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2026 United States Senate election in Texas

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2026 United States Senate election in Texas
← 2020
November 3, 2026
2032 →
 
Nominee Ken Paxton James Talarico
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

John Cornyn
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Republican state attorney general Ken Paxton and Democratic state representative James Talarico are the nominees for their respective parties.

Four-term Republican incumbent John Cornyn sought re-election, but was challenged for the nomination by Paxton. After no candidate received a majority in the March 3 primary, Paxton, aided by a late endorsement from President Donald Trump, defeated Cornyn with 63.8% of the vote in a runoff on May 26. Cornyn was one of two incumbent senators to lose renomination in 2026, along with Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, and the first incumbent senator from Texas to lose renomination since 1970. In the Democratic primary, Talarico won the nomination with 52.4% of the vote over congresswoman Jasmine Crockett.

Democrats have not won a Senate election in Texas since 1988.

Background

Texas has been considered a Republican-leaning state throughout the 21st century. Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election in the state since Lloyd Bentsen was re-elected in 1988, and they have not won any statewide election in the state since lieutenant governor Bob Bullock was re-elected in 1994. Republicans have fully controlled the Texas Legislature since the 2002 elections. Texas's Republican lean has waned in the past decade, with Democrats only narrowly losing the 2018 elections for U.S. Senate and attorney general, buoyed by gains in the state's suburban areas. More recently, however, Republicans have made substantial gains with the state's Hispanic population, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley. Republican Donald Trump won the state by nearly 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, while U.S. Senator Ted Cruz won re-election by over 8 points on the same ballot.

Incumbent Republican senator John Cornyn was first elected in 2002 to succeed fellow Republican Phil Gramm. Cornyn had previously served as the state's attorney general, as well as a member of the state's Supreme Court. He most recently won re-election in 2020 with 53.5% of the vote against Democrat M. J. Hegar. Cornyn has a consistently conservative voting record in the U.S. Senate, and he is considered part of the Republican establishment due to his long tenure in politics.

Republican primary

Incumbent senator John Cornyn, who was defeated in the Republican primary runoff.
U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, who finished third in the Republican primary.

Background

Incumbent senator John Cornyn, who was seeking a fifth term, faced a competitive primary from attorney general Ken Paxton which progressed to a runoff after no candidate reached a majority in the first round. The two had clashed publicly since 2022, with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of the bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton's legal troubles, perceived character flaws and corruption, and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges.[1][2][3][4]

The race has been seen as a key contest between the Texas Republican Party's establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction.[1] In recent years, insurgent hard-right candidates have steadily gained ground, often ousting more traditional GOP officials. Polling reflects this divide: Paxton holds a commanding lead among "Trump Movement" voters, while Cornyn performs better with the smaller group of "Traditional Republicans".[5] On May 19, 2026, Donald Trump announced his endorsement for Paxton,[6] while previously describing both Paxton and Cornyn as good friends.[7] His influence was widely seen as a key factor in determining the primary winner.[8] He had previously criticized Cornyn as a "hopeless" RINO (Republican in name only) for supporting the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, an attack Paxton's campaign highlighted in their ads.[9][10] Ted Cruz, the junior senator, avoided taking a side in the primary, though he previously endorsed Cornyn in 2020.[11]

The election takes place amid efforts by the state Republican Party to restrict its primary to registered members. Legislation to allow closed primaries failed, prompting the party to sue the state, claiming the current law violates the First Amendment.[12] Despite serving as the state's attorney general, Paxton declined to defend the law in court, drawing criticism from those who argued he would gain electorally from a closed primary.[13]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Endorsements

John Cornyn

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Ken Paxton

Executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Wesley Hunt

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Declined to endorse

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Labor unions

First round

Campaign

Paxton led Cornyn in early polling both before and after entering the race, though concerns about his general election viability persist, as polls show him underperforming Cornyn and, in some cases, trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents.[99] This led many Republicans to back Cornyn, as Senate GOP leaders pressed Trump for an endorsement.[100] Cornyn told The Wall Street Journal in June 2025 that he would consider stepping aside if a stronger candidate emerged to defeat Paxton, but he quickly walked back the comment, stating he would remain in the race.[101] Congressman Wesley Hunt entered the race in late 2025, further scrambling the race and increasing the chance of a runoff.[102]

All three candidates competed for the endorsement of Donald Trump, having made support for him and his agenda central to their campaigns; however, Trump declined to back a single candidate, instead stating he supports "all three".[103][104] Cornyn had maintained a substantial fundraising lead over the other candidates throughout the race, spending much of it attacking Paxton.[105] The early three-way polling had been very narrow, usually with Cornyn and Paxton making the runoff and no candidate close to winning outright.[106] While campaigning, all three tapped into Islamophobic sentiment in their advertisements and actions, with Cornyn and Paxton having targeted the EPIC City development in Collin County with investigations and lawsuits.[107][108][109]

Fundraising

Candidates in italics withdrew before the primary election took place.

Campaign finance reports as of February 11, 2026[A]
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Virgil Bierschwale (R) $9,988 $9,657 $331
Sara Canady (R) $770 $7,061 $0
John Cornyn (R) $11,155,399 $6,816,042 $4,972,818
Wesley Hunt (R) $1,971,633 $4,116,502 $342,307
Gulrez Khan (R) $10,443 $10,964 $0
Ken Paxton (R) $5,857,093 $1,925,816 $3,931,277
Tony Schmoker (R) $2,500 $3,107 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[110]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		John
Cornyn 		Wesley
Hunt 		Ken
Paxton 		Other/Undecided
[e] 		Margin
FiftyPlusOne[111] through February 27, 2026 March 3, 2026 29.5% 21.2% 35.6% 13.7% Paxton +6.1%
270toWin[112] February 25 – March 2, 2026 March 3, 2026 35.2% 17.5% 38.7% 8.6% Paxton +3.5%
RealClearPolitics[113] February 13–27, 2026 March 2, 2026 35.4% 15.8% 39.2% 9.6%




Paxton +3.8%
Decision Desk HQ[114] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 35.4% 16.5% 38.9% 9.2% Paxton +3.5%
Race to the WH[115] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 32.9% 17.4% 37.2% 12.5% Paxton +5.7%
Average 33.7% 17.7% 37.9% 10.7% Paxton +4.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn 		Wesley
Hunt 		Ken
Paxton 		Other Undecided
YouGov[116] February 26 – March 2, 2026 1,659 (LV) ± 2.8% 32% 17% 36% 2%[g] 13%
Emerson College[117] February 26–27, 2026 547 (LV) ± 4.1% 36% 17% 40% 8%[h] –
Quantus Insights (R)[118] February 25–26, 2026 939 (LV) ± 3.1% 38% 16% 43% – 3%
Victory Phones (R)[119][B] February 24–25, 2026 600 (LV) – 30% 15% 39% – 16%
Blueprint Polling (D)[120] February 23–24, 2026 529 (LV) ± 5.3% 30% 14% 42% 1%[i] 13%
Peak Insights (R)[121][C] February 19–23, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% 14% 36% 15%
UT Tyler[122] February 13–22, 2026 – (LV) – 41% 15% 35% – 9%
– (RV) 39% 19% 33% –
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[123] February 2–16, 2026 350 (RV) ± 5.2% 34% 26% 36% 3%[j] –
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[124][B] February 9–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 29% 26% 36% – 9%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[125][D] February 8–11, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 15% 36% – 22%
Peak Insights (R)[121][C] February 3–8, 2026 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 29% 25% 31% – 15%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[126][E] February 1–3, 2026 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 26% 18% 34% – 22%
J.L. Partners (R)[127] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 26% 27% – 21%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[128][C] January 29 – February 1, 2026 – (LV) – 31% 24% 29% – 16%
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 31% 17% 38% 2%[k] 12%
Emerson College[130] January 10–12, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.1% 26% 16% 27% 2%[l] 29%
Harper Polling (R)[131][B] January 5–7, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 23% 31% – 20%
Deep Root Analytics (R)[128][C] January 5–11, 2026 – (LV) – 29% 19% 26% – 26%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[132][F] December 14–17, 2025 809 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 16% 38% – 8%
1892 Polling (R)[128][C] December 4, 2025 – (LV) – 28% 19% 29% – 24%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[133][G] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 27% 28% 33% – 12%
J.L. Partners[134] December 1–3, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 24% 24% 29% – 23%
co/efficient (R)[135] December 1–3, 2025 1,022 (LV) ± 3.07% 28% 19% 27% – 26%
Public Policy Polling (D)[136][H] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 22% 22% 32% – 24%
Peak Insights (R)[137][C] November 20–25, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 18% 33% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[138][I] November 21–22, 2025 857 (LV) ± 3.3% 25% 26% 36% – 13%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[139][J] November 13–16, 2025 758 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 21% 31% – 16%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] November 4–6, 2025 811 (LV) ± 4.6% 27% 26% 34% – 13%
Harper Polling (R)[141][B] October 28–30, 2025 614 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 24% 25% – 25%
Hunt Research (R)[42][142] October 6–10, 2025 1,097 (LV) ± 2.96% 24% 19% 28% – 29%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] October 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 31% 24% 34% – 11%
Peak Insights (R)[137][C] October 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 19% 36% – 11%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 33% 22% 34% – 11%
Deep Root Analytics (R)[144][C] September 22–28, 2025 1,142 (LV) – 33% 21% 28% – 18%
UT Tyler[145] September 17–24, 2025 492 (RV) ± 3.1% 29% 14% 31% – 26%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[146][K] September 20–22, 2025 760 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 17% 31% – 20%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[147][I] September 14–16, 2025 842 (V) – 28% 23% 38% – 11%
38% 23% 39% –
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] August 24–26, 2025 – (V) – 28% 23% 38% – 11%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] August 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 29% 23% 37% – 11%
Texas Southern University[148] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 30% 22% 35% – 13%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] July 16–18, 2025 – (V) – 32% 15% 38% 15% –
G1 Research[149] Late June 2025 – – 28% 17% 41% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] June 22–23, 2025 – (V) – 28% 17% 41% – 14%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[150][151][F] June 17–22, 2025 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 32% 13% 49% – 7%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] June 8–10, 2025 – (V) – 28% 12% 47% – 13%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 27% 15% 34% – 24%
Quantus Insights (R)[153][154][L] May 11–13, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.4% 38% 16% 46% –
American Opportunity Alliance (R)[155][156] April 29 – May 1, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 14% 43% – 16%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] April 29–30, 2025 – (V) – 27% 18% 40% – 15%
The Tarrance Group (R)[157][J] April 27 – May 1, 2025 – – 34% 19% 44% –
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] April 15–17, 2025 – (V) – 26% 18% 42% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] March 23–25, 2025 – (V) – 26% 13% 46% – 15%
Hypothetical polling

John Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson vs. Chip Roy

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn 		Ronny
Jackson 		Chip
Roy 		Undecided
CWS Research (R)[158][M] October 19–23, 2022 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 35% 14% 18% 33%

John Cornyn vs. "Someone Else"

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn 		Someone
Else 		Undecided
Victory Insights (R)[159] January 4–6, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 40% 25%

Results

Results by county
  Cornyn
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Paxton
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent) 910,382 42.0
Republican Ken Paxton 878,564 40.5
Republican Wesley Hunt 293,250 13.5
Republican Sara Canady 26,355 1.2
Republican Anna Bender 24,167 1.1
Republican Gulrez Khan 15,873 0.7
Republican John Adefope 9,284 0.4
Republican Virgil Bierschwale 9,035 0.4
Total votes 2,166,910 100.0

Cornyn led Paxton narrowly in the primary election, garnering 41.9% of the vote to Paxton's 40.7%, while Hunt placed a distant third with 13.5% of the vote.[160] Support for Cornyn and Paxton was relatively evenly spread across the state, though Cornyn performed slightly better in urban areas, especially Dallas and Austin, while Paxton performed slightly better in rural areas, particularly in East Texas.[161] Hunt performed slightly better in regions which backed Paxton, suggesting his presence on the ballot hurt Cornyn more than Paxton. Even in Hunt's own congressional district, he came in third with barely over 20% of the vote.[162]

In the days leading up to the March 3 primary, Paxton suggested he could win outright and avoid a runoff. However, Cornyn overperformed expectations in what The Texas Tribune described as a "better-than-expected showing". Rolando Garcia, a member of the State Republican Executive Committee who supported Hunt in the primary but planned to back Paxton in the runoff, said the result should alarm the Paxton campaign.[163] On March 5, The Atlantic reported that Trump advisers expected the president to endorse Cornyn in the runoff election after his unexpectedly strong performance in the first round of voting.[164]

Runoff

Campaign

Political observers described the runoff campaign between Paxton and Cornyn as "vile" and "brutal," featuring almost exclusively negative advertising from both sides.[165][166] Cornyn repeatedly attacked Paxton's character, especially regarding alleged infidelity towards his wife, state senator Angela Paxton, who had filed for divorce on "biblical grounds," and compared his ethics to that of a "strip club owner."[167][168] He also highlighted the political scandals that have plagued Paxton's career, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House of Representatives, framing him as corrupt and unfit for political office.[169] Paxton continued to frame Cornyn as insufficiently loyal to Donald Trump.[168][170] His office also drew scrutiny over a sharp increase in publicly-announced lawsuits made in his capacity as attorney general since announcing his Senate run and especially in the months immediately before the March primary. A sizeable number of these actions focused on issues salient to conservative voters, including immigration, Islam, DEI, student protests, and elections, drawing accusations that he used his office to energize his voter base and boost his campaign ahead of the runoff.[171]

The runoff significantly fractured both the Republican electorate and officeholders in the state, many of whom worried that the money spent and political attacks exchanged during the contest could benefit Democratic nominee James Talarico. Talarico won his primary outright, avoiding a runoff and allowing him to shift his focus to the general election early.[166][172] Lieutenant governor Dan Patrick even warned that a depressed Republican turnout could jeopardize Republican control of the Texas House, though most others dismissed that as extremely unlikely, with many Republicans still expressing confidence that both Paxton and Cornyn could win the general election.[173][174][175]

Despite speculation following his first-place primary finish that Trump would endorse Cornyn, Trump did not endorse either candidate by the March 17 withdrawal deadline. Republicans had hoped the non-endorsed candidate would exit to avoid a costly runoff and allow the nominee to focus on the general election. However, Paxton refused to withdraw unless the Senate eliminated the filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act. Meanwhile, Cornyn, previously a staunch defender of the filibuster, signaled openness to reforming or bypassing it, as Trump indicated his endorsement could hinge on the bill's passage.[176][177] Both candidates continued to court Trump's endorsement to consolidate support from the party, but Trump remained neutral in the race over two months after initially signaling his intention to endorse one of them.[178] This jockeying has included policy-related moves as well as superficial ones, such as a bill introduced by Cornyn to designate U.S. Route 287 as Interstate 47 to honor Trump.[179]

On May 19, one week before the runoff, Trump announced his endorsement of Ken Paxton.[180] U.S. representative Wesley Hunt, who finished third in the first round of the primary, also endorsed Paxton that day.[21]

Following the runoff, Cornyn indicated a tacet support for Paxton, saying he would vote for him and would back the Republican ticket but would not actively campaign for him.[181]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 6, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
John Cornyn (R) $13,574,708 $10,130,088 $4,078,081
Ken Paxton (R) $7,600,511 $5,257,561 $2,342,950
Source: Federal Election Commission[182]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		John
Cornyn 		Ken
Paxton 		Undecided
[m] 		Margin
FiftyPlusOne[183] through May 23, 2026 May 26, 2026 40.9% 50.3% 8.8% Paxton +9.4%
RealClearPolitics[184] through May 21, 2026 May 24, 2026 41.0% 48.8% 10.2% Paxton +7.8%
270toWin[185] through May 25, 2026 May 26, 2026 42.7% 51.0% 6.3% Paxton +8.3%
Decision Desk HQ[186] through May 21, 2026 May 24, 2026 38.5% 53.5% 8.0% Paxton +15.0%
Race to the White House[187] through May 22, 2026 May 24, 2026 38.9% 52.8% 8.3% Paxton +13.9%
Average 40.4% 51.3% 8.3% Paxton +10.9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn 		Ken
Paxton 		Other Undecided
Quantus Insights (R)[188] May 21–23, 2026 1,018 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 53% – 4%
SoCal Strategies (R)[189] May 20–21, 2026 700 (LV) – 35% 57% – 8%
May 19, 2026 Trump and Hunt endorse Paxton
Global Strategy Group (D)[190][N] May 6–11, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 52% – 8%
Remington Research Group (R)[191][E] May 3–5, 2026 1,810 (LV) ± 2.6% 36% 47% – 17%
Peak Insights (R)[192][C] May 2–5, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 46% 7%
University of Houston[193] April 28 – May 1, 2026 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 48% – 7%
co/efficient (R)[194] April 11–14, 2026 1,143 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 43% – 13%
Peak Insights (R)[195][C] April 6–9, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 43% – 13%
Texas Public Opinion Research[196] April 6–7, 2026 1,225 (LV) ± 3.2% 40% 48% – 11%
Quantus Insights (R)[197] March 21–23, 2026 1,218 (LV) ± 2.8% 41% 49% – 10%
GQR (D)[198][H] March 19–23, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 47% – 11%
Change Research (D)[199] March 17–19, 2026 807 (RV) ± 3.5% 39% 42% – 19%
Impact Research (D)[200][O] March 12–17, 2026 – (LV) – 37% 53% – 10%
Peak Insights (R)[201][C] March 9–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% – 10%
Slingshot Strategies (D)[202][P] March 7–8, 2026 781 (LV) ± 3.9% 41% 49% – 10%
Harper Polling (R)[203] March 6–8, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 39% 43% – 18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[204][Q] March 5–6, 2026 565 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 45% – 12%
March 3, 2026 Cornyn and Paxton advance to runoff
Peak Insights (R)[201][C] February 23–26, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% – 9%
Peak Insights (R)[201][C] February 22–25, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 46% – 10%
Blueprint Polling (D)[120] February 23–24, 2026 529 (LV) ± 5.3% 36% 49% – 15%
Peak Insights (R)[201][C] February 21–24, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 47% – 10%
Peak Insights (R)[201][C] February 19–23, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 49% – 9%
Peak Insights (R)[201][C] February 16–19, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 50% – 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[124][B] February 9–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 50% – 12%
J.L. Partners (R)[127] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 41% – 19%
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 40% 51% – 9%
Harper Polling (R)[131][B] January 5–7, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 44% – 23%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[133][G] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 44% – 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[136][H] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 34% 44% – 22%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[139][J] November 13–16, 2025 758 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 41% – 14%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] November 4–6, 2025 811 (LV) ± 4.6% 38% 46% – 16%
Harper Polling (R)[141][B] October 28–30, 2025 614 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 39% – 25%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] October 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 43% 46% – 11%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 44% 43% – 13%
UT Tyler[145] September 17–24, 2025 493 (RV) – 39% 37% – 23%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[146][K] September 20–22, 2025 – (V) ± 3.6% 39% 39% – 22%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] September 14–16, 2025 – (V) – 44% 44% – 12%
Texas Public Opinion Research[206] August 27–29, 2025 320 (RV) – 32% 26% 13%[n] 29%
co/efficient (R)[207] August 25–27, 2025 818 (LV) ± 3.4% 36% 39% – 25%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] August 24–26, 2025 – (V) – 41% 48% – 11%
Echelon Insights[208] August 21–24, 2025 515 (LV) ± 4.5% 37% 42% – 21%
Emerson College[209] August 11–12, 2025 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 30% 29% 5%[o] 36%
Texas Southern University[148] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 39% 44% – 17%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] August 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 42% 45% – 13%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] July 16–18, 2025 – (V) – 36% 47% – 17%
Pulse Decision Science (R)[150][151][F] June 17–22, 2025 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 57% – 5%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] June 8–10, 2025 – (V) – 33% 49% – 18%
UT Tyler[210] May 28 – June 7, 2025 538 (RV) – 34% 44% – 22%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[211][212][R] June 6–8, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 49% – 18%
UpONE Insights (R)[213][214][S] May 27–28, 2025 600 (V) ± 4.0% 28% 50% – 21%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 34% 43% – 23%
Quantus Insights (R)[153][154][L] May 11–13, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.4% 39% 52% – 9%
American Opportunity Alliance (R)[155][156] April 29 – May 1, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 35% 52% – 13%
The Tarrance Group (R)[157][J] April 27 – May 1, 2025 – – 40% 56% – –
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] April 29–30, 2025 – (V) – 33% 48% – 19%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] April 15–17, 2025 – (V) – 33% 50% – 17%
Internal Republican Party poll[215] Mid–April 2025 605 (V) – 33% 50% – 17%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[140][I] March 23–25, 2025 – (V) – 35% 52% – 13%
Lake Research Partners (D)/
Slingshot Strategies (D)[216][P] 		March 7–10, 2025 – (RV) – 27% 38% 19%[p] 16%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[217] January 28 – February 2, 2025 – (V) – 28% 53% – 19%
Victory Insights (R)[159] January 4–6, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 42% – 25%
CWS Research (R)[218][M] July 9–10, 2022 1,918 (RV) ± 2.2% 31% 51% – 18%
Hypothetical runoff polling

