2019 Saxony state election

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2019 Saxony state election

← 2014 1 September 2019 2024 →

All 119 seats in the Landtag of Saxony
60 seats needed for a majority
Turnout2,166,457 (66.5%)
Increase 17.4%
  First party Second party Third party
  2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–166.jpg 2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–079.jpg Rico Gebhardt.jpg
Leader Michael Kretschmer Jörg Urban Rico Gebhardt
Party CDU AfD Left
Last election 59 seats, 39.4% 14 seats, 9.7% 27 seats, 18.9%
Seats won 45 38 14
Seat change Decrease 14 Increase 24 Decrease 13
Popular vote 695,560 595,671 224,354
Percentage 32.1% 27.5% 10.4%
Swing Decrease 7.3% Increase 17.7% Decrease 8.5%

  Fourth party Fifth party
  2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–092.jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–111.jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–148.jpg
Leader Katja Meier &
Wolfram Günther
Martin Dulig
Party Green SPD
Last election 8 seats, 5.7% 18 seats, 12.4%
Seats won 12 10
Seat change Increase 4 Decrease 8
Popular vote 187,015 167,289
Percentage 8.6% 7.7%
Swing Increase 2.9% Decrease 4.6%

2019 Saxony state election.svg
Winning candidates in the single-member constituencies, with list seats shown in the top right.

Minister-President and Government before election

Michael Kretschmer (CDU)
CDUSPD

Elected Minister-President and Government

Michael Kretschmer (CDU)
CDUGreenSPD

The 2019 Saxony state election was held on 1 September 2019 to elect the members of the 7th Landtag of Saxony. The outgoing government was a grand coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Minister-President Michael Kretschmer.

The CDU, SPD, and The Left suffered heavy losses. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) moved into second place with 27.5% of votes, an increase of almost 18 percentage points. The Left fell from second to third place, underperforming opinion polls with 10%. The Greens recorded an improvement to 8.6%, but also fared more poorly than expected. The SPD fell to fifth place with 8%.[1] The election saw a major increase in voter turnout, rising from less than half in 2014 to 66.5% in 2019.

The incumbent grand coalition lost its majority, necessitating the formation of a new government. The CDU subsequently negotiated a "Kenya coalition" with the Greens and SPD. Michael Kretschmer was re-elected as Minister-President on 20 December.[2]

Background[edit]

In the 2014 state election, the CDU entered into coalition with the SPD. Since then, Saxony emerged as a stronghold of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which achieved its best results in Saxony in national elections since. It won narrow pluralities in the state in both the 2017 federal election, winning 27.0%, and the 2019 European elections, winning 25.3%.[3]

In May 2019, the Saxon electoral commission ruled that two-thirds of AfD's candidate list was invalid due to the party's decision to split them across two lists.[4] However, in July, a court partially overturned this decision, ruling half of the party's list eligible.[5]

Parties[edit]

The table below lists parties represented in the 6th Landtag of Saxony.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2014 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Michael Kretschmer 39.4%
59 / 126
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Rico Gebhardt 18.9%
27 / 126
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Martin Dulig 12.4%
18 / 126
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
German nationalism
Right-wing populism
Jörg Urban 9.7%
14 / 126
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Katja Meier
Wolfram Günther
5.7%
8 / 126

Opinion polling[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

Opinion polling for the 2019 Saxony state election.svg

Party polling[edit]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU Linke SPD AfD Grüne NPD FDP Others Lead
2019 state election 1 Sep 2019 32.1 10.4 7.7 27.5 8.6 0.6 4.5 8.6 4.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Aug 2019 1,657 32 14 8.5 24.5 11 5 5 7.5
Civey 4–28 Aug 2019 5,015 29.0 15.0 8.9 24.9 10.9 5.7 5.6 4.1
INSA 19–26 Aug 2019 1,018 29 15 8 25 11 5 7 4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–22 Aug 2019 1,068 31 14 9 25 10 5 6 6
Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2019 1,002 30 16 7 24 11 5 7 6
Civey 23 Jul–20 Aug 2019 5,016 28.0 15.0 8.5 25.2 11.4 5.5 6.4 2.8
FB Czaplicki 8–15 Aug 2019 700 28.0 16.0 8.0 26.0 13.0 5.0 4.0 2
INSA 22–31 Jul 2019 1,011 28 16 8 25 12 5 6 3
Civey 27 Jun–25 Jul 2019 5,019 27.1 15.0 8.7 25.4 10.8 5.6 7.4 1.7
Infratest dimap 24–29 Jun 2019 1,000 26 15 9 26 12 5 7 Tie
Civey 15 May–12 Jun 2019 5,001 29.7 16.6 10.3 23.5 10.6 4.6 4.7 6.2
INSA 4–11 Jun 2019 1,057 24 16 7 25 16 6 6 1
FB Czaplicki 29 May–4 Jun 2019 703 24 15 8 24 14 6 9 Tie
2019 European election 26 May 2019 23.0 11.7 8.6 25.3 10.3 0.8 4.7 15.6 2.3
INSA 17–24 Apr 2019 1,000 28 16 10 26 9 6 5 2
Civey 19 Mar–16 Apr 2019 3,852 29.4 17.4 11.6 20.8 9.9 6.1 4.8 8.6
INSA 7–18 Mar 2019 1,028 28 17 9 25 9 6 6 3
FB Czaplicki 4–13 Mar 2019 703 27 17 11 18 16 5 6 9
INSA 10–17 Dec 2018 1,000 29 18 10 25 9 6 3 4
IM Field 2–14 Nov 2018 1,002 29 17 11 24 8 6 5 5
INSA 27–30 Aug 2018 1,040 28 18 11 25 7 7 4 3
uniQma 20–28 Aug 2018 703 28.9 18.6 11.4 23.9 6.8 5.6 4.5 5.0
Infratest dimap 20–25 Aug 2018 1,000 30 18 11 25 6 5 5 5
INSA 4–11 Jun 2018 1,009 32 19 9 24 6 6 4 8
IM Field 16 Nov–2 Dec 2017 1,000 33 18 12 23 4 7 3 10
IM Field 23–26 Oct 2017 1,005 31 17 14 21 4 7 5 10
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 26.9 16.1 10.5 27.0 4.6 1.1 8.2 5.6 0.2
Infratest dimap 12–17 Jun 2017 1,000 41 15 10 21 4 5 4 20
Infratest dimap 15–19 Nov 2016 1,002 34 16 12 25 7 6 9
INSA 19–23 Sep 2016 1,003 37.5 16 13 21.5 6 1.5 2 2.5 16
Infratest dimap 9–14 Sep 2015 1,001 38 17 13 13 7 5 3 4 21
2014 state election 31 Aug 2014 39.4 18.9 12.4 9.7 5.7 4.9 3.8 5.1 20.5

Election result[edit]

LandtagSaxony19.svg
Party Constituency Party list Total
seats
+/- Seats %
Votes % +/- Seats Votes % +/- Seats
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 703,006 32.5 Decrease7.2 41 695,560 32.1 Decrease7.3 4 45 Decrease14 37.8
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 613,585 28.4 Increase22.0 15 595,671 27.5 Increase17.7 23 38 Increase24 31.9
The Left (Die Linke) 265,871 12.3 Decrease8.7 1 224,354 10.4 Decrease8.5 13 14 Decrease13 11.8
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) 192,489 8.9 Increase2.6 3 187,015 8.6 Increase2.9 9 12 Increase4 10.1
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 166,920 7.7 Decrease5.5 0 167,289 7.7 Decrease4.6 10 10 Decrease8 8.4
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 100,639 4.7 Increase0.6 0 97,438 4.5 Increase0.7 0 0 ±0 0
Free Voters (FW) 98,353 4.6 Increase2.6 0 72,897 3.4 Increase1.8 0 0 ±0 0
Die PARTEI (PARTEI) 12,557 0.6 Increase0.4 0 33,618 1.6 Increase0.9 0 0 ±0 0
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) Steady0.0 33,476 1.5 Increase0.4 0 0 ±0 0
National Democratic Party (NPD) Steady0.0 12,947 0.6 Decrease4.3 0 0 ±0 0
Partei für Gesundheitsforschung New 11,652 0.5 New 0 0 New 0
Blaue #TeamPetry Thüringen 1,508 0.1 New 0 7,806 0.4 New 0 0 New 0
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) Decrease1.6 6,632 0.3 Decrease0.8 0 0 ±0 0
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 6,000 0.3 Increase0.3 0 0 ±0 0
Party of Humanists (Humanisten) New 4,305 0.2 New 0 0 New 0
Dawn of German Patriots – Middle Germany (ADPM) New 3,948 0.2 New 0 0 New 0
Party of Reason (PDV) 2,268 0.1 Increase0.1 0 0 ±0 0
Communist Party of Germany (KPD) 1,951 0.1 Increase0.1 0 0 ±0 0
Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität (BüSo) Decrease0.4 1,630 0.1 Decrease0.1 0 0 ±0 0
Other 2,732 0.1 0 0 ±0 0
Valid votes 2,159,850 98.7 2,166,457 99.0
Blank and invalid votes 28,636 1.3 22,029 1.0
Total 2,188,486 100.0 60 2,188,486 100.0 59 119 Decrease7
Electorate/voter turnout 3,288,643 66.5 Increase 17.4 3,288,643 66.5 Increase 17.4
Source: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen

AfD received its highest share of the vote in any state or federal election, while the CDU and The Left both fell to record lows in Saxony. Under normal circumstances AfD should have received 39 seats in the Landtag; however, due to positions 31–61 being ruled invalid and removed from AfD's party list, they had no candidates to fill the final seat. Thus, it remains vacant and there are only 119 seats in the Landtag, one fewer than the standard minimum size.

Government formation[edit]

Incumbent Minister-President Michael Kretschmer was considered likely to retain his job, as his party remained the largest in the Landtag. Kretschmer ruled out working with AfD or leading a minority government during the campaign. As the CDU also rejects working with The Left, this leaves a so-called "Kenya coalition" as the only viable option: a coalition of the CDU, Greens, and SPD. Such a coalition has governed Saxony-Anhalt since the 2016 state election.[6] Kretschmer and Green leaders Meier and Günther publicly supported exploratory discussions in the week following the election, and the Greens scheduled a party vote on opening negotiations for 12 October.[7]

On 20 December, the coalition between the CDU, Greens, and SPD was approved by the Landtag and sworn into government, with Kretschmer remaining as Minister-President.[2]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Umfrage-Beben in Sachsen: AfD auf Augenhöhe mit der CDU". merkur.de (in German). 2019-04-27. Retrieved 2019-05-05.
  2. ^ a b "Sachsens Kenia-Regierung ist besiegelt". MDR.de. 20 December 2019.
  3. ^ "EU election: AfD surge in eastern Germany sets up clash of cultures | DW | 27.05.2019".
  4. ^ "Administrative oversight restricts far-right AfD in regional election". 5 July 2019.
  5. ^ "German court partially overturns restrictions on far-right AfD election list". 26 July 2019.
  6. ^ Anzlinger, Jana (2 September 2019). "Landtagswahl: Diese Koalitionen sind möglich". Süddeutsche Zeitung (in German).
  7. ^ "CDU-Landeschef in Sachsen: Kretschmer für Kenia-Koalition". ZDF (in German).