2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina

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2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Thom Tillis
Republican



The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Party primary elections are scheduled for March 3, 2020.

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Thom Tillis
Federal officials
Organizations
Garland Tucker (Withdrawn)
State officials

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Larry
Holmquist
Sharon
Hudson
Thom
Tillis
Paul
Wright
Undecided
SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020 501 ± 5.0% 4% 4% 59% 3% 29%
High Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 198 3% 2% 62% 7% 27%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Sandy
Smith
Thom
Tillis
Garland
Tucker
Mark
Walker
Undecided
Civitas Institute December 2–4, 2019 500 ± 4.4% 11% 63% - - 25%
Fox News November 10–13, 2019 574 ± 4.0% 4% 54% 11% 26%
Public Policy Polling August 19–20, 2019 564 38% 31% 31%
Diversified Research (R)[A] July 8–9, 2019 500 40% 30% 30%
WPA Intelligence (R)[B] May 19–21, 2019 502 ± 4.5% 2% 40% 11% 17% 30%
43% 34% 23%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Larry Holmquist
Republican Sharon Hudson
Republican Thom Tillis (incumbent)
Republican Paul Wright
Total votes 100.0%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Cal Cunningham
Federal officials
State officials
County officials
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals
Erica D. Smith
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Individuals

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Cal
Cunningham
Trevor
Fuller
Atul
Goel
Erica
Smith
Steve
Swenson
Undecided
SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020 698 ± 4.9% 42% 3% 1% 17% 3% 34%
High Point University January 31 – February 6, 2020 224 (LV) 37% 4% 0% 11% 4% 44%
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2020 604 (LV) 29% 3% 2% 10% 4% 52%
Public Policy Polling January 10–12, 2020 509 (LV) 22% 2% 3% 12% 1% 60%
Fox News November 10–13, 2019 669 ± 4.0% 13% 10% 18% 49%

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Cal Cunningham
Democratic Trevor Fuller
Democratic Atul Goel
Democratic Erica D. Smith
Democratic Steve Swenson
Total votes 100.0%

Libertarian primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Constitution primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[72] Lean R February 5, 2020
Inside Elections[73] Tossup January 10, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[74] Tossup February 20, 2020
Politico[75] Tossup November 19, 2019

Polling[edit]

with Cal Cunningham
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis (R)
Cal
Cunningham (D)
Undecided
ALG Research (D) January 8–13, 2020 700 42% 44% 13%
Meredith College September 29 – October 7, 2019 996 ± 3% 33% 33% 17%
Public Policy Polling September 16–17, 2019 628 ± 3.9% 43% 45% 12%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling[C] June 17–18, 2019 610 ± 4.0% 40% 41% 19%
with Erica D. Smith
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis (R)
Erica D.
Smith (D)
Undecided
Meredith College September 29 – October 7, 2019 996 ± 3% 33% 34% 17%
Emerson College May 31 – June 3, 2019 932 ± 3.1% 39% 46% 15%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[D] June 30 – July 1, 2017 1,102 ± 3.6% 44% 48% 8%

Notes[edit]

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by the Garland Tucker campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by VoteVets.org
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Save My Care
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c Robertson, Gary D. (December 20, 2019). "N Carolina candidates rush for legislature, Meadows' seat". Raleigh News & Observer. Retrieved December 20, 2019.[dead link]
  2. ^ Cohen, Zach C. (December 5, 2018). "How 2014's Outsiders Became 2020's Insiders". National Journal. Retrieved December 5, 2018.
  3. ^ Woolverton, Paul (April 17, 2019). "Near-death experience inspires Eric Mansfield to consider US Senate race". The Fayetteville Observer. Retrieved April 26, 2019.
  4. ^ Pathé, Simone (December 2, 2019). "Garland Tucker drops Senate primary challenge to North Carolina's Thom Tillis". Roll Call. Retrieved December 2, 2019.
  5. ^ Frey, Kevin [@KevinFreyTV] (April 30, 2019). "In interview with @costareports, Rep. Mark Meadows says there's "zero chance" he will primary @SenThomTillis, but says he believes Tillis will have a "legitimate" primary opponent #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved April 30, 2019 – via Twitter.
  6. ^ Wong, Scott; Bolton, Alexander (March 13, 2019). "GOP's Tillis comes under pressure for taking on Trump". The Hill. Retrieved March 13, 2019.
  7. ^ Wong, Scott; Wilson, Reid (December 4, 2019). "NC rep explores Tillis primary challenge". The Hill. Retrieved December 4, 2019.
  8. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina has really stepped up to the plate. Thom is tough on Crime, Strong on the Border and fights hard against Illegal Immigration. He loves our Military, our Vets and our great Second Amendment. I give Thom my Full and Total Endorsement!". Twitter.
  9. ^ Lindsey Graham. "Sen. @ThomTillis stood with me against the liberal mob to confirm Justice Kavanaugh, and he will continue to stand for @realDonaldTrump's agenda of a strong military, lower taxes, and conservative judges. This is why I strongly urge my neighbors in NC to re-elect @ThomTillis". Twitter.
  10. ^ https://nypost.com/2019/09/13/john-bolton-returns-to-former-position-as-head-of-two-pacs/
  11. ^ https://www.sba-list.org/candidate/thom-tillis
  12. ^ Garland Tucker press release
  13. ^ Robertson, Gary D. (June 17, 2019). "Democrat Cal Cunningham enters North Carolina Senate race". Associated Press. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
  14. ^ "Thom Tillis getting his first serious 2020 challenger". charlotteobserver. Retrieved 2019-01-29.
  15. ^ a b Daniel, Nyamekye (December 9, 2019). "U.S. Sen. Tillis files for re-election amid handful of challengers". The Center Square. Retrieved December 20, 2019.
  16. ^ "Teacher becomes 3rd Democrat to seek Thom Tillis' U.S. Senate seat in 2020". newsobserver. Retrieved 2019-01-29.
  17. ^ "LEE, EVA F MS - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved 2019-01-29.
  18. ^ Colin Campbell [@RaleighReporter] (Feb 8, 2019). "The first Democrat to announce a run for Tillis' U.S. Senate seat is switching races to run for labor commissioner #ncpol" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  19. ^ Campbell, Colin [@RaleighReporter] (July 5, 2019). "Just in: Former state Sen. Eric Mansfield announces he won't run for U.S. Senate after all. This leaves Cal Cunningham, Erica Smith and Trevor Fuller in the Democratic primary race #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved July 5, 2019 – via Twitter.
  20. ^ a b c d e Mills, Thomas (April 29, 2019). "Challengers for Tillis". PoliticsNC. Retrieved April 29, 2019.
  21. ^ Jackson, Jeff [@JeffJacksonNC] (August 14, 2019). "I appreciate everyone's encouragement to run for U.S. Senate this term. We've decided that's more than our family can do right now - but I am fully committed to helping take the majority in the General Assembly. I hope you'll join our fight. #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved August 14, 2019 – via Twitter.
  22. ^ "A rising statewide star". NC SPIN Balanced Debate for the Old North State. 2019-01-24. Retrieved 2019-01-29.
  23. ^ McCready, Dan [@McCreadyForNC] (October 17, 2019). "If you don't know Cal: he is a fellow veteran and a good friend of mine. Cal is running to challenge Sen Tillis in what was just rated a toss-up race. I'm proud to support Cal. If we're gonna protect voting rights, we MUST return the Senate to Dem control" (Tweet). Retrieved October 17, 2019 – via Twitter.
  24. ^ Boyum, Tim [@timboyumtv] (June 14, 2019). "NEW: Fmr State Treasurer Richard Moore tells me he has met with @SenSchumer and @dscc and is considering a run for U.S. Senate--no timetable on a decision. #ncsen #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved June 14, 2019 – via Twitter.
  25. ^ Morrill, Jim (January 30, 2019). "Tillis, rivals gear up for a costly Senate race. Could Democrats pick up a seat?". Charlotte Observer. Retrieved January 31, 2019.
  26. ^ Murphy, Brian [@MurphinDC] (December 2, 2019). "Been a lot of speculation that Deborah Ross would jump into the newly created (as of now) NC02. Looks like she's running. Ross lost to Richard Burr in 2016 Senate race" (Tweet). Retrieved December 2, 2019 – via Twitter.
  27. ^ Arkin, James (March 13, 2019). "Senate recruiting notebook: Multiple Democrats eyeing Texas". Politico Pro. Retrieved March 13, 2019. Tom Ross, the president of the Volcker Alliance and former president of the University of North Carolina system, is a potential candidate, according to North Carolina Democrats. Ross, who was mentioned as a possible Senate candidate in 2016 but declined to run, confirmed to POLITICO that people have talked to him about the race and he’s “considering what they have to say.”
  28. ^ Schneider, Elena (March 6, 2019). "Democratic state AG won't challenge Tillis for North Carolina Senate seat". Politico. Retrieved March 6, 2019.
  29. ^ comedy, poopdogcomedy (Dec 30, 2019). "NC-Sen: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D. OH) Helps Cal Cunningham (D) Get Ready To Defeat Thom Tillis (R)". Daily KOS.
  30. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s Cunningham, Cal [@CalforNC] (October 16, 2019). "I'm truly honored by the support our #NCSen team has received. Today, I'm proud to share that 140 leaders across our state have endorsed our campaign" (Tweet). Retrieved October 16, 2019 – via Twitter.
  31. ^ Boxer, Barbara [@BarbaraBoxer] (January 9, 2020). "North Carolina's Senate race is one to watch. We can return it to the blue column with Cal Cunningham, @CalForNC, who is running a great race against Trumpster @SenThomTillis. Let's all support Cal and make NC part of our work to #FlipTheSenate" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  32. ^ "NC-Sen: Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D. PA) Helps Cal Cunningham (D) Defeat Thom "Cover-Up" Tillis (R)". Daily KOS. February 10, 2020.
  33. ^ Durbin, Dick [@DickDurbin] (December 6, 2019). "If we're going to take back the Senate, we need to flip GOP-held seats in critical states like Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina. Pitch in now to support Democratic candidates @Hickenlooper, @GreenfieldIowa, & @CalforNC:" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  34. ^ a b Morrill, Jim (June 17, 2019). "Democrat Cal Cunningham enters US Senate race, and draws fire from both sides". Charlotte Observer. Retrieved July 30, 2019.
  35. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap Cunningham, Cal [@CalforNC] (June 24, 2019). "Wow. Since we launched this campaign, we've heard from people all over NC ready to support this team & fight for this Senate seat. Today I'm proud to announce that this incredible group of North Carolinians is endorsing our campaign. #NCSen" (Tweet). Retrieved July 31, 2019 – via Twitter.
  36. ^ comedy, poopdogcomedy (Dec 30, 2019). "NC-Sen: Sen. Tim Kaine (D. VA) Helps Cal Cunningham (D) Get Ready To Defeat Thom Tillis (R)". Daily KOS.
  37. ^ Murphy, Chris [@ChrisMurphyCT] (August 9, 2019). "In 2014 the NRA spent $4.4 million to get Thom Tillis elected to the Senate in North Carolina. But we can beat him in 2020. Chip in to support @CalforNC to help us flip the Senate and change our gun laws" (Tweet). Retrieved August 10, 2019 – via Twitter.
  38. ^ Harrison, Jaime [@harrisonjaime] (December 15, 2019). "This is why we need to #TakeBacktheCarolinas! Senator Tillis and Senator Graham are out of touch with folks here in the Carolinas, and @CalForNC and I are running to fight for working people. ⬇️ Donate to our Take Back the Carolinas Fund ⬇️" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  39. ^ Jackson, Jeff [@JeffJacksonNC] (October 3, 2019). "Sen. Tillis has neglected every major challenge our state faces.Cal Cunningham has a record of real leadership - in our military and in our state legislature.He's also shown that he's in the best position to win, which is absolutely vital. I'm proud to support him" (Tweet). Retrieved October 4, 2019 – via Twitter.
  40. ^ a b Morrill, Jim (July 8, 2019). "One Tillis challenger emerges as the favorite of Democratic leaders and donors". Charlotte Observer. Retrieved July 31, 2019.
  41. ^ Ford, Greg [@GregFordNC] (September 7, 2019). "Mexico isn't paying for #Trump's wall; our troops and their families are. Thank you, @CalforNC, for standing up for our military's heroes. Mr. Tillis's failure makes him the #BiggestLoser of all @GOP senators on this list. NC deserves better and I know you will deliver. #NCpol" (Tweet). Retrieved September 10, 2019 – via Twitter.
  42. ^ Cunningham, Cal [@CalforNC] (February 11, 2020). "Honored and grateful to have Mayor Pro Tem Heggins' support" (Tweet). Retrieved February 12, 2020 – via Twitter.
  43. ^ Cunningham, Cal [@CalforNC] (January 27, 2020). "Was so happy to participate in @NCNAACP's forum in Greensboro over the weekend. I'm proud to have the endorsements of many leaders in the area, including Mayor Pro Tem Yvonne Johnson, and excited to work together to win this #NCSen seat" (Tweet). Retrieved January 27, 2020 – via Twitter.
  44. ^ Cunningham, Cal [@CalforNC] (February 2, 2020). "Thank you, @WendyBSellars, for your kind words! I couldn't be more honored to have your support in this race" (Tweet). Retrieved February 2, 2020 – via Twitter.
  45. ^ Brown, Kris (December 19, 2019). "Brady Endorses Cal Cunningham for U.S. Senate: A Common-Sense Champion for Gun Violence Prevention". Brady Campaign. Retrieved December 28, 2019.
  46. ^ Cunningham, Cal [@CalforNC] (February 18, 2020). "Our current representatives have tilted the playing field so far away from fair that many North Carolinians are being left behind. I couldn't be more proud to have @CWA_political's support as we work together to fight for an economy that works for everyone" (Tweet). Retrieved February 18, 2020 – via Twitter.
  47. ^ "Cal Cunningham for Senate (D-NC)- Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  48. ^ Murphy, Brian (October 31, 2019). "National Democrats make their pick in North Carolina's Senate primary". The News & Observer. Retrieved October 31, 2019.
  49. ^ Arkin, James [@JamesArkin] (July 30, 2019). "End Citizens United endorses Cal Cunningham in #NCSen. They've also endorsed Dem candidates in ME IA AZ NM and TX" (Tweet). Retrieved July 30, 2019 – via Twitter.
  50. ^ "JStreetPAC Candidates". JStreetPAC.
  51. ^ Voters, League of [@LCVoters] (July 31, 2019). "LCVAF is proud to endorse @CalforNC to represent NC in the Senate! As a veteran and entrepreneur, Cunningham knows the national security & economic threats of #climatechange. He has the experience that is needed to help advance our #cleanenergy future in the Senate. #NCSen" (Tweet). Retrieved August 10, 2019 – via Twitter.
  52. ^ Richtman, Max (October 29, 2019). "National Committee Endorses Cal Cunningham in NC Senate Race".
  53. ^ Cunningham, Cal [@CalforNC] (February 10, 2020). "I'm ready to get to work partnering with educators across our state to secure the resources needed in our public schools. In the Senate, I'm committed to doing what it takes to give all students the sound, basic education that will allow them to grow and thrive" (Tweet). Retrieved February 10, 2020 – via Twitter.
  54. ^ Murphy, Brian [@MurphinDC] (February 10, 2020). "North Carolina Association Of Educators (@ncae) endorses @CalforNC in #NCSen race. "He believes in the promise of our state and I know he will be a champion and strong advocate for schools and educators in Washington," said NCAE President Mark Jewel. #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved February 10, 2020 – via Twitter.
  55. ^ "Working people proudly endorse @CalforNC for US Senate in the March 3, 2020 primary!". 10 December 2019.
  56. ^ >"Endorsements". replacementsltdpac. Replacements Ltd. PAC.
  57. ^ Morrill, Jim [@jimmorrill] (June 19, 2019). "Big-spending VoteVets PAC endorses D Cal Cunningham in #NCSEN. #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved July 30, 2019 – via Twitter.
  58. ^ "Endorsements - Voter Protection Project". Voter Protection Project.
  59. ^ Editorial Board, Observer (February 14, 2020). "Our endorsement for the U.S. Senate Democratic primary in North Carolina". Charlotte Observer.
  60. ^ Editorial Board, Indy (February 12, 2020). "The INDY's Endorsements for President, U.S. Senate, and Congress". Indy Week.
  61. ^ McCready, Dan [@McCreadyForNC] (October 17, 2019). "If you don't know Cal: he is a fellow veteran and a good friend of mine. Cal is running to challenge Sen Tillis in what was just rated a toss-up race. I'm proud to support Cal. If we're gonna protect voting rights, we MUST return the Senate to Dem control" (Tweet). Retrieved October 17, 2019 – via Twitter.
  62. ^ "Page by Page Report Display (Page 945 of 1405)".
  63. ^ "Endorsements".
  64. ^ "Endorsements".
  65. ^ "Endorsements".
  66. ^ "Senator Erica Smith for NC". www.facebook.com.
  67. ^ "Endorsements".
  68. ^ Editorial Board, Indy (February 12, 2020). "The INDY's Endorsements for President, U.S. Senate, and Congress". Indy Week.
  69. ^ "Equality North Carolina Endorsed Candidates 2020". Equality NC. February 17, 2020.
  70. ^ "FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY - SHANNON BRAY" (PDF). FEC. July 16, 2019. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  71. ^ NC State Board of Elections: Candidate List Grouped by Contest
  72. ^ "2020 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-08-02.
  73. ^ "Senate Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-08-02.
  74. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 Senate". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-08-02.
  75. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites