2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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  Mitch McConnell 2016 official photo (cropped).jpg Amy McGrath Event- (49220643717) 1.jpg
Nominee Mitch McConnell Amy McGrath
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican



The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, is running for reelection to a seventh term in office. He faces off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville.[1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. Over 973,000 people requested absentee ballots, a far greater number than usual.

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

  • Nicholas Alsager[4]
  • Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor[4]
  • Louis Grider, truck driver[4]
  • Neren James[4]
  • Kenneth Lowndes[4]
  • Wesley Morgan, former state representative[5]

Withdrawn[edit]

  • Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur[4][6] (remained on ballot)
  • Karl Das[7][6]

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  McConnell—>90%
  McConnell—80–90%
  McConnell—70–80%
Republican primary results [8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 342,656 82.80%
Republican Wesley Morgan 25,588 6.18%
Republican Louis Grider 13,771 3.33%
Republican Paul John Frangedakis 11,957 2.89%
Republican Neren James 10,693 2.58%
Republican Kenneth Lowndes 5,548 1.34%
Republican Nicholas Alsager 3,602 0.87%
Republican Wendell K. Crow (withdrawn) 0 0.00%
Total votes 413,815 100.0%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

  • Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor[17] (endorsed Mike Broihier)[18] (remained on ballot)
  • Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician[19] (endorsed Charles Booker)[20]
  • Joshua Paul Edwards[21][6]
  • Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University[7][6]
  • Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble[22][6]

Declined[edit]

Campaign[edit]

There were debates on March 5, 2020[31][32] and June 1, 2020.[33][34]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Charles
Booker
Amy
McGrath
Other Undecided
Data for Progress[A] June 10–22, 2020 556 (LV) 43% 46% 10%
Garin-Hart-Yang[B] June 16–18, 2020 32% 42%
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 421 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 36% 9%[b] 11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] June 8–12, 2020 313 (RV) ± 7.0% 39% 49% 6%[c] 3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] May 2020 [d] 13% 62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] April 2020 [d] 11% 62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] January 2020 [d] 7% 65%

Endorsements[edit]

Charles Booker
Statewide officials
State and local officials from other states
Individuals
Newspapers
Unions
Organizations and political parties
Mike Broihier
State and local officials from other states
  • Richard Ojeda, West Virginia State Senator for the 7th district (2016–2019); 2020 presidential and U.S. Senate candidate[51]
Individuals
Organizations
Amy McGrath
Individuals

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  McGrath—60–70%
  McGrath—50–60%
  McGrath—40–50%
  Booker—40–50%
  Booker—50–60%
Democratic primary results [62]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Amy McGrath 247,037 45.41%
Democratic Charles Booker 231,888 42.62%
Democratic Mike Broihier 27,175 4.99%
Democratic Mary Ann Tobin 11,108 2.04%
Democratic Maggie Joe Hilliard 6,224 1.14%
Democratic Andrew Maynard 5,974 1.10%
Democratic Bennie J. Smith 5,040 0.93%
Democratic Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) 3,629 0.67%
Democratic Eric Rothmuller 2,995 0.55%
Democratic John R. Sharpensteen 2,992 0.55%
Total votes 544,062 100.0%

Other candidates[edit]

Libertarian primary[edit]

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky does not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and will hold its privately-operated primary, open to those who are and remain registered to vote as a Libertarian from January 1 to present in the state of Kentucky,[63] on March 8, 2020.[64] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[65]

Nominee[edit]

  • Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur[66]

Results[edit]

Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Brad Barron 100.0%
Libertarian None of the above
Total votes 100.0%

Reform Party[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Independents[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[69] Likely R July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[70] Safe R July 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[71] Likely R August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[72] Safe R July 22, 2020
Politico[73] Likely R July 6, 2020
RCP[74] Likely R August 6, 2020
Niskanen[75] Likely R July 26, 2020
270towin[76] Likely R August 6, 2020

Endorsements[edit]