John Cornyn vs. Wesley Hunt

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn 		Wesley
Hunt 		Undecided
Blueprint Polling (D)[120] February 23–24, 2026 529 (LV) ± 5.3% 42% 37% 21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[124][B] February 9–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 48% 25%
J.L. Partners (R)[127] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 44% 23%
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 39% 15%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[133][G] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 35% 50% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[136][H] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 28% 45% 27%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 34% 16%
Stratus Intelligence (R)[147][I] September 14–16, 2025 842 (V) – 37% 46% 17%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 31% 30%

Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton 		Wesley
Hunt 		Undecided
Blueprint Polling (D)[120] February 23–24, 2026 529 (LV) ± 5.3% 53% 29% 18%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[124][B] February 9–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 42% 14%
J.L. Partners (R)[127] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 44% 22%
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 56% 33% 11%
Harper Polling (R)[131][B] January 5–7, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 33% 23%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[133][G] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 45% 16%
Harper Polling (R)[141][B] October 28–30, 2025 614 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 34% 28%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 35% 15%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 25% 30%

Results

Unofficial runoff results by county
  Paxton
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Cornyn
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary runoff results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ken Paxton 888,196 63.8
Republican John Cornyn (incumbent) 503,438 36.2
Total votes 1,391,634 100.0

Paxton defeated Cornyn with 64% of the runoff vote, becoming the first challenger to defeat an incumbent Senator in a primary election in the state since Lloyd Bentsen defeated Ralph Yarborough in 1970.[219] Cornyn became the second senator in the 2026 election cycle to lose renomination, after Bill Cassidy in Louisiana. His loss largely mirrored Cassidy's, performing best in the state's most Democratic-leaning areas, as well as wealthier suburban areas. Excluding sparsely populated Kenedy County, Cornyn only won Travis County, home to the state capital Austin, a heavily left-leaning area, while narrowly losing Dallas County, home to the wealthy Park Cities and Southern Methodist University.[220] Paxton's runoff performance was the largest for a second-place finisher in a U.S. Senate primary in Texas, eclipsing Charles A. Culberson's previous record in 1916.[221]

Democratic primary

U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, who finished second in the Democratic primary.

Background

Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups.[222][223][224][225]

Colin Allred, who unsuccessfully ran against incumbent Republican senator Ted Cruz in 2024, exited the race on December 8, 2025, which precipitated Jasmine Crockett's entry into the race.[226]

Campaign

A Talarico rally at The Backyard in San Antonio

Crockett entered the race with high name recognition and strong polling numbers, but her launch on the last day to file meant she had limited time for campaigning statewide.[227] According to polling data in February 2026 prior to the primaries, Crockett originally had a favorability percentage of 23%, and an unfavorable percentage of 25% while Talarico came in at 18% favorable and 9% unfavorable.[228][229] She did not hire a campaign manager and focused on advertising over a staffed field operation.[230]

Crockett and Talarico participated in a debate on January 24, 2026, hosted by the AFL-CIO in Georgetown. During the debate, both candidates largely aligned on policy and engaged in limited direct attacks. Crockett defended her "firebrand" style as necessary for the political moment, while Talarico emphasized a more measured approach and his perceived electability against Ken Paxton.[231] Talarico later faced controversy after a social media influencer alleged he had referred to former rival Colin Allred as a "mediocre Black man" in comparison to Crockett in a private conversation; Talarico disputed the claim as a mischaracterization. Allred subsequently endorsed Crockett and criticized Talarico.[232] The episode further exposed the racial tension between each candidate's base of support, with Crockett performing best among Black voters, Democrats' strongest voter base, and Talarico performing best among White and Latino voters, demographics which hold far more swing voters.[233]

On February 16, Talarico was scheduled to appear on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. According to Colbert, however, CBS did not allow him to air the interview nor mention the cancellation on-air based on a recently revised interpretation of the FCC's equal-time rule, although he discussed it anyway during that night's episode in spite of FCC threats. Colbert later posted the interview to the show's YouTube page.[234] The interview gained millions of views online, while Talarico fundraised $2.5 million in the aftermath and increased his name recognition as early voting began ahead of the March 3 primary. Analysts largely viewed the campaign as one based on personality and electability rather than ideology.[235]

After the primary, Crockett conceded to Talarico,[236] and later endorsed him.[237]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Jasmine Crockett

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

James Talarico

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Colin Allred (withdrawn)

Executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Declined to endorse

U.S. representatives

Labor unions

Debates

2026 Texas Democratic Senate primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Crockett Hassan Talarico
1[286] January 24, 2026 Texas AFL-CIO Daniel Marin
Gromer Jeffers 		KXAN-TV P N P

