2019 Uruguayan general election

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Uruguayan general election, 2019

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President before election

Tabare Vazquez
Broad Front

Elected President

TBD

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General elections will take place in Uruguay on 27 October 2019. If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff will take place on 24 November 2019.

Background[edit]

Since incumbent President Tabaré Vázquez, who won the 2014 election, is ineligible to run due to constitutional term limits, the government party must choose a new candidate.

Electoral system[edit]

The President of Uruguay is elected using the two-round system, with a run-off held if no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the first round. The 30 members of the Senate are elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency.. The vice president, elected on the same ballot as the president, become president of the Senate, with his vote being determining in case of tie[1] The 99 members of the Chamber of Representatives are elected by proportional representation in 19 multi-member constituencies based on the departments. Seats are allocated using the highest averages method.[2]

The elections are held using the double simultaneous vote method, whereby voters cast a single vote for the party of their choice for all three of the Presidency, the Senate and the Chamber of Representatives.

Candidacies[edit]

In June 2019 primaries will be held to select the candidates.

Opinion polls[edit]

A quick comparison with the previous election's polls shows that the ruling party has suffered a large drop in voter intent. Nevertheless, there is a substantial portion of voters who have marked their intention as "blank".[3]

Polling firm Fieldwork date FA PN PC PG PI UP Others Blank/Abs. Undecided Lead
Cifra[4] February 2019 34% 27% 14 % 3 % 2 % - 2 % 18 % - 7%
Factum[5] February 2019 38% 30% 16 % 5 % 4 % 2 % N/A 5 % N/A 8%
Radar[6] January/February 2019 37% 28% 13 % 3 % 2 % 1 % 2 % 7 % 7 % 9%
Radar[7] December 2018 33% 27% 12% 4% 3% 1% N/A 9% 9% 6%
Opción Consultores[8] December 2018 26% 27% 12% 5% 5% 2%. N/A 11% 12% 1%
Equipos[9] December 2018 30% 34% 11% 1% 2% 1% 1% 7% 13% 4%
Factum[10] November 2018 34% 30% 16% 7% 6% 2% N/A 5% N/A 4%
Radar[11] November 2018 32% 26% 13% 4% 3% N/A 2% 10% 10% 6%
Cifra[12] October 2018 36% 31% 9% 5% 6% 3% N/A 10% N/A 5%
Factum[13] August 2018 34% 30% 12% 7% 6% 2% N/A 9% N/A 4%
Radar[14] August 2018 30% 30% 8% 6% 2% 3% N/A 11% 10%  –
Cifra[15] August 2018 27% 26% 4% 3% 4% 1% N/A 35% 1%
Opción Consultores[16] July 2018 28% 31% 9% 8% 4% 2% N/A 8% 10% 3%
Radar[17] February 2018 33% 28% 7% 2% 2% N/A 3% 11% 13% 5%
Factum[18] April 2017 31% 30% 6% 9% 4% 2% N/A 18% N/A 1%

Bibliography[edit]

  • Fernández, Nelson (2017). El voto del agua tibia. Editorial Fin de Siglo. ISBN 9789974499089. (in Spanish)

References[edit]

  1. ^ Electoral system IPU
  2. ^ Electoral system IPU
  3. ^ Observador, El. "Batallas por la opinión pública". El Observador. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  4. ^ "Inicio de sesión en El País". sso.elpais.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  5. ^ "Factum: FA 38%; PN 30%; PC 16%; PGente 5%, PI 4%,UP 2%". 2019.com.uy. 26 February 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  6. ^ "Encuesta de Grupo Radar: Creció la intención de voto del Frente Amplio - VTV Noticias". vtv.com.uy. 12 February 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  7. ^ ElPais. "Para Radar, el FA está primero en intención de voto y a seis puntos del Partido Nacional". Diario EL PAIS Uruguay. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  8. ^ "Partido Nacional supera al Frente Amplio, según la última encuesta de Opción Consultores". subrayado.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  9. ^ ElPais. "Encuesta: FA cierra 2018 abajo de los blancos". Diario EL PAIS Uruguay. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  10. ^ Observador, El. "Colorados duplican su intención de voto en último semestre tras retorno de Sanguinetti". El Observador. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  11. ^ "14-11-2018 – (difundido en VTV Noticias) Vuelve a crecer el FA, y Martínez supera a Lacalle por 9 puntos. Crece fuertemente el PC « Grupo Radar". gruporadar.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  12. ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY" - Cifra". cifra.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  13. ^ http://factum.uy/analisis/2018/ana180910.php
  14. ^ "23-08-2018 – (difundido en VTV Noticias) Empate entre FA y PN, pero Martínez supera a Lacalle por 5 puntos. Crece la Oposición en su conjunto « Grupo Radar". gruporadar.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  15. ^ "CIFRA: Lideran los Indecisos NS/NC y en blanco con 35%; FA 27%; PN 26%; PC y PI 4%; y 3% PGente". 2019.com.uy. 8 August 2018. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  16. ^ Observador, El. "Elecciones: el Partido Nacional es el que tiene mayor aprobación, según encuesta de Opción". El Observador. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  17. ^ "08-02-2018 – (difundido en VTV Noticias) El FA supera al PN por 5 puntos en intención de voto por partido. « Grupo Radar". gruporadar.com.uy. Retrieved 18 March 2019.
  18. ^ http://factum.uy/encuestas/2017/enc170427.php

External links[edit]