2020 United States Senate election in Colorado

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2020 United States Senate election in Colorado

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  Cory Gardner official Senate portrait (cropped).jpeg John Hickenlooper June 2019.jpg
Nominee Cory Gardner John Hickenlooper
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Cory Gardner
Republican



The 2020 United States Senate Election in Colorado will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Under Colorado law, the filing deadline for U.S. Senate candidates was March 17, 2020, the third Tuesday in March of the election year; the primary election occurred on June 30.[1][2] Incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner is running for reelection to a second term, and will face Democratic former Governor John Hickenlooper in the general election.[3] Gardner was unopposed in the Republican primary, and Hickenlooper defeated former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary. Gardner is one of two Republican U.S. Senators facing reelection in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump lost in 2016, the other being Susan Collins from Maine.[4]

Background[edit]

Cory Gardner was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, narrowly defeating incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall in a very successful election year for Republicans. Gardner is widely considered vulnerable in this election cycle due to Colorado's Democratic trend in recent cycles and his support for President Donald Trump.[5] The seat is expected to be highly competitive and is widely considered the most likely Republican-held seat to flip Democratic. The Democratic nominee, former governor John Hickenlooper, has a double-digit lead over Gardner in the polls.[6]

Various minor scandals in the days leading up to the June 30 Democratic primary sparked speculation that Romanoff might win, but Hickenlooper had an advantage in name recognition, and harsh negative attacks by Romanoff reportedly led many state Democrats and voters to sour on him.[7]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

  • Margot Dupre, estate agent[9][10]
  • Gail Prentice, veteran and business owner[11][12]

Endorsements[edit]

Cory Gardner (R)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
Organizations
Other Individuals

Results[edit]

Republican primary results [20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Cory Gardner (incumbent) 554,806 100.0%
Total votes 554,806 100.0%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Debates[edit]

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
John
Hickenlooper
Andrew
Romanoff
9NEWS June 9, 2020 [54] Present Present
CBS4
PBS 12
Colorado Sun
June 10, 2020 [55][56] Present Present
The Denver Post June 16, 2020 [57] Present Present

Endorsements[edit]

John Hickenlooper
U.S. Presidents
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Newspapers
Unions
Organizations
Andrew Romanoff
State officials
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Jena
Griswold
John
Hickenlooper
Mike
Johnston
Andrew
Romanoff
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA June 19–24, 2020 575 (LV) ± 6.0% 58% 28% 15%[d]
Myers Research and Strategic Services[A] June 16–17, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 39%
Unspecified polling firm[A] October 2019 – (LV)[e] 68% 19%
September 3, 2019 Johnston withdraws from the race
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 60%[f] 3% 9% 27%[g]
[h] 66% 17% 17%[i]
August 21, 2019 Hickenlooper announces his candidacy
August 9, 2019 Griswold announces that she will not run
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group July 25–28, 2019 600 (LV) 6% 61% 10% 8% 15%[j]
Public Policy Polling (D) July 12–14, 2019 561 (LV) 4% 44% 3% 12% 38%[k]
Hypothetical polling
with Dan Baer and John Hickenlooper
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Baer
John
Hickenlooper
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 11% 72% 17%
with John Hickenlooper and Mike Johnston
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
John
Hickenlooper
Mike
Johnston
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 69% 14% 18%
with John Hickenlooper and Alice Madden
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
John
Hickenlooper
Alice
Madden
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 69% 14% 17%
with John Hickenlooper and Angela Williams
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
John
Hickenlooper
Angela
Williams
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] August 28–29, 2019 509 (LV) 70% 11% 18%

Caucus[edit]

On March 7, 2020, the Colorado Democratic Party held a non-binding Senate primary preference poll at its caucus sites. Attendees could choose delegates to county and then state conventions. If a candidate received at least 30% of the delegates at the state convention they would be placed on the ballot. Some candidates were not listed because they instead chose to attempt to collect signatures to reach the ballot. Candidates needed 1,500 signatures from each congressional district. Hickenlooper and Underwood chose to do both. Romanoff collected the needed signatures as of March 8, 2020.[91][92]

Caucus results[edit]

Romanoff was the only candidate to get more than 30% in the initial precinct caucuses. Hickenlooper withdrew from the assembly process soon afterward, choosing to qualify for the ballot exclusively by petition. Ballot access for assembly candidates will be decided at the state assembly. Caucus winners do not always receive the party's nomination; Romanoff won them in the 2010 Democratic primary for Colorado's Senate race, but Michael Bennet won the party's nomination that year.[93]

The aggregate results of the various precinct caucuses on March 7, 2020, were:[94]

Candidate Total Raw Votes Percentage of Vote Won (%)
Andrew Romanoff 8,629 54.98
John Hickenlooper 4,761 30.34
Trish Zornio 976 6.21
Stephany Rose Spaulding 771 4.91
Uncommitted 520 3.31
Erik Underwood 35 0.22

Results[edit]

Results by county:
Democratic primary results[95]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Hickenlooper 585,826 58.65%
Democratic Andrew Romanoff 412,955 41.35%
Total votes 998,781 100.0%

Other candidates[edit]

Libertarian primary[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Results[edit]

Libertarian primary results [98]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Raymon Doane 3,477 62.41%
Libertarian Gaylon Kent 2,094 37.59%
Total votes 5,571 100.0%

Unity Party[edit]

Nominee[edit]

  • Stephan "Chairman Seku" Evans, former candidate for Mayor of Denver[99]

Eliminated at Unity Party convention[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Write-in candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

General election[edit]

Debate[edit]

Host Date & Time Link(s) Participants
John

Hickenlooper

Cory Cardner
Colorado State University October 13, 2020
6:00pm MDT
[108] Present Present

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[109] Lean D (flip) September 23, 2020
Inside Elections[110] Lean D (flip) October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[111] Likely D (flip) October 1, 2020
Daily Kos[112] Lean D (flip) August 31, 2020
Politico[113] Lean D (flip) September 9, 2020
RCP[114] Lean D (flip) September 17, 2020
Niskanen[115] Safe D (flip) September 15, 2020
DDHQ[116] Likely D (flip) September 16, 2020
538[117] Lean D (flip) September 18, 2020

Endorsements[edit]

Cory Gardner (R)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
Organizations
Other Individuals
Newspapers
John Hickenlooper (D)
U.S. Presidents
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Newspapers
Unions
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Graphical Summary[edit]

Poll Results[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Cory
Gardner (R)
John
Hickenlooper (D)
Other /
Undecided
RBI Strategies & Research October 12–16, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.4% 39% 53% 7%[l]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ October 9–15, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 51% 7%[m]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 11–14, 2020 1,013 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 53% 3%[n]
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson October 8–13, 2020 519 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 51% 7%[o]
Morning Consult October 2–11, 2020 837 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 50%
YouGov/University of Colorado October 5–9, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.64% 40% 48% 12%[p]
SurveyUSA October 1–6, 2020 1,021 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 48% 14%[q]
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 613 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 42%[r] 49%
Morning Consult September 8–17, 2020 599 (LV)[s] ± (2% – 4%) 44% 46%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[C] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 51% 4%[t]
Global Strategy Group (D)[D] August 28 – September 1, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 52% 5%
Morning Consult August 21–30, 2020 638 (LV) ± 4.0% 39%[u] 48% 13%
Morning Consult August 16–25, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 48%
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] August 18–19, 2020 731 (V) ± 3.2% 42% 51% 7%[v]
Morning Consult August 6–15, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 49%
Morning Consult July 27 – August 5, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 50%
Morning Consult July 17–26, 2020 616 (LV) ± 4.0% 42%[w] 48% 11%[x]
Morning Consult July 13–22, 2020 ~600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 50%
Public Policy Polling[F] June 29–30, 2020 840 (V) ± 3.4% 40% 51% 9%[y]
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson May 1–3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 54% 10%[z]
Montana State University Bozeman April 10–19, 2020 379 (LV) ± 4.4% 31% 48% 21%[aa]
Keating Research October 10–14, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 53% 5%
Emerson College August 16–19, 2019 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 53% 8%
Global Strategy Group (D)[G] August 13–14, 2019 617 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 49% 13%
Public Policy Polling[B] August 8–11, 2019 739 (V) ± 3.6% 38% 51% 12%
Hypothetical polling
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Cory
Gardner (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[G] August 13–14, 2019 617 (LV) ± 3.9% 38% 48% 14%
Global Strategy Group January 31 – February 4, 2019 818 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 51% 9%
DFM Research January 2–5, 2019 550 (A) ± 4.2% 38% 46% 16%
Change Research (D)[H] December 2–4, 2018 540 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 47%
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] August 2–3, 2017 628 (V) ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%
Public Policy Polling (D)[J] June 30 – July 1, 2017 870 (V) ± 3.6% 39% 53% 8%
on whether Cory Gardner deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 50% 19%[ab]
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
YouGov/University of Colorado October 5–9, 2020 800 (LV) ± 4.64% 39% 47% 14%[ac]
Climate Nexus February 15–19, 2020 485 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 48% 12%[ad]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% 14%[ae]
Former candidates
with Mike Johnston
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Cory
Gardner (R)
Mike
Johnston (D)
Other Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)[G] August 13–14, 2019 617 (LV) ± 3.9% 39% 50% 11%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 2%[af] 14%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Colorado, 2020[143]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Cory Gardner (incumbent)
Democratic John Hickenlooper
Libertarian Raymon Doane
Approval Voting Daniel Doyle
Unity Stephen Evans
Write-in
Total votes 100.00%

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Romanoff's campaign
  2. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by 314 Action
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Colorado, a progressive and pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  5. ^ Giffords endorsed Hickenlooper prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^ End Citizens United supports candidates who oppose the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling
  7. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Mike Johnston
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples
  1. ^ A judge ruled that Lorena Garcia could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  2. ^ A judge ruled that Michelle Ferrigno Warren could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Undecided with 15%
  5. ^ Not yet released
  6. ^ Standard VI response
  7. ^ Undecided with 16%; Baer, Madden and Williams with 2%; Walsh with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
  8. ^ With only Hickenlooper and Romanoff as candidates
  9. ^ Undecided with 17%
  10. ^ Undecided with 15%
  11. ^ Undecided with 29%; Walsh with 4%; Williams with 3%; Baer and Madden with 1%
  12. ^ Doane (L) with 2%; Evans (Unity) with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  14. ^ Doane (L) with 2%; Doyle (Approval Voting), Evans (Unity) and "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  15. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  16. ^ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  17. ^ "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 8%
  18. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  19. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  20. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  21. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  22. ^ Undecided with 7%
  23. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size and voters who are undecided or for third party candidates
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 6%
  25. ^ Undecided with 9%
  26. ^ Undecided with 9%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  27. ^ "Don't know" with 17%; "other/none of the above" with 4%
  28. ^ "Refused" with 3%; Undecided with 16%
  29. ^ "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 12%
  30. ^ "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
  31. ^ "Undecided" with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 4%
  32. ^ Would not vote/would not vote for U.S. Senate with 2%

References[edit]

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  2. ^ "Colorado Revised Statutes Title 1 Elections § 1-4-801 Designation of party candidates by petition". Colorado Revised Statutes. State of Colorado. 2019. Retrieved February 23, 2019.
  3. ^ Amber Phillips (September 16, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip in November", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on September 16, 2020
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  6. ^ Dickinson, Tim (November 22, 2019). "The Battle for the Senate". Rolling Stone.
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  8. ^ "GARDNER, CORY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
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  16. ^ a b c d Families, Campaign for Working. "Bauer Endorses Gardner for Congress in CO-4". www.prnewswire.com.
  17. ^ a b RJC. "The RJC is proud to announce that the RJC PAC is endorsing @CoryGardner for reelection to the US Senate. Senator Gardner has been a strong friend top Israel and helped advance the GOP agenda on Capitol Hill!". Twitter.
  18. ^ PAC, Huck. "Candidates - Huck PAC". www.huckpac.com.
  19. ^ Schwartz, Brian (June 18, 2019). "Koch network backs vulnerable GOP Sen. Cory Gardner as he seeks reelection in 2020". CNBC.
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  23. ^ Staver, Anna (February 7, 2019). "Andrew Romanoff joins list of Democrats competing to challenge Cory Gardner". The Denver Post. Retrieved February 7, 2019.
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  38. ^ Miller, Blair (October 11, 2019). "Alice Madden drops out of Democratic field of Colorado's 2020 US Senate race". The Denver Channel. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  39. ^ "Keith Pottratz of Grand Junction bids for Cory Gardner's seat". The Denver Post. December 2, 2018. Retrieved December 10, 2018.
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  66. ^ a b "Our view: Endorsement in the U.S. Senate primary". The Durango Herald. June 12, 2020.
  67. ^ "Bend the Arc Jewish Action PAC". Bend the Arc: Jewish Action.
  68. ^ a b Luning, Ernest (May 19, 2020). "Congressional Black Caucus PAC endorses Hickenlooper in Senate primary". Colorado Politics.
  69. ^ a b "John Hickenlooper for Senate (D-CO)- Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  70. ^ a b Kornbluh, Jacob (May 20, 2020). "DMFI announces fourth wave of congressional endorsements". Jewish Insider.
  71. ^ a b "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  72. ^ a b "Former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords Comes to Denver to Back Gun Safety Champion John Hickenlooper for Senate". Giffords.
  73. ^ "J Street PAC proudly endorses Governor John Hickenlooper for Senate in Colorado". Hickenlooper for Colorado. June 18, 2020.
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  77. ^ a b "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses John Hickenlooper for Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. February 13, 2020.
  78. ^ a b "Candidates We Endorse and Support". NCPSSM.
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  80. ^ a b @Hickenlooper (January 2, 2020). "I am proud to earn the endorsement of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus @BOLDDems. I look forward to working with them in the Senate to prioritize Colorado workers and get Washington working again" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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Further reading[edit]

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites