2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary

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2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary

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61 Democratic National Convention delegates (52 pledged, 9 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
  Joe Biden February 2020 crop.jpg Bernie Sanders March 2020 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Home state Delaware Vermont
Delegate count 44 8
Popular vote 286,065 74,755
Percentage 63.28% 16.54%

  Michael Bloomberg by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg Elizabeth Warren by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Michael Bloomberg Elizabeth Warren
Home state New York Massachusetts
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 52,750 25,847
Percentage 11.67% 5.72%

Alabama Democratic presidential primary election results by county, 2020.svg
2020ALDprimary.svg
  Joe Biden

The 2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 14 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries for the 2020 United States presidential election. The open primary allocated 52 pledged delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, distributed in proportion to the results of the primary, statewide and within each congressional district. The state was also given an additional 9 unpledged delegates (superdelegates), whose votes at the convention were not bound to the result of the primary.

Five candidates ran in this primary, including former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts, and representative Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii's 2nd district. Eight other candidates who withdrew prior to the contest were also on the ballot. Joe Biden won by an overwhelming landslide, winning every county and congressional district in the state. He received 62.28% of the vote and was awarded 44 delegates. Senator Sanders came in second place, with 16.54% of the vote and 8 delegates. No other candidate received any delegates: Bloomberg won 11.67% of the vote and Warren won 5.72%. All other candidates received under 1% of the vote.[1]

Biden's landslide in the Yellowhammer State was unsurprising: The FiveThirtyEight forecast gave Biden a 92% chance of winning the state right before Super Tuesday.[2] 49% of the Democratic electorate in Alabama is African American, a group that consistently backed Biden throughout the primary. Black voters gave him 72% of the vote per exit polls by CNN.[3] In general, he performed best in Jefferson County, encompassing Birmingham, and counties in and around the heavily Democratic Black Belt. He also carried voters older than 65, which tend to back more moderate Democratic candidates and turn out in greater numbers, with 78%.[4] Biden carried every other demographic except for voters aged 18 to 29, a traditionally progressive voting bloc[5] that backed Sanders 46-30. Sanders was more competitive amongst white and rural voters, but were insufficient in overcoming Biden's massive advantage in the state.

Procedure[edit]

Alabama was one of 14 states holding primaries on March 3, 2020, also known as "Super Tuesday,"[6] having joined other southern states on the date after a bill signed on June 10, 2015 shifted the date.[7]

Voting took place from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m CST. In the open primary, candidates must meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable for delegates. The 52 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 52 pledged delegates, between 4 and 8 are allocated to each of the state's 7 congressional districts and another 7 are allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 11 at-large pledged delegates. Bonus delegates were allocated as Alabama shares a primary date with numerous other states on Super Tuesday.[8]

Should presidential candidates have been allocated more delegates based on the results of the primary than delegate candidates presented, then supplemental delegates were elected at caucuses on Saturday, March 28, 2020,[9] as were national convention district delegates from the best performing candidates. The state Democratic executive committee meeting was subsequently held on Saturday, June 6, 2020, to vote on the 11 pledged at-large and 7 PLEO delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention; the meeting was postponed from Saturday, April 4, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The 52 pledged delegates Alabama sent to the national convention were joined by 9 unpledged PLEO delegates (7 members of the Democratic National Committee, Senator Doug Jones, and U.S. Representative Terri Sewell).[8]

Candidates[edit]

The following people filed for the presidential primary and were on the ballot in Alabama:[10]

Running

Withdrawn

Fundraising[edit]

According to the Federal Election Commission, between April 1, 2019 and November 23, 2020, Joe Biden raised $2,412,420.93 from Alabama-based contributions.[11] Bernie Sanders raised $306,101.54,[12] Michael Bloomberg raised $212.82,[13] Elizabeth Warren raised $129,887.99,[14] and Tulsi Gabbard raised $19,775.81.[15][a]

Polling[edit]

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date
updated
Dates
polled
Joe
Biden
Bernie
Sanders
Michael
Bloomberg
Elizabeth
Warren
Tulsi
Gabbard
Other/
Undecided[b]
270 to Win March 3, 2020 February 28 – March 2, 2020 44.5% 21.0% 18.0% 11.0% 1.0% 4.5%
RealClear Politics March 3, 2020 Insufficient recent polling to supply an average.
FiveThirtyEight March 3, 2020 until March 2, 2020[c] 40.2% 18.4% 15.9% 10.9% 0.5% 14.1%
Average 42.35% 19.7% 16.95% 10.95% 0.75% 9.3%
Alabama primary results (March 3, 2020) 63.3% 16.5% 11.7% 5.7% 0.2% 2.6%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Alabama Democratic Primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Beto
O'Rourke
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Other Undecided
Mar 1–2, 2020 Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race
Swayable Mar 1–2, 2020 949 (LV) ± 5.0% 42% 18% 3% 20% 10% 8%[d]
Data for Progress Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2020 237 (LV) ± 6.4% 47% 18% 22% 12% 2%[e]
Jan 13, 2020 Booker withdraws from the race
Dec 3, 2019 Harris withdraws from the race
Nov 1, 2019 O'Rourke withdraws from the race
SurveyMonkey July 2–16, 2019 257 ± 7.8% 36% 2% 5% 13% 1% 15% 9% 10%[f]
Change Research March 20–23, 2019 1,200 ± 2.8% 42% 9% 3% 12% 10% 13% 6% 4%[g]
14% 4% 16% 17% 27% 12% 9%[h]

Results[edit]

Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary[1]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[16]
Joe Biden 286,065 63.28 44
Bernie Sanders 74,755 16.54 8
Michael Bloomberg 52,750 11.67 0
Elizabeth Warren 25,847 5.72 0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 2,250 0.50 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 1,416 0.31 0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 1,048 0.23 0
Tulsi Gabbard 1,038 0.23 0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 907 0.20 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 875 0.19 0
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 740 0.16 0
John Delaney (withdrawn) 294 0.07 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 224 0.05 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 184 0.04 0
Uncommitted 3,700 0.82 0
Total 452,093 100% 52

Results by county[edit]

2020 Alabama Democratic primary

(results by county)[1]

County Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Michael Bloomberg Elizabeth Warren Michael Bennet Pete Buttigieg Tom Steyer Tulsi Gabbard Amy Klobuchar Andrew Yang Cory Booker John Delaney Marianne Williamson Julian Castro Uncommitted Total votes cast
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Autauga 2,239 63.03% 604 17.00% 427 12.02% 193 5.43% 22 0.62% 10 0.28% 7 0.20% 5 0.14% 5 0.14% 9 0.25% 6 0.17% 1 0.03% 1 0.03% 2 0.06% 21 0.59% 3,552
Baldwin 7,321 58.24% 2,475 19.69% 1,516 12.06% 892 7.10% 33 0.26% 77 0.61% 42 0.33% 48 0.38% 26 0.21% 29 0.23% 13 0.10% 5 0.04% 6 0.05% 3 0.02% 84 0.67% 12,570
Barbour 1,899 74.97% 202 7.97% 287 11.33% 57 2.25% 31 1.22% 7 0.28% 5 0.20% 5 0.20% 5 0.20% 2 0.08% 6 0.24% 4 0.16% 4 0.16% 2 0.08% 17 0.67% 2,533
Bibb 559 56.18% 138 13.87% 243 24.42% 34 3.42% 4 0.40% 5 0.50% 1 0.10% 0 0% 0 0% 2 0.20% 1 0.10% 2 0.20% 0 0% 0 0% 6 0.60% 995
Blount 654 50.86% 336 26.13% 147 11.43% 91 7.08% 5 0.39% 9 0.70% 4 0.31% 5 0.39% 0 0% 8 0.62% 1 0.08% 1 0.08% 0 0% 2 0.16% 23 1.79% 1,286
Bullock 1,569 70.20% 149 6.67% 356 15.93% 44 1.97% 41 1.83% 5 0.22% 3 0.13% 10 0.45% 6 0.27% 7 0.31% 6 0.27% 3 0.13% 3 0.13% 1 0.04% 32 1.43% 2,235
Butler 1,451 65.92% 171 7.77% 507 23.03% 28 1.27% 9 0.41% 4 0.18% 4 0.18% 1 0.05% 1 0.05% 2 0.09% 3 0.14% 3 0.14% 2 0.09% 3 0.14% 12 0.55% 2,201
Calhoun 4,855 61.42% 1,506 19.05% 881 11.14% 457 5.78% 32 0.40% 25 0.32% 12 0.15% 27 0.34% 22 0.28% 19 0.24% 13 0.16% 4 0.05% 8 0.10% 1 0.01% 43 0.54% 7,905
Chambers 1,835 65.19% 285 10.12% 569 20.21% 61 2.17% 18 0.64% 4 0.14% 6 0.21% 10 0.36% 1 0.04% 9 0.32% 4 0.14% 0 0% 1 0.04% 0 0% 12 0.43% 2,815
Cherokee 455 53.85% 163 19.29% 147 17.40% 42 4.97% 2 0.24% 4 0.47% 2 0.24% 5 0.59% 5 0.59% 1 0.12% 3 0.36% 1 0.12% 1 0.12% 0 0% 14 1.66% 845
Chilton 856 62.25% 231 16.80% 168 12.22% 63 4.58% 15 1.09% 3 0.22% 7 0.51% 5 0.36% 2 0.15% 5 0.36% 2 0.15% 1 0.07% 0 0% 0 0% 17 1.24% 1,375
Choctaw 1,351 59.33% 216 9.49% 440 19.32% 30 1.32% 32 1.41% 11 0.48% 11 0.48% 17 0.75% 17 0.75% 7 0.31% 6 0.26% 1 0.04% 0 0% 2 0.09% 136 5.97% 2,277
Clarke 1,968 59.93% 258 7.86% 932 28.38% 43 1.31% 33 1.00% 6 0.18% 8 0.24% 2 0.06% 1 0.03% 3 0.09% 4 0.12% 1 0.03% 3 0.09% 2 0.06% 20 0.61% 3,284
Clay 486 67.03% 74 10.21% 94 12.97% 27 3.72% 10 1.38% 7 0.97% 3 0.41% 2 0.28% 3 0.41% 3 0.41% 0 0% 1 0.14% 0 0% 1 0.14% 14 1.93% 725
Cleburne 219 60.16% 60 16.48% 43 11.81% 25 6.87% 2 0.55% 5 1.37% 1 0.27% 0 0% 2 0.55% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 0.27% 6 1.65% 364
Coffee 1,597 63.80% 433 17.30% 276 11.03% 118 4.71% 10 0.40% 11 0.44% 7 0.28% 9 0.36% 3 0.12% 5 0.20% 9 0.36% 0 0% 0 0% 1 0.04% 24 0.96% 2,503
Colbert 2,996 63.58% 783 16.62% 603 12.80% 181 3.84% 26 0.55% 22 0.47% 7 0.15% 18 0.38% 9 0.19% 5 0.11% 7 0.15% 2 0.04% 1 0.02% 1 0.02% 51 1.08% 4,712
Conecuh 1,214 48.85% 254 10.22% 704 28.33% 52 2.09% 55 2.21% 5 0.20% 27 1.09% 14 0.56% 6 0.24% 9 0.36% 18 0.72% 5 0.20% 7 0.28% 3 0.12% 112 4.51% 2,485
Coosa 574 65.98% 99 11.38% 156 17.93% 21 2.41% 8 0.92% 1 0.11% 0 0% 0 0% 1 0.11% 2 0.23% 1 0.11% 1 0.11% 0 0% 0 0% 6 0.69% 870
Covington 856 66.36% 184 14.26% 166 12.87% 45 3.49% 12 0.93% 5 0.39% 8 0.62% 0 0% 1 0.08% 1 0.08% 1 0.08% 0 0% 1 0.08% 1 0.08% 9 0.70% 1,290
Crenshaw 554 62.81% 70 7.94% 221 25.06% 17 1.93% 5 0.57% 4 0.45% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 3 0.34% 2 0.23% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 6 0.68% 882
Cullman 1,262 49.86% 633 25.01% 317 12.52% 173 6.84% 10 0.40% 20 0.79% 9 0.36% 6 0.24% 15 0.59% 11 0.43% 5 0.20% 2 0.08% 1 0.04% 3 0.12% 64 2.53% 2,531
Dale 1,656 68.57% 401 16.60% 203 8.41% 86 3.56% 8 0.33% 14 0.58% 9 0.37% 6 0.25% 4 0.17% 5 0.21% 2 0.08% 2 0.08% 0 0% 0 0% 19 0.79% 2,415
Dallas 6,236 66.90% 897 9.62% 1,070 11.48% 237 2.54% 69 0.74% 44 0.47% 38 0.41% 58 0.62% 40 0.43% 52 0.56% 33 0.35% 13 0.14% 17 0.18% 7 0.08% 510 5.47% 9,321
DeKalb 1,193 53.62% 571 25.66% 267 12.00% 114 5.12% 8 0.36% 8 0.36% 13 0.58% 6 0.27% 7 0.31% 7 0.31% 2 0.09% 1 0.04% 0 0% 2 0.09% 26 1.17% 2,225
Elmore 3,089 64.77% 737 15.45% 591 12.39% 259 5.43% 16 0.34% 16 0.34% 5 0.10% 8 0.17% 5 0.10% 4 0.08% 5 0.10% 4 0.08% 3 0.06% 0 0% 27 0.57% 4,769
Escambia 1,462 68.74% 218 10.25% 341 16.03% 48 2.26% 19 0.89% 8 0.38% 3 0.14% 3 0.14% 2 0.09% 1 0.05% 3 0.14% 2 0.09% 0 0% 2 0.09% 15 0.71% 2,127
Etowah 3,749 62.14% 1,048 17.37% 808 13.39% 258 4.28% 27 0.45% 13 0.22% 16 0.27% 18 0.30% 18 0.30% 6 0.10% 13 0.22% 0 0% 0 0% 3 0.05% 56 0.93% 6,033
Fayette 401 51.15% 98 12.50% 217 27.68% 39 4.97% 6 0.77% 4 0.51% 3 0.38% 1 0.13% 3 0.38% 1 0.13% 0 0% 2 0.26% 4 0.51% 0 0% 5 0.64% 784
Franklin 633 57.49% 222 20.16% 155 14.08% 38 3.45% 7 0.64% 6 0.54% 5 0.45% 3 0.27% 3 0.27% 3 0.27% 2 0.18% 1 0.09% 0 0% 1 0.09% 22 2.00% 1,101
Geneva 511 62.62% 107 13.11% 138 16.91% 32 3.92% 12 1.47% 3 0.37% 3 0.37% 0 0% 0 0% 1 0.12% 1 0.12% 1 0.12% 0 0% 0 0% 7 0.86% 816
Greene 1,782 72.38% 191 7.76% 406 16.49% 21 0.85% 23 0.93% 7 0.28% 2 0.08% 1 0.04% 0 0% 5 0.20% 5 0.20% 4 0.16% 3 0.12% 3 0.12% 9 0.37% 2,462
Hale 1,327 51.67% 175 6.81% 950 36.99% 44 1.71% 26 1.01% 3 0.12% 7 0.27% 3 0.12% 2 0.08% 3 0.12% 7 0.27% 2 0.08% 1 0.04% 0 0% 18 0.70% 2,568
Henry 1,020 74.83% 167 12.25% 108 7.92% 22 1.61% 21 1.54% 1 0.07% 2 0.15% 0 0% 4 0.29% 3 0.22% 3 0.22% 2 0.15% 1 0.07% 0 0% 9 0.66% 1,363
Houston 3,912 69.23% 928 16.42% 432 7.64% 238 4.21% 19 0.34% 13 0.23% 11 0.19% 12 0.21% 13 0.23% 16 0.28% 14 0.25% 2 0.04% 3 0.05% 1 0.02% 37 0.65% 5,651
Jackson 1,039 55.56% 403 21.55% 267 14.28% 89 4.76% 7 0.37% 8 0.43% 8 0.43% 2 0.11% 10 0.53% 6 0.32% 3 0.16% 4 0.21% 0 0% 1 0.05% 23 1.23% 1,870
Jefferson 67,575 66.44% 16,149 15.88% 8,729 8.58% 7,311 7.19% 369 0.36% 277 0.27% 139 0.14% 153 0.15% 175 0.17% 164 0.16% 141 0.14% 39 0.04% 39 0.04% 33 0.03% 411 0.40% 101,704
Lamar 324 61.48% 55 10.44% 117 22.20% 11 2.09% 10 1.90% 0 0% 3 0.57% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 1 0.19% 0 0% 0 0% 2 0.38% 4 0.76% 527
Lauderdale 3,568 54.83% 1,547 23.77% 740 11.37% 470 7.22% 13 0.20% 25 0.38% 22 0.34% 18 0.28% 16 0.25% 22 0.34% 9 0.14% 4 0.06% 5 0.08% 2 0.03% 46 0.71% 6,507
Lawrence 1,355 65.59% 256 12.39% 343 16.60% 68 3.29% 9 0.44% 5 0.24% 7 0.34% 2 0.10% 2 0.10% 2 0.10% 3 0.15% 0 0% 2 0.10% 1 0.05% 11 0.53% 2,066
Lee 7,369 58.81% 2,609 20.82% 1,070 8.54% 1,218 9.72% 49 0.39% 42 0.34% 16 0.13% 38 0.30% 34 0.27% 28 0.22% 7 0.06% 4 0.03% 2 0.02% 2 0.02% 43 0.34% 12,531
Limestone 4,127 60.89% 1,411 20.82% 701 10.34% 400 5.90% 14 0.21% 24 0.35% 12 0.18% 19 0.28% 15 0.22% 12 0.18% 3 0.04% 0 0% 3 0.04% 1 0.01% 36 0.53% 6,778
Lowndes 2,406 69.74% 386 11.19% 433 12.55% 54 1.57% 42 1.22% 6 0.17% 31 0.90% 14 0.41% 7 0.20% 5 0.14% 8 0.23% 3 0.09% 2 0.06% 2 0.06% 51 1.48% 3,450
Macon 3,067 67.45% 481 10.58% 654 14.38% 166 3.65% 36 0.79% 7 0.15% 26 0.57% 15 0.33% 7 0.15% 9 0.20% 13 0.29% 3 0.07% 4 0.09% 1 0.02% 58 1.28% 4,547
Madison 25,916 57.54% 10,487 23.28% 4,113 9.13% 3,622 8.04% 79 0.18% 155 0.34% 64 0.14% 111 0.25% 111 0.25% 113 0.25% 59 0.13% 9 0.02% 10 0.02% 9 0.02% 181 0.40% 45,039
Marengo 2,120 62.12% 241 7.06% 882 25.84% 52 1.52% 38 1.11% 5 0.15% 6 0.18% 5 0.15% 9 0.26% 10 0.29% 6 0.18% 8 0.23% 1 0.03% 2 0.06% 28 0.82% 3,413
Marion 398 56.86% 134 19.14% 104 14.86% 35 5.00% 5 0.71% 2 0.29% 2 0.29% 0 0% 2 0.29% 1 0.14% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 17 2.43% 700
Marshall 1,581 52.52% 777 25.81% 364 12.09% 190 6.31% 5 0.17% 17 0.56% 15 0.50% 16 0.53% 20 0.66% 5 0.17% 1 0.03% 2 0.07% 0 0% 1 0.03% 16 0.53% 3,010
Mobile 26,923 66.73% 6,612 16.39% 4,277 10.60% 1,585 3.93% 203 0.50% 90 0.22% 137 0.34% 73 0.18% 47 0.12% 53 0.13% 82 0.20% 27 0.07% 22 0.05% 10 0.02% 207 0.51% 40,348
Monroe 1,716 69.87% 205 8.35% 405 16.49% 38 1.55% 32 1.30% 4 0.16% 11 0.45% 2 0.08% 2 0.08% 0 0% 10 0.41% 6 0.24% 2 0.08% 1 0.04% 22 0.90% 2,456
Montgomery 23,465 67.94% 4,502 13.04% 4,178 12.10% 1,484 4.30% 187 0.54% 81 0.23% 83 0.24% 51 0.15% 49 0.14% 34 0.10% 72 0.21% 36 0.10% 23 0.07% 13 0.04% 278 0.80% 34,536
Morgan 3,954 59.56% 1,250 18.83% 917 13.81% 339 5.11% 28 0.42% 27 0.41% 20 0.30% 13 0.20% 19 0.29% 11 0.17% 9 0.14% 2 0.03% 0 0% 4 0.06% 46 0.69% 6,639
Perry 2,094 74.97% 178 6.37% 296 10.60% 69 2.47% 28 1.00% 3 0.11% 10 0.36% 9 0.32% 9 0.32% 7 0.25% 13 0.47% 6 0.21% 2 0.07% 5 0.18% 64 2.29% 2,793
Pickens 1,142 52.77% 196 9.06% 752 34.75% 29 1.34% 19 0.88% 3 0.14% 5 0.23% 1 0.05% 5 0.23% 1 0.05% 1 0.05% 2 0.09% 2 0.09% 2 0.09% 4 0.18% 2,164
Pike 1,786 68.32% 433 16.56% 219 8.38% 105 4.02% 16 0.61% 4 0.15% 3 0.11% 4 0.15% 2 0.08% 7 0.27% 6 0.23% 6 0.23% 5 0.19% 4 0.15% 14 0.54% 2,614
Randolph 522 49.86% 122 11.65% 326 31.14% 28 2.67% 13 1.24% 5 0.48% 2 0.19% 5 0.48% 4 0.38% 1 0.10% 4 0.38% 0 0% 3 0.29% 0 0% 12 1.15% 1,047
Russell 3,221 69.75% 566 12.26% 634 13.73% 111 2.40% 17 0.37% 9 0.19% 4 0.09% 7 0.15% 13 0.28% 3 0.06% 5 0.11% 2 0.04% 2 0.04% 2 0.04% 22 0.48% 4,618
Shelby 9,543 56.87% 3,795 22.62% 1,415 8.43% 1,672 9.96% 31 0.18% 75 0.45% 21 0.13% 59 0.35% 36 0.21% 37 0.22% 13 0.08% 3 0.02% 3 0.02% 5 0.03% 71 0.42% 16,779
St. Clair 2,268 57.40% 835 21.13% 457 11.57% 283 7.16% 16 0.40% 25 0.63% 8 0.20% 16 0.40% 3 0.08% 9 0.23% 4 0.10% 2 0.05% 0 0% 0 0% 25 0.63% 3,951
Sumter 2,012 61.19% 289 8.79% 706 21.47% 57 1.73% 34 1.03% 11 0.33% 16 0.49% 10 0.30% 10 0.30% 13 0.40% 9 0.27% 12 0.36% 1 0.03% 4 0.12 104 3.16% 3,288
Talladega 4,617 69.12% 803 12.02% 917 13.73% 197 2.95% 54 0.81% 16 0.24% 9 0.13% 3 0.04% 7 0.10% 11 0.16% 11 0.16% 9 0.13% 4 0.06% 3 0.04 19 0.28% 6,680
Tallapoosa 1,762 65.70% 302 11.26% 438 16.33% 83 3.09% 40 1.49% 10 0.37% 8 0.30% 4 0.15% 8 0.30% 3 0.11% 6 0.22% 3 0.11% 0 0% 2 0.07 13 0.48% 2,682
Tuscaloosa 11,825 60.26% 3,552 18.10% 2,175 11.08% 1,684 8.58% 83 0.42% 54 0.28% 22 0.11% 54 0.28% 26 0.13% 30 0.15% 15 0.08% 8 0.04% 3 0.02% 8 0.04 84 0.43% 19,623
Walker 1,390 57.44% 538 22.23% 260 10.74% 136 5.62% 6 0.25% 9 0.37% 16 0.66% 4 0.17% 6 0.25% 6 0.25% 7 0.29% 4 0.17% 2 0.08% 6 0.25 30 1.24% 2,420
Washington 1,109 60.17% 156 8.46% 246 13.35% 37 2.01% 37 2.01% 11 0.60% 12 0.65% 9 0.49% 7 0.38% 9 0.49% 2 0.11% 5 0.27% 3 0.16% 3 0.16 197 10.69% 1,843
Wilcox 1,864 60.28% 284 9.18% 654 21.15% 62 2.01% 53 1.71% 11 0.36% 18 0.58% 12 0.39% 12 0.39% 13 0.42% 15 0.49% 10 0.32% 8 0.26% 7 0.23 69 2.23% 3,092
Winston 266 52.36% 117 23.03% 75 14.76% 32 6.30% 1 0.20% 5 0.98% 1 0.20% 1 0.20% 2 0.39% 1 0.20% 1 0.20% 1 0.20% 0 0% 0 0 5 0.98% 508
Total 286,065 63.28% 74,755 16.54% 52,750 11.67% 25,847 5.72% 2,250 0.50% 1,416 0.31% 1,048 0.23% 1,038 0.23% 907 0.20% 875 0.19% 740 0.16% 294 0.07% 224 0.05% 184 0.04% 3,700 0.82% 452,093

Analysis[edit]

Joe Biden's victory in Alabama was near-guaranteed. Four years earlier, Hillary Clinton carried the state with 77.84% against Bernie Sanders and won every county and congressional district, a feat repeated by Biden.[17] FiveThirtyEight, which made state-by-state predictions prior to the primaries, gave Biden a 92% chance at winning the Yellowhammer State, a landslide over Sanders' 5% chance.[18] Aggregate polling from FiveThirtyEight right before election day showed Biden up with 40.2%, Sanders at 18.4%, Bloomberg at 15.9%, Warren at 10.9%, Gabbard at 0.5%, and other/undecided 14.1%.[19] 270toWin had Biden ahead as well with 44.5% of support, 23.5 percentage points ahead of Bernie Sanders at 21%.[20]

The week before, Biden swept the South Carolina primary by a 28.88% margin over Sanders, reviving Biden's candidacy after crushing losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.[21] Additionally, the moderate wing of the primary, consisting of former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota, representative Beto O'Rourke from Texas's 16th district, and Senator Kamala Harris from California coalesced behind and endorsed Biden while the progressive wing, consisting of Senators Sanders and Warren, remained fractured.[22][23][24][25][26] Thus, right before Super Tuesday, Biden's support surged.

As with most states in the American South, the plurality – 49% – of Alabama's Democratic electorate is African American, and these voters backed Biden with 72% per exit polls by CNN.[27] Biden's best performance, regionally, was in the Black Belt, a historically Democratic region due to high proportions of African Americans, which is attributable to the prominence of slavery in this region before emancipation. He carried the Birmingham/South Central region with 68%, and this region comprises 44% of the Democratic electorate in the state. Biden won voters 45 to 64 with 67% and those older than 65 with 78%. He also won all education groups, ideologies, and party affiliations.

Sanders' best performance was among young voters, a demographic group he dominated in both 2016 and 2020. He captured voters aged 18 to 29 with 46%, 16 points ahead of Biden. However, this win was futile to overcome Biden, as young voters are more inconsistent voters[4] and their turnout decreased compared to 2016. According to the Brookings Institution, Alabama voters aged 17 to 29 comprised 14% of the Democratic primary vote share in 2016 but only 10% in 2020.[28] While Biden carried every race and region, Sanders was most competitive among white voters (consist of 46% of the electorate and backing Biden 57-22), voters in the North (also backing Biden 57-22), rural voters (38% of the electorate and backing Biden 52-19), and Independents (23% of the electorate and backing Biden 51-24); Sanders performed well among these voting blocs in 2016, and did so again, yet was overshadowed by Biden's strength in the Deep South.

Ideological differences were also evident. Self identified liberals only supported the Vice President 55-24, but he overwhelmed moderates with 74% of the vote. Bloomberg actually came second in the moderate and conservative vote, capturing 10% and 22%, respectively, ahead of Sanders with 8% and 5%. Biden's margins were narrowest among voters which prioritized addressing income inequality, whom he won 53-26, and believe the Democratic nominee should "bring needed change," who backed Biden 52-25. 24% of voters believed the Democratic nominee should have more liberal policies than Barack Obama, and Senator Sanders – considered the most progressive in the contest[29] – won this group 42-38, followed by Senator Warren carrying 12%.

On the same day, Biden carried all of the other southern Super Tuesday states of Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, and his upset victories in Maine, Massachusetts, and Minnesota catapulted him to frontrunner status.[30] He would go on to lose the state in the general election, but retained his resounding victories among Black voters in the Black Belt.

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Tulsi Gabbard's financial data for her 2020 presidential campaign is filed under the Tulsi Aloha PAC.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  3. ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  4. ^ Steyer with 2%; Klobuchar with 1%; Gabbard with 0%; "Other" with 5%
  5. ^ Gabbard with 2%
  6. ^ Sestak with 3%; Bennet with 2%; de Blasio, Bullock, Delaney, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Moulton, and Ryan with 0%
  7. ^ Castro, Klobuchar, Moulton, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Cuomo, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  8. ^ Klobuchar with 2%; Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, and Yang with 1%; Messam and Williamson with 0%

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c "Democratic Party – Official 2020 Primary Election Results". Alabama.gov. Alabama Secretary of State. March 11, 2020. Archived from the original on March 29, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  2. ^ Silver, Nate (January 9, 2020). "2020 Democratic Primary: Who will win the Alabama primary?". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  3. ^ "Exit and entrance polls from the 2020 primaries and caucuses". CNN. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  4. ^ a b Milligan, Susan (March 11, 2020). "Young Voters Love Bernie Sanders, But Older Votes Gave Joe Biden The Win". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  5. ^ Godfrey, Elaine (January 18, 2020). "Progressives Warn of a Great Deflation". The Atlantic. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  6. ^ Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  7. ^ Hogan, Melanie (June 10, 2015). "SEC Presidential Primary". WVAS. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  8. ^ a b "Alabama Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. June 7, 2019. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  9. ^ "Alabama Delegate Selection Plan for the 2020 Democratic National Convention". Alabama Democratic Party. June 6, 2019. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  10. ^ "Blog - Alabama Democrats". aldemocrats.org.
  11. ^ "BIDEN, JOSEPH R JR - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  12. ^ "SANDERS, BERNARD - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  13. ^ "BLOOMBERG, MICHAEL R. - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  14. ^ "WARREN, ELIZABETH - Candidate overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  15. ^ "TULSI ALOHA - committee overview". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  16. ^ "Alabama Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
  17. ^ "Alabama Primary Election Results 2016". The New York Times. March 1, 2016. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  18. ^ Silver, Nate (January 9, 2020). "2020 Democratic Primary: Who will win the Alabama primary?". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  19. ^ Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Koeze, Ella; Mehta, Dhrumil; Mithani, Jasmine; Wolfe, Julia (December 4, 2020). "Alabama President: Democratic primary Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Alabama Democratic Primary". 270toWin.com. Retrieved 2020-12-06.
  21. ^ Strauss, Daniel; Gambino, Lauren (November 1, 2020). "Joe Biden: from a campaign that almost collapsed to fighting Trump for the presidency". The Guardian. ISSN 0029-7712. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  22. ^ Edelman, Adam; Melvin, Craig; Thompson, Priscilla (March 2, 2020). "Pete Buttigieg endorses Joe Biden for president". NBC News. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  23. ^ Lah, Kyung; Merica, Dan; Sullivan, Kate; Wright, Jasmine (March 2, 2020). "Amy Klobuchar ends 2020 presidential campaign and endorses Joe Biden". CNN. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  24. ^ Dugyala, Rishika. "Beto O'Rourke endorses Biden". POLITICO. Retrieved 2020-12-06.
  25. ^ Dugyala, Rishika (March 8, 2020). "Kamala Harris endorses Biden". Politico. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  26. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (March 4, 2020). "How Biden Beat Expectations On Super Tuesday". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  27. ^ "Exit and entrance polls from the 2020 primaries and caucuses". CNN. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  28. ^ Hudak, John (March 10, 2020). "Bernie Sanders's failed coalition". Brookings Institution. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  29. ^ Bacon, Jr., Perry (February 11, 2019). "The Six Wings Of The Democratic Party". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  30. ^ "Super Tuesday: Live Primary Election Results". The New York Times. 2020-03-03. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 6, 2020.

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