2021 United States gubernatorial elections

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2021 United States gubernatorial elections

← 2020 November 2, 2021
September 14 (California recall)
2022 →

3 governorships
(including a recall election in California)
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Seats before 27 23
Seats up 0 3

2021 California gubernatorial recall electionGubernatorial recall effort against Mike Dunleavy2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election2021 Virginia gubernatorial election2021 United States gubernatorial elections and recall.svg
About this image
  Democratic incumbent
  Term-limited Democrat
  No election
Star indicates a recall election

The 2021 United States gubernatorial elections will be held on November 2, 2021, in two states, New Jersey and Virginia and a recall election in California, on September 14. These elections form part of the 2021 United States elections. The last gubernatorial elections for New Jersey and Virginia were in 2017, the last regular gubernatorial election for California was in 2018. All three seats are currently held by Democrats. Incumbent Virginia Governor Ralph Northam is term-limited, while New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy is running for re-election. Additionally, an unsuccessful special election for whether to recall California Governor Gavin Newsom was held on September 14, 2021.[1][2] More states may hold elections due to a gubernatorial vacancy (depending on a states' constitution) or recall of a governor.

Election predictions[edit]

Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, with the rating indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.

Most election predictors use:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
State PVI Incumbent[3] Last
race
Cook
September 15,
2021
[4]
IE
September 15,
2021
[5]
Sabato
September 15,
2021
[6]
California D+14 Gavin Newsom (D)
(Recall)
61.9% D Likely D Likely D Solid D
New Jersey D+6 Phil Murphy (D) 56.0% D Solid D Solid D Likely D
Virginia D+2 Ralph Northam (D)
(Term-limited)
53.9% D Lean D Likely D Lean D

Race summary[edit]

State Governor Party First elected Last race Status Candidates
California
(recall)
Gavin Newsom Democratic 2018 61.9% D Recall failed.
Democratic hold.
New Jersey Phil Murphy Democratic 2017 56.0% D Renominated
Virginia Ralph Northam Democratic 2017 53.9% D Term-limited

California (recall)[edit]

2021 California gubernatorial recall election

← 2018 September 14, 2021 2022 →

Governor before election

Gavin Newsom
Democratic

Elected Governor

Gavin Newsom
Democratic

Governor Gavin Newsom was elected in 2018 with 61.9% of the vote. In 2020 and 2021, a recall petition gained momentum due to the COVID-19 pandemic in California and Newsom's responses, eventually triggering a recall election.[21][22] The ballot will feature two questions, whether to recall Newsom and who will replace him if he is recalled. Newsom is ineligible to run as a candidate for the second question.

A large number of candidates have announced their intention to replace Newsom. Among the most prominent Republicans in the race include 2018 Republican nominee John H. Cox, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer, media personalities Caitlyn Jenner and Larry Elder, in addition to former U.S. representative Doug Ose.[23][24][25][26][27]

The recall was unsuccessful, and Newsom will remain in office for the rest of his term.

New Jersey[edit]

2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election

← 2017 November 2, 2021 2025 →
  Phil Murphy for Governor (cropped 2).jpg JackCiattarelli (cropped).jpg
Nominee Phil Murphy Jack Ciattarelli
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Sheila Oliver Diane Allen

Incumbent Governor

Phil Murphy
Democratic



Governor Phil Murphy was elected in 2017 with 56% of the vote.[28] He is running for re-election to a second term and was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Republican Jack Ciattarelli was the earliest to announce his candidacy for the governorship in February 2018.[15] He was followed by New Jersey Republican Party chairman Doug Steinhardt, who announced his campaign in December 2020 and withdrew his candidacy the next month.[29][30] Pastor Phil Rizzo and businessman Hirsh Singh ran for the nomination.[31][32] Ciatarelli won the Republican primary.[33]

The Libertarian Party announced activist Gregg Mele as their nominee in March.[34] The Green Party nominated their candidate Madelyn Hoffman at a convention in April.[35] Other minor candidates include Socialist Workers Party nominee Joanne Kuniansky and perennial candidate Ed Forchion of the Legalize Marijuana Party[36] who is running as a write-in after challenges to signatures from the Murphy campaign.

Virginia[edit]

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

← 2017 November 2, 2021 2025 →
  Terry McAuliffe 2020.jpg Glenn Youngkin Headshot.jpg
Nominee Terry McAuliffe Glenn Youngkin
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent Governor

Ralph Northam
Democratic



Governor Ralph Northam was elected in 2017 with 53.9% of the vote.[37] He will be term-limited in 2021, as the Virginia Constitution does not allow governors to serve consecutive terms.

Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, former governor of Virginia Terry McAuliffe, state senator Jennifer McClellan, state delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy, and state delegate Lee Carter announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination for the governorship.[38][39][40] Virginia attorney general Mark Herring previously announced his intention to run for the governorship but withdrew from the race to seek reelection as attorney general.[41] McAuliffe won the Democratic primary by a wide margin despite the large field of candidates.[42]

State senator Amanda Chase announced her candidacy for the Republican nomination for the governorship in February 2020.[43][44] After initially indicating a brief attempt at an independent run because of the state Republicans' decision to hold a convention instead of a primary,[45] Chase later returned to seek her party's nomination once more.[46] Kirk Cox, the former Republican speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates, filed the paperwork to run for the governorship in September 2020.[47] Businessman Glenn Youngkin won the Republican nomination after six rounds of voting at the convention.[48]