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 11, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jasmine Crockett (D) $8,577,757 $5,092,872 $3,484,885
James Talarico (D) $20,694,809 $15,906,718 $4,788,090
Source: Federal Election Commission[110]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Jasmine
Crockett 		James
Talarico 		Other/Undecided
[s] 		Margin
FiftyPlusOne[287] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 45.7% 46.2% 8.1% Talarico +0.5%
270toWin[112] February 9 – March 1, 2026 March 2, 2026 47.6% 47.6% 4.8% Tied
Race to the WH[115] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 44.4% 49.1% 6.5% Talarico +4.7%
VoteHub[288] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 45.5% 45.9% 8.6% Talarico +0.4%
Decision Desk HQ[289] through February 27, 2026 March 2, 2026 45.6% 48.5% 8.6% Talarico +2.9%
Average 45.76% 47.46% 7.4% Talarico +1.14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Colin
Allred 		Jasmine
Crockett 		James
Talarico 		Other Undecided
YouGov[116] February 26 – March 2, 2026 2,408 (LV) ± 2.7% – 40% 53% 0%[t] 7%
Emerson College[117] February 26–27, 2026 850 (LV) ± 3.3% – 47% 52% 1%[u] –
Public Policy Polling (D)[290][T] February 25, 2026 599 (LV) ± 4.0% – 42% 48% 0%[v] 10%
Blueprint Polling (D)[120] February 23–24, 2026 472 (LV) ± 4.5% – 40% 52% 2%[w] 6%
UT Tyler[122] February 13–22, 2026 488 (LV) – – 55% 37% 4%[x] 4%
548 (RV) – 56% 34% 7%[y] 3%
February 16, 2026 Talarico is interviewed by Stephen Colbert
University of Texas/
Texas Politics Project[123] 		February 2–16, 2026 369 (RV) ± 5.1% – 56% 44% –
Impact Research (D)[291][O] February 10–12, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% – 43% 47% 10%
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% – 47% 39% 2%[z] 12%
Slingshot Strategies (D)[292][P] January 14–21, 2026 1,290 (LV) ± 3.7% – 38% 37% 4%[aa] 21%
HIT Strategies (D)[293][U] January 6–15, 2026 1,005 (LV) ± 3.2% – 46% 33% – 21%
Emerson College[130] January 10–12, 2026 413 (LV) ± 4.8% – 38% 47% <1%[ab] 15%
Texas Southern University[294] December 9–11, 2025 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% – 51% 43% – 6%
December 8, 2025 Allred withdraws from the race
Impact Research (D)[291][O] December 3–4, 2025 – (LV) – – 52% 35% 13%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 478 (RV) ± 4.5% – 52% 34% – 14%
46% – 42% – 8%
Impact Research (D)[295][O] October 23–29, 2025 836 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% – 48% – 9%
UT Tyler[145] September 17–24, 2025 377 (RV) – 42% – 30% 4%[ac] 24%
Public Policy Polling (D)[296] September 3–4, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% – 32% – 27%
Emerson College[209] August 11–12, 2025 370 (RV) ± 5.1% 58% – – 8%[ad] 34%
Texas Southern University[148] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 50% – 43% – 7%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Colin
Allred 		James
Talarico 		Joaquin
Castro 		Jasmine
Crockett 		Beto
O'Rourke 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 478 (RV) ± 4.5% 13% 25% – 31% 25% – 6%
34% – – 57% – – 9%
38% – – – 55% – 7%
– – – 51% 41% – 8%
39% – – 54% – 7%
UT Tyler[145] September 17–24, 2025 377 (RV) – 25% – 13% 29% 31% 2%[ae] –
Texas Public Opinion Research[206] August 27–29, 2025 270 (RV) – 13% 7% 4% 26% 27% 5%[af] 18%
Texas Southern University[148] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 38% – – – 58% – 4%
52% – – 41% – – 7%
NRSC (R)[297] July 4–7, 2025 566 (LV) ± 3.0% 20% – 13% 35% 13% – 18%

Results

Results by county
  Talarico
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Crockett
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Talarico/Crockett Tie
  •   40–50%
  •   50%
  Talarico/Hassan Tie
  •   50%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic James Talarico 1,216,412 52.4
Democratic Jasmine Crockett 1,071,900 46.2
Democratic Ahmad Hassan 30,875 1.3
Total votes 2,319,187 100.0

James Talarico won the Democratic primary with 52.4% of the vote.[298] After a dispute concerning voting hours in Dallas and Williamson Counties on the night of the primary, Crockett conceded the race on March 4.[299] The dispute in Dallas County arose from the county Republican Party's decision not to use countywide voting centers, where voters can cast ballots at any location, on Election Day, as Texas law requires both parties to agree in order to implement them.[300] On March 17, the Dallas County GOP announced it would use countywide voting centers for the runoff.[301]

Issues with a ballot scanning and tabulation machine in Newton County led to the county clerk writing in a court filing that its Democratic statewide primary results, with Hassan winning the county, were "skewed" and that a recount was required, which eventually had to be done by hand due to the scanning issues persisting,[302][303] with the revised results showing Crockett winning the county.

Democrats cast more primary votes in a midterm election than Republicans for the first time since 2002.[162] The results largely mirrored those of the 2020 primary for this seat, which also pitted a Black Democrat from Dallas (Royce West) against a White Democrat from the Austin area (M. J. Hegar). Crockett performed best among Black voters, winning by large margins in East Texas, as well as by smaller margins in the urban centers of Dallas and Harris counties. Talarico won the White and Hispanic vote, dominating in the Austin metro area, and winning the state's remaining rural areas, including the heavily-Hispanic Rio Grande Valley.[161]

Third-party and independent candidates

Libertarian Party

The Libertarian Party convention was held from April 10 to 12, 2026, in Abilene.[304] Ted Brown, the party's U.S. senate nominee in 2024, secured the nomination with 83 votes to Daniel "Mark" Sims's 39.[305]

