2020 North Carolina's 11th congressional district election

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2020 North Carolina's 11th congressional district election

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North Carolina's 11th congressional district
 
Nominee Madison Cawthorn Moe Davis
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 245,351 190,609
Percentage 54.5% 42.4%

U.S. Representative before election

Vacant

Elected U.S. Representative

Madison Cawthorn
Republican

The 2020 congressional election in North Carolina's 11th congressional district was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, to determine the next representative to the United States House of Representatives from the 11th district. On December 19, 2019, incumbent representative Mark Meadows announced his retirement and was appointed White House Chief of Staff on March 30, 2020, leaving the seat vacant.[1]

On March 3, 2020, Super Tuesday, the primary for the 11th district was held along with the state of North Carolina at large. Moe Davis was declared the winner of the Democratic primary while no one reached 30% in the Republican primary, triggering a runoff between the top two finishers, Lynda Bennett and Madison Cawthorn. The runoff was held on June 23, 2020, with Cawthorn being declared the winner.[2]

Background and redistricting[edit]

Previously North Carolina's 11th congressional district was considered to be one of the most competitive in the Country. Up until 2013, the district was held by Democrat Heath Shuler, one of the leaders of the Blue Dog Coalition, a prominent conservative Democrat House caucus, and former quarterback for the Tennessee Volunteers. In 2011, the Republican-controlled state legislature, under Senator Phil Berger, the North Carolina congressional districts were redistricted. Under the new map, NC-11 was redistricted to where Asheville, a heavily Democratic area, was split in half in what many consider to be a gerrymander. The North Carolina foothills were also added to the district shifting the district to a Cook PVI of R+14.[3][4] Shuler did not run for reelection in 2012 and Mark Meadows won the election.[5]

In November 2019, new congressional districts were drawn for the state. After review by North Carolina judges in December, a new map was mandated to be used for the 2020 elections, which includes the western part of Rutherford County and all of these counties: Avery, Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Swain, Transylvania, and Yancey.[6][7] At the time of the election, the district still leaned Republican, going to Trump by 17 points and McCrory by 6, but far more competitive than before.

On December 19, 2019, Mark Meadows announced his retirement from the House of Representatives, leaving the seat vacant, with the filing deadline only being two days away.[1] Over the next 48 hours, a dozen Republicans filed to run for the seat, leaving one of the largest non-jungle primaries of the 2020 election cycle.[8]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Lynda Bennett (R)
Executive officials
Federal officials
Organizations

Results[edit]

Both the Republican and Democratic primaries for North Carolina's 11th congressional district took place on March 3, 2020. Because no one reached 30% in the Republican primary, a runoff was triggered. The runoff election was held on June 23, 2020.[2]

Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lynda Bennett 20,606 22.7
Republican Madison Cawthorn 18,481 20.4
Republican Jim Davis 17,465 19.3
Republican Chuck Archerd 8,272 9.1
Republican Wayne King 7,876 8.7
Republican Dan Driscoll 7,803 8.6
Republican Joey Osborne 6,470 7.1
Republican Vance Patterson 2,242 2.5
Republican Matthew Burril 523 0.6
Republican Albert Wiley Jr. 393 0.4
Republican Dillon Gentry 390 0.4
Republican Steve Fekete Jr. 175 0.2
Total votes 90,696 100.0
Republican primary runoff results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Madison Cawthorn 30,636 65.8
Republican Lynda Bennett 15,905 34.2
Total votes 46,541 100.0

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

  • Heath Shuler, former U.S. representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2007–2013)[21]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[22]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Moe Davis 52,983 47.3
Democratic Gina Collias 25,387 22.7
Democratic Phillip Price 12,620 11.3
Democratic Michael O'Shea 12,523 11.2
Democratic Steve Woodsmall 8,439 7.5
Total votes 111,952 100.0

General election[edit]

The general election for North Carolina's 11th congressional district was held on November 3, 2020, between Moe Davis and Madison Cawthorn. Most pundits, as of July, saw the race as a safely Republican seat. However, recent internal polling from the Moe Davis campaign has brought many to believe the race was more competitive than previously thought.[23]

Candidates[edit]

  • Moe Davis, Democrat, retired U.S. Air Force colonel, attorney, former national security specialist for Congress, former law professor at Howard University, retired judge for the U.S. Department of Labor, former Chief Prosecutor of the Guantanamo military commission[18]
  • Madison Cawthorn, Republican, motivational speaker and businessman[10]
  • Tracey DeBruhl, Libertarian, former U.S. Marine and gun rights advocate from Haywood County, North Carolina.[8]
  • Tamara Zwinak, Green, feminist activist.[17]

Endorsements[edit]

