2020 Dominican Republic general election

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2020 Dominican Republic general election

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Presidential election
  Decreto 368-20 (cropped).jpeg Gonzalo Castillo1.JPG Reunión de expresidentes (27782591751) (cropped).jpg
Nominee Luis Abinader Gonzalo Castillo Leonel Fernández
Party PRM PLD FP
Running mate Raquel Peña Margarita Cedeño Sergia Mejía
Popular vote 2,154,866 1,537,078 365,226
Percentage 52.52% 37.46% 8.90%

Electoral Map of Dominican Republic (2020).svg
Presidential election result by district

President before election

Danilo Medina
PLD

Elected President

Luis Abinader
PRM

General elections were held in the Dominican Republic on 5 July 2020 to elect a president, vice-president, 32 senators and 190 deputies. They had originally been planned for 17 May, but were postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.[1][2] They are the second elections since 1994 in which all positions will be elected simultaneously, and the first in Dominican history in which all authorities will be elected simultaneously and directly.[3][4][5][6]

Incumbent President Danilo Medina was ineligible to stand for re-election, having served two consecutive terms since 2012. The governing Dominican Liberation Party's 16-year rule ended after Modern Revolutionary Party candidate Luis Abinader received a majority of the vote.[7] Rival candidates Gonzalo Castillo and Leonel Fernández also conceded defeat.[7] The Modern Revolutionary Party also won a majority of seats in the Senate and a plurality in the Chamber of Deputies. The election was a partial realignment, with the Modern Revolutionary Party entering a status as a major party in the country, replacing the Dominican Revolutionary Party, who saw poor election results for the second election in a row and who obtained its lowest total vote share and seat count in its history. Abinader would be officially sworn in as President on 16 August.[8]

Electoral system[edit]

The President of the Dominican Republic is elected using the two-round system; if no candidate receives 50% + 1 vote, or more, of the total votes, a second-round runoff will be held between the two candidates with the highest votes on the first round.

The 32 members of the Senate are elected from the 31 provinces and the Distrito Nacional using first-past-the-post voting.[9]

The 190 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected in three groups; 178 are elected by proportional representation from 32 multi-member constituencies based on the 31 provinces and the Distrito Nacional, with the number of seats based on the population of each province. A further seven members are elected by proportional representation by Dominican expatriates in 3 overseas constituencies, and five seats are allocated at the national level to parties that received at least 1% of the vote nationally, giving preference to those that did not win any of the 178 constituency seats.[10]

The 20 seats in the Central American Parliament are elected by proportional representation.

Presidential candidates[edit]

Party Presidential candidate Vice presidential candidate
Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) Gonzalo Castillo[11] Margarita Cedeño
Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) Luis Abinader[11] Raquel Peña
Fuerza del Pueblo (FP) Leonel Fernández Sergia Elena Mejía
Alianza País (ALPAÍS) Guillermo Moreno García[11] Agustín González Morel
National Citizen Will Party (PNVC) Juan Cohen Hugo McFarlane Kaluche
Partido Demócrata Institucional (PDI) Ismael Reyes Cruz [es] Frank Gene Troncoso Haché

Opinion polls[edit]

President[edit]

Pollster Date(s) Castillo
(PLD)
Abinader
(PRM)
Fernandez
(FP)
Moreno
(ALPAIS)
Centro Económico del Cibao 11–13 Oct 2019 29.7% 43.7% 23.6%
Centro Económico del Cibao 3–5 Nov 2019 31% 42.9% 18.4% 1.9%
Centro Economico del Cibao[12][13] 29 Nov –1 Dec 2019 25.6% 46.6% 24.4%
Pool Logistic SRL 1–5 Dec 2019 49% 36% 3.9%
Ideame 3–10 Dec 2019 31.8% 47.5% 18.3%
ABC Marketing[permanent dead link] 10–14 Dec 2019 22.6% 47.3% 20.9%
Sigma Dos 15–17 Dec 2019 39.9% 35% 8%
Mark Penn/Stagwell[permanent dead link] 8–10 Jan 2020 28% 43% 19%
Gallup-RD 16–21 Jan 2020 31.4% 42.2% 15.5% 1.2%
Gallup-Hoy 16–21 Jan 2020 31.7% 44.9% 19.3%
CIES International 31 Jan–2 Feb 2020 35% 37% 11% 3%
Greenberg-Diario Libre 21–24 Feb 2020 24% 52% 17% 2%
CIES International 23–25 Feb 2020 28.8% 43.7% 12.6% 6.4%
CIMERAN< 28–29 Feb 2020 25% 52.5% 17.5% 3.5%
Centro Económico del Cibao 28 Feb–5 Mar 2020 21.0% 55.1% 15.6%
Sigma Dos 2–7 Apr 2020 38.8% 36.6% 9.6%
Horizon Research LLC 7 Apr 2020 23.6% 43.9% 31.2%
Global Trend Research 12–15 Apr 2020 22.9% 43.1% 30.4% 0.8%
ASISA 13–19 Apr 2020 20.4% 44% 29.1%
JB Consulting Group 14–20 Apr 2020 46.6% 31.1% 3.6%
APD Consulting Group 17–20 Apr 2020 24.1% 54.4% 11.8% 4.6%
CIES International 17–20 Apr 2020 33% 39% 9% 4%
Centro Economico del Cibao 18–19 Apr 2020 23.7% 53.4% 7.3% 1%
Polimetrics 22–25 Apr 2020 40.8% 38.3% 9.3% 1.9%
CID Latinoamericana 22–23 Apr 2020 40% 38% 8%
New Partners 23–26 Apr 2020 27.4% 52.1% 9.9% 2.1%
Market Reports 25–27 Apr 2020 22.4% 42.8% 31.2%
Mercado & Cuantificaciones 27–29 Apr 2020 30.3% 52.3% 12.3% 1.7%
GIDL 26 Apr–1 May 2020 23.2% 41.9% 32.4%
Datamarket 1–3 May 2020 26% 46% 21% 2%
Horizon Research LCC 3–7 May 2020 22.8% 41.3% 33.5%
Effective Project Comunications[permanent dead link] 4–7 May 2020 29% 49% 16% 3%
Polimetric 4–9 May 2020 40.4% 37.7% 8.8%
Centro Economico del Cibao 11–12 May 2020 35.2% 53.9% 9.5%
ABC Marketing 13–16 May 2020 26.5% 55.6% 14.5%
SISGLO 17–20 May 2020 24.1% 40.6% 33.8%
Centro Economico del Cibao 18–19 May 2020 34.6% 53.3% 9.9% 2.2%
Elections &  Proyect Corp 20–22 May 2020 21.8% 42.1% 33.9%
IDEAME 18–23 May 2020 31.5% 51.8% 14.3% 1%
José Dorín Cabrera Mercadología 21–23 May 2020 46.9% 36.7% 9.5% 2.2%
Mark Penn/Stagwell 20–25 May 2020 37% 39% 10%
APD Consulting Group 21–25 May 2020 34.4% 51.6% 11.6% 2.3%
CID Latinoamericana[14][15] 23–24 May 2020 41% 39% 10% 3%
ASISA 13–19 Apr 2020 20.4% 44% 29.1%
Centro Economico del Cibao 25–26 May 2020 34.0% 53.5% 10.3% 2.1%
CIES International 24–27 May 2020 29% 52% 10% 6%
CYGNAL 26 May–2 Jun 2020 28.2% 54.6% 13.9% 3.4%
Mercado & Cuantificaciones 28–30 May 2020 33% 51.3% 11.2% 1.1%
Datamarket 26–30 May 2020 27% 44% 21% 2%
Polimetrics 30–31 May 2020 40.7% 37.5% 8.5% 2.6%
GIDL 1–3 Jun 2020 21.5% 40.7% 33.4% 1.7%
Mercado & Cuantificaciones 2–5 Jun 2020 34.5% 52.1% 8.2%
New Partners 2–5 Jun 2020 29.5% 50.7% 11.4%
Global Trend Research 4–6 Jun 2020 25.7% 40.3% 30.8%
Gavindian Polsters 4–8 Jun 2020 38% 52% 9% 1%
Ideame 5–9 Jun 2020 34.4% 52.5% 10.9% 0.9%
Centro de Innovación y Políticas Públicas 6–9 Jun 2020 36.3% 52.3% 7.7% 1%
CID Latinoamericana 9–11 Jun 2020 43% 44% 9% 1%
Consulting and Field International 9–12 Jun 2020 43% 40% 9% 2%
Sigma Dos[16][17] 12–14 Jun 2020 43.6% 40.4% 10.1% 1.9%
John Zogby Strategies 12–14 Jun 2020 34% 54% 9% 2%
Datamarket 12–14 Jun 2020 32% 43% 17% 2%
Greenberg-Diario Libre 11–16 Jun 2020 29% 56% 12% 1%
Gallup 12–16 Jun 2020 35.5% 53.7% 8.6% 1.3%
Mercado y Cuantificaciones 15–17 Jun 2020 33.5% 55.8% 7.0% 0.3%
PoliRD 16–18 Jun 2020 45.1% 41.7% 9.8% 1.8%
ABC Marketing 15–20 Jun 2020 32.6% 54.8% 10.4%
Market Reports 18–21 Jun 2020 26.2% 40.8% 30.6%
Polismetrics 20–25 Jun 2020 42.9% 39.2% 9.6% 1.8%
Emevenca 20–23 Jun 2020 41% 46% 8% 2%
Mark Penn /Stagwell-SIN 16–23 Jun 2020 35% 47% 11%
GIDL 21–23 Jun 2020 23.8% 43% 29.7% 1.2%
Centro Economico del Cibao 22–23 Jun 2020 33.4% 55.2% 9.7% 1.7%
NewPartners Archived 27 June 2020 at the Wayback Machine 24–25 Jun 2020 29% 54% 10%

Party identification and Congress[edit]

Pollster Date(s) PLD PRM FP PRSC PRD ALPAIS N/A Others
CIES International 19–22 Sep 2019 31% 33% 3.3% 1.2% 4.7% 15.6% 12.2%
Gallup-Hoy 16–21 Jan 2020 37.5% 43.3% 8.5% 0.1% 7.6% 2.9%
CIES International 23–25 Feb 2020 27.5% 43.6% 10% 3.8% 1.3% 2.5% 11.3%
Makert Reports 25–27 Apr 2020 29.1% 34.7% 19.1% 3.6% 2.3% 6.8% 4.2%
Datamarket[18] 1–3 May 2020 27% 37% 7% 6% 4% 2% 6% 11%
Effective Project Comunications[permanent dead link] 4–7 May 2020 32% 44% 8% 6% 4% 1% 2% 3%
José Dorín Cabrera Mercadología 21–23 May 2020 34.2% 23.2% 8.4% 0.5% 30.1% 3.6%
CID Latinoamericana 23–24 May 2020 45% 38% 6%
Datamarket 26–30 May 2020 27% 37% 7% 6% 4% 2% 6% 11%
CYGNAL 26 May–2 Jun 2020 26.7% 40.5% 9.5%
Polimetrics 30–31 May 2020 35.4% 29.9% 8.9% 0.9% 25.7% 9.2%
CID Latinoamerica[permanent dead link] 9–11 Jun 2020 43% 40% 7% 1% 2% 1% 5% 1%
Mercados y Cuantificaciones 15–17 Jun 2020 34% 47.8% 5.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 9.3% 1%
ABC Marketing 15–20 Jun 2020 29.8% 46.7% 12.3% 3.1% 6.0%
Market Reports 18–21 Jun 2020 27.3% 33.2% 22.2% 3.6% 2.3% 6.8% 4.6%
GIDL 21–23 Jun 2020 23.7% 34.7% 21.7% 4.2% 1.3% 8.2%
NewPartners Archived 27 June 2020 at the Wayback Machine 24–25 Jun 2020 28% 50% 6% 0% 1% 1% 13% 1%

Conduct[edit]

It was initially reported that representatives of the Organization of American States (OAS) would arrive to the Dominican Republic on 13 February 2020 to monitor the elections.[19][20][21] The general election to elect the President and members of the Dominican Republic parliament, which was postponed from the scheduled 17 May 2020 date due to the COVID-19 pandemic, was later held on 5 July 2020.[22][23]

Local media reported that the elections proceeded smoothly, except for one incident, when a person was shot inside a polling station after an argument erupted between rival party supporters.[24]

Results[edit]

President[edit]

Luis Abinader won the presidential election in the first round, obtaining over 50% of the vote. During the election count, the ruling Dominican Liberation Party's candidate Gonzalo Castillo conceded defeat, stating that the official count "shows that there is an irreversible trend and that from now on we have a president-elect... Our congratulations to Mr Luis Abinader."[7] Former President Leonel Fernández, who left the ruling party and ran for the presidency as a member of the People's Force party, also conceded defeat.[7] Abinader was sworn in as President of the Dominican Republic on 16 August 2020.[8]

CandidatePartyVotes%
Luis AbinaderModern Revolutionary Party and allies[a]2,154,86652.51
Gonzalo CastilloDominican Liberation Party and allies[b]1,537,07837.46
Leonel FernándezPeople's Force and allies[c]365,2268.90
Guillermo Moreno GarcíaCountry Alliance39,4580.96
Ismael Reyes Cruz [es]Institutional Democratic Party3,4840.08
Juan CohenNational Citizen Will Party3,2500.08
Total4,103,362100.00
Valid votes4,103,36298.56
Invalid/blank votes59,9431.44
Total votes4,163,305100.00
Registered voters/turnout7,529,93255.29
Source: JCE

Senate[edit]

The Modern Revolutionary Party won an absolute majority in the Senate on their own, seeing their seat total increase by 15, while the ruling Dominican Liberation party lost over 75% of their prior seats.

Senado de República Dominicana 2020.svg
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Modern Revolutionary Party1,768,58845.2417+15
Dominican Liberation Party1,267,16832.416–20
People's Force141,8363.631+1
Social Christian Reformist Party116,3532.986+5
Dominican Revolutionary Party111,4762.850–1
National Unity Party55,0571.4100
Country Alliance54,2091.3900
Dominicans for Change48,3651.241+1
Social Democratic Institutional Bloc48,1241.2310
Civic Renovation Party36,0300.9200
Alternative Democratic Movement27,7450.7100
Liberal Reformist Party25,2760.650–1
Broad Front24,8630.6400
Revolutionary Social Democratic Party23,0930.5900
Alliance for Democracy20,8680.5300
Christian People's Party18,8170.4800
Quisqueyano Christian Democratic Party17,1250.4400
Dominican Humanist Party15,9630.4100
Liberal Party of Action14,5370.3700
National Progressive Force14,4850.3700
Christian Democratic Union12,3920.3200
Possible Country11,1360.280New
Independent Revolutionary Party9,6280.2500
People's Democratic Party9,5680.2400
Institutional Democratic Party8,9710.2300
National Citizen Will Party7,6510.2000
Total3,909,324100.00320
Valid votes3,909,32497.01
Invalid/blank votes120,5622.99
Total votes4,029,886100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,934,05358.12
Source: JCE (votes) JCE (seats) Ganadores Elecciones Julio 2020

Chamber of Deputies[edit]

The Modern Revolutionary Party won a plurality of votes and seats, seeing their seat count more than double. The ruling Dominican Liberation Party lost nearly 30% of their prior seats. No party has a majority on their own in the Chamber, meaning alliances or coalitions will need to be made to guarantee the passage of bills. A total of 96 seats is needed for a majority.

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Modern Revolutionary Party1,634,86040.8486+44
Dominican Liberation Party1,261,80231.5275–31
Dominican Revolutionary Party220,9395.524–12
People's Force170,9934.273+3
Social Christian Reformist Party165,8004.146–12
Country Alliance71,8991.802+1
Dominicans for Change45,1621.132+2
Dominican Humanist Party42,5971.061+1
Civic Renovation Party39,5890.991+1
Social Democratic Institutional Bloc37,2350.932+2
Revolutionary Social Democratic Party33,3620.831+1
Alternative Democratic Movement32,7230.820–1
Broad Front30,4290.763+2
National Unity Party27,6000.6900
Alliance for Democracy26,5700.662+2
Christian People's Party20,8940.520–1
Quisqueyano Christian Democratic Party19,4140.4810
Christian Democratic Union18,1990.4500
Liberal Party of Action17,6550.4400
Liberal Reformist Party15,6520.391–2
Possible Country15,3460.380New
National Citizen Will Party12,5170.3100
Independent Revolutionary Party12,3680.3100
National Progressive Force10,9590.2700
People's Democratic Party10,5980.2600
Institutional Democratic Party7,9970.2000
Total4,003,159100.001900
Valid votes4,003,15996.34
Invalid/blank votes151,9463.66
Total votes4,155,105100.00
Registered voters/turnout7,529,93255.18
Source: JCE, JCE

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Padrón para las elecciones de mayo tendrá un incremento de más de 69 mil electores" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 14 January 2020. Retrieved 14 January 2020.
  2. ^ "La JCE pospone las elecciones presidenciales y congresuales para el 5 de julio" (in European Spanish). Diario Libre. 14 April 2020. Retrieved 14 April 2020.
  3. ^ "Elecciones de 2020 son un reto para la JCE" (in European Spanish). El Día. 2 August 2017. Retrieved 2 December 2017.
  4. ^ "Este será el orden de los partidos en la próxima boleta electoral" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 10 December 2019. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
  5. ^ "Candidatos presidenciales podrán gastar más de 900 millones durante campaña electoral" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 17 March 2020. Retrieved 17 March 2020.
  6. ^ "La JCE aprueba tres formatos distintos para boletas de mayo" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 19 March 2020. Retrieved 19 March 2020.
  7. ^ a b c d BBC News (6 July 2020). "Change in Dominican Republic as opposition wins presidency". Yahoo News. Retrieved 6 July 2020.
  8. ^ a b "Luis Abinader Sworn in as Dominican Leader; Pompeo Attends". U.S. News. Associated Press. 16 August 2020. Retrieved 16 August 2020.
  9. ^ Senado (Senate) IPU
  10. ^ Cámara de Diputados (Chamber of Deputies) IPU
  11. ^ a b c "Once partidos gestan coalición para desplazar al PLD del poder" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 23 October 2019. Retrieved 23 October 2019.
  12. ^ "Luis derrotaría fácil a Gonzalo y a Leonel en primera vuelta, según encuesta". Acento (in European Spanish). Retrieved 23 June 2020.[permanent dead link]
  13. ^ Diario, Listin (10 December 2019). "Encuesta otorga mayoría de simpatías a Luis Abinader". listindiario.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 June 2020.
  14. ^ "Resumen y Predicciones de Encuestas Elecciones 2020 Republica Dominicana". ElInfluyente.com. 16 June 2020. Retrieved 22 June 2020.
  15. ^ Hoy (1 June 2020). "Encuesta dice ya Gonzalo Castillo está arriba de Luis Abinader en primera y segunda vuelta | Hoy Digital" (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 June 2020.
  16. ^ Diario, Listin (21 June 2020). "Encuesta da a Gonzalo 43.6%, Abinader 40.4% y Leonel 10.1%". listindiario.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 June 2020.
  17. ^ Noticias, R. C. (21 June 2020). "Gonzalo Castillo ganaría las elecciones con una ventaja de más de 3 puntos frente a Luis Abinader, según encuesta". Roberto Cavada (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 June 2020.
  18. ^ Noticias, R. C. (5 May 2020). "Abinader ganaría elecciones con 46 %; Gonzalo Castillo 26 % y Leonel Fernández 21 %, según encuesta Datamarket". Roberto Cavada (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 June 2020.
  19. ^ "Misión de OEA observará elecciones del 2020 en República Dominicana" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 25 November 2019. Retrieved 25 November 2019.
  20. ^ "Observadores electorales de la OEA harán visita preliminar la próxima semana" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 17 January 2020. Retrieved 17 January 2020.
  21. ^ "JCE recibirá observadores de 20 países para elecciones municipales" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 9 February 2020. Retrieved 9 February 2020.
  22. ^ "Dominicans vote in election postponed over virus". BBC News. 5 July 2020. Retrieved 6 July 2020.
  23. ^ "Polls open in Dominican Republic presidential election". France 24. 5 July 2020. Retrieved 6 July 2020.
  24. ^ "Change in Dominican Republic as opposition wins presidency". Archived from the original on 4 August 2020. Retrieved 6 July 2020.