2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search
2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election

← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
  TN Governor Bill Lee 2019 May.jpg Karl Dean by Leon Roberts.jpg
Nominee Bill Lee Karl Dean
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,336,106 864,863
Percentage 59.6% 38.5%

Tennessee Governor Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County results

Lee:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Dean:      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election

Bill Haslam
Republican

Elected Governor

Bill Lee
Republican

The 2018 Tennessee gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Tennessee. The primaries took place on August 2, with Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean winning their respective party nominations.[1]

Incumbent Republican Governor Bill Haslam was term-limited and is prohibited by the Constitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term.

As of February 2019, this election had the largest number of candidates (28) in a statewide election in United States history; the previous record was the 2016 United States presidential election in Colorado. This large surge in candidates was mostly due to the Libertarian Party of Tennessee's protest of Tennessee's party affiliation/ballot access laws.[2]

Bill Lee was elected with nearly 60% of the vote.

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

  • Bill Lee, businessman[3]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Beth Harwell
Diane Black
Randy Boyd
Bill Lee
U.S. Representatives
State-level Officials
Notable Individuals
Newspapers

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Diane
Black
Randy
Boyd
Beth
Harwell
Bill
Lee
Other Undecided
JMC Analytics July 18–21, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 19% 20% 16% 26% 1%[64] 17%
Emerson College July 11–14, 2018 266 ± 6.4% 27% 22% 14% 19% 3% 14%
Data Orbital June 27–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 24% 23% 10% 19% 24%
Triton Polling & Research (R) June 25–28, 2018 1,040 ± 3.1% 27% 33% 7% 20% 13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) May 14–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 28% 8% 9% 15%
Grassroots Targeting (R-Black) May 4–6, 2018 800 41% 26% 6% 11% 15%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) April 2018 33% 30% 5% 13%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Black) March 2018 31% 31% 10% 10%
TargetPoint/GQR March 7–14, 2018 390 ± 5.0% 25% 20% 6% 7% 2%[65] 37%
North Star Onion Research (R-Lee) February 5–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 22% 25% 4% 18% 30%
Triton Polling & Research (R) December 12–18, 2017 1,028 ± 3.1% 22% 12% 6% 4% 4%[66] 53%

Results[edit]

County results
Republican primary results[67]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Lee 291,414 36.75
Republican Randy Boyd 193,054 24.35
Republican Diane Black 182,457 23.01
Republican Beth Harwell 121,484 15.32
Republican Kay White 3,215 0.41
Republican Basil Marceaux 1,264 0.16
Total votes 792,888 100.0

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Karl Dean
Federal officials
Labor unions
  • Memphis AFSCME Local 1733
  • Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council
  • Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66
  • Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Karl
Dean
Craig
Fitzhugh
Other Undecided
Emerson College July 11–14, 2018 206 ± 7.3% 44% 14% 9% 33%
TargetPoint/GQR March 7–14, 2018 288 ± 5.8% 41% 11% 44%

Results[edit]

Primary results by county:
Democratic primary results[75]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Karl Dean 280,553 75.14
Democratic Craig Fitzhugh 72,553 23.42
Democratic Mezianne Vale Payne 20,284 5.44
Total votes 373,390 100.0

Independents[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q Libertarian Party and Green Party do not have ballot access. Appears on ballot as "Independent."[77]