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated at convention

Green Party

Candidates

Withdrawn

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Campaign

Following the Republican runoff in May, both major-party nominees quickly pivoted their messaging against each other in preparation for the general election.[310] Paxton's runoff victory elated many Democrats who saw him as a weaker general election candidate, and it caused multiple nonpartisan predictors to shift the race away from Republicans.[219] Talarico's campaigning became much more negative compared to his primary race, attacking Paxton's character and framing him as corrupt.[311] Paxton has characterized Talarico as an extremist, leaning heavily into culture war issues, particularly surrounding gender. He and his supporters have attacked comments Talarico made saying "God is non-binary," accused him of being a vegan, and attacked his masculinity.[312][313]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Inside Elections[314] Likely R April 23, 2026
Race to the WH[315] Tossup May 22, 2026
RealClearPolitics[316] Tossup May 19, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball[317] Lean R May 26, 2026
The Cook Political Report[318] Lean R May 26, 2026
The Economist[319][ag] Tossup May 22, 2026

Post-primary endorsements

Ken Paxton (R)

U.S. senators

State legislators

Newspapers and media

James Talarico (D)

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers and media

Declined to endorse

Executive branch officials

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ken Paxton (R)[ah] $7,600,511 $5,257,561 $2,342,950
James Talarico (D)[ai] $40,284,109 $30,425,244 $9,858,865
Source: Federal Election Commission[182]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Ken Paxton (R) James Talarico (D) Other/
Undecided[aj] 		Margin
Race to the WH[187] through June 4, 2026 June 9, 2026 42.8% 45.1% 12.1% Talarico +2.3%
270toWin[346] April 22 – June 4, 2026 June 9, 2026 44.5% 45.5% 10.0% Talarico +1.0%
RealClearPolitics[347] January 10 – June 4, 2026 June 9, 2026 43.7% 44.3% 12.0% Talarico +0.6%
Average 43.7% 45.0% 11.4% Talarico +1.3%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		James
Talarico (D) 		Other Undecided
Quantus Insights (R)[348] June 3–4, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 43% 4%[ak] 7%
Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University[349] June 1–4, 2026 807 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 3%[al] 6%
Texas Public Opinion Research[350] May 27–28, 2026 1,670 (LV) ± 2.8% 44% 47% 3%[am] 7%
May 26, 2026 Republican primary runoff
Public Policy Polling (D)[351][V] May 22–23, 2026 643 (RV) — 38% 45% 3%[an] 14%
Texas Southern University[353] April 22 – May 6, 2026 1,223 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 45% 2%[ao] 8%
Texas Public Opinion Research[354] April 17–20, 2026 1,018 (LV) ± 3.3% 41% 46% — 9%
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[355] April 10–20, 2026 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8%[ap] 34% 42% 5%[o] 19%[aq]
Impact Research (D)[200][O] March 12–17, 2026 900 (LV) ± 3.3% 43% 44% 5%[ar] 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[356][H] March 4–5, 2026 576 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 47% — 8%
March 3, 2026 Primary elections
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 44% 3%[an] 7%
Emerson College[130] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 46% — 9%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[357] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 44% — 12%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 49% 46% — 5%
UT Tyler[145] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 37% 8%[as] 17%
Hypothetical polling

John Cornyn vs. James Talarico

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		James
Talarico (D) 		Other Undecided
May 26, 2026 Republican primary runoff
Texas Southern University[353] April 22 – May 6, 2026 1,223 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 3%[an] 8%
Texas Public Opinion Research[354] April 17–20, 2026 1,018 (LV) ± 3.3% 41% 44% — 11%
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[355] April 10–20, 2026 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8%[ap] 33% 40% 7%[at] 19%[aq]
Impact Research (D)[200][O] March 12–17, 2026 900 (LV) ± 3.3% 41% 43% 7%[au] 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[356][H] March 4–5, 2026 576 (V) ± 4.1% 43% 44% — 13%
March 3, 2026 Primary elections
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 44% 43% 5%[ar] 8%
Emerson College[130] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% — 9%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[357] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 40% — 14%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 48% 45% — 7%
UT Tyler[145] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 35% 7%[at] 17%

John Cornyn vs. Jasmine Crockett

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		Jasmine
Crockett (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 43% 5%[ar] 7%
Emerson College[130] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 43% — 9%
Change Research (D)[358] November 21–26, 2025 1,189 (V) ± 3.1% 49% 41% — 10%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% — 6%

Ken Paxton vs. Jasmine Crockett

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		Jasmine
Crockett (D) 		Other Undecided
Hart Research (D)[359][360][W] February 6–12, 2026 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 49% — 6%
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 43% 4%[av] 8%
Emerson College[130] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 46% — 9%
Change Research (D)[358] November 21–26, 2025 1,189 (V) ± 3.1% 50% 42% — 8%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 49% 47% — 2%

John Cornyn vs. Colin Allred

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		Colin
Allred (D) 		Other Undecided
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[357] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% — 13%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 48% 46% — 6%
UT Tyler[145] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 37% 7%[at] 13%
Emerson College[209] August 11–12, 2025 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 38% — 17%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 44% — 8%

Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		Colin
Allred (D) 		Other Undecided
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[357] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 44% — 12%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 48% 47% — 5%
UT Tyler[145] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 41% 8%[as] 13%
GBAO (D)[361][X] August 13–18, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 49% — 4%
49% 50%[aw] — —
Emerson College[209] August 11–12, 2025 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 41% — 13%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 46% — 6%
Brad Parscale (R)[215] Mid–April 2025 >1,000 (LV) — 37% 52% — 11%

