2019 Canadian federal election

2019 Canadian federal election

October 21, 2019
All 338 seats in the House of Commons 170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic Leader since April 14, 2013 May 27, 2017 October 1, 2017 Leader's seat Papineau Regina—Qu'Appelle Burnaby South Last election 184 seats, 39.47% 99 seats, 31.89% 44 seats, 19.71% Current seats 177 95 39 Seats needed 75 131   Leader Yves-François Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Party Bloc Québécois Green People's Leader since January 17, 2019 August 27, 2006 September 14, 2018 Leader's seat Running in Beloeil—Chambly Saanich—Gulf Islands Beauce Last election 10 seats, 4.66% 1 seat, 3.45% Pre-creation Current seats 10 2 1 Seats needed 160 168 169
Map showing boundaries of the 338 federal ridings to be contested
Incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Liberal

The 2019 Canadian federal election (formally the 43rd Canadian general election) is scheduled to take place on October 21, 2019, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 43rd Canadian Parliament. Parliament was dissolved by Governor General Julie Payette on September 11, 2019 on the advice of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The 40-day campaign will see the incumbent Liberals attempt to retain their majority that they won in the 2015 election. Two of the three major parties will contest this election under new leaders: the Conservative Party, led by Andrew Scheer, and the New Democratic Party under Jagmeet Singh.

Background

The 2015 federal election resulted in a Liberal majority government headed by Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives became the Official Opposition (with Stephen Harper announcing his resignation as party leader) and the New Democrats (NDP) became the third party. While members of the Bloc Québécois and the Greens were elected to the House, both failed to achieve the required number of MPs for official party status (12). Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe announced his resignation shortly after the election, and was succeeded by Parti Québécois MNA Martine Ouellet. After losing a leadership review, Ouellet announced she would step down as Bloc leader on June 11, 2018, and was succeeded by Yves-François Blanchet on January 17, 2019.

Due to Tom Mulcair gaining only 48% of the vote at the NDP's April 2016 leadership review, the party held a leadership election on October 1, 2017, electing Ontario MPP and the former Deputy Leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party Jagmeet Singh as his successor.

Bill C-44 was passed in 2017 and assigned responsibility to the Parliamentary Budget Office to review party platforms for future elections, with the 2019 election the first subjected to this review. The Parliamentary Budget Office has a $500,000 budget for costing party platforms for this election, but will only review a party platform at the request of the party that authored it. It will also conduct confidential assessments of independent and party platform proposals preceding the election campaign. The service will also be available to members of parliament representing a party that does not have official party status in the House of Commons, such as Elizabeth May.

Electoral reform

Main article: Canadian House of Commons Special Committee on Electoral Reform

In June 2015, Trudeau pledged to reform the electoral system if elected, saying, "We are committed to ensuring that 2015 is the last election held under first-past-the-post." As the Liberals, New Democrats, Bloc, and Greens were all in favour of reform, it was seen as possible that a different voting system could be in place by the next federal election.

A Special Committee on Electoral Reform was formed with representatives from all five parties in the House. The committee's report, Strengthening Democracy in Canada: Principles, Process and Public Engagement for Electoral Reform, was presented in December 2016 and recommended a proportional electoral system be introduced following a national referendum. The majority of the all-party committee recommended "that the government should, as it develops a new electoral system ... [seek to] minimize the level of distortion between the popular will of the electorate and the resultant seat allocations in Parliament."

Despite the mandate of the committee being to "identify and conduct a study of viable alternate voting systems" rather than to recommend a specific alternative system, the Minister of Democratic Institutions Maryam Monsef was critical of the committee's recommendation saying "I have to admit I'm a little disappointed, because what we had hoped the committee would provide us with would be a specific alternative system to first past the post." Interim Conservative Leader Rona Ambrose said Monsef's comments were "a disgrace" and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May said "[t]he minister chose to insult the committee and chose to mislead Canadians."

In February 2017, Trudeau dropped support for electoral reform, issuing a mandate to newly appointed Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould, saying that, "A clear preference for a new electoral system, let alone a consensus, has not emerged. ... Changing the electoral system will not be in your mandate." In response to questions from the public in Iqaluit, Trudeau said "It is because I felt it was not in the best interests of our country and of our future," citing concerns that alternative electoral systems would give too much parlimentary power to fringe groups.

Endorsements

• September 4, 2019: Quebec Premier François Legault announced that he will not endorse anyone and forbade Coalition Avenir Québec MNAs and employees from participating in the federal campaign.
• September 11, 2019: Alberta Premier Jason Kenney announced that he will campaign for the Conservatives and encouraged UCP MLAs "to help oust Justin Trudeau's Liberals".
• September 13, 2019: Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said he will not endorse anyone in the federal election. He says he will speak about policies, not parties.
• September 18, 2019: Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister endorsed Andrew Scheer.
• September 18, 2019: PEI Premier Dennis King will not be actively engaging in the federal election and hopes to work well with whoever becomes prime minister post-Oct. 21.

Election campaign

Leaders' debates

See also: Canadian leaders' debates

The first debate was hosted by Maclean's and Citytv on September 12. Scheer, Singh and May participated. Trudeau declined his invitation. An empty podium was left on stage for him.

Two official debates will be organized and held by the newly created Leaders' Debates Commission. The English language debate is scheduled to take place on October 7 and the French on October 10. Both debates are to take place at the Canadian Museum of History in Gatineau, Quebec.

On August 12, 2019, the Commissioner extended invitations for Justin Trudeau, Andrew Scheer, Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May and Yves-François Blanchet to attend. He also sent a letter to Maxime Bernier indicating that he did not qualify for the debates at this time, and asking for additional information from the People's Party so that a final decision could be reached by September 16. Bernier criticized the decision saying that it would not be a "real debate" without him. On September 16, the Commission announced that Bernier would be invited to attend the official debates.

The government established rules in 2018 to determine which party leaders are invited to the official debates. To be invited a party must satisfy two of the following:

1. Have at least one member elected under the party's banner;
2. Nominate candidates to run in at least 90% of all ridings; and
3. Have captured at least 4% of the votes in the previous election or be considered by the commissioner to have a legitimate chance to win seats in the current election, based on public opinion polls.

In November 2018, Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould said that Maxime Bernier would qualify for the debates as leader of the People's Party of Canada if the party nominated candidates in 90% of ridings.

Debates and scheduled debates:

Subject	Invited Participants	Date	Organizer	Location	Notes
Economy, foreign policy, indigenous issues and the environment	Liberals; Conservatives; NDP; Greens	September 12, 2019	Maclean's and Citytv	Toronto	The debate was moderated by Paul Wells. Scheer, Singh and May participated. Justin Trudeau did not attend. An empty podium was left on stage for him. The "At Issue" panel on CBC's The National, praised each of the three leaders' performances. The panel believed that Trudeau's re-election odds would not be negatively affected for missing the debate. Following the debate, some of Mr. Scheer's comments were criticized as misleading, while another comment caused controversy relating to the rights of Indigenous people.
Foreign Policy	Liberals; Conservatives; NDP; Greens	October 1, 2019	Munk Debates	Roy Thomson Hall, Toronto	Munk Debates is calling for a bilingual leaders debate on foreign policy. Andrew Scheer, Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May have agreed to attend. Trudeau has announced he will not be attending the debate. Maxime Bernier was not invited.
	Liberals; Conservatives, Bloc and NDP	October 2, 2019	TVA	Montreal	This French language debate is scheduled to occur on October 2, 2019 and be hosted by the Quebec television network, TVA. Trudeau committed to attending, after the date was moved forward from the originally scheduled date of October 16. Neither Elizabeth May nor Maxime Bernier were invited.
General	Liberals; Conservatives; Bloc; NDP; Greens; People's	October 7, 2019	Leaders' Debates Commission	Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau	This English language debate will be moderated by Rosemary Barton, Susan Delacourt, Dawna Friesen, Lisa LaFlamme and Althia Raj, each responsible for a portion of the debate. It will be produced by the newly formed Canadian Debate Production Partnership, which is made up of the following broadcasters and newspapers: CBC News/Radio-Canada, Global News, CTV News, the Toronto Star, HuffPost Canada/HuffPost Quebec, La Presse, Le Devoir, and L'actualité. All parties invited have confirmed their leader will attend. Bernier was not invited at first, but an invitation was later extended on September 16.
General	Liberals; Conservatives; Bloc; NDP; Greens; People's	October 10, 2019	Leaders' Debates Commission	Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau	This French language debate will be moderated by Patrice Roy, who will be assisted by several journalists from prominent Quebec newspapers. It will be produced by the newly formed Canadian Debate Production Partnership, which is made up of the following broadcasters and newspapers: CBC News/Radio-Canada, Global News, CTV News, the Toronto Star, HuffPost Canada/HuffPost Quebec, La Presse, Le Devoir, and L'actualité. All parties invited have confirmed their leader will attend. Bernier was not invited at first, but an invitation was later extended on September 16.

Other proposed debates:

Subject	Invited Participants	Date	Organizer	Location	Notes
Climate Change	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	On July 17, protesters gathered in cities across Canada calling for a leaders' debate to be held on the topic of climate change. The protests were directed at CBC News after organizers were told that broadcasters not the commission would determine the questions and topics of the debates. In response to the protests, the CBC released a statement saying that the commission and the editorial group at the broadcaster ultimately selected to host the debates would be responsible for making such determinations. On August 8, 2019, organizers delivered a petition with 48,000 signatures to the CBC.