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Bill Lee (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level Officials
Notable Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Karl Dean (D)
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Labor unions
  • Memphis AFSCME Local 1733
  • Tennessee Pipe Trades; Mid-South Carpenters Regional Council
  • Road Sprinkler Fitters U.A. Local Union No. 66
  • Local Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[94] Likely R October 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[95] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[96] Safe R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[97] Likely R November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[98] Safe R November 5, 2018
Fox News[99][a] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[100] Likely R November 5, 2018
Governing[101] Likely R November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[102] Likely R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[103] Solid R November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Lee (R)
Karl
Dean (D)
Other Undecided
Targoz Market Research October 28–31, 2018 480 53% 44% 2%
Emerson College October 28–30, 2018 621 ± 4.0% 54% 41% 2% 3%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 718 LV ± 3.5% 54% 37% 2% 7%
850 RV ± 3.0% 52% 36% 2% 9%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–29, 2018 780 ± 3.5% 56% 44%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 764 LV ± 4.3% 52% 42% 0% 4%
871 RV ± 4.0% 52% 41% 0% 5%
East Tennessee State University October 22–29, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 48% 36% 5% 9%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 497 ± 4.4% 59% 36% 3% 2%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018 471 LV ± 5.7% 57% 40% 1% 3%
764 RV ± 4.4% 56% 39% 1% 4%
Vanderbilt University/SSRS October 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.9% 48% 37% 0% 12%
Targoz Market Research October 9–12, 2018 558 LV 56% 44%
801 RV 49% 39% 12%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 593 ± 4.2% 59% 33% 8%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 666 LV ± 3.5% 53% 36% 1% 10%
806 RV ± 3.5% 52% 35% 1% 10%
SurveyMonkey September 9–24, 2018 1,609 ± 3.3% 46% 35% 19%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 567 ± 4.1% 55% 45%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 723 LV ± 4.3% 52% 43% 0% 3%
852 RV ± 3.9% 49% 43% 0% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R) September 10–12, 2018 1,038 ± 3.0% 54% 37% 9%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 686 LV ± 3.5% 55% 35% 1% 10%
809 RV ± 3.5% 52% 34% 2% 12%
Marist College August 25–28, 2018 538 LV ± 5.1% 53% 40% 1% 7%
730 RV ± 4.5% 51% 39% 1% 9%
Gravis Marketing August 9–11, 2018 620 ± 3.9% 51% 40% 9%
Triton Polling & Research (R) January 21–24, 2018 1,003 ± 3.1% 38% 34% 28%

Results[edit]

Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018[104]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Bill Lee 1,336,106 59.56% -10.75%
Democratic Karl Dean 864,863 38.55% +15.71%
Independent Other candidates 42,314 1.89% N/A
n/a Write-ins 11 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 2,243,294 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

References[edit]

  1. ^ Almukhtar, Sarah. "Tennessee Primary Election Results".
  2. ^ "Tennessee Gubernatorial Election Has Greatest Number of Candidates for a Regularly-Scheduled Statewide Election in U.S. History - Ballot Access News". ballot-access.org.
  3. ^ "Republican Bill Lee announces run for governor of Tennessee". The Tennessean. Retrieved 2017-04-23.
  4. ^ Garrison, Joey (August 2, 2017). "Diane Black enters race for governor of Tennessee". The Tennessean. Retrieved August 2, 2017.
  5. ^ staff, WATE 6 On Your Side (2017-03-06). "Randy Boyd announces plans to run for Tennessee governor". WATE 6 On Your Side. Retrieved 2017-03-06.
  6. ^ "Beth Harwell enters 2018 governor's race touting experience and leadership". The Tennessean. Retrieved 2017-07-16.
  7. ^ a b Sher, Andy (April 6, 2018). "Well-known unconventional hopefuls running for Tennessee governor". Chattanooga Times Free Press. Retrieved April 7, 2018.
  8. ^ "Kay White officially enters 2018 governor's race, makes announcement in Jonesborough". WATE 6 On Your Side. 2017-07-23. Retrieved 2017-11-12.
  9. ^ "Mae Beavers says she's running for governor of Tennessee". The Tennessean. Retrieved 2017-05-28.
  10. ^ "Tennessee 2018 General Election". www.thegreenpapers.com.
  11. ^ Humbles, Andy. "Wilson County 'engaged' in Aug. 2 election, deadline reveals numerous contested races". The Tennessean. Retrieved 6 April 2018.
  12. ^ "Sen. Mark Green will not re-enter 2018 governor's race". The Tennessean. Retrieved 2017-06-02.
  13. ^ "Lee Co.'s Bill Lee exploring Republican run for governor". The Tennessean. May 3, 2016. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
  14. ^ Ebert, Joel (June 6, 2017). "Marsha Blackburn won't challenge Sen. Corker, will seek re-election". The Tennessean. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  15. ^ Whetstone, Tyler (May 8, 2017). "Tim Burchett will run for office, which one is anyone's guess". Knoxville News Sentinel. Retrieved June 3, 2017.
  16. ^ Whetstone, Tyler (June 26, 2017). "Knox County Mayor Burchett rules out run for governor". Knoxville News Sentinel. Retrieved July 21, 2017.
  17. ^ Whetstone, Tyler (August 2, 2017). "Tim Burchett to run for Congress". Knoxville News Sentinel. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
  18. ^ Ebert, Joel (February 20, 2017). "Joe Carr leaves door open to possible 2018 gubernatorial bid". The Tennessean. Retrieved February 26, 2017.
  19. ^ a b c d e Ebert, Joel (June 14, 2017). "Tennessee's 2018 governor's race: Who's in, out, undecided". The Tennessean. Retrieved June 14, 2017.
  20. ^ a b c Emily Cahn (March 5, 2014). "Senate Control Could Decide Opportunities in Tennessee". Roll Call. Retrieved November 26, 2014.
  21. ^ "Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam Isn't Ruling Out Senate Run". WKMS. February 23, 2017. Retrieved February 24, 2017.
  22. ^ Houk, Robert (June 4, 2017). "Talking Trump with Tennessee's junior U.S. senator". Johnson City Press. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  23. ^ a b Yusuf, Omer (August 14, 2017). "Stephen Fincher endorses Diane Black for governor". The Jackson Sun. Retrieved August 14, 2017.
  24. ^ "Tennessee Secretary of State Tre Hargett won't seek governorship in '18". Times Free Press. November 22, 2014. Retrieved November 26, 2014.
  25. ^ Stockard, Sam (June 6, 2017). "Rob Mitchell considers run for governor". The Murfreesboro Post. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  26. ^ "Rutherford County Property Assessor Rob Mitchell not running for Governor". WGNS. July 20, 2017. Retrieved July 21, 2017.
  27. ^ Ebert, Joel (January 11, 2017). "Mark Norris says he's moving toward gubernatorial bid". The Tennessean. Retrieved February 26, 2017.
  28. ^ "Trump nominates Senate Leader Mark Norris, three others as federal judges in Tennessee". The Tennessean. Retrieved 2017-07-13.
  29. ^ http://www.maurycounty-tn.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=5085
  30. ^ Erik Schelzig (November 9, 2014). "Possible Tennessee governor candidates for 2018". The Jackson Sun. Retrieved November 26, 2014.
  31. ^ a b "Roundup: TEA, TSEA endorse Fitzhugh, Harwell". May 23, 2018.
  32. ^ "2018 TPFFA Primary Election Candidate Endorsements".
