2020 Hong Kong legislative election

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2020 Hong Kong legislative election

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All 70 seats to the Legislative Council
36 seats needed for a majority
  Starry Lee Lo Wai-kwok Wu Chi-wai
Leader Starry Lee Lo Wai-kwok Wu Chi-wai
Party DAB BPA Democratic
Alliance Pro-Beijing Pro-Beijing Pro-democracy
Leader's seat District Council (Second) Engineering Kowloon East
Last election 12 seats, 16.68% 7 seats, 2.29% 7 seats, 9.22%
Current seats 13 8 7

  Alvin Yeung Ng Chau-pei Felix Chung
Leader Alvin Yeung Ng Chau-pei Felix Chung
Party Civic FTU Liberal
Alliance Pro-democracy Pro-Beijing Pro-Beijing
Leader's seat New Territories East No seat Textiles & Garment
Last election 6 seats, 9.59% 5 seats, 7.83% 4 seats, 0.99%
Current seats 5 5 4

  Regina Ip Paul Zimmerman Cheng Chung-tai
Leader Regina Ip Paul Zimmerman Cheng Chung-tai
Party NPP Prof Commons Civic Passion
Alliance Pro-Beijing Pro-democracy N/A
Leader's seat Hong Kong Island No seat New Territories West
Last election 3 seats, 7.73% 2 seats 1 seat, 5.63%
Current seats 2 2 1

Incumbent President

Andrew Leung
BPA



The 2020 Hong Kong Legislative Council election is scheduled in September 2020 for the 7th Legislative Council of Hong Kong (LegCo). A total of 70 members, 35 from geographical constituencies (GCs) and 35 from functional constituencies (FCs), will be returned.

Background[edit]

Anti-extradition protests and District Council landslide[edit]

In mid 2019, the Carrie Lam administration push for an amendment of the extradition law created an unprecedented political crisis in Hong Kong.[1] More than a million people marched against the bill in mid June and resulted in violent clashes between the police and the protesters outside the Central Government Complex on 12 June.[2]

The protests dragged on and escalated as Carrie Lam refused to fully withdraw the bill, resulting a huge anti-government sentiment that projected on the November District Council election, where the pro-Beijing parties suffered historic defeat, costing them about two third of the seats. The pro-democrats jumped from around 124 to about 388 seats and took control of 17 of the 18 District Councils as a result.[3]

The stunning results greatly boosted the morale of the pro-democrats who turned their eyes on a majority of the Legislative Council in 2020 election. Benny Tai, initiator of the 2014 Occupy protests, suggested the chance of the pro-democrats winning more than half of the seats to block the government's bills including the expected legislation of the Article 23 of the Basic Law and pressured the government to implement the five key demands of the protest movement. He also initiated "ThunderGo plan 2.0", which mirrored his coordinating mechanism of "smart voters" in the 2016 election to strategic voting in order to increase the chance of the pro-democracy candidates.[4]

Beijing's new officials in Hong Kong[edit]

In early 2020, the central government suddenly shuffled the personnels and organisations of its representative organs in Hong Kong by replacing the China's Liaison Office in Hong Kong director Wang Zhimin with former Communist Party secretary in Shanxi Luo Huining and Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office director Zhang Xiaoming with former Communist Party secretary in Zhejiang Xia Baolong, with Luo becoming his deputy.[5] Political analysts speculated that one of the key tasks for Luo and Xia was to make sure that the pro-Beijing camp would continue to hold the majority in the legislature in the coming election.[6]

The two Beijing's agencies in Hong Kong had been unusually outspoken, going on offensive by urging the Hong Kong government for implement new national security law to safeguard national security, signalling the need for reintroducing the Article 23 legislation.[7] In mid April, the two offices also strongly condemned pro-democrat legislator Dennis Kwok for filibustering in the legislature's House Committee. It also rejected the claim that they had breached the Article 22 of the Basic Law which stated that "no department of the Central People’s Government and no province, autonomous region, or municipality directly under the Central Government" shall interfere in Hong Kong affairs. Instead it claimed that the offices had the responsibility and right to "supervise" how "One Country, Two Systems” was implemented in Hong Kong. The offices' statements contradicted the previous common understanding on the provision among Hong Kong officials, politicians and legal experts, which resulted in the Hong Kong government's abrupt revisions of its statement twice within hours in order to align with Beijing's stance.[8]

Coronavirus outbreak[edit]

The months-long anti-government protests and the alleged initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak cost Carrie Lam's substantial public support. A Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute survey in late January found 75 per cent of respondents were dissatisfied with the government's response to the outbreak, while Lam's support rating sunk to nine per cent in late February, the lowest on record for any leader.[9][10] In February 2020, a confidential report by Carrie Lam to the central government revealed that Lam's attempt to win back the public trust and support by effectively handling the coronavirus outbreak in which she believed would serve as a political turnaround for the coming election.[11]

On 5 May, two former Chief Executives Tung Chee-hwa and Leung Chun-ying launched a pro-Beijing alliance Hong Kong Coalition.[12] The alliance was co-sponsored by 1,545 representatives of various sectors including senior politicians, former government officials, university heads and tycoons. It said it aimed to "get Hong Kong start again" by boosting the declining economy and uniting the divided society. It also announced to give away 10 million face masks across all 18 districts of Hong Kong.[13] Political scientist Ivan Choy believed the alliance was set up as a part of the electioneering of the pro-Beijing camp in the coming election and to support Beijing's Hong Kong policy.[14]

Retiring incumbents[edit]

Constituency Departing incumbents Party First elected
Hong Kong Island Tanya Chan[15] Civic 2008
Kowloon West Chiang Lai-wan[16] DAB 2012
Kowloon East Wong Kwok-kin[17] FTU 2008
New Territories East Fernando Cheung[18] Labour 2004 (Social Welfare)
Yung Hoi-yan[19] NPP/CF 2016
Labour Poon Siu-ping[20] FLU 2012
Luk Chung-hung[21] FTU 2016
Social Welfare Shiu Ka-chun[15] Independent 2016
Real Estate and Construction Abraham Shek[22] BPA 2000
Industrial (First) Andrew Leung[23] BPA 2004
Import and Export Wong Ting-kwong[24][25] DAB 2004

Potential candidates[edit]

Potential individuals with at least one reliable source:

Geographical Constituencies[edit]

Hong Kong Island (6 seats)[edit]

Kowloon West (6 seats)[edit]

Kowloon East (5 seats)[edit]

New Territories West (9 seats)[edit]

New Territories East (9 seats)[edit]

District Council (Second)[edit]

Traditional Functional Constituencies[edit]

Education[edit]

  • Ip Kin-yuen (PTU), incumbent Legislative Council member for Education[52]
  • Tang Fei (FEW), principal of Heung To Middle School[52]

Health Services[edit]

  • Joseph Lee Kok-long (Nonpartisan), incumbent Legislative Council member for Health Services[53]
  • Yu Wai-ming (Nonpartisan), chairwoman of the Hospital Authority Employees Alliance[53]
  • Yuen Wai-kit (Nonpartisan), head of the School of Nursing of the Union Hospital[53]
  • Michael Felix Lau Hoi-man (Nonpartisan), officer of the Hong Kong Allied Health Professionals and Nurse Association[53]

Engineering[edit]

  • Lo Wai-kwok (BPA), incumbent Legislative Council member for Engineering[54]
  • Wilson Wong (Nonpartisan), founder of the Hong Kong Federation of Young Professionals[54]

Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape[edit]

  • Tony Tse (BPA), incumbent Legislative Council member for Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape[54]
  • Kwan Siu-lun (Nonpartisan), Election Committee member for Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape subsector[54]

Labour (3 seats)[edit]

Real Estate and Construction[edit]

  • Clarence Leung (BPA), son of the Legislative Council President Andrew Leung, and spokesman of the BPA Youth Committee[22]
  • Howard Chao (Liberal), chairman of the Liberal Party Youth Committee and convenor of the Development and Construction Industry Concern Group[22]

Tourism[edit]

  • Yiu Si-wing (Nonpartisan), incumbent Legislative Council member for Tourism[55]
  • Paul Chan (Nonpartisan), founder of GLO Travel[38][55]
  • Frankie Chow (Nonpartisan), founder of Flyagain.la[56]

Sports, Performing Arts, Culture and Publication[edit]

Import and Export[edit]

Catering[edit]

District Council (First)[edit]

Opinion polling[edit]

By camps[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling source Sample size Anti-establishment[a] Pro-establishment Undecided/Not Voting/Other Lead
17-20 March 2020 Reuters 1,001 58% 22% 20% 36%
4 September 2016 2016 legislative election 55.0% 40.1% (41.7%) 13.9%

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