Prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

For other uses, see Russo-Ukrainian crisis.

2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis
Part of the Russo-Ukrainian War
US intelligence assessment on the movement of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine as of 3 December 2021. It estimated that Russia had deployed about 70,000 troops, mostly at a distance of 100–200 km from the Ukrainian border. It is estimated that the number could increase to 175,000.
Date 3 March 2021 (2021-03-03) – 22 April 2021; 11 October 2021 (2021-10-11) – present (2 years, 11 months, 2 weeks and 5 days) Location Ukraine Status Ongoing
Belligerents
Ukraine Militarily supported by: Canada Lithuania Poland Spain United Kingdom United States Turkey Belarusian opposition Politically supported by: NATO European Union Azerbaijan Czech Republic Denmark Estonia France Germany Greece Japan Latvia Netherlands	Russia Belarus Donetsk PR Luhansk PR Transnistria
Commanders and leaders
Volodymyr Zelensky Denys Shmyhal Dmytro Kuleba Oleksii Reznikov Andrii Taran Valerii Zaluzhnyi Ruslan Khomchak Supported by: Jens Stoltenberg Joe Biden Antony Blinken Elizabeth II Boris Johnson Justin Trudeau Gitanas Nausėda Alar Karis Kaja Kallas Andrzej Duda Felipe VI Pedro Sánchez Recep Tayyip Erdoğan	Vladimir Putin Mikhail Mishustin Sergey Lavrov Sergey Shoygu Valery Gerasimov Denis Pushilin Vladimir Pashkov Leonid Pasechnik Sergey Kozlov Vadim Krasnoselsky Aleksandr Martynov Alexander Lukashenko Roman Golovchenko Viktor Khrenin Viktor Gulevich Alexander Volfovich
Strength
209,000 Armed Forces, 102,000 Paramilitary, 900,000 Reserve Forces Training mission: 200 (Operation Unifier) 165 (JMTG-U) 53 (Operation Orbital) 40 (JMTG-U) 26 (JMTG-U)	900,000 Armed Forces, 554,000 Paramilitary, 2,000,000 Reserve Forces • including 175,000 at the Ukrainian borders 20,000 14,000 45,350 Armed Forces, 110,000 Paramilitary, 289,500 Reserve Forces

In March and April 2021, Russia massed about 100,000 soldiers and military equipment near its border with Ukraine, representing the highest force mobilization since the country's annexation of Crimea in 2014. This precipitated an international crisis and generated concerns over a potential invasion. Satellite imagery showed movements of armor, missiles, and other heavy weaponry. The troops were partially removed by June. The crisis was renewed in October and November 2021, when more than 100,000 Russian troops were again massed near the border by December.

The ongoing crisis stems from the protracted Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014 and saw an escalation in early 2021. The Russian foreign ministry announced several demands in December 2021, including a prohibition on Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a decrease of NATO soldiers and military equipment in Eastern Europe in exchange for the withdrawal of Russian armed forces. The United States and other NATO members have rejected these requests, and warned Russia of increased economic sanctions should it invade Ukraine. Bilateral U.S.-Russia diplomatic talks were held in January 2022, but did not defuse the crisis.

The crisis has been described by commentators as one of the most intense since the Cold War.

Background

Main articles: Russo-Ukrainian War and Historical background of the Russo-Ukrainian War

See also: Enlargement of NATO and Second Cold War

In February 1954, under the USSR's Communist Party first secretary Nikita Khrushchev, there occurred the transfer of the Crimean Oblast from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR, both constituent republics of the USSR. This move, which was formally enacted by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, was at the time viewed as an insignificant symbolic gesture, as both the Russian SFSR and the Ukrainian SSR were answerable to the USSR's leadership in Moscow. In February 1991, eleven months prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a referendum restored Crimea as an Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, this time within the Ukrainian SSR. In 1992, it became the Autonomous Republic of Crimea of the newly independent Ukraine.

Despite being an independent country since 1991, as a former USSR constituent republic, Ukraine had been perceived by the leadership of the Russian Federation as being part of its sphere of influence. Iulian Chifu and his co-authors in 2009 opined that in regard to Ukraine, Russia pursued an updated version of the Brezhnev Doctrine, which dictates that the sovereignty of Ukraine cannot be larger than that of the Warsaw Pact′s member states prior to the demise of the Soviet sphere of influence.

Following weeks of protests as part of the Euromaidan movement, pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych and the leaders of the parliamentary opposition on 21 February 2014 signed a settlement agreement that called for an early election. The following day, Yanukovych fled from Kyiv ahead of an impeachment vote that stripped him of his powers as president. Leaders of the Russian-speaking eastern regions of Ukraine declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych, causing the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine. The unrest would develop into the War in Donbas, with the Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast declaring independence, as well as the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia.

In July 2021, Russia′s president Vladimir Putin published an essay titled "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", in which he re-affirmed his view that Russians and Ukrainians were "one people". Historian Timothy Snyder has described Putin's ideas as imperialism. Edward Lucas described it as revisionist. Other observers have noted that the Russian leadership has a distorted view of modern Ukraine and its history.

Russia has said that a possible Ukrainian accession to NATO and the NATO enlargement in general threaten its national security. In turn, Ukraine and other European countries neighbouring Russia have accused Putin of attempting to restore the Soviet Empire and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies.

NATO has added 14 new members since the German reunification and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia is strongly opposed to any eastward expansion of NATO.

NATO member countries (blue), countries in the process of accession to NATO (violet) and the Russia-led CSTO (red)

First escalation (March–April 2021)

First Russian military buildup

On 3 March 2021, separatists from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic reported they had been granted permission to use "preemptive fire for destruction" on Ukrainian military positions. Leonid Kravchuk, leader of the Ukrainian delegation of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine (TCG), condemned the statements as a breach of the Minsk agreements. On 16 March, the SBGS border patrol in the Sumy Oblast spotted a Mil Mi-8 helicopter flying from Russia trespassing approximately 50 metres (160 ft) into Ukrainian territory before heading back to Russian airspace. 10 days later, Russian troops fired mortars at Ukrainian positions near the village of Shumy, killing 4 Ukrainian servicemen. Russia has refused to renew the ceasefire in Donbas on 1 April.

Beginning from 16 March, NATO began a series of military exercises known as Defender Europe 2021. The military exercise, one of the largest NATO-led military exercises in Europe for decades, included near-simultaneous operations across over 30 training areas in 12 countries, involving 28,000 troops from 27 nations. Russia has criticized NATO for holding Defender Europe 2021. It has deployed troops to its western borders for military exercises in response to NATO's military activities.

On 24 March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed Decree 117/2021 approving the "strategy of de-occupation and reintegration" of the Russian-occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.

By 30 March, Colonel general Ruslan Khomchak, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine revealed intelligence reports suggesting a military buildup by the Russian Armed Forces on the outskirts of Ukraine in preparations for the Zapad 2021 exercise. 28 Russian battalion tactical groups were situated along the Russo-Ukrainian border and the occupied territories (primarily Crimea, Rostov, Bryansk and Voronezh). According to Komchak, the buildup posed a serious threat to Ukraine. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, refuted Ukrainian statements, claiming the military movements 'are not of any concern' for neighboring countries. Instead, the decisions were made to deal on matters of 'national security'.

Between late-March and early-April, the Russian military moved large quantities of arms and equipment from western and central Russia, and as far away as Siberia, into occupied Crimea and the Pogonovo training facility 17 km south of Voronezh. Unofficial Russian sources, notably in the popular Telegram channel Military Observer (affiliated with the Russian security forces), published a video of the flight of a group of Russian Kamov Ka-52 and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters. It has been emphasized by the original sources that the flight allegedly took place on the Russo-Ukrainian border.

Continued violence and escalation

Russian and pro-Kremlin media made allegations on 3 April accusing a Ukrainian drone attack of causing the death of a child in the Russian-occupied part of Donbas. However, no further details were given surrounding the incident. Vyacheslav Volodin , speaker of the Russian State Duma believed that Ukrainian leaders should be "held responsible for the death", while proposing to exclude Ukraine from the Council of Europe. On 5 April, Ukrainian representatives of the Joint Centre of Control and Coordination (JCCC) sent a note to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine regarding pro-Russian intentions by to falsify the accusations. The subsequent day, the mission confirmed the death of a child at Russian-occupied Donbas, but failed to establish a link between the purported "Ukrainian drone strike" with the child's death.

On 6 April, a Ukrainian serviceman was killed as a result of shelling of Ukrainian positions near the town of Nevelske in Donetsk Oblast. Another soldier was killed near Stepne by an unknown explosive device. As a result of the shelling, the water pumping station located in the "gray-zone" between the villages of Vasylivka and Kruta Balka at South Donbas was de-energized, causing the suspension of water supplies at over 50 settlements. Shortly after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Ukraine blocked the flow of the Northern Crimean Canal, which had supplied 85-percent of Crimea's water. Crimea's reservoirs were subsequently depleted and water shortages ensued, with water reportedly only being available for three to five hours a day in 2021. The New York Times has cited senior American officials mentioning securing Crimea's water supply could be an objective of a possible incursion by Russia.

The inter-naval crossing was started by landing and artillery boats of the Caspian Flotilla of the Russian Federation. It is stated that the crews and ships of the Caspian Flotilla will pass the final naval exercises in cooperation with the Black Sea Fleet.

On 10 April, Ukraine incorporated Paragraph 16 of the Vienna Document and initiated a meeting in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) on the surge of Russian troops at regions near the Russo-Ukrainian border and Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine's initiative was supported by several countries, but the Russian delegation failed to appear at the meeting. The delegation has refused to provide explanations.

On 13 April, Ukrainian consul Oleksandr Sosoniuk was detained in Saint Petersburg by the Federal Security Service (FSB), allegedly while "receiving confidential information" during a meeting with a Russian citizen. Sosoniuk was later expelled from Russia. In response, Yevhen Chernikov, a senior Russian diplomat of the Russian embassy in Kyiv, was declared a persona non grata in 19 April in Ukraine and was forced to leave the country within 72 hours.

