2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

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2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa

← 2016 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2020 →

All 4 Iowa seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Democratic Republican
Last election 1 3
Seats won 3 1
Seat change Increase2 Decrease2
Popular vote 664,676 612,338
Percentage 50.52% 46.54%
Swing Increase6.05% Decrease7.11%

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the four U.S. Representatives from the state of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The state congressional delegation flipped from a 3–1 Republican majority to a 3–1 Democratic majority. The Democrats last won the majority of seats in the 2010 election.

Overview[edit]

Party Candi-
dates
Votes Seats
No. % No. +/– %
Democratic Party 4 664,676 50.48% 3 Increase2 75.00%
Republican Party 4 612,338 46.51% 1 Decrease2 25.00%
Libertarian Party 4 29,894 2.27% 0 Steady 0.00%
Independent 3 5,100 0.39% 0 Steady 0.00%
Legal Marijuana Now Party 1 2,015 0.15% 0 Steady 0.00%
Green Party 1 1,888 0.14% 0 Steady 0.00%
Write-in 732 0.06% 0 Steady 0.00%
Total 32 1,316,643 100.00% 13 Steady 100.00%
Popular vote
Democratic
50.48%
Republican
46.51%
Libertarian
2.27%
Other
0.74%
House seats
Democratic
75.00%
Republican
25.00%

By district[edit]

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa by district:[1]

District Republican Democratic Others Total Result
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
District 1 153,442 45.91% 170,342 50.96% 10,459 3.13% 334,243 100% Democratic Gain
District 2 133,287 42.60% 171,446 54.79% 8,180 2.61% 312,913 100% Democratic Hold
District 3 167,933 47.14% 175,642 49.30% 12,666 3.56% 356,241 100% Democratic Gain
District 4 157,676 50.37% 147,246 47.04% 8,123 2.59% 313,045 100% Republican Hold
Total 612,338 46.51% 664,676 50.49% 39,428 3.00% 1,316,442 100%

District 1[edit]

Republican Rod Blum, who has represented the district since 2015, was reelected to a second term with 54% of the vote in 2016.

The 1st district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 49% to 45% margin, after voting for Barack Obama with a 56% to 43% margin in 2012.[2]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared
  • Abby Finkenauer, Iowa State Representative[3]
  • Thomas Heckroth, former staffer for United States Senator Tom Harkin[4][5]
  • George Ramsey III, former military recruiter[5]
  • Courtney Rowe, engineer and Bernie Sanders delegate at the 2016 state convention[6]
Declined

Endorsements[edit]

Abby Finkenauer
State legislators
Individuals
Thomas Heckroth
State legislators
Individuals
Courtney Rowe
Organization

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Abby Finkenauer 29,525 66.90
Democratic Thomas Heckroth 8,467 19.18
Democratic Courtney Rowe 3,320 7.52
Democratic George Ramsey 2,786 6.31
Democratic Write-ins 36 0.08
Total votes 44,134 100

Republican primary[edit]

Incumbent Rod Blum ran for re-election to a third term and was unopposed in the primary.

Results[edit]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rod Blum (incumbent) 14,581 99.00
Republican Write-ins 148 1.00
Total votes 14,729 100

Green Party[edit]

Henry Gaff, co-chair of the Iowa Green Party, announced he is running as a Green Party candidate.[14] Gaff is only 18, meaning he will not meet the U.S. Constitution's required minimum age of 25 to be elected to the House of Representatives.[14]

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Lean D October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[16] Lean D September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Lean D October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[18] Lean D October 5, 2018
Fox News[19] Lean D September 28, 2018
CNN[20] Lean D October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[21] Lean D September 28, 2018
The New York Times[22] Lean D October 5, 2018
Politico[23] Lean D October 9, 2018

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rod
Blum (R)
Abby
Finkenauer (D)
Troy
Hageman (L)
Undecided
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 353 ± 5.5% 41% 53% 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 28–31, 2018 452 ± 4.9% 39% 46% 4% 11%
The Polling Company (R-Blum) October 12–13, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 43% 45% 4% 6%
The Polling Company (R-Blum) October 3–4, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 43% 44% 3% 8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 18–20, 2018 502 ± 4.6% 37% 52% 11%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 250 ± 6.4% 38% 43% 12%
DCCC (D) February 13–14, 2018 41% 47%
Public Policy Polling (D) February 12–13, 2018 742 ± 3.6% 42% 43% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Heckroth) November 2–3, 2017 737 42% 43% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 6–8, 2017 1,093 ± 3.0% 40% 42% 18%

Results[edit]

Iowa's 1st congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Abby Finkenauer 170,342 51.0
Republican Rod Blum (incumbent) 153,442 45.9
Libertarian Troy Hageman 10,285 3.1
n/a Write-ins 174 0.0
Total votes 334,243 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 2[edit]

Democratic Representative Dave Loebsack, who has represented the district since 2007, was reelected to a sixth term with 54% of the vote in 2016. Loebsack ran for reelection.[24]

The 2nd district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 49% to 45% margin, after voting for Barack Obama with a 56% to 43% margin in 2012.[2]

Democratic primary[edit]

Incumbent Dave Loebsack ran for re-election to a seventh term in office and was unopposed in the primary.

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Dave Loebsack (incumbent) 42,233 99.27
Democratic Write-ins 309 0.73
Total votes 42,542 100

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

  • Christopher Peters, Republican nominee in 2016[25]
Failed to make primary ballot
Declined

Results[edit]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Christopher Peters 18,025 87.78
Republican Write-ins 2,510 12.22
Total votes 20,535 100

Independents[edit]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[29] Solid D October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[16] Solid D September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] Safe D October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[18] Safe D October 5, 2018
Fox News[19] Likely D September 28, 2018
CNN[31] Solid D October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[21] Likely D September 28, 2018
The New York Times[32] Solid D October 5, 2018
Politico[23] Likely D October 9, 2018

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dave
Loebsack (D)
Christopher
Peters (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 373 ± 5.3% 53% 40% 5%
Gravis Marketing (R-Peters) September 8–11, 2018 425 ± 4.8% 46% 38% 16%
43% 37% 3%[33] 17%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 250 ± 6.4% 45% 21% 28%

Results[edit]

Iowa's 2nd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Dave Loebsack (incumbent) 171,446 54.8
Republican Christopher Peters 133,287 42.6
Libertarian Mark Strauss 6,181 2.0
Independent Daniel Clark 1,837 0.6
n/a Write-ins 162 0.0
Total votes 312,913 100.0
Democratic hold

District 3[edit]

Republican David Young, who has represented the district since 2015, was reelected to a second term with 53% of the vote in 2016.

The 3rd district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 49% to 45% margin, after voting for Barack Obama with a 51% to 47% margin in 2012.[2]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared
Failed
  • Theresa Greenfield, real estate executive,[39] failed to make the primary ballot. After her campaign manager was fired for forging signatures on nominating papers, she attempted to re-collect the 1,790 signatures necessary to make the ballot, but did not get enough signatures.[40]
Withdrew
  • Austin Frerick, former Treasury Department economist[41][42]
  • Paul Knupp, psychiatric rehabilitation practitioner and minister,[43] withdrew from the Democratic primary to join the Green party[citation needed]
  • Heather Ryan, nominee for KY-01 in 2008[44][45]
  • Anna Ryon, attorney with the Office of Consumer Advocate[46]
  • Mike Sherzan, businessman and candidate in 2016[47][48]
Declined

Endorsements[edit]

Austin Frerick (withdrawn)
Pete D'Alessandro

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Cindy
Axne (D)
Pete
D'Alessandro (D)
Eddie
Mauro (D)
Undecided
Selzer & Co. May 13–16, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 26% 11% 27%

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cindy Axne 32,070 57.91
Democratic Eddie J. Mauro 14,582 26.33
Democratic Pete D'Alessandro 8,595 15.52
Democratic Write-ins 136 0.25
Total votes 55,383 100

Republican primary[edit]

David Young ran for reelection to a third term in office. No other Republican filed to challenge him.

Results[edit]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Young (incumbent) 21,471 98.95
Republican Write-ins 228 1.05
Total votes 21,699 100

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Toss-up October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[16] Toss-up September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Toss-up October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[18] Toss-up October 5, 2018
Fox News[19] Toss-up September 28, 2018
CNN[20] Toss-up October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[21] Toss-up September 28, 2018
The New York Times[22] Toss-up October 5, 2018
Politico[23] Toss-up October 9, 2018

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Young (R)
Cindy
Axne (D)
Undecided
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 380 ± 5.3% 45% 46% 3%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 25–27, 2018 504 ± 4.6% 41% 43% 11%
NYT Upshot/Siena College September 27–30, 2018 502 ± 4.6% 43% 44% 13%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 260 ± 6.4% 47% 31% 15%
DCCC (D) September 4–5, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 43% 46% 11%
ALG Research (D-Axne) July 8–12, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 41% 45% 14%

Results[edit]

Iowa's 3rd congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cindy Axne 175,642 49.3
Republican David Young (incumbent) 167,933 47.1
Libertarian Bryan Holder 7,267 2.0
LMN Mark Elworth Jr. 2,015 0.6
Green Paul Knupp 1,888 0.5
Independent Joe Grandanette 1,301 0.4
n/a Write-ins 195 0.1
Total votes 356,241 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

District 4[edit]

Republican Representative Steve King, who has represented the district since 2013 and previously represented the 5th district from 2003 to 2013, was reelected to a ninth term in congress in 2018.[57]

The 4th district went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election with a 61% to 34% margin, after voting for Mitt Romney with a 53% to 45% margin in 2012.[2]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared
  • Leann Jacobsen, Spencer City Councilwoman[58]
  • John Paschen, physician[59]
  • J. D. Scholten, paralegal and former professional baseball player[60]
Withdrew
  • Paul Dahl, candidate for Governor of Iowa in 2014[61]
  • Kim Weaver, nominee in 2016[62]
Declined

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic J. D. Scholten 14,514 51.22
Democratic Leann Jacobsen 9,055 31.95
Democratic John Paschen 4,741 16.73
Democratic Write-ins 29 0.10
Total votes 28,339 100

Republican primary[edit]

Results[edit]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve King (incumbent) 27,743 74.69
Republican Cyndi Hanson 9,359 25.20
Republican Write-ins 43 0.12
Total votes 37,145 100

General election[edit]

The election on November 6, 2018, was between Republican Steve King and Democrat J. D. Scholten. King declined to debate Scholten.[65][66] King won by the slimmest margin of victory in his congressional electoral career.[67]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Lean R October 31, 2018
Inside Elections[16] Likely R September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Likely R October 4, 2018
Daily Kos[18] Safe R October 5, 2018
Fox News[19] Lean R October 31, 2018
CNN[20] Likely R October 31, 2018
RealClearPolitics[21] Safe R October 31, 2018
The New York Times[22] Lean R October 31, 2018
Politico[23] Likely R October 31, 2018

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
King (R)
J.D.
Scholten (D)
Other Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 31 – November 4, 2018 423 ± 5.0% 47% 42% 1% 9%
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 2018 356 ± 5.5% 51% 42% 4%
Change Research (D) October 27–29, 2018 631 45% 44%
WPA Intelligence (R-King) October 22–24, 2018 401 ± 4.9% 52% 34% 3% 11%
Expedition Strategies (D-Scholten) September 5–9, 2018 380 ± 5.0% 43% 37%
Emerson College September 6–8, 2018 240 ± 6.5% 41% 31% 16%

Results[edit]

Iowa's 4th congressional district, 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve King (incumbent) 157,676 50.3
Democratic J. D. Scholten 147,246 47.0
Libertarian Charles Aldrich 6,161 2.0
Independent Edward Peterson 1,962 0.6
n/a Write-ins 201 0.1
Total votes 313,251 100.0
Republican hold

References[edit]

  1. ^ Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
  2. ^ a b c d "Morning Digest: Facing reality, Pat McCrory finally concedes North Carolina governor's race". Daily Kos Elections. December 6, 2016. Retrieved January 18, 2017.
  3. ^ Pat Rynard (May 3, 2017). "ABBY FINKENAUER LAUNCHES CONGRESSIONAL BID ON WORKING CLASS MESSAGE". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved May 3, 2017.
  4. ^ a b "Stacey Walker may run for Congress in IA-01". Bleeding Heartland. June 13, 2017. Retrieved June 13, 2017.
  5. ^ a b James Q. Lynch (July 10, 2017). "Thomas Heckroth joins field of candidates seeking to unseat U.S. Rep. Rod Blum". Mason City Globe Gazette. Retrieved July 10, 2017.
  6. ^ James Q. Lynch (May 30, 2017). "Cedar Rapids engineer Courtney Rowe joins 1st District Democratic race". The Gazette. Retrieved May 31, 2017.
  7. ^ a b c "Democrats set to target Blum in IA-01; GOP will go after Loebsack in IA-02". Bleeding Heartland. February 3, 2017. Retrieved February 3, 2017.
  8. ^ Steele, Ron (September 21, 2017). "Senator Danielson says he will not run for Congress in 2018". KWWL. Retrieved September 21, 2017.
  9. ^ a b c James Q. Lynch (July 17, 2017). "Linn County Supervisor Stacy Walker won't run for U.S. House". Muscatine Journal. Retrieved July 27, 2017.
  10. ^ "Steve Sodders rules out running for Congress in IA-01". Bleeding Heartland. April 17, 2017. Retrieved May 3, 2017.
  11. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Team Abby is Growing!". Abby Finkenauer for Congress. May 12, 2017. Retrieved May 12, 2017.
  12. ^ a b c d e "Join Team Heckroth". Thomas Heckroth for Congress. Archived from the original on July 24, 2017. Retrieved July 27, 2017.
  13. ^ Almukhtar, Sarah (June 5, 2018). "Iowa Primary Election Results". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 6, 2018.
  14. ^ a b Crippes, Christinia. "Green Party candidate announces 1st District bid". Waterloo Cedar Falls Courier. Retrieved September 14, 2017.
  15. ^ a b c "2018 House Race Ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 13, 2017.
  16. ^ a b c d "House Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved August 18, 2018.
  17. ^ a b c "2018 House". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved August 13, 2017.
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  23. ^ a b c d "Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election". POLITICO. Retrieved September 7, 2018.
  24. ^ Dolmage, David (August 3, 2017). "Loebsack lays out plan for 2018". Newton Daily News. Retrieved August 3, 2017.
  25. ^ Christopher Peters announces run for U.S. Congress, daily-iowan.Com, 2017/07/19.
  26. ^ "Ginny Caligiuri announces bid for Congress in Iowa's 2nd District". Des Moines Register.
  27. ^ "Iowa Starting Line on Twitter". Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  28. ^ "danielclarkforcongress.com". danielclarkforcongress.
  29. ^ "2018 House Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 18, 2018.
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  31. ^ CNN, Terence Burlij,. "CNN Key Races: Path to House majority comes into focus as a dozen races move toward Democrats". CNN. Retrieved August 18, 2018.CS1 maint: extra punctuation (link)
  32. ^ Times, The New York. "Tracking the House Races to Watch in the 2018 Midterm Elections". Retrieved August 18, 2018.
  33. ^ Daniel Clark (I) with 2%, Mark Strauss (L) with 1%
  34. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (June 2, 2017). "Cynthia Axne announces candidacy challenging David Young". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  35. ^ a b c https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/candidates/primarycandidatelist.pdf
  36. ^ "Democrat Pete D'Alessando exploring congressional run in Iowa's 3rd District". The Des Moines Register. April 25, 2017. Retrieved August 26, 2017.
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  38. ^ Noble, Jason (July 27, 2017). "Eddie Mauro exploring run for Congress in Iowa's 3rd District". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 28, 2017.
  39. ^ Noble, Jason (July 5, 2017). "Real estate executive Theresa Greenfield joins 3rd District race for Congress". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  40. ^ "Democratic Candidate Theresa Greenfield Fails to Make it on Primary Ballot". whotv.com. March 19, 2018. Retrieved March 19, 2018.
  41. ^ a b Noble, Jason (August 4, 2017). "Democrat Austin Frerick is running for Congress in Iowa's 3rd". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
  42. ^ "Iowa Congressional Candidate Drops Out of Race". whotv.com. March 17, 2018.
  43. ^ "Background on Paul Knupp, another Democratic candidate in IA-03". Bleeding Heartland. June 12, 2017. Retrieved June 13, 2017.
  44. ^ "Heather Ryan launches untraditional Democratic campaign in IA-03". Bleeding Heartland. June 7, 2017. Retrieved June 7, 2017.
  45. ^ Rynard, Pat (July 5, 2017). "3rd District Candidate Heather Ryan's Disturbing Past Comments, Videos". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved June 7, 2017.
  46. ^ "IA-03: Democrat Anna Ryon is thinking about it". Bleeding Heartland. February 1, 2017. Retrieved February 2, 2017.
  47. ^ Obradovich, Katie (March 1, 2017). "Democrat Mike Sherzan to run for Congress in Iowa's 3rd District". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 1, 2017.
  48. ^ a b "IA-03: Mike Sherzan is out, Pete D'Alessandro to decide soon". Bleeding Heartland. April 13, 2017. Retrieved June 16, 2017.
  49. ^ a b c d "Who's endorsed the seven Democrats running for Congress in IA-03 - Bleeding Heartland". January 11, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  50. ^ "Ben Jacobs on Twitter". Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  51. ^ "National Nurses United Endorses Cathy Glasson for Governor and Pete D'Alessandro for Congress". National Nurses United. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  52. ^ "Pete D'Alessandro". Our Revolution. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  53. ^ "Bernie Sanders endorses Pete D'Alessandro in Iowa's 3rd District race". Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  54. ^ "Bernie's with Pete: Add your name". Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  55. ^ "The People For Bernie Sanders". www.facebook.com. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  56. ^ a b "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  57. ^ Koss, Emily (June 2, 2017). "Steve King Running for Another Term in Congress". WHO-DT. Retrieved June 2, 2017.
  58. ^ Cauthron, Randy M. (August 10, 2017). "'Anybody with a strong vision can win here'". Spencer Daily Reporter. Retrieved August 10, 2017.
  59. ^ Cannon, Austin (September 18, 2017). "Ames physician to run for Congress". Ames Tribune. Retrieved September 21, 2017.
  60. ^ Noble, Jason (July 25, 2017). "Former Sioux City baseball player J.D. Scholten to run for Congress in Iowa's 4th". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 25, 2017.
  61. ^ Petroski, William (August 21, 2017). "Dahl to seek Democratic nomination for Iowa's 4th District Congress seat". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 21, 2017.
  62. ^ "Kim Weaver withdraws her candidacy in Iowa's 4th District race for Congress". Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 17, 2017.
  63. ^ Rynard, Pat (April 26, 2017). "Dirk Deam Passes On 4th District, Fred Hubbell Rumors Heat Up". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved August 17, 2017.
  64. ^ Hayworth, Bret (May 1, 2017). "Sioux City's Hall mulls run for governor". Sioux City Journal. Retrieved May 12, 2017.
  65. ^ "Is Steve King in trouble? Democrat J.D. Scholten bets hustle and grit are keys to upset". Des Moines Register. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
  66. ^ "No King versus Scholten debate in Iowa's fourth district - Radio Iowa". Radio Iowa. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
  67. ^ "Steve King, scourge of immigrants, squeaks out a win". www.yahoo.com.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites for first district candidates
Official campaign websites for second district candidates
Official campaign websites for third district candidates
Official campaign websites for fourth district candidates