Wesley Hunt vs. Colin Allred

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Wesley
Hunt (R) 		Colin
Allred (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 45% — 5%
UT Tyler[145] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 37% 6%[ax] 19%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% — 9%

Wesley Hunt vs. Jasmine Crockett

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Wesley
Hunt (R) 		Jasmine
Crockett (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 43% 3%[an] 8%
Emerson College[130] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 43% — 9%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 45% — 5%

Wesley Hunt vs. James Talarico

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Wesley
Hunt (R) 		James
Talarico (D) 		Other Undecided
University of Houston/YouGov[129] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 42% 3%[an] 9%
Emerson College[130] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% — 9%
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% — 6%
UT Tyler[145] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 37% 6%[ax] 21%

John Cornyn vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 49% 46% 5%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 43% 8%

Ken Paxton vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 49% 46% 5%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 45% 6%

Wesley Hunt vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Wesley
Hunt (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
University of Houston/
Texas Southern University[143] 		September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.4% 49% 47% 4%
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 43% 8%

John Cornyn vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		Joaquin
Castro (D) 		Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 41% 11%

Ken Paxton vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		Joaquin
Castro (D) 		Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% 9%

Wesley Hunt vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Wesley
Hunt (R) 		Joaquin
Castro (D) 		Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University[152] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 42% 10%

John Cornyn vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		John
Cornyn (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Stratus Intelligence (R)[211][212][R] June 6–8, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 35% 23%

Ken Paxton vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Ken
Paxton (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Stratus Intelligence (R)[211][212][R] June 6–8, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 42% 19%

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Other Undecided
Texas Public Opinion Research[206] August 27–29, 2025 843 (RV) ± 4.6% 48% 43% 9%[ay] —


Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai Endorsement received after the first round of primary voting took place.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Endorsement only applicable for the primary election.
  1. ^
  2. ^
  3. ^
  4. ^
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ^ "Someone else" and "I [did/will] not vote in this primary" with 1%; John Adefope, Anna Bender, Virgil Bierschwale, and Sara Canady with 0%
  8. ^ Anna Bender with 3%; Sara Canady and Gulrez Khan 2%; John Adefope with 1%; Virgil Bierschwale with 0%
  9. ^ "Do not remember" with 1%; John Adefope, Anna Bender, Virgil Bierschwale, Sara Canady, Gulrez Khan, and "Did not vote in this race" with 0%
  10. ^ Bierschwale with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  11. ^ Sara Canady with 1%; "4 others" with <1%
  12. ^ John Adefope with 1%; Anna Bender, Virgil Bierschwale, Sara Canady, and Gulrez Khan with a combined 1%
  13. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  14. ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 9%; "Prefer not to answer" with 4%
  15. ^ a b "Someone else" with 5%
  16. ^ Would not Vote with 8%; Other with 7%; Refused with 4%
  17. ^ County executive
  18. ^
  19. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  20. ^ Hassan, "I [did/will] not vote in this primary", and "Someone else" with 0%
  21. ^ Hassan with 1%
  22. ^ Hassan with 0%
  23. ^ "Did not vote in this race" and "Do not remember" with 1%; Hassan with 0%
  24. ^ Hassan with 4%
  25. ^ Hassan with 7%
  26. ^ Hassan with 2%
  27. ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 4%
  28. ^ Hassan at <1%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  30. ^ Morgul with 4%; Swanson with 3%; Virts with 1%
  31. ^ "Refused" with 2%
  32. ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 5%
  33. ^ The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
  34. ^ As of May 6, 2026
  35. ^ As of March 31, 2026
  36. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  37. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  38. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
    "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  39. ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 2%
    Ted Brown (L) with 1%
  40. ^ a b c d e Ted Brown (L) with 3%
  41. ^ Ted Brown (L) with 2%
  42. ^ a b ±3.4% adjusted for weighting
  43. ^ a b "Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion"
  44. ^ a b c Ted Brown (L) with 5%
  45. ^ a b "Someone else" with 8%
  46. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 7%
  47. ^ Ted Brown (L) with 7%
  48. ^ Ted Brown (L) with 4%
  49. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  50. ^ a b "Someone else" with 6%
  51. ^ "Someone else" with 9%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Some candidates may have not published fundraising totals as of the filing deadline.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Poll sponsored by Hunt's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Poll sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC, which supports Cornyn
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Paxton's campaign
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Paxton
  6. ^ a b c Poll commissioned by a Paxton-allied super PAC.
  7. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Standing For Texas, who support Hunt[205]
  8. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w Poll commissioned by a pro-Hunt group
  10. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Cornyn
  11. ^ a b Poll commissioned by One Nation, which supports Cornyn
  12. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by Giffords
  14. ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by Talarico's campaign
  15. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research
  16. ^ Poll commissioned by the Texas Justice Fund
  17. ^ a b c Poll commissioned by the Conservative Policy Project
  18. ^ Poll sponsored by the Educational Freedom Institute
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by Lone Star Rising PAC, which supports Talarico
  20. ^ Poll sponsored by Crockett's campaign
  21. ^ Poll sponsored by Lone Star Rising PAC, which supports Talarico[352]
  22. ^ Poll sponsored by Forward Texas super PAC, which supports Crockett
  23. ^ Poll sponsored by Allred's campaign

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Official campaign websites

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