Princess Blanding, a teacher and sister of the late Marcus-David Peters, is the newly-founded Liberation Party's gubernatorial candidate.[18]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Kounalakis, Eleni (July 1, 2021). "Lieutenant Governor Kounalakis Declares Special Election". Office of the Lieutenant Governor of California. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
  2. ^ Korte, Lara (July 1, 2021). "Gavin Newsom recall election date set: California voters to cast ballots in September". The Sacramento Bee. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
  3. ^ Parentheses around an incumbent's name indicates that the incumbent is retiring, possibly due to term limits.
  4. ^ "2022 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2021-02-03.
  5. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  6. ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  7. ^ Phillips, Morgan (January 30, 2021). "John Cox says he'll challenge California's Newsom if recall effort succeeds". Fox News. Archived from the original on February 3, 2021. Retrieved February 1, 2021.
  8. ^ Rosenhall, Laurel (July 21, 2021). "Judge puts Larry Elder on recall ballot, throws out tax return requirement". CalMatters.
  9. ^ Marinucci, Carla (February 1, 2021). "Former San Diego mayor to officially launch GOP challenge to Newsom". Politico. Archived from the original on February 3, 2021. Retrieved February 1, 2021.
  10. ^ Markay, Lachlan; Treene, Alayna; Swan, Jonathan. "Caitlyn Jenner files paperwork to run for governor of California". Axios. Retrieved April 23, 2021.
  11. ^ Meghan Roos (July 6, 2021). "California Lawmaker Kevin Kiley Enters Race to Recall Gavin Newsom". Newsweek.
  12. ^ Blood, Michael R. (March 16, 2021). "Former GOP Rep. Doug Ose enters California recall election". Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 17, 2021. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
  13. ^ "Kevin Paffrath, "Meet Kevin" YouTuber, becomes 26th candidate to announce challenge to Newsom". Newsweek. May 17, 2021.
  14. ^ "Hoffman for Governor".
  15. ^ a b "Republican Says He Plans to Run for NJ Governor in 2021". US News & World Report. February 13, 2018.
  16. ^ "Gregg Mele on Instagram: "And so it begins. Path to something big. #libertarian #governor #politics"". Instagram. Retrieved 2021-03-18.
  17. ^ "Gov. Phil Murphy to begin process of running for a second term". News 12 New Jersey. October 2, 2020.
  18. ^ a b Rockett, Ali (December 29, 2020). "Princess Blanding, sister of Marcus-David Peters, announces run for governor". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  19. ^ Brown, Bob (December 8, 2020). "Terry McAuliffe to announce run for governor Wednesday". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
  20. ^ Fordham, Evie (18 February 2021). "Gov hopeful Glenn Youngkin says Virginia wants an outsider: 'I'm tired of the Republican Party losing'". Fox News. Retrieved 18 February 2021.
  21. ^ Martichoux, Alix (February 3, 2021). "Why do people want to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom? We explain". ABC7 Los Angeles. Retrieved February 11, 2021.
  22. ^ Wilson, Reid (March 19, 2021). "What's next in the California recall". The Hill. Archived from the original on March 19, 2021. Retrieved March 25, 2021.
  23. ^ Phillips, Morgan (January 30, 2021). "John Cox says he'll challenge California's Newsom if recall effort succeeds". Fox News. Archived from the original on February 3, 2021. Retrieved February 1, 2021.
  24. ^ Marinucci, Carla (February 1, 2021). "Former San Diego mayor to officially launch GOP challenge to Newsom". Politico. Archived from the original on February 3, 2021. Retrieved February 1, 2021.
  25. ^ Markay, Lachlan; Treene, Alayna; Swan, Jonathan. "Caitlyn Jenner files paperwork to run for governor of California". Axios. Retrieved 2021-04-23.
  26. ^ Blood, Michael R. (March 16, 2021). "Former GOP Rep. Doug Ose enters California recall election". Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 17, 2021. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
  27. ^ Siders, David; White, Jeremy B. (February 12, 2021). "Grenell lays groundwork for California gubernatorial run". Politico PRO. Retrieved April 14, 2021.
  28. ^ "New Jersey Governor race results 2017". CNN. November 7, 2017.
  29. ^ "Doug Steinhardt will run for governor against Phil Murphy". New Jersey Globe. December 10, 2020. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  30. ^ "Steinhardt drops out of GOP gubernatorial race". New Jersey Globe. Sea of Reeds Media. January 11, 2021. Retrieved January 12, 2021.
  31. ^ D'Auria, Peter (February 15, 2021). "Phil Rizzo, pastor at conservative Hudson County church, announces bid for governor". The Jersey Journal. NJ.com.
  32. ^ Wildstein, David (November 9, 2020). "Singh launches bid for Governor against Murphy". New Jersey Globe. Sea of Reeds Media.
  33. ^ "New Jersey Primary Election Results".
  34. ^ Mele, Gregg (March 21, 2021). "(Instagram post)". Instagram. Today Greg accepted the NJLP nomination for Governor.
  35. ^ "Madelyn Hoffman announces her intention to seek nomination for governor of New Jersey in 2021". Weekender NJ. April 7, 2021.
  36. ^ "Joanne Kuniansky, Socialist Workers Party candidate for New Jersey governor, files over 1500 signatures on May 20th at the Office of Elections in Trenton". Insider NJ. May 27, 2021.
  37. ^ "Virginia Governor race results 2017". CNN. November 7, 2017.
  38. ^ Mattingly, Justin. "Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  39. ^ Irby, Sarah. "Delegate Lee Carter announces run for Virginia governor". NBC 12. Gray Television Inc. Retrieved January 1, 2021.
  40. ^ "Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe enters governor's race". AP News. December 9, 2020. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
  41. ^ Vozzella, Laura. "Mark Herring to run again for Virginia attorney general, skipping governor's race". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  42. ^ "Virginia Primary Election Results".
  43. ^ Vozzella, Laura. "Gun-toting state senator expected to announce bid for Virginia governor". Washington Post. Archived from the original on February 15, 2020. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
  44. ^ Tyree, Elizabeth (February 17, 2020). "'I can't take it anymore'; Republican senator announces her bid for governor". WSET. Retrieved May 26, 2020.
  45. ^ Oliver, Ned (December 5, 2020). "Chase promises to run as independent for governor after Va. GOP opts for convention over primary". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  46. ^ "Amanda Chase changes course, says she will participate in a Republican convention". VA Scope. December 11, 2020. Retrieved December 11, 2020.
  47. ^ Vozzella, Laura. "Former speaker Cox takes another step toward a 2021 bid for Virginia governor". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved October 8, 2020.
  48. ^ "Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee Ranked Choice Voting Election Results Visualization". rcvis.com. RCVis. May 11, 2021.