Manitoba general election, 2016

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Manitoba general election, 2016
Manitoba
← 2011 April 19, 2016 (2016-04-19) 42nd →

57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 57.43%
  First party Second party
  Brian Pallister 2014.jpg Greg Selinger cropped.jpg
Leader Brian Pallister Greg Selinger
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since July 30, 2012 October 17, 2009
Leader's seat Fort Whyte St. Boniface
Last election 19 seats, 43.71% 37 seats, 46.16%
Seats before 19 35
Seats won 40 14
Seat change Increase21 Decrease21
Popular vote 231,783 112,734
Percentage 53.01% 25.73%
Swing Increase9.30% Decrease20.43%

  Third party Fourth party
  Canadianbokhari.png James Beddome 2011 - 01.jpg
Leader Rana Bokhari James Beddome
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 26, 2013 November 15, 2014
Leader's seat ran in Fort Rouge (lost) ran in Fort Garry-Riverview (lost)
Last election 1 seat, 7.52% 0 seats, 2.52%
Seats before 1 0
Seats won 3 0
Seat change Increase2 Steady
Popular vote 62,985 22,462
Percentage 14.46% 5.14%
Swing Increase6.94% Increase2.62%

Manitoba Election Map 2016.svg
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.

Premier before election

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

Premier-designate

Brian Pallister
Progressive Conservative

The 41st general election of Manitoba was held on April 19, 2016 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada.[1] The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Tories won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats.[2]

The election also removed one of the two New Democratic governments in the country, the other being formed by the Alberta New Democratic Party.

Date[edit]

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election.[3] As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April.[4] Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election was scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early.[5] The legislature was dissolved and writs or the election were dropped on March 16, 2016.[6]

Campaign[edit]

The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election, the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting;[7] in the context of the Manitoba election, however, polling found that none of the three main party leaders was particularly well-liked or trusted by the electorate.[8] Although Pallister fared best with 33 per cent support in public opinion polling on the question of preferred premier, even he finished only one point ahead of "none of the above" at 32 per cent.[8]

The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate.[7] Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change.[9]

Election summary[edit]

The Tories won a near-sweep of southern and central Manitoba, and also made significant inroads in Winnipeg, taking every seat in the southern and western portions of the capital. In many cases, previously safe NDP seats either fell to the Tories or saw the NDP margins cut by more than half.

Summary of the April 19, 2016 Manitoba Legislature election
Party Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2011 Dissol. 2016 +/- Votes % % change
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 57 19 19 40 +21 231,783 53.01 +9.30
New Democratic Greg Selinger 57 37 35 14 -21 112,734 25.73 -20.43
Liberal Rana Bokhari 51 1 1 3 +2 62,985 14.46 +6.94
Green James Beddome 30 22,462 5.14 +2.62
Manitoba Party Gary Marshall 16 4,943 1.13 n/a
Communist Darrell Rankin 6 305 0.07 +0.03
  Independents 4 2,032 0.46 +0.41
  Vacant[a] 2
Total 221 57 57 57 443,861

Summary results[edit]

40 14 3
Progressive Conservative New Democratic Liberal
Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2016
Party 2011 Gain from (loss to) 2016
NDP PC Lib
New Democratic 37 (21) (2) 14
Progressive Conservative 19 21 40
Liberal 1 2 3
Total 57 23 (21) (2) 57
Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – top 5 candidates from each riding, by party
Party Candidates 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Progressive Conservative 57 40 11 6
New Democratic 57 14 28 12 3
Liberal 51 3 11 31 6
Green 30 4 5 20 1
Manitoba Party 16 2 1 5 7
Independent 4 1 3
Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
PC NDP Lib Grn MB Ind
Progressive Conservative 26 8 3 2 1 40
New Democratic 10 3 1 14
Liberal 1 2 3
Total 11 28 11 4 2 1 57
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results
Parties Seats
 Progressive Conservative  New Democratic 36
 Progressive Conservative  Liberal 9
 Progressive Conservative  Green 3
 Progressive Conservative  Manitoba Party 2
 Progressive Conservative  Independent 1
 New Democratic  Liberal 5
 New Democratic  Green 1
Total 57

Incumbents not contesting their seats[edit]