Controversies

Party	Description
Liberal	April 2, 2019: Jody Wilson-Raybould, Liberal candidate for Vancouver Granville, and Jane Philpott, Liberal candidate for Markham—Stouffville, were deselected as candidates over their role in the SNC-Lavalin affair. August 22, 2019: Ralph Goodale, Liberal candidate for Regina—Wascana, Lawrence MacAulay, Liberal candidate for Cardigan, Francis Scarpaleggia , Liberal candidate for Lac-Saint-Louis were singled out for their opposition to same sex marriage. Pundits, argued that Goodale was being hypocritical, due to his role with Scheer and the same-sex marriage incident. Goodale later stated that he evolved on the position and wanted answers from Scheer. August 30, 2019: Hassan Guillet, Liberal candidate for Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, was dropped as a candidate following allegations of anti-Semitic comments from B'nai B'rith. Guillet's nomination was previously criticized over the fear that his ethnicity would be out of place in the majority Italian riding. Guillet denied the allegation, alleged that the Liberals were aware of the post, and that they "imposed" his replacement Patricia Lattanzio, on the riding. September 18–19, 2019: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attracted controversy for a photograph published in Time magazine, in which he wore brownface makeup to a party at West Point Grey Academy, where he was a teacher, in 2001. Trudeau called it a mistake and apologized publicly for it. When apologizing, Trudeau also confessed to having worn similar makeup during high-school. Following his apology, an earlier instance from the early 1990s of Trudeau wearing blackface makeup was uncovered. The following day, Trudeau apologized again and said he's "not that person anymore". He also said that we shouldn't call it "makeup" but blackface, which is something bad and racist.
Conservative	April 25, 2019: Harzadan Khattra, Conservative candidate for Dufferin—Caledon, was disqualified after a fellow contestant sent the party verifiable information about "membership buying, improper voting, and other concerns". June 28, 2019: Salim Mansur, Conservative candidate for London North Centre, was disqualified over alleged fears that the Liberals would characterize Mansur's record as Islamophobic. July 10, 2019: Mark King, Conservative candidate for Nipissing-Timiskaming, was stripped of his nomination for disputed reasons. July 10, 2019: Cyma Musarat, Conservative candidate for Pickering-Uxbridge, faced an allegation from fellow party members that she won her nomination by using improper voting procedures. The Conservative Party faced an accusation that its headquarters had been delaying the nomination contest to find a different candidate. July 24, 2019 – September 15, 2019: Ghada Melek, Conservative candidate for Mississauga—Streetsville, was revealed by former organizers of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, after it was revealed that rejected as a candidate in the provincial riding over social-media posts about Muslim extremism. National Council of Canadian Muslims had issues over Melek's social media posts about Islam and LGBT+ community. Scheer accepted an apology she issued for her comments. Later, CTV News obtained her provincial vetting report and her promotion of conspiracy theories was seen as another factor behind her disqualification. When asked about the provincial party red-flagging Malek, Scheer defended her again. August 22, 2019 – September 20, 2019: Scheer faced questions over an 2005 online video in which he spoke against same-sex marriage Scheer himself did not respond until a press conference a week later where he argued that Trudeau was raising a wedge issue; Several pundits had an issue with his response. Weeks later, Scheer was asked if he needed to apologize for his comments giving the standards he set for his candidates; however he gave no response. After Trudeau's apology regarding blackface, Scheer was asked again if he should apologize for his words; he gave no response. August 26–30, 2019: Alain Rayes, Scheer's Quebec Lieutenant, attracted attention after he told a Quebec radio station that he misspoke on the party stance on abortion. A few days later, Scheer held a press conference, where he addressed the issue. However, his answers were seen as confusing in the media, and anti-abortion activists found his answers to be mixed-messaging. A day later, Scheer declared that he and his cabinet would vote against anti-abortion bills if the debate is re-opened. September 12, 2019: Cameron Ogilvie, Conservative candidate for Winnipeg North, resigned as a candidate after the party became aware of withheld social media post which the Conservative Party described as "discriminatory". September 12, 2019: Rachel Wilson, Conservative candidate for York Centre, attracted attention after a video was posted online that called for pro-life legislation. Wilson did not comment when asked about abortion legislation. September 13, 2019: Arpan Khanna, Conservative candidate for Brampton North, apologized after it was revealed that offhandedly used a homophobic slur to tease a friend. September 14, 2019: Justina McCaffrey, Conservative candidate for Kanata—Carleton, attracted attention for making negative remarks in a video about Justin Trudeau and francophones, and her relationship with Faith Goldy. She departed a campaign event when confronted by reporters, but later released a statement apologizing for her comments and later stated that her relationship with Goldy ended a longtime ago. However, there were pictures of the two together in 2017. September 17, 2019: Brock Harrison, Scheer's director of communication, and the CPC tweeted that the RCMP had confirmed Trudeau was under investigation for SNC-Lavalin. Scheer himself also repeated the allegation. Both tweets were removed after journalists deemed it to be false.
New Democratic	June 20, 2019: Rana Zaman, NDP candidate for Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, was dropped as a candidate over comments about the Israeli–Palestinian conflict that the party deemed "unacceptable". August 16, 2019: Pierre Nantel , NDP candidate for Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, was de-selected as the after reports surfaced of ongoing discussions regarding Nantel joining the Green Party of Canada. September 11, 2019: Dock Currie, NDP candidate for Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, was forced to resign over some "flippant and aggressive" comments he made toward pro-pipeline activists. September 12, 2019: Olivier Mathieu, NDP candidate for Lasalle-Emard-Verdun, stepped down as a candidate following allegations of physical abuse against his ex-spouse.
Bloc Québécois	August 9, 2019: Andre Parizeau, Bloc candidate for Ahuntsic-Cartierville created attention over his past communist affiliations as the leader of Parti communiste du Québec (PCQ). Parizeau disavowed the PCQ in order to be accepted as candidate.
Green	July 23, 2019: Brock Grills, Green candidate for Peterborough—Kawartha, stepped down for "personal reasons". Grills was accused of fraud by an former employer but he and the EDA president stated that accusation was not the reason behind his stepping down. Grills, who repeated his reasoning, also mentioned the Green party central office "pushed" for his resignation because he was reaching out to other parties to ask them to adopt policies to curb climate change. August 16, 2019: Luc Saint-Hilaire, Green candidate for Lévis—Lotbinière, was forced to resign because of a Facebook post demanding Boufeldja Benabdallah, co-founder of the Centre Culturel Islamique de Québec, to denounce a man who allegedly lit his ex-wife on fire. September 9, 2019: the Green Party issued a statement insisting that there is "zero chance" of reopening the abortion debate; few hours after May stated the Green Party will not ban members from trying to reopen abortion debate in an interview. May later added that MPs risk being ousted if they move to reopen the debate. September 10–16, 2019: Pierre Nantel, Green candidate for Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, created attention over his comments about Québec separatism on a Quebec radio station. May disputed that Nantel was a Quebec Sovereigntist, but Nantel contradicted her afterwards. However, May stated he could be still be a candidate. Some journalists and columnists were confused by her reasoning for keeping him as a candidate. Furthermore, May was asked by the son of the late Jack Layton to not use him for political points when defending Nantel. September 10–17, 2019: Mark Vercouteren, Green candidate for Chatham-Kent-Leamington, and Macarena Diab, Green candidate for Louis-Hébert were revealed to made "anti-abortion statements". A spokesperson defended both of them but a few days later, it was revealed by May that Vercoutern was being "re-vetted" over the party not noticing Vercouteren's questionnaires. A few days later, Vercouteren stated his view aligned with the party. September 12, 2019: Erik Schomann, Green candidate for Simcoe North, resigned over a 2007 Facebook post which appeared to suggest he wanted to mail pieces of a pig carcass to Muslims in support of the protesters during the Muhammed comic controversy. September 12, 2019: Dale Dewar, Green candidate for Regina—Qu'Appelle, apologized for making past negative comments on social media about Israel, Zionism and Israelis.
People's	July 30, 2019: Cody Payant, People's candidate for Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek, attracted attention for a social media post defending Lindsay Shepherd. Payant argue that it was taken out of context. Bernier defended Payant after he spoke to Payant and was satisfied with his explanation. September 2–4, 2019: Maxime Bernier called Greta Thunberg "mentally unstable" on Twitter. A few days later, he backtracked his comments stating his intention was to criticize her role as "a spokesperson for climate alarmism" and did not mean to denigrate her. September 6, 2019: Ken Pereira, People's candidate for Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, stepped down because of a "terrible family tragedy". When annouced as the candidate, Pereira attracted attention over his online posts but was defended by the party. September 13, 2019: Brian Misera, People's candidate for Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, was revoked as a candidate after he allegedly admitted to the party that he was his own financial agent, a violation of Elections Canada rules. September 18, 2019: Steven Fletcher, People's candidate for Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, denied allegations for illegally using campaign signs and voter data from the Conservative Party. September 19, 2019: Nancy Mercier, People's candidate for Beauséjour, raised concern from local organizations over comments about Islamism and immigration Mercier indicated her concerns are with Islamic terrorism and not members of any race.

Parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2015 federal election.

Name		Ideology	Leader	2015 result		Current seats
				Votes (%)	Seats
	Liberal	Liberalism Social liberalism	Justin Trudeau	39.47%	184 / 338	177 / 338
	Conservative	Conservatism Economic liberalism Fiscal conservatism	Andrew Scheer	31.89%	99 / 338	95 / 338
	New Democratic	Social democracy Democratic socialism	Jagmeet Singh	19.71%	44 / 338	39 / 338
	Bloc Québécois	Quebec sovereigntism Social democracy	Yves-François Blanchet	4.66%	10 / 338	10 / 338
	Green	Green politics Green liberalism	Elizabeth May	3.45%	1 / 338	2 / 338
	People's	Conservatism Libertarianism Classical liberalism Populism	Maxime Bernier	N/A		1 / 338
	Co-operative Commonwealth	Social democracy	N/A	N/A		1 / 338
	Independents	N/A		N/A		8 / 338
	Vacant seats	N/A		N/A		5 / 338

Campaign slogans

Party	English	French	Translation of French (unofficial)
Conservative Party	"It's time for you to get ahead."	"Plus. Pour vous. Dès maintenant."	"More. For you. Starting now."
New Democratic Party	"In it for you."	"On se bat pour vous"	"We Fight for You"
Liberal Party	"Choose Forward"	"Choisir d'avancer"	"Choose to move forward"
Bloc Québécois	N/A	"Le Québec, c'est nous"	"Quebec, it's us"
Green Party	"Not Left. Not Right. Forward Together."	"Ni à droite ni à gauche. Vers l'avant ensemble."	"Neither rightwards nor leftwards. Forward together."
People's Party	"Strong & Free"	"Fort et libre"	"Strong & Free"

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MPs have announced that they will not be running in the next federal election:

Liberal Party

• Frank Baylis (Pierrefonds—Dollard)
• Bill Casey (Cumberland—Colchester)
• Rodger Cuzner (Cape Breton—Canso)
• Mark Eyking (Sydney—Victoria)
• Colin Fraser (West Nova)
• Pam Goldsmith-Jones (West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country)
• T. J. Harvey (Tobique—Mactaquac)
• Andrew Leslie (Orléans)
• Eva Nassif (Vimy)
• John Oliver (Oakville)
• Denis Paradis (Brome—Missisquoi)
• Kyle Peterson (Newmarket—Aurora)
• Don Rusnak (Thunder Bay—Rainy River)
• Geng Tan (Don Valley North)
• Borys Wrzesnewskyj (Etobicoke Centre)

Conservative Party

• David Anderson (Cypress Hills—Grasslands)
• Jim Eglinski (Yellowhead)
• Kellie Leitch (Simcoe—Grey)
• Guy Lauzon (Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry)
• Larry Miller (Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound)
• Rob Nicholson (Niagara Falls)
• Alex Nuttall (Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte)
• Bev Shipley (Lambton—Kent—Middlesex)
• Robert Sopuck (Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa)
• Kevin Sorenson (Battle River—Crowfoot)
• David Tilson (Dufferin—Caledon)
• Dave Van Kesteren (Chatham-Kent—Leamington)
• Mark Warawa (Langley—Aldergrove) (Warawa has since died)

New Democratic Party

• Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet (Hochelaga)
• David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre)
• Nathan Cullen (Skeena—Bulkley Valley)
• Fin Donnelly (Port Moody—Coquitlam)
• Linda Duncan (Edmonton Strathcona)
• Hélène Laverdière (Laurier—Sainte-Marie)
• Irene Mathyssen (London—Fanshawe)
• Anne Minh-Thu Quach (Salaberry—Suroît)
• Christine Moore (Abitibi—Témiscamingue)
• Murray Rankin (Victoria)
• Romeo Saganash (Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou)

Co-operative Commonwealth Federation

• Erin Weir (Regina—Lewvan) (elected as NDP)

Independent

• Celina Caesar-Chavannes (Whitby) (elected as Liberal)
• Tony Clement (Parry Sound—Muskoka) (elected as Conservative)
• Hunter Tootoo (Nunavut) (elected as Liberal)

Timeline

See also: 42nd Canadian Parliament

Changes in seats held (2015–2019)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner	March 23, 2016	Jim Hillyer	█ Conservative	Death in office	October 24, 2016	Glen Motz	█ Conservative
Nunavut	May 31, 2016	Hunter Tootoo	█ Liberal	Resigned from caucus			█ Independent
Ottawa—Vanier	August 16, 2016	Mauril Bélanger	█ Liberal	Death in office	April 3, 2017	Mona Fortier	█ Liberal
Calgary Heritage	August 26, 2016	Stephen Harper	█ Conservative	Resignation	April 3, 2017	Bob Benzen	█ Conservative
Calgary Midnapore	September 23, 2016	Jason Kenney	█ Conservative	Resignation	April 3, 2017	Stephanie Kusie	█ Conservative
Saint-Laurent	January 31, 2017	Stéphane Dion	█ Liberal	Resignation	April 3, 2017	Emmanuella Lambropoulos	█ Liberal
Markham—Thornhill	January 31, 2017	John McCallum	█ Liberal	Resignation	April 3, 2017	Mary Ng	█ Liberal
Sturgeon River—Parkland	July 4, 2017	Rona Ambrose	█ Conservative	Resignation	October 23, 2017	Dane Lloyd	█ Conservative
Lac-Saint-Jean	August 9, 2017	Denis Lebel	█ Conservative	Resignation	October 23, 2017	Richard Hébert	█ Liberal
Calgary Skyview	August 31, 2017	Darshan Kang	█ Liberal	Resigned from caucus			█ Independent
Scarborough—Agincourt	September 14, 2017	Arnold Chan	█ Liberal	Death in office	December 11, 2017	Jean Yip	█ Liberal
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity	September 30, 2017	Judy Foote	█ Liberal	Resignation	December 11, 2017	Churence Rogers	█ Liberal
South Surrey—White Rock	September 30, 2017	Dianne Watts	█ Conservative	Resignation	December 11, 2017	Gordon Hogg	█ Liberal
Battlefords—Lloydminster	October 2, 2017	Gerry Ritz	█ Conservative	Resignation	December 11, 2017	Rosemarie Falk	█ Conservative
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	December 1, 2017	Denis Lemieux	█ Liberal	Resignation	June 18, 2018	Richard Martel	█ Conservative
Terrebonne	February 28, 2018	Michel Boudrias	█ Bloc Québécois	Resigned from caucus			█ Groupe parl qué
					June 6, 2018		█ Bloc Québécois
Rivière-du-Nord	February 28, 2018	Rhéal Fortin	█ Bloc Québécois	Resigned from caucus			█ Groupe parl qué
					September 17, 2018		█ Bloc Québécois
Mirabel	February 28, 2018	Simon Marcil	█ Bloc Québécois	Resigned from caucus			█ Groupe parl qué
					June 6, 2018		█ Bloc Québécois
Repentigny	February 28, 2018	Monique Pauzé	█ Bloc Québécois	Resigned from caucus			█ Groupe parl qué
					September 17, 2018		█ Bloc Québécois
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel	February 28, 2018	Louis Plamondon	█ Bloc Québécois	Resigned from caucus			█ Groupe parl qué
					September 17, 2018		█ Bloc Québécois
Joliette	February 28, 2018	Gabriel Ste-Marie	█ Bloc Québécois	Resigned from caucus			█ Groupe parl qué
					September 17, 2018		█ Bloc Québécois
Montcalm	February 28, 2018	Luc Thériault	█ Bloc Québécois	Resigned from caucus			█ Groupe parl qué
					September 17, 2018		█ Bloc Québécois
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes	May 2, 2018	Gord Brown	█ Conservative	Death in office	December 3, 2018	Michael Barrett	█ Conservative
Regina—Lewvan	May 3, 2018	Erin Weir	█ New Democratic	Removed from caucus	May 11, 2018		█ CCF
Outremont	August 3, 2018	Tom Mulcair	█ New Democratic	Resignation	February 25, 2019	Rachel Bendayan	█ Liberal
Beauce	August 23, 2018	Maxime Bernier	█ Conservative	Resigned from caucus	September 14, 2018		█ People's
Burnaby South	September 14, 2018	Kennedy Stewart	█ New Democratic	Resignation	February 25, 2019	Jagmeet Singh	█ New Democratic
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill	September 17, 2018	Leona Alleslev	█ Liberal	Changed affiliation			█ Conservative
York—Simcoe	September 30, 2018	Peter Van Loan	█ Conservative	Resignation	February 25, 2019	Scot Davidson	█ Conservative
Parry Sound—Muskoka	November 7, 2018	Tony Clement	█ Conservative	Resigned from caucus			█ Independent
Brampton East	November 30, 2018	Raj Grewal	█ Liberal	Resigned from caucus			█ Independent
Nanaimo—Ladysmith	January 2, 2019	Sheila Malcolmson	█ New Democratic	Resigned	May 6, 2019	Paul Manly	█ Green
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	January 29, 2019	Nicola Di Iorio	█ Liberal	Resignation
Kings—Hants	February 10, 2019	Scott Brison	█ Liberal	Resignation
Whitby	March 20, 2019	Celina Caesar-Chavannes	█ Liberal	Resigned from caucus			█ Independent
Markham—Stouffville	April 2, 2019	Jane Philpott	█ Liberal	Removed from caucus			█ Independent
Vancouver Granville	April 2, 2019	Jody Wilson-Raybould	█ Liberal	Removed from caucus			█ Independent
Langley—Aldergrove	June 20, 2019	Mark Warawa	█ Conservative	Death in office
Calgary Forest Lawn	August 2, 2019	Deepak Obhrai	█ Conservative	Death in office
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	August 16, 2019	Pierre Nantel	█ New Democratic	Removed from caucus	August 16, 2019		█ Independent

2015

• October 19, 2015: The Liberal Party of Canada wins a majority government in the 42nd Canadian federal election. Outgoing Prime Minister Stephen Harper announces his intention to resign as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
• October 22, 2015: Gilles Duceppe resigns as leader of the Bloc Québécois and is replaced on an interim-basis by Rivière-du-Nord MP Rhéal Fortin.
• November 4, 2015: Justin Trudeau is sworn in as Prime Minister of Canada.
• November 5, 2015: Sturgeon River—Parkland MP and former cabinet minister Rona Ambrose is elected interim Conservative leader.
• December 3, 2015: The 42nd Parliament is convened.

2016

• March 23, 2016: Jim Hillyer, Conservative MP for Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner dies of a heart attack.
• April 10, 2016: 52% of delegates at the 2016 NDP convention voted in support of a leadership review motion to hold a leadership election within 24 months. Party leader Tom Mulcair announces he will stay on as leader until his replacement is chosen.
• August 15, 2016: Mauril Belanger, Liberal MP for Ottawa—Vanier dies of ALS.
• August 26, 2016: Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Conservative MP for Calgary Heritage resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
• September 9, 2016: Strength in Democracy, a party which had three incumbent MPs among its 17 candidates in the last election is deregistered by Elections Canada for failure to file papers maintaining its party status.
• September 23, 2016: Jason Kenney, Conservative MP for Calgary Midnapore resigns his seat to seek the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta.

2017

• February 1, 2017: John McCallum, Liberal MP for Markham—Thornhill resigns his seat to become Ambassador to China.
• February 6, 2017: Stéphane Dion, Liberal MP for Saint-Laurent resigns his seat to become Ambassador to Germany and Special Envoy of Canada to the European Union and Europe.
• March 18, 2017: Martine Ouellet is acclaimed as leader of the Bloc Québécois.
• May 27, 2017: Andrew Scheer is elected leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
• July 4, 2017: Rona Ambrose, Conservative MP for Sturgeon River—Parkland resigns her seat in the House of Commons.
• August 31, 2017: Calgary Skyview MP Darshan Kang resigns from the Liberal caucus amid sexual harassment allegations.
• September 14, 2017: Arnold Chan, Liberal MP for Scarborough—Agincourt dies of cancer.
• October 1, 2017: Jagmeet Singh is elected leader of the New Democratic Party.
• December 1, 2017: Denis Lemieux, Liberal MP for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord resigns his seat in the House of Commons.

2018

• February 28, 2018: Citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet, seven Bloc Québécois MPs resign from the party caucus, establishing the Groupe parlementaire québécois for parliamentary purposes, while remaining independent of any electoral political party. Only Xavier Barsalou-Duval (Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères), Mario Beaulieu (La Pointe-de-l'Île), and Marilène Gill (Manicouagan) remain in the Bloc Québécois caucus.
• May 5, 2018: Gord Brown, Conservative MP for Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes dies of a heart attack.
• May 9, 2018: Members of the Groupe parlementaire québécois announce they will be forming a new political party, Québec debout.
• June 4, 2018: After losing a leadership review, Martine Ouellet announces she will step down as leader of the Bloc Québécois effective June 11, 2018.
• June 6, 2018: Michel Boudrias and Simon Marcil, Québec debout MPs for Terrebonne and Mirabel, respectively, announce they will return to the Bloc Québécois caucus as a result of Martine Ouellet's resignation as party leader. Citing the Bloc's vote the previous weekend to focus exclusively on Quebec sovereignty, Québec debout spokesman Rhéal Fortin announces that he and the party's other four MPs will not rejoin the Bloc Québécois.
• August 3, 2018: Tom Mulcair, NDP MP for Outremont resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
• August 23, 2018: Beauce MP Maxime Bernier resigns from the Conservative caucus in disagreement with the leadership of Andrew Scheer. Bernier announces his intention to form a new federal party.
• September 14, 2018:
  • Three weeks after leaving the Conservative caucus, Beauce MP Maxime Bernier formally launches the People's Party of Canada, becoming its first MP.
  • Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby South, resigns to run for mayor of Vancouver, triggering a by-election in his riding.
• September 17, 2018:
  • All five Québec debout MPs – Rhéal Fortin (Rivière-du-Nord), Monique Pauzé (Repentigny), Louis Plamondon (Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel), Gabriel Ste-Marie (Joliette), and Luc Thériault (Montcalm) – announce they will rejoin the Bloc Québécois, officially dissolving Quebec debout.
  • Leona Alleslev, Liberal MP for Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, crosses the floor to join the Conservatives, citing concerns for the Liberal's handling of the economy, foreign and security policies, and international trade.
• September 30, 2018: Peter Van Loan, Conservative MP for York—Simcoe resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
• November 7, 2018: Parry Sound—Muskoka MP Tony Clement resigns from the Conservative caucus, at the request of leader Andrew Scheer, due to a sexting scandal.
• November 30, 2018: Brampton East MP Raj Grewal resigns from the Liberal caucus to enter treatment due to a gambling addiction.

2019

• January 2, 2019: Sheila Malcolmson, NDP MP for Nanaimo—Ladysmith resigns her seat to seek election in the British Columbia provincial riding of Nanaimo.
• January 17, 2019: As no other candidate had entered the race by the January 15 nomination deadline, Yves-François Blanchet is acclaimed leader of the Bloc Québécois.
• January 29, 2019: Nicola Di Iorio, Liberal MP for Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
• February 10, 2019: Scott Brison, Liberal MP for Kings—Hants resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
• February 25, 2019: By-elections are held in Outremont, York—Simcoe and Burnaby South, electing Liberal Rachel Bendayan, Conservative Scot Davidson, and New Democrat Jagmeet Singh, respectively.
• March 20, 2019: Whitby MP Celina Caesar-Chavannes resigns from the Liberal caucus.
• April 2, 2019: Markham—Stouffville MP Jane Philpott and Vancouver Granville MP Jody Wilson-Raybould are removed from the Liberal caucus.
• May 6, 2019: A by-election is held in Nanaimo—Ladysmith, electing Green candidate Paul Manly.
• June 20, 2019: Mark Warawa, Conservative MP for Langley—Aldergrove dies of cancer.
• August 2, 2019: Deepak Obhrai, Conservative MP for Calgary Forest Lawn dies from liver cancer.
• August 16, 2019: Pierre Nantel is removed from the New Democratic Party caucus and de-selected as the NDP candidate for Longueuil—Saint-Hubert after reports surfaced of ongoing discussions regarding Nantel joining the Green Party of Canada. He announces that he is now an independent MP.
• August 19, 2019: Pierre Nantel repeats that he will remain an independent MP until the end of his term in the current Parliament and announces that he will be a candidate for the Green Party of Canada in the election for the next Parliament.
• August 22, 2019: Due to the same-sex marriage controversy, Singh announced that the NDP would not support the Conservatives if they hold the balance of power after the election.
• September 3, 2019: Based on their current climate plans, Elizabeth May announced that she wouldn't be prepared to prop up any minority government.
• September 10, 2019: The Rhinoceros Party nominated a candidate named Maxime Bernier in Beauce, the riding of People's Party leader Maxime Bernier.
• September 11, 2019: Parliament dissolved and writs of election dropped.
• September 13, 2019: Elizabeth May announces that her party will conduct more thorough "re-vetting" of candidates after a couple of candidates made "anti-abortion" statements.
• September 15, 2019: Scheer says he will stand by candidates despite "controversial" comments in the past as long as the candidate apologizes, and takes responsibility for said comments.
• September 16, 2019: Maxime Bernier is invited to the debates organized by the Leaders' Debates Commission.

Target seats

The following is a list of ridings which had been lost by the indicated party in the 2015 election by less than 15%. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 86 seats in which they lost by under 15%, ranked by the percent margin. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost. Based on a uniform swing, the Conservatives would need to win 71 seats to win a majority, making Chicoutimi—Le Fjord the tipping point riding. Highlighted seats indicate ridings whose incumbents represent a party different from the one elected in 2015.

