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2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout68.31%[1] Decrease
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 2,126,518 1,251,303
Percentage 61.22% 36.02%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Massachusetts voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

A New England state, Massachusetts has been a Democratic leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and is considered a deeply blue state today.[a] Democrats have consistently defeated Republicans by large margins in Massachusetts since 1996. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by more than 33%, the largest margin since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Harris won Massachusetts along with every county in the state. She won by a 25 point margin. This was an 8-point shift toward the Republican Party from 2020, and Harris’s margin was smaller than the 2016 margin.

This was part of a trend of blue states, such as New York, California, and Illinois, which all swung significantly towards Republicans.[2]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 533,096 80.5% 91 91
No Preference 60,236 9.1% 1 1
Dean Phillips 29,728 4.5%
Marianne Williamson 20,402 3.1%
Other candidates 10,135 1.5%
Cenk Uygur (write-in) 82 <0.1%
Blank ballots 8,930 1.3%
Total: 662,609 100% 92 92

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary

The Massachusetts Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Republican primary, March 5, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 343,189 59.56% 40 0 40
Nikki Haley 211,440 36.69% 0 0 0
No Preference 5,717 0.99% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 5,217 0.91% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 3,981 0.69% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,738 0.30% 0 0 0
Other candidates 1,674 0.29% 0 0 0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 619 0.11% 0 0 0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 527 0.09% 0 0 0
Blank ballots 2,148 0.37% 0 0 0
Total: 576,250 100.00% 40 0 40


Libertarian primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries § Schedule

The Massachusetts Libertarian primary was held on March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage
No Preference 3,982 36.45%
Chase Oliver 1,453 13.30%
Jacob Hornberger 1,089 9.97%
Michael Rectenwald 546 5.00%
Lars Mapstead 399 3.65%
Mike ter Maat 314 2.87%
All Others 2,161 19.78%
Blank ballots 980 8.97%
Total: 10,924 100.00%
Source:[5]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[7] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] Safe D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[10] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[11] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[12] Safe D June 12, 2024
538[13] Solid D June 11, 2024
RCP[14] Solid D June 26, 2024
NBC News[15] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[16] October 2–30, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 66% 34% –
Emerson College[17][A] October 24–26, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 59% 36% 5%[c]
60%[d] 37% 3%[c]
ActiVote[18] September 6 – October 16, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 67% 33% –
MassINC Polling Group[19][B] September 12–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.1% 63% 35% 2%[e]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[20] October 29 – November 2, 2024 744 (LV) ± 3.6% 60% 34% – 2% 1% 3%[f]
YouGov[21][C] October 3–10, 2024 700 (A) ± 4.8% 56% 30% – 2% 1% 11%[g]
Suffolk University[22][D] October 1–4, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 61% 32% – 1% 0% 6%[g]
University of New Hampshire[23] September 12–16, 2024 546 (LV) ± 4.1% 62% 31% – 2% 0% 5%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
MassINC Polling Group[24] October 29 – November 1, 2024 582 (LV) ± 4.9% 61% 31% 2% 0% 1% 0% 5%[h]
MassINC Polling Group[19] September 12–18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 4.1% 60% 32% 3% 0% 1% 0% 4%[i]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Suffolk University[25][D] July 16–18, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 29% 24%
University of New Hampshire[26] May 16–20, 2024 526 (LV) ± 4.3% 68% 32% –
John Zogby Strategies[27][E] April 13–21, 2024 534 (LV) – 55% 36% 9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[28] February 29 – March 3, 2024 271 (RV) – 58% 34% 8%[j]
263 (LV) 59% 34% 7%[j]
University of Massachusetts Lowell[29] October 18–25, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 4.1% 58% 32% 10%
Emerson College[30] September 7–8, 2022 708 (LV) ± 3.6% 54% 34% 12%
University of Massachusetts Lowell[31] June 7–15, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 4.0% 60% 31% 9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[26] May 16–20, 2024 526 (LV) ± 4.3% 55% 26% 10% 1% 2% 6%
MassINC Polling Group[32][F] March 21–29, 2024 1,002 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 26% 7% 2% – 21%[k]
46%[d] 28% 9% 2% – 15%[l]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
YouGov[33][C] May 17–30, 2024 700 (A) ± 4.4% 48% 27% 9% 16%
Suffolk University[34][D] April 16–20, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 22% 8% 18%
Suffolk University[35] February 2–5, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 26% 9% 21%
YouGov[36][C] October 13–20, 2023 700 (V) ± 5.1% 43% 21% 17% 19%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[27][E] April 13–21, 2024 534 (LV) – 48% 42% 10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[27][E] April 13–21, 2024 534 (LV) – 46% 33% 21%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts[38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
2,126,518 61.22% Decrease 4.38
Republican
1,251,303 36.02% Increase 3.88
Green-Rainbow
26,545 0.76% Increase 0.25
Independent
18,418 0.53% N/A
Libertarian
17,735 0.51% Decrease 0.78
Socialism and Liberation
12,889 0.37% N/A
Write-in 20,260 0.58% Increase 0.13
Total votes 3,473,668 100.00% N/A

By county

[edit]
County Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Barnstable 88,129 59.23% 57,451 38.61% 3,205 2.15% 30,678 20.62% 148,785
Berkshire 47,094 68.58% 19,805 28.84% 1,775 2.58% 27,289 39.74% 68,674
Bristol 137,786 49.56% 134,196 48.27% 6,035 2.17% 3,590 1.29% 278,017
Dukes 9,137 74.84% 2,745 22.48% 327 2.68% 6,392 52.36% 12,209
Essex 236,624 58.88% 155,336 38.66% 9,891 2.46% 81,288 20.22% 401,851
Franklin 28,305 67.00% 12,428 29.42% 1,515 3.59% 15,877 37.58% 42,248
Hampden 110,937 53.18% 92,474 44.33% 5,193 2.49% 18,463 8.85% 208,604
Hampshire 58,617 69.19% 23,256 27.45% 2,847 3.36% 35,361 41.74% 84,720
Middlesex 554,471 68.05% 235,118 28.85% 25,243 3.10% 319,353 39.20% 814,832
Nantucket 4,784 67.21% 2,171 30.50% 163 2.29% 2,613 36.71% 7,118
Norfolk 242,712 62.81% 132,497 34.29% 11,238 2.91% 110,215 28.52% 386,447
Plymouth 159,962 53.30% 133,544 44.50% 6,623 2.21% 26,418 8.80% 300,129
Suffolk 222,280 74.29% 66,480 22.22% 10,433 3.49% 155,800 52.07% 299,193
Worcester 225,680 53.63% 183,802 43.67% 11,359 2.70% 41,878 9.96% 420,841
Totals 2,126,518 61.22% 1,251,303 36.02% 95,847 2.76% 875,215 25.20% 3,473,668
Municipalities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris won all nine congressional districts.[39]

District Harris Trump Representative
1st 55% 42% Richard Neal
2nd 60% 36% Jim McGovern
3rd 58% 39% Lori Trahan
4th 58% 38% Jake Auchincloss
5th 70% 26% Katherine Clark
6th 58% 38% Seth Moulton
7th 79% 17% Ayanna Pressley
8th 61% 35% Stephen Lynch
9th 54% 43% Bill Keating

Analysis

[edit]

Harris's 25.20% margin was similar to those of other 21st century Democratic nominees, but below Hillary Clinton's 27.20% margin in 2016 and Joe Biden's 33.46% margin in 2020, and she did win every county in the state.

But despite remaining strongly Democratic, Massachusetts shifted significantly rightward in this election, with all of its counties shifting rightward. It had one of the largest swings of any state, swinging by 8%, which was more than the national swing of 6%. This was despite the state being one of the most liberal, and Harris winning every county in the state.[40] This also suggests that Harris's loss was not simply due to her policy positions or messaging being perceived as too left-wing.[41]

This was part of all 50 states and D.C. shifting rightward, including many of the bluest states shifting significantly rightward. Even D.C. shifted moderately rightward by 3%, despite giving Harris over 90% of the vote. (Harris also lived in D.C. at the time, as the incumbent Vice President.) Massachusetts shifted by about as much as the red states of Texas (by 8%) and Florida (by 10%), and the blue states of California (by 9%), New Jersey (by 10%), and New York (by 11%). By contrast, some blue states only narrowly shifted rightward, including Washington (state) (by 1%), Oregon (by 2%), Maine (by 2%), and Colorado (by 2.5%).[42]

This was the first time that a Democrat won less than 50% of the vote in Bristol County since 1992, the closest a Republican had come to winning a county in Massachusetts since 1988, and the first time a Republican candidate won Fall River since 1924. Trump was initially ahead in Bristol County on election before it narrowly flipped blue as more votes were counted.[43] In addition, it was the first time a Republican candidate won Somerset since 1956, and the first time a Republican candidate won Westport and Seekonk (all in Bristol County) since 1984. Of the 351 municipalities in Massachusetts, Trump flipped 26, while Harris flipped none.[44] 339 municipalities shifted towards Trump, while only 12 shifted towards Harris. Harris's largest gain was in Gosnold, where she improved the margin of victory by 12.2%, while Trump's largest gain was in Lawrence, where he cut his margin of defeat by 31%.[43] Despite losing the city to Harris by a wide margin, Trump managed to win two precincts in Boston, the first time in his three runs that he managed to win any.[45]

Trump's gains were powered significantly by Hispanic Americans, who make up a significant percentage of the population of Massachusetts and shifted heavily to the right in 2024. Lawrence, a heavily Dominican American city in northern Massachusetts, gave Trump 43% of the vote, a gain of over 30% from 2020. The six most Hispanic cities in Massachusetts (namely Lawrence, Lynn, Everett, Chelsea, Holyoke, and Springfield) saw Harris' margin of victory drop a combined 18% from 2020.[46]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ George H.W. Bush was the last Republican presidential nominee to win any counties in Massachusetts in 1988.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
  4. ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
  6. ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) & "Another Candidate" with 1% each
  7. ^ a b Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) & Shiva Ayyadurai (I) with 1% each
  8. ^ "Prefer not to say" with 2%; "Another candidate" & "Would not vote for president" with 1% each
  9. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  10. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 5%
  11. ^ "Another candidate" & "Would not vote" with 3% each
  12. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 3%
  13. ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by WHDH
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by CommonWealth Beacon and WBUR
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB-TV
  4. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe
  5. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by CommonWealth Beacon and WGBH-TV

References

[edit]
  1. ^ https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/research-and-statistics/voter-turnout-statistics.htm. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  2. ^ Mathis, Joel; published, The Week US (November 13, 2024). "Where did Democratic voters go?". theweek. Retrieved November 14, 2024.
  3. ^ "2024 President Democratic Primary". State of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  4. ^ "2024 President Republican Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  5. ^ "2024 President Libertarian Primary". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  12. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  13. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  15. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  16. ^ Allis, Victor (October 31, 2024). "Harris Has Huge Lead in Massachusetts". ActiVote. Retrieved November 1, 2024.
  17. ^ "October 2024 Massachusetts Poll: Harris 59%, Trump 36%". Emerson College Polling. October 29, 2024.
  18. ^ Allis, Victor (October 17, 2024). "Harris Easily Leads in Massachusetts". ActiVote.
  19. ^ a b Wuthmann, Walter (September 23, 2024). "New WBUR poll finds strong support for Harris, Warren in Mass". WBUR.
  20. ^ McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (November 3, 2024). "Harris Maintains Lead Over Trump in MA; Large Differences in Confidence of Accurate Vote Count". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  21. ^ "UMass Amherst/WCVB Poll Finds Bay State Residents Evenly Split on 'Psychedelics,' Majority Support Eliminating MCAS as High School Graduation Requirement and Other Ballot Questions". University of Massachusetts Amherst. October 15, 2024.
  22. ^ Stout, Matt; Huynh, Anjali (October 8, 2024). "Mass. voters overwhelmingly back Harris over Trump, eliminating MCAS graduation requirement, Suffolk/Globe poll finds". The Boston Globe.
  23. ^ McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (September 18, 2024). "Harris Enjoys High Marks on Debate, Commanding Lead Among Massachusetts Voters". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  24. ^ "Final MPG poll of Massachusetts voters find Harris, Warren maintaining commanding leads". MassINC Polling Group. November 1, 2024.
  25. ^ Stout, Matt; Huynh, Anjali (July 19, 2024). "'I think he cannot win.' New Globe/Suffolk poll shows strong unhappiness with Biden as the nominee". The Boston Globe.
  26. ^ a b McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (May 23, 2024). "Biden Holds Large Lead Over Trump & Kennedy in MA; Residents Divided About Campus Protests". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  27. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  28. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
  29. ^ Dyck, Joshua; Cluverius, John; Buchanan, Mark (November 3, 2022). "MA Midterms Topline" (PDF). University of Massachusetts Lowell.
  30. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 8, 2022). "Massachusetts 2022: Healey Leads Diehl By 18 Points; Majority of Massachusetts Voters Approve of Biden". Emerson Polling.
  31. ^ Dyck, Joshua; Cluverius, John (June 22, 2022). "2022 Mass Voters Issues Topline" (PDF). University of Massachusetts Lowell.
  32. ^ Koczela, Steve (April 10, 2024). "Mass. poll finds likely voters lean more to Biden, echoing national trends". CommonWealth Beacon.
  33. ^ "Toplines - University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB May 2024 Massachusetts Poll" (PDF). University of Massachusetts Amherst. June 5, 2024. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 24, 2024.
  34. ^ Paltoff, Emma; Griswold, Niki (April 25, 2024). "Amid migrant crisis, Massachusetts voters support 'right-to-shelter' law — with reservations, new poll shows". The Boston Globe.
  35. ^ "Suffolk Poll: Immigration, Border Security Emerging as Top Voter Issues in Massachusetts" (PDF). Suffolk University. February 7, 2024.
  36. ^ "Toplines - University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB October 2023 Massachusetts Poll" (PDF). University of Massachusetts Amherst. October 25, 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 30, 2023.
  37. ^ "Massachusetts Election Results". Bloomberg. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  38. ^ "2024 President General Election". Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. November 5, 2024. Retrieved December 16, 2024.
  39. ^ "Dra 2020".
  40. ^ Mahtesian, Charlie (November 8, 2024). "The Stunning Geography of Trump's Victory". Politico. It was a story that repeated itself across the electoral map, in swing states and non-competitive states alike. The Democratic coalition that delivered a convincing victory to Biden just a few years earlier simply disintegrated Tuesday, leaving the party stunned and disoriented over the scope of the destruction — and the GOP suddenly invigorated.
  41. ^ Beauchamp, Zack (November 6, 2024). "The global trend that pushed Donald Trump to victory". Vox. Retrieved November 13, 2024. Vice President Kamala Harris performed worse than President Joe Biden did in 2020 nearly everywhere: in big cities and rural areas, in blue states and red ones. Most of the conventional explanations for why a campaign fails - things like messaging choices, or whether candidates campaigned enough in the right places - cannot account for such a sweeping shift.
  42. ^ Kondik, Kyle (December 19, 2024). "How the States Vote Relative to the Nation". Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
  43. ^ a b "5 key takeaways from Massachusetts' 2024 election results". www.wbur.org. November 6, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2025.
  44. ^ Tenser, Phil (November 6, 2024). "Massachusetts election maps show tale of Trump's resurgence in dozens of cities, towns". WCVB. Retrieved November 21, 2024.
  45. ^ "PD43+ » 2024 President General Election". PD43+. Retrieved October 29, 2025.
  46. ^ "Latino historic high vote for Trump seen in six Massachusetts communities". Boston 25 News. November 7, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2025.
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