2019 United Kingdom general election in Scotland

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2019 United Kingdom general election

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All 59 Scottish seats to the House of Commons
  First party Second party
  Nicola Sturgeon election infobox 3.jpg Boris Johnson
Leader Nicola Sturgeon Boris Johnson
Party SNP Conservative
Leader since 14 November 2014 23 July 2019
Last election 35 seats, 36.9% 13 seats, 28.6%
Seats won 48[n 1] 6
Seat change Increase13 Decrease7
Popular vote 1,242,380 692,939
Percentage 45.0% 25.1%
Swing Increase8.1 Decrease3.5

  Third party Fourth party
  Jo Swinson Jeremy Corbyn election infobox 2.jpg
Leader Jo Swinson (Defeated) Jeremy Corbyn
Party Liberal Democrats Labour
Leader since 22 July 2019 12 September 2015
Last election 4 seats, 6.8% 7 seats, 27.1%
Seats won 4 1
Seat change Steady Decrease6
Popular vote 263,417 511,838
Percentage 9.5% 18.6%
Swing Increase2.8 Decrease8.5

2019UKelectionMapScotland.svg
Colours on map indicate winning party for each constituency

The 2019 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 12 December 2019,[1] two-and-a-half years after the previous general election in June 2017. The Scottish National Party (SNP) received the most votes (45%, up 8.1% from the previous election) and won 48[n 1] out of 59 seats — a gain of 13 over those won in 2017, and 81% of the Scottish seats in the House of Commons.[2]

SNP gains came at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives. The Tories remained the largest unionist party in Scotland even though they lost more than half of their Scottish seats, winning six compared to thirteen in 2017. Labour was reduced to only one seat, down from seven. The Liberal Democrats managed to win four Scottish seats for no net change, although party leader Jo Swinson (herself the only major party leader to stand for election in Scotland) was unseated in her bid for re-election by her SNP challenger.

Labour’s vote share was its lowest at a Westminster election in Scotland since December 1910.[3][4]

Political context[edit]

The June 2017 general election in Scotland was fought in the aftermath of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, in which the SNP won a third term in government but lost its overall majority in the Scottish Parliament. The 2016 EU referendum was held a month later on Thursday 23 June, and the final result was for the United Kingdom to leave the EU, despite Scotland voting 62.0% Remain. Negotiations then began after the invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union in March 2017, which was expected to dominate the snap general election campaign.[5] At the 2017 general election the SNP remained the largest party, but their number of seats was much reduced, while the Scottish Conservatives increased their number of MPs, overtaking Labour as the second largest party.

In the 2019 European Parliament election, Scottish Labour lost its two MEPs, the SNP increased its number to three, the Scottish Conservatives held theirs and the Brexit Party and Liberal Democrats gained one each.

Opinion polling[edit]

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
SNP Con Lab Lib Dem Green UKIP Change UK Brexit Other Lead
2019 general election 12 Dec 2019 45.0% 25.1% 18.6% 9.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 19.9%
Survation/The Courier 10–11 Dec 2019 1,012 43% 28% 20% 7% 1% 1% 15%
YouGov (MRP) 4–10 Dec 2019 [6] 41% 27% 20% 10% 1% 1% 14%
Panelbase/Sunday Times 3–6 Dec 2019 1,020 39% 29% 21% 10% 1% 0% 0% 10%
YouGov/The Times 29 Nov–3 Dec 2019 1,002 44% 28% 15% 12% 1% 0% 0% 16%
Ipsos MORI/STV 19–25 Nov 2019 1,046 44% 26% 16% 11% 2% <1% 18%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 20–22 Nov 2019 1,009 40% 28% 20% 11% <1% <1% <1% 12%
15 Nov Nominations for candidates close (final candidates announced)
6 Nov Parliament dissolved and official campaign period begins
YouGov 23–25 Oct 2019 1,060 42% 22% 12% 13% 4% 0% 0% 6% 0% 20%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 9–11 Oct 2019 1,003 39% 21% 19% 13% 2% 5% 18%
YouGov/The Times 30 Aug–3 Sep 2019 1,059 43% 20% 15% 12% 4% 0% 0% 6% 0% 23%
29 Aug 2019 Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives[7]
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–20 Jun 2019 1,024 38% 18% 17% 13% 2% <1% <1% 9% 20%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 14–17 May 2019 1,021 38% 18% 19% 10% 3% 1% 2% 9% <1% 19%
YouGov/The Times 24–26 Apr 2019 1,029 43% 20% 17% 9% 3% 1% 2% 4% 0% 23%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 2019 1,018 38% 22% 21% 6% 2% 2% 3% 5% <1% 16%
Survation/Scotland in Union 18–23 Apr 2019 1,012 41% 22% 24% 8% 5% 17%
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 28 Feb–6 Mar 2019 1,002 37% 27% 22% 7% 2% 2% 2% <1% 10%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1–4 Mar 2019 1,011 40% 24% 23% 8% 4% 16%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 30 Nov–5 Dec 2018 1,028 37% 26% 26% 6% 2% 2% <1% 11%
Survation/Scotland in Union 9–13 Nov 2018 1,013 39% 26% 24% 8% 3% 13%
Panelbase/Constitutional Commission 2–7 Nov 2018 1,050 37% 28% 25% 7% 2% 2% 3% 9%
Survation/Channel 4 20 Oct–2 Nov 2018 1,734 40% 27% 23% 7% 1% 1% 1% 13%
Survation/Daily Record 18–21 Oct 2018 1,017 36% 27% 26% 7% 1% 1% 9%
Survation/SNP 3–5 Oct 2018 1,013 37% 28% 26% 6% 2% 9%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 28 Sep–4 Oct 2018 1,024 38% 27% 24% 6% 2% 2% <1% 11%
Survation/The Sunday Post 28 Sep–2 Oct 2018 1,036 41% 26% 24% 7% 3% 15%
Survation/Daily Record 5–10 Jul 2018 1,004 42% 24% 23% 8% 3% 18%
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 21–26 Jun 2018 1,018 38% 27% 25% 7% 2% <1% <1% 11%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 8–13 Jun 2018 1,021 38% 27% 27% 6% 2% <1% <1% 11%
YouGov/The Times 1–5 Jun 2018 1,075 40% 27% 23% 7% 2% 1% 1% 13%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 23–28 Mar 2018 1,037 36% 28% 27% 6% 2% 1% <1% 8%
Ipsos MORI/STV 5–11 Mar 2018 1,050 39% 25% 26% 6% 4% 0% 0% 13%
Survation/Daily Record 24–28 Jan 2018 1,029 39% 24% 27% 7% 3% 12%
YouGov/The Times 12–16 Jan 2018 1,002 36% 23% 28% 6% 3% 3% 0% 8%
Survation/The Sunday Post 1–5 Dec 2017 1,006 38% 24% 29% 7% 3% 9%
Survation/Daily Record 27–30 Nov 2017 1,017 37% 25% 28% 7% 3% 9%
18 Nov 2017 Richard Leonard officially becomes leader of Scottish Labour[8]
YouGov/The Times 2–5 Oct 2017 1,135 40% 23% 30% 5% 1% 1% 0% 10%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 8–12 Sep 2017 1,016 39% 26% 26% 7% 2% 13%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 31 Aug–7 Sep 2017 1,021 41% 27% 24% 6% 2% 14%
2017 general election 8 Jun 2017 36.9% 28.6% 27.1% 6.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 8.3%

Seat projections[edit]

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Con Lab SNP Lib Dem Green Brexit Other
2019 general election 12 December 2019 6 1 48 4 0 0 0
YouGov MRP 10 December 2019 9 5 41 4 0 0 0
Ipsos MORI Scotland/STV 28 November 2019 6 1 48 4 0 0 0
YouGov MRP 27 November 2019 11 2 42 4 0 0 0
2017 general election 8 June 2017 13 7 35 4 0 0 0

Campaign events[edit]

Television debates[edit]

Like the rest of the United Kingdom, Scottish broadcasters hosted television debates. On 20 November, BBC Scotland's flagship political programme, Debate Night, moderated by Stephen Jardine, hosted a Young Voter's Special with representatives from the main parties where they debated in front of an audience of voters aged under 30. On 3 December, STV hosted a television debate moderated by Colin Mackay[9] and BBC Scotland announced that they would host a debate on 10 December, two days before the election, moderated by Sarah Smith.

Date Organisers Venue Moderators  P  Present   S  Standing-in   NI  Not invited   A  Absent   I  Invited  
Con Lab SNP LD Green Brexit
20 November BBC Scotland (Debate Night)[n 2] Scottish Youth Theatre, Glasgow Stephen Jardine S
Gallacher
S
Sweeney
S
Linden
S
Cole-Hamilton
P
Slater
NI
26 November Sky News City Observatory, Edinburgh Adam Boulton S
Greene
P
Leonard
S
Blackford
P
Rennie
A

Harvie

NI
2 December BBC (Victoria Derbyshire Election Debate) North Berwick, East Lothian Victoria Derbyshire S
Hoy
S
Whitfield
S
MacAskill
S
O'Riordan
NI NI
3 December[9] STV STV Pacific Quay, Glasgow Colin Mackay P
Carlaw
P
Leonard
P
Sturgeon
P
Rennie
NI NI
10 December BBC Scotland BBC Pacific Quay, Glasgow Sarah Smith P
Carlaw
P
Leonard
P
Sturgeon
P
Rennie
NI NI

The Scottish National Party have been represented in UK-wide television debates in addition due to being the third largest party in the House of Commons.

Reaction[edit]

Date(s)
administered
Poll source Sample size Carlaw Leonard Sturgeon Rennie Lead
STV Leaders Debate
3 December 2019 STV News[n 3] 7,170 10% 5% 80% 5% 70%
3 December 2019 HeraldScotland 9,115 7% 4% 87% 2% 80%
BBC Leaders Debate
10 December 2019 HeraldScotland 2,834 7% 17% 72% 4% 55%

Leader's interviews[edit]

In addition to television debates, BBC Scotland and STV also interviewed Scottish party leaders on The Nine and Scotland Tonight in the run-up to the general election, alongside guest commentary too.

On 4 December, the four main Scottish party leaders took part in leaders interviews with fictional character Chief Commissioner Cameron Mickelson from the BBC Scotland sitcom, Scot Squad.

Results[edit]

Party[10] Seats Votes
Total Gains Losses Net +/- % seats Total votes % votes Change
SNP 48[n 1] 14 1 Increase13 81.36 1,242,380 45.0 Increase8.1
Conservative 6 0 7 Decrease7 10.17 692,939 25.1 Decrease3.5
Labour 1 0 6 Decrease6 1.69 511,838 18.6 Decrease8.5
Liberal Democrats 4 1 1 Steady 6.77 263,417 9.5 Increase2.8
Scottish Green 0 0 0 Steady 28,122 1.0 Increase0.8
Brexit Party 0 0 0 13,243 0.5 new
UKIP 0 0 0 Steady 3,303 0.1 Decrease0.1
Others 0 0 0 Steady 3,819 0.1 Increase0.1
2,759,061 68.1 Increase1.6

Votes summary[edit]

Popular vote
SNP
45.0%
Conservative
25.1%
Labour
18.6%
Liberal Democrats
9.5%
Greens
1.0%
Brexit Party
0.1%
UKIP
0.1%
Other
0.1%
Parliament seats
SNP
81.4%
Conservative
10.2%
Liberal Democrats
6.8%
Labour
1.7%

List of constituencies by party[edit]

2019 UK general election (Scottish Westminster constituencies)
Party Constituency
SNP
Conservative
Liberal Democrats
Labour

Target seats[edit]

Scottish Conservatives[edit]

Rank Constituency Winning party 2017 Swing
required
Conservatives'
place 2019
Result
1 Perth and North Perthshire SNP 0.02% 2nd SNP
2 Lanark and Hamilton East SNP 0.26% 2nd SNP
3 Edinburgh South West SNP 1.11% 2nd SNP
4 Argyll and Bute SNP 1.38% 2nd SNP
5 East Lothian Labour 3.24% 3rd SNP
6 Linlithgow and Falkirk East SNP 3.63% 2nd SNP
7 Ayrshire North and Arran SNP 3.66% 2nd SNP
8 Edinburgh North and Leith SNP 3.9% 3rd SNP

Scottish Labour[edit]

Rank Constituency Winning party 2017 Swing
required
Labour's
place 2019
Result
1 Glasgow South West SNP 0.08% 2nd SNP
2 Glasgow East SNP 0.10% 2nd SNP
3 Airdrie and Shotts SNP 0.26% 2nd SNP
4 Lanark and Hamilton East SNP 0.36% 3rd SNP
5 Motherwell and Wishaw SNP 0.38% 2nd SNP
6 Inverclyde SNP 0.49% 2nd SNP
7 Dunfermline and West Fife SNP 0.81% 2nd SNP
8 Edinburgh North and Leith SNP 1.44% 2nd SNP

Scottish Liberal Democrats[edit]

Rank Constituency Winning party 2017 Swing Required Liberal Democrats' place 2019 Result
1 North East Fife SNP <0.01% 1st Liberal Democrats
2 Ross, Skye and Lochaber SNP 9.67% 2nd SNP
3 Argyll and Bute SNP 15.04% 3rd SNP
4 Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey SNP 18.26% 3rd SNP
5 Dundee East SNP 23.60% 4th SNP

Scottish National Party[edit]

Rank Constituency Winning party 2017 Swing required SNP's place 2019 Result
1 Stirling Conservative 0.15% 1st SNP
2 Rutherglen and Hamilton West Labour 0.26% 1st SNP
3 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Labour 0.28% 1st SNP
4 Glasgow North East Labour 0.38% 1st SNP
5 Midlothian Labour 0.98% 1st SNP
6 Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Labour 1.76% 1st SNP
7 Gordon Conservative 2.43% 1st SNP
8 East Lothian Labour 2.76% 1st SNP
9 Edinburgh West Liberal Democrats 2.83% 2nd Liberal Democrats

See also[edit]

Footnotes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c Includes Neale Hanvey, who was suspended from the party at the time of his election and thus took his seat as an independent.
  2. ^ Young Voter's Special with representatives from the main parties where they debated in front of an audience of voters aged under 30
  3. ^ Social polling conducted by STV News shortly after the debate
  4. ^ The seat was won by Neale Hanvey, who was suspended from the party at the time of his election and thus took his seat as an independent.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "UK set for 12 December general election". 29 October 2019 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  2. ^ "Sturgeon says SNP landslide 'mandate for indyref2'". 13 December 2019. Retrieved 13 December 2019 – via www.bbc.com.
  3. ^ Jamieson, David (17 December 2019). "Analysis: Gathering storm – why 2020 is set to be a year of tension between Edinburgh and London". CommonSpace. Retrieved 21 December 2019.
  4. ^ Riddoch, Lesley (19 December 2019). "Lesley Riddoch: London is looking at Scotland with envy". The National. Retrieved 21 December 2019.
  5. ^ Fidler, Stephen (18 April 2017). "Brexit Set to Dominate U.K.'s Snap Election". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 21 April 2017.
  6. ^ This was a UK-wide poll, and the number of participants in Scotland was not recorded.
  7. ^ "Ruth Davidson quits as Scottish Tory leader citing Brexit and family". The Guardian. 29 August 2019. Archived from the original on 3 September 2019. Retrieved 3 September 2019.
  8. ^ "Richard Leonard to lead Scottish Labour". BBC News. 18 November 2017. Archived from the original on 7 April 2018. Retrieved 21 May 2017.
  9. ^ a b "STV to host General Election debate with Scottish leaders". STV News. 16 November 2019. Retrieved 19 November 2019.
  10. ^ "Results of the 2019 General Election in Scotland". BBC News.