2020 United States presidential election in New York
|Elections in New York State|
The 2020 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New York has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College. Trump announced that Florida would be his home state for this election, rather than New York as it had been previously. This was the first presidential election in New York to allow no-excuse absentee voting.
New York remained a blue state, with Biden winning with 60.86% of the vote, while Trump received 37.75% of the vote, a 23.11% Democratic victory margin. Trump won more individual counties, taking 41 counties statewide to Biden's 21. Both Biden and Trump improved from their 2016 counterparts, with Biden receiving a larger vote share and margin of victory than Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Trump earned a slightly higher percentage of the vote despite losing the state by a larger margin, due to fewer voters choosing third-party candidates.
Biden largely improved over Clinton's margins in the more competitive Upstate region, whereas Trump's improvements largely came from the New York City metropolitan area. Biden flipped Broome, Essex, Rensselaer and Saratoga counties from the previous election. Notably, an additional six counties (Cortland, Ontario, Franklin, Orange, Suffolk, and Warren) voted for Trump by a narrow margin of fewer than 500 votes each. Biden is the first Democrat since 1976 to win the presidency without Franklin and Cortland Counties, as well as the first since 1992 without Suffolk County. Biden won 5.2 million votes, the most received by a Democratic presidential candidate in the state's history. Despite this, the New York City boroughs of Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx each swung at least 7% to Donald Trump, with The Bronx swinging 13%.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, garnering 91% of blacks; 70% of Latinos, including 75% of Latinos of Puerto Rican heritage; 58% of Jewish voters; and 56% of union households. Biden carried four of the five boroughs of New York City, only losing Staten Island.
Canceled Republican primary
On March 3, 2020, the New York Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses. Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to submit the required number of names of his 162 total delegates, both the 94 primary ones and the alternates. Among Trump's major challengers, Bill Weld only submitted about half of his required delegates, and neither Rocky De La Fuente nor Joe Walsh sent in any names at all. With the cancellation, Trump automatically gets to send his 94 New York pledged delegates to the national convention.
On April 27, 2020, New York State elections officials had decided to cancel the state's Democratic primary altogether, citing the fact that former Vice President Joe Biden was the only major candidate left in the race after all the others had suspended their campaigns, and canceling it would save the state millions of dollars from printing the extra sheet on the ballot. However, on May 5, a federal judge ruled that the Democratic primary must proceed on June 23 after a suit made by former presidential primary candidate Andrew Yang.
Among the other major candidates were entrepreneur Andrew Yang, Kirsten Gillibrand, one of New York's two current senators, and Bill de Blasio, the mayor of New York City. However, on August 29, 2019, Gillibrand dropped out of the race. Bill de Blasio as well dropped out on September 20, 2019, after failing to qualify for the 4th Democratic debate.
|Bernie Sanders (suspended)||285,908||16.25%||43|
|Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)||82,917||4.71%|
|Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)||39,433||2.24%|
|Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)||22,927||1.30%|
|Andrew Yang (withdrawn)||22,686||1.29%|
|Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)||11,028||0.63%|
|Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)||9,083||0.52%|
|Deval Patrick (withdrawn)||3,040||0.17%|
|Michael Bennet (withdrawn)||2,932||0.17%|
|Tom Steyer (withdrawn)||2,299||0.13%|
The Working Families Party cross-endorsed the Democratic ticket, nominating Joe Biden for president and Kamala Harris for vice president. Several prominent Democrats, including Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer encouraged voting for Biden and Harris on the WFP line, in order for the party to keep ballot access.
|The Cook Political Report||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|Inside Elections||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|Sabato's Crystal Ball||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|Politico||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|RCP||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|Niskanen||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|CNN||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|The Economist||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|CBS News||Likely D||November 3, 2020|
|270towin||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|ABC News||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|NPR||Likely D||November 3, 2020|
|NBC News||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|538||Safe D||November 3, 2020|
|Source of poll
|Real Clear Politics||April 30 – September 29, 2020||November 3, 2020||59.7%||31.0%||9.3%||Biden +28.7|
|FiveThirtyEight||until November 2, 2020||November 3, 2020||62.3%||32.9%||4.8%||Biden +29.4|
|SurveyMonkey/Axios||Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020||6,548 (LV)||± 2%||35%[c]||63%||–||–||–||–|
|Research Co.||Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020||450 (LV)||± 4.6%||34%||64%||-||-||2%[d]||4%|
|SurveyMonkey/Axios||Oct 1–28, 2020||10,220 (LV)||–||34%||63%||-||-||–||–|
|Swayable||Oct 23–26, 2020||495 (LV)||± 5.8%||33%||65%||1%||1%||–||–|
|SurveyMonkey/Axios||Sep 1–30, 2020||10,007 (LV)||–||34%||64%||-||-||–||2%|
|Siena College||Sep 27–29, 2020||504 (LV)||± 4.4%||29%||61%||0%||1%||2%[e]||7%|
|SurveyMonkey/Axios||Aug 1–31, 2020||9,969 (LV)||–||34%||64%||-||-||–||2%|
|Public Policy Polling||Aug 20–22, 2020||1,029 (V)||± 3.1%||32%||63%||-||-||–||5%|
|SurveyMonkey/Axios||Jul 1–31, 2020||10,280 (LV)||–||34%||63%||-||-||–||2%|
|SurveyMonkey/Axios||Jun 8–30, 2020||4,555 (LV)||–||33%||65%||-||-||–||2%|
|Siena College||Jun 23–25, 2020||806 (RV)||± 3.9%||32%||57%||-||-||–||10%|
|Siena College||May 17–21, 2020||767 (RV)||± 3.7%||32%||57%||-||-||–||11%|
|Quinnipiac University||Apr 30 – May 4, 2020||915 (RV)||± 3.2%||32%||55%||-||-||5%[f]||8%|
|Siena College||Apr 19–23, 2020||803 (RV)||± 3.7%||29%||65%||-||-||–||6%|
|Siena College||Mar 22–26, 2020||566 (RV)||± 4.5%||33%||58%||-||-||–||10%|
|Siena College||Feb 16–20, 2020||658 (RV)||± 4.5%||36%||55%||-||-||–||5%|
with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
with Donald Trump and Bill de Blasio
with Donald Trump and Kirsten Gillibrand
with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
|Joe Biden and
Working Families Party
|Donald Trump and
|Jo Jorgensen and
|Howie Hawkins and
|Brock Pierce and|
Katherine M. Sheehan
Thomas J. Garry
Gary S. LaBarbera
Stuart H. Applebaum
George K. Gresham
Mario F. Cilento
Hazel Nell Dukes
Rubén Díaz Jr.
Jennifer Saul Rich
Shaun Marie Levine
|Daniel P. Donnelly
Duane J. Whitmer
Robert M. Arrigo
Mark N. Axinn
Erin M. Becker
Rachel E. Becker
Kari R. Bittner
Mark S. Braiman
Jay A. Carr
Tucker C. Coburn
Kevin A. Wilson
Milva E. Dordal
Pietro S. Geraci
Paul M. Grindle
Mark E. Glogowski
Andrew M. Kolstee
Peyton D. Kunselman
Brandon G. Lyon
Leonard E. Morlock
Lora L. Newell
Thomas D. Quiter
Paul C. Sechrist
William C. Anderson
Peter A. Lavenia
Cassandra J. Lems
Paul W. Gilman
Barbara A. Kidney
Joseph R. Naham
Michael E. O'Neil
Eric M. Jones
Carol S. Przybylak
Tatianna M. Moragne
James R. Brown III
Michael D. Emperor
Jennifer R. White
Allan D. Hunter
Mary B. House
Serena L. Seals
Craig A. Seeman
Adrienne R. Craig-Williams
Christopher J. Archer
Debra A. Rosario
David L. Giannascoli
Scott R. Major
Robert G. Pilnick
Gary P. Newman
Joseph W. Fuller
Maryann H. Major
Andrew J. Bogardt
Anna C. Bogardt
Robert J. Bogardt
Trisha L. Sterling
Thomas A. Connolly
Atef S. Zeina
Joseph L. Baruth
Paul E. Caputo
Edward G. Miller
Thomas S. Connolly
Dennis R. Zack
Richard S. Bellando
Frank M. MacKay
Kristin A. MacKay
Carolyn P. Major
New York's inexperience processing a large number of mail ballots, having only legalized no-excuse absentee voting in 2019, led to ballots taking weeks to count. Over two million ballots and over 20% of the votes were cast by mail. New York failed to meet its November 28 deadline to certify the election, with hundreds of thousands of votes still uncounted. State Senator Michael Gianaris commented, "if we were a swing state in this presidential election, this would be a national scandal".
The delay in the counting of mail-in ballots wrongly made it seem at first that Biden had underperformed Hillary Clinton in 2016, a phenomenon some commentators called a "red mirage." However, when all votes were counted, Biden exceeded Clinton's margin over Trump by about 0.6 percentage points. This was due to improved performance in Upstate New York and on Long Island. Meanwhile, four of New York City's five boroughs shifted towards Trump, Staten Island being the exception.Donald Trump is the first Republican to receive 3 million or more raw votes in New York since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden flipped 4 counties that Trump won in 2016: Broome, Essex, Rensselaer, and Saratoga counties. Biden also came very close to flipping an additional six counties, as he lost Cortland County by 420 votes, Franklin County by 415 votes, Ontario County by 14 votes, Orange County by 312 votes, Suffolk County by 232 votes, and Warren County by just 57 votes. Trump's narrow victories in these counties meant that they were decided by a combined total of just 1450 votes out of more than 1 million votes cast across all five counties. According to exit polls by CNN, Biden won 96% of Democrats, who were 41% of the electorate, 59% of Independents, who made up 32% of voters, and 21% of Republicans, who made up 27% of the vote.
|Working Families||Joe Biden
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Broome (largest municipality: Binghamton)
- Essex (largest municipality: North Elba)
- Rensselaer (largest municipality: Troy)
- Saratoga (largest municipality: Saratoga Springs)
- United States presidential elections in New York
- 2020 New York state elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Pierce (I) with 2%, "someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
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