Russia's Security Council Secretary Mykola Patrushev said at a meeting in annexed Crimea on 14 April that "Ukrainian special services are trying to organize terrorist attacks and sabotage" on the peninsula.

On the night of 14–15 April 2021, an incident took place in the Sea of Azov between three small armored boats "Giurza-M" of the Ukrainian Navy and five boats and a ship of the Coast Guard of the Border Service of the FSB. The incident took place 25 miles from the Kerch Strait, while Navy boats escorted civilian ships. On the part of the Russian Federation, the action was corrected by the FSB Coast Guard ship No. 734, and on its commands the FSB boats performed coordinated provocative maneuvers against the MBAKs. To stop the provocations, the Navy sailors had to warn about the readiness to use airborne weapons. The incident was without any losses for the fleet, all boats of the Ukrainian Navy successfully returned to the harbor.

On 15 April 2021, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the Russian Federation announced the closure from the following week to October 2021 of part of the Black Sea in the Kerch Strait for warships and state vessels of other countries under the pretext of military exercises. In the same statement, the Ministry considered such move a gross violation of the right to freedom of navigation guaranteed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. According to the convention, the Russian Federation must not obstruct or obstruct the transit passage through the International Strait to ports in the Sea of Azov.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in mid-April 2021 that Russia had concentrated more troops near the border with Ukraine than in 2014.

Russia reportedly imposed temporary restrictions on flights over parts of Crimea and the Black Sea from 20–24 April 2021, as stated in an international report for pilots.

On 22 April 2021, Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoygu announced a drawdown of military exercises with troops from the 58th and 41st Army, and the 7th, 76th, and 98th Guards Airborne Division returning to their permanent bases by May 1after inspections in the Southern and Western military districts. Equipment at the Pogonovo training facility were to remain for the annual military exercise with Belarus in September 2021.

Renewed escalation (October 2021–present)

On 11 October 2021, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev published an article on Kommersant, in which he argued that Ukraine was a "vassal" of the West and that, therefore, it was pointless for the Russian Federation to attempt to dialogue with the Ukrainian authorities, whom he described as “weak”, “ignorant” and “unreliable”. The Kremlin later specified that Medvedev’s article “runs in unison” with Russia’s view of the current Ukrainian government.

In November 2021, the Russian Defense Ministry described the deployment of the U.S. warships to the Black Sea as a "threat to regional security and strategic stability." The ministry said in a statement, "The real goal behind the U.S. activities in the Black Sea region is exploring the theatre of operations in case Kyiv attempts to settle the conflict in the southeast by force."

Second Russian military buildup

On 13 November 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Russia has again amassed 100,000 troops in the border area, higher than the U.S. assessment of about 70,000. In early November, reports of Russian military buildups prompted U.S. officials to warn the EU that Russia could be planning a potential invasion of Ukraine.

On 21 November 2021, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Russia had concentrated more than 92,000 troops and Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems near the Ukrainian borders. Budanov said that Russia was behind the protests against vaccination against COVID-19 in Kyiv and other protest rallies in Ukraine to destablize Ukraine and prepare for a large-scale military invasion. According to Budanov, active actions should be expected in late January – early February 2022.

On 1 December 2021, Russia accused Ukraine of deploying half its army – about 125,000 troops – in Donbas to confront pro-Russian separatists. In November and December 2021, Kremlin officials claimed that Ukraine had violated the Minsk peace agreements. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied any "unusual military activity" or a possible invasion of Ukraine, accused Ukraine of "planning aggressive actions against Donbas" and urged NATO to stop "concentrating a military fist" near Russia's borders and arming Ukraine with modern weapons. Putin criticized Ukraine for using Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones against pro-Russian separatists in Donbas. Russia accused Ukraine of moving heavy artillery towards the front line where separatists are fighting with Ukrainian forces, and accused Ukraine of taking "provocations."

On 3 December, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov, speaking to the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, said: "There is a possibility of a large-scale escalation on the part of Russia. The most likely time to achieve readiness for escalation will be the end of January." In early December 2021, Janes analysis concluded that major elements of the Russian 41st Army (headquartered at Novosibirsk) and the 1st Guards Tank Army (normally deployed around Moscow) had been repositioned to the west, reinforcing the Russian 20th Guards and 8th Guards armies already positioned closer to the Ukrainian border. Additional Russian forces were reported to have moved into Crimea reinforcing Russian naval and ground units already deployed there.

U.S. intelligence officials warned in December 2021 that Russia was planning a major military offensive into Ukraine in January 2022.

Beginning in January 2022, the Russians began a slow evacuation of personnel from its embassy in Kyiv; it was unclear if the withdrawals of the personnel were "part propaganda, part preparation for a conflict or part feint" or some combination.

By mid-January 2022, a Ukrainian Defense Ministry's intelligence assessment estimated that the Russians had almost completed a military buildup on the Ukrainian border, amassing 127,000 troops in the region (of which 106,000 were Russian Armed Forces land group forces and the remaining being sea and air forces) and further supporting more than 35,000 Russian-backed separatist forces and 3,000 Russian forces in rebel-held eastern Ukraine. The assessment estimated that Russia had deployed 36 Iskander medium-range ballistic missile systems near the Ukrainian borders of Ukraine, each with a range of 500–700 km (310–430 miles), many stationed within striking distance of Kyiv. The assessment also reported intensified Russian intelligence and combat sustainment units, such as movements of ammunition and field hospitals.

On 18 January 2022, Russian troops were reported to have sent an unspecified number of troops into Belarus. The official reason was to conduct war games with Belarus in the following month, however several officials from Ukraine and the White House stated that the troop presence in Belarus would be used to attack Ukraine from the north, especially since the Ukrainian capital Kyiv is located very close to the Belarusian–Ukrainian border.

On 19 January 2022, U.S. President Biden predicted that Russia "will move in" to Ukraine but that Putin would pay "a serious and dear price" for an invasion and would regret it. Biden added, "It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do. But if they actually do what they're capable of doing with the forces amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine." The implication of Biden's comments being that NATO allies were split on the question of how to respond to a "minor incursion" into Ukraine. Ukrainian officials and some world leaders and U.S. Congress members criticized Biden's "minor incursion" comment for implying that lower-level Russian aggression would not be met with a forceful response. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote, "We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and small nations. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones." The next day the U.S. administration clarified Biden's comments, with Biden saying: "he has been “absolutely clear with President Putin. He has no misunderstanding. If any — any — assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion ... It would be met with severe and coordinated economic response."

On 20 January, Russia announced plans to hold major navy drills from the Pacific to the Atlantic containing 140 warships and support vessels, 60 planes and 10,000 soldiers.

On 22 January, the British government publicly alleged that Russia was organizing a plan to supplant Ukraine's government via military force and install a pro-Russian administration in the country, specifically naming Yevheniy Murayev, a former member of the Ukrainian parliament, as the potential new leader. Murayev denied any such plan and the Russian government denied the allegation, saying it was "evidence that it is the NATO countries, led by the Anglo-Saxons, that are escalating tensions around Ukraine."

In an interview to The Washington Post in January 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian forces could invade and take control of regions in eastern Ukraine, such as the Kharkiv Oblast; he also argued that an invasion would lead to a large-scale war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

Alleged Russian sabotage and intelligence operations

See also: 2022 Ukraine cyberattack and Russian-Ukrainian information war

File:HackedForeignMinistry.png

The vandalism of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website by hackers as seen during the 2022 Ukraine cyberattack. The message reads (in part):"Ukrainian! All your personal data was uploaded to the public network. All data on the computer is destroyed, it is impossible to restore it"..."All information about you has become public, be afraid and expect the worst. This is for your past, present and future."

On 26 November 2021, Ukrainian president Zelensky accused Russia and Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov of backing a plan to overthrow his government. Russia denied any involvement in a coup plot. In December 2021, Zelensky called for preemptive action against Russia.

On 10 January 2022, the Ukrainian government announced that it had arrested an alleged Russian military intelligence agent who was attempting to recruit others to conduct attacks in the Ukrainian city of Odessa. Later, on 14 January, Ukraine was struck by a cyberattack against the websites of the Ukrainian foreign affairs ministry, education ministry, and others; the perpetrators were suspected to be Russian hackers. On the same day, Ukrainian military intelligence said that special services of Russia were preparing "provocations" against Russian soldiers stationed in Transnistria, a breakaway unrecognized state internationally considered to be part of Moldova, to create a pretext for a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In January 2022, the United States said that the Russian government had deployed saboteurs to eastern Ukraine to stage an incident (specifically, a fabricated attack on Russian proxy separatists in eastern Donetsk and Luhansk) to provide Putin with a pretext for an renewed invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. said that the Russian operatives were trained in urban warfare and explosives. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the U.S. claim as "total disinformation."

Ukrainian defenses

In preparation of a possible renewed Russian invasion in April 2021, the Ukrainian Ground Forces announced a meeting of terrorist defense to strengthen and protect the state border, protect and defend critical facilities and combat sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the southern border areas of Ukraine. The same month, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi visited the positions on the front line of defense, where the largest number of violations of the comprehensive and permanent ceasefire regime was recorded. The head of state talked to servicemen serving in combat positions. Defenders told the President about the situation at the front.

The United States estimated in December 2021 that Russia could assemble 175,000 troops to invade Ukraine. Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that "we have 250,000 official ... members of our army. Plus, I said 400,000 veterans and 200,000 reservists. 175,000 (is) not enough to go to Ukraine." Reznikov said that Russia could launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine in late January 2022.

Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces (the reserve component of the army established after the 2014 Russian invasion) recruited additional citizens and trained them in urban guerrilla tactics and firearm use. Such insurgency tactics could support a resistance movement if the Russian military (which enjoys overwhelming numeric advantages) is able to overwhelm the Ukrainian military. Andriy Zagorodnyuk, who served as Ukraine's defense minister from 2019 to 2020, wrote in January 2022 that if the Russian military invaded, it would likely destroy "key elements of the country's military infrastructure" and "will be able to advance deep into Ukrainian territory" but would face difficulty in actually holding the territory. Zagorodnyuk wrote that: "Russian occupation forces will face highly motivated opponents fighting in familiar surroundings. By combining serving military units with combat veterans, reservists, territorial defense units, and large numbers of volunteers, Ukraine can create tens of thousands of small and highly mobile groups capable of attacking Russian forces. This will make it virtually impossible for the Kremlin to establish any kind of administration over occupied areas or secure its lines of supply."

Foreign support to Ukraine

A U.S. airman of the 436th Aerial Port Squadron at Dover Air Force Base prepares weapons and ammunition to be delivered to Ukraine, 21 January 2022

In response to threats of a renewed invasion by Russia and the amassing of about 100,000 Russian troops of the Ukrainian border, the U.S. and other NATO nations provided aid to Ukraine to assist the nation in bolstering its defenses. The first shipment of some 200,000 pounds of military equipment arrived in Ukraine in January 2022. The U.S. provided Ukraine with Javelin antitank missiles, other anti-armor artillery, heavy machine guns, small arms and ammunition, secure radio systems, medical equipment and spare parts. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley threatened U.S. support for an anti-Russian insurgency within Ukraine, similar to the CIA's assistance to anti-Soviet mujahideen rebels in Afghanistan in the 1980s. According to James Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander at NATO, "The level of military support" for anti-Russian guerrilla fighters in Ukraine "would make our efforts in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union look puny by comparison."

In December 2021, US administration approved an additional $200 million defense aid to Ukraine. This was in addition to already allocated aid for that, making the total defense aid of $650 million in 2021. The deliveries of the US lethal aid started in January and included .50 BMG calibre ammunition, M141 Bunker Defeat Munition and FGM-148 Javelin systems. US also intends to transfer Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine, previously used by Afghan Air Force. The Biden administration approved deliveries of U.S.-made Stinger surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine.

In January 2022, the Biden administration also granted permission to the Baltic nations (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) to transfer U.S.-made equipment to Ukraine. Estonia donated FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, while Latvia and Lithuania provided FIM-92 Stinger air defense systems and associated equipment.

Other NATO members also provided aid to Ukraine. Prexisting UK and Canadian military training programs were bolstered in January 2022, with the British deploying additional military trainers and providing light anti-armor defense systems, and the Canadians deploying a small special forces delegation to aid Ukraine. On 17 January 2022, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced that Britain had supplied Ukraine with 1,100 short-range anti-tank missiles. On 20 January, Sky News reported that 2,000 short-range anti-tank MBT LAW missiles had been delivered via numerous Royal Air Force C-17 transport aircraft flying back and forth between the UK and Ukraine.

On 16 January, the Danish government decided to provide a €22 million defense package for Ukraine.

The Dutch and Spanish governments also deployed forces to the region in support of NATO. On 20 January 2022, Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles announced that the Spanish Navy was being deployed to the Black Sea. The Meteoro ship acting as a minesweeper was already in route and the frigate Blas de Lezo sailed on 22 January. She also announced that the Spanish government was considering deploying the Air Force to Bulgaria. On 21 January 2022 the Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wopke Hoekstra, said that the Netherlands was ready to deliver "defensive military support" to Ukraine. He explained that Ukraine had asked the Netherlands for arms assistance on 20 January 2022. A parliamentary majority supported sending weapons to the country. Furthermore, the Netherlands said it would send two F-35s to Bulgaria as part of NATO's expanded air surveillance mission.

Diplomatic overtures

See also: Minsk Protocol and Normandy Format

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Brussels, 16 December 2021

On 2–3 November 2021, CIA director William Burns met with senior Russian intelligence officials at Moscow to convey to the Kremlin Biden's concern about the situation on the border with Ukraine. Following the trip, Burns spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a bid to ease tensions between Moscow and Kyiv, according to a CNN report. Simultaneously, a high-ranking State Department official was dispatched to Ukraine.

On 15 November, acting German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian expressed concern in a joint communique about "the movements of Russian forces and military equipment near Ukraine," calling on both sides to "show restraint." At the same time, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby confirmed that the United States continues to observe "unusual military activity" of the Russian Federation near the borders of Ukraine, and the head of the State Department Antony Blinken discussed reports of "Russian military activity" in the area with Jean-Yves Le Drian. It was reported that the United States is discussing sanctions with European allies in case of further Russian invasion. On 16 November, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on the West to send Russia "a clear signal calling for reducing tension, avoiding any escalation in and around Ukraine." Stoltenberg added that the alliance records an "unusual concentration" of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border.

In early November 2021, Ukrainian intelligence assessed the information about the transfer of additional Russian troops to the Ukrainian borders to be "an element of psychological pressure." A week later, the Office of the President of Ukraine acknowledgeded that the Russia was building up "specific groups of troops" near the border. Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the French and German governments to prepare for a possible military scenario of Russia's actions in the Ukrainian direction.

Ukraine intensified diplomatic efforts. On 15 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the head of the European Council Charles Michel discussed "the security situation along the borders of Ukraine." On the same day, Dmytro Kuleba held talks on the same issues in Brussels. The new head of the Defense Ministry, Oleksii Reznikov, went to Washington D.C., where on 18 November he met with U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd Austin. On 16 November, British defence secretary Ben Wallace visited Kyiv.

Israel maintains strong relationship with both with Ukraine and with Russia, and has sometimes acted as an interlocutor between the two nations. In April 2021 Volodymyr Zelensky asked the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to mediate between him and Vladimir Putin. The Israelis raised the idea with the Russians, who declined the request. In a meeting in Kyiv in October 2021 with Ukrainian President Zelensky, Israeli President Isaac Herzog told Zelensky that the new Israeli government under Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was willing to resume efforts at Ukrainian-Russian mediation. Bennett raised the idea in a meeting with Putin two weeks later in Sochi, but Putin declined.

On 21 January 2022 the Communist Party of the Russian Federation announced on Pravda that its deputies would introduce a resolution in the State Duma to ask President Putin to officially recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic.

A Normandy Format meeting was planned between Russian, Ukrainian, German and French senior officials in Paris for 25 or 26 January 2022.

NATO–Russia security talks

See also: Russia–NATO relations

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman meets with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in Geneva on 10 January 2022

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva, Switzerland, on 21 January 2022

On 7 December 2021, Joseph Biden and Vladimir Putin talked by videoconference. One of the topics discussed was the crisis over Ukraine, the Russian side issuing a statement that said Putin highlighted the fact that it was "NATO that was undertaking dangerous attempts to develop Ukrainian territory and increase its potential along [Russia′s] borders"; he demanded "reliable, legal guarantees" that would preclude NATO from expanding its territory toward Russia or deploying its strike weapon systems in countries bordering Russia.

On 15 December 2021, Moscow formally handed over to the U.S. its draft treaties on security guarantees whereby the U.S. would undertake not to deploy troops in ex-Soviet states that are not NATO members, rule out any further expansion of the Alliance eastward, and NATO would, among other things, undertake not to deploy any forces in other countries in addition to that which were deployed as of 27 May 1997.

On 28 December 2021, the U.S. and Russia announced bilateral talks would take place in Geneva on 10 January 2022, to discuss concerns about their respective military activity and to confront rising tensions over Ukraine, the Russian side seeking security guarantees from the U.S. and NATO. The talks were led by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.

Biden and Putin had a 50-minute phone call on 30 December 2021; on the call, Biden urged Putin to de-escalate in Ukraine. Biden said that the U.S. did not plan to deploy offensive weapons in Ukraine, and warned that if Russia continued aggression against Ukraine, it would lead to "serious costs and consequences" such as the U.S. imposing additional economic sanctions on Russia, increasing U.S. military presence in the eastern members of NATO, and increased assistance to Ukraine. According to Putin′s aide, Putin, in turn, responded by saying that imposing new U.S. sanctions against Russia would "cause a total severance of relations" between Russia and the U.S. as well as the West at large. The following day, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the question about what Russia expected in response to its "security guarantees" proposals by saying, "[...] we will not allow anyone to drag out our initiatives in endless discussions. If a constructive response does not follow within a reasonable time and the West continues its aggressive course, Russia will be forced to take every necessary action to ensure a strategic balance and to eliminate unacceptable threats to our security."

The Geneva meeting was followed by a meeting of the NATO–Russia Council in Brussels on 12 January that brought together all 30 NATO members and Russia to discuss, according to the official statement issued by NATO, "the situation in and around Ukraine, and the implications for European security"; the Russian ministry of defence's statement following the meeting said, "[Russia] brought Russian assessments of the current state in the field of euro-security, and also gave explanations on the military aspects of the Russian draft agreement on security guarantees". The talks were judged by Russia to be unsuccessful. Following the meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that, with respect to Ukraine's potential accession to NATO, all NATO Allies were "united on the core principle that each and every nation has the right to choose his own path" and "Russia doesn't have a veto on whether Ukraine can become a NATO member. ... at the end of the day, it has to be NATO Allies and Ukraine that decides on membership."

On 21 January in Geneva Lavrov and secretary of state Antony Blinken held a meeting that Blinken emphasised "was not a negotiation but a candid exchange of concerns and ideas". Following the meeting, Blinken said that the U.S. had made clear to Russia that its renewed invasion would "be met with swift, severe and a united response from the United States and our partners and allies"; Lavrov said they were still waiting for a formal written response to their original demands of security guarantees from the U.S.

Reactions

Main article: Reactions to 2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on 2 December 2021

Domestic

• Russia – The Kremlin has repeatedly denied that it has any plans to invade Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed such fears as "alarmist". Sergei Naryshkin, director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, dismissed reports of a possible invasion of Ukraine asserting that it was "malicious propaganda by the US State Department". On 30 November 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that an expansion of NATO's presence in Ukraine, especially the deployment of any long-range missiles capable of striking Russian cities or missile defense systems similar to those in Romania and Poland, would be a "red line" issue for Russia.

• Ukraine – In an interview with the French newspaper Libération in April 2021, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that provocations by Russia with the relocation of troops to the border with Ukraine and the aggravation of the situation in the east are the most serious since the attack on Ukrainian sailors in the Kerch Strait in November 2018. At the same time, the current threat from Russia was more dangerous. In November 2021, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence, said that Russia was preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February 2022. In January 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video message that the country's citizens should not panic and appealed to the media to be "methods of mass information and not mass hysteria."

International states and organisations

• Albania and Kosovo – Albanian Armed Forces Colonel Ardian Lulaj and Kosovar Head of Strategic Communication Colonel Sefer Isufi both stated in early December 2021 that their respective countries would be willing to deploy Albanian Armed Forces and Kosovo Security Forces in a putative future mission in Ukraine should the US decide to lead such an endeavor.

• Belgium – On 24 January, Belgian Chief Head of Defense Michel Hofman stated that Belgian forces are on standby in the Baltic, and prepared "to intervene within a certain amount of time, but today it is too early to say where and how" should the situation escalate.

• Bulgaria – In early January, Bulgarian Minister of Defense Stefan Yanev responded to a parliamentary question on the deployment of additional military units in Bulgarian territory that Bulgaria opposes "escalation of military measures before all other diplomatic means are used" and that Bulgaria had as of yet "no national position" on the situation. On 21 January, Bulgarian Foreign Minister Kiril Petkov condemned the Russian call for Bulgaria to leave NATO and for NATO troops to be withdrawn from Bulgaria and Romania, while President Rumen Radev called the statement "unacceptable".

• Canada – In January 2022, the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau stated that Canada would provide Ukraine with a CDN$120 million loan, but will not transfer military equipment.

• China – Chinese leader & CCP general secretary Xi Jinping supported Russia's demand that Ukraine must never join NATO. On 14 January 2022, a spokesman of China’s Foreign Ministry emphasized that all countries should observe a traditional UN Olympic Truce resolution "from seven days before the start of the Olympic Games until seven days after the end of the Paralympic Games", referring to both the upcoming 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games taking place from 4 February 2022 to 20 February 2022 as well as the upcoming 2022 Beijing Winter Paralympic Games taking place from 4 March 2022 to 13 March 2022. Under this timeframe, the proposed truce resolution would thusly begin on 28 January 2022 and conclude on 20 March 2022.

• Croatia – On 25 January 2022, Croatia′s president Zoran Milanović, who has no executive powers in the country′s political system, noting what he called Nato′s military build-up in the region and the Biden administration′s "inconsistency" in international security affairs and stressing his role as Croatia′s commander-in-chief, told the press, "We do not have any bearing on this and we will not have anything to do with this. I guarantee this. Croatia will not send any troops in case of an escalation. On the contrary, it will recall all troops, to the last Croatian soldier." Milanović went on to say that an "arrangement to meet Russia′s security interests" ought to be found and that the acute crisis over Ukraine was "primarily determined by the dynamics of the U.S. domestic politics".
• Denmark – On 13 January 2022, Denmark sent four F-16 fighter jets and a frigate with a crew of 160 people to the Baltic states to reinforce the NATO Enhanced Forward Presence and patrol the sea.
• Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – On 10 January 2022, Lithuanian State Defense Council was convened to discuss the Russian-Ukrainian tensions. In response to the aggressive Russian military behaviour, the council decided to increase the number of troops and speed up military modernization plans. On 17 January, Latvia increased the military presence in the eastern part of the country. On 19 January, the Prime Minister of Estonia announced an extraordinary increase of defense spending by €380 million for the current fiscal year. The Baltic states also decided to accelerate their own acquisition of arms, including the joint rocket artillery system. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have also requested to increase the military deployments of NATO and American troops in the Baltics in order to deter the aggressive Russian behaviour.

• EU – On 24 January 2022, due to the conflict, the European Commission proposed €1.2 billion financial aid for Ukraine in grants and loans.

• Finland and Sweden – Russian proposals that NATO would not accept new members received strong criticism by Sweden and Finland who have been maintaining neutrality. In January 2022, both President of Finland Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin insisted on Finland's right to decide what alliances it can join. Sweden expressed the same position that it is only up to the Swedish people to decide whether Sweden should join NATO. Russian threats have sparked the debate in both countries whether they should apply for NATO membership. On 13 January, Swedish Armed Forces announced that they were deploying troops to the strategic island of Gotland, as a response to unusual Russian military activity.

• France – French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian noted that France, like Ukraine, is anxiously monitoring the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders of our country and the temporarily occupied territories. He assured of France's continued support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The head of French diplomacy especially noted Ukraine's prudent and wise actions in the current situation.

• Germany – In April 2021, during a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanded that the Kremlin head reduce its military presence near Ukraine's borders. In December 2021, German chancellor Olaf Scholz warned of "consequences" for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a Russian natural gas pipeline project operated by Gazprom, which delivers natural gas to Germany. In January 2022, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned that "any further escalation would carry a high price for the Russian regime — economic, political and strategic". Germany has been maintaining the policy of not providing Ukraine with lethal weapons. German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said that Germany wants to "de-escalate" tensions and that supplying weapons would "not be helpful". Ukraine also claimed that the German administration blocks the supply of arms though NATO. On 21 January 2022, it was reported that Germany blocked Estonia from exporting weapons of German-origin.

• Ireland – Due to Russian naval exercises 240 km off Ireland's south-west coast, Ireland's foreign minister Simon Coveney said that Russia is not welcome.

• Japan – Prime Minister of Japan Kishida Fumio said he and Biden would work closely to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine and "keep close contact with other allies and partners and continue communicating on the point that any attack will be met with strong action."In a tweet, Biden said it was "an honor to meet with Prime Minister Kishida to further strengthen the U.S.-Japan Alliance — the cornerstone of peace and security in the Indo-Pacific and around the world."

• NATO – NATO became a flash point in the Russo-Ukrainian crisis. The Russian government has demanded that NATO stop admitting any new members, and is strongly opposed to the potential accession to NATO of Georgia or Ukraine. NATO has repeatedly called upon Russia to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and has condemned Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and the Russia-backed separatists in eastern Donbas, calling for a resolution to the Donbas conflict via the Minsk agreements. In December 2021, as Russia continued a military buildup on Ukraine's borders, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly met with Ukrainian leaders to reaffirm the alliance's support for Ukraine, to call upon NATO members to enhance delivery of defensive weapon systems to Ukraine, and to counter Russian disinformation. NATO and the U.S. have affirmed NATO's "open door" policy, maintaining that countries should freely choose whether to join NATO or not. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that: "No one else has the right to try to veto or interfere in that process. And this is about fundamental principles for European security. It's about the right for every nation to choose their own path." In a January 2021 interview, Stoltenberg reaffirmed NATO's "dual track" approach to Russia, saying, "We are ready to engage in dialogue with Russia, but we will never compromise on core principles for European security....Russia has a choice to either engage in dialogue with NATO and Western allies or choose confrontation. We need to be clear-eyed about the prospect that Russia will — once again — use military force against Ukraine. We will provide support to Ukraine to enable them to strengthen their ability to defend themselves." On 24 January NATO announced it would send additional military forces to its Eastern members, due to the "deteriorating security situation...NATO will continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all allies, including by reinforcing the eastern part of the alliance". Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko condemned the deployments, saying that the military alliance was "demonising Russia" in order to "justify military activity on [NATO’s] eastern flank".

• Poland – Polish prime minister Andrzej Duda announced that Ukraine can count on Polish support if Russia attacks, and called for a unified stance in Europe. On the 21st, the head of National Security Bureau Paweł Soloch stated that "supporting Ukraine is one of the key priorities of President Andrzej Duda's policy", while Duda and Zelenskiy discussed the possibility of further Polish and NATO defensive equipment deliveries.

• Slovakia – The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia, Ivan Korčok, stated that the ceasefire and the announcement of an increase in Russia's military power on the border with Ukraine are a matter of concern and call for de-escalation of tensions.

• Spain – On 20 January, Spain started deploying aircraft, ships and NATO forces to Bulgaria.

• United Kingdom – The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, during a telephone conversation with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that his country was concerned about Russia's activities in the occupied Crimea and on the border with Ukraine. Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab has said that "there is a very significant risk Russia will invade Ukraine" and urged Putin to "step back from the brink". Foreign Secretary Liz Truss wrote on Twitter that the UK "will not tolerate Kremlin plot to install pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine." Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the Chief of the Defence Staff, warned that "a full invasion of Ukraine would be on a scale not seen in Europe since World War Two."

• United States – On 2 April 2021, President Joe Biden had his first telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. On 13 April, Biden had a telephone call with Russian president Putin; Biden "emphasized the United States' unwavering commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity"; Biden also voiced U.S. concern "over the sudden Russian military build-up in occupied Crimea and on Ukraine's borders, and called on Russia to de-escalate tensions." In mid-April 2021, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, along with the EU, UK, Australia, and Canada, sanctioned eight individuals and entities "associated with Russia's ongoing occupation and repression in Crimea." On 19 January 2022, President Biden said that he believed Russia would invade Ukraine. Biden said a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would be "the most consequential thing that's happened in the world in terms of war and peace" since World War Two. On 22 January 2022, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv requested the evacuation of non-essential personnel along with their families by the United States Department of State. The State Department issued an advisory not to travel to Ukraine or Russia, citing ongoing tension along the Russia–Ukraine border and COVID-19.

Vatican – On 23 January 2022, Pope Francis said, "I am following with concern the rising tensions that threaten to inflict a new blow to peace in Ukraine, and call into question the security of the European continent, with even wider repercussions".

Civil society

• Belarus – On 24 January, Belarusian hacktivists stated that they had disrupted Belarusian Railway "servers, databases and workstations" using ransomware, while leaving automation and security systems in place. They promised to decrypt the systems provided that 50 political prisoners were released and that Russian soldiers were prevented from entering Belarus.

See also

• Russia–NATO relations
• Russia–Ukraine relations
• Ukraine–NATO relations
• Cuban Missile Crisis

External links

• Russian draft treaties:
  • Agreement on measures to ensure the security of The Russian Federation and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 17 December 2021, Archived 8 January 2022 at archive.today
  • Treaty between The United States of America and the Russian Federation on security guarantees, 17 December 2021, Archived 18 December 2021 at archive.today