Madison Cawthorn (R)
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Madison
Cawthorn (R)
Moe
Davis (D)
Other/
Undecided
EMC Research (D) Archived October 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[b] September 22–24, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 46%
DCCC Targeting & Analytics Department (D)[c] August 5–6, 2020 500 ± 4.4% 46% 41% 13%[d]
EMC Research (D) Archived August 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[b] July 9–12, 2020 402 ± 4.9% 42% 40%

Analysis[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[29] Likely R August 14, 2020
Inside Elections[30] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] Likely R September 3, 2020
Politico[32] Safe R July 6, 2020
Daily Kos[33] Likely R August 31, 2020
RCP[34] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[35] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results[edit]

2020 North Carolina's 11th congressional district election[36]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Madison Cawthorn 245,351 54.50% −4.71%
Democratic Moe Davis 190,609 42.34% +3.59%
Libertarian Tracey DeBruhl 8,682 1.93% −0.11%
Green Tamara Zwinak 5,503 1.22% N/A
Total votes 450,145 100.0%
Republican hold
By county
County[37] Madison Cawthorn
Republican
Moe Davis
Democratic
Tracey DeBruhl
Libertarian
Tamara Zwinak
Green
Margin Total votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Avery 7,010 76.15 1,956 21.25 130 1.41 110 1.19 5,054 54.90 9,206
Buncombe 60,429 37.95 92,938 58.37 3,482 2.19 2,376 1.49 -32,509 -20.42 159,225
Cherokee 12,391 76.20 3,433 21.11 249 1.53 187 1.15 8,958 55.09 16,260
Clay 4,928 72.75 1,665 24.58 118 1.74 63 0.93 3,263 48.17 6,774
Graham 3,522 77.10 951 20.82 68 1.49 27 0.59 2,571 56.28 4,568
Haywood 22,067 60.96 13,026 35.98 710 1.96 398 1.10 9,041 24.97 36,201
Henderson 39,982 58.94 25,958 38.26 1,205 1.78 695 1.02 14,024 20.67 67,840
Jackson 11,102 52.39 9,283 43.80 474 2.24 333 1.57 1,819 8.58 21,192
Macon 13,953 68.01 6,058 29.53 300 1.46 206 1.00 7,895 38.48 20,517
Madison 7,618 58.96 4,883 37.79 274 2.12 146 1.13 2,735 21.17 12,921
McDowell 16,329 71.93 5,708 25.14 417 1.84 246 1.08 10,621 46.79 22,700
Mitchell 6,868 76.91 1,862 20.85 134 1.50 66 0.74 5,006 56.06 8,930
Polk 7,514 61.76 4,368 35.90 169 1.39 115 0.95 3,146 25.86 12,166
Rutherford (part) 9,155 68.98 3,758 28.31 214 1.61 145 1.09 5,397 40.66 13,272
Swain 3,946 56.90 2,717 39.18 182 2.62 90 1.30 1,229 17.72 6,935
Transylvania 11,321 56.13 8,248 40.89 390 1.93 211 1.05 3,073 15.23 20,170
Yancey 7,216 64.04 3,797 33.70 166 1.47 89 0.79 3,419 30.34 11,268
Totals 245,351 54.50 190,609 42.34 8,682 1.93 5,503 1.22 54,742 12.16 450,145

Controversies[edit]

Ads in the Republican primary falsely portrayed an audio clip of Lynda Bennett to suggest she was a Never-Trumper, when the full clip showed she was mocking the movement.[38] The Protect Freedom PAC continued to spend $500,000 on ads that largely repeated what Bennett said was a lie and which the PAC admitted they knew was false.[38]

On October 3, 2020, Madison Cawthorn commented "Chill the f*@# out" comment to a person with disabilities who contacted him through social media. John Hart, Cawthorn's campaign spokesman, said Cawthorn is "passionately opposed to identity politics in all its forms whether it seeks to categorize people by race, gender, disability, etc. He understands there is a diversity of views in the disability community, and many other communities, and he rejects the notion we have to conform to a particular perspective. He isn't seeking to deliver a message as much as he wants to be an example of how a person can endure a tremendous tragedy and loss and find renewed meaning and purpose."[39]

On August 26, 2020, Cawthorn travelled to the border to defend construction of the wall. “Sure, there are children being human-trafficked across our border north into our country for sex slavery and many things that are unspeakable and terrible to think of, but what's really going on is we are having a large group of cartels coming into our country, kidnapping our American children and then taking them to sell them on a slave market, on the sex slave market. Tens of thousands of our children are going missing every year and it's because of cartels like MS-13 coming into our country and doing harm.” Cawthorn did not provide the source of his information or respond to questions about why he went to the border wall some 1,500 miles from his district, who paid his expenses, or how he knew the organizers.[40] Cawthorn states "North Carolina, as a whole, is ranked sixth in kidnappings nationwide."[41] The 2018 Amber Alert Report for the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children ranks North Carolina sixth (or 4% of total = 161) with seven amber alerts.[42] In 2018, the Haywood County Sheriff's Office in North Carolina canceled an AMBER Alert for a missing one-year-old boy Thursday night just over an hour after the alert was issued.[43] North Carolina has a total of 50 Amber Alerts from 2013 through 2018.

On August 10, 2020, an article was released by left-wing magazine Jezebel presenting Cawthorn's past described by the article as disturbing. The article mainly discussed how Cawthorn visited the Kehlsteinhaus (Eagle's Nest) in Bavaria, Germany, and posted photos of his visit on Instagram. Many saw these posts as alarming because of his descriptions of the location as being on his "bucket list." Critics of Cawthorn insist the images were in bad faith, citing the facial expressions and gestures of Cawthorn and his friend depicted in the images.[44][45] In addition, the article indicates Cawthorn was rejected by the United States Naval Academy before the accident. Cawthorn stated throughout the campaign his reasoning behind him not going to the Naval Academy was the April 2014 car accident. Details of Cawthorn's business, SPQR Holdings LLC, were brought up as well. The business was created in August 2019, and has since only purchased a six-acre property in Georgia. The article does not mention any sold properties. Many Cawthorn critics have cited how Cawthorn describes himself as a successful businessman, despite supposedly having little business experience.[44][45]

On August 14, 2020, Cawthorn was accused of sexually harassing via an Instagram post. The accuser was Henderson County resident Katrina Krulikas who stated in the post that in 2014, Cawthorn attempted to kiss her and make sexual gestures towards her without her consent.[46] Over the next few days two more accusers came forward. One accuser named Francesca McDaniel claimed Cawthorn forcibly kissed her and grabbed her thigh on the way to a party. When trying to leave, Cawthorn locked the doors and forced her to come to the party even after the incident. A third anonymous woman claims that while Cawthorn attended Patrick Henry College, during a community chapel session, Cawthorn reached under her skirt and grabbed her thigh.[47]

On March 17, 2020, Cawthorn's financial disclosure report does not include 2018, 2019, and 2020 earned income, position, agreements, and compensation in excess of $5,000 paid by one source. The completed form is digitally signed and includes a checked box that statements made "are true, complete, and correct to the best of my knowledge and belief."[48] On October 5, 2020, Cawthorn is quoted "I hold my own company. I've been an investor, a public speaker, so I feel like that's pretty good diverse amount of work experience."[49] Moe Davis raised the issue to Madison Cawthorn that his company, position, and earned income is not on his financial disclosure form in two of the three debates.

On November 17, 2019, Moe Davis tweeted out a joke about a recent hospital visit by Donald Trump stating, "Many people are saying that @realDonaldTrump was being treated at Walter Reed for an acute case of chapped ass caused by the intense and excessive amount of kissing it's gotten from @RepMarkMeadows. Time to boot Gerrymandered Meadows and make #NC11 #MountainStrong!" This comment drew criticism from opponents who called it immature for a congressional candidate to make.[50]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Davis campaign.
  3. ^ Poll conducted by the DCCC.
  4. ^ "Other candidates" with 6% and Undecided with 7%

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c Lesniewski, Niels; McPherson, Lindsey (March 30, 2020). "Rep. Mark Meadows resigns to become White House chief of staff". Roll Call. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  2. ^ a b Vaillancourt, Cory (June 24, 2020). "Republicans reject Trump-endorsed candidate in NC11 runoff". Smoky Mountain News. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  3. ^ "PVI measures how much more Democratic or Republican a district performs compared to the national average". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  4. ^ Timm, Jane (September 9, 2017). "They're Still Drawing Crazy-Looking Districts. Can't It Be Stopped?". NBC News.
  5. ^ "NC State Board of Elections". clarityelections.com.
  6. ^ "NC House Bill H1029 - Ratified" (PDF). NC Legislature. November 15, 2019.
  7. ^ "HB 1029, 3rd Edition". ncleg.gov.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i Mundhenk, Andrew (December 20, 2019). "Republicans rush to file for Meadows' seat; 19 candidates total headed to primaries". BlueRidgeNow.
  9. ^ Perrotti, Kyle (December 19, 2019). "Meadows to retire; Haywood Republican to run for 11th". The Mountaineer.
  10. ^ a b "Cawthorn to run for Meadows' seat, wants to see 'new generation' of leadership'". Blue Ridge Times-News Online. January 7, 2020. Retrieved January 15, 2020.
  11. ^ Wadington, Katie (December 19, 2019). "Republican state Sen. Jim Davis to run for Meadows' 11th District seat". Citizen Times.
  12. ^ Singer, Jeff (January 6, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/6". The Daily Kos. Retrieved January 6, 2020.
  13. ^ a b Robertson, Gary D. (December 20, 2019). "N Carolina candidates rush for legislature, Meadows' seat". Raleigh News & Observer. Archived from the original on December 25, 2019. Retrieved December 20, 2019.
  14. ^ a b c d e "ENDORSEMENTS – Lynda for Congress". Archived from the original on August 21, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.[self-published source]
  15. ^ "Lynda Bennett - Susan B. Anthony List". Archived from the original on June 15, 2020. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
  16. ^ a b "NC SBE Contest Results". er.ncsbe.gov. North Carolina Board of Elections. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
  17. ^ a b Moss, Bill (December 17, 2019). "Attorney and businesswoman files for Congress". Hendersonville Lightning. Retrieved December 17, 2019.
  18. ^ a b Davis, Col Morris (November 19, 2019). ".@RepMarkMeadows chose not to serve in the military as I did for 25 years, so perhaps that explains why he doesn't understand where legal fits in a chain of command. I'll bring military experience to the Hill when I take his place and I won't be an embarrassment to #NC11". @ColMorrisDavis. Retrieved November 20, 2019.
  19. ^ "Second Dem hopes to oppose Meadows". Smoky Mountain News. October 30, 2019. Retrieved November 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "Steve Woodsmall announces bid for Rep. Mark Meadows' seat". The Times-News. March 22, 2019. Retrieved April 11, 2019.
  21. ^ Thompson, David (December 20, 2019). "Former Congressman Heath Shuler eyeing return to politics". Asheville Citizen Times. Retrieved December 21, 2019.
  22. ^ "NC SBE Contest Results". North Carolina Board of Elections. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  23. ^ Panetta, Grace (August 12, 2020). "New polling shows Mark Meadows' former congressional seat is in play for Democrats after a controversial 25-year-old conservative upset Trump's pick". Business Insider. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  24. ^ "Equality North Carolina Endorsed Candidates 2020". EqualityNC. Equality North Carolina.
  25. ^ "2020 Endorsements". plannedparenthoodaction.org. Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Archived from the original on November 15, 2019. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  26. ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club. March 19, 2021.
  27. ^ "Candidates". VoteVets.org.
  28. ^ "NC Values Coalition Endorses Madison Cawthorn". NCValues.org. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 House Race ratings". Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  31. ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on August 22, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  32. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  33. ^ "As the GOP's downballot woes continue, all our race ratings changes once again favor Democrats". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved August 31, 2020.
  34. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  35. ^ "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020. Archived from the original on June 21, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  36. ^ "State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  37. ^ "11/03/2020 Official Local Election Results - US House of Representatives District 11". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved May 13, 2022.
  38. ^ a b "The making of Madison Cawthorn: How falsehoods helped propel the career of a new pro-Trump star of the far right". Washington Post. Retrieved February 28, 2021.
  39. ^ Boyle, John. "Boyle column: Cawthorn's 'Chill the f*@# out' comment is mind-boggling". The Asheville Citizen Times. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  40. ^ Lewis, Sally Kestin, Tom Fiedler and Peter H. "Madison Cawthorn mingles with fringe, disavows QAnon but repeats debunked sex slave theory". The Asheville Citizen Times. Retrieved October 8, 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  41. ^ "Key Policies | Madison Cawthorn". Archived from the original on October 15, 2020. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  42. ^ "AMBER Alerts". www.missingkids.org. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  43. ^ "Amber Alert issued for abducted 1 year-old boy in Western North Carolina". WJHL | Tri-Cities News & Weather. June 29, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  44. ^ a b Wang, Esther (August 10, 2020). "My Dark Journey Into the Soul of a Model Young Republican Candidate". Jezebel. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  45. ^ a b Fiedler, Tom (August 12, 2020). "Madison Cawthorn's claim about Naval Academy creates false impression". Jezebel. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  46. ^ Aldona, Katrina (August 13, 2020). "katrinaaldona post August 13th, 2020". katrinaaldona. Archived from the original on December 26, 2021. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  47. ^ Prude, Harvey (August 16, 2020). "Rising Republican star faces accusations from women". World Magazine. Archived from the original on August 25, 2020. Retrieved August 16, 2020.
  48. ^ "Financial Disclosure Report - David Madison Cawthorn" (PDF). Clerk of the House of Representatives. 2020. Filing ID #10033653.
  49. ^ Moon, Paul. "'I figured he would get it eventually': Cawthorn says Trump's diagnosis doesn't change his virus approach". The Asheville Citizen Times. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  50. ^ Sinclair, Harriet (November 18, 2019). "Col. Morris Davis Jokes Trump Visited Hospital for Acute Case of Chapping Caused by Mark Meadows Sucking Up". Newsweek. Retrieved August 13, 2020.

External links[edit]