2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search
2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

← 2016 March 3, 2020 2024 →
← ME
MN →

114 Democratic National Convention delegates (91 pledged, 23 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
  Joe Biden February 2020 crop.jpg Bernie Sanders March 2020 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Home state Delaware Vermont
Delegate count 45 30
Popular vote 473,861 376,990
Percentage 33.41% 26.58%

  Elizabeth Warren by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg Michael Bloomberg by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Elizabeth Warren Michael Bloomberg
Home state Massachusetts New York
Delegate count 16 0
Popular vote 303,864 166,200
Percentage 21.43% 11.72%

Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary election results by county, 2020.svg
Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary election results by municipality, 2020.svg
  Joe Biden   Bernie Sanders   Elizabeth Warren

The 2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary took place in Massachusetts, United States, on March 3, 2020, as one of 14 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Massachusetts primary was a semi-closed primary, with the state awarding 114 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 91 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

Joe Biden won the state, whilst Bernie Sanders finished second and Elizabeth Warren finished third in her home state. Biden carried most of the state's counties and townships. Biden's victory was seen by many observers as a surprise, as both Sanders and Warren were favored in pre-election polls and forecasts over the former Vice President. [1][2]

One of the bigger upsets of the night, major polling prior to Super Tuesday had seen Sanders emerge as the favorite to win, edging out senator Elizabeth Warren in her home state. In fact, Joe Biden was only attributed a 1 in 12 chance of winning Massachusetts, but owing to his success in South Carolina and last minute endorsements from former Democratic opponents Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Beto O'Rourke, the former Vice President was able to surpass expectations and won the primary by more than 6%.[3][4]

Procedure[edit]

Massachusetts was one of 14 states holding primaries on March 3, 2020, also known as "Super Tuesday".[5]

Voting took place throughout the state from 7:00 a.m. until 8:00 p.m. in much of the state, with some precincts opening at 5:45 a.m. In the semi-closed primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level to be considered viable. The 24 unpledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 91 pledged delegates, between 6 and 8 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts and another 12 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 20 at-large pledged delegates (although there are 114 delegates as stated in the approved MA 2020 Delegate Selection Plan[6]). These numbers include bonus delegates allocated to Massachusetts, since it shares a primary date with numerous other states on Super Tuesday.[7]

After congressional district caucuses on Saturday, April 25, 2020, during which national convention district delegates were selected, the state convention subsequently was held on Saturday, May 16, 2020, to vote on the 20 pledged at-large and 12 PLEO delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 91 pledged delegates Massachusetts sent to the national convention were joined by 23 unpledged PLEO delegates (9 members of the Democratic National Committee; 11 members of Congress, including both Senators, notably Elizabeth Warren, and 9 U.S. Representatives, notably Seth Moulton; and former DNC chairs Steven Grossman, Debra DeLee, and Paul G. Kirk).[7]

Candidates[edit]

The Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth released the following list of candidates on the ballot:[8]

Running

Withdrawn

Polling[edit]

Polling Aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date
updated
Dates
polled
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Tulsi
Gabbard
Others/
Undecided[a]
270 to Win March 3, 2020 Until March 3, 2020 22.4% 21.0% 15.0% 13.6% 1.8% 26.2%
FiveThirtyEight March 3, 2020 until March 3, 2020 [b] 24.4% 21.0% 18.1% 14.5% 0.4% 21.6%
Average 23.4% 21.0% 16.6% 14.0% 1.1% 23.9%
Massachusetts primary results (March 3, 2020) 26.6% 21.4% 33.4% 11.7% 0.7% 6.1%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic Primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Beto
O'Rourke
Deval
Patrick
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Other Undecided
Mar 2, 2020 Klobuchar withdraws from the race; endorses Biden
Swayable Mar 1–2, 2020 917 (LV) ± 4.0% 17% 18% 11% 5% 27% 15% 8%[d]
Data for Progress Feb 28–Mar 2, 2020 301 (LV) ± 5.6% 26% 15% 2% 1% 26% 28% 2%[e]
Mar 1, 2020 Buttigieg withdraws from the race; endorses Biden
Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV Feb 26–29, 2020 500 (LV) - 11.0% 13.0% 12.4% 5.0% 24.2% 22.2% 3.6%[f] 8.6%
WBUR/MassINC Feb 23-26, 2020 426 (LV) ± 4.9% 9% 13% - 14% - 6% - - 25% 17% 9%[g] 8%
UMass Amherst Feb 18-24, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.9% 12% 9% - 14% - 7% - - 25% 23% 8%[h] 3%
Falchuk & DiNatale Feb 16-18, 2020 453 (LV) 13% 13% 13% 14% 17% 16% 5%[i] 8%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Feb 12-19, 2020 450 (LV) ± 6.1% 14% 12% 15% 9% 21% 20% 6%[j] 4%
Feb 12, 2020 Patrick withdraws from the race
Falchuk & DiNatale Jan 27-30, 2020 334 (LV) 16% 8% 6% 7% 3% 12% 23% 7%[k]
Jan 13, 2020 Booker withdraws from the race
Dec 3, 2019 Harris withdraws from the race
Nov 24, 2019 Bloomberg announces his candidacy
Nov 14, 2019 Patrick announces his candidacy
Nov 1, 2019 O'Rourke withdraws from the race
WBUR Oct 16–20, 2019 456 ± 4.6% 18% 0% 7% 3% 1% 0% 13% 33% 7%[l] 15%
Suffolk University Sep 3–5, 2019 500 - 26% 1% 5% 3% 0% 1% 8% 24% 6%[m] 25%
Aug 23, 2019 Moulton withdraws from the race
Suffolk University Jun 5–9, 2019 370 ± 5.1% 22% 1% 8% 5% 0% 1% 6% 10% 5%[n] 42%
Apr 25, 2019 Biden announces his candidacy
Apr 22, 2019 Moulton announces his candidacy
Apr 14, 2019 Buttigieg announces his candidacy
Emerson College Apr 4–7, 2019 371 ± 5.0% 23% 2% 11% 7% 2% 8% 26% 14% 8%[o]
Mar 14, 2019 O'Rourke announces his candidacy
Feb 19, 2019 Sanders announces his candidacy
Feb 10, 2019 Klobuchar announces her candidacy
Feb 9, 2019 Warren announces her candidacy
Feb 1, 2019 Booker announces his candidacy
Jan 21, 2019 Harris announces her candidacy
YouGov/UMass Amherst Nov 7–14, 2018 655 19% 3% 6% 3% 10% 6% 14% 11% 1%[p] 27%
Hypothetical polling
With only Biden, Sanders and Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Undecided
Evan Falchuk and Lou DiNatalie/Commonwealth Magazine Oct 23-25, 2019 443 (LV) 35% 13% 41% 11%

Results[edit]

2020 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Joe Biden 473,861 33.41 45
Bernie Sanders 376,990 26.58 30
Elizabeth Warren 303,864 21.43 16
Michael Bloomberg 166,200 11.72
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 38,400 2.71
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) 17,297 1.22
Tulsi Gabbard 10,548 0.74
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 6,923 0.49
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 6,762 0.48
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 2,708 0.19
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 1,257 0.09
John Delaney (withdrawn) 675 0.05
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 617 0.04
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 426 0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 305 0.02
No Preference 5,345 0.38
Blank ballots 4,061 0.29
All Others 1,941 0.14
Total 1,418,180 100% 91

†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

Results by county[edit]

2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary

(results per county)[9]

County Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Michael Bloomberg Pete Buttigieg Amy Klobuchar Tulsi Gabbard Deval Patrick Tom Steyer Andrew Yang Michael Bennet John Delaney Marianne Williamson Cory Booker Julian Castro No Preference Blank ballots All Others Total votes cast
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Barnstable 21,423 38.44 12,106 21.72 9,399 16.86 8,011 14.37 2,177 3.91 1,056 1.89 388 0.70 213 0.38 426 0.76 86 0.15 45 0.08 18 0.03 31 0.06 13 0.02 2 0.00 186 0.33 103 0.18 51 0.09 55,734
Berkshire 10,978 38.35 8,196 28.63 5,549 19.38 2,634 9.20 461 1.61 227 0.79 115 0.40 210 0.73 28 0.10 26 0.09 15 0.05 11 0.04 13 0.05 6 0.02 11 0.04 80 0.28 44 0.15 22 0.08 28,626
Bristol 29,181 36.91 22,885 28.94 10,606 13.41 10,350 13.09 2,196 2.78 818 1.03 635 0.80 547 0.69 488 0.62 120 0.15 88 0.11 46 0.06 44 0.06 37 0.05 25 0.03 504 0.64 307 0.39 189 0.24 79,066
Dukes 1,962 32.63 1,632 27.15 1,287 21.41 718 11.94 192 3.19 99 1.65 36 0.60 19 0.32 30 0.50 8 0.13 5 0.08 0 0.00 3 0.05 2 0.03 1 0.02 7 0.12 6 0.10 5 0.08 6,012
Essex 52,900 33.97 41,877 26.89 28,220 18.12 20,661 13.27 4,761 3.06 2,111 1.36 1,482 0.95 852 0.55 890 0.57 264 0.17 167 0.11 79 0.05 67 0.04 49 0.03 48 0.03 586 0.38 445 0.29 268 0.17 155,727
Franklin 4,804 23.54 8,185 40.11 5,159 25.28 1,274 6.24 305 1.49 159 0.78 161 0.79 84 0.41 66 0.32 42 0.21 8 0.04 47 0.23 10 0.05 2 0.01 1 0.00 44 0.22 44 0.22 13 0.06 20,408
Hampden 23,009 36.60 19,260 30.63 8,599 13.68 7,860 12.50 1,170 1.86 599 0.95 484 0.77 537 0.85 141 0.22 118 0.19 165 0.26 62 0.10 30 0.05 28 0.04 44 0.07 319 0.51 257 0.41 189 0.30 62,871
Hampshire 10,722 24.35 15,318 34.78 12,986 29.49 3,052 6.93 721 1.64 426 0.97 231 0.52 141 0.32 57 0.13 58 0.13 17 0.04 9 0.02 16 0.04 8 0.02 6 0.01 146 0.33 86 0.20 41 0.09 44,041
Middlesex 123,553 30.54 99,704 24.64 109,318 27.02 45,727 11.30 11,302 2.79 5,328 1.32 2,733 0.68 1,374 0.34 1,517 0.37 895 0.22 255 0.06 136 0.03 124 0.03 102 0.03 49 0.01 1,269 0.31 827 0.20 404 0.10 404,617
Nantucket 1,055 40.56 624 23.99 384 14.76 373 14.34 66 2.54 35 1.35 15 0.58 9 0.35 17 0.65 4 0.15 2 0.08 4 0.15 1 0.04 0 0.00 0 0.00 9 0.35 2 0.08 1 0.04 2,601
Norfolk 61,914 37.02 36,074 21.57 34,126 20.40 23,101 13.81 4,791 2.86 2,317 1.39 1,352 0.81 658 0.39 862 0.52 345 0.21 102 0.06 55 0.03 68 0.04 42 0.03 11 0.01 694 0.41 467 0.28 275 0.16 167,254
Plymouth 37,270 38.64 23,254 24.11 14,214 14.74 13,390 13.88 3,352 3.48 1,400 1.45 933 0.97 566 0.59 789 0.82 164 0.17 60 0.06 53 0.05 59 0.06 33 0.03 19 0.02 468 0.49 306 0.32 127 0.13 96,457
Suffolk 47,608 29.79 48,636 30.43 41,885 26.21 13,745 8.60 2,513 1.57 965 0.60 819 0.51 974 0.61 377 0.24 312 0.20 213 0.13 103 0.06 70 0.04 59 0.04 52 0.03 464 0.29 818 0.51 196 0.12 159,809
Worcester 47,482 35.18 39,239 29.08 22,132 16.40 15,304 11.34 4,393 3.26 1,757 1.30 1,164 0.86 739 0.55 1,074 0.80 266 0.20 115 0.09 52 0.04 81 0.06 45 0.03 36 0.03 569 0.42 349 0.26 160 0.12 134,957
Total 473,861 33.41 376,990 26.58 303,864 21.43 166,200 11.72 38,400 2.71 17,297 1.22 10,548 0.74 6,923 0.49 6,762 0.48 2,708 0.19 1,257 0.09 675 0.05 617 0.04 426 0.03 305 0.02 5,345 0.38 4,061 0.29 1,941 0.14 1,418,180

Analysis[edit]

Share of the vote by city and town.

According to exit polls, Biden overwhelmingly won voters over 50, followed by Warren, while Sanders did the same with voters under 40. Voters between the ages of 40 and 49 years old were split between Biden (32%) and Sanders (31%). Biden also won white voters by 8 points over Sanders and African-American voters by 7 points, while Sanders won the Hispanic/Latino vote over Biden by 13 points. Sanders also won the LGBTQ+ voters over Warren and Biden by 12 and 23 points respectively.[11]

Biden carried 7 of the state's 9 congressional districts: the 1st, 3rd, 4th (where Biden got his widest margin of victory), 5th, 6th, 8th, and the 9th. Sanders carried the remaining districts.[12] The one comprised by the Boston-Metro Area showed the best performance for Sanders, and was the only district where Warren finished second.[13] This was a change from the pre-election prediction that Biden would do better in this district and Sanders worse.[14]

Notes[edit]

Polling Notes
  1. ^ Calculated by subtracting polled candidates from 100%
  2. ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  3. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Steyer with 4%; Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 3%
  5. ^ Gabbard with 2%
  6. ^ Steyer with 2.4%; Gabbard with 0.8%; refused with 0.4%
  7. ^ Gabbard with 1%; Steyer with 2%; Would not vote with 2%
  8. ^ Gabbard with 4%; Steyer with 3%
  9. ^ Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%
  10. ^ Gabbard with 3%; Steyer with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ Steyer with 4%; Yang with 3%; Booker with 0%
  12. ^ Gabbard with 2%; Delaney, Steyer and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; others with 2%; would not vote with 2%
  13. ^ Gabbard with 2%; Bennet, Bullock and Yang with 1%; de Blasio, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; refused with 1%
  14. ^ Gabbard, Moulton, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 1%
  15. ^ Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, and Yang with 1%; Gillibrand and Inslee with 0%; others with 5%
  16. ^ Moulton with 1%

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2020-04-04.
  2. ^ "MA District Delegate Allocation Documents.pdf". Google Docs. Retrieved 2020-04-04.
  3. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (2020-02-28). "What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2020-07-08.
  4. ^ Breuninger, Kevin (2020-03-04). "Joe Biden wins Massachusetts primary, NBC News projects, a crushing blow to Elizabeth Warren". CNBC. Retrieved 2020-07-08.
  5. ^ Putnam, Josh. "The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  6. ^ "2020 Democratic National Convention". Massachusetts Democratic Party.
  7. ^ a b "Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. May 5, 2019. Retrieved June 22, 2019.
  8. ^ "Elections: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Candidates". www.sec.state.ma.us. Retrieved 2020-02-24.
  9. ^ a b "2020 President Democratic Primary". Mass.gov. Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Archived from the original on April 9, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Massachusetts Democrat". Retrieved 4 July 2020.
  11. ^ "Exit and entrance polls from the 2020 primaries and caucuses". www.cnn.com. Retrieved 2020-04-19.
  12. ^ "MA District Delegate Allocation Documents.pdf". Google Docs. Retrieved 2020-04-19.
  13. ^ "Massachusetts Democratic Delegation 2020". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2020-04-19.
  14. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (2020-02-28). "What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2020-04-19.

External links[edit]