2019 Bolivian general election
|Turnout||88.31% ( 0.41pp)|
General elections were held in Bolivia on 20 October 2019. Voters elected all 130 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 36 senators and cast ballots for a joint slate of president and vice president.
The Bolivian constitution allows the President and Vice-President to put themselves forward for re-election only once, limiting the number of terms to two, and the elections took place after in 2016 a referendum to amend the constitution was rejected, but that the Supreme Court of Justice ruled that all public offices would have no term limits despite what was established in the constitution and allowing Morales to run for a fourth term.
Disputes over the transparency and legitimacy of the elections prompted weeks of widespread protests in Bolivia after incumbent President Evo Morales was declared the winner with 47.08% of the vote; because this was greater than ten-point margin over his nearest competitor, Carlos Mesa, this was enough for Morales to be announced as a winner without a run-off second-round vote.
The Organization of American States (OAS) conducted an audit claiming "clear manipulation" and significant irregularities, releasing a full report afterwards. Observers from the European Union released a report with similar findings and conclusions as the OAS. Several reports, from and commissioned by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a think tank, alleged that OAS conclusions about irregularities in the late vote count were incorrect. A later report by CEPR alleged that OAS's findings of electoral irregularities were primarily due to an OAS programming error during analysis.
Following protests, as well as calls for a second-round election from several foreign countries, Morales, who had pledged to respect the OAS audit, agreed on 10 November to hold new elections, at a date to be determined. On the same day, Morales and his vice president, Álvaro García Linera, was forced to resign from office after losing support from the police and military. Furthermore, the President of the Senate and the President of the Chamber of Deputies – both party allies of Morales, also resigned on the same day, thus exhausting the constitutional line of succession. As a result, the second vice president of the Senate, Jeanine Áñez of the opposition Democrat Social Movement, assumed the interim presidency of Bolivia on 12 November 2019. Due to the annulment of the 2019 elections, MAS retained their supermajority of more than two-thirds in both chambers in opposition to the government, although they would lose this in the 2020 elections.
The 2019 elections were to be rerun in May 2020, but were postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. On 22 June 2020, Áñez approved a law passed by both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate to set a date for the election for 6 September 2020 and the elected authorities in place by mid to late November 2020.
Article 168 of the 2009 constitution allows the President and Vice-President to put themselves forward for re-election only once, limiting the number of terms to two. The governing party, the Movement Towards Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS–IPSP) sponsored an effort to amend this article. The referendum was authorized by a joint session of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly on 26 September 2015, by a vote of 112 to 41.
The referendum was held on 21 February 2016 and the proposed amendment was narrowly rejected by 51.3% to 48.7%. A successful 'yes' vote would have allowed President Evo Morales and Vice President Álvaro García Linera to run for another term in office in 2019. Morales had already been elected three times. The first time, in 2006, is not counted as it was before the two term limit was introduced by the 2009 constitution.
Despite the referendum result, the Supreme Court of Justice – referring to Art. 23 of the American Convention on Human Rights – ruled a little over one year later in December 2017 that all public offices would have no term limits despite what was established in the constitution, thus allowing Morales to run for a fourth term.
The President of Bolivia is elected using a modified two-round system; a candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the vote, or between 40% and 50% of the vote and are at least 10 percentage points ahead of their closest rival. If neither condition is met, a run-off election is held between the two top candidates.
Primary elections were held on 27 January 2019. María Eugenia Choque, President of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), stated that international observers had worked with the TSE to monitor the primary election results. She also stated that they had been given an "information seminar" about all the logistic, legal and communications issues related to the primary and had even visited polling stations to make assessments and recommendations. By the time [sic] the primary was held, however, only one candidate had been registered for each of the nine parties or alliances participating in the general elections. Morales received 36.54% of the total primary votes. Revolutionary Nationalist Movement candidate Virginio Lema was his closest challenger, receiving 7.10% of the total primary votes.
|Party||Presidential candidate||Vice Presidential candidate|
|Movement for Socialism (MAS)||Evo Morales||Álvaro García Linera|
|Civic Community||Carlos Mesa||Gustavo Pedraza|
|Democrat Social Movement||Óscar Ortiz Antelo||Shirley Franco|
|Solidarity Civic Unity||Víctor Hugo Cárdenas||Humberto Peinado|
|Christian Democratic Party||Chi Hyun Chung||Paola Barriga|
|Revolutionary Nationalist Movement||Virginio Lema||Fernando Untoja Choque|
|The Front For Victory||Israel Rodríguez||Justino Román|
|National Action Party of Bolivia||Ruth Nina||Leopoldo Chui|
|Third System Movement||Felix Patzi||Lucila Mendieta|
First place Second place
|Polling firm||Date||Morales||Mesa||García Linera||Costas||Doria Medina||Quiroga||Revilla||Patzi||Blank|
|Mercados y Muestras||January||31%||16%||N/A||9%||10%||4%||2%||4%||14%|
|Mercados y Muestras||March||26%||20%||N/A||8%||12%||4%||2%||3%||12%|
|Mercados y Muestras||May||29%||21%||N/A||5%||7%||2%||2%||4%||13%|
2018 and 2019
|Polling firm||Date||Morales||Mesa||Ortiz||García Linera||Doria Medina||Albarracín||Revilla||Quiroga||Patzi||Others||Blank|
|Mercados y Muestras||January 2018||22%||N/A||15%||13%||N/A||N/A||5%||4%||N/A||N/A||10%|
|Mercados y Muestras||March/April 2018||24%||N/A||14%||8%||10%||N/A||N/A||3%||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Captura Consulting||March 2018||27%||18%||9%||4%||N/A||4%||2%||3%||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Captura Consulting||May 2018||27%||23%||11%||7%||N/A||N/A||2%||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Mercados y Muestras||July 2018||27%||25%||8%||7%||N/A||3%||2%||2%||N/A||N/A||6%|
|Mercados y Muestras||November 2018||29%||34%||N/A||10%||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||7%||20%||N/A|
|Mercados y Muestras||December 2018||30%||39%||4%||2%||N/A||2%||0%||0%||0%||20%||N/A|
|Mercados y Muestras||January 2019||32%||32%||4%||3%||4%||2%||0%||0%||0%||25%||N/A|
|Mercados y Muestras||February 2019||31%||30%||6.6%||N/A||N/A||6.6%||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||16.7%|
|Tal Cual||March 2019||35.6%||30.3%||7.3%||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||16.7%|
|Estudios y Tendencias||April 2019||26.4%||21.1%||5.7%||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||16.7%|
|Tal Cual||May 2019||38.1%||27.1%||8.7%||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||1.3%||N/A||N/A||16.2%|
|Captura Consulting||July 2019||38.4%||23.6%||11.9%||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||1.9%||N/A||N/A||18.9%|
|Mercados y Muestras||August 2019||35%||27%||11%||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||2%||N/A||13%||10%|
|Tal Cual||August 2019||40.8%||23.3%||10.8%||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||1.8%||N/A||N/A||14.6%|
|Mercados y Muestras (Nacional)||September 2019||34.4%||27.1%||13%||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||1%||N/A||2%||5.0%|
|2019 Bolivian political crisis|
Two independent vote count processes were used for the elections. The first one, Transmisión de Resultados Electorales Preliminares (TREP), is a quick count process based on photographs that is meant to provide a preliminary result on election day. The second process is the traditional physical count that takes more time to complete.
With a preliminary vote count of 45% for incumbent president Evo Morales and 38% for his leading challenger, former president Carlos Mesa, after 83% of votes were counted, neither of the conditions for a first-round win appeared likely to be met. A second-round runoff vote between those two candidates would therefore be held on 15 December. However, no further updates to the preliminary results were made after 19:40 hours local time on election day, which caused consternation among opposition politicians and election monitors deployed by the Organization of American States (OAS); Mesa described the suspension as "extremely serious" and spoke of manipulation; the OAS requested an explanation for the pause in the publication of the vote tally. But while the vote tally was not being publicized, election staff were still observed counting votes overnight.
After the publication of the count resumed, the OAS said it observed a "drastic and hard-to-explain change in the trend", and recommended a runoff election due to what the OAS viewed as manipulation.
Bolivia’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), stated that updates to the preliminary count had been halted because the official results were starting to be released. The TSE also stated the vote had taken place normally and with relatively few incidents.
On 24 October 2019, Morales officially declared outright victory following a counting process which gave him 46.83% of the vote against Mesa's 36.7%, with only few votes remaining to be counted. Though the process was deemed controversial, Morales stated that he was still open to a second round runoff if the process later determined that he did not receive the required 10 percentage point victory margin needed in order to avoid a runoff. Cómputo Electoral concluded its counting that very same day, with final results showing Morales with 47.07% of the vote and Mesa with 36.51%. This gave Morales a victory margin of more than 10 percentage points and thus prevented a second round runoff. This was the first election since his first win in which Morales obtained less than 50% of the vote. On the morning of 25 October, the election results were made official.
Some ballots, accounting for 0.01% of the electorate, were voided in the department of Beni. A redo session was scheduled for those affected on 3 November 2019, but the electoral commission said that those votes would not change the outcome of the presidential vote. On 25 October 2019 the TSE cancelled the redo session after neither MAS nor 'Bolivia Dice No' protested the inclusion of the annulled ballots.
|Movement for Socialism||Evo Morales||2,889,359||47.08||67||–21||21||–4|
|Civic Community||Carlos Mesa||2,240,920||36.51||50||New||14||New|
|Christian Democratic Party||Chi Hyun Chung||539,081||8.78||9||–1||0||–2|
|Democrat Social Movement||Óscar Ortiz Antelo||260,316||4.24||4||New||1||New|
|Third System Movement||Félix Patzi||76,827||1.25||0||0||0||0|
|Revolutionary Nationalist Movement||Virginio Lema||42,334||0.69||0||0||0||0|
|National Action Party of Bolivia||Ruth Nina||39,826||0.65||0||0||0||0|
|Solidarity Civic Unity||Víctor Hugo Cárdenas||25,283||0.41||0||0||0||0|
|The Front For Victory||Israel Rodriquez||23,725||0.39||0||0||0||0|
|Source: Cómputo Electoral, OEP|
The pause in results transmission for 24 hours, which took Morales from a tight race with Mesa to an outright win, was challenged by people in Bolivia and other countries, who questioned the legitimacy of the results. Protesters and opposition politicians called for a second round to be held despite Morales' lead, as did the governments of Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, the United States, and the European Union. Support for the results of the election came from the governments of Mexico, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Cuba, Palestine, the Non-Aligned Movement and the new President-elect of Argentina.
The day after the election the vice-president of the TSE Antonio Costas resigned, citing his disagreement with the decision to stop transmitting results. The president of the Santa Cruz Electoral Tribunal Sandra Kettels also resigned on 30 October.
After an updated vote tally was announced on Friday 25 October, including previously annulled ballots in Beni, the United Nations announced that it supported an audit of the process and results, to be carried out by the OAS. Responding to concerns about vote tampering and violent protests, Morales asked the Organization of American States (OAS) to conduct an audit of the vote count. Morales said he would call for a second-round runoff vote with Mesa if the OAS audit found evidence of fraud.
On 27 October, Morales declared that a coup d'état was in the making against his government, saying that political rivals were planning to stage a coup the following week. On 6 November, the opposition published a report stating there had been electoral fraud, including cases where MAS allegedly obtained more votes than the number of registered voters.
Results of OAS audit and resignation
On 10 November, the Organization of American States Electoral Observation Mission in Bolivia published a preliminary report of the audit conducted during the elections. The report found significant irregularities overseen by the Electoral Commission, including widespread data manipulation and altered and forged records. adding that it was statistically unlikely that Morales had secured the 10-percentage-point margin of victory needed to win outright, saying that election should be annulled after it had found "clear manipulations" of the voting system that called into question Morales' win and that "The manipulations to the computer systems are of such magnitude that they must be deeply investigated by the Bolivian State to get to the bottom of and assign responsibility in this serious case. The OAS recommended new elections and appointment of a new elections commission.
Within hours, Morales announced that fresh elections would take place. By late afternoon of that day, Morales and his vice president, Álvaro García Linera, resigned from office after losing support from the police, the military, and former political allies. Adriana Salvatierra Arriaza, the president of the Bolivian Senate, was next in the line of succession, but she too resigned from office on 10 November.
Analyses of the election
Prior to Morales's resignation
On 5 November, Professor Walter R. Mebane at the University of Michigan used his own "eforensics" model to detect and predict the level of fraud that occurred during the election. He estimated that there were between 20,450 and 24,664 fraudulent votes which were subdivided into votes that were abstentions (no votes) that were then transferred to MAS and votes that were initially for other parties but later changed to MAS. With this level of fraud, he initially determined that it would not have been enough to change the results of the elections (Morales would have had a margin of 10.16-10.27%, depending on assumptions) although on 13 November Mebane said that feedback from colleagues led him to believe that "best formula" for the model led to a new reallocation which indicated that Morales would have had a lead of 9.9% over Mesa, requiring a runoff election.
On 8 November 2019, Ethical Hacking, the tech security company hired by the TSE (under Morales) to audit the elections, stated that there were multiple irregularities and violations of procedure and that "our function as an auditor security company is to declare everything that was found, and much of what was found supports the conclusion that the electoral process be declared null and void". In their official report, one source for the OAS, they stated "We cannot attest to the integrity of the electoral results because the entire process is null and void due to the number of alterations to the TREP source code, the number of accesses and manual modifications with the maximum privileges to the databases being created during the electoral process and the inconsistencies in the software that arose in the TREP and Computo."
On 12 November, the OAS's preliminary conclusions were contradicted by a separate analysis by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a left-wing policy think-tank based in Washington. The CEPR report said the OAS "provided no evidence to support these statements suggesting that the quick count could be wrong" and postulated that the irregularities they perceived were instead merely the result of normal geographic voting patterns, noting that "later-reporting areas are often politically and demographically different from earlier ones". The CEPR report argued that due to Morales' voter base being in more rural regions, the later-arriving results from peripheral areas were more likely to be in his favor.
OAS and EU full reports and responses
On 5 December, the full 95-page OAS report was released along with 500 pages of corroborating details as appendices. The audit involved the work of 36 specialists and auditors of 18 nationalities including electoral lawyers, statisticians, computer experts, specialists in documents, calligraphy, chain of custody and electoral organization. The findings included that an outside user who controlled a Linux AMI appliance with "root privileges" — conferring the ability to alter results — accessed the official vote-counting server during the counting and that in a sample of 4,692 returns from polling stations around the country, 226 showed multiple signatures by the same person for different voting booths, a violation of electoral law. On those returns, 91 per cent of votes went to MAS, approximately double the rate recorded elsewhere. The identity of this user was later claimed to be Sergio Martínez, who subsequently fled the country.
On 21 December, the Technical Mission of Electoral Experts sent by the European Union published a 67-page report made similar observations and conclusions to that of the OAS. They noted that "there were minutes with an unusually high number of null votes, blank votes and a hundred percent participation of voters in a series of polling stations" and highlighted the general failure of the TSE to declare these irregularities.
On 27 February 2020, a further CEPR statistical analysis was published via the Washington Post. The work was carried out by Jack Williams and John Curiel, independent contractors for CEPR. The researchers stated that "there is not any statistical evidence of fraud that we can find — the trends in the preliminary count, the lack of any big jump in support for Morales after the halt, and the size of Morales’s margin all appear legitimate. All in all, the OAS's statistical analysis and conclusions would appear deeply flawed" and that "it is highly likely that Morales surpassed the 10-percentage-point margin in the first round" as originally presented.
Williams and Curiel's work was originally implied to be a study undertaken by MIT. After the Washington Post article, Bolivian government officials wrote to MIT about the report. The MIT Associate Provost for International Activities responded stating "this study was conducted independently of MIT... it should be referred to as a CEPR study... we do not endorse or otherwise offer an opinion on the findings". Bolivian newspaper, Página Siete, notes that one of the authors of the report, Jack Williams, had previously signed a letter to the US Congress to oppose the "military coup" in Bolivia and which supported the previous CEPR study. The OAS reiterated their criticisms of the original CEPR report and issued a statement to say that "the mentioned article contains multiple falsehoods, inaccuracies and omissions." Bolivian Minister for Foreign Affairs Karen Longaric called the study "lacking in scientific and academic value". It has also been noted, by political scientist and electoral analyst Rodrigo Salazar Elena, that, except for a few details, the two linked CEPR studies are replicas of the same analysis and that lack of statistical knowledge led commentators to be guided by the prestige of MIT and Washington Post and take the conclusions of the CEPR for granted.
On 10 March 2020, Irfan Nooruddin, Professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and author of Elections in Hard Times: Building Stronger Democracies in the 21st Century, wrote a Washington Post article to defend the analysis he performed as the head of the OAS statistical study included in their audit. In it, he criticises the 27 February CEPR report by questioning the plausibility of their extrapolation, as well as their assumption that there was no discontinuity in the data beyond the point where the preliminary count was halted. Nooruddin states that at the point where 95% of votes were counted, Morales's vote share began to rise more quickly than it had previously, which is consistent across all six departments reporting at that point. These findings, he says, are consistent with the rest of the findings in the OAS report. He also notes that they are consistent with a separate analysis conducted by Diego Escobari, Associate Professor at University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, and Gary A. Hoover, Head of Economics at University of Oklahoma. CEPR also said that the results of this study were in error. 
On 12 March 2020, Professor Rodrigo Salazar Elena, researcher at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences in Mexico, wrote an article in Voz y Voto magazine in which he compares and discusses the claims and evidence shown in the OAS and two CEPR studies.  He defends the OAS audit by stating that the "duly justified" statistical analysis rests on the "continuity assumption": even with different voting groups, change in vote trend should not exhibit large discontinuities around a single point in time. He states that in order to rebut the OAS analysis and account for the increase in Morales's vote share, it would be necessary to identify a feature distinguishing voters on either side of the threshold. He does not dispute CEPR's method, but notes that it rests on the assumption that voting patterns are geographically contiguous "despite the fact that they are different in terms of reporting the votes to TREP". He offers two potential objections to this assumption. First, he says that geographic contiguity is less plausible than the "continuity assumption" made by the OAS. Secondly, he says that the patterns of stations voting before and after the TREP cutoff are not due to chance.
In June 2020, the New York Times reported on a study by independent researchers Francisco Rodríguez (Tulane University), Dorothy Kronick and Nicolás Idrobo (University of Pennsylvania) which said that the OAS's statistical analysis was flawed, and that the OAS likely used a dataset that incorrectly excluded 1,500 late-reporting voting stations. With these stations included, there was no sudden change in the voting trend, contrary to the OAS's finding. The authors also stated that the OAS used a statistical method that improperly created the appearance of a break in the voting trend where none existed. Reached for comment by the New York Times, Irfan Nooruddin, who conducted the OAS's statistical analysis, said that Rodríguez and colleagues' study was wrong and did not accurately represent his work. Nooruddin later responded in a comment that the OAS audit included the 1,511 polling stations in all the analyses conducted and that changing the statistical method to the one advocated by the researchers doesn't change the finding. Nooruddin published software to replicate the results found in the OAS audit. The authors note that they "do not assess the integrity of the election overall.. the OAS presented many qualitative indicators of electoral malpractice". The head of electoral observations for the OAS, Gerardo De Icaza, called the conclusions of the study "a moot point", saying that proving or disproving electoral fraud with statistics alone is impossible, a sentiment echoed by Nooruddin in his own article. Calla Hummel, a Bolivia expert at the University of Miami also commenting in the NYT article stated: "There was fraud — we just don't know where and how much".
In August 2020, after Nooruddin published the dataset he used for his audit to a Harvard University digital repository, CEPR reported that they had found a "fatal flaw" in the data which "negat(ed) the OAS’s claims that fraud affected the results". They noted that timestamps for the tally sheets recorded in the dataset were formatted as alphanumeric strings, rather than in a purely numeric format: therefore, when they were sorted using this variable, they would have been sorted alphabetically, rather than chronologically, so that tally sheets which had been timestamped with a time of 1:00 pm would be earlier in the order than those timestamped at 1:01 am on the same date, despite the latter having been timestamped nearly twelve hours earlier. The CEPR's David Rosnick argued that "the OAS had no real-world chronology of Bolivia’s vote count, even though it made accusations that there was a change in the trend of the votes over time that suggested fraud".
On 25 August 2020, Nooruddin acknowledged the timestamp sorting error identified by the CEPR resulted in "figures where the x-axis is generated using using this variable were incorrect," but stated that the mistake "does not affect any of the results or conclusions reported in the original OAS report."[non-primary source needed] Nooruddin updated a comment explaining the statistical analysis correcting the timestamp sorting mistake and updating the statistical estimator to a local linear regression as argued for by Idrobo, Kronick and Rodríguez.[non-primary source needed]
In October 2020, the Bolivian government presented the results of a police investigation into electoral fraud during the election, alleging that former minister of the presidency Juan Ramón Quintana set up a "war room" to plan electoral fraud together with a number of members of the electoral bodies. The investigation also alleged that a number of foreign individuals, some linked to Mexico's Labor Party, an ally of the governing National Regeneration Movement, were involved in the meeting .
The same month, the Bolivian prosecutors office also released a report corroborating 16 pieces of evidence indicating willful manipulation of the election results. This included redirection of server traffic to a network outside the control of the TSE, falsified tally sheets, burned voter index lists, poor chain of custody not guaranteeing that the material had not been tampered with and modification of data from a number of polling stations. These incidences and more led to the OAS concluding that they could not endorse the results of the elections.
In December 2020, CEPR released another response to the concerns raised by the OAS, writing that "when within-locality variation is taken into account, the election results stand up to scrutiny".
The right-wing caretaker government led by Áñez subsequently moved to persecute Morales' supporters, stifle dissent and consolidate power, detaining several hundred opponents and silencing journalists. Charges of sedition and terrorism were brought against people questioning the new government and a campaign of "national pacification" led to 31 deaths.
The elections were set to be rerun in May 2020, but were postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In June 2020, Áñez stated that she would approve a law passed by both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate to set a date for the election for 6 September 2020. However, she subsequently refused to sign it, insisting she needed to see an epidemiological study that justified having elections in September.
On 23 July 2020, the TSE announced that the election would be postponed to 18 October 2020, due to medical reports that the pandemic would have its highest peaks in late August and early September. The 2020 Bolivian general election was indeed held on that date, resulting in a first-round win by MAS-IPSP candidate Luis Arce, former Minister of Economy and Public Finance and ally of Evo Morales. In the election, which took place under the surveillance of OAS and other international organizations, MAS received 55% of the votes with a margin of 26% over the second party.
- Blair, Laurence (3 December 2017). "Evo for ever? Bolivia scraps term limits as critics blast 'coup' to keep Morales in power". The Guardian. Retrieved 1 January 2018.
This week, the country’s highest court overruled the constitution, scrapping term limits altogether for every office. Morales can now run for a fourth term in 2019 – and for every election thereafter. ... the referendum results – which the government claims were invalid due to an opposition smear campaign directed by Washington ...
- Bolivia's Morales to call fresh election after OAS audit, BBC News (10 November 2019).
- "Bolivia protests as Morales declared poll winner". BBC News. 25 October 2019.
- Anthony Faiola & Rachelle Krygier, Bolivia's Morales agrees to new elections after OAS finds 'manipulation', Washington Post (10 November 2019).
- "OAS - Organization of American States: Democracy for peace, security, and development". August 2009.
- "OAS - Organization of American States: Democracy for peace, security, and development" (PDF). August 2009.
- "Unión Europea Misiónde Expertos Electorales Bolivia 2019 Informe Final" (PDF) (in Spanish). European Union in Bolivia. Archived from the original (PDF) on 6 July 2020. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
- "Informe de la UE detectó "numerosos errores" en elecciones de Bolivia | Voice of America - Spanish". www.voanoticias.com (in Spanish). Voice of America Spanish. 21 December 2019. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
- Turkewitz, Julie (28 February 2020). "M.I.T. Researchers Cast Doubt on Bolivian Election Fraud". The New York Times. Retrieved 1 March 2020.
- Beeton, Dan. "Major Coding Error Reveals Another Fatal Flaw in OAS Analysis of Bolivia's 2019 Elections". Center for Economic and Policy Research. Retrieved 24 August 2020.
- "What Criticisms of Bolivia's 2019 Elections Continue to Get Wrong". Center for Economic and Policy Research. Retrieved 11 December 2020.
- Ernesto Londoño, Bolivian Leader Evo Morales Steps Down, New York Times (10 November 2019).
- "Bolivia crisis: Jeanine Áñez assumes interim presidency". BBC News. 13 November 2019.
- "The MAS did not reach 2/3 in two of the last four elections" (in Spanish). 25 October 2020.
- "After warning of risk, Añez promulgates the law of elections between reproaches of MAS and CC" (in Spanish). 22 June 2020.
- "See the electoral calendar for 2020 elections". 26 June 2020.
- Consulta para habilitar a Evo está en marcha; el MAS ‘se juega la vida’ Archived 18 October 2019 at the Wayback Machine La Razón, 6 November 2015
- "Will Bolivians give Evo Morales a fourth term?". BBC. 20 October 2019. Retrieved 21 October 2019.
- "El Tribunal Electoral define la eventual segunda vuelta para el 15 de diciembre". El Deber. Retrieved 2 April 2019.
- "Imprimir Noticia". Plenglish.com. Retrieved 20 October 2019.
- "Evo Morales habilitado para cuarto mandato en elecciones primarias en Bolivia". El Universo. 27 January 2019. Retrieved 20 October 2019.
- @MonicaAparicioA (27 January 2019). "@Satirulo @vilar_blan @MonicaA80226984 @RafoRoblesRojas @srodrigosalinas @martindiazmeave @CFValverde…" (Tweet). Retrieved 20 October 2019 – via Twitter.
-  27 January 2019
- Mesa va con un cruceño, Samuel se baja y Costas perfila a gente joven El Deber, 28 November 2018
- "Encuesta: Evo no supera el 30% de apoyo y arriesga un balotaje con Mesa - Diario Pagina Siete". www.paginasiete.bo (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- "Encuesta: Evo tiene una intención de voto del 37%". eju.tv (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- "Encuesta: Morales baja al 22% en la intención de voto - Diario Pagina Siete". www.paginasiete.bo (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- "Emerge el nombre de Albarracín como alternativa, él dice gracias". eju.tv (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- "Nueva intención de voto es liderada por Evo con un 27,9%". eju.tv (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- Reynolds, Cesar Aguilar. "Encuesta de Captura Consulting demuestra que Evo Morales,es el candidato con mayor preferencia en Bolivia". kandire.bo (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- "Intención de voto coloca a Morales con un 27% y a Carlos Mesa con 25% - Diario Pagina Siete". www.paginasiete.bo (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- "Intención de voto favorece a Carlos Mesa en cinco ciudades de Bolivia". eju.tv (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- "Encuesta de Ipsos le da 14 puntos de ventaja a Evo sobre Mesa". EL DEBER (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- De 2018, 4 De Diciembre. "El ex presidente boliviano Carlos Mesa aventaja a Evo Morales en una encuesta preelectoral". Infobae (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- "En 2 meses, la preferencia de Mesa sube, baja y empata con Morales - Diario Pagina Siete". www.paginasiete.bo (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 March 2019.
- "Evo y Mesa empatan; Ortiz despega en intención de voto - Pagina Siete". www.paginasiete.bo (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 April 2019.
- "Evo, Mesa y Ortíz pelean el primer lugar en Santa Cruz, según encuesta de Tal Cual - Diario Eju". eju.tv (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 April 2019.
- "Si las elecciones fueran hoy ¿Por quien votaría? - HoyBolivia". hoybolivia.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 7 April 2019.
- "El primer test urbano-rural le da a Evo Morales 11 puntos de ventaja - la Razon". larazon.com (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 21 May 2019. Retrieved 19 May 2019.
- "Evo supera con 11 puntos a Mesa en el inicio de la campaña electoral". EL DEBER (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 July 2019.
- "Encuesta Captura Consulting: Morales aumenta sube en la intención de voto con 38,4%". Bolivia TV (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 August 2019.
- v2019, ABI-Agencia Boliviana de Información. "Encuesta establece que Morales aumenta su ventaja sobre Mesa: 38,4% contra 23,6%". ABI - Agencia Bolivianan de Información. v2019. Retrieved 20 October 2019.
- "Encuesta otorga Evo 35 Mesa 27 Ortiz el 11 - Pagina Siete". www.paginasiete.bo (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 August 2019.
- "Evo obtiene el 40,8%, Mesa el 23,3% y Ortiz 10,8%, según encuesta de Tal Cual". ATB (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 August 2019.
- "Encuesta ratifica ventaja de Evo Morales en intenciones de voto". Prensa Latina (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 August 2019.
- "Bolivia: estudio cuantitativo sobre el clima preelectoral". 24 August 2019. Retrieved 20 October 2019.
- "Evo lidera preferencia con 34%, Mesa logra el 27% y Ortiz el 13% - Diario Pagina Siete". www.paginasiete.bo. Retrieved 20 October 2019.
- "Evo lidera preferencia con 34%, Mesa logra el 27% y Ortiz el 13%". Pagina Siete (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 September 2019.
- "¿Por qué hay dos conteos de votos en el TSE?". Eju! (in Spanish). 21 October 2019. Retrieved 22 October 2019.
- What Happened in Bolivia’s 2019 Vote Count? The Role of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission, the Center for Economic and Policy Research, November 2019
- "Bolivia's Evo Morales set to face first run-off". BBC. 21 October 2019. Retrieved 21 October 2019.
- Roeder, Jonathan (20 October 2019). "Bolivia's Morales Headed for Run-Off Vote as Rival Outperforms". Bloomberg. Retrieved 16 November 2019.
- Otis, John (21 October 2019). "Bolivian Authorities Withhold Vote Count as Chance of Evo Morales Win Fades". WSJ. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 16 November 2019.
- Forero, Juan (21 October 2019). "Count Turns Controversial in Bolivian Presidential Race". WSJ. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 16 November 2019.
- OAS (2019b).
- Collyns, Dan (25 October 2019). "Bolivia: narrow win for Evo Morales announced in presidential election". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 November 2019.
- Otis, John (28 October 2019). "Former President Tries to Turn the Tables on Powerful Bolivian Leader". WSJ. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 16 November 2019.
- "Concern as Bolivia poll results transmission stops". BBC News. 21 October 2019.
- "Bolivia's Evo Morales poised to win re-election following controversial vote count". NBC News.
- Collyns, Dan (25 October 2019). "Bolivia: narrow win for Evo Morales announced in presidential election". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 25 October 2019.
- Karita, Juan (24 October 2019). "Bolivian Court Orders Partial Presidential Revote". The New York Times. Retrieved 25 October 2019.
- "TSE da por válidas cuatro actas que estaban anuladas en Beni y el cómputo llegó al 100%". Educación Radiofónica de Bolivia (in Spanish). 25 October 2019. Retrieved 25 October 2019.
- @alferdez (28 October 2019). "Muchas gracias, querido @evoespueblo, por tu saludo y por tu amistad. Y mis felicitaciones por tu triunfo electoral…" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- "Daniel y Rosario saludan victoria electoral de Evo Morales en Bolivia". La Voz del Sandinismo (in Spanish). 25 October 2019. Retrieved 25 October 2019.
- "Gobierno venezolano saluda triunfo de Evo Morales en Bolivia". Prensa Latina (in Spanish). 24 October 2019. Retrieved 25 October 2019.
- "Cuba denuncia agresividad contra gobiernos de Bolivia y Venezuela". Prensa Latina (in Spanish). 25 October 2019. Retrieved 25 October 2019.
- President Abbas congratulates the Bolivian President for his re-election
- "Antonio Costas renuncia al TSE de manera irrevocable". Diario Pagina Siete (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 November 2019.
- Noticias, ATB Digital-. "Presidenta del TED de Santa Cruz presenta su renuncia irrevocable". ATB Digital (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 November 2019.
- Valdez, Carlos (25 October 2019). "Bolivia reveals final vote results, but no winner declared". Washington Post. Archived from the original on 26 October 2019. Retrieved 26 October 2019.
- "Bolivian government seeks election audit, vows to respect result". Reuters. Reuters. 23 October 2019. Archived from the original on 16 November 2019. Retrieved 16 November 2019.
- "Bolivia, OAS close to deal on election audit as protests continue". Al Jazeera. Reuters. 29 October 2019. Archived from the original on 16 November 2019. Retrieved 16 November 2019.
- "This is not Cuba or Venezuela, say Bolivians". BBC News. Retrieved 26 October 2019.
- "Bolivia president Morales says rivals preparing 'coup'". France 24. 27 October 2019. Retrieved 28 October 2019.
- "Oposición presenta pruebas de sus acusaciones de fraude electoral en Bolivia" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 7 November 2019.
- Ramos, Daniel; Machicao, Monica (10 November 2019). "Bolivia's Morales resigns after protests, lashes out at 'coup'". Reuters. Retrieved 11 November 2019.
- Ramos, Daniel; Machicao, Monica. "Bolivia's Morales to call fresh election after OAS audit". BBC News. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
- "Bolivia's Morales agrees to new elections after damning OAS audit". Reuters. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
- Kay Guerrero & Dakin Andone, Bolivian President Evo Morales steps down following accusations of election fraud, CNN (10 November 2019).
- Bolivian Senate President Salvatierra announces resignation, Reuters (10 November 2019).
- Swinden, Silvia (15 November 2019). "Studies refute OAS claims of irregularities in Bolivian elections". Pressenza - International Press Agency. Retrieved 16 November 2019.
- Mebane, Walter R. (13 November 2019). "Evidence Against Fraudulent Votes Being Decisive in the Bolivia 2019 Election∗" (PDF). University of Michigan personal homepage server. p. 1. Retrieved 2 January 2020.
- "Ethical Hacking: The elections in Bolivia are null and void" (in Spanish).
- "Read the complete report which Ethical Hacking presented to the TSE". El Pais (in Spanish). 8 November 2019.
- TSE Timeline Consultancy: Consolidated Report (Report) (in Spanish). Ethical Hacking. 8 November 2019. p. 33.
- "12 facts nullified the elections". Los Tiempos (in Spanish). 9 November 2019.
- Trump Applauds Bolivia’s Military Coup As US Establishment Media Blame Morales For Turmoil Common Dreams, 12 November 2019
- "Evo Morales: Overwhelming evidence of election fraud in Bolivia, monitors say". BBC News. 6 December 2019.
- "They identify Sergio Martinez as the assessor who manipulated election data". 7 December 2019.
- Williams, Jack. "Analysis of the 2019 Bolivia Election". Center for Economic and Policy Research. CEPR. Retrieved 1 March 2020.
- "Read the MIT letter where they deny having carried out study denying electoral fraud" (in Spanish). 5 March 2020.
- Curiel, John; Williams, Jack R. (27 February 2020). "Bolivia dismissed its October elections as fraudulent. Our research found no reason to suspect fraud". The Washington Post. Retrieved 28 February 2020.
- "Author of CEPR analysis signed petition favouring Evo in 2019" (in Spanish). 3 March 2020.
- "OAS director observes 11 points in the MIT expert analysis" (in Spanish). 3 March 2020. Archived from the original on 4 March 2020. Retrieved 6 March 2020.
- "You can see that CEPR analysis was distorted after the MIT letter" (in Spanish). 6 March 2020.
- "The Statistical Analysis of the Bolivian Election: An orientation to debate". Voz y Voto (in Spanish). 12 March 2020.
- "Yes, Bolivia's 2019 election was problematic. Here's why". 10 March 2020.
- "Evo Morales and Electoral Fraud in Bolivia: A Natural Experiment Estimate" (PDF). 25 November 2019.
- "Unnatural Claims in a 'Natural Experiment': Escobari and Hoover on the 2019 Bolivian Elections" (PDF).
- Kurmanaev, Anatoly; Trigo, Maria Silvia (7 June 2020). "A Bitter Election. Accusations of Fraud. And Now Second Thoughts". The New York Times. Retrieved 11 June 2020.
- Nooruddin, Irfan (2020). "Updated Comment on the 2019 Bolivia Presidential Election and OAS Statistical Analysis". Harvard Dataverse. pp. 11–12. Archived from the original on 24 October 2020. Retrieved 24 October 2020.
- "nooruddin.bolivia 2019 oas analysis do file.do - Irfan Nooruddin Dataverse". dataverse.harvard.edu. Retrieved 24 October 2020.
- Idrobo, Nicolas; Kronick, Dorothy; Rodriguez, Francisco (7 June 2020). "Do shifts in late-counted votes signal fraud? Evidence from Bolivia". p. 13.
- Nooruddin, Irfan (19 August 2020). "Replication Data for: OAS Audit of Bolivia General Election 2019". harvard.edu. Harvard Dataverse. doi:10.7910/DVN/SGOFSC. Retrieved 5 September 2020.
- "Major Coding Error Reveals Another Fatal Flaw in OAS Analysis of Bolivia's 2019 Elections". Center for Economic and Policy Research. 24 August 2020. Retrieved 5 September 2020.
- Rosnick, David (5 September 2020). "The OAS Accusation of Electoral Fraud Against Evo Morales Is Bullshit — And Now We Have the Data to Prove It". Jacobin (magazine). Retrieved 5 September 2020.
- "erratum.txt - Irfan Nooruddin Dataverse". dataverse.harvard.edu. Retrieved 24 October 2020.
- "Updated Comment on the 2019 Bolivia Presidential Election and OAS Statistical Analysis.pdf - Irfan Nooruddin Dataverse". dataverse.harvard.edu. Retrieved 24 October 2020.
- "Identifican a mexicanos aliados de López Obrador implicados en el caso fraude electoral". Erbol (in Spanish). 8 October 2020. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
- "Quintana instaló un "cuarto de guerra" en la Casa Grande del Pueblo para planificar el fraude". Correo del Sur (in Spanish). 14 October 2020. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
- "Fiscalía corroboró 16 evidencias de "manipulación dolosa" de votos en 2019". Correo del Sur (in Spanish). 14 October 2020. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
- As the U.S.-backed government in Bolivia unleashes a wave of political persecution, the Trump administration remains silent The Washington Post, 7 March 2020
- "Bolivia Electoral Body Says Country to Hold Delayed Elections by September 6". 12 June 2020.
- Comicios: Presidenta deja en el limbo promulgación de la ley Pagina Siete, 13 June 2020
- de 2020, 23 de Julio. "El Tribunal Electoral de Bolivia volvió a aplazar las elecciones presidenciales para el 18 de octubre". infobae (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 July 2020.
- "Bolivian COVID statistics". www.boliviasegura.gob.bo (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 18 September 2020. Retrieved 8 October 2020.
- "TSE, EU and OAS support clean elections in face of MAS complaints" (in Spanish). 14 October 2020.
- "Resultados Elecciones Nacionales 2020". computo.oep.org.bo. Retrieved 22 October 2020.