2022 Chilean national plebiscite

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Chilean national plebiscite, 2022
4 September 2022

Do you approve the text of the New Constitution proposed by the Constitutional Convention?
Location Chile

The 2022 Chilean national plebiscite will be held in Chile on 4 September 2022,[1] in order to determine whether the public agrees with the text of a new Political Constitution of the Republic drawn up by the Constitutional Convention, which is why it is also known as an "exit plebiscite".[2]

Election date[edit]

According to the itinerary originally proposed for the constituent process, it was estimated that the plebiscite to approve or reject the text of the new Constitution would take place in September 2021, if the Constitutional Convention met its term of 9 months and did not request the 3-month extension, or in March 2022, if it requested such an extension.[3] In addition, the exit plebiscite cannot be held 60 days before or after another election, nor can it be held in January or February, which would have placed it on the first Sunday in March if an extension were requested.[4][5]

As a result of the postponement of the first plebiscite to 25 October 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the date of the exit plebiscite was also modified. It was projected to take place during the third quarter of 2022, in September at the latest.[6] In April 2022, it was announced that the referendum will be held on 4 September.[1]

Format[edit]

Article 142 of the 1980 Political Constitution of the Republic of Chile indicates the text that will contain the ballot in the plebiscite:[4]

In the aforementioned plebiscite, the citizens will have an electoral card that will contain the following question [...]: "Do you approve the text of the New Constitution proposed by the Constitutional Convention?". Under the question posed there will be two horizontal stripes, one next to the other. The first one will have the expression "Approve" at the bottom and the second one, the word "Reject", so that the voter can mark his preference over one of the alternatives.

— Political Constitution of the Republic of Chile of 1980, article 142

There is no contingency plan currently in place as to what will happen if the new constitution is rejected. Chilean human rights lawyer Dinka Benítez states that "Given that 80 percent of those who voted in the plebiscite want a new constitution, it seems that Chile … will necessarily have to find a way to have a new constitution" in some form, and that a "reject" vote would not necessarily be a death knell for constitutional reform.[7]

Opinion polls[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading option's colour. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the options in a poll.

Voting intention estimates[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample
size
Approve Reject Lead
Black&White[p 1] 9–11 May 2022 ? 38.1 61.9 –23.8
Cadem[p 2] 4–6 May 2022 705 42.2 57.8 –15.6
Data Influye[p 3] 29 Apr–2 May 2022 1,651 44.6 55.4 –10.8
Criteria[p 4] 28 Apr–2 May 2022 1,640 44.3 55.7 –11.4
Cadem[p 5] 27–29 Apr 2022 703 43.9 56.1 –12.2
Activa[p 6] 25–29 Apr 2022 1,043 42.2 57.8 –15.6
La Cosa Nostra[p 7] 9–26 Apr 2022 600 40.8 59.2 –18.4
Studio Publico[p 8] 23–25 Apr 2022 ? 33.7 66.3 –32.6
UDD[p 9] 24 Apr 2022 ? 43.8 56.2 –12.4
Cadem[p 10] 20–22 Apr 2022 704 44.6 55.4 –10.8
Cadem[p 11] 12–14 Apr 2022 702 45.8 54.2 –8.4
Criteria/Zoom[p 12] 12–14 Apr 2022 ? 49.2 50.8 –1.6
Activa[p 13] 11–14 Apr 2022 1,326 46.7 53.3 –6.6
Cadem[p 14] 6–7 Apr 2022 707 47.0 53.0 –6.0
UDD[p 15] 5–6 Apr 2022 1,002 47.8 52.2 –4.4
Criteria[p 16] 31 Mar–4 Apr 2022 813 47.6 52.4 –4.6
Data Influye[p 17] 1–3 Apr 2022 1,671 50.6 49.4 +1.2
Cadem[p 18] 30 Mar–1 Apr 2022 707 46.5 53.5 –7.0
Activa[p 19] 28 Mar–1 Apr 2022 1,521 47.2 52.8 –5.6
Datavoz[p 20] 15–31 Mar 2022 1,650 46.0 54.0 –8.0
Studio Publico[p 21] 25–28 Mar 2022 914 39.4 60.6 –21.2
Cadem[p 22] 23–25 Mar 2022 704 56.1 43.9 +12.2
UDD[p 23] 22–23 Mar 2022 ? 53.1 46.9 +6.5
Activa[p 24] 18–19 Mar 2022 1,004 54.7 45.3 +9.4
Cadem[p 25] 16–18 Mar 2022 702 58.2 41.8 +16.4
Feedback[p 26] 16–18 Mar 2022 1,804 48.2 51.8 –3.6
Cadem[p 27] 9–11 Mar 2022 708 54.5 45.5 +9.0
UDD[p 28] 7–8 Mar 2022 1,028 52.6 47.4 +5.2
Data Influye[p 29] 3–6 Mar 2022 1,466 59.2 40.8 +18.4
Cadem[p 30] 2–4 Mar 2022 713 54.3 45.7 +8.6
Criteria[p 31] 25–28 Feb 2022 872 63.2 36.8 +26.4
Studio Publico[p 32] 22–28 Feb 2022 1,158 41.8 58.2 –16.4
Cadem[p 33] 23–25 Feb 2022 712 59.5 40.5 +19.0
MORI/FIEL[p 34] 5–16 Feb 2022 1,000 67.9 32.1 +35.8
Cadem[p 35] 9–11 Feb 2022 706 55.3 44.7 +10.6
Datavoz[p 36] 22 Jan–7 Feb 2022 1,413 56.1 43.9 +12.2
Studio Publico[p 37] 25–31 Jan 2022 1,037 53.1 46.9 +6.2
UDD[p 23] 30 Jan 2022 ? 62.7 37.3 +25.4
Cadem[p 38] 26–28 Jan 2022 707 62.9 37.1 +25.8
UDD[p 23] 16 Jan 2022 ? 66.7 33.3 +33.4
UDD[p 23] 28 Nov 2021 ? 56.9 43.1 +13.8
UDD[p 23] 14 Nov 2021 ? 57.8 42.2 +15.6

Voting preferences[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

References[edit]

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Encuesta Black&White: crece rechazo a nueva Constitución y 63% está a favor de que sea redactada por grupo de expertos". Black&White (in Spanish). 12 May 2022. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  2. ^ "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Primera Semana de Mayo" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  3. ^ "Convención Constitucional, Plebiscito, Evaluación del Gobierno, Economía y Pensiones". Data Influye (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  4. ^ "Agenda Criteria - Abril 2022" (PDF). Criteria (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  5. ^ "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Cuarta Semana de Abril" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  6. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano - Abril 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). 1 May 2022. Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  7. ^ a b "Con 14 puntos de ventaja: encuesta de La Cosa Nostra da como posible ganador al Rechazo con una amplia ventaja sobre el Apruebo". The Clinic (in Spanish). 29 April 2022. Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  8. ^ a b "Encuesta Studio Publico" (in Spanish). 28 April 2022. Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  9. ^ a b "Encuesta UDD". UDD (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  10. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Tercera Semana de Abril" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  11. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Segunda Semana de Abril" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  12. ^ a b "La señal de alerta a la Convención: pesimismo sobre el proceso constituyente sube 19 puntos en tres meses y llega a 56%". La Tercera (in Spanish). 24 April 2022. Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  13. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano - Abril 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  14. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Primera Semana de Abril" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). 1 May 2022.
  15. ^ a b "Panel Ciudadano: Rechazo alcanza 36%, Aprueba llega a 33% y constituyentes obtienen baja nota". El Mercurio (in Spanish). 8 April 2022. Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  16. ^ a b "Agenda Criteria - Abril 2022" (PDF). Criteria (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  17. ^ a b "Convención Constitucional, Gobierno y Agenda, 5° Retiro y Tendencias". Data Influye (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  18. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Quinta Semana de Marzo" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  19. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano - Abril 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  20. ^ a b "Parte II: La convención bajo presión". Datavoz (in Spanish). 4 April 2022. Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  21. ^ a b "Contingencia + Convención Constitucional - Marzo 2022" (PDF) (in Spanish).
  22. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Cuarta Semana de Marzo" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Encuesta UDD" (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  24. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano - Marzo 2022" (PDF) (in Spanish).
  25. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Tercera Semana de Marzo" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  26. ^ a b "Informe Encuesta Online Feedback - Marzo 2022". Feedback (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  27. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Segunda Semana de Marzo" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  28. ^ a b "Encuesta: Mayoría optaría por seguir proceso constituyente con otra convención o el Congreso, si ganara el rechazo". El Mercurio (in Spanish). 10 March 2022. Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  29. ^ a b "Convención Constitucional, Nuevo Goberino, Migración y Fin Administración Piñera". Data Influye (in Spanish). 1 May 2022.
  30. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Primera Semana de Marzo" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  31. ^ a b "Agenda Criteria - Febrero 2022" (PDF). Criteria (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  32. ^ a b "Evaluación Mensual Convención Constitucional - Febrero 2022" (PDF). Studio Publico (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  33. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Cuarta Semana de Febrero" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  34. ^ a b "Presentación Barómetro del Trabajo". FIEL (in Spanish). 21 February 2022. Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  35. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Segunda Semana de Febrero" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  36. ^ a b "La convención bajo presión: ¿Cambios en la percepción ciudadana?". Datavoz (in Spanish). 21 March 2022. Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  37. ^ a b "Evaluación Mensual Convención Constitucional - Enero 2022" (PDF). Studio Publico (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
  38. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública - Cuarta Semana de Enero" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 May 2022.
Other
  1. ^ a b Fuentes, Cristóbal (2022-04-05). "Ya hay fecha: plebiscito de salida para votar una nueva Constitución será el 4 de septiembre". La Tercera. Retrieved 2022-04-05.
  2. ^ Armaza, Christian (26 October 2020). "Plebiscito de salida: la instancia donde se aprobará o rechazará la nueva Constitución". El Día (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 October 2020.
  3. ^ "Los 17 procesos electorales que deberá atravesar Chile hasta el 2022". T13 (in Spanish). 16 November 2019. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
  4. ^ a b "Constitución Política de la República de Chile". LeyChile (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 October 2020.
  5. ^ "El cronograma constitucional: Los pasos que vienen tras el triunfo del Apruebo en el Plebiscito". T13 (in Spanish). 26 October 2020. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
  6. ^ Gobierno de Chile. "Proceso constituyente" (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 October 2020.
  7. ^ Harrison, Chase (2022-05-20). "A Look at What Is—and Isn't—in Chile's Constitutional Draft". AS/COA. Retrieved 2022-06-14.