Retiring incumbents
Party Riding Incumbent
NDP
Assiniboia Jim Rondeau[11]
Dauphin Stan Struthers[12]
Dawson Trail Ron Lemieux
Fort Rouge Jennifer Howard
Radisson Bidhu Jha[13]
St. Johns Gord Mackintosh
St. Vital Nancy Allan[14]
Seine River Theresa Oswald
Transcona Daryl Reid
Progressive Conservative
Agassiz Stu Briese[15]
Riding Mountain Leanne Rowat[15]
River East Bonnie Mitchelson[16]

Opinion polls[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date of Polling Link NDP PC Liberal Green Other
Insights West April 18, 2016 HTML 28 53 10 7 1
Insightrix Research April 18, 2016 HTML 22 49 19 9 1
Forum Research April 17, 2016 PDF 21 52 18 9
Mainstreet Research April 14, 2016 HTML 26 55 11 9
Insights West April 7, 2016 HTML 26 49 17 7 1
Insightrix Research April 7, 2016 HTML 24 49 22 5
Mainstreet Research April 5, 2016 HTML 24 50 17 9
Probe Research Inc April 4, 2016 PDF 28 46 20 6
Mainstreet Research March 29, 2016 HTML 23 45 24 7
Mainstreet Research March 19, 2016 HTML 24 44 24 7
Forum Research March 13, 2016 PDF 22 46 23 8 1
Mainstreet Research March 12, 2016 HTML 27 43 24 7
Mainstreet Research February 20, 2016 HTML 21 50 23 6
Mainstreet Research February 11, 2016 HTML 21 51 20 7
Mainstreet Research January 25, 2016 HTML 20 52 20 9
Mainstreet Research January 9, 2016 HTML 23 44 27 6
Insightrix Research December 22, 2015 HTML 19 39 36 5 1
Probe Research Inc December 15, 2015 PDF 22 43 29 6
Probe Research Inc September 23, 2015 PDF 25 45 24 5
Probe Research Inc June 27, 2015 PDF 29 46 19 5
Probe Research Inc April 5, 2015 PDF 29 44 20 7
Probe Research Inc December 12, 2014 HTML 26 48 19 7
Mainstreet Research November 3, 2014 HTML 27 53 20
Probe Research Inc October 1, 2014 HTML 30 42 20 8
Probe Research Inc June 19, 2014 HTML 32 45 16 7
Probe Research Inc March 28, 2014 HTML 28 46 23 3
Insightrix Research February 7, 2014 HTML 24 49 18 9
Probe Research Inc December 27, 2013 PDF 26 48 20 6
Probe Research Inc September 28, 2013 HTML 29 43 20 8
Probe Research Inc June 26, 2013 PDF 28 46 17 10
Probe Research Inc April 14, 2013 PDF 35 42 15 8
Probe Research Inc December 14, 2012 PDF 39 43 11 7
Probe Research Inc October 14, 2012 PDF 45 38 11 6
Probe Research Inc June 29, 2012 PDF 44 40 13 3
Probe Research Inc April 4, 2012 PDF 40 45 10 5
2011 election October 4, 2011 46.2 43.7 7.5 2.5 0.1

Candidates by riding[edit]

  • Note that names in bold type represent Cabinet members, while italics represent party leaders.

Northern Manitoba[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green Other
Flin Flon Tom Lindsey
1,054
Angela Enright
942
Leslie Beck
894
Clarence Pettersen (Ind.)
354
Clarence Pettersen
Kewatinook Eric Robinson
1,177
Edna Nabess
371
Judy Klassen
1,477
Eric Robinson
Swan River Ron Kostyshyn
2,408
Rick Wowchuk
4,081
Shayne Lynxleg
483
Dan Soprovich
296
Ron Kostyshyn
The Pas Amanda Lathlin
1,944
Doug Lauvstad
1,759
Tyler Duncan
555
Patrick Wood
216
Amanda Lathlin
Thompson Steve Ashton
1,499
Kelly Bindle
1,709
Inez Vystrcil-Spence
616
Steve Ashton

Westman/Parkland[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green Other
Agassiz Courtney Lucas
445
Eileen Clarke
5,219
Robert Smith
406
Damian Dempsey (Ind.)
903
Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden Lorne Topolniski
592
Doyle Piwniuk
6,001
Frank Godon (Manitoba)
828
Doyle Piwniuk
Brandon East Drew Caldwell
2,513
Len Isleifson
3,651
Vanessa Hamilton
809
Drew Caldwell
Brandon West Linda Ross
1,875
Reg Helwer
5,603
William Moore
618
Reg Helwer
Dauphin Darcy Scheller
1,759
Brad Michaleski
4,438
Garry Gurke
468
Kate Storey
550
Darrell Inkster (Manitoba)
157
Stan Struthers
Riding Mountain Béla Gyarmati
596
Greg Nesbitt
5,299
Jordan Fleury
1,013
Mark Olenick
776
Leanne Rowat
Spruce Woods Amanda Chmelyk
670
Cliff Cullen
5,178
Jaron Hart
496
Malcolm McKellar (Manitoba)
733
Cliff Cullen

