2020 Polish presidential election

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2020 Polish presidential election

← 2015 May 2020

Incumbent President

Andrzej Duda
Independent



Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Poland in 2020. Incumbent president Andrzej Duda is eligible for reelection.

Electoral system[edit]

The President of Poland is directly elected using the two-round system. They are limited to two five-year terms. The term of Andrzej Duda will expire on 6 August 2020, and the president-elect will take oath of office on that day, before the National Assembly (a joint session of the Sejm and Senat).

Candidate selection[edit]

Law and Justice / United Right[edit]

Incumbent President Andrzej Duda is eligible to run for a second term. His approval ratings are high – In September 2017, his approval rating stood at 71% and in February 2018, at 72%. A record surpassed only by Aleksander Kwaśniewski from 1995 to 2005, whose approval ratings surpassed 75%.[1][2] On October 24, 2019 in an open letter to the elected members of the Sejm and Senate, PiS chairman Jarosław Kaczyński announced that the party will strongly support Andrzej Duda in next year's Presidential election[3].

Nominee:

Law and Justice
Law and Justice[nb 1]
Andrzej Duda
Prezydent Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej Andrzej Duda (cropped).jpg
President of Poland
(2015–)


Civic Platform / Civic Coalition[edit]

Donald Tusk was widely expected to comeback in Polish politics to run for President, all the more so given that his European office expired at the end of 2019.[4][5] However, in November 2019, he announced he would not run for the Polish Presidency, citing that he has “a bag of difficult, unpopular decisions since prime minister” that would burden his candidacy. He is said to have been advised against a run by private opinion polls. He decided to run instead for the leadership of the European People's Party.[6] As a result, party leader Grzegorz Schetyna decided to hold a convention in order to nominate a candidate for president. The primary was won by Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. [7][8]

Nominee:

Civic Platform
Civic Platform
Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska
Kidawa-Błońska (cropped).jpg
Marshal of the Sejm
(2015)


Declared, but lost at the primary convention:

Declined:

Polish People's Party / Polish Coalition[edit]

In December 2019, PSL chairman Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that he will be launching a campaign for president.[13]

Polish People's Party
Polish People's Party
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz Sejm 2016.JPG
Minister of Family, Labour, and Social Policy
(2011-2015)

Confederation Liberty and Independence[edit]

The party held an open primary, a first in Polish politics. The 2019–20 Confederation presidential primary is modeled on the US style, with various rounds. Krzysztof Bosak was nominated during the final round of voting held at the convention in Warsaw on January 18.

Nominee:

Confederation
Confederation
Krzysztof Bosak
JKRUK 20190927 KRZYSZTOF BOSAK KIELCE IMGP2283.jpg
Member of the Sejm
(2005-2007, 2019-)

Declared, but lost in the primary election: [14]:

The Left[edit]

At the beginning of January 2020, Włodzimierz Czarzasty said in Polsat News that The Left will nominate Robert Biedroń.[15]

The Left
The Left
Robert Biedroń
JKRUK 20190219 ROBERT BIEDROŃ KIELCE DSCN2269 (cropped).jpg
Member of European Parliament
(2019-)

Other[edit]

These are candidates who are not endorsed by any party currently represented in the Sejm.

Declared

Potential

Opinion polls[edit]

First round[edit]

Poll source Date(s) administered Don't know/
Abstain
Others
Duda
IN
Kidawa-Błońska
PO
Biedroń
LEFT
Zandberg
LEFT
Kosiniak-Kamysz
PSL
Bosak
KWiN
Hołownia
IN
Estymator 9-10 January - - 47,7% 22,7% 8.8% - 9% 4,3% 6.9%
Social Changes 3-7 January 2020 - - 42% 26% - 6% 9% 4% 13%
Social Changes 27-31 December 2019 - - 43% 26% - 5% 6% 4% 16%
Estymator 19–20 December 2019 - - 46.6% 22.4% - 8.3% 9.2% 4.6% 7.9%
IBSP 17–20 December 2019 - 0.2% 43.9% 26.3% - 7.2% 7.3% 5.4% 9.7%


Hypothetical opinion polls[edit]

Poll source Date(s) administered Don't know/
Abstain
Others
Duda
IN
Other
PiS
Tusk
PO
Other
PO
Czarzasty
SLD
Kukiz
K'15
Petru
.N
Lubnauer
.N
Kosiniak-Kamysz
PSL
Biedroń
Wiosna
Zandberg
Razem
Korwin-Mikke
Konf.
Rzepliński
IN
Nowacka
IN
Social Changes 19–24 July 2019 - 1.9%[a] 45% - 21% 6.9%[b] - 6.7% - - 4.3% 8.2% - 3.4% - 2.7%
Kantar Public 16–19 May 2019 2% - 41% - 27% - - 7% - - 6% 11% 1% 5% - -
Kantar Public 8–10 May 2019 8% - 41% - 28% - - 7% - - 5% 6% 1% 4% - -
IBSP 7–9 May 2019 - 0.4% 43.7% - 34.7% - 1.3% 5.2% - - 6.3% 6.9% - 1.4% - -
Pollster 4–6 April 2019 - - 38% - 27% - 1% 6% - 0% 5% 16% 2% 5% - -
Ariadna 22–26 February 2019 24% - 34% - 20% - - 6% - - 1% 12% 1% - - 2%
IBSP 31 January-6 February 2019 3.0% - 38.8% - 37.8% - 0.7% 2.2% - - 6.1% 8.9% - 2.4% - -
IBRiS 13 November 2018 9% - 37% - 36% - - 4% - - 3% 10% - 1% - -
Ariadna 17–21 August 2018 14% 34% 7%[c] 21% - - 6% - - 1% 14% 1% 2% - -
Pollster 11–12 July 2018 - 19% 32% - 21% - - 7% - - - 17% - 4% - -
Millward Brown 25–26 April 2018 6% 4% 44% - 24% - - 4% - - 2% 15% 1% - - -
Pollster 5 April 2018 - 4%[d] 36% - 26% - - 7% - 3% 2% 19% - 3% - -
IBRiS 4 April 2018 9.3% - 33.5% - 33.0% - - 6.8% - - 3.0% 11.4% 1.3% 1.7% - -
Pollster 3–5 January 2018 - - 39% - 21% - 1% 9% - 2% 3% 15% 3% 4% - 3%
Ariadna 29 September-2 October 2017 14.3% - 42.7% - 17.1% - 0.4% 9.6% - - 0.9% 12.7% 1.0% - - 1.3%
Pollster 16–17 August 2017 - - 39% 6% [e] 31% 1% [f] 3% 7% 2% - 3% - 3% 5% - -
Ariadna 28–31 July 2017 14% - 37% - 23% - 0% 7% - - 2% 14% 2% - - 1%
IBRiS 26–27 July 2017 9.9% 1.2%[g] 36.2% - 20.5% - - 7.7% 1.5% - 4.1% 16.3% - 2.6% - -
Ariadna 23–26 June 2017 14% - 35% - 23% - 2% 11% - - 4% 9% 1% - - 1%
Ariadna 9–12 June 2017 14% - 32% - 27% - 1% 9% - - 1% 12% 1% - - 3%
21% - 34% - - 8% 1% 8% - - 4% 17% 2% - - 5%
Ariadna 12–16 May 2017 15.4% - 31.9% - 26.9% - - 8% - - - 17.8% - - - -
Kantar Public 26–27 April 2017 10% 1% 38% - 31% - - 12% - - - 8% - - - -
Dobra Opinia 30 March-3 April 2017 - - 37.4% - 25.8% - - 9.5% 7.9% - 4.8% 11.1% - 3.5% - -
Pollster 7–8 March 2017 - 8% 45% - 25% 4%[h] 5% 2% - - 8% - 3% - -
Pollster 2–3 January 2017 - 17.18% 41.23% 2.19%[i] 11.55% 4.37%[j] - 7.36% 7.89% - - 2.62% 0.44% 3.93% 1.27% -
IPSOS 19–21 December 2016 16% 1% 36% 1% 18% 1%[k] 5% 8% - - 8% 1% - - -
Pollster 5–8 February 2016 - 9% 38% - 16%[l] - 14% 17% - 3% - - - - -
Presidential election 10 May 2015 - 7.3% 34.8% - - 33.8%[m] - 20.8% - - - - - 3.3% - -

Second round[edit]

Duda v. Kidawa-Błońska[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided/would not vote
Duda
IN
Kidawa-Błońska
PO
IBSP 14-16 January 2020 50.09% 49.91% -
Pollster 20-22 December 2019 54.14% 45.86% -
IBSP 17-20 December 2019 50.67% 49.33% -

Duda v. Tusk[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided/would not vote
Duda
PiS
Tusk
PO
Kantar Public 16–19 May 2019 55% 44% 1%
Kantar Public 8–10 May 2019 56% 40% 4%
IBSP 7–9 May 2019 48.4% 47.3% 4.3%
Ariadna 22–26 February 2019 46% 36% 18%
IBSP 31 January-6 February 2019 45.3% 52.9% 1.8%
Millward Brown 19–20 November 2018 50% 45% 5%
IBRiS 13 November 2018 46% 44% 10%
Pollster 9–10 August 2018 51% 49% -
IBRiS 26–27 July 2018 50% 45% 5%
Pollster 13–14 June 2018 52.5% 47.5% -
Millward Brown 25–26 April 2018 53% 44% 3%
Kantar Public 20–21 November 2017 48% 27% 25%
IBRiS 14–15 October 2017 49.4% 37.8% 12.8%
Ariadna 29 September-2 October 2017 47.5% 36.0% 16.5%
Pollster 20–21 September 2017 47% 53% -
Ariadna 28–31 July 2017 45% 41% 14%
Millward Brown 11–12 July 2017 52% 44% 4%
Pollster 30 June-4 July 2017 52% 48% -
Ariadna 23–26 June 2017 45% 38% 17%
IPSOS 19–21 June 2017 49.9% 37.2% 13%
Ariadna 12–16 May 2017 33% 33.8% 33.2%
Ariadna 12–16 May 2017 30.8% 27.4% 41.8%[n]
Millward Brown 24–25 April 2017 45% 50% 5%
Pollster 20–21 April 2017 39% 49% 12%
IPSOS 17–19 March 2017 43.7% 43.9% 12.4%
Millward Brown 5 October 2016 49% 45% 6%
Millward Brown 20–22 May 2016 47% 41% 12%

Duda v. Biedroń[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided/would not vote
Duda
PiS
Biedroń
Wiosna
IBRiS 13 November 2018 49% 41% 10%
Millward Brown 25–26 April 2018 58% 40% 2%
IBRiS 14–15 October 2017 51.4% 35.1% 13.5%
Ariadna 28–31 July 2017 51% 32% 17%
Ariadna 12–16 May 2017 47% 31% 22%
Ariadna 12–16 May 2017 28.3% 28.1% 43.6%[o]
IPSOS 17–19 March 2017 46.9% 34.6% 18.4%
Millward Brown 20–22 May 2016 49% 32% 19%

Duda v. Kukiz[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided/would not vote
Duda
PiS
Kukiz
K'15
Ariadna 12–16 May 2017 26.4% 16.3% 57.3%[p]
IPSOS 17–19 March 2017 44.9% 26.7% 28.4%
Millward Brown 20–22 May 2016 44% 26% 30%

Duda v. Petru[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided/would not vote
Duda
PiS
Petru
.N
Millward Brown 20–22 May 2016 47% 41% 12%

Duda v. Schetyna[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided/would not vote
Duda
PiS
Schetyna
PO
Millward Brown 20–22 May 2016 48% 33% 19%

Duda v. Trzaskowski[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided/would not vote
Duda
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
IBSP 31 January-6 February 2019 47.9% 49.3% 2.8%

Duda v. Nowacka[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided/would not vote
Duda
PiS
Nowacka
TR
Millward Brown 20–22 May 2016 50% 30% 20%

Kaczyński v. Tusk[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided/would not vote
Kaczyński
PiS
Tusk
PO
Pollster 9–10 August 2018 35% 65% -
IBRiS 26–27 July 2018 41% 50% 9%

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ The President of Poland traditionally resigns from party membership after taking office. Duda is officially an independent but his campaign is being endorsed and funded by Law and Justice.
  1. ^ Includes: 1.9% Grzegorz Braun.
  2. ^ Includes: 5.2% Rafał Trzaskowski, 1.7% Bartosz Arłukowicz.
  3. ^ Includes: 5% Mateusz Morawiecki, 1% Jarosław Kaczyński, 1% Zbigniew Ziobro.
  4. ^ Includes: 4% Monika Jaruzelska.
  5. ^ Includes: 6% Beata Szydło
  6. ^ Includes: 1% Grzegorz Schetyna
  7. ^ Includes: 1.2% Marian Kowalski.
  8. ^ Includes: 4% Bronisław Komorowski
  9. ^ Includes: 1.60% Beata Szydło 0.59% Jarosław Kaczyński
  10. ^ Includes: 3.96% Bronisław Komorowski 0.24% Grzegorz Schetyna 0.17% Ewa Kopacz
  11. ^ Includes: 1% Grzegorz Schetyna
  12. ^ Includes: 3% Grzegorz Schetyna
  13. ^ Bronisław Komorowski
  14. ^ 17.3% undecided, 24.5% would not vote
  15. ^ 13.8% undecided, 29.8% would not vote
  16. ^ 16.7% undecided, 40.6% would not vote

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Sondaż CBOS: Wielki wzrost poparcia dla prezydenta Dudy". dorzeczy.pl. Retrieved 2 March 2018.
  2. ^ "Prezydent Duda z największym poparciem". fakt.pl. Retrieved 2 March 2018.
  3. ^ "Kaczyński: Zwycięstwo w wyborach trzeba przypieczętować reelekcją Andrzeja Dudy" [Kaczyński: Victory in the elections must be sealed with the re-election of Andrzej Duda]. wiadomosci.wp.pl. 24 October 2019. Retrieved 29 October 2019.
  4. ^ "Wybory prezydenckie w 2020 r. Czy Donald Tusk ma szansę wygrać?" [Will Donald Tusk have a chance to win the 2020 presidential elections?]. Parlamentarny.pl. 29 December 2015. Retrieved 28 March 2017.
  5. ^ "Schetyna: Marzy mi się, żeby Donald Tusk był kandydatem na prezydenta koalicji rządzącej" ["Schetyna: I dream of Donald Tusk being the ruling coalition's presidential candidate"]. wprost.pl. 2017-04-26. Retrieved 2017-10-07.
  6. ^ Baume, Maïa de La (2019-11-20). "Donald Tusk elected president of European People's Party". POLITICO. Retrieved 2019-11-28.
  7. ^ "Civic Platform's Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska confirms her 2020 presidential bid". TVN24.pl. Retrieved 2019-11-28.
  8. ^ a b "Znamy kandydata PO na prezydenta. Do pojedynku z Andrzejem Dudą stanie Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska". gazetapl (in Polish). Retrieved 2019-12-14.
  9. ^ "Mayor of Poznań Jacek Jaśkowiak to run in Civic Coalition presidential preliminaries". TVN24.pl. Retrieved 2019-11-28.
  10. ^ "Mayor of Warsaw says he's not going to run for president". TVN24.pl. Retrieved 2019-12-02.
  11. ^ "Prawybory prezydenckie w PO. Radosław Sikorski nie wystartuje" ["Presidential primaries in PO. Radosław Sikorski is not going to run"]. PolskieRadio24.pl. Retrieved 2019-11-28.
  12. ^ "Bartosz Arłukowicz nie wystartuje w prawyborach" ["Bartosz Arłukowicz is not going to run in primaries"]. fakty.interia.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 2019-11-28.
  13. ^ Mieśnik, Magda (2019-12-14). "Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz walczy o urząd prezydenta. Ruszył z prekampanią". wiadomosci.wp.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 2019-12-15.
  14. ^ "Braun, Bosak, Korwin-Mikke. Konfederacja ogłosiła kandydatów na kandydatów na prezydenta" [Braun, Bosak, Korwin-Mikke. Confederation announced presidential primary candidates.]. rp.pl. Retrieved 30 October 2019.
  15. ^ "Czarzasty: Zgłoszę Biedronia na kandydata w wyborach prezydenckich". Newsweek.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 2020-01-05.
  16. ^ "To już pewne. Szymon Hołownia będzie kandydował na prezydenta. "Może sporo namieszać"". gazetapl (in Polish). Retrieved 2019-12-14.
  17. ^ https://dorzeczy.pl/kraj/126524/liroy-na-prezydenta-zaskakujaca-deklaracja-bylego-posla.html
  18. ^ https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/301169891-Jan-Zbigniew-Potocki-Prezydent-samozwaniec-chce-zastapic-Andrzeja-Dude.html
  19. ^ https://lublin.onet.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020-miroslaw-piotrowski-moze-wystartowac-w-wyborach/5hlmey1
  20. ^ Wschodni, Dziennik. "Nazywa się Duda i chce zostać prezydentem Polski. Ale to nie Andrzej tylko Jolanta, kandydatka z Chełma". Dziennik Wschodni (in Polish). Retrieved 2019-12-28.
  21. ^ https://dorzeczy.pl/kraj/126309/max-kolonko-wystartuje-w-wyborach-prezydenckich-powolalem-sztab.html