2020 United States presidential election in New York

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2020 United States presidential election in New York

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout69.5% Increase 2.2%
  Joe Biden 2013.jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 29 0
Popular vote 5,230,985 3,244,798
Percentage 60.86% 37.75%

New York Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris.[2] New York has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3] Trump announced that Florida would be his home state for this election, rather than New York as it had been previously.[4] This was the first presidential election in New York to allow no-excuse absentee voting.[5]

New York remained a blue state, with Biden winning with 60.86% of the vote, while Trump received 37.75% of the vote, a 23.11% Democratic victory margin. Trump won more individual counties, taking 41 counties statewide to Biden's 21. Both Biden and Trump improved from their 2016 counterparts, with Biden receiving a larger vote share and margin of victory than Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Trump earned a slightly higher percentage of the vote despite losing the state by a larger margin, due to fewer voters choosing third-party candidates.

Biden largely improved over Clinton's margins in the more competitive Upstate region, whereas Trump's improvements largely came from the New York City metropolitan area. Biden flipped Broome, Essex, Rensselaer and Saratoga counties from the previous election. Notably, an additional six counties (Cortland, Ontario, Franklin, Orange, Suffolk, and Warren) voted for Trump by a narrow margin of fewer than 500 votes each. Biden is the first Democrat since 1976 to win the presidency without Franklin and Cortland Counties, as well as the first since 1992 without Suffolk County. Biden won 5.2 million votes, the most received by a Democratic presidential candidate in the state's history. Despite this, the New York City boroughs of Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx each swung at least 7% to Donald Trump, with The Bronx swinging 13%.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, garnering 91% of blacks; 70% of Latinos, including 75% of Latinos of Puerto Rican heritage; 58% of Jewish voters; and 56% of union households.[6] Biden carried four of the five boroughs of New York City, only losing Staten Island.

Primary elections[edit]

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 28, New York State elections officials moved the primary date to June 23 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[7]

Canceled Republican primary[edit]

On March 3, 2020, the New York Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses. Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to submit the required number of names of his 162 total delegates, both the 94 primary ones and the alternates. Among Trump's major challengers, Bill Weld only submitted about half of his required delegates, and neither Rocky De La Fuente nor Joe Walsh sent in any names at all. With the cancellation, Trump automatically gets to send his 94 New York pledged delegates to the national convention.[8][9]

Democratic primary[edit]

On April 27, 2020, New York State elections officials had decided to cancel the state's Democratic primary altogether, citing the fact that former Vice President Joe Biden was the only major candidate left in the race after all the others had suspended their campaigns, and canceling it would save the state millions of dollars from printing the extra sheet on the ballot.[10] However, on May 5, a federal judge ruled that the Democratic primary must proceed on June 23 after a suit made by former presidential primary candidate Andrew Yang.[11]

Among the other major candidates were entrepreneur Andrew Yang, Kirsten Gillibrand, one of New York's two current senators, and Bill de Blasio, the mayor of New York City. However, on August 29, 2019, Gillibrand dropped out of the race. Bill de Blasio as well dropped out on September 20, 2019, after failing to qualify for the 4th Democratic debate.

Results
2020 New York Democratic presidential primary[12]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[13]
Joe Biden 1,136,679 64.62% 231
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 285,908 16.25% 43
Blank 135,486 7.70%
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 82,917 4.71%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 39,433 2.24%
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 22,927 1.30%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 22,686 1.29%
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 11,028 0.63%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 9,083 0.52%
Void 4,621 0.26%
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 3,040 0.17%
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 2,932 0.17%
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 2,299 0.13%
Total 1,759,039 100% 274

Conservative[edit]

The Conservative Party of New York State cross-endorsed the Republican ticket, nominating Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.[14]

Working Families[edit]

The Working Families Party cross-endorsed the Democratic ticket, nominating Joe Biden for president and Kamala Harris for vice president.[15] Several prominent Democrats, including Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer encouraged voting for Biden and Harris on the WFP line, in order for the party to keep ballot access.[16]

Green[edit]

The Green Party of New York nominated the national Green Party ticket; Howie Hawkins for president and Angela Nicole Walker for vice president.

Libertarian primary[edit]

The Libertarian Party of New York nominated the national Libertarian Party ticket; Jo Jorgensen for president and Spike Cohen for vice president.

Independence[edit]

The Independence Party of New York nominated independent candidates Brock Pierce for president and Karla Ballard for vice president.[17]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Safe D November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[19] Safe D November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Safe D November 3, 2020
Politico[21] Safe D November 3, 2020
RCP[22] Safe D November 3, 2020
Niskanen[23] Safe D November 3, 2020
CNN[24] Safe D November 3, 2020
The Economist[25] Safe D November 3, 2020
CBS News[26] Likely D November 3, 2020
270towin[27] Safe D November 3, 2020
ABC News[28] Safe D November 3, 2020
NPR[29] Likely D November 3, 2020
NBC News[30] Safe D November 3, 2020
538[31] Safe D November 3, 2020

Polling[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics April 30 – September 29, 2020 November 3, 2020 59.7% 31.0% 9.3% Biden +28.7
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 62.3% 32.9% 4.8% Biden +29.4
Average 61.0% 32.0% 7.1% Biden +29.1

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 6,548 (LV) ± 2% 35%[c] 63%
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 34% 64% - - 2%[d] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 10,220 (LV) 34% 63% - -
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 495 (LV) ± 5.8% 33% 65% 1% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 10,007 (LV) 34% 64% - - 2%
Siena College Sep 27–29, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 29% 61% 0% 1% 2%[e] 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 9,969 (LV) 34% 64% - - 2%
Public Policy Polling Aug 20–22, 2020 1,029 (V) ± 3.1% 32% 63% - - 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 10,280 (LV) 34% 63% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 4,555 (LV) 33% 65% - - 2%
Siena College Jun 23–25, 2020 806 (RV) ± 3.9% 32% 57% - - 10%
Siena College May 17–21, 2020 767 (RV) ± 3.7% 32% 57% - - 11%
Quinnipiac University Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 915 (RV) ± 3.2% 32% 55% - - 5%[f] 8%
Siena College Apr 19–23, 2020 803 (RV) ± 3.7% 29% 65% - - 6%
Siena College Mar 22–26, 2020 566 (RV) ± 4.5% 33% 58% - - 10%
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 55% - - 5%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 33% 58% 9%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 37% 56% 7%

with Donald Trump and Bill de Blasio

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bill
de Blasio (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Jun 2–6, 2019 812 (RV) ± 4.1% 36% 48% 13% 3%

with Donald Trump and Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Jun 2–6, 2019 812 (RV) ± 4.1% 34% 58% 5% 3%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 37% 53% 10%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 56% 7%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Siena College Feb 16–20, 2020 658 (RV) ± 4.5% 39% 53% 8%

Electoral slates[edit]

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[32]

Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic Party
Working Families Party
Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party
Conservative Party
Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Howie Hawkins and
Angela Walker
Green Party
Brock Pierce and
Karla Ballard
Independence Party
June O'Neill
Xiao Wang
Katherine M. Sheehan
Thomas J. Garry
Lovely Warren
Gary S. LaBarbera
Stuart H. Applebaum
Mary Sullivan
George K. Gresham
Randi Weingarten
Mario F. Cilento
Alphonso David
Hazel Nell Dukes
Christine Quinn
Byron Brown
Corey Johnson
Scott Stringer
Andrea Stewart-Cousins
Carl Heastie
Jay Jacobs
Letitia James
Thomas DiNapoli
Kathy Hochul
Andrew Cuomo
Hillary Clinton
Bill Clinton
Rubén Díaz Jr.
Judith Hunter
Anastasia Somoza
Brendan Lantry
Jesus Garcia
Susan McNeil
Joseph Cairo
William Napier
Karl Simmeth
Christine Benedict
Joann Ariola
Carl Zeilman
Jennifer Saul Rich
Charlie Joyce
Adrian Anderson
Rob Ortt
Will Barclay
John Burnett
Chloe Sun
Elie Hirschfeld
Yechezkel Moskowitz
Shaun Marie Levine
Christopher Kendall
Francis Vella-Marrone
Andrea Catsimatidis
John Gereau
Rodney Strange
Todd Rouse
Trisha Turner
Robert Keis
Nick Langworthy
Tom Dadey
Daniel P. Donnelly
Duane J. Whitmer
Robert M. Arrigo
Mark N. Axinn
Erin M. Becker
Rachel E. Becker
Richard Bell
Kari R. Bittner
Mark S. Braiman
Jay A. Carr
Tucker C. Coburn
Anthony D'Orazio
Kevin A. Wilson
Milva E. Dordal
Pietro S. Geraci
Paul M. Grindle
Mark E. Glogowski
Shawn Hannon
Andrew M. Kolstee
Peyton D. Kunselman
Brandon G. Lyon
Leonard E. Morlock
Lora L. Newell
Gary Popkin
Thomas D. Quiter
Ilya Schwartzburg
Paul C. Sechrist
Larry Sharpe
William C. Anderson
Stephen Bloom
Peter A. Lavenia
Cassandra J. Lems
Paul W. Gilman
Darin Robbins
Barbara A. Kidney
Joseph R. Naham
Michael E. O'Neil
Eric M. Jones
Carol S. Przybylak
Tatianna M. Moragne
James R. Brown III
James McCabe
Candace Carponter
Michael D. Emperor
Jennifer R. White
Allan D. Hunter
Mary B. House
Serena L. Seals
David Sutliff-Atias
Craig A. Seeman
Daneilla Liebling
Adrienne R. Craig-Williams
Christopher J. Archer
Claudia Flanagan
Gil Obler
Debra A. Rosario
Gloria Mattera
David L. Giannascoli
Kenneth Bayne
Scott R. Major
Robert G. Pilnick
Barbara Pilnick
Gary P. Newman
Arthur Abbate
Joseph W. Fuller
Maryann H. Major
Andrew J. Bogardt
Anna C. Bogardt
Robert J. Bogardt
Trisha L. Sterling
Thomas Hatfield
Thomas A. Connolly
Atef S. Zeina
Lee Kolesnikoff
Joseph L. Baruth
Paul E. Caputo
Edward G. Miller
Thomas S. Connolly
Dennis R. Zack
Michael Amo
Richard S. Bellando
Maryellen Bellando
William Bogardt
Teresa Bogardt
Frank M. MacKay
Kristin A. MacKay
Carolyn P. Major

Results[edit]

Waiting in line for early voting

New York's inexperience processing a large number of mail ballots, having only legalized no-excuse absentee voting in 2019, led to ballots taking weeks to count.[33][5] Over two million ballots and over 20% of the votes were cast by mail.[34] New York failed to meet its November 28 deadline to certify the election, with hundreds of thousands of votes still uncounted.[35] State Senator Michael Gianaris commented, "if we were a swing state in this presidential election, this would be a national scandal".[36]

The delay in the counting of mail-in ballots wrongly made it seem at first that Biden had underperformed Hillary Clinton in 2016, a phenomenon some commentators called a "red mirage."[37] However, when all votes were counted, Biden exceeded Clinton's margin over Trump by about 0.6 percentage points. This was due to improved performance in Upstate New York and on Long Island. Meanwhile, four of New York City's five boroughs shifted towards Trump, Staten Island being the exception.

Donald Trump is the first Republican to receive 3 million or more raw votes in New York since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden flipped 4 counties that Trump won in 2016: Broome, Essex, Rensselaer, and Saratoga counties.[39][40] Biden also came very close to flipping an additional six counties, as he lost Cortland County by 420 votes, Franklin County by 415 votes, Ontario County by 14 votes, Orange County by 312 votes, Suffolk County by 232 votes, and Warren County by just 57 votes.[41] Trump's narrow victories in these counties meant that they were decided by a combined total of just 1450 votes out of more than 1 million votes cast across all five counties. According to exit polls by CNN, Biden won 96% of Democrats, who were 41% of the electorate, 59% of Independents, who made up 32% of voters, and 21% of Republicans, who made up 27% of the vote.[42]
2020 United States presidential election in New York[38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
4,844,975 56.37 -0.35%
Working Families Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
386,010 4.49 +2.68%
Total Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
5,230,985 60.86 +1.85%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
2,949,141 34.31 +1.58%
Conservative Donald Trump
Mike Pence
295,657 3.44 -0.35%
Total Donald Trump
Mike Pence
3,244,798 37.75 +1.23%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
60,234 0.70 -0.04%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
32,753 0.38 -1.02%
Independence Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
22,587 0.26 -1.28%
Write-in 3,469 0.04 -0.75%
Total votes 8,594,826 100.00% +11.31%

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[edit]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  5. ^ Pierce (I) with 2%, "someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%

References[edit]

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "New York Election Results". New York Times. Retrieved November 10, 2020.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ Choi, Matthew (October 31, 2019). "Trump, a symbol of New York, is officially a Floridian now". Politico. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
  5. ^ a b Ferré-Sadurní, Luis (August 20, 2020). "New York Will Allow Voters to Cast Mail-In Ballots". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  6. ^ "New York Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  7. ^ "New York presidential primary postponed amid record numbers of coronavirus cases". ABC News. March 28, 2020.
  8. ^ "New York might cancel Republican presidential primary". Politico. February 28, 2020.
  9. ^ "New York cancels Republican presidential primary". Politico. March 3, 2020.
  10. ^ "New York cancels Democratic presidential primary". Politico. April 28, 2020.
  11. ^ "Judge rules New York Democratic presidential primary will take place as planned". CNN. May 6, 2020.
  12. ^ "Certified Results from the June 23, 2020 Presidential Primary Election" (PDF). New York State Board of Elections. September 18, 2020. Retrieved September 20, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: New York Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 3, 2020.
  14. ^ Reisman, Nick (August 31, 2020). "NY Conservative Party Backs Trump's Re-Election". NY1. Retrieved September 10, 2020.
  15. ^ Nichols, John (August 14, 2020). "The Working Families Party Endorses Biden and Harris". The Nation. Retrieved September 10, 2020.
  16. ^ Slattery, Denis (October 26, 2020). "Working Families Party gets support from New Yorkers and U.S. Senators Schumer, Gillibrand". New York Daily News. Retrieved October 29, 2020.
  17. ^ Independence Party of New York (August 24, 2020). "The Independence Party of New York Endorses Brock Pierce for President of the United States". PR Newswire. Retrieved September 10, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  22. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  23. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  24. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  25. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  28. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  30. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  32. ^ "AMENDED Certification for the November 3, 2020 General Election" (PDF). New York Board of Elections. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
  33. ^ "Governor Cuomo Signs Landmark Legislation Modernizing New York's Voting Laws". Governor Andrew M. Cuomo. January 24, 2019. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  34. ^ "NY May Speed Up And Permanently Expand Vote-By-Mail, Reform Absentee Count Process". NBC New York. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  35. ^ Bergin, Brigid (November 28, 2020). "NYC Blows Past Deadline To Certify General Election Results As Lawmakers Push Reforms". Gothamist. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  36. ^ Krieg, Gregory; Simko-Bednarski, Evan. "'It's embarrassing': Why New York is still waiting for full election results". CNN. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
  37. ^ Lange, Chris Kahn, Jason (November 3, 2020). "Explainer: Red mirage, blue mirage - Beware of early U.S. election wins". Reuters. Retrieved December 30, 2020.
  38. ^ 2020 Election Results, New York State Board of Elections, December 3, 2020.
  39. ^ "New York Election Results 2016". August 1, 2017 – via NYTimes.com.
  40. ^ "New York Election Results". November 3, 2020 – via NYTimes.com.
  41. ^ "Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins". November 3, 2020 – via NYTimes.com.
  42. ^ "New York 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com.

Further reading[edit]

External links[edit]