2019 Brandenburg state election

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2019 Brandenburg state election

← 2014 1 September 2019 2024 →

All 88 seats of the Landtag of Brandenburg
45 seats needed for a majority
Turnout61.3% Increase 13.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  2017-03-19 Dietmar Woidke SPD Parteitag by Olaf Kosinsky-1.jpg Andreas Kalbitz 2016 (2).jpg 2018-12-07 Ingo Senftleben CDU Pateitag in Hamburg-2617.jpg
Leader Dietmar Woidke Andreas Kalbitz Ingo Senftleben
Party SPD AfD CDU
Last election 30 seats, 31.9% 11 seats 12.2% 21 seats, 23.0%
Seats before 30 8 21
Seats won 25 23 15
Seat change Decrease5 Increase12 Decrease6
Popular vote 331,238 297,484 196,988
Percentage 26.2% 23.5% 15.6%
Swing Decrease5.7% Increase11.3% Decrease7.4%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Landtagsprojekt Brandenburg Ursula Nonnemacher by Olaf Kosinsky-1.jpg 16-03-10-Kathrin-Dannenberg RR27060.jpg 16-03-09-Péter-Vida RR26529.jpg
Leader Ursula Nonnemacher
& Benjamin Raschke
Kathrin Dannenberg Péter Vida
Party Green Left BVB/FW
Last election 6 seats, 6.2% 17 seats, 18.6% 3 seats, 2.7%
Seats before 6 17 3
Seats won 10 10 5
Seat change Increase4 Decrease7 Increase2
Popular vote 136,364 135,558 63,851
Percentage 10.8% 10.7% 5.0%
Swing Increase4.6% Decrease7.9% Increase2.3%

Landtagswahlkarte Brandenburg 2019.svg

Minister-President before election

Dietmar Woidke
SPD

Minister-President-designate

TBD
TBD

The 2019 state election in Brandenburg, Germany on 1 September 2019 was the seventh election to the state parliament of Brandenburg.[1][2]

On the same day a state election also took place in Saxony, Germany.

Initial situation[edit]

Since the reunification of Brandenburg, the SPD has been the strongest parliamentary group in the state parliament and the prime minister.

The last election to the state parliament of Brandenburg took place on 14 September 2014. The SPD became the strongest parliamentary group ahead of the CDU and the Left, which led to the continuation of the red–red coalition in the form of the Woidke II cabinet under Dietmar Woidke (SPD), which had been in power since the state elections in Brandenburg in 2009.

In the 2019 European elections in Germany, the AfD became the strongest parliamentary group in Brandenburg with 19.9%, ahead of the CDU with 18.0% and the SPD with 17.2%.

Right to vote[edit]

The minimum age for the right to vote is 16.

According to §21 of the electoral law for the Landtag Brandenburg, parties and political associations which did not participate in the last election of the Landtag or in the last election of the Bundestag in the Land must notify the Landeswahlleiter in writing of their participation at the latest on the 88th day before the election.

According to the state constitution and the state election law, the election date must be a Sunday or a public holiday, at the earliest 57 months and at the latest 60 months after the beginning of the election period. It has been set for 1 September 2019.[3]

The seats are distributed according to the largest remainder method (Hare-Niemeyer method). Only parties and political associations whose share of second votes exceeds the 5% threshold or which have won a direct mandate in a constituency (basic mandate clause) participate in the allocation of seats.[4]

In principle, the Landtag consists of 88 deputies, 44 are elected by majority vote in the constituencies, the remainder by proportional representation according to the lists of parties and associations. Overhang and equalisation mandates can increase this number to a maximum of 110. The details of this are laid down in the Brandenburg State Electoral Act.[5]

Coalition statements before the election[edit]

The incumbent Prime Minister Woidke (SPD) only categorically rejected a coalition with the AfD after the election, but "all other variants could not be excluded".[6] Cooperation with the AfD was also rejected by all other parties.[7][8] Vice Prime Minister Görke (Left) was open to a red-red-green alliance.[6] Ingo Senftleben (CDU) saw "similarities" with the Greens.

Participating parties[edit]

The Land Electoral Committee has approved 11 of the 13 national lists submitted:

Pirates, ÖDP, Animal Welfare Party and V-Party³ had previously had to collect signatures of support in order to obtain approval. The other parties are already represented in the Land and Bundestag respectively and are therefore eligible to vote without signatures.[9]

The lists of the party Die PARTEI and the Lusatian Alliance were rejected. There were several formal errors, in particular the lack of the required signatures of support was criticised.[10]

Turnout[edit]

By early afternoon, significantly more people had taken part in the state elections in Brandenburg than five years ago. According to the state election director, 31.3 percent of the voters cast their votes by 2 pm. At the time of the 2014 elections, the figure was only 22.4 percent.[11]

Opinion polls[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

Opinion polling for the 2019 Brandenburg state election.svg

Vote share[edit]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
SPD CDU Linke AfD Grüne FDP BVB/FW Others Lead
2019 state election 1 Sep 2019 26.2 15.6 10.7 23.5 10.8 4.1 5.0 4.1 2.7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Aug 2019 1,653 22 16.5 14 21 14.5 5 4 3 1
Civey 31 Jul–28 Aug 2019 2,460 20.3 17.9 15.5 20.3 14.8 4.9 6.3 Tie
INSA 19–26 Aug 2019 1,019 21 17 15 21 14 5 5 2 Tie
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–22 Aug 2019 1,112 21 18 14 20 14 5 4 4 1
Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2019 1,002 22 18 15 22 12 5 4 2 Tie
Civey 16 Jul–13 Aug 2019 2,981 18.2 17.1 14.7 21.0 17.2 5.5 6.3 3.2
Forsa 25 Jul–5 Aug 2019 1,009 17 18 14 21 16 5 4 5 3
Civey 19 Jun–17 Jul 2019 2,895 17.2 16.3 16.9 21.3 15.1 5.2 8.0 4.1
INSA 24 Jun–1 Jul 2019 1,001 19 18 16 19 16 6 3 3 Tie
Civey 15 May–12 Jun 2019 3,007 21.4 16.3 19.5 19.6 12.0 4.3 6.9 1.8
Infratest dimap 3–6 Jun 2019 1,000 18 17 14 21 17 5 4 4 3
INSA 13–28 May 2019 1,011 19 20 18 20 12 5 3 3 Tie
2019 European election 26 May 2019 17.2 18.0 12.3 19.9 12.3 4.4 2.2
(FW)
13.7 1.9
Civey 19 Mar–16 Apr 2019 1,380 23.0 19.9 16.8 20.9 9.2 4.4 5.8 2.1
Infratest dimap 2–6 Apr 2019 1,000 22 20 16 19 12 5 6 2
Civey End Jan–22 Feb 2019 5,955 21.8 22.1 20.0 18.8 7.0 4.4 5.9 0.3
INSA 28 Jan–4 Feb 2019 1,006 21 21 17 19 10 5 4 3 Tie
Forsa 17–20 Dec 2018 1,005 20 19 17 20 12 5 7 Tie
pmg 19 Nov–6 Dec 2018 1,006 23 21 18 21 10 3 4 2
Infratest dimap 12–17 Sep 2018 1,000 23 21 17 23 7 5 4 Tie
INSA 10–17 Aug 2018 1,048 23 18 18 21 8 5 4 3 2
Infratest dimap 11–16 Apr 2018 1,000 23 23 17 22 7 4 4 Tie
Infratest dimap 7–11 Nov 2017 1,005 23 22 17 20 6 7 5 1
Forsa 7–9 Nov 2017 1,002 25 22 18 18 6 5 6 3
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 17.6 26.7 17.2 20.2 5.0 7.1 1.2
(FW)
5.1 6.5
Infratest dimap 15–19 Jun 2017 1,000 28 25 18 15 6 3 5 3
Forsa 9–13 Jan 2017 1,003 30 21 15 18 7 4 5 9
Infratest dimap 24–28 Nov 2016 1,000 30 25 17 16 6 6 5
Forsa 20–26 Sep 2016 1,001 30 17 17 20 6 4 6 10
Infratest dimap 19–23 May 2016 1,002 29 23 17 20 6 5 6
Forsa 14–17 Mar 2016 1,003 31 19 16 19 7 3 5 12
Forsa 9–17 Dec 2015 1,002 36 21 18 11 6 8 15
Infratest dimap 12–16 Nov 2015 1,000 33 23 19 13 6 6 10
Forsa Sep 2015 1,002 35 24 20 7 7 7 11
Infratest dimap 5–8 Feb 2015 1,000 34 25 19 10 5 7 9
Forsa Dec 2014 1,001 34 22 19 8 8 9 12
2014 state election 14 Sep 2014 31.9 23.0 18.6 12.2 6.2 1.5 2.7 5.5 8.9