  33. ^ Mike Pence. ".@DianeBlackTN is running for Governor of TN & a strong supporter of #MAGA agenda of tax cuts, military $$ & a champion of right to life policies. There are great candidates running but Diane has been my friend for years, we served together in the House, & she has my support!". Twitter.
  34. ^ Hayes, Hank (August 14, 2017). "Ramsey gets behind Black's gubernatorial bid". Kingsport Times-News. Retrieved August 14, 2017.
  35. ^ Diane Black. "Honored to receive the endorsement of @RickSantorum, a leader who is not afraid to fight for conservative values. Tennessee stood behind Rick in his 2012 race for President, and I'm proud to have him behind me in my race for Governor. #TeamBlack". Twitter.
  36. ^ Conradis, Brandon (10 June 2018). "Scalise throws support behind Black, Blackburn ahead of Tennessee primary".
  37. ^ "Jordan Sekulow endorses Diane Black for Governor". Diane Black for Governor. May 24, 2018.
  38. ^ Diane Black. "Honored to have the endorsement of Dr. Swain, and don't forget to vote early starting tomorrow!". Twitter.
  39. ^ "Tennessee Right to Life Endorses Pro-Life Rep. Diane Black for Governor". LifeNews.com. June 29, 2018.
  40. ^ "National Right to Life Endorses Diane Black for Governor". Diane Black for Governor.
  41. ^ "SBA List Endorses Pro-life Champion Diane Black for Governor of Tennessee". Susan B. Anthony List. April 11, 2018.
  42. ^ "NRA Endorses Representative Diane Black for Governor". NRA. June 21, 2018.
  43. ^ "ACU Endorses Diane Black". ACU.
  44. ^ Students For Trump. "We fully endorse @DianeBlackTN to be the next Governor of Tennessee!". Twitter.
  45. ^ Sher, Andy (June 27, 2018). "Family Research Council endorses Diane Black bid for Tennessee governor". Chattanooga Times Free Press.
  46. ^ Buie, Jordan (June 22, 2018). "Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee endorses Randy Boyd". The Tennessean.
  47. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Whetstone, Tyler (July 31, 2017). "Randy Boyd announces 21 more county mayors endorse campaign". Knoxville News Sentinel. Retrieved August 2, 2017.
  48. ^ "Durrett endorses Boyd for governor". The Leaf-Chronicle. June 28, 2017. Retrieved August 2, 2017.
  49. ^ Poe, Ryan (July 26, 2017). "Shelby County Mayor Luttrell endorses Randy Boyd for governor". The Commercial Appeal. Retrieved August 2, 2017.
  50. ^ a b Sher, Andy (July 16, 2018). Chattanooga Times Free Press https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2018/jul/16/wamp-backs-lee/475071/. Retrieved July 16, 2018. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  51. ^ a b "Andy Holt on Twitter".
  52. ^ a b Herald, The Daily. "State Representative Sheila Butt endorses Bill Lee".
  53. ^ a b "Twitter". mobile.twitter.com.
  54. ^ a b "Republican Mae Beavers endorses Bill Lee for governor".
  55. ^ a b "Carr Endorses Lee". Facebook Post.
  56. ^ a b "RELEASE: Lee Announces Community and Faith-Based Advisory Council - Bill Lee". 27 February 2018.
  57. ^ a b "Press Release: Businessman Bill Lee Raises $1.3 Million In First Major Fundraiser - Bill Lee". 6 June 2017.
  58. ^ a b c d e f "Mike Fisher, Darrell Waltrip join 'faith, community' council in Bill Lee campaign".
  59. ^ a b "Ricky Skaggs To Headline Bill Lee For Governor Event On Monday In Chattanooga".
  60. ^ a b "Honored to Have the endorsement of Scott Hamilton".
  61. ^ "Cooper: Republican Lee the Choice for Republicans". Chattanooga Times Free Press.
  62. ^ Johnson City Press https://www.johnsoncitypress.com/tags/as-we-see-it. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  63. ^ a b "Dunlap News Opinion: Endorsement for Governor". Dunlap News.
  64. ^ Basil Marceaux 1%, Kay White <1%
  65. ^ Kay White 2%
  66. ^ Mae Beavers 4%
  67. ^ "August 2, 2018 Republican Primary Governor" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 25, 2018.
  68. ^ Garrison, Joey (February 26, 2017). "Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean to run for governor of Tennessee". The Tennessean. Retrieved February 26, 2017.
  69. ^ Garrison, Joey (August 6, 2017). "Craig Fitzhugh to run for governor of Tennessee, setting up contested Democratic primary". The Tennessean. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
  70. ^ "Mezianne Payne announces candidacy for governorship".
  71. ^ Sher, Andy (November 9, 2015). "New names dropped in 2016 Tennessee governor's race". Chattanooga Times Free Press. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
  72. ^ Garrison, Joey (February 27, 2017). "Fitzhugh leaning toward run against Dean for governor; Freeman out". The Tennessean. Retrieved February 27, 2017.
  73. ^ a b Tennessean. "Nashville Congressman Jim Cooper endorses Karl Dean for Tennessee governor". Twitter.
  74. ^ a b "Turned It Around". YouTube. July 11, 2018. Retrieved July 20, 2018.
  75. ^ "August 2, 2018 Democratic Primary Governor" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved October 8, 2018.
  76. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r "Filed petitions" (PDF). sos-tn-gov-files.s3.amazonaws.com.
  77. ^ "Let's turn TN into OK! - Libertarian Party". 13 November 2017.
  78. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to Bill Lee of Tennessee on his big primary win for Governor last night. He ran a great campaign and now will finish off the job in November. Bill has my total and enthusiastic Endorsement!". Twitter.
  79. ^ Mike Pence. "Congratulations on a big primary win to @BillLeeTN! The people of Tennessee are fortunate to have a man like you step up to serve as their Governor. @realDonaldTrump and I strongly support you & look forward to campaigning with you to victory in November!". Twitter.
  80. ^ Lamar Alexander. "Congratulations to Bill Lee on tonight's victory. As I've often said, there is no better job than being governor of your home state, especially if that state is Tennessee. I look forward to working with Bill to continue Governor Haslam's excellent leadership of our state". Twitter.
  81. ^ Bundgaard, Chris (3 August 2018). "Diane Black throws support behind Bill Lee after GOP governor primary loss".
  82. ^ Marsha Blackburn. "Congratulations, @BillLeeTN! I look forward to uniting the party and working together for Tennessee". Twitter.
  83. ^ Bill Haslam. "Congrats to @BillLeeTN on winning the Republican nomination for TN governor". Twitter.
  84. ^ Staff, Tennessee Star (18 June 2018). "State Rep. Jay Reedy Endorses Bill Lee for Governor".
  85. ^ "How negative ads sank Randy Boyd's gubernatorial race".
  86. ^ "TN Professional Firefighters Association endorses Bill Lee for governor". ClarksvilleNow.com. September 12, 2018.
  87. ^ "NRA Endorses Bill Lee for Governor of Tennessee". NRA-ILA. September 20, 2018.
  88. ^ "The Tennessee Police Benevolent Association Endorses Bill Lee for Governor". Southern States PBA. October 11, 2018.
  89. ^ Cooper, Clint (October 17, 2018). "Cooper: Lee best choice for Tennessee governor". Retrieved October 18, 2018.
  90. ^ "Bill Lee has potential to be an inspiring Tennessee governor". Knoxville News Sentinel. October 25, 2018. Retrieved October 25, 2018.
  91. ^ Terry McAuliffe. "Phone banking for @KarlFDean #TeamDean". Twitter.
  92. ^ Martin O'Malley. "It's great to be in Nashville with @PhilBredesen and @KarlFDean! Tennessee is fired up and feeling that blue wave!". Twitter.
  93. ^ Rep. Craig Fitzhugh. "I'm all in for @KarlFDean and you should be, too. For more #jobs, higher wages, for #educators & #MedicaidExpansion—there's only one choice. #TeamDean". Twitter.
  94. ^ "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  95. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  96. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  97. ^ "2018 Governor Races". Retrieved August 2, 2018.
  98. ^ "Elections 2017-18". Daily Kos. September 30, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  99. ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. 2018-10-27.
  100. ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  101. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
  102. ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  103. ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. 2018-10-17. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  104. ^ https://sos-tn-gov-files.tnsosfiles.com/Nov%202018%20General%20Totals.pdf

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites