2019 Thuringian state election

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2019 Thuringian state election

← 2014 27 October 2019 2024 →

All 90 seats of the Landtag of Thuringia
46 seats needed for a majority
Turnout64.9% Increase 12.2 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  2019-10-27 Wahlabend Thüringen by Sandro Halank–57.jpg 2019-10-27 Wahlabend Thüringen by Sandro Halank–88.jpg 2019-10-27 Wahlabend Thüringen by Sandro Halank–93.jpg
Leader Bodo Ramelow Björn Höcke Mike Mohring
Party Left AfD CDU
Last election 28 seats, 28.2% 11 seats 10.6% 34 seats, 33.5%
Seats won 29 22 21
Seat change Increase 1 Increase 11 Decrease 13
Popular vote 343,780 259,382 241,049
Percentage 31.0% 23.4% 21.7%
Swing Increase 2.8% Increase 12.8% Decrease 11.8%

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  2019-10-27 Wahlabend Thüringen by Sandro Halank–64.jpg 2019-10-27 Wahlabend Thüringen by Sandro Halank–69.jpg
2016-02-25 Dirk Adams by Olaf Kosinsky-1.jpg
2019-10-27 Wahlabend Thüringen by Sandro Halank–37.jpg
Leader Wolfgang Tiefensee Anja Siegesmund
& Dirk Adams
Thomas L. Kemmerich
Party SPD Green FDP
Last election 12 seats, 12.4% 6 seats, 5.7% 0 seats, 2.5%
Seats won 8 5 5
Seat change Decrease 4 Decrease 1 Increase 5
Popular vote 90,987 57,474 55,493
Percentage 8.2% 5.2% 5.0%
Swing Decrease 4.2% Decrease 0.5% Increase 2.5%

Thüringen Landtagswahlkarte 2019.svg

Minister-President before election

Bodo Ramelow
Left

Elected Minister-President

TBD
TBD

The 2019 Thuringian state election in Thuringia, Germany took place on 27 October 2019 and was the seventh election to the Thuringian state parliament since the founding of the Free State of Thuringia in 1990. The Left emerged as the largest party, but the election resulted in a hung parliament as the governing Red-Red-Green Coalition fell 4 seats short of an overall majority.

Election date[edit]

According to § 18 of the Thuringian Electoral Law for the Landtag,[1] the Landtag election must take place on a Sunday or public holiday at the earliest 57 months after the beginning of the current parliamentary term on 14 October 2014[2] and at the latest 61 months after, i.e. at the earliest 21 July 2019 and at the latest 10 November 2019.[3] On 28 August 2018, the Thuringian Land government announced that the election is to take place on 27 October 2019.[4]

Opinion polls[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

2019 Thuringian state election polls.svg

Vote share[edit]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU Linke SPD AfD Grüne NPD FDP Others Lead
2019 state election 27 Oct 2019 21.7 31.0 8.2 23.4 5.2 0.5 5.0 4.9 7.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 23–24 Oct 2019 1,177 26 28 9 21 7 5 4 2
Civey 25 Sep–23 Oct 2019 3,029 22.9 30.2 8.2 23.2 7.4 5.0 3.1 7.0
INSA 14–21 Oct 2019 1,010 24 28 9 24 8 5 2 4
Infratest dimap 14–16 Oct 2019 1,001 24 29 8 24 7 4 4 5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14–16 Oct 2019 1,004 26 27 9 20 8 5 5 1
Civey 2–26 Sep 2019 3,035 24.2 25.3 8.4 22.3 9.2 5.0 5.8 1.1
INSA 16–23 Sep 2019 1,010 23 29 9 24 9 4 2 5
Infratest dimap 10–14 Sep 2019 1,001 22 28 7 25 8 5 5 3
INSA 12–19 Aug 2019 1,009 24 26 9 21 11 4 5 2
Infratest dimap 24–29 Jul 2019 1,001 21 25 8 24 11 5 6 1
INSA 18–24 Jun 2019 1,005 26 24 10 20 10 5 5 2
Civey 15 May–12 Jun 2019 2,981 26.5 20.8 9.6 22.5 10.1 5.2 5.3 4.0
2019 European election 26 May 2019 24.7 13.8 11.0 22.5 8.6 1.0 4.4 15.0 2.2
INSA 21–24 May 2019 1,029 26 25 11 20 8 5 5 1
INSA 11–22 Apr 2019 1,001 27 25 10 19 7 6 6 2
Civey 19 Mar–16 Apr 2019 1,320 28.6 24.3 11.0 19.5 7.3 4.9 4.4 4.3
INSA 19–25 Mar 2019 1,008 27 24 10 20 8 5 6 3
Infratest dimap 19–23 Mar 2019 1,005 28 24 11 20 8 5 4 4
INSA 22 Oct–17 Nov 2018 1,000 23 22 12 22 12 6 3 1
Infratest dimap 20–25 Aug 2018 1,000 30 22 10 23 6 5 4 7
INSA 29 May–1 Jun 2018 1,028 31 26 10 18 6 5 4 5
INSA 9–19 Feb 2018 1,267 32 24 10 18 7 5 4 8
INSA 9–13 Oct 2017 1,002 31 20 13 20 4 7 5 11
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 28.8 16.9 13.2 22.7 4.1 1.2 7.8 5.3 6.0
INSA 24–28 Jul 2017 1,007 37 22 11 18 4 5 3 15
Infratest dimap 12–17 Jun 2017 1,000 37 27 10 13 5 4 4 10
INSA 5–11 Apr 2017 1,005 33 22 15 19 5 4 2 11
INSA 15–25 Nov 2016 1,002 31 23 13 20 6 4 3 8
Infratest dimap 15–19 Nov 2016 1,000 32 23 12 21 6 3 3 9
INSA 17–21 Jun 2016 1,001 31.5 26 11.5 17.5 7 3.5 3 5.5
Infratest dimap 10–15 Jun 2016 1,701 32 25 11 19 7 6 7
INSA 4–12 Apr 2016 1,000 31 26.5 13 15 8.5 4 2 4.5
INSA 4–11 Jan 2016 1,002 33.5 27 14.5 13.5 7 4.5 6.5
INSA 7–12 Oct 2015 1,017 35.5 24.5 15.5 12 6.5 6 11
Infratest dimap 9–14 Sep 2015 1,000 35 27 13 9 7 4 5 8
INSA 1–6 Jul 2015 1,006 38 30 11 8 6 2 2 3 8
Infratest dimap 28 May–1 Jun 2015 1,002 34 27 14 8 7 3 2 5 7
INSA 23–27 Mar 2015 1,004 38 28 11 7 7 3 6 10
INSA 26 Jan–2 Feb 2015 1,000 40 29 11 10 6 4 11
2014 state election 14 Sep 2014 33.5 28.2 12.4 10.6 5.7 3.6 2.5 3.6 5.3

Election result[edit]

Summary of the 27 October 2019 preliminary election results for the Landtag of Thuringia
2019 Thuringian state election - Landtag chart.svg
Party Votes % +/- Seats +/- Seats %
The Left (Die Linke) 343,780 31.0 Increase2.8 29 Increase1 32.2
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 259,382 23.4 Increase12.8 22 Increase11 24.4
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 241,049 21.7 Decrease11.8 21 Decrease13 23.3
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 90,987 8.2 Decrease4.2 8 Decrease5 8.9
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grünen) 57,474 5.2 Decrease0.5 5 Decrease1 5.6
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 55,493 5.0 Increase2.5 5 Increase5 5.6
National Democratic Party of Germany 6,044 0.5 Decrease3.1 0 ±0 0
Others 54,179 4.9 Increase1.4 0 ±0 0
Valid votes 1,108,388 98.8 Increase0.2
Blank and invalid votes 13,426 1.2 Decrease0.2
Total 1,121,814 100.0 90 Decrease1
Electorate / voter turnout 1,729,242 64.9 Increase12.2
Source: Thüringer Landesamt für Statistik

The Left became the strongest party in a state election for the first time since German reunification. Notably, the FDP returned to a former East German state parliament for the first time since winning seats in Thuringia and Brandenburg in 2009. Whether the FDP would pass the 5 per cent electoral threshold was in doubt for much of election night, but preliminary results showed them entering the Landtag by a margin of six votes. This increased to 73 votes in the final results announced on 7 November.

The AfD doubled its result, going from 10.6% and 11 seats to 23.4% and 22 seats. The CDU, which rules at the national level in a coalition with its Bavarian sister party the CSU and the SPD, suffered its worst result in the state, losing more than 11 percentage points to take 22.5% of the vote. The Greens’ co-leader Annalena Baerbock said she was disappointed at her party's performance and that she was “devastated” by the huge gains made by the AfD, referring to it as “fascistic”. She said the result reinforced the need to invest more time and energy in civil society in eastern Germany.

Government formation[edit]

The results mean the red-red-green coalition that ruled the state previously (between The Left, the SPD and the Greens) are unable to achieve a majority in the legislature, as they are a total of four seats short. The CDU ruled out co-operating with the Left, and all parties ruled out any co-operation with AfD.

An open letter published on 5 November and signed by 17 state CDU members caused controversy. Although the letter only urged the CDU to hold discussions "all democratically elected parties" in the Landtag before ruling out any coalition partnerships, it was criticized by members of the national CDU and other state parties who interpreted it as a veiled call to work with AfD. Earlier in the week, deputy state party leader Michael Heym also publicly suggested exploring a CDU-AfD-FDP coalition.[5]

The result provided for two possible governments not including AfD, a Left-CDU coalition or a Left-SPD-Green-FDP coalition; the former would be ideologically unwieldy but command a stable majority, while the latter had never been tried on any level and would only hold a slim majority of 47 seats. Minister-President Ramelow invited CDU leader Mohring to formal exploratory talks during the week of 4 November, though he later withdrew the invitation on 9 November claiming Mohring had violated discretion by publicly displaying text messages between them. At the same time, CDU state leader Raymond Walk reiterated his party's rejection of any partnership with the Left.[6]

References[edit]

  1. ^ landesrecht.thueringen.de
  2. ^ Konstituierende Sitzung des 6. Landtags, auf thueringer-landtag.de
  3. ^ Wahltermine in Thüringen, auf wahlen.thueringen.de
  4. ^ Landtagswahl in Thüringen soll am 27. Oktober 2019 stattfinden, auf thueringer-allgemeine.de, abgerufen am 28. August 2018.
  5. ^ "Could Merkel's Christian Democrats really work with the far-right AfD?". www.thelocal.de. 5 November 2019.
  6. ^ "Kein Treffen von CDU-Chef mit Ramelow". Süddeutsche.de (in German). DPA. 9 November 2019.

External links[edit]