Amy McGrath (D)
Individuals
Organizations
Unions

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Amy
McGrath (D)
Other /
Undecided
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 3, 2020 909 (RV) ± 3.3% 49% 44% 7%
Bluegrass Data (D) July 25–29, 2020 3,020 (RV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 4%
Morning Consult July 24 – August 2, 2020 793 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 36% 12%
Spry Strategies (R) July 11–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 55% 33% 12%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[B] July 7–12, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 41% 14%[e]
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 53% 33% 15%[f]
RMG Research[g] May 21–24, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 41% 19%[h]
Change Research (D)[B][80] January 17–21, 2020 1,281 (LV) ± 2.8% 41% 41% 18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[B][80] January 8–13, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 40% 17%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 6%
Change Research (D)[B] June 15–16, 2019 1,629 (LV) 47% 45% 8%
Hypothetical polling
with Charles Booker
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Charles
Booker (D)
Other /
Undecided
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 52% 38% 9%[i]
with Jim Gray
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Jim
Gray (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing June 11–12, 2019 741 ± 3.6% 49% 41% 10%
with Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 14–15, 2020 1,104 (V) 47% 44% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[D] Feb 11–12, 2019 748 ± 3.6% 45% 42% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] Aug 15–16, 2017 645 37% 44% 19%
on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 31% 62% 8%[j]
Public Policy Polling (D)[D] Feb 11–12, 2019 748 ± 3.6% 32% 61% 8%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 42% 13%[k]

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent)
Democratic Amy McGrath
Libertarian Brad Barron
Total votes 100.0%

Notes[edit]

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll released after the primary in July
  2. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by McGrath's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Booker's campaign
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Ditch Mitch Fund
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
Voter samples
  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Broihier with 4%; Tobin with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
  3. ^ Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
  4. ^ a b c Not yet released
  5. ^ Barron (L) and Undecided with 7%
  6. ^ Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
  7. ^ U.S. Term Limits is a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress. McGrath is one such candidate
  8. ^ Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
  9. ^ Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
  10. ^ Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
  11. ^ Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%

References[edit]

  1. ^ Nichols, John (June 22, 2020). "Charles Booker is determined to fight voter suppression in Kentucky". The Nation. Retrieved June 28, 2020.
  2. ^ Clark, Lesley; Desrochers, Daniel (June 13, 2018). "Mitch McConnell to Kentucky Gov. Bevin: Stay home and run for re-election". The Miami Herald.
  3. ^ Beam, Adam (August 4, 2018). "McConnell announces re-elect campaign at Fancy Farm picnic". AP News.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell just got two more primary opponents". wdrb.com.
  5. ^ Brammer, Jack (May 29, 2019). "Former Kentucky lawmaker challenging Mitch McConnell in GOP primary for U.S. Senate". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. June 2, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  7. ^ a b "McGrath running for Senate, hopes to challenge Sen. McConnell in 2020". WKYT. July 9, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  8. ^ "US SENATOR - REPUBLICAN". Secretary of State of Kentucky. Retrieved June 30, 2020.
  9. ^ Desrochers, Daniel (July 9, 2019). "Amy McGrath launches campaign for U.S. Senate, paints a target on Mitch McConnell". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved November 8, 2019.
  10. ^ Nilsen, Ella (June 30, 2020). "Amy McGrath just won her unexpectedly close Kentucky Senate primary". Vox.
  11. ^ Desrochers, Daniel (January 5, 2020). "Kentucky lawmaker Charles Booker launches bid to unseat Mitch McConnell in 2020". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
  12. ^ "Democrat Charles Booker decides on 2020 US Senate bid".
  13. ^ Bailey, Phillip (July 18, 2019). "Kentucky farmer, retired Marine wants to challenge Mitch McConnell in 2020 US Senate race". The Courier-Journal.
  14. ^ "Eric Rothmuller for Kentucky".
  15. ^ "Vote for Bennie J. Smith U.S. Senator 2020 – TEAM ONE KENTUCKY".
  16. ^ Cooney, Lynnette (January 10, 2020). "See who filed to run on the 2020 Kentucky ballot". www.wymt.com. WYMT | Mountain News.
  17. ^ "About the Candidate: Jimmy Ausbrooks – Jimmy Ausbrooks For Kentucky 2020 US Senate".
  18. ^ Jimmy Ausbrooks For Kentucky [@jimmy4congress] (May 29, 2020). "I welcome all my supporter to join me in supporting @MikeForKY for the Democratic nomination and together we will #BeTheChange Kentucky deserves!" (Tweet). Retrieved May 29, 2020 – via Twitter.
  19. ^ "Home". Steve Cox for US Senate.
  20. ^ Steve Cox-KY.US.Sen.Candidate [@StevenCoxUSA] (January 11, 2020). "I'm out of this race. I cant thank those that supported me enough. I love you all & this great state. I'll keep fighting. Mitch is done. Please everyone support Charles Booker. He is the only progressive hope left in this race. youtu.be/-6zgaujqwo8 via @YouTube" (Tweet). Retrieved January 11, 2020 – via Twitter.
  21. ^ "17 changes to the candidate list. 2020 Delegate Selection Update: District of Columbia Republican". The Green Papers. November 27, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  22. ^ "FILING FEC-1347619". FEC. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  23. ^ Desrochers, Daniel (December 2, 2019). "Rocky Adkins passes on U.S. Senate bid and takes job in Andy Beshear's administration". Kentucky.com. Retrieved January 13, 2020.
  24. ^ a b c d e Green, J.P. (March 20, 2019). "Can McConnell Be Defeated in 2020?". The Democratic Strategist. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
  25. ^ "Beshear set for 'next chapter' as Bevin concedes in Kentucky". AP NEWS. November 14, 2019.
  26. ^ "Matt Bevin concedes defeat in Kentucky governor's race". The Washington Post.
  27. ^ Bailey, Phillip M. (March 12, 2019). "Amy McGrath vs Mitch McConnell in 2020? Group launches campaign to 'draft' her". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved March 14, 2019.
  28. ^ Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 19, 2019.
  29. ^ "MATT JONES FOR KENTUCKY EXPLORATORY COMMITTEE". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  30. ^ Strauss, Ben. "Matt Jones, potential McConnell opponent, says he will not run for Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 16, 2019.
  31. ^ Ramsey, Mary (March 5, 2020). "Kentucky's Democratic Senate candidates face off in Indivisible candidate forum". Courier Journal. Retrieved July 5, 2020.
  32. ^ "WATCH LIVE: Ky. Democratic Senate Candidates Debate In Newport". WFPL. March 5, 2020. Retrieved June 19, 2020.
  33. ^ Gershon, Aaron, and Al Cross (June 2, 2020). "McGrath takes on Booker and Broihier in only scheduled Democratic U.S. Senate debate". Winchester Sun. Retrieved June 19, 2020.
  34. ^ "2020 Primary Election Candidates, Part Two". Kentucky Educational Television - KET/PBS. Retrieved July 5, 2020.
  35. ^ Forward Kentucky (June 5, 2020). "Endorsement news: Charles Booker, Alexandra Owensby". Retrieved June 9, 2020 – via Forward Kentucky.
  36. ^ Forward Kentucky (June 5, 2020). "Endorsement news: Charles Booker, Alexandra Owensby". Retrieved June 9, 2020 – via Forward Kentucky.
  37. ^ Aulbach, Lucas (June 22, 2020). "The Rev. Jesse Jackson backs Charles Booker ahead of Tuesday's Kentucky primary". Courier Journal. Retrieved June 22, 2020.
  38. ^ Editorial Board, Herald-Leader (June 9, 2020). "Passion over pragmatism. Charles Booker gets our endorsement in U.S. Senate primary". Lexington Herald-Leader.
  39. ^ Editorial Board, Courier-Journal (June 10, 2020). "'Change agent' Charles Booker is best Democratic candidate in Kentucky Senate race". Louisville Courier-Journal.
  40. ^ AFA (June 8, 2020). "Flight Attendants Union Endorses Charles Booker for United States Senate in Kentucky". Retrieved June 9, 2020 – via AFA News Release.
  41. ^ Booker, Charles [@Booker4KY] (May 27, 2020). "This is major! Labor unions and even more Louisville leaders have endorsed our campaign today!" (Tweet). Retrieved June 3, 2020 – via Twitter.
  42. ^ "National Nurses United Endorses Charles Booker for U.S. Senate". National Nurses United. June 19, 2020. Retrieved June 20, 2020.
  43. ^ "Brady PAC Endorses, Fundraises for Booker". NationalJournal. Retrieved June 29, 2020.
  44. ^ "Charles Booker". Brand New Congress. March 13, 2020. Retrieved March 15, 2020.
  45. ^ "Endorsements roll in for Charles Booker in Kentucky". Politico. June 17, 2020. Retrieved June 18, 2020.
  46. ^ "Friends of the Earth Action endorses Charles Booker, progressive Democrat running for U.S. Senate (KY)". FOE. Retrieved May 28, 2020.
  47. ^ "Endorsements roll in for Charles Booker in Kentucky". Politico. June 17, 2020. Retrieved June 18, 2020.
  48. ^ "KFTC's New Power PAC endorses Charles Booker in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate". KFTC. February 27, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2020.
  49. ^ "Endorsements roll in for Charles Booker in Kentucky". Politico. June 17, 2020. Retrieved June 18, 2020.
  50. ^ "Endorsements roll in for Charles Booker in Kentucky". Politico. June 17, 2020. Retrieved June 18, 2020.
  51. ^ "Ojeda Endorses Broihier in Primary Challenge". westkentuckystar.com. June 2, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2020.
  52. ^ Hutzer, Alexandria (May 28, 2020). "How a Kentucky Farmer Running to Unseat Mitch McConnell Earned Andrew Yang's Endorsement". Newsweek. Retrieved June 9, 2020.
  53. ^ "Indivisible Kentucky Endorses Mike Broihier in Senate Race". May 4, 2020.
  54. ^ a b Auberjonois, Rene [@reneauberjonois]. "I just chipped in to help @AmyMcGrathKY defeat Mitch McConnell in 2020" (Tweet) – via Twitter. Missing or empty |date= (help)[non-primary source needed]
  55. ^ a b "Page by Page Report Display (Page 768 of 3007)".
  56. ^ a b "Amy McGrath for Senate (D-KY) – Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  57. ^ a b "DSCC Endorses McGrath in race Against McConnell". TheHill.org.
  58. ^ a b "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  59. ^ a b "Giffords Endorses Amy McGrath in her Bid to Take On Mitch McConnell". Giffords. April 16, 2020.
  60. ^ a b "JStreetPAC Candidates". JStreetPAC.
  61. ^ a b "Candidates". VoteVets.org.
  62. ^ "US SENATOR - DEMOCRATIC". Secretary of State of Kentucky. Retrieved June 30, 2020.
  63. ^ "Libertarian Nomination participation criteria".
  64. ^ "Libertarian Party of Kentucky 2020 Annual Convention".
  65. ^ "Libertarian Party of Kentucky governance documents".
  66. ^ "Brad Barron Campaign Website".
  67. ^ "Derek Petteys Reform Party for Senate". Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  68. ^ "Kentucky Senate 2020 Race". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  69. ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  70. ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
  71. ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  72. ^ "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  73. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  74. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  75. ^ "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  76. ^ "2020 Senate Map Based on Polls". 270towin.com. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  77. ^ "Ann Coulter Supports Amy McGrath and Calls for Mitch McConnell's Defeat". July 10, 2020.
  78. ^ "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
  79. ^ "Primary and General Election Endorsements".
  80. ^ a b "Kentucky Polls". fivethirtyeight.com. June 28, 2018.

External links[edit]