Central Manitoba[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green Other
Emerson Alanna Jones
431
Cliff Graydon
4,942
Loren Braul
1,419
Cliff Graydon
Gimli Armand Bélanger
2,579
Jeff Wharton
5,614
Dwight Harfield
843
Ed Paquette (Manitoba)
239
vacant
Interlake Tom Nevakshonoff
1,428
Derek Johnson
3,685
Jamal Abas
2,068
Tom Nevakshonoff
Lakeside Matt Austman
1,369
Ralph Eichler
6,077
Ralph Eichler
Midland Jacqueline Theroux
714
Blaine Pedersen
6,168
Julia Sisler
523
Stacey O’Neill
797
Blaine Pedersen
Morden-Winkler Elizabeth Lynch
215
Cameron Friesen
6,598
Benjamin Bawdon
279
Mike Urichuk
667
Cameron Friesen
Morris Mohamed Alli
840
Shannon Martin
6,980
John Falk
1,430
Shannon Martin
Portage la Prairie Alex MacDonald
697
Ian Wishart
4,635
Stephen Prince
1,238
Ian Wishart

Eastman[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green Other
Dawson Trail Roxane Dupuis
1,674
Bob Lagassé
4,424
Terry Hayward
1,647
David Sutherland (Manitoba)
504
Ron Lemieux
Lac du Bonnet Wendy Sol
1,647
Wayne Ewasko
5,666
Wayne Ewasko
La Verendrye Echo Asher
705
Dennis Smook
5,262
Bill Paulishyn
696
Janine Gibson
724
Dennis Smook
Steinbach Kathleen McCallum
387
Kelvin Goertzen
6,979
Dakota Young-Brown
458
Kelvin Goertzen
St. Paul Andrew Podolecki
1,757
Ron Schuler
7,091
Pete Sanderson
1,055
Ron Schuler
Selkirk Greg Dewar
2,366
Alan Lagimodiere
4,686
Stefan Jones
1,390
Greg Dewar

Northwest Winnipeg[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green Other
Burrows Melanie Wight
1,766
Rae Wagner
1,009
Cindy Lamoureux
2,612
Garrett Bodnaryk
210
Tony Petrowski (Communist)
27
Melanie Wight
Kildonan Dave Chomiak
3,056
Nic Curry
3,688
Navdeep Khangura
965
Steven Stairs
452
Gary Marshall (Manitoba)
133
Dave Chomiak
Point Douglas Kevin Chief
2,789 (58.9%)
Marsha Street
795 (16.8%)
Althea Guiboche
852 (18%)
Alberteen Spence
239 (5.0%)
Frank Komarniski (Communist)
60 (1.3%)
Kevin Chief
St. Johns Nahanni Fontaine
2,358
Barbara Judt
1,869
Noel Bernier
1,465
Elizabeth Puchailo
671
Gord Mackintosh
The Maples Mohinder Saran
2,832
Kaur Sidhu
2,705
Harbans Singh Brar
1,695
John Redekopp
582
Mohinder Saran
Tyndall Park Ted Marcelino
2,139
Naseer Warraich
1,306
Aida Champagne
1,656
Shane Neustaeter
391

Ted Marcelino

Northeast Winnipeg[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green Other
Concordia Matt Wiebe
2,761
Andrew Frank
2,483
Donovan Martin
642
Terry Scott (Manitoba)
254
Matt Wiebe
Elmwood Jim Maloway
2,993
Sarah Langevin
2,886
Albert Ratt (Manitoba)
579
Jim Maloway
Radisson Preet Singh
2,945
James Teitsma
4,635
Scott Newman
1,593
Bidhu Jha
River East Jody Gillis
2,435
Cathy Cox
6,154
Piero Scaramuzzi
776
Bonnie Mitchelson
Rossmere Erna Braun
3,389
Andrew Micklefield
5,303
Malli Aulakh
838
William Sullivan (Manitoba)
427
Erna Braun
St. Boniface Greg Selinger
3,624
Mamadou Ka
2,211
Alain Landry
1,663
Signe Knutson
1,048
Greg Selinger
Transcona Barb Burkowski
2,281
Blair Yakimoski
3,948
Chad Panting
1,465
Darrell Rankin (Communist)
68
Ajit Kumar (Manitoba)
233
Daryl Reid

West Winnipeg[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green Other
Assiniboia Joseph McKellep
2,196
Steven Fletcher
3,450
Ian McCausland
1,631
Ileana Ohlsson
580
Jim Rondeau
Charleswood Janna Barkman
1,168
Myrna Driedger
5,298
Paul Brault
1,187
Kevin Nichols
1,080
Myrna Driedger
Kirkfield Park Sharon Blady
3,075
Scott Fielding
5,457
Kelly Nord
889
Lisa Omand
784
Sharon Blady
St. James Deanne Crothers
2,723
Scott Johnston
3,532
Michelle Finley
1,150
Jeff Buhse
850
Brad Gross (Manitoba)
137
Deanne Crothers
Tuxedo Zach Fleisher
1,299
Heather Stefanson
4,712
Michael Lazar
1,264
Bob Krul
1,250
Heather Stefanson

Central Winnipeg[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green Other
Fort Garry-Riverview James Allum
3,442 (37.9%)
Jeannette Montufar
3,144 (34.6%)
Johanna Wood
793 (8.7%)
James Beddome
1,709 (18.8%)
James Allum
Fort Rouge Wab Kinew
2,275 (36.8%)
Audrey Gordon
1,649 (26.7%)
Rana Bokhari
1,290 (20.9%)
Grant Sharp
790 (12.8%)
Matthew Ostrove (Manitoba)
136 (2.2%)
Paula Ducharme (Communist)
37 (0.6%)
Jennifer Howard
Logan Flor Marcelino
1,505 (40.4%)
Allie Szarkiewicz
720 (19.3%)
Peter Koroma
1,029 (27.6%)
Jitendradas Loves-Life
297 (8%)
Joe Chan (Manitoba)
135 (3.6%)
Cheryl-Anne Carr (Communist)
40 (1.1%)
Flor Marcelino
Minto Andrew Swan
2,925 (51.2%)
Belinda Squance
1,012 (17.7%)
Demetre Balaktsis
693 (12.1%)
Martha Jo Willard
407 (7.1%)
Andrew Taylor (Communist)
41 (0.7%)
Virgil Gil (Manitoba)
49 (0.9%)
Don Woodstock (Ind)
587 (10.3%)
Andrew Swan
River Heights Shafagh Daneshfar
591 (5.9%)
Tracey Maconachie
3,471 (34.5%)
Jon Gerrard
5,224 (51.9%)
Michael Cardillo
778 (7.7%)
Jon Gerrard
Wolseley Rob Altemeyer
3,022 (41.4%)
Raquel Dancho
939 (12.9%)
Shandi Strong
618 (8.8%)
David Nickarz
2,638 (36.2%)
Wayne Sturby (Manitoba)
77 (1.1%)
Rob Altemeyer

South Winnipeg[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green Other
Fort Richmond Kerri Irvin-Ross
2,274
Sarah Guillemard
2,879
Kyra Wilson
814
Cameron Proulx
540
Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Whyte George Wong
1,718
Brian Pallister
6,775
Peter Bastians
1,205
Carli Runions
731
Daryl Newis (Manitoba)
127
Brian Pallister
Riel Christine Melnick
3,053
Rochelle Squires
5,024
Neil Johnston
1,627
Christine Melnick
Seine River Lise Pinkos
2,343
Janice Morley-Lecomte
5,396
Peter Chura
2,388
Theresa Oswald
Southdale Dashi Zargani
2,460
Andrew Smith
6,663
Ryan Colyer
1,318
vacant
St. Norbert Dave Gaudreau
3,062
Jon Reyes
4,673
James Bloomfield
1,251
Narinder Kaur Johar
174
Dave Gaudreau
St. Vital Jamie Moses
2,831
Colleen Mayer
3,229
Bryan Van Wilgenburg
1,296
Kelly Whelan-Enns
791
Nancy Allan

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Erin Selby (Southdale) and Peter Bjornson (Gimli) resigned their seats in 2015.[10] No by-elections were called and their seats remained vacant.

References[edit]

External links[edit]