018). "Feltes rules out run for governor". WMUR. Retrieved March 12, 2018.
  7. ^ DiStaso, John (July 20, 2017). "Pappas heads north, says it's about the ice cream". WMUR. Retrieved September 27, 2017.
  8. ^ DiStaso, John (November 9, 2017). "Democrat Pappas announces candidacy for 1st District US House seat". WMUR-TV. Retrieved November 9, 2017.
  9. ^ LANDRIGAN, KEVIN (March 13, 2018). "Van Ostern to challenge Gardner for Secretary of State position". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved July 22, 2018.
  10. ^ Solomon, David (September 27, 2017). "Executive Councilor Volinsky won't run for governor in 2018". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved September 27, 2017.
  11. ^ "Free State Project Early Movers: FSP Chairman Aaron Day". 12 February 2016. Retrieved 12 September 2018.
  12. ^ DiStaso, John (7 June 2018). "NH Primary Source: Libertarian Party of NH may have primary for governor". Retrieved 12 September 2018.
  13. ^ DiStaso, John (April 3, 2017). "Updated NH Primary Source". WMUR. Retrieved April 22, 2017.
  14. ^ Freeman, Ian (March 25, 2017). "Libertarian Jilletta Jarvis Announces Campaign for NH Governor in 2018!". Free Keene. Retrieved April 22, 2017.
  15. ^ "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  16. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  17. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  18. ^ "2018 Governor Races". Retrieved September 11, 2018.
  19. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  20. ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
  21. ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  22. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
  23. ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  24. ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  25. ^ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote:". Twitter.
  26. ^ Hillary Clinton. ".@NHMollyKelly is an experienced leader and tireless fighter running for New Hampshire governor. She'll fight to improve economic security for working families and expand opportunity for all". Twitter.
  27. ^ Rogers, Josh (June 5, 2018). "Hassan Endorses Kelly For Governor". nhpr.org/. New Hampshire Public Radio.
  28. ^ DiStaso, John (May 2, 2018). "NH Primary Source: Shaheen endorses Molly Kelly for governor". WMUR.
  29. ^ Elizabeth Warren. "Nobody should have to live 1 family emergency away from financial disaster. Help Molly Kelly fight back in NH:". Twitter.
  30. ^ Molly Kelly. "Thanks to @CoryBooker for joining me at a @NHYoungDems rally at UNH. Too many young people are leaving NH because they don't see opportunities -- that's got to change. I'll listen to young people and enact friendly public policies that encourage them to stay in our great state". Twitter.
  31. ^ Staff, Sentinel (April 20, 2018). "Political notebook: Kuster endorses Kelly for governor". SentinelSource.com.
  32. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Open Letter in Support of Molly Kelly for Governor" (PDF).
  33. ^ "Mayor Joyce Craig Endorses Molly Kelly For NH Governor". NH LABOR NEWS. June 14, 2018.
  34. ^ a b c d e DiStaso, John (April 12, 2018). "NH Primary Source first: Top Democratic state lawmakers endorse Kelly for governor". WMUR.
  35. ^ DiStaso, John (July 26, 2018). "NH Primary Source: State Sen. Hennessy shifts support from Marchand to Kelly". WMUR.
  36. ^ "Senator Donna Soucy Announces Support For Molly Kelly For NH Governor". NH LABOR NEWS. 6 September 2018.
  37. ^ Misha Collins [@mishacollins] (April 13, 2018). "Yes! Molly is on #MishasList too!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  38. ^ "Sen. Molly Kelly's Commitment To Public Education Earns Support From AFT-NH". NH LABOR NEWS. 7 August 2018.
  39. ^ Padellaro, Jeffrey (May 10, 2018). "Teamsters back Kelly in first union endorsement of governor's race". Teamsters Local 633.
  40. ^ Tuttle, Megan (June 15, 2018). "NEA-NH Announces Recommendation of Molly Kelly for Governor". NEA-NH.
  41. ^ "New Hampshire AFL-CIO Candidate Endorsements | New Hampshire AFL-CIO". nhaflcio.org. New Hampshire AFL-CIO. September 22, 2018.
  42. ^ Gulla, Richard (September 26, 2018). "Press release: Molly Kelly for Governor". www.seiu1984.org. SEA/SEIU Local 1984 Board of Directors.
  43. ^ Schriock, Stephanie (April 13, 2018). "EMILY's List Endorses Molly Kelly for Governor of New Hampshire". www.emilyslist.org.
  44. ^ DiStaso, John (September 25, 2018). "End Citizens United PAC endorses Molly Kelly for governor". WMUR.
  45. ^ "Endorsed Candidates - Fight For Reform". Fight For Reform.
  46. ^ Chooljian, Lauren (March 23, 2018). "Pence of Sununu: 'He's a Man Like President Trump ... 'a Man of Action'". New Hampshire Public Radio.
  47. ^ "Chris Christie visits NH, blasts Penn. officials for not joining Trump after synagogue attack". Associated Press. November 1, 2018.
  48. ^ DiStaso, John (June 22, 2018). "Sununu receives earliest ever NH Police Association endorsement". wmur.com.
  49. ^ DiStaso, John (August 6, 2018). "NH Troopers Association endorses Sununu for reelection". wmur.com.
  50. ^ "Political notebook: State firefighters union throws weight behind Sununu". The Keene Sentinel. September 27, 2018.
  51. ^ Chris Sununu. "It is an honor to receive the endorsement of @NFIB — the nation's leading small business association!". Twitter.
  52. ^ Ropeik, Annie (October 16, 2018). "Electrical Workers Union Endorses Sununu For Governor". New Hampshire Public Radio.
  53. ^ "Sununu for Governor: Earning a second term". Union Leader. October 12, 2018.
  54. ^ a b c "Editorial endorsement: Gov. Sununu deserves a second term". seacoastonline.com. October 28, 2018. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
  55. ^ "Editorial endorsement: Gov. Sununu deserves a second term". Foster's Daily Democrat. October 28, 2018. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
  56. ^ "Telegraph endorses Sununu". Nashua Telegraph. November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.
  57. ^ http://sos.nh.gov/18GenResults.aspx

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites