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2020 United States presidential election

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2020 United States presidential election

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win

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About this image
The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census

Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



The 2020 United States presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or reelect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who was elected in 2016, is seeking reelection to a second term. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The nominee then personally chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's presidential ticket (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1]

In August 2018, the Democratic National Committee voted to disallow superdelegates from voting on the first ballot of the nominating process, beginning with the 2020 election. This would require a candidate to win a majority of pledged delegates from the assorted primary elections in order to win the party's nomination. The last time this did not occur was the nomination of Adlai Stevenson II at the 1952 Democratic National Convention.[2]

The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution states that an individual can not be elected to the presidency more than twice. This prohibits former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from being elected president again. Former president Jimmy Carter (a nonagenarian), having served a single term as president, is not constitutionally prohibited from being elected to another term in the 2020 election.

Demographic trends

The age group of what will then be people in the 18- to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.[3]

A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians and other ethnic minorities, as well as "whites with a college degree" are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. This shift is potentially an advantage for the Democratic nominee, however due to geographical differences, this could still lead to President Trump (or a different Republican nominee) winning the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016.[4]

Additionally, Washington, D.C. may lower its voting age from 18 to 16. Legislation was introduced by City Councilman Charles Allen in April 2018, with a public hearing in June, and a vote by the end of the year. Unlike other cities with a voting age of 16 such as Berkeley, California, this would allow 16 and 17-year-olds to vote for President of the United States for the first time in 2020. Allen said that he was inspired by the high school students that participated in the March for Our Lives, which occurred at the capital in March.[5]

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win elections.[6] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[7]

General election polling

Nominations

Republican Party

Donald Trump is eligible to run for reelection and intends to do so.[8] His reelection campaign has been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign".[9] On January 20, 2017, at 5:11 p.m., he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, by which he reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[10]

Beginning in August 2017, reports arose that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against Trump, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party. Now late Arizona Senator John McCain said that "[Republicans] see weakness in this president."[11] Maine Senator Susan Collins, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie all expressed doubts in 2017 that Trump will be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating "it's too difficult to say."[12][13] Senator Jeff Flake claimed in 2017 that Trump is "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he is governing.[14] Longtime political strategist Roger Stone, however, predicted in May 2018 that Trump may not seek a second term if he succeeds in keeping all of his campaign promises and "makes America great again", à la James K. Polk.[15]

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have held public office or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump
June 14, 1946
(age 72)
New York City, New York
President of the United States since 2017
Reform Party Candidate for President in 2000
Flag of New York.svg
New York
January 20, 2017
TrumpPence20logo.svg
(CampaignWebsite)
FEC Filing
[16]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.


Convention site

On July 20, 2018, the Republican National Convention chose Charlotte, North Carolina as the site for their 2020 national convention.[24] The convention will be held from August 24 until August 27, 2020.[25]

Endorsements

Donald Trump

Democratic Party

After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless[26] and fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressive Sanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election.[27][28]

This establishment/progressive divide was reflected in several elections leading up to the 2020 primaries, most notably in 2017 with the election for DNC Chair between Tom Perez and Sanders-backed progressive Keith Ellison:[29] Perez was elected Chairman, but Ellison was appointed as the Deputy Chair, a largely ceremonial role. In 2018, several U.S. House districts that Democrats hope to gain from the Republican majority had contentious primary elections. These clashes were described by Politico's Elena Schneider as a "Democratic civil war".[30] Meanwhile, there has been a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration among Democrats in the Senate, likely to build up credentials for the upcoming primary election.[31][32]

Perez has commented that the 2020 primary field will likely go into double-digits, rivaling the size of the 2016 GOP primary, which consisted of 17 major candidates.[33] In the wake of the Me Too movement, several female candidates are expected to enter the race, increasing the likelihood of the Democrats nominating a woman for the second time in a row.[34] Speculation also mounted that Democrats' best bet to defeat President Trump would be to nominate their own celebrity or businessperson with no government experience, most notably Oprah Winfrey after her memorable speech at the 75th Golden Globe Awards.[35]

The topic of age has been brought up among the most likely front-runners: former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who will be 78, 71, and 79 respectively on inauguration day. Former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (who will be age 81 on inauguration day) described the trio as "an old folks' home", expressing a need for fresh faces to step up and lead the party.[36]

Declared major candidates

In addition to having stated that they are running for president in 2020, the candidates in this section have held public office or have been included in a minimum of five independent national polls:

Name Born Experience State Announced Ref
Julián Castro's Official HUD Portrait.jpg
Julian Castro
September 16, 1974
(age 44)
San Antonio, Texas
U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014–2017)
Mayor of San Antonio, Texas (2009–2014)
Flag of Texas.png
Texas
January 12, 2019
Julian2020version1logo.png
(CampaignWebsite)
FEC Filing
[37]
John Delaney 113th Congress official photo.jpg
John Delaney
April 16, 1963
(age 55)
Wood-Ridge, New Jersey
U.S. Representative from MD-06 (2013–2019) Flag of Maryland.svg
Maryland
July 28, 2017
John Delaney logo.jpg
(CampaignWebsite)
FEC Filing
[38]
MAJ Richard Ojeda.jpg
Richard Ojeda
September 25, 1970
(age 48)
Rochester, Minnesota
West Virginia State Senator (2016–2019)
Democratic nominee for U.S. Representative from WV-03 in 2018
Flag of West Virginia.svg
West Virginia
November 11, 2018
Ojeda's presidential campaign.png
(CampaignWebsite)
FEC Filing
[39]

Other declared candidates

According to The New York Times, over four hundred people have sent the requisite paperwork to the Federal Election Commission, including the following notable candidates:

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced
.Michael E Arth 2020 presidential campaign-1.jpg
Michael E. Arth
April 27, 1953
(age 65)
Burtonwood, England
Architectural designer, builder, urban designer & public policy analyst
Candidate for Governor of Florida in 2010
Flag of Florida.svg
Florida
November 4, 2018
(Website)
FEC filing[40]
Ken-E-Nwadike-Jr-motivational-speaker.jpg
Ken Nwadike
December 29, 1981
(age 37)
San Diego, California
Peace activist, inspirational speaker, video journalist Flag of California.svg
California
October 18, 2017
(Website)
FEC Filing
Robby Wells.PNG
Robby Wells
April 10, 1968
(age 50)
Bartow, Georgia
Former college football coach
Natural Law nominee for U.S. Representative from California in 1996
Candidate for President in 2012 and 2016
Flag of Georgia (U.S. state).svg
Georgia
May 24, 2017
(Website)
FEC Filing
Andrew Yang talking about urban entrepreneurship at Techonomy Conference 2015 in Detroit, MI (cropped).jpg
Andrew Yang
January 13, 1975
(age 44)
Schenectady, New York
Entrepreneur, lawyer, founder of Venture for America Flag of New York.svg
New York
November 6, 2017
Andrew Yang 2020 logo.png
(Website)
FEC Filing

Individuals who have a scheduled announcement

Individuals who are formally exploring a candidacy

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months. Some already have leadership PACs that function as campaign committees.[51]

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced in June 2018. The winning bid was supposed to be revealed in the summer of 2018. The convention is scheduled to be held from July 13 to 16, 2020.[112]

Endorsements

Julian Castro
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
John Delaney
U.S. Representatives
Richard Ojeda
Individuals
Andrew Yang
Individuals

Libertarian Party

Declared candidates

These candidates have established campaign websites.

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref
Kokesh2013.jpg
Adam Kokesh
February 1, 1982
(age 36)
San Francisco, California
Libertarian and anti-war political activist
Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018
Candidate for U.S. Representative from New Mexico in 2010
Flag of Arizona.svg
Arizona
July 18, 2013
(CampaignWebsite)
FEC Filing
[131]
John McAfee by Gage Skidmore.jpg
John McAfee
September 18, 1945
(age 73)
Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire,
England
Founder and CEO of McAfee, Inc. 1987–1994
Candidate for President in 2016
Flag of Tennessee.svg
Tennessee
June 3, 2018
McAfee 2020 logo.png
(Website)
[132]
Lozwp DSC00677.jpg
Vermin Supreme
June 1961
(age 57)
Rockport, Massachusetts
Performance artist and activist
Candidate for President in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016
Candidate for Mayor of Detroit, Michigan in 1989
Candidate for Mayor of Baltimore, Maryland in 1987
Flag of Kansas.svg
Kansas
May 28, 2018
Vermin Supreme A Dictator You Can Trust.jpg
(Website)
[133]
Arvin Vohra on The Tatiana Show.jpg
Arvin Vohra
May 9, 1979
(age 39)
Silver Spring, Maryland
Vice Chair of the LNC 2014–2018
Libertarian nominee for U.S. Senate from Maryland in 2018
Libertarian nominee for U.S. Representative in 2012 and 2014
Candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016
Flag of Maryland.svg
Maryland
July 3, 2018
(Website)
[134]

Withdrawn

Publicly expressed interest

Convention site

On December 10, 2017, the Libertarian National Committee chose Austin, Texas as the site of their 2020 national convention. The convention will be held between May 22–25, 2020.[136][137]

Green Party

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.

Independent or unaffiliated

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.

Party conventions

The 2020 Democratic National Convention is scheduled from July 13–16 at a city to be announced,[143] while the 2020 Republican National Convention is planned to be held in Charlotte, North Carolina from August 24–27.[144]. This will be the first time since 2004 that the two major party conventions will be held at least one month apart with the Summer Olympic Games in between (in 2008 and 2012, the Democratic and Republican conventions were held in back-to-back weeks following the Olympics, while in 2016 both were held before the Rio Games).[citation needed]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c This individual is not a member of the Democratic Party, but has been the subject of speculation or expressed interest in running under this party.

References

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