2019 European Parliament election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search

2019 European Parliament election

← 2014 23–26 May 2019[1][2] 2024 →

All 751 seats to the European Parliament
376 seats needed for a majority
  (Manfred Weber) EPP Summit, 19 October 2017 (37534170170) (cropped).jpg 08. Frans Timmermans (7581827152) (cropped).jpg JanZahradil.jpg
Leader Manfred Weber Frans Timmermans Jan Zahradil
Alliance EPP S&D ECR
Leader's seat Germany Netherlands Czech Republic
Last election 221 seats 191 seats 70 seats
Current seats 217 187 76

  Guy Verhofstadt die 30 Martis 2012.jpg Violeta Tomič.jpg Eickhout, Bas-9750 (cropped).jpg Ska Keller (10851856583).jpg
Leader Guy Verhofstadt Violeta Tomić (pictured)
Nico Cué
Bas Eickhout
Ska Keller
Alliance ALDE GUE/NGL Greens/EFA
Leader's seat Belgium (Dutch-speaking college) Slovenia
Belgium (French-speaking college)
Netherlands
Germany
Last election 67 seats 52 seats 50 seats
Current seats 68 52 52

  Nigel Farage (45718080574) (cropped).jpg Nicolas Bay 07 (cropped).jpg
Leader Nigel Farage[3] Nicolas Bay (pictured)
Marcel de Graaff
Alliance EFDD ENF
Leader's seat South East England North West France
Netherlands
Last election 48 seats N/A
Current seats 41 37

Incumbent President of the European Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker
EPP



Flag of Europe.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
the European Union
Flag of Europe.svg European Union portal

The next election to the European Parliament is expected to be held between 23 and 26 May 2019 and will be the ninth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979. A total of 751 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) currently represent more than 512 million people from 28 member states.

In February 2018, the European Parliament voted to decrease the number of MEPs from 751 to 705 if the United Kingdom were to withdraw from the European Union on 29 March 2019.[4] However, the United Kingdom is now due to participate alongside other EU member states after an extension of the Article 50 process.[5]

New law[edit]

According to the European Council, on 7 June 2018 the Council agreed at ambassador level to improve the EU electoral law and to reform old laws from the 1976 Electoral Act.

The purpose of the reform would be to improve participation in elections, raise understanding of their European character and prevent irregular voting while at the same time respecting the constitutional and electoral traditions of the member states.[6]

The proposed draft would forbid double voting and voting in third countries, thus improving the visibility of European political parties.[6] To avoid double voting, contact authorities would be established to exchange data on voters. This process would have to start at least six weeks before the EP elections.[6]

The European Parliament gave its consent on 4 July 2018 and the Act was adopted by the Council on 13 July 2018. It will come into effect following ratification by the Member States.[7]

Parties and candidates[edit]

The Spitzenkandidat process involves the nomination by European political parties of candidates for the role of Commission President, the party winning the most seats in Parliament receiving the first opportunity to attempt to form a majority in Parliament to back their candidate (akin to how Prime Ministers are elected in national parliamentary democracies). This process was first used in 2014 and was opposed by some in the Council. The future of the process is uncertain, but the Parliament has attempted to codify the process and the parties are almost certain to select the candidates again.[8] On 23 January 2018, the Constitutional Affairs Committee adopted a text stating that the Spitzenkandidat process could not be overturned, and that Parliament "will be ready to reject any candidate in the investiture procedure of the commission president who was not appointed as a Spitzenkandidat in the run-up to the European elections".[9]

In May 2018, a Eurobarometer poll suggested that 49% of the 27,601 individuals from all 28 EU countries surveyed think that the Spitzenkandidat process will help them vote in the next European elections while 70% also think that the process requires a real debate on European issues.[10]

European People's Party[edit]

Incumbent Jean-Claude Juncker has stated he will not seek a second term as President.[11]

Two candidates sought the nomination of the EPP:

At their 2018 Congress in Helsinki, the EPP elected Manfred Weber as their Spitzenkandidat for President of the European Commission.[14]

Party of European Socialists[edit]

Previous candidate Martin Schulz left the European Parliament in 2017 to head the Social Democratic Party of Germany, but he has stepped down from the latter position in 2018.

Two candidates were nominated by PES member parties and organizations:

  • Maroš Šefčovič (Vice-President of the Commission) announced in September bid to head Commission.[15]
  • Frans Timmermans (first Vice-President of the Commission, previous Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister) announced in October bid to head Commission.[16]

Šefčovič announced his withdrawal in November and supported Frans Timmermans as the Common Candidate.[17]

The party will convene an extraordinary Congress in Lisbon to ratify the election of the candidate and to vote upon the manifesto.

European Conservatives and Reformists[edit]

Jan Zahradil, an MEP for the Czech Civic Democratic Party, is the Spitzenkandidat of the European Conservatives and Reformists.

European Green Party[edit]

Like in 2014, the Greens adopted the principle to have two leading candidates for the European Elections 2019.[18] Unlike in 2014 where the candidates were chosen through an open online primary elections, the two leading candidates were elected by the Council of the Party in Berlin in November 2018.[19] Four people, two of them being currently MEPs, have declared their candidacy:[19]

At their 2018 Congress in Berlin, the party elected Ska Keller and Bas Eickhout as their Spitzenkandidat for the President of the European Commission.

European Free Alliance[edit]

Oriol Junqueras, a Catalan historian, academic and former Vice President of Catalonia who is currently imprisoned because of his involvement in the 2017 Catalan independence referendum, is the Spitzenkandidat of the European Free Alliance.[20][21]

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats[edit]

Rather than present a single candidate, the ALDE group presented a "Team Europe" of seven people as the alliance's leading candidates.[22]

Party of the European Left[edit]

The designated candidates are Violeta Tomič from Slovenia and Belgian trade-unionist Nico Cué.[26]

New parties[edit]

The year 2019 will see the debut of new parties such as Confederation and Kukiz'15 of Poland, Czech Pirate Party of Czech Republic, Alliance, Basta! and Liberal Initiative of Portugal, USR and PLUS of Romania, LMŠ of Slovenia, Human Shield, Most and Workers' Front of Croatia, L'SNS and Sme Rodina of Slovakia. For the liberals, the biggest hope is that the new La République En Marche! party of French President Emmanuel Macron will choose to join ALDE after the elections.[27][28][29] However, En Marche is expected to be more likely to try to form a new parliamentary group of pro-European centrists who support Macron's plans to reform the European institutions, thus drawing away members from ALDE, EPP and S&D.[30][31] Possible partners for such a project might include Spanish Ciudadanos, Progressive Slovakia and the Hungarian Momentum Movement.[30] While it is likely that En Marche will put together the minimum of 25 MEPs needed to form a group, the requirement to include MEPs from at least seven member states would be more difficult.[30]

The European Spring initiated from the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 will run as a pan-European party alliance with one unified vision for Europe, the European Green New Deal.[32] The most prominent figure is the former Greek minister Yanis Varoufakis, who will run as candidate in the constituency of Germany.

Volt Europa, a pan-European progressive movement, will run in several countries under the same name in the attempt to form its own group.[citation needed]

The leader of the Italian Five Star Movement has expressed a desire to form an anti-establishment faction of their own within the EU.[33]

Pablo Iglesias, Catarina Martins, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and several others have formed an alliance in Maintenant le Peuple opposed to the PEL, but they are likely remain in GUE/NGL.[citation needed]

The Movement is an alliance of right-wing populist parties set up by Steve Bannon with the purpose of contesting the European elections. Participating parties include Lega Nord, People's Party of Belgium and Brothers of Italy and possibly French National Rally. Originally envisioned as an attempt to unite the right-wing populist parties in Europe, The Movement has so far been snubbed by the Alternative for Germany,[34] the Freedom Party of Austria[35] and the UK Independence Party.[36]

Televised debates[edit]

Eurovision debate candidates. Left to right: Zahradil, Cué, Keller, Vestager, Timmermans, Weber
Date Time (CEST) Institute Participants Location Language Main presenter(s)
17 April 2019 21:00 France 24 and RFI[37] Timmermans and Weber Strasbourg French Caroline de Camaret (France 24) and Dominique Baillard (RFI)
17 April 2019 22:00 France 24[38][39] Timmermans and Weber Strasbourg English Catherine Nicholson (France 24)
29 April 2019 19:00 Politico Europe[40] Eickhout, Timmermans, Tomić, Verhofstadt and Zahradil Maastricht English Ryan Heath (Politico Europe) and Rianne Letschert (Maastricht University)
2 May 2019 18:00 Financial Times[41] Keller, Timmermans, Verhofstadt and Weber Florence English Martin Sandbu (Financial Times)
7 May 2019 20:15 ARD[42] Timmermans and Weber Cologne German Ellen Ehni and Andreas Cichowicz (both ARD)
15 May 2019 21:00 EBU[43] Cué, Keller, Timmermans, Vestager (ALDE), Weber, and Zahradil Brussels English Emilie Tran Nguyen (France Television), Markus Preiss (ARD Germany), and Annastiina Heikkila (YLE Finland)
16 May 2019 20:15 ZDF and ORF[44] Timmermanns and Weber Berlin German Peter Frey (ZDF) and Ingrid Thurnher (ORF)

Apportionment of seats[edit]

Potential post-Brexit reallocation of seats[edit]

If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union before the newly-elected MEPs are seated on 1 July 2019, the numbers of seats will be altered to what is considered by the S&D co-rapporteur Pedro Silva Pereira as "a fairer allocation of seats, finally complying with the Lisbon Treaty and the principle of degressive proportionality".[45]

Apportionment in the European Parliament
Country 2007 2009 Dec.

2011[46]

July
2013
2014 2019 Proposals for 2019 after the
removal of UK seats[47][48]
Cambridge Compromise Decision
(Feb 2018)
Change
from 2014
Minimising
Gini
Minimising
malapportionment
 Germany 99 99 99 99 96 96 96 96 96 Steady
 France 78 72 74 74 74 74 79 96 79 Increase 5
 United Kingdom 78 72 73 73 73 73 Decrease 73
 Italy 78 72 73 73 73 73 73 89 76 Increase 3
 Spain 54 50 54 54 54 54 57 70 59 Increase 5
 Poland 54 50 51 51 51 51 47 58 52 Increase 1
 Romania 35 33 33 33 32 32 27 33 33 Increase 1
 Netherlands 27 25 26 26 26 26 24 29 29 Increase 3
 Belgium 24 22 22 22 21 21 18 21 21 Steady
 Czech Republic 24 22 22 22 21 21 17 20 21 Steady
 Greece 24 22 22 22 21 21 17 20 21 Steady
 Hungary 24 22 22 22 21 21 16 19 21 Steady
 Portugal 24 22 22 22 21 21 17 20 21 Steady
 Sweden 19 18 20 20 20 20 16 19 21 Increase 1
 Austria 18 17 19 19 18 18 15 18 19 Increase 1
 Bulgaria 18 17 18 18 17 17 13 15 17 Steady
 Denmark 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 Increase 1
 Finland 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 Increase 1
 Slovakia 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 Increase 1
 Ireland 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 Increase 2
 Croatia 12 11 11 10 11 12 Increase 1
 Lithuania 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 11 Steady
 Latvia 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 Steady
 Slovenia 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Steady
 Estonia 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 Increase 1
 Cyprus 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 Steady
 Luxembourg 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Steady
 Malta 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Steady
Total 785 736 754 766 751 751 639 736 705 Decrease 46

Decisions on the apportionment of seats in the Parliament are governed by article 14 of the Treaty of Lisbon. This article lays down that "[t]he European Parliament shall be composed of representatives of the Union's citizens. They shall not exceed seven hundred and fifty in number, plus the President. Representation of citizens shall be degressively proportional, with a minimum threshold of six members per Member State. No Member State shall be allocated more than ninety-six seats".

Due to the Brexit process, the United Kingdom's 73 MEPs were expected to be removed a few months before the 2019 European Parliament election, but this now looks unlikely to happen because of the Brexit extension until October 31. In April 2017, a group of European lawmakers discussed what should be done about the vacated seats. One plan, supported by Enrico Letta, Gianni Pittella and Emmanuel Macron, was to replace the 73 seats with a pan-European constituency list. Other options which were considered include dropping the British seats without replacement and reassigning some or all of the existing seats from other countries to reduce inequality of representation.[47] A plan to reduce the number of seats to 705 was approved by the Parliament in February 2018. It involves redistributing 27 seats to under-represented members and reserving the remaining 46 for future EU expansions. A proposal by the Constitutional Affairs Committee to create a pan-member constituency was rejected by the Parliament at the same time.[4]

Other changes[edit]

In January 2018, the French government unveiled a bill which would switch the country from using regional constituencies to a single nationwide constituency.[49] The allocation of seats for Ireland increased from 11 to 13. There had been a proposal that the two additional seats be allocated to Irish citizens living in Northern Ireland. This was supported by Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party, and also by Guy Verhofstadt, but was strongly resisted by the Democratic Unionist Party.[50] Danuta Hübner (Committee on Constitutional Affairs) said: "It is amazing what you are saying because it is the Republic of Ireland which is against this idea of giving the right to vote to nationals in third countries – so we have a problem here".[50] The two additional seats were instead allocated to two of the three constituencies in Ireland, with a special provision that the last candidate elected in these constituencies be designated to account for circumstances where the United Kingdom had not left the European Union at the time of the sitting of the Parliament.

Seat projections[edit]

There are no pan-European polls for the European elections in all 27/28 member states. However, there are several organisations calculating the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections. Since the United Kingdom notified its intention to leave the European Union in March 2017, the United Kingdom was expected not to participate in the European elections and was therefore excluded from projections. Due to recent political developments, some organisations have started providing projections for a with-UK scenario. On 10 April 2019, the European Council extended the Brexit deadline to 31 October 2019, or the first day of the month after that in which the Withdrawal Agreement is passed, whichever comes first. Consequently, the UK will probably have to participate in the European elections, unless an agreement in the UK Parliament is reached. The political and legal situation remains highly uncertain.[51]

Opinion polls by number of seats
Institute Date EPP S&D ECR ALDE Greens–EFA GUE-NGL EFDD ENF NI Others far-right (new+NI) Others far-left (new+NI) Others moderate (new+NI)
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[52]
(with UK; new group scenario)
2019-05-14 183 147 52 76
(Without En Marche)
57 48 19
(as 5SDD)
73
(as EAPN)
47 2 47
(21 from En Marche)
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[53]
(without UK; new group scenario)
2019-05-14 191 137 43 69
(Without En Marche)
49 49 21
(as 5SDD)
76
(as EAPN)
23 2 45
(22 from En Marche)
EU19.EU[54]
(with United Kingdom)
2019-05-08 157 174 75 99 49 46 29 85 37
election.de[55]
(with United Kingdom)
2019-05-05 175
(no Fidesz)
147 81
(13 from Fidesz)
99 63 53 22
(as 5SDD)
79
(as EAPN)
32
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[56]
(with United Kingdom)
2019-05-01 173 139 57 75
(no En Marche)
58 48 56 56 29 3 57
(23 from En Marche)
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[56]
(without United Kingdom)
2019-05-01 178 125 49 74
(no En Marche)
50 50 36 57 30 4 52
(24 from En Marche)
Europe Elects[57]
(with United Kingdom)
2019-04-30 180 159 61 102 51 49 82
(as EAPN)
12+55
Europe Elects[58]
(with United Kingdom)
2019-04-25 180 161 64 104 51 49 85
(as EAPN)
13+44
EU19.EU[59]
(without United Kingdom)
2019-04-23 181 145 58 107 49 45 25 75 20
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[60]
(with United Kingdom)
2019-04-16 177 148 58 73
(no En Marche)
57 48 40 63 35 3 49
(22 from En Marche)
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[60]
(without United Kingdom)
2019-04-16 185 132 47 67
(no En Marche)
50 51 27 57 39 3 47
(22 from En Marche)
Bidimedia[61]
(with United Kingdom)
2019-04-12 175 158 74 96 49 47 32 63 7+50
EU19.EU[62]
(with United Kingdom)
2019-04-12 176 171 76 98 49 46 27 74 34
Europe Elects[63] 2019-04-10 184 135 63 106 47 51 35 63 11+10
Europe Elects[64] 2019-04-10 184 135 63 106 47 51 24 84
(as EAPN)
11+10
EU19.EU[65] 2019-04-05 193 140 60 99 48 48 19
(only M5S)
75 23
European Parliament[66] 2019-03-29 188 142 43 72

(no En Marche)

51 49 30 61 37 22
(only En Marche)
EU19.EU[67] 2019-03-29 187 145 61 99 47 50 22
(only M5S)
74 20
EU19.EU[68] 2019-03-27 184 146 59 102 45 49 22
(only M5S)
78 20
Europe Elects[69] 2019-03-25 177 135 64 105 46 53 40 62 12+11
EU19.EU[70] 2019-03-21 180 135 67 102 50 48 23
(only M5S)
81 19
EU19.EU[71] 2019-03-18 181 135 65 101 50 48 24
(only M5S)
82 19
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[72] 2019-03-15 183 134 40 73
(no En Marche)
46 49 32 60 38 3 47
(21 from En Marche)
election.de[73] 2019-03-15 175
(no Fidesz)
132 59 98 57 53 61
(12 from Fidesz)
62 8
EU19.EU[74] 2019-03-14 178 143 58 101 47 51 24
(only M5S)
83 20
EU19.EU[75] 2019-03-06 186 142 60 94 48 49 25
(only M5S)
81 20
EU19.EU[76] 2019-03-04 185 141 59 94 47 52 25
(only M5S)
83 19
EU19.EU[77] 2019-03-01 182 138 59 97 47 53 26
(only M5S)
83 20
European Parliament[78] 2019-02 181 135 46 75 49 47 39 59 74
EU19.EU[79] 2019-02-26 173 144 59 99 50 51 26
(only M5S)
82 21
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[80] 2019-02-24 185 139 46 68
(no En Marche)
43 50 34 59 40 3 38
(21 from En Marche)
EU19.EU[81] 2019-02-21 170 141 62 104 48 50 23
(only M5S)
84 23
EU19.EU[82] 2019-02-20 168 143 63 106 48 49 24
(only M5S)
83 23
Eurobarometer[83] 2019-02-18 183 135 51 75
(no En Marche)
45 46 43 59 22+58
EU19.EU[84] 2019-02-16 167 143 63 104 47 47 25
(only M5S)
85 24
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[85] 2019-02-03 191 138 56 68
(no En Marche)
45 52 35 56 39 3 36
(21 from En Marche)
European Parliament[78] 2019-01 186 129 43 77 46 45 34 60 85
Europe Elects[86] ("United Right Scenario") 2019-01-30 191 129 98 47 56 132 12+40
Europe Elects[86] ("EFDD breaks apart scenario") 2019-01-30 177 129 93 98 47 56 77 12+16
Europe Elects[87] 2019-01-13 177 129 62 98 47 56 46 62 12+16
Der (europäische) Föderalist[88] 2019-01-08 181 130 58 90 49 57 14 63 11+52
European Parliament[78] 2018-12 185 131 45 78 42 49 46 62 67
Europe Elects[89] 2018-12-05 178 133 53 96 43 58 47 61 13+21
European Parliament[78] 2018-11 181 140 43 78 46 50 45 59 63
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[90] 2018-11-29 186 140 43 76
(no En Marche)
42 56 35 56 36 3 32
(18 from En Marche)
Europe Elects[91] 2018-11-11 172 136 54 98 45 60 48 61 10+21
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[92] 2018-10-28 186 136 42 77
(no En Marche)
40 58 38 53 38 3 34
(21 from En Marche)
Instituto Cattaneo[93] 2018-10-09 180 139 54 93 45 63 55 63 13
Europe Elects[94] 2018-10-09 177 134 50 98 40 61 50 61 9+25
Politico Europe[95] 2018-10-08 178 137 48 83
(21 En Marche)
40 58 53 59 6+33
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[96] 2018-09-22 182 139 46 76
(no En Marche)
36 61 40 52 36 3 33
(21 from En Marche)
Europe Elects[97] 2018-09-20 181 134 49 100 37 61 49 57 11+26
Der (europäische) Föderalist[98] 2018-09-19 178 140 50 95 42 60 21 59 10+50
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[99] 2018-09-12 187 141 44 72
(no En Marche)
33 60 39 52 39 4 33
(21 from En Marche)
Europe Elects[100] 2018-08-10 179 137 50 104 36 60 49 55 10+25
Thomson Reuters[101] 2018-07-28 180 154 42 104 34 56 59 63 13
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("dynamic scenario")[102] 2018-07-25 177 145 90 56 (En Marche)
53 (ALDE)
38 58 78 10
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("baseline scenario")[102] 2018-07-25 177 145 50 102 38 57 22 56 10+48
www.thenewfederalist.eu/Europe Elects[103] 2018-07-06 185 141 44 110 34 58 49 52 9+23
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("dynamic scenario")[104] 2018-05-29 178 138 84 57 (En Marche)
50 (ALDE)
37 56 66 12
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("baseline scenario")[104] 2018-05-29 178 137 43 103 37 55 23 46 12+44
treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[105] 2018-05-18 179 141 42 112 32 61 58 47 12+21
treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[106] 2018-04-17 180 143 42 112 33 60 58 46 9+22
Der (europäische) Föderalist[107] 2018-04-03 180 137 41 104 33 58 23 44 12+46
Der (europäische) Föderalist[108] 2018-02-05 179 142 47 102 33 65 42 41 27
Der (europäische) Föderalist[109] 2017-12-13 196 142 45 109 30 56 37 36 27
Der (europäische) Föderalist[110] 2017-10-16 192 150 45 106 28 55 38 37 27
Der (europäische) Föderalist[111] 2017-08-21 196 149 42 108 24 57 29 44 29
Der (europäische) Föderalist[112] 2017-06-27 201 155 38 109 23 55 28 42 27
Der (europäische) Föderalist[113] 2017-05-02 198 170 35 82 28 46 27 59 33
New allocation of seats without the United Kingdom approved
Der (europäische) Föderalist[113] 2017-05-02 198 186 68 88 35 47 36 59 34
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[114] 2017-03-28 181 181 74 75 29 58 40 48 51
Der (europäische) Föderalist[113] 2017-03-06 191 182 69 80 35 50 48 60 36
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[115] 2017-03-01 174 185 81 85 31 54 42 51 48
Der (europäische) Föderalist[113] 2017-01-16 191 180 63 82 40 48 48 68 31
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[116] 2017-01-07 189 170 71 82 28 63 38 60 49
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[116] 2016-12-01 195 176 72 81 35 57 38 57 42
Der (europäische) Föderalist[113] 2016-11-14 194 182 65 91 38 48 47 61 25
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[117] 2016-10-31 191 171 73 75 30 71 41 61 38
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[118] 2016-10-01 194 179 71 82 31 57 42 64 31
Der (europäische) Föderalist[113] 2016-09-13 189 181 62 91 38 47 53 63 27
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[119] 2016-09-01 189 176 74 86 32 59 40 54 32
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[119] 2016-08-13 191 184 72 86 32 60 40 58 21
Der (europäische) Föderalist[120] 2016-07-28 192 185 59 90 39 48 54 61 13
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[121] 2016-07-13 202 187 67 92 31 57 36 58 21
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[122] 2016-06-23 183 179 74 88 32 61 46 61 27
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[123] 2016-06-01 186 177 76 83 35 59 63 45 27
Der (europäische) Föderalist[124] 2016-05-25 187 174 63 85 40 55 51 70 12
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[125] 2016-05-02 187 178 69 89 27 66 56 49 23
Der (europäische) Föderalist[126] 2016-04-07 192 179 72 85 37 52 50 53 31
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[127] 2016-04-02 205 177 84 87 30 58 37 48 25
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[128] 2016-03-01 186 183 81 99 27 65 37 48 25
Der (europäische) Föderalist[126] 2016-02-07 196 183 70 82 34 51 51 55 29
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[129] 2016-02-02 191 186 86 79 27 69 39 51 23
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[130] 2016-01-04 194 187 76 95 28 66 37 48 20
Der (europäische) Föderalist[131] 2015-12-14 192 185 68 87 33 52 52 53 29
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[132] 2015-12-02 197 186 91 82 33 61 37 47 17
thenewfederalist.eu[133] 2015-11-17 196 201 88 76 31 62 42 42 13
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[134] 2015-11-01 197 203 88 75 31 61 42 42 12
Der (europäische) Föderalist[135] 2015-10-17 204 193 66 75 33 51 51 54 24
Der (europäische) Föderalist[136] 2015-08-21 204 190 70 74 35 56 47 49 26
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2015-07-03 206 193 80 68 36 69 30 39 30
Der (europäische) Föderalist[138] 2015-06-30 205 188 69 73 34 61 43 47 31
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[139] 2015-05-05 218 196 71 75 31 74 34 52
Der (europäische) Föderalist[140] 2015-05-03 205 193 62 80 32 60 44 (51) 24
Der (europäische) Föderalist[141] 2015-03-10 216 196 60 77 31 60 43 (49) 19
Der (europäische) Föderalist[142] 2015-01-12 212 190 59 70 40 65 47 (43) 25
Der (europäische) Föderalist[143] 2014-11-18 212 195 59 69 42 60 47 (43) 24
Der (europäische) Föderalist[144] 2014-09-23 223 196 61 67 39 53 47 (40) 25
Der (europäische) Föderalist[113] 2014-07-28 215 191 66 75 47 56 44 (40) 17
European election 2014 2014-05-25 221 191 70 67 50 52 48 (37) 15

Some observers[who?] consider that the European People's Party might remain the dominant political force in the chamber while populists might be stronger than they were.[145] However, Eurosceptics could be the first force in the chamber according to Charles de Marcilly[145] whilst centrist parties such as European People's Party and the continent's Socialists could decline.[146] The following table shows projections with percentages instead of seats.

Opinion polls by vote share
Institute Date EPP S&D ECR ALDE Greens/EFA GUE/NGL EFDD ENF NI Others Others far-right (new+NI) Others far-left (new+NI) Others moderate (new+NI)
Europe Elects[147] 2019-04-10 22.9% 18.0% 8.0% 13.1% 8.4% 7.3% 6.8% 8.4% 6.8%
Europe Elects[148] 2018-12-27 21.4% 17.8% 5.9% 12.7% 7.0% 7.5% 8.2% 9.2% 9.3%
Europe Elects[89] 2018-12-05 21.6% 17.9% 5.7% 13.1% 7.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.6% 1.0% 8.3%
Europe Elects[149] 2018-11-11 20.8% 17.6% 5.1% 13.3% 7.0% 8.8% 9.1% 9.6% 1.0% 7.8%
Europe Elects[149] 2018-10-26 20.9% 18.4% 5.0% 11.6% 6.4% 8.6% 9.3% 9.1% 1.1% 9.7%
Europe Elects[149] 2018-10-18 21.5% 18.4% 4.3% 12.0% 6.4% 8.7% 9.5% 9.3% 1.0% 8.9%
Europe Elects[150] 2018-10-14 21.3% 18.3% 3.9% 12.6% 6.3% 8.6% 9.5% 9.3% 1.0% 9.1%
Europe Elects[151] 2018-10-13 21.3% 18.4% 3.9% 12.5% 6.3% 8.6% 9.5% 9.3% 1.0% 9.1%
Europe Elects[151] 2018-10-12 21.3% 18.5% 3.9% 12.5% 6.5% 8.6% 9.6% 9.3% 1.0% 9.1%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[152] 2018-06-01 20% 19.5% 9.5% 12.5% 6% 8% 8.5% 7.5% 2% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[152] 2018-05-01 20.5% 21% 10.5% 13% 4.5% 8% 8% 7% 2% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[152] 2018-04-01 20.5% 19.5% 10% 14% 4.5% 7.5% 8% 6.5% 1.5% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[152] 2018-03-07 21% 20.5% 10% 12.5% 4.5% 7.5% 8.5% 6% 2.5% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[152] 2018-01-30 21% 22% 10% 13.5% 5% 7.5% 7.5% 5.5% 2% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[152] 2018-01-01 21% 22.5% 10% 12.5% 4.5% 8.5% 7.5% 5.5% 2% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[152] 2017-11-30 21.5% 22% 10% 12.5% 4% 8% 7% 6.5% 2% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[152] 2017-11-14 21.5% 21.5% 9.5% 13% 4% 8% 7% 6% 3% 6%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[152] 2017-10-06 21% 23% 9.5% 12.5% 4.5% 8% 4.5% 7% 3% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[152] 2017-09-14 22.5% 23% 9.5% 13% 4.5% 8% 4.5% 6% 3% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[152] 2017-06-14 22.5% 24% 8% 12.5% 4% 8% 4% 5.5% 3% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[152] 2017-05-22 22% 23% 8.5% 12% 4% 8% 4.5% 6.5% 3% ? ? ? ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[153] 2017-03-28 22% 23% 8.5% 8% 4% 7.5% 6% 7% 6.5% 7.5%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[154] 2017-03-01 21% 23.5% 9% 8.5% 4% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 6% 6.5%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[155] 2017-02-02 23% 20.5% 9.5% 8% 4.5% 8% 6% 8.5% 5.5% 6.5%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[156] 2017-01-07 23.5% 22% 9% 8.5% 4.5% 7.5% 6.5% 9% 3.5% 6.5%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[157] 2016-12-01 23.5% 22.5% 9% 8.5% 4.5% 7.5% 6.5% 8.5% 3.5% 6%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[117] 2016-10-31 23% 21% 9% 8% 5% 8% 7% 9% 3% 7%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[118] 2016-10-01 24% 22% 9% 9% 4% 8% 7% 9% 3% 5%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[158] 2016-09-01 25% 24% 10% 12% 4% 8% 5% 8% 4%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[119] 2016-08-13 26% 24% 10% 11% 4% 8% 5% 8% 4%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[121] 2016-07-13 27% 25% 9% 12% 4% 7% 5% 8% ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[159] 2016-06-23 24% 24% 10% 12% 4% 8% 6% 8% 4%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[123] 2016-06-01 25% 23% 10% 11% 5% 8% 6% 8% 4%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[160] 2016-05-22 25% 24% 10% 11% 4% 8% 6% 8% 4%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[161] 2016-05-02 25% 24% 9% 12% 4% 9% 7% 7% ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[127] 2016-04-02 27% 24% 11% 12% 4% 8% 5% 6% ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[128] 2016-03-01 25% 24% 11% 13% 4% 9% 5% 6% ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[162] 2016-02-02 25% 25% 11% 11% 4% 9% 5% 7% 3%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[130] 2016-01-04 26% 25% 10% 13% 4% 9% 5% 6% 2%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[132] 2015-12-02 26% 25% 12% 11% 5% 8% 5% 6% 2%
Europe Elects/thenewfederalist.eu[133] 2015-11-17 26% 27% 12% 10% 4% 8% 5% 6% 2%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[134] 2015-11-01 26% 27% 12% 10% 4% 8% 5% 6% 2%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[163] 2015-10-01 26% 26% 10% 11% 4% 9% 5% 6% 3%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[164] 2015-09-01 27% 26% 11% 10% 5% 9% 4% 5% 3%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[165] 2015-08-06 27% 26% 10% 9% 5% 10% 4% 5% 3%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2015-07-03 27% 26% 11% 9% 5% 9% 4% 5% 4%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[166] 2015-06-16 27% 25% 10% 10.5% 5% 9% 4% 5.5% 4%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[167] 2015-06-02 27% 26% 11% 9% 4% 9% 5% 9%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[139] 2015-05-05 29% 26% 9% 10% 4% 10% 5% 7%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[168] 2015-04-03 29% 27% 10% 9% 4% 9% 4% 8%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[169] 2015-03-12 29% 27% 10% 9% 4% 10% 4% 7%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[170] 2015-01-30 29% 27% 9% 10% 4% 9% 5% 7%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[170] 2014-12-30 29% 27% 10% 9% 4% 10% 4% 7%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[170] 2014-11-30 29% 27% 10% 10% 5% 9% 4% 6%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[170] 2014-10-30 29% 26% 9% 10% 5% 9% 4% 8%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[170] 2014-09-30 29% 26% 9% 10% 5% 9% 5% 7%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[170] 2014-08-30 27% 28% 9% 10% 5% 9% 5% 7%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[170] 2014-07-30 28% 26% 10% 10% 6% 8% 5% 7%
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[170] 2014-06-30 29% 26% 9% 10% 6% 8% 5% 7%
European election 2014 2014-05-25 29.2 % 25.4 % 9.1 % 8.9 % 6.8 % 6.7 % 6.4 % 7.1 %

Results[edit]

State Polling day Political group MEPs Note New parties w/o affiliation[a]
EPP (EPP) S&D (PES) ECR (AECR, ECPM) ALDE (ALDE, EDP) GUE/NGL (EL, NGLA, EACL) G-EFA (EGP, EFA) EFD (MELD) ENF (EAPN) NI
Germany Germany 26 May
France France 26 May
United Kingdom United Kingdom 23 May
Italy Italy 26 May
Spain Spain 26 May
Poland Poland 26 May
Romania Romania 26 May
Netherlands Netherlands 23 May
Belgium Belgium 26 May
Czech Republic Czech Republic 24/25 May
Greece Greece 26 May
Hungary Hungary 26 May
Portugal Portugal 26 May
Sweden Sweden 26 May
Austria Austria 26 May
Bulgaria Bulgaria 26 May
Finland Finland 26 May
Denmark Denmark 26 May
Slovakia Slovakia 25 May
Croatia Croatia 26 May
Republic of Ireland Ireland 24 May
Lithuania Lithuania 26 May
Latvia Latvia 25 May
Slovenia Slovenia 26 May
Cyprus Cyprus 26 May
Estonia Estonia 26 May
Luxembourg Luxembourg 26 May
Malta Malta 25 May
Total N/A

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Highlight colours show declared group affiliation in the incoming parliament.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "European elections: 23-26 May 2019". European Parliament. Archived from the original on 25 February 2019.
  2. ^ Preliminary date which can be changed by the Council of the European Union. The European Parliament wants the elections to take place on 23–26 May 2019.
  3. ^ "Nigel Farage". Efddgroup.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  4. ^ a b "Size of Parliament to shrink after Brexit" (Press release). European Parliament. 7 February 2018. Retrieved 28 May 2018.
  5. ^ "Brexit delayed until 31 October - UK and EU agree". BBC News. 11 April 2019. Retrieved 11 April 2019.
  6. ^ a b c "European Parliament elections: Council reaches agreement on a set of measures to modernise EU electoral law - Consilium". Consilium.europa.eu.
  7. ^ "Reform of the Electoral Law of the EU". European Parliament. Retrieved 14 April 2019.
  8. ^ Wieland: "Spitzenkandidat genie is well and truly out of the bottle", Euractiv 11 May 2016
  9. ^ Spitzenkandidat system here to stay, MEPs warn capitals, EU Observer 23 January 2018
  10. ^ "Countdown to 2019 European Elections - The Malta Independent". independent.com.mt.
  11. ^ EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker 'will not seek second term', BBC 11 February 2017
  12. ^ "Finland's fitness fiend ready for exhausting EU race". Financial Times. 1 October 2018. Retrieved 1 October 2018.
  13. ^ "Merkel backs Bavarian ally as center-right's EU Commission candidate: media | Reuters". 31 August 2018. Retrieved 31 August 2018.
  14. ^ "Europe's conservatives nominate Manfred Weber for EU top job". POLITICO. 8 November 2018. Retrieved 8 November 2018.
  15. ^ Slovakia's Sefcovic announces bid to head European Commission, Reuters 17 September 2018
  16. ^ Juncker's Dutch deputy bids to succeed him as EU chief, Reuters 10 October 2018
  17. ^ "PES Unites Behind Timmermans As Lead Candidate For 2019 European Elections". PES.
  18. ^ "Procedure for 2019 Green leading candidates". European Greens. Retrieved 29 September 2018.
  19. ^ a b "Four Greens enter race to become European Green Party leading candidates". European Greens. Retrieved 29 September 2018.
  20. ^ "Oriol Junqueras elected as EFA Lead Candidate for European elections". European Free Alliance. Retrieved 5 May 2019.
  21. ^ "Junqueras chosen as EFA party candidate to head European Commission in upcoming election". Catalan News Agency. Retrieved 5 May 2019.
  22. ^ Leading liberals join EU election fray, Politico.EU, 19 April 2019
  23. ^ Race is on for Commission president in 2019, Politico 13 February 2017
  24. ^ "Macron ♥ Vestager". 14 November 2017.
  25. ^ The race to succeed Juncker begins, Euractiv 17 January 2018
  26. ^ "European Left party elects two 'Spitzenkandidaten'". EUobserver. 28 January 2019. Retrieved 30 January 2019.
  27. ^ Wolf Achim Wiegand (30 November 2017). "Europe's liberals prepare for overthrow of Grand Coalition". Euractiv.
  28. ^ Eric Maurice (4 December 2017). "European Liberals pin hopes on Macron". EUObserver.
  29. ^ Vote Watch Europe (10 January 2018). "Could Macron join ALDE?". VoteWatch.eu.
  30. ^ a b c Maïa de La Baume (9 February 2018). "Macron's opening European gambit". Politico.
  31. ^ Cécile Barbière (15 February 2018). "Macron's plans for a party in the European Parliament". Euractiv.
  32. ^ "European Spring".
  33. ^ "Italy's M5S to unveil new EU group in January". euobserver.com. Retrieved 18 December 2018.
  34. ^ "German far Right rebuffs Steve Bannon's effort to forge Europe-wide populist movement". The Telegraph. Agence France-Presse. 11 August 2018. Retrieved 9 September 2018.
  35. ^ "Austria's far-right unwilling to collaborate with Bannon". The Times of Israel. Agence France-Presse. 12 September 2018. Retrieved 19 September 2018.
  36. ^ James, William (21 September 2018). "UKIP will not join Steve Bannon's anti-EU movement, says leader". Reuters. Retrieved 21 September 2018.
  37. ^ "Présidence de la Commission européenne : revivez le débat des candidats sur France 24". france24.com. 17 April 2019. Retrieved 17 April 2019.
  38. ^ "EU Commission Clash: The Candidates' Debate - Part 1". france24.com. 17 April 2014. Retrieved 17 April 2019.
  39. ^ "EU Commission Clash: The Candidates' Debate - Part 2". france24.com. 17 April 2014. Retrieved 17 April 2019.
  40. ^ "The Maastricht Debate". Politico Europe. 29 April 2014. Retrieved 29 April 2019.
  41. ^ "The Florence Debate". European University Institute. 2 May 2019. Retrieved 2 May 2019.
  42. ^ "Wahlarena zur Europawahl - Europawahl 2019 - ARD | Das Erste". daserste.de (in German). Retrieved 7 May 2019.
  43. ^ "EBU - Eurovision Debate". European Broadcasting Union. Retrieved 6 May 2019.
  44. ^ "TV-Duell und Schlagabtausch: Europawahl-Abend im ZDF: Was Sie wissen müssen". www.zdf.de (in German). Retrieved 17 May 2019.
  45. ^ "Number of MEPs to be reduced after EU elections in 2019 - News - European Parliament".
  46. ^ Amendments to the protocol on transitional provisions annexed to the EU treaties ratified on 1st December 2011, according to the European Parliament Press release on the ratification of Parliament's 18 additional MEPs, 1st December 2011
  47. ^ a b "MEPs debate who inherits British seats". politico.eu. Retrieved 12 April 2017.
  48. ^ http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PC-2017_02-Euro-Parl-310117.pdf
  49. ^ "Projet de loi relatif à l'élection des représentants au Parlement européen (INTX1733528L)" (in French). Légifrance. 3 January 2018. Retrieved 7 January 2018.
  50. ^ a b "Support for giving Irish MEP seats to NI". 13 June 2018 – via www.bbc.com.
  51. ^ Chris Morris (14 March 2019). "Brexit: Does the UK need to hold European elections?". BBC News. Retrieved 17 April 2019.
  52. ^ "European Parliament 2019 - Seat Projection (with and without the UK)". European Elections Stats. 14 May 2019. Retrieved 15 May 2019.
  53. ^ "European Parliament 2019 - Seat Projection (with and without the UK)". European Elections Stats. 14 May 2019. Retrieved 15 May 2019.
  54. ^ "Projektion". eu19.eu. 8 May 2019. Retrieved 13 May 2019.
  55. ^ "Wahl zum Europäischen Parlament - Prognose Stand 05.05.2019". election.de. 5 May 2019. Retrieved 10 May 2019.
  56. ^ a b "European Parliament 2019 - Seat Projection (with and without the UK)". EuropeanElectionsStats.eu. 1 May 2019. Retrieved 1 May 2019.
  57. ^ "How Europe Elects predicts an election". europeelects. 1 May 2019. Retrieved 6 May 2019.
  58. ^ "European Parliament Projection – April 2019". europeelects. 25 April 2019. Retrieved 25 April 2019.
  59. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 23 April 2019. Retrieved 1 May 2019.
  60. ^ a b "European Parliament 2019 - Seat Projection (with and without the UK)". EuropeanElectionsStats.eu. 16 April 2019. Retrieved 17 April 2019.
  61. ^ "Osservatorio sull'Europa – Elezioni Europee, i seggi al 12/4: No-Brexit, scenario rivoluzionato! ENF diventa AEPN? Destre nel caos". Bidimedia. 12 April 2019. Retrieved 14 April 2019.
  62. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 12 April 2019. Retrieved 13 April 2019.
  63. ^ "EU election polls: Two biggest Parliament groups are recovering — but will still take big hits". euronews. 10 April 2019. Retrieved 10 April 2019.
  64. ^ "European Alliance of Peoples and Nations: What we know so far". europeelects.eu. 25 March 2019. Retrieved 10 April 2019.
  65. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 5 April 2019. Retrieved 6 April 2019.
  66. ^ "European Elections 2019" (PDF). europarl.europa.eu. 29 March 2019.
  67. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 29 March 2019. Retrieved 30 March 2019.
  68. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 27 March 2019. Retrieved 30 March 2019.
  69. ^ "EU27: @EuropeElects seat projection for the European Parliament:". europeelects.eu. 25 March 2019. Retrieved 25 March 2019.
  70. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 21 March 2019. Retrieved 22 March 2019.
  71. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 18 March 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  72. ^ "European Parliament 2019 seat projection". European Elections Stats. 15 March 2019. Retrieved 15 March 2019.
  73. ^ "Wahl zum Europäischen Parlament - Prognose Stand 12.03.2019". election.de. 13 March 2019. Retrieved 17 March 2019.
  74. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 14 March 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  75. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 6 March 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  76. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 4 March 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  77. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 1 March 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  78. ^ a b c d "EU-Wahl-Prognose: EVP mit 188 und SPE mit 142 Sitzen ohne Mehrheit". derstandard.de. 29 March 2019. Retrieved 30 March 2019.
  79. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 26 February 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  80. ^ "European Parliament 2019 seat projection". European Elections Stats. 24 February 2019. Retrieved 24 February 2019.
  81. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 21 February 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  82. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 20 February 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  83. ^ "Europäische Volkspartei weiter stärkste Kraft". FAZ. 18 February 2019. Retrieved 20 February 2019.
  84. ^ "Projektion Europäisches Parlament". eu19.eu. 16 February 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  85. ^ "European Parliament 2019 seat projection". European Elections Stats. 3 February 2019. Retrieved 3 February 2019.
  86. ^ a b "Four Scenarios for the European election". europeelects.eu. Retrieved 30 January 2018.
  87. ^ "European Election Projection". europeelects.eu. Retrieved 13 January 2018.
  88. ^ Manuel Müller (13 January 2019). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (January 2019): Sozialdemokraten fallen auf neuen Tiefststand, Rechte legen zu, „Grüne Welle" hält an". foederalist.eu. Retrieved 13 January 2019.
  89. ^ a b "European Election Forecast". europeelects.eu. Retrieved 6 December 2018.
  90. ^ "European Parliament 2019 seat projection". European Elections Stats. 29 November 2018. Retrieved 29 November 2018.
  91. ^ "European Election Forecast". Europe Elects. 11 November 2018. Retrieved 12 November 2018.
  92. ^ "European Parliament 2019 seat projection". European Elections Stats. 28 October 2018. Retrieved 28 October 2018.
  93. ^ "Seconda simulazione sulla ripartizione dei seggi" (PDF). cattaneo. 26 October 2018. Retrieved 26 October 2018.
  94. ^ "EU27, EuropeElects seat projection". Europe Elects. 9 October 2018. Retrieved 9 October 2018.
  95. ^ "Projected Composition of the next European Parliament". Politico Europe. 9 October 2018. Retrieved 9 October 2018.
  96. ^ "European Parliament 2019 seat projection". European Elections Stats. 22 September 2018. Retrieved 22 September 2018.
  97. ^ "EU27, EuropeElects seat projection". Europe Elects. 20 September 2018. Retrieved 20 September 2018.
  98. ^ Manuel Müller (25 July 2018). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (September 2018): Hat die S&D noch eine Chance?". foederalist.eu. Retrieved 28 July 2018.
  99. ^ "European Parliament 2019 seat projection". EuropeanElectionsStats. 12 September 2018. Retrieved 12 September 2018.
  100. ^ "EU27, EuropeElects seat projection". Europe Elects. 10 August 2018. Retrieved 10 August 2018.
  101. ^ "EU parliament elections". Thomson Reuters. 28 July 2018. Retrieved 10 August 2018.
  102. ^ a b Manuel Müller (25 July 2018). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Juli 2018): Sozialdemokraten machen Boden gut, EVP in neuem Rekordtief, Rechte legen zu". foederalist.eu. Retrieved 28 July 2018.
  103. ^ "treffpunkteuropa: Changes in European party affiliations look set to shake up the European Parliament". thenewfederalist.eu. 6 July 2018. Retrieved 7 July 2018.
  104. ^ a b Manuel Müller (29 May 2018). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Mai 2018): Grüne im Aufwind, GroKo weiter im Tief". foederalist.eu. Retrieved 31 May 2018.
  105. ^ "treffpunkteuropa: SOZIALDEMOKRATEN NACH BREXIT OHNE CHANCE AUF KOMMISSIONSPRÄSIDENTSCHAFT". treffpunkteuropa.de. 18 May 2018. Retrieved 31 May 2018.
  106. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke (17 April 2018). "EUROPAWAHL-PROJEKTION: CHRISTDEMOKRATEN EUROPAWEIT VORNE". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 17 April 2018.
  107. ^ Manuel Müller (3 April 2018). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 6 April 2018.
  108. ^ Manuel Müller (5 February 2018). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Februar 2018): EVP verliert deutlich, kleine Parteien legen zu". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 6 February 2018.
  109. ^ Manuel Müller (15 December 2017). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Dezember 2017): Sozialdemokraten stürzen ab, Rekord-Vorsprung der EVP". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 6 February 2018.
  110. ^ Manuel Müller (16 October 2017). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Oktober 2017): EVP verliert, Grüne und Rechte gewinnen". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 17 October 2017.
  111. ^ Manuel Müller (22 August 2017). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (August 2017): Schlechte Zeiten für Europas Sozialdemokraten". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 17 October 2017.
  112. ^ Manuel Müller (28 June 2017). "Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Juni 2017): Liberale dank Macron im Rekordhoch". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 2 July 2017.
  113. ^ a b c d e f g Manuel Müller (30 September 2016). "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre". Der (europäische) Föderalist. Retrieved 16 May 2017.
  114. ^ "treffpunkteuropa: TRUMP-EFFEKT? – ZUSTIMMUNG FÜR RECHTE IN EUROPA SINKT RASANT". treffpunkteuropa.de. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 28 March 2016.
  115. ^ "treffpunkteuropa: Umfragen: Europas Rechte im Sinkflug". treffpunkteuropa.de. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 1 March 2016.
  116. ^ a b "treffpunkteuropa: Umfragen: Der Trump-Effekt". treffpunkteuropa.de. 1 December 2016. Retrieved 1 December 2016.
