2024 European Parliament election

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The next election to the European Parliament is scheduled to be held in 2024.[1] This will be the first European Parliament election scheduled after the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

Popular vote and seat projections[edit]

There are no pan-European polls for the European elections. However, several organizations calculate the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament in advance to the EU election based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections. The projections prior to 31 January 2020 still include the United Kingdom, which left the EU on that date.[2]

Seats[edit]

The following table shows the projected number of seats for the groups in the EU Parliament.

Institute Date Scope EPP S&D RE ID Greens/EFA ECR GUE/NGL NI Others
Europe Elects[3] 2020-05-28 EU27 197 135 98 77 47 70 55 23 3
Europe Elects[4] 2020-04-30 EU27 193 140 94 78 46 72 55 23 4
Europe Elects[5] 2020-03-31 EU27 188 135 92 83 51 72 57 21 6
Europe Elects[6] 2020-02-29 EU27 184 133 99 85 55 68 56 21 6
Europe Elects[7] 2020-01-31 EU27 182 130 101 85 53 70 55 23 6
Europe Elects[8] 2019-12-31 EU27 182 131 102 86 52 70 54 25 3
Europe Elects[9] 2019-12-31 EU28 177 153 103 82 52 103 53 25 3
Europe Elects[10] 2019-11-30 EU28 176 157 107 80 61 95 49 25 1
Europe Elects[11] 2019-10-31 EU28 175 151 115 78 62 92 46 30 2
Europe Elects[12] 2019-09-30 EU28 170 151 118 79 63 87 48 32 3
Europe Elects[13] 2019-08-31 EU28 166 154 116 80 64 89 47 32 3
Europe Elects[14] 2019-07-31 EU28 168 153 117 79 65 85 48 33 3
Europe Elects[15] 2019-06-30 EU28 167 145 119 80 74 64 46 54 2
post-Brexit EU Parliament 2020-02-01 EU27 187 148 97 76 68 62 40 27 -
pre-Brexit EU Parliament 2019-05-26 EU28 182 154 108 73 74 62 41 57 -

Graphical Summary[edit]

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2024 European Parliament election using a 6-poll moving average. From 31 January, the United Kingdom is not included.

Popular Vote[edit]

The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level.

Institute Date Scope EPP S&D RE Greens/EFA ID ECR GUE/NGL NI Others
Europe Elects[16] 2020-05-28 EU27 25.2% 18.0% 11.3% 7.2% 11.1% 9.6% 8.2% 4.0% 5.4%
Europe Elects[17] 2020-04-30 EU27 25.3% 18.5% 10.9% 7.2% 11.4% 9.8% 8.2% 3.9% 4.7%
Europe Elects[18] 2020-03-31 EU27 24.1% 18.2% 10.7% 8.0% 11.8% 10.0% 8.5% 3.8% 4.9%
Europe Elects[19] 2020-02-29 EU27 22.7% 18.0% 10.9% 8.4% 12.5% 9.7% 9.1% 3.8% 4.9%
Europe Elects[20] 2020-01-31 EU27 20.5% 18.6% 12.4% 8.4% 12.1% 12.1% 8.0% 4.0% 3.9%
Europe Elects[21] 2019-12-31 EU28 20.9% 18.8% 11.8% 8.2% 11.9% 12.4% 8.1% 4.2% 3.7%
Europe Elects[22] 2019-11-30 EU28 20.3% 18.4% 12.3% 8.4% 12.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.8%
Europe Elects[23] 2019-10-31 EU28 20.3% 17.8% 13.1% 8.3% 11.3% 10.0% 6.5% 4.8% 7.9%
Europe Elects[24] 2019-09-30 EU28 19.6% 19.5% 12.3% 8.3% 11.3% 9.7% 6.6% 4.8% 7.9%
Europe Elects[25] 2019-08-31 EU28 20.0% 19.0% 12.9% 8.7% 11.4% 9.6% 6.9% 5.6% 5.9%
Europe Elects[26] 2019-07-31 EU28 19.3% 19.0% 12.8% 9.4% 11.5% 9.3% 6.6% 5.3% 6.7%
Europe Elects[27] 2019-06-30 EU28 19.1% 18.9% 13.3% 10.3% 11.4% 9.8% 6.9% 5.1% 5.2%
European election 2019[28] 2019-05-26 EU28 21.0% 18.5% 13.0% 11.7% 10.8% 8.2% 6.5% 7.2% 8.8%

References[edit]

  1. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 27 September 2019.
  2. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  3. ^ "EU Parliament Projection: One Year After the EU Election Post date". Europe Elects. Retrieved 29 May 2020. line feed character in |title= at position 57 (help)
  4. ^ "EU Parliament Projection: Corona Rallies Europeans Around the Flag". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 March 2020.
  5. ^ "EU Parliament Projection: Government Parties Still Gaining". Europe Elects. Retrieved 4 April 2020.
  6. ^ "European Parliament Projection: Ireland, Thuringia, and the Aftermath". Europe Elects. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
  7. ^ "European Parliament Projection: The EU Parliament Post-Brexit". Europe Elects. February 2020. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
  8. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Twitter. Retrieved 31 December 2019.
  9. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 31 December 2019.
  10. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  11. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  12. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  13. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  14. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  15. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  16. ^ "EU Parliament Projection: One Year After the EU Election Post date". Europe Elects. Retrieved 29 May 2020. line feed character in |title= at position 57 (help)
  17. ^ "EU Parliament Projection: Government Parties Still Gaining". Europe Elects.
  18. ^ "EU Parliament Projection: Corona Rallies Europeans Around the Flag". Europe Elects.
  19. ^ "European Parliament Projection: Ireland, Thuringia, and the Aftermath". Europe Elects.
  20. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  21. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  22. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  23. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  24. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  25. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  26. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  27. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.
  28. ^ "2024 EU election projection". Europe Elects. Retrieved 26 December 2019.