Election result[edit]

Summary of the 1 September 2019 election results[12] for the Landtag of Brandenburg
Party Ideology Votes % +/- Seats +/- Seats %
Social Democratic Party (SPD) Social democracy 331,238 26.2% −5.7pp 25 −5 28.4%
Alternative for Germany (AfD) German nationalism 297,484 23.5% +11.3pp 23 +12 26.1%
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Christian democracy 196,988 15.6% −7.4pp 15 −6 17.0%
Alliance '90/The Greens (Grünen) Green politics 136,364 10.8% +4.6pp 10 +4 11.4%
The Left (Die Linke) Democratic socialism 135,558 10.7% −7.9pp 10 −7 11.4%
Brandenburger Vereinigte Bürgerbewegungen [de]/Freie Wähler (BVB/Freie Wähler) Direct democracy 63,851 5.0% +2.3pp 5 +2 5.7%
Free Democratic Party (FDP) Liberalism 51,660 4.1% +2.6pp 0 ±0 0%
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutzpartei) Animalism 32,959 2.6% +2.6pp 0 ±0 0%
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 8,712 0.7% −0.8pp 0 ±0 0%
Others 10,292 0.8% +0.4pp 0 ±0 0%
Total 1,280,895 100.0% 88
Blank and invalid votes 15,789 1.2
Registered voters / turnout 2,088,592 61.3

Government formation[edit]

The governing SPD and Die Linke both suffered losses, bringing an end to their coalition. Incumbent Minister-President Woidke (SPD) invited all parties except AfD to coalition negotiations as his party remained the largest bloc. The CDU expressed interest in joining a so-called "Kenya coalition" with SPD and Greens, which would have 50 seats, and reiterated their refusal to govern with AfD. Woidke confirmed he called CDU leader Senftleben on election day to begin discussions, but expressed reservations about the party's poor performance under pressure from the right. He also did not rule out the possibility of a red-red-green coalition with Die Linke and Greens, which would have a bare majority of 45 seats.[13] Greens leader Nonnemacher expressed willingness to participate in either coalition, but made it clear her party would bring its own policy goals to the table and refuse to merely prop up the existing red-red coalition.[14]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Die nächsten Wahlen in Deutschland:". wahlrecht.de. 2018-09-14.
  2. ^ "Landtagswahlen | Wahlen Brandenburg". wahlen.brandenburg.de. Retrieved 2019-05-05.
  3. ^ "BRAVORS - Schnellsuche".
  4. ^ "BRAVORS - Schnellsuche".
  5. ^ Brandenburgisches Landeswahlgesetz Fassung: 28. Januar 2004, Änderung: 11. Februar 2014
  6. ^ a b Rot-Rot würde in Brandenburg gerne weiter zusammen regieren, auf domradio.de
  7. ^ Landtagswahl in Brandenburg: Koalition mit der AfD ist unbeliebt, auf merkur.de
  8. ^ CDU-Mitglieder sollen über mögliche Koalition mitentscheiden, auf rbb24.de
  9. ^ Redaktion. "Elf Landeslisten zur Brandenburger Landtagswahl zugelassen - Niederlausitz Aktuell".
  10. ^ "Elf Parteien zur Landtagswahl in Brandenburg zugelassen".
  11. ^ "Landtagswahl in Brandenburg: Wahlbeteiligung ist bisher deutlich höher als 2014". rbb24.de. Retrieved 1 September 2019.
  12. ^ [1]
  13. ^ "In Brandenburg ist eine Koalition aus SPD, CDU und Grünen wahrscheinlich". www.tagesspiegel.de (in German).
  14. ^ "Grüne nennen ihren Preis für Koalitionen". n-tv.de (in German).

External links[edit]