  117. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Muskelschwund der Volksparteien in der EU – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  118. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: 20% der Europäer würden rechts wählen – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  119. ^ a b c Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Terror verändert Wahlabsicht der Europäer kaum – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  120. ^ Manuel Müller. "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Juli 2016): Wer profitiert vom Brexit?". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  121. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: Brexit beflügelt EU-Befürworter – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  122. ^ treffpunkteuropa.de. "Live-Ticker: Brexit-Referendum +++ Junge Wähler blieben zuhause – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  123. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: Europäische Sozialdemokratie stürzt weiter ab – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  124. ^ Manuel Müller (25 May 2016). "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Mai 2016): EVP und S&D in freiem Fall". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  125. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Nach Brüsseler Anschlägen: Rechtspopulismus in Europa erreicht Umfragehoch – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  126. ^ a b Manuel Müller (7 February 2016). "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Februar 2016): Rechte weiter im Höhenflug, Sozialdemokraten auf neuem Tiefststand". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  127. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: Europäische Sozialdemokratie in der Krise – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  128. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: Pro-europäische Verhofstadt-Allianz auf Rekordjagd – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  129. ^ "Le Taurillon, magazine eurocitoyen". Treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  130. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: Liberaler Frühling in Europa – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  131. ^ Manuel Müller (14 December 2015). "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Dezember 2015): Große Koalition verliert, ALDE gewinnt". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  132. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: Kein Zuwachs für Rechte durch Paris-Attentate – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  133. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke (18 November 2015). "Gains for Cameron and ECR allies all over Europe – The New Federalist, webzine of the Young European Federalist". Thenewfederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  134. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "AfD-Partner europaweit im Höhenflug – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  135. ^ Manuel Müller. "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (Oktober 2015): Rechtes Rekordhoch in der Flüchtlingskrise". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  136. ^ Manuel Müller. "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre (August 2015): Umfragen in der Sommerpause". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  137. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "europeanmeter: Tsipras-Politik stoppt Aufstieg der europäischen Linken – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  138. ^ "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (Juni 2015)". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  139. ^ a b Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Linke in Europa weiter stark – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  140. ^ Manuel Müller. "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (Mai 2015)". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  141. ^ Manuel Müller. "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (März 2015)". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  142. ^ Manuel Müller. "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (Januar 2015)". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  143. ^ Manuel Müller (18 November 2014). "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (November 2014)". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  144. ^ Manuel Müller (23 September 2014). "Der (europäische) Föderalist: Wenn am nächsten Sonntag Europawahl wäre: Prognose für das Europäische Parlament (September 2014)". Foederalist.eu. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  145. ^ a b "Populist plan for 2019 election puts EU in crosshairs". 4 June 2018.
  146. ^ "4 biggest risks to Europe's 2019 election". 23 May 2018.
  147. ^ "EUROPEAN ELECTION PROJECTION". europeelects.eu. Retrieved 10 April 2019.
  148. ^ "SPD droht Debakel bei Eurowahl - Union obenauf". wahlkreisprognose.de. Retrieved 30 December 2018.
  149. ^ a b c "Europe Elects on Twitter".
  150. ^ "Europe Elects on Twitter".
  151. ^ a b "Europe Elects on Twitter".
  152. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: Europa: Implosion der Rechten – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 28 March 2016.
  153. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: TRUMP-EFFEKT? – ZUSTIMMUNG FÜR RECHTE IN EUROPA SINKT RASANT – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 28 March 2016.
  154. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: Europas Rechte im Sinkflug – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 1 March 2016.
  155. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: Umfragen: Das Ende der europäischen Sozialdemokratie? – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 2 February 2016.
  156. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfragen: Le-Pen-Allianz ENF startet stark ins Superwahljahr – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  157. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Der Anti-Trump-Effekt – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  158. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Umfrage: Rechtspopulisten in EU-Gründerstaaten stark – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  159. ^ treffpunkteuropa.de. "Live-Ticker: Brexit-Referendum +++ Junge Wähler blieben zuhause – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  160. ^ "Wahlen in Österreich: van der Bellen gewinnt – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  161. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Nach Brüsseler Anschlägen: Rechtspopulismus in Europa erreicht Umfragehoch – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  162. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Nach Köln-Übergriffen: Le-Pen-Allianz erstmals bei 7 Prozent – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  163. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Flüchtlingskrise erschüttert politische Stimmung in Europa – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  164. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Flüchtlingskrise: Rechte in Europa profitieren vorerst nicht – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  165. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Trotz Griechenland-Einigung: Etablierte Parteien in Europa schwächeln in Umfragen – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  166. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Instabile Rechtsfraktion im EU-Parlament – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  167. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Cameron-Alliierte europaweit im Höhenflug – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  168. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Europeanmeter: rechts gewinnt, links verliert – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  169. ^ Tobias Gerhard Schminke. "Europeanmeter: Rekordzustimmung für Linke – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.
  170. ^ a b c d e f g h Tobias Gerhard Schminke (25 May 2014). "Nach Charlie Hebdo-Attentat: Rechtsruck in Europa bleibt aus – treffpunkteuropa.de | europäisch, politisch, kritisch". treffpunkteuropa.de. Retrieved 29 November 2016.

External links[edit]