2019 Pacific hurricane season

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2019 Pacific hurricane season
2019 Pacific hurricane season summary map.png
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJune 25, 2019
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameBarbara
 • Maximum winds155 mph (250 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure933 mbar (hPa; 27.55 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions4
Total storms3
Hurricanes2
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)
1
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageUnknown
Related articles
Pacific hurricane seasons
2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

The 2019 Pacific hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation, in which tropical cyclones form in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The season officially began on May 15 in the East Pacific Ocean, and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they will both end on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year. The season had a slow start, with no tropical cyclones forming in the basin during the month of May for the first time since 2016 (though Hurricane Pali formed in January 2016), and the first time that no storms formed before the month of June since 2011. The season became the latest-starting Pacific hurricane season on record since reliable records began in 1971, with the first tropical depression forming on June 25.[citation needed]

Seasonal forecasts[edit]

Record Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Ref
Average (1981–2010): 15.4 7.6 3.2 [1]
Record high activity: 1992: 27 2015: 16 2015: 11 [2]
Record low activity: 2010: 8 2010: 3 2003: 0 [2]
Date Source Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Ref
May 15, 2019 SMN 19 11 6 [3]
May 23, 2019 NOAA 15–22 8–13 4–8 [4]
Area Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Ref
Actual activity: EPAC 3 2 1
Actual activity: CPAC 0 0 0
Actual activity: 3 2 1

On May 15, 2019, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued its first forecast for the season, predicting a total of 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes to develop.[3] On May 23, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual forecast, predicting a 70% chance of a near- to above-average season in both the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, with a total of 15–22 named storms, 8–13 hurricanes, and 4–8 major hurricanes.[4] The reason for their outlook was the forecast of an El Niño to continue through the season, which reduces vertical wind shear across the basin and increases sea surface temperatures, favoring increased tropical cyclone activity. In addition, many global computer models expected a positive Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), a phase of a multi-decade cycle that favored much warmer than average sea surface temperatures that had been ongoing since 2014 to continue, in contrast to the 1995–2013 period, which generally featured below normal activity.[5]

Seasonal summary[edit]

Saffir–Simpson scale

The season officially began on May 15 in Eastern Pacific and on June 1 in Central Pacific; both will end on November 30.[6] Initial activity was slow, with the first tropical depression of the season forming only on June 25.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for the 2019 Pacific hurricane season, as of 21:00 UTC on July 7, is 22.7925 units in the Eastern Pacific and 0 units in the Central Pacific. The total ACE in the basin is 22.7925 units.[nb 1]

Systems[edit]

Hurricane Alvin[edit]

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
Alvin 2019-06-27 2055Z.jpg Alvin 2019 track.png
DurationJune 25 – June 29
Peak intensity75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min)  992 mbar (hPa)

On June 19, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began to forecast the formation of a low-pressure area off the southwestern coast of Mexico within the next several days.[7] An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a westward-moving tropical wave, developed in the region on June 22, with a low-pressure system forming in association with the system on the following day.[8] During the next few days, the system gradually organized as it moved west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. By 21:00 UTC on June 25, the disturbance had developed sufficiently organized convection as well as a sufficiently-defined center of circulation to be classified as a tropical depression, the first of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season.[9] The tropical depression slowly strengthened while moving westward, becoming a tropical storm and receiving the name Alvin eighteen hours later.[10] Warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and high relative humidity provided a generally favorable environment for Alvin to strengthen over the next couple of days, as it was steered westward to the south of a subtropical ridge.[11] Early on June 28, by 03:00 UTC, Alvin reached its peak intensity and strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, becoming the first hurricane of the season. Microwave imagery revealed that Alvin possessed a small inner core, with an eye around 11.5 miles (18.5 km) in diameter.[12] However, just six hours later, southwesterly wind shear began to increase as Alvin turned northwestwards, causing the cyclone to weaken back to a tropical storm.[13] Rapid weakening commenced thereafter, as strong southeasterly wind shear and cooler ocean waters began to take their toll, and the cyclone weakened to a tropical depression early on June 29.[14] At 15:00 UTC that day, Alvin degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low, after losing its remaining convection.[15]

Hurricane Barbara[edit]

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
Barbara 2019-07-02 2145Z.jpg Barbara 2019 track.png
DurationJune 30 – July 6
Peak intensity155 mph (250 km/h) (1-min)  933 mbar (hPa)

On June 26, the NHC began to forecast the formation of an area of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico, within the next several days.[16] The next day, a tropical wave—accompanied by a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms—moved into the region. The disturbance gradually became better organized over the next few days as it moved westward to west-northwestward.[17] On the afternoon of June 30, after satellite imagery indicated that the disturbance had become better organized and had gale-force winds east of a well-defined center of circulation, the NHC upgraded the system to a tropical storm and named it Barbara.[18]

Barbara continued to move towards the west-northwest, with convection around the center of the storm increasing as conditions remained favorable for further strengthening. At 21:00 UTC on July 1, Barbara intensified into a category 1 hurricane while located roughly 970 miles (1,560 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.[19] The storm then began a period of rapid intensification, developing a robust inner core intensifying into a Category 4 major hurricane by 12:30 UTC on July 2.[20][21] Early the next morning, Barbara reached its peak intensity as a high-end Category 4 hurricane, with a minimum central pressure of 933 millibars (27.6 inHg) and maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h).[22]

Soon after reaching peak intensity, the storm began an eyewall replacement cycle,[23] and encountered cooler waters, causing the storm to weaken.[24] This weakening trend accelerated as southwesterly wind shear increased, with the storm weakening to a Category 2 hurricane by 21:00 UTC on July 4.[25] Early the next morning, Barbara weakened into a tropical storm;[26] the storm gradually lost its remaining convection and degenerated into a remnant low during the afternoon of July 6.[27] Barbara's remnants passed 120 mi (190 km) south of Hawai'i on July 8, producing showers over the windward regions of the island and nearby Maui.[28] The storms generated by Barbara's remnants were cited by Hawaiian Electric Industries as the likely cause of power outages affecting 45,000 electricity customers.[29]

Tropical Storm Cosme[edit]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
Cosme 2019-07-06 1820Z.jpg Cosme 2019 track.png
DurationJuly 6 – July 8
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)  1001 mbar (hPa)

On June 28, the NHC began forecasting the development of a tropical disturbance to the south of Mexico within the next several days.[30] Early on July 3, a tropical disturbance associated with a tropical wave formed several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.[31] Moving into favorable conditions, the disturbance continued to organize slowly, as it was in the vicinity of Hurricane Barbara. On July 6, the disturbance organized into a tropical storm and was named Cosme, becoming the third named system of the East Pacific hurricane season.[32][33] However, a day after the storm was named, Cosme started weakening due to dry air intrusion.[34] At 03:00 UTC on July 8, Cosme weakened into a tropical depression, before degenerating into a convectionless remnant low later that day, after succumbing to a combination of low sea surface temperatures, dry air, and westerly wind shear.[35][36]

Tropical Depression Four-E[edit]

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
96E 2019-07-12 1740Z.jpg 04E 2019 track.png
DurationJuly 12 – July 14
Peak intensity35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min)  1006 mbar (hPa)

At 00:00 UTC on July 6, the NHC began to forecast the potential formation of an area of low pressure, which had the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone within several days.[37] Two days later, thunderstorms formed in association with a tropical wave within the area.[38] Afterward, the system quickly organized and was classified as Tropical Depression Four-E at 21:00 UTC on July 12.[39][40] The system then proceeded to slowly move west-northwestward. However, the storm failed to intensify further, due to dry air and wind shear in the region. Late on July 13, wind shear took its toll on the storm, and Four-E lost almost all of its deep convection, though a few cells continued to persist near the center of the storm.[41] At 15:00 UTC on July 14, the system degenerated into a remnant low.[42]

Storm names[edit]

The following names are being used for named storms that form in the northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2019. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2020. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2025 season.[43] This is the same list used in the 2013 season, with the exception of the name Mario, which replaced Manuel.

  • Alvin
  • Barbara
  • Cosme
  • Dalila (unused)
  • Erick (unused)
  • Flossie (unused)
  • Gil (unused)
  • Henriette (unused)
  • Ivo (unused)
  • Juliette (unused)
  • Kiko (unused)
  • Lorena (unused)
  • Mario (unused)
  • Narda (unused)
  • Octave (unused)
  • Priscilla (unused)
  • Raymond (unused)
  • Sonia (unused)
  • Tico (unused)
  • Velma (unused)
  • Wallis (unused)
  • Xina (unused)
  • York (unused)
  • Zelda (unused)

For storms that form in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, encompassing the area between 140 degrees west and the International Date Line, all names are used in a series of four rotating lists.[44] The next four names that are slated for use in 2019 are shown below.

  • Akoni (unused)
  • Ema (unused)
  • Hone (unused)
  • Iona (unused)

Season effects[edit]

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2019 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2019 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2019 Pacific hurricane season statistics
Storm
name
Dates active Storm category

at peak intensity

Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(USD)
Deaths Refs


Alvin June 25 – 29 Category 1 hurricane 75 (120) 992 None None None
Barbara June 30 – July 6 Category 4 hurricane 155 (250) 933 Hawaii Minimal None
Cosme July 6 – 8 Tropical storm 50 (85) 1001 None None None
Four-E July 12 – 14 Tropical depression 35 (55) 1006 None None None
Season Aggregates
4 systems June 25 – Season ongoing   155 (250) 933 None None  

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ The totals represent the sum of the squares for every tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at Talk:2019 Pacific hurricane season/ACE calcs.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Background Information: East Pacific Hurricane Season". Climate Prediction Center. College Park, Maryland: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 22, 2014. Retrieved May 29, 2014.
  2. ^ a b National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division; Central Pacific Hurricane Center. "The Northeast and North Central Pacific hurricane database 1949–2017". United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service. A guide on how to read the database is available here.
  3. ^ a b "Temporada de Ciclones 2019". smn.cna.gob.mx.
  4. ^ a b "NOAA predicts above-normal 2019 hurricane season in the central Pacific". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 23, 2019.
  5. ^ "NOAA predicts above-normal 2019 hurricane season in the central Pacific". Climate Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 23, 2019.
  6. ^ Neal Dorst (June 2, 2016). "TCFAQ G1) When is hurricane season?". Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Archived from the original on 2009-05-06. Retrieved July 24, 2018.
  7. ^ Lixion A. Avila (June 19, 2019). Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
  8. ^ Daniel P. Brown (June 23, 2019). Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
  9. ^ Daniel P. Brown (June 25, 2019). Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
  10. ^ Andrew S. Latto; Michael J. Brennan (June 26, 2019). Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 26, 2019.
  11. ^ Andrew S. Latto; Michael J. Brennan (June 26, 2019). Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 5 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
  12. ^ Richard J. Pasch (June 28, 2019). Hurricane Alvin Discussion Number 10 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
  13. ^ Daniel P. Brown (June 28, 2019). Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 11 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
  14. ^ Daniel P. Brown (June 29, 2019). Tropical Depression Alvin Discussion Number 15 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 29, 2019.
  15. ^ Andrew S. Latto; John L. Beven II (June 29, 2019). Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Discussion Number 16 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 29, 2019.
  16. ^ Andrew S. Latto; David Zelinsky (June 26, 2019). Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 30, 2019.
  17. ^ Andrew S. Latto; John L. Beven II (June 29, 2019). Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 30, 2019.
  18. ^ Andrew S. Latto (June 30, 2019). Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 30, 2019.
  19. ^ Andrew Latto; John Cangialosi (July 1, 2019). Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 6 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 1, 2019.
  20. ^ Lixion Avila (July 2, 2019). Hurricane Barbara Tropical Cyclone Update (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 2, 2019.
  21. ^ Lixion Avila (July 2, 2019). Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 9 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 2, 2019.
  22. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (July 3, 2019). Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 11 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
  23. ^ Robbie Berg (July 3, 2019). Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 12 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
  24. ^ Lixion Avila (July 3, 2019). Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 13 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
  25. ^ Eric Blake (July 4, 2019). Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 18 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 4, 2019.
  26. ^ Richard Pasch (July 5, 2019). Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 21 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 6, 2019.
  27. ^ Lixion A. Avila (July 6, 2019). Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara Discussion Number 25 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 6, 2019.
  28. ^ Burke, Bob (July 8, 2019). "Area Forecast Discussion". National Weather Service Raw Text Product. Ames, Iowa: Iowa State University. Retrieved July 9, 2019.
  29. ^ "Power Interrupted as Storm Remnants Hit Hawaii's Big Island". The New York Times. New York, New York: The New York Times Company. Associated Press. July 8, 2019. Retrieved July 9, 2019. (subscription required)
  30. ^ Robbie Berg (June 28, 2019). Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 6, 2019.
  31. ^ Robbie Berg (July 3, 2019). Two-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 6, 2019.
  32. ^ Eric S. Blake (July 6, 2019). Two-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 6, 2019.
  33. ^ Eric S. Blake (July 6, 2019). Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 6, 2019.
  34. ^ Andrew S. Latto; Richard J. Pasch (July 7, 2019). Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 4 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 7, 2019.
  35. ^ John P. Cangialosi (July 7, 2019). Tropical Depression Cosme Advisory Number 7 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 8, 2019.
  36. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (July 8, 2019). Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Discussion Number 9 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 8, 2019.
  37. ^ David Zelinsky (July 6, 2019). "Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". www.nhc.noaa.gov. Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 12, 2019.
  38. ^ John Cangialosi (July 8, 2019). "Two-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". www.nhc.noaa.gov. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 14, 2019.
  39. ^ David Zelinsky (July 12, 2019). "Two-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". www.nhc.noaa.gov. Retrieved July 14, 2019.
  40. ^ David Zelinsky (July 12, 2019). Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 14, 2019.
  41. ^ Richard Pasch (July 13, 2019). Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 6 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 14, 2019.
  42. ^ John Beven (July 14, 2019). Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 8 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved July 15, 2019.
  43. ^ "Tropical Cyclone Names". National Hurricane Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. April 11, 2013. Archived from the original on April 30, 2013. Retrieved May 8, 2013.
  44. ^ "Pacific Tropical Cyclone Names 2016-2021". Central Pacific Hurricane Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 12, 2016. Archived from the original (PHP) on December 4, 2016.

External links[edit]