Liberal	Conservative
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte (Cons) 0.17% Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River (NDP) 0.27% Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères (BQ) 0.36% Kitchener—Conestoga (Cons) 0.53% Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup (Cons) 0.56% Jonquière (NDP) 0.71% Hochelaga (NDP) 0.96% Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (NDP) 1.10% Burnaby South (NDP) 1.19% Longueuil—Saint-Hubert (NDP) 1.21% Salaberry—Suroît (NDP) 1.25% Trois-Rivières (NDP) 1.60% Beloeil—Chambly (NDP) 1.73% Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola (Cons) 2.35% Calgary Confederation (Cons) 2.38% Hamilton Mountain (NDP) 2.40% South Surrey—White Rock (Cons) 2.54% Richmond Centre (Cons) 2.85% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski (NDP) 3.04% Carleton (Cons) 3.12% Simcoe North (Cons) 3.71% Drummond (NDP) 3.92% Flamborough—Glanbrook (Cons) 4.34% Parry Sound—Muskoka (Cons) 4.42% Chatham-Kent—Leamington (Cons) 4.48% Elmwood—Transcona (NDP) 4.63% Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo (Cons) 4.84% Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou (NDP) 4.88% Milton (Cons) 4.94% La Pointe-de-l'Île (BQ) 5.01% Terrebonne (BQ) 5.02% Joliette (BQ) 5.08% Cariboo—Prince George (Cons) 5.15% Port Moody—Coquitlam (NDP) 5.15% Beauport—Limoilou (Cons) 5.16% Huron—Bruce (Cons) 5.23% Perth—Wellington (Cons) 5.35% Mirabel (BQ) 5.38% Rivière-du-Nord (BQ) 5.69% Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing (NDP) 5.81% Markham—Unionville (Cons) 6.04% London—Fanshawe (NDP) 6.34% Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix (Cons) 6.63% Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes (Cons) 6.82% Richmond—Arthabaska (Cons) 6.90% Dufferin—Caledon (Cons) 7.17% Mégantic—L'Érable (Cons) 7.28% Repentigny (BQ) 7.39% Haldimand—Norfolk (Cons) 7.55% Sherbrooke (NDP) 7.57% Niagara Falls (Cons) 7.60% Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke (NDP) 7.66% Regina—Lewvan (NDP) 7.73% Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound (Cons) 7.84% Simcoe—Grey (Cons) 8.00% Timmins—James Bay (NDP) 8.14% Chilliwack—Hope (Cons) 8.55% Langley—Aldergrove (Cons) 9.08% South Okanagan—West Kootenay (NDP) 9.15% Montcalm (BQ) 9.29% Barrie—Innisfil (Cons) 9.30% North Okanagan—Shuswap (Cons) 9.35% Durham (Cons) 9.38% Nanaimo—Ladysmith (NDP) 9.68% Brantford—Brant (Cons) 10.19% Outremont (NDP) 10.65% Oshawa (Cons) 10.83% Sarnia—Lambton (Cons) 11.55% Abitibi—Témiscamingue (NDP) 11.87% Manicouagan (BQ) 11.88% Calgary Forest Lawn (Cons) 12.02% Cowichan—Malahat—Langford (NDP) 12.17% Hamilton Centre (NDP) 12.17% York—Simcoe (Cons) 12.48% Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry (Cons) 12.51% Brandon—Souris (Cons) 12.96% Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock (Cons) 13.08% Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke (Cons) 13.17% Oxford (Cons) 13.48% Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston (Cons) 14.11% Wellington—Halton Hills (Cons) 14.42% Edmonton West (Cons) 14.44% New Westminster—Burnaby (NDP) 14.49% Laurier—Sainte-Marie (NDP) 14.61% North Island—Powell River (NDP) 14.74% Lac-Saint-Jean (Cons) 14.83%	Elmwood—Transcona (NDP) 0.14% Edmonton Mill Woods (Liberal) 0.18% Regina—Lewvan (NDP) 0.27% Kootenay—Columbia (NDP) 0.45% Hastings—Lennox and Addington (Liberal) 0.45% Calgary Centre (Liberal) 1.22% Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill (Liberal) 2.15% Edmonton Centre (Liberal) 2.24% Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon (Liberal) 2.32% Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge (Liberal) 2.49% Newmarket—Aurora (Liberal) 2.57% Kildonan—St. Paul (Liberal) 2.82% Whitby (Liberal) 2.86% York Centre (Liberal) 2.89% Northumberland—Peterborough South (Liberal) 2.95% King—Vaughan (Liberal) 3.18% Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam (Liberal) 3.28% Oakville North—Burlington (Liberal) 3.41% Burlington (Liberal) 3.50% Richmond Hill (Liberal) 3.58% Fundy Royal (Liberal) 3.79% Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River (NDP) 4.01% Cambridge (Liberal) 4.52% Vaughan—Woodbridge (Liberal) 4.85% New Brunswick Southwest (Liberal) 5.36% Kitchener South—Hespeler (Liberal) 5.59% St. Catharines (Liberal) 5.61% Essex (NDP) 5.73% Niagara Centre (Liberal) 5.97% Calgary Skyview(Liberal) 6.13% Eglinton—Lawrence (Liberal) 6.25% Kelowna—Lake Country (Liberal) 6.41% Markham—Stouffville (Liberal) 6.44% Mississauga—Lakeshore (Liberal) 6.49% Port Moody—Coquitlam (NDP) 6.58% Steveston—Richmond East (Liberal) 6.61% Saskatoon West (NDP) 6.68% Oakville (Liberal) 6.89% Kenora (Liberal) 7.04% Québec (Liberal) 7.11% South Okanagan—West Kootenay (NDP) 7.44% Mississauga—Streetsville (Liberal) 7.45% Louis-Hébert (Liberal) 7.66% Burnaby South (NDP) 7.96% Burnaby North—Seymour (Liberal) 8.25% Peterborough—Kawartha (Liberal) 8.75% Tobique—Mactaquac (Liberal) 9.59% Courtenay—Alberni (NDP) 9.84% Nanaimo—Ladysmith (NDP) 9.85% Hamilton Mountain (NDP) 10.19% Mississauga—Erin Mills (Liberal) 10.48% London West (Liberal) 10.49% London—Fanshawe (NDP) 10.58% Cloverdale—Langley City (Liberal) 10.75% Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (NDP) 11.92% Kanata—Carleton (Liberal) 12.08% Pickering—Uxbridge (Liberal) 12.11% Jonquière (NDP) 12.30% Mount Royal (Liberal) 12.46% Edmonton Strathcona (NDP) 12.68% Drummond (NDP) 12.72% Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley (Liberal) 12.98% Miramichi—Grand Lake (Liberal) 13.00% Cowichan—Malahat—Langford (NDP) 13.13% Trois-Rivières (NDP) 13.20% Don Valley North (Liberal) 13.60% Sault Ste. Marie (Liberal) 13.63% Hamilton East—Stoney Creek (Liberal) 13.73% Scarborough—Agincourt (Liberal) 13.92% North Island—Powell River (NDP) 14.04% Chicoutimi—Le Fjord (Liberal) 14.49% Vancouver South (Liberal) 14.93% Brampton Centre (Liberal) 14.97%
New Democratic	Bloc Québécois
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord (Liberal) 1.37% Mirabel (BQ) 1.41% St. John's East (Liberal) 1.44% Kenora (Liberal) 1.62% Parkdale—High Park (Liberal) 1.80% Québec (Liberal) 1.86% Rivière-du-Nord (BQ) 1.91% Toronto—Danforth (Liberal) 2.17% Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (Liberal) 2.89% Davenport (Liberal) 2.90% Saint-Jean (Liberal) 4.09% Ottawa Centre (Liberal) 4.12% Niagara Centre (Liberal) 4.19% Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge (Liberal) 4.26% Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères (BQ) 4.30% Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo (Cons) 4.48% Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup (Cons) 4.79% Lac-Saint-Jean (Cons) 4.81% Nickel Belt (Liberal) 5.02% Beauport—Limoilou (Cons) 5.10% Laurentides—Labelle (Liberal) 5.75% Edmonton Griesbach (Cons) 5.94% Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine (Liberal) 6.21% Hamilton East—Stoney Creek (Liberal) 6.28% Oshawa (Cons) 6.30% Burnaby North—Seymour (Liberal) 6.48% La Pointe-de-l'Île (BQ) 6.82% Richmond—Arthabaska (Cons) 7.32% Terrebonne (BQ) 7.40% Thérèse-De Blainville (Liberal) 7.57% Joliette (BQ) 7.61% Sarnia—Lambton (Cons) 7.68% Montarville (Liberal) 7.86% Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam (Liberal) 8.03% Compton—Stanstead (Liberal) 9.47% Saskatoon—University (Cons) 10.00% Cariboo—Prince George (Cons) 10.81% Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne (Liberal) 11.28% Acadie—Bathurst (Liberal) 11.31% Saskatoon—Grasswood (Cons) 11.41% Repentigny (BQ) 11.42% Edmonton Centre (Liberal) 12.74% Montcalm (BQ) 13.16% Mégantic—L'Érable (Cons) 13.46% Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook (Liberal) 13.56% La Prairie (Liberal) 13.58% North Okanagan—Shuswap (Cons) 13.70% Louis-Hébert (Liberal) 14.04% Thunder Bay—Rainy River (Liberal) 14.36% Regina—Qu'Appelle (Cons) 14.49% LaSalle—Émard—Verdun (Liberal) 14.95% Surrey Centre (Liberal) 14.99%	Salaberry—Suroît (NDP) 2.07% Laurentides—Labelle (Liberal) 2.35% Hochelaga (NDP) 3.17% Beloeil—Chambly (NDP) 3.39% Longueuil—Saint-Hubert (NDP) 3.95% Montarville (Liberal) 4.12% Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (NDP) 4.37% Thérèse-De Blainville (Liberal) 5.41% Jonquière (NDP) 5.90% Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (Liberal) 6.95% Drummond (NDP) 7.64% Saint-Jean (Liberal) 8.35% Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne (Liberal) 8.36% Laurier—Sainte-Marie (NDP) 9.56% Québec (Liberal) 10.05% La Prairie (Liberal) 10.22% Chicoutimi—Le Fjord (Liberal) 10.57% Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup (Cons) 12.87% Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix (Cons) 14.37% Richmond—Arthabaska (Cons) 14.39% Châteauguay—Lacolle (Liberal) 14.74% Trois-Rivières (NDP) 14.83% Lac-Saint-Jean (Cons) 14.90%
	Green
	Victoria (NDP) 9.36% Nanaimo—Ladysmith (NDP) 13.44%

Notes

1. ^ The Green Party won this seat in a by-election on May 9, 2019.
2. ^ The Liberal Party won this seat in a by-election of February 25, 2019.
3. ^ The Conservative Party won this seat in a by-election on June 18, 2018.
4. ^ The Liberal Party won this seat in a by-election on December 11, 2017.
5. ^ The Liberal Party won this seat in a by-election on October 23, 2017.

Opinion polls

Main articles: Opinion polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election and Opinion polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election, by constituency

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during campaign period of the 2019 Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Evolution of voting intentions during the pre-campaign period of the 43rd Canadian federal election. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals. – Source code for plot generation is available here.

Candidates

Main articles: List of candidates by riding for the 2019 Canadian federal election and Star candidate

Election spending

Before the campaign, there are no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend: spending rules are only in force after the writs have been dropped and the campaign has begun.

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates

Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Similarly, electoral district associations receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.

Registered third parties

A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more. There are strict limits on advertising expenses, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. Registered third parties are subject to an election advertising expenses limit of $150,000. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.

Elections Canada climate change advertising warning

On August 19, 2019, some environmental groups were warned by Elections Canada that any third party that promotes information about climate change during the election period could be deemed to be engaging in partisan activity. Registered charities with a charitable tax status would be required to register as a third party for the election if they engaged in any partisan activity incurring $500, which would include advertising and surveys, or otherwise risk their charitable tax status. These regulations are due to People's Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier expressing doubts about the legitimacy of climate change, because a third party that advertises the dangers of climate change during the election period may be considered to be indirectly advocating against the People's Party. After confusion about the warning, Elections Canada released a public statement to clarify that the prohibition applied only to advertising, not speech in general the following day.

True North Strong & Free Advertising Corp. billboard

On August 25, 2019, billboards purchased by a True North Strong & Free Advertising Corp., a third party promoting the People's Party of Canada's immigration policy, with the text "Say NO to Mass Immigration" appeared in Vancouver, Calgary, Regina, and Halifax. True North Strong & Free Advertising Corp is run by Frank Smeenk, the chief executive of a Toronto-based mining exploration company. The Peoples Party of Canada told the media that it had no contact with the group. Initially, Pattison Outdoor Advertising defended the billboards, arguing that they complied with the Advertising Standards Canada Code but later decided to pull them and said that they would review their protocols on advocacy advertising. The Pattison president later revealed that the billboards would have stayed up had True North Strong & Free identified themselves on the billboards and how the public could get in touch with them.

See also

• By-elections to the 42nd Canadian Parliament
• 2017 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election
• 2017 New Democratic Party leadership election
• 2017 Bloc Québécois leadership election
• 2019 Bloc Québécois leadership election

External links

• Elections Canada