2024 Queensland state election

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2024 Queensland state election

← 2020 26 October 2024 2028 →

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Annastacia Palaszczuk 2016 (crop).jpg DC 2022 (cropped).jpg Robbie Katter with hat at lookout (cropped).jpg
Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk David Crisafulli Robbie Katter
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since 28 March 2012 12 November 2020 2 February 2015
Leader's seat Inala Broadwater Traeger
Last election 52 seats 34 seats 3 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase 13 Increase 44

  Greens placeholder-01.png
ON
Party Greens Pauline Hanson's One Nation
Last election 2 seats 1 seat
Seats needed Increase 45 Increase 46

Incumbent Premier

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor



The 2024 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years.[1][2]

Electoral system[edit]

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) will form the government. If no majority emerges then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly will form government.

The party or coalition that wins the second highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Queensland Legislative Council was abolished in 1922.

Key dates[edit]

The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October. The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Electoral pendulum[edit]

Government seats
Marginal
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP 0.01
Nicklin Robert Skelton ALP 0.1
Hervey Bay Adrian Tantari ALP 2.0
Caloundra Jason Hunt ALP 2.5
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 3.1
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 3.1
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 3.2
Redlands Kim Richards ALP 3.9
Mundingburra Les Walker ALP 3.9
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP 5.2
Pumicestone Ali King ALP 5.3
Cairns Michael Healy ALP 5.6
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 5.6
Fairly safe
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 6.1
Cook Cynthia Lui ALP 6.3
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP 6.7
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 6.7
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP 6.8
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP 7.8
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 8.3
Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP 8.6
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP 9.5
Capalaba Don Brown ALP 9.9
Safe
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP 10.5
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 11.0
McConnel Grace Grace ALP 11.1
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP 11.3
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 11.4
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 11.9
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP 11.9
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 12.2
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP 12.6
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP 12.8
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP 13.1
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP 13.2
Logan Linus Power ALP 13.4
Lytton Joan Pease ALP 13.4
Miller Mark Bailey ALP 13.8
Stretton James Martin ALP 13.9 [i]
Ipswich West Jim Madden ALP 14.3
Toohey Peter Russo ALP 14.4
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 15.1
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 16.0
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 16.5
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 16.7
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP 17.1
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 17.3
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 17.8
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP v ONP 20.7
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP 23.5
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 26.2
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 28.2
Non-government seats
Marginal
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP 0.5
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 1.1
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 1.2
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 1.3
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 1.6
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 1.6
Everton Tim Mander LNP 2.2
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP 3.3
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP 3.3
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 3.6
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP 4.1
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 4.4
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP 4.5
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP 5.3
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 5.4
Fairly safe
Burdekin Dale Last LNP 7.0
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 7.3
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP 8.5
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 9.1
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 9.3
Safe
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP 10.1
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 10.1
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP 10.2
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 10.8
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP 11.4
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP 11.5
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 12.2
Southern Downs James Lister LNP 14.1
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 16.2
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP 16.6
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP 17.2
Condamine Pat Weir LNP 19.2
Callide Bryson Head LNP 21.7 [ii]
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP 23.1
Crossbench seats
South Brisbane Amy MacMahon GRN v ALP 5.3
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN v LNP 6.3
Mirani Stephen Andrew ONP v ALP 9.0
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP v LNP 14.8
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND v LNP 15.8
Hill Shane Knuth KAP v ALP 22.5
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP v ALP 24.7
Notes
  1. ^ In 2021 there was a by-election after the passing of Duncan Pegg. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
  2. ^ In 2022 there was a by-election after Colin Boyce was elected to the seat of Flynn in the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.

Opinion Polling[edit]

Graphical Summary[edit]

Primary voting graph[edit]

Two-party preferred graph[edit]

Voting Intention[edit]

Date Polling firm Size ALP LNP QG
ON
KAP
Other
Two-party-preferred
23–30 June 2022 YouGov[3] ~1,000 34% 38% 14% 10% 1% 3% 50% 50%
18–23 Feb 2022 YouGov[4] ~1,000 39% 38% 10% 8% 1% 4% 52% 48%
October 2020 election 39.57
52
35.89
34
9.47
2
7.12
1
2.52
3
5.44
1
53.2 46.8

References[edit]

  1. ^ The Queensland Electoral System Queensland Parliament
  2. ^ Queensland referendum: Vote on four-year parliamentary terms passes ABC News 5 April 2016
  3. ^ "Palaszczuk shockwaves: Labor's lead obliterated, shock result if election held today". The Courier Mail. 4 July 2022.
  4. ^ "LNP closing the gap on Labor's lead in the polls, Annastacia Palaszczuk viewed less favourably". The Courier Mail. 25 February 2022.