2018 Ontario general election

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2018 Ontario general election

← 2014 June 7, 2018 (2018-06-07) 43rd →

124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout56.67% (Increase5.38pp)[1]
  First party Second party
  Doug Ford in Toronto - 2018 (41065995960) (cropped).jpg Horwath infobox.PNG
Leader Doug Ford Andrea Horwath
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 March 7, 2009
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Hamilton Centre
Last election 28 seats, 31.25% 21 seats, 23.75%
Seats before 27 18
Seats won 76 40
Seat change Increase49 Increase22
Popular vote 2,326,632 1,929,649
Percentage 40.50% 33.59%
Swing Increase9.25pp Increase9.84pp

  Third party Fourth party
  Hon Kathleen Wynne MPP Premier of Ontario (cropped2).jpg MikeSchreinerGuelphFeb2012 (cropped).jpg
Leader Kathleen Wynne Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since January 26, 2013 May 16, 2009
Leader's seat Don Valley West Guelph
Last election 58 seats, 38.65% 0 seats, 4.84%
Seats before 55 0
Seats won 7 1
Seat change Decrease48 Increase1
Popular vote 1,124,218 264,487
Percentage 19.57% 4.60%
Swing Decrease19.08pp Decrease0.24pp

Ontario general election 2018 - Results by Riding.svg
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead by the result in each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.

Premier before election

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

Premier after election

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative

The 2018 Ontario general election was held on June 7, 2018, to elect the 124 members of the 42nd Parliament of Ontario.[2] The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, led by Doug Ford, won a majority government with 76 of the 124 seats in the legislature. The Ontario New Democratic Party, led by Andrea Horwath, formed the Official Opposition. The Ontario Liberal Party, led by incumbent Premier Kathleen Wynne, lost official party status in recording both the worst result in the party's 161-year history and the worst result for any incumbent governing party in Ontario. The Green Party of Ontario won a seat for the first time in their history, while the Trillium Party of Ontario lost its single seat gained by a floor-crossing during the 41st Parliament. Twenty-four other parties and numerous independent candidates also received votes.

Background[edit]

Redistribution of seats[edit]

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015[3] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,[4] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.[5][6] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.[7]

The new districts have been criticized as undemocratic, as they have a population of around 30,000 people compared with over 120,000 people in some southern Ontario constituencies. National Post columnist Josh Dehaas suggested that the small population sizes of the ridings might violate the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.[8]

In September 2017, a research firm analyzed the impact of redistribution if the boundaries had been in effect for the previous election.[9]

Change of fixed election date[edit]

Under legislation passed in 2005, Ontario elections were to be held on "the first Thursday in October in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", subject to the Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario's power to call an election earlier.[10] As the current government had a majority, the passage of a non-confidence motion was not a likely option for calling an early election, though Premier Kathleen Wynne stated in June 2015 that she would likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in spring 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days.[11]

To put this on a statutory footing, in October 2016 Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduced a bill in the Legislative Assembly which, in part, included moving the election date to "the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election",[2] and it came into effect in December 2016.[12]

Prelude to campaign[edit]

The Ontario Liberal Party attempted to win their fifth consecutive general election, dating back to 2003. The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario won their first election since 1999, and the Ontario New Democratic Party attempted to win their second election (having previously won in 1990). Numerous other extra-parliamentary political parties also vied for votes.

The Liberals under Kathleen Wynne headed into the 2018 campaign trailing far behind the Progressive Conservatives, led by former Toronto City Councillor Doug Ford. The Liberals' standing with voters had been badly hurt when they partially privatized Hydro One in 2015, after campaigning against it in the 2014 election, as well as rising criticism over "ballooning provincial debt, high electricity prices and costly, politically expedient decisions".[13][14] In early April, the CBC published their analysis of aggregate polls showing that Ford and the Progressive Conservatives were ahead of the other parties averaging 42.1% support, compared to 27.2% for the governing Liberals, 23.4% for the NDP and 5.7% for the Greens[15] and with 11 Liberal MPPs announcing they would not be running for re-election or having already resigned their seats in the months leading up to the election.[16]

According to Wynne, voters were offered a "stark choice", between "cutting and removing supports from people" with "billions in cuts", which she alleged the Progressive Conservatives would do if they won the election, and expanding investments in social programs such as prescription drugs and childcare, which the Liberal platform promised.[17]

In March 2018, the Liberals tabled a pre-election budget in the provincial legislature which promised billions of dollars in new spending for free childcare and expanded coverage for dental care but replaced the government's previous balanced budget with a $6.7 billion deficit projected to last until 2024–2025.[18] PC leader Doug Ford called the budget a "spending spree".[19]

Mood of the voters[edit]

According to Toronto Star columnist Susan Delacourt, voters were motivated by a desire for change—such desire being more driven by emotion than by ideology—and one researcher estimated that more than half of the electorate was undecided in who they were likely to vote for.[20] The Huffington Post reported that half of voters were basing their vote intentions on how best to block the party they oppose.[21]

In February 2018, Campaign Research conducted a gap analysis on voter intentions in Ontario, and determined the following:

Voter gap analysis by party (February 2018)[22]
Liberal PC NDP Highlights
64%
6%
6%
10%
13%
51%
7%
6%
10%
26%
61%
9%
13%
6%
11%
  • PCs had the lowest proportion of respondents (51%) not willing to vote for them at all, while the Liberals had the highest such proportion (64%)
  • At 13%, the Liberals' "hard support" was only half that for the PCs
  • For PCs, the strength of "hard support" increases with age, and older demographics tend to be more reliable voters
  • Conversely, such support for the Liberals and NDP significantly declines with age, with almost ¾ of those aged 55+ not willing to vote for them at all

     = Not voting for party; not considered
     = Not voting for party; shared consideration
     = Not voting for party; exclusive consideration
     = Will vote for party; others considered
     = Will vote for party; no others considered

Events leading up to the election (2014–2018)[edit]

Date
June 12, 2014 The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces his intention to step down following the selection of his successor.[23]
July 2, 2014 Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.[24] Simcoe—Grey MPP Jim Wilson is named interim leader.[25]
July 24, 2014 The Liberals pass their May 1 budget in its final reading.
May 9, 2015 Patrick Brown, the Conservative federal MP for Barrie, is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.[26]
September 24, 2015 Ontario Provincial Police lay charges in relation to the Sudbury by-election scandal.[27]
November 1, 2016 Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (CEO and director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection.[28] Sorbara announced that she will step down from the campaign.[29]
January 24, 2018 CTV News reports that Progressive Conservative Party leader Patrick Brown is accused by two women of committing sexual misconduct. Brown denies the allegations.[30]
January 25, 2018 Patrick Brown resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.[31][32]
January 26, 2018 Progressive Conservative Party caucus chooses Nipissing MPP Vic Fedeli as interim leader.[33]
March 10, 2018 Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives on the third ballot of the party's leadership election.[34] Fedeli continues as Leader of the Opposition for legislative purposes until the election due to Ford not having a seat in the Legislature.[35]
April 11, 2018 First Leaders Debate hosted by the Jamaican Canadian Association. Andrea Horwath, Mike Schreiner, and Premier Kathleen Wynne were in attendance. [36]
April 16, 2018 The Ontario NDP release their full election platform.[37]
May 7, 2018 First televised debate hosted by CityNews: Toronto-focused debate with Ford, Horwath and Wynne[38]
May 9, 2018 Electoral Writ issued.[39]
May 11, 2018 Leaders' debate in Parry Sound.[40]
May 17, 2018 Candidate nominations close at 2 PM local time.[41]
May 26, 2018 Advance voting starts at voting locations and returning offices.[42][43]
May 27, 2018 Second televised debate, moderated by Steve Paikin and Farah Nasser, held at the Canadian Broadcasting Centre in Toronto and aired on CBC, CTV, Global, TVO, CPAC, CHCH and other outlets. Attended by Wynne, Ford, and Horwath.[44]
May 30, 2018 Advance voting ends at advance voting locations.[42]
June 1, 2018 Advance voting ends at returning offices.[42]
June 2, 2018 Premier Wynne concedes that the Liberals will not win the election.[45][46]
June 6, 2018 Special ballot voting at returning office or through home visit ends at 6:00 PM EST.[42]
June 7, 2018 Election day. Fixed-date of the 2018 provincial election.

Campaign period[edit]

Issues[edit]

2018 Ontario election – issues and respective party platforms[47][48][49][50][51][52]
Issue Liberal PC NDP
Budget
  • Standing by its last budget's assertion of six consecutive deficits, with a return to balance in 2024–25
  • Conduct a value-for-money audit of the government's spending
  • Conduct an independent commission of inquiry into the previous government's spending
  • Centralize government purchasing
  • Increase the Risk Management Program limit by $50 million annually
  • Eliminate the Jobs and Prosperity fund
  • There will be five consecutive deficits of between $5 billion and $2 billion.
Child care
  • Publically-funded child care for all Ontarians aged two-and-a-half to junior kindergarten age, regardless of income
  • Fund a sliding scale of tax rebates, providing up to $6,750 per child under 15 and giving low-income families as much as 75% of their child-care costs
  • Income-based scale for child care, providing publically-funded child care for families earning under $40,000 annually and public funding to reduce the cost of childcare to an average of $12 per day cost for those making over $40,000
Education
  • Modernize the curriculum and assessment of schools, from kindergarten to grade 12
  • $3 billion in capital grants over 10 years to post-secondary institutions
  • Replace the present curricula for sex education
  • Return to traditional mathematics education
  • Ban cell phones in all primary and secondary school classrooms
  • Limit funding to postsecondary institutions that do not respect free speech
  • Make mathematics training mandatory in teachers’ college
  • Increase funding for children with autism by $38 million
  • $16 billion in spending over 10 years on infrastructure and repairs at Ontario's schools
  • Cap kindergarten class sizes at 26 students
  • Abolish standardized EQAO testing
  • Give OSAP-qualified students non-repayable grants instead of loans
  • Remove interest from existing student loans and apply interest that has already been paid to the loan principal
Environment
  • Hire more conservation officers
  • Create an emissions-reduction fund to subsidize new technologies that reduce emissions
  • Increase funding for cleaning up garbage
  • Divert at least 25% of cap-and-trade revenue to help northern, rural and low-income Ontarians adapt to a lower-carbon lifestyle
  • Spend $50 million on a home-efficiency retrofit program
Healthcare
  • Create 30,000 new long-term care beds by 2028
  • Create a publically-funded universal pharmacare program for seniors
  • Hire 400 new mental health workers in schools
  • Create 30,000 new long-term care beds by 2028
  • Increase funding for mental health
  • Increase funding for autism treatment by $125 million per year
  • Create a publically-funded universal pharmacare program for everyone that covers approximately 125 medications
  • Create 40,000 new long-term care beds by 2028
  • Create 2,000 new hospital beds
  • Hire 4,500 new nurses
Electricity
  • Standing by its 2017 plan to defer rate increases through current borrowing
  • Will proceed to sell the Province's remaining 60% interest in Hydro One
  • Cut rates by 12%, over and above the Liberals' current 25% reduction
  • Fire the CEO and Board of Hydro One
  • Cancel energy contracts that are in the pre-construction stage
Regulation
  • Increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2019
  • End geographic price variations in car insurance rates
  • Keep the minimum wage at $14 per hour
  • Allow the sale of beer and wine in corner stores, grocery stores, and box stores
  • Reduce the minimum price of beer from $1.25 to $1
  • Increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2019
  • Allow illegal immigrants to access all government services and do not enforce immigration laws against them
  • Impose price controls on gasoline
Taxation
  • Proceed with last budget's simplification of rate structure for personal income tax
  • Raise taxes on cigarettes by $4 per carton
  • Increase taxes on people making over $95,000 per year
  • Reduce middle-class income tax rates by 20%
  • Eliminate income tax entirely for minimum-wage earners
  • Repeal the present cap and trade program
  • Challenge the federal carbon tax in court
  • Reduce the small business income tax rate by 8.7%
  • Reduce gasoline taxes by 10¢ per litre
  • Reduce diesel taxes by 10.3¢ per litre
  • Reduce the corporate income tax rate from 11.5% to 10.5%
  • Reduce aviation fuel taxes for Northern Ontario flights
  • Exempt the Royal Canadian Legion from being charged property tax
  • Raise corporate tax rate from 11.5% to 13%
  • Raise income taxes on people earning over $220,000 by 1%
  • Raise income taxes on people earning over $300,000 by 2%
Transportation
  • Fund $79 billion for various public-transit projects over 14 years
  • Build a Toronto-to-Windsor high-speed rail line
  • Fund an expansion of light rail O-Train in Ottawa
  • $5 billion in extra funding for new subways in Toronto
  • Upload ownership and construction of subway lines from the municipal government to the provincial government
  • Build the Relief Line subway line
  • Build the Sheppard Loop with Scarborough subway line
  • Build the Yonge Extension subway line
  • Build future crosstown expansions underground
  • Expand all-day two-way GO service Bowmanville and Kitchener
  • Finish construction of the Niagara GO Expansion
  • Restore operations of the Northlander in Northern Ontario
  • Fund an expansion of light rail O-Train in Ottawa
  • Ensure that the Scarborough Subway Extension to the Scarborough Town Centre will have three stops

Party slogans[edit]

Party English French Translation of French (unofficial)
 Liberal "Care over cuts"[54]
 PC "For the People"[55]
 New Democratic "Change for the better"[56] "Changeons pour le mieux"[57] Let's change for the better
 Green "People Powered Change"[58]
 Libertarian "The Party of Choice"[59]

Endorsements[edit]

Endorsements received by each party
Type Liberal PC NDP Green No endorsement
Media
Politicians and public figures
Unions and business associations
  • Ontario Convenience Stores Association[84]
  • Ottawa Police Association[85]
  • United Steelworkers Local 2251[86]

Candidates[edit]

Candidate nominations[edit]

In February 2018, the PC leadership overturned the nomination of candidates Karma Macgregor in Ottawa West—Nepean and Thenusha Parani in Scarborough Centre because of irregularities and allegations of ballot stuffing at their nomination meetings.[91] Both candidates denied these claims.[92] The nomination meetings were reorganized, and both candidates lost the nomination at those meetings. However, the PC leadership decided not to overturn the nomination meeting's result in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, where a similar situation took place, because of an ongoing police investigation on this situation.[93]

In March 2018, the NDP nominated Lyra Evans as their candidate in Ottawa—Vanier. Evans was the first openly transgender candidate nominated by a major party to run in an Ontario general election.[94][95]

Incumbents not running for reelection[edit]

Electoral District Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MPP
Brant (now Brantford-Brant)   Dave Levac[96] Ruby Toor   Will Bouma
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell   Grant Crack[97] Pierre Leroux   Amanda Simard
Guelph   Liz Sandals[98] Sly Castaldi   Mike Schreiner
Kenora—Rainy River   Sarah Campbell[99] Glen Archer   Greg Rickford
Kitchener-Conestoga   Michael Harris[100]   Mike Harris Jr.
London North Centre   Deb Matthews[98] Kate Graham   Terence Kernaghan
Markham-Unionville   Michael Chan[97] Amanda Yeung Collucci   Billy Pang
Parkdale—High Park   Cheri DiNovo[101] Bhutila Karpoche   Bhutila Karpoche
Mississauga—Erindale   Harinder Takhar[102] Riding dissolved
Pickering-Scarborough East   Tracy MacCharles[97] Riding dissolved
Scarborough Centre   Brad Duguid[103] Mazhar Shafiq   Christina Mitas
Simcoe North   Patrick Brown[104]   Jill Dunlop
Welland (now Niagara Centre)   Cindy Forster[105][106] Jeff Burch   Jeff Burch
York Centre   Monte Kwinter[107] Ramon Estaris   Roman Baber
York—Simcoe   Julia Munro[108] Caroline Mulroney   Caroline Mulroney
York West (now Humber River—Black Creek)   Mario Sergio[109] Deanna Sgro   Tom Rakocevic

Results[edit]

76 40 7 1
Progressive Conservative New Democratic Liberal Grn

Elections Ontario used electronic vote tabulator machines from Dominion Voting Systems for counting the ballots. Tabulators were deployed at 50 per cent of polling stations at a cost of CA$32,000,000.[110][111] This election was the first time Ontario used vote counting machines for a provincial election, although tabulators have been used in Ontario civic elections for more than 20 years, and also in a 2016 by-election in Whitby-Oshawa. The original paper ballots marked by voters will be kept for a year along with the digital scans of each ballot by the tabulator.[111]

Party Votes Seats
Progressive Conservative 2,326,632
40.50%
Increase 9.25pp
76 / 124 (61%)
New Democratic 1,929,649
33.59%
Increase 9.84pp
40 / 124 (32%)
Liberal 1,124,218
19.57%
Decrease 19.08pp
7 / 124 (6%)
Green 264,487
4.60%
Decrease 0.24pp
1 / 124 (0.8%)
Popular vote
PC
40.50%
New Democratic
33.59%
Liberal
19.57%
Green
4.60%
Others
1.74%
Seat summary
PC
61.29%
New Democratic
32.26%
Liberal
5.65%
Green
0.81%

Synopsis of results[edit]

Results by riding - 2018 Ontario general election[a 1]
Riding Winning party Turnout
[a 2]
Votes[a 3]
Party Votes Share Margin
#
Margin
%
PC NDP Lib Green Ind Other Total
 
Ajax PC 19,078 39.1% 3,948 8.1% 54.6% 19,078 15,130 12,607 1,224 220 601 48,860
Algoma—Manitoulin NDP 17,105 58.6% 9,962 34.1% 53.1% 7,143 17,105 2,365 1,025 1,573 29,211
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PC 25,214 56.0% 15,496 34.4% 55.4% 25,214 9,718 8,116 1,195 755 44,998
Barrie—Innisfil PC 22,121 50.0% 9,460 21.4% 54.3% 22,121 12,661 5,543 3,190 757 44,272
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PC 20,445 44.7% 7,554 16.5% 57.0% 20,445 12,891 6,210 5,354 335 454 45,689
Bay of Quinte PC 24,224 48.0% 8,161 16.2% 56.5% 24,224 16,063 7,511 1,730 379 535 50,442
Beaches—East York NDP 24,064 48.2% 10,584 21.2% 61.2% 9,202 24,064 13,480 2,128 161 879 49,914
Brampton Centre NDP 12,892 38.4% 89 0.3% 50.3% 12,803 12,892 5,825 1,053 1,025 33,598
Brampton East NDP 18,062 46.9% 5,166 13.4% 51.2% 12,896 18,062 6,398 523 616 38,495
Brampton North NDP 14,877 37.5% 497 1.3% 51.7% 14,380 14,877 8,410 1,366 591 39,624
Brampton South PC 15,652 41.0% 2,733 7.2% 51.6% 15,652 12,919 7,212 1,472 914 38,169
Brampton West PC 14,951 39.4% 490 1.3% 49.9% 14,951 14,461 7,013 999 537 37,961
Brantford—Brant PC 24,437 39.4% 635 1.1% 47.7% 24,437 23,802 5,553 2,741 1,655 58,188
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC 26,874 54.7% 15,037 30.6% 57.2% 26,874 11,837 6,041 2,927 1,449 49,129
Burlington PC 25,504 40.4% 7,451 11.8% 58.4% 25,504 18,053 15,515 2,828 1,155 63,055
Cambridge PC 17,793 37.0% 2,154 4.5% 63.4% 17,793 15,639 11,191 3,018 490 48,131
Carleton PC 25,798 51.3% 14,490 28.8% 55.2% 25,798 11,308 9,768 1,985 91 1,308 50,258
Chatham-Kent—Leamington PC 24,078 51.9% 7,520 16.2% 62.0% 24,078 16,558 3,736 1,643 358 46,373
Davenport NDP 27,613 60.3% 19,055 41.6% 56.8% 7,370 27,613 8,558 1,624 69 585 45,819
Don Valley East Lib 13,012 35.9% 1,028 2.8% 55.2% 11,984 9,937 13,012 917 367 36,217
Don Valley North PC 18,046 44.4% 5,489 13.5% 53.8% 18,046 8,476 12,557 1,039 489 40,607
Don Valley West Lib 17,802 38.9% 181 0.4% 61.3% 17,621 8,620 17,802 1,268 466 45,777
Dufferin—Caledon PC 29,704 53.1% 18,323 32.7% 56.6% 29,704 11,381 6,972 7,011 888 55,956
Durham PC 28,575 47.0% 9,322 15.3% 59.9% 28,575 19,253 10,237 2,360 382 60,807
Eglinton—Lawrence PC 19,999 40.4% 957 1.9% 60.1% 19,999 8,985 19,042 1,190 311 49,527
Elgin—Middlesex—London PC 29,264 55.5% 12,341 23.4% 59.4% 29,264 16,923 3,857 2,029 694 52,767
Essex NDP 26,134 47.9% 2,711 5.0% 56.1% 23,423 26,134 3,026 1,920 54,503
Etobicoke Centre PC 24,432 43.0% 4,724 8.3% 61.9% 24,432 10,311 19,708 1,329 162 883 56,825
Etobicoke—Lakeshore PC 22,626 38.3% 3,225 5.5% 58.6% 22,626 19,401 14,305 2,138 523 58,993
Etobicoke North PC 19,055 52.5% 9,845 27.1% 50.6% 19,055 9,210 6,601 1,026 414 36,306
Flamborough—Glanbrook PC 22,454 43.5% 4,824 9.4% 60.6% 22,454 17,630 7,967 2,307 1,230 51,588
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell PC 19,952 41.0% 4,543 9.3% 55.4% 19,952 10,610 15,409 1,427 1,292 48,690
Guelph Grn 29,082 45.0% 14,998 23.4% 61.1% 14,084 13,929 6,537 29,082 945 64,577
Haldimand—Norfolk PC 26,889 57.1% 15,280 30.2% 59.2% 26,889 13,609 4,656 2,095 1,344 50,593
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC 32,406 56.7% 17,264 30.2% 59.7% 32,406 15,142 5,655 2,551 1,389 57,143
Hamilton Centre NDP 23,866 65.2% 18,136 49.6% 48.9% 5,730 23,866 3,982 2,102 156 419 36,575
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP 22,518 51.1% 9,834 22.3% 53.1% 12,684 22,518 5,320 1,884 1,614 44,020
Hamilton Mountain NDP 24,406 54.6% 11,515 25.8% 56.2% 12,891 24,406 4,134 2,300 986 44,717
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP 23,921 43.2% 6,732 12.2% 62.3% 17,189 23,921 10,960 2,302 247 771 56,390
Hastings—Lennox and Addington PC 22,374 50.2% 7,933 17.8% 59.1% 22,374 14,441 5,180 1,924 602 44,521
Humber River—Black Creek NDP 11,573 37.4% 2,206 7.1% 47.3% 9,367 11,573 8,642 485 862 30,929
Huron—Bruce PC 27,646 52.4% 12,320 23.3% 63.5% 27,646 15,326 7,356 1,804 670 52,802
Kanata—Carleton PC 23,089 43.2% 7,497 14.0% 62.3% 23,089 15,592 9,090 2,827 2,855 53,453
Kenora—Rainy River PC 9,748 48.6% 2,255 11.2% 54.1% 9,748 7,493 2,123 707 20,071
Kiiwetinoong NDP 3,232 49.9% 1,467 22.7% 45.8% 1,765 3,232 983 406 91 6,477
King—Vaughan PC 29,136 56.6% 17,124 33.3% 55.5% 29,136 7,921 12,012 1,754 638 51,461
Kingston and the Islands NDP 21,788 39.2% 6,476 11.6% 57.3% 14,512 21,788 15,312 3,574 458 55,644
Kitchener Centre NDP 20,512 43.4% 7,432 15.7% 58.3% 13,080 20,512 9,499 3,234 955 47,280
Kitchener—Conestoga PC 17,005 39.6% 686 1.6% 59.9% 17,005 16,319 6,035 2,853 762 42,974
Kitchener South—Hespeler PC 16,511 38.9% 770 1.8% 55.8% 16,511 15,741 6,335 3,198 275 423 42,483
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC 27,906 58.3% 11,108 22.0% 60.8% 27,906 16,800 3,143 1,660 915 50,424
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PC 26,194 52.0% 10,855 21.6% 62.0% 26,194 15,339 5,359 2,410 440 601 50,343
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes PC 30,002 61.3% 20,314 41.5% 60.2% 30,002 9,688 6,543 2,347 389 48,969
London—Fanshawe NDP 25,272 55.7% 11,753 25.9% 49.6% 13,519 25,272 3,797 2,050 753 45,391
London North Centre NDP 25,757 47.6% 9,056 16.7% 54.9% 16,701 25,757 8,501 2,493 661 54,113
London West NDP 32,644 55.3% 15,511 26.3% 60.6% 17,133 32,644 5,847 2,211 1,161 58,996
Markham—Stouffville PC 25,912 48.1% 11,905 22.1% 58.6% 25,912 10,997 14,007 2,153 777 53,846
Markham—Thornhill PC 18,943 50.4% 9,783 26.0% 52.2% 18,943 8,010 9,160 859 576 37,548
Markham—Unionville PC 29,305 62.4% 20,849 44.4% 54.7% 29,305 7,776 8,456 996 405 46,940
Milton PC 18,249 41.7% 5,185 11.8% 56.1% 18,249 9,740 13,064 2,200 536 43,789
Mississauga Centre PC 17,860 40.9% 5,814 13.3% 49.8% 17,860 12,046 11,102 1,149 1,553 43,710
Mississauga East—Cooksville PC 17,862 41.1% 4,739 10.9% 51.5% 17,862 9,871 13,123 1,498 1,051 43,405
Mississauga—Erin Mills PC 19,631 41.6% 6,610 14.0% 55.1% 19,631 13,021 11,965 1,296 1,265 47,178
Mississauga—Lakeshore PC 22,520 42.3% 3,884 14.0% 59.3% 22,520 9,735 18,636 1,572 736 53,199
Mississauga—Malton PC 14,712 39.1% 2,361 6.3% 48.4% 14,712 12,351 7,813 874 1,187 874 37,611
Mississauga—Streetsville PC 20,879 43.5% 8,486 17.7% 55.5% 20,879 12,393 12,344 1,349 999 47,964
Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP 4,827 51.8% 2,032 21.8% 54.0% 2,795 4,827 1,332 167 203 9,324
Nepean PC 23,899 45.1% 8,789 16.6% 58.7% 23,899 15,110 10,383 2,739 826 52,957
Newmarket—Aurora PC 24,813 47.7% 12,408 23.9% 59.0% 24,813 12,405 11,840 1,859 447 649 52,013
Niagara Centre NDP 21,618 44.2% 3,285 6.7% 56.1% 18,333 21,618 5,779 1,803 217 1,124 48,874
Niagara Falls NDP 30,161 50.8% 9,035 15.2% 54.6% 21,126 30,161 5,554 2,057 483 59,381
Niagara West PC 24,394 52.8% 10,625 23.0% 63.3% 24,394 13,769 4,859 2,590 578 46,190
Nickel Belt NDP 23,157 63.5% 15,139 41.5% 55.4% 8,018 23,157 3,182 1,137 973 36,467
Nipissing PC 17,598 49.9% 4,604 13.1% 58.2% 17,598 12,994 2,794 997 860 35,243
Northumberland—Peterborough South PC 27,386 45.3% 12,582 20.8% 64.6% 27,386 14,804 14,603 2,740 890 60,423
Oakville PC 24,837 43.7% 4,510 7.9% 62.5% 24,837 9,424 20,327 1,986 297 56,871
Oakville North—Burlington PC 25,691 46.4% 12,195 22.0% 60.2% 25,691 13,496 13,487 2,052 625 55,351
Orléans Lib 24,972 39.0% 2,463 3.8% 62.8% 22,509 14,033 24,972 1,603 435 398 63,950
Oshawa NDP 24,301 44.9% 1,707 3.2% 54.6% 22,594 24,301 4,278 1,957 1,013 54,143
Ottawa Centre NDP 29,675 46.1% 8,564 13.3% 61.2% 10,327 29,675 21,111 2,266 1,024 64,403
Ottawa South Lib 20,773 39.6% 5,454 10.4% 56.9% 15,319 14,250 20,773 1,618 456 52,416
Ottawa—Vanier Lib 20,555 42.9% 6,323 13.2% 51.5% 10,252 14,232 20,555 1,955 964 47,956
Ottawa West—Nepean PC 16,590 32.8% 175 0.3% 57.0% 16,590 16,415 14,810 1,937 793 50,545
Oxford PC 29,152 55.7% 13,235 25.3% 59.2% 29,152 15,917 3,620 2,254 335 1,033 52,311
Parkdale—High Park NDP 32,407 59.4% 22,586 41.4% 62.4% 9,821 32,407 9,271 2,544 506 54,549
Parry Sound—Muskoka PC 22,662 48.1% 12,277 26.0% 59.2% 22,662 10,385 4,071 9,438 219 368 47,143
Perth—Wellington PC 23,736 50.7% 9,351 20.0% 60.3% 23,736 14,385 5,062 2,746 914 46,843
Peterborough—Kawartha PC 22,904 37.7% 2,386 3.9% 62.7% 22,904 20,518 14,946 2,024 398 60,790
Pickering—Uxbridge PC 22,447 42.2% 5,414 10.2% 58.9% 22,447 17,033 10,851 2,105 373 384 53,193
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC 33,350 69.2% 25,284 52.5% 59.7% 33,350 8,066 4,701 1,436 646 48,199
Richmond Hill PC 22,224 51.2% 10,116 23.3% 52.2% 22,224 7,490 12,108 1,248 301 43,371
St. Catharines NDP 18,911 36.6% 1,558 3.0% 58.1% 17,353 18,911 12,671 1,923 792 51,650
Sarnia—Lambton PC 26,811 52.7% 7,816 15.4% 60.9% 26,811 18,995 2,246 1,856 71 851 50,830
Sault Ste. Marie PC 13,498 42.0% 414 1.3% 54.5% 13,498 13,084 3,199 1,044 1,292 32,117
Scarborough—Agincourt PC 18,582 50.4% 8,153 22.1% 51.3% 18,582 6,434 10,429 635 189 602 36,871
Scarborough Centre PC 18,266 38.4% 2,019 5.1% 53.2% 18,266 13,247 8,791 919 1,481 39,704
Scarborough—Guildwood Lib 11,972 33.3% 74 0.2% 52.9% 11,898 9,917 11,972 878 66 1,174 35,905
Scarborough North PC 17,413 51.0% 9,093 26.7% 50.8% 17,413 8,320 7,519 543 318 34,113
Scarborough—Rouge Park PC 16,224 38.6% 963 2.3% 55.5% 16,224 15,261 8,785 1,014 731 42,015
Scarborough Southwest NDP 19,835 45.7% 6,270 14.4% 56.0% 13,565 19,834 8,228 1,174 641 43,443
Simcoe—Grey PC 34,094 55.9% 20,650 33.9% 57.1% 34,094 13,444 8,780 4,192 452 60,963
Simcoe North PC 25,236 46.9% 10,158 18.9% 58.9% 25,236 15,078 9,523 3,632 320 53,789
Spadina—Fort York NDP 24,677 49.6% 12,907 26.0% 53.4% 10,834 24,677 11,770 1,815 635 49,731
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PC 26,780 61.5% 17,364 39.9% 54.1% 26,780 9,416 5,386 1,596 360 43,538
Sudbury NDP 17,386 48.1% 8,981 24.8% 54.2% 8,405 17,386 8,108 1,504 82 682 36,167
Thornhill PC 28,889 61.1% 19,755 41.8% 56.2% 28,889 9,134 6,985 1,043 1,208 47,259
Thunder Bay—Atikokan NDP 11,793 36.3% 81 0.3% 54.7% 7,555 11,793 11,712 880 585 32,525
Thunder Bay—Superior North Lib 11,973 39.9% 813 2.7% 53.8% 5,395 11,160 11,973 838 669 30,035
Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP 16,806 61.2% 10,646 38.8% 53.1% 6,160 16,806 2,476 723 1,296 27,461
Timmins NDP 8,978 57.4% 4,344 27.8% 48.1% 4,634 8,978 1,378 273 370 15,833
Toronto Centre NDP 23,688 53.7% 11,702 26.5% 54.3% 6,234 23,688 11,986 1,377 863 44,148
Toronto—Danforth NDP 32,938 64.2% 24,807 48.4% 61.6% 8,131 32,938 7,216 2,248 228 508 51,269
Toronto—St. Paul's NDP 18,843 36.0% 1,345 2.6% 60.7% 13,780 18,843 17,498 1,690 591 52,402
University—Rosedale NDP 24,537 49.7% 13,639 27.6% 56.6% 10,431 24,537 10,898 2,652 220 674 49,412
Vaughan—Woodbridge PC 21,667 50.5% 7,945 18.5% 56.0% 21,667 6,254 13,742 972 291 42,948
Waterloo NDP 27,315 50.5% 10,342 19.1% 61.8% 16,973 27,315 6,577 2,613 566 54,044
Wellington—Halton Hills PC 31,659 54.0% 17,572 30.0% 61.1% 31,659 14,087 7,492 5,066 320 58,624
Whitby PC 26,471 45.8% 5,313 9.2% 60.3% 26,471 21,158 7,441 1,958 768 57,796
Willowdale PC 17,732 43.6% 6,917 17.0% 50.5% 17,732 10,481 10,815 932 233 453 40,646
Windsor—Tecumseh NDP 25,221 58.4% 13,544 31.4% 47.8% 11,677 25,221 3,513 1,909 863 43,183
Windsor West NDP 20,276 52.1% 9,203 23.7% 43.3% 11,073 20,276 5,722 1,393 435 38,899
York Centre PC 18,434 50.1% 9,817 26.7% 52.9% 18,434 8,617 7,865 843 1,002 36,761
York—Simcoe PC 26,050 57.3% 15,395 33.8% 54.9% 26,050 10,655 6,182 2,195 409 45,491
York South—Weston NDP 13,455 36.1% 1,165 3.1% 49.2% 12,290 13,455 10,379 946 228 37,298
  1. ^ "Summary of Valid Votes Cast for Each Candidate: 2018 General Election". elections.on.ca. Retrieved December 3, 2019.; "Statistical Summary by Electoral District: 2018 General Election". elections.on.ca. Retrieved December 3, 2019.
  2. ^ including spoilt ballots
  3. ^ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately

Detailed analysis[edit]

e • d Elections to the 42nd Parliament of Ontario (2018)[112]
Political party Party leader MPPs Votes
Candidates 2014 Dissol. 2018 ± # % ± (pp)
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 124 28 27 76 49Increase 2,326,523 40.19% 9.08Increase
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 124 21 18 40 22Increase 1,929,966 33.34% 9.68Increase
Liberal Kathleen Wynne 124 58 55 7 48Decrease 1,124,346 19.42% 19.10Decrease
Green Mike Schreiner 124 1 1Increase 264,519 4.57% 0.31Decrease
Libertarian Allen Small 117 42,822 0.74% 0.04Decrease
None of the Above Greg Vezina 42 16,146 0.28% 0.20Increase
  Independents and no affiliation 32 2 2Decrease 8,226 0.14% 0.06Increase
Trillium Bob Yaciuk 26 1 1Decrease 8,091 0.14% 0.13Increase
Northern Ontario Trevor Holliday 10 5,912 0.10% 0.08Increase
Consensus Ontario Brad Harness 10 2,682 0.05% New
Freedom Paul McKeever 14 2,565 0.04% 0.20Decrease
Ontario Party Jason Tysick 5 2,316 0.04% New
Ontario Moderate Party Yuri Duboisky 16 2,199 0.04% 0.03Increase
Communist Dave McKee 12 1,471 0.03% 0.01Decrease
Canadians' Choice Party Bahman Yazdanfar 5 1,239 0.02% 0.01Decrease
Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda Queenie Yu 3 1,078 0.02% New
Ontario Alliance Joshua E. Eriksen 3 802 0.01% New
New People's Choice Party Daryl Christoff 3 634 0.01% New
Special Needs Hilton Milan 5 631 0.01% Steady
People's Political Party Kevin Clarke 6 628 0.01% 0.01Decrease
Confederation of Regions vacant 2 386 0.01% Steady
Stop Climate Change Ken Ranney 2 340 0.01% New
Canadian Economic Party Patrick Knight 2 321 0.01% New
Go Vegan Paul Figueiras 2 256 0.02Decrease
Cultural Action Party Arthur Smitherman 3 215 New
Multicultural Party of Ontario Wasyl Luczkiw 2 191 New
Party of Objective Truth Derrick Matthews 2 176 New
Pauper John Turmel 2 112 Steady
Social Reform Party Abu Alam 2 67 New
  Vacant 4
Total 825 107 107 124 5,744,860 100.00%
Turnout 56.67% 5.38Increase

Summary analysis[edit]

Party candidates in 2nd place[113]
Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
PC NDP Liberal Grn
Progressive Conservative 59 17 76
New Democratic 31 9 40
Liberal 5 2 7
Green 1 1
Total 37 61 26 124
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results[113]
Parties Seats
 Progressive Conservative  New Democratic 90
 Progressive Conservative  Liberal 22
 Progressive Conservative  Green 1
 New Democratic  Liberal 11
Total 124
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party[113]
Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total
 Progressive Conservative 76 37 11 124
 New Democratic 40 61 23 124
 Liberal 7 26 88 3 124
 Green 1 2 117 4 124
 Libertarian 1 77 78
 None of the Above 20 20
 Northern Ontario 2 10 12
 Independent 1 10 11
 Trillium 8 8
 Ontario Party 5 5

Regional analysis[edit]

Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario – seats won by region (2018)
Party Toronto 905 Belt Ham/Niagara Central East Midwest Southwest North Total
Progressive Conservative 11 21 6 10 11 9 4 4 76
New Democratic 11 4 7   2 2 6 8 40
Liberal 3       3     1 7
Green           1     1
Total 25 25 13 10 16 12 10 13 124

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates[edit]

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

Riding Party Candidates Votes Placed
Algoma—Manitoulin  N.Ont. Heritage Tommy Lee 1,366 4th
Kanata—Carleton  Trillium Jack MacLaren 1,947 5th
Mississauga—Malton  Independent Caroline Roach 1,187 4th
Scarborough Centre  Libertarian Matthew Dougherty 1,040 4th
Timiskaming—Cochrane  N.Ont. Heritage Shawn Poirier 1,105 4th

Opinion polls[edit]

Campaign period[edit]

Evolution of voting intentions during the 2018 Ontario provincial election campaign. Plot generated in R from data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

*Includes support for the Green Party

Best Premier and Party Leader Approval Ratings[edit]

Date Firm Best Premier ratings Approval ratings
Ford Horwath Wynne
Ford Horwath Wynne Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
June 6, 2018 Research Co.   36% 55% 54% 34% 29% 64%
June 2, 2018 Forum Research 27% 31% 17% 27% 55% 41% 34% 23% 65%
June 2, 2018 Abacus Data   25% 48% 42% 20% 21% 56%
May 31, 2018 Research Co. 23% 28% 15% 33% 56% 52% 34% 27% 64%
May 29, 2018 Forum Research 29% 30% 16% 30% 53% 40% 32% 23% 65%
May 29, 2018 Angus Reid 25% 34% 15%  
May 29, 2018 Innovative Research 23% 30% 14% 30% 54% 48% 23% 25% 59%
May 26, 2018 Abacus Data   27% 45% 44% 15% 19% 60%
May 23, 2018 Forum Research 30% 33% 15% 32% 51% 43% 26% 19% 69%
May 23, 2018 Innovative Research 24% 26% 19% 27% 57% 46% 20% 24% 61%
May 22, 2018 Leger 23% 28% 12%  
May 18, 2018 Abacus Data   26% 46% 42% 13% 17% 60%
May 12, 2018 Innovative Research 24% 26% 16% 31% 52% 44% 17% 21% 62%
May 9, 2018 Forum Research   34% 49% 42% 25% 20% 71%

Major Regional Polls – Toronto[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link Lib PC NDP Gre Oth Margin
of error
Sample
size
Polling method Lead
Campaign Research May 16, 2018 HTML 27 35 32 5 2 ±2.3 pp 1,871 Online 3
Leaders' debate in Parry Sound (May 11, 2018)
Mainstreet Research May 7, 2018 PDF 31.1 36.6 23.1 5.9 3.4 ±2.19 pp 2,000 IVR 5.5
CityTV Toronto leaders' debate (May 7, 2018)[115]

Pre-campaign period[edit]

Ten-poll average of Ontario opinion polls from June 12, 2014, to the last possible date of the next election on June 6, 2018. Each line corresponds to a political party.

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