41st Manitoba general election

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41st Manitoba general election
Manitoba
2011 ←
 On or before April 19, 2016 (2016-04-19) → 42nd
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats needed for a majority
  Greg Selinger cropped.jpg Brian Pallister 2014.jpg
Leader Greg Selinger Brian Pallister
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative
Leader since October 17, 2009 July 30, 2012
Leader's seat St. Boniface Fort Whyte
Last election 37 seats, 46.16% 19 seats, 43.71%
Current seats 36 19
  Canadianbokhari.png James Beddome 2011 - 01.jpg
Leader Rana Bokhari James Beddome
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 26, 2013 November 15, 2014
Leader's seat running in Fort Rouge running in Fort Garry-Riverview
Last election 1 seat, 7.52% 0 seats, 2.52%
Current seats 1 0

MBBoundaries2011-2.jpg
Manitoba's 57 electoral districts
Incumbent Premier

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

The 41st general election of Manitoba, tentatively scheduled for April 19, 2016, will be held to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.[1] The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Premier Greg Selinger, will attempt to win its fifth consecutive term in office. The Official Opposition Progressive Conservatives, who acclaimed Brian Pallister as leader on July 30, 2012,[2] will seek to form a government for the first time since 1999. The Liberals, who elected Rana Bokhari as leader in October 2013, will attempt to win their first election since 1953.

Date[edit]

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election.[3] As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April.[4] Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election has been scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early.[5]

Party standings[edit]

Summary of the current standings of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
Party Leader Seats
2011 Current
New Democratic Greg Selinger 37 35
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 19 19
Liberal Rana Bokhari 1 1
     Independent 0 0
  Vacant 2
Total 57 57

Marginal seats[edit]

The following is a list of ridings lost by 15% or less by the indicated party in the 2011 election (by percentage of the vote the indicated party lost by).

New Democratic Progressive Conservative
  1. Brandon West (PC), 1.68%
  2. River East (PC), 7.15%
  3. Portage la Prairie (PC), 12.85%
  1. Kirkfield Park (NDP), 0.28%
  2. St. Norbert (NDP), 0.36%
  3. Interlake (NDP), 6.91%
  4. Southdale (NDP), 7%
  5. Gimli (NDP), 8.8%
  6. Dawson Trail (NDP), 8.95%
  7. Seine River (NDP), 8.95%
  8. St. James (NDP), 11.37%
  9. River Heights (LIB), 13.15%
  10. Dauphin (NDP), 13.17%
  11. Riel (NDP), 14.68%
  12. Fort Richmond (NDP), 14.76%
Liberal Green
  1. Tyndall Park (NDP), 9.99%
  1. Wolseley (NDP), 40.94%

Incumbents not contesting their seats[edit]

Retiring incumbents[edit]

New Democrats
Progressive Conservatives

Opinion polls[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date of Polling Link NDP PC Liberal Green Other
Probe Research Inc September 23, 2015 PDF 25 45 24 5
Probe Research Inc June 27, 2015 PDF 29 46 19 5
Probe Research Inc April 5, 2015 PDF 29 44 20 7
Probe Research Inc December 12, 2014 HTML 26 48 19 7
Mainstreet Technologies November 3, 2014 HTML 27 53 20
Probe Research Inc October 1, 2014 HTML 30 42 20

8
Probe Research Inc June 19, 2014 HTML 32 45 16 7
Probe Research Inc March 28, 2014 HTML 28 46 23 6
Insightrix Research February 7, 2014 HTML 24 49 18 9
Probe Research Inc December 27, 2013 PDF 26 48 20 6
Probe Research Inc September 28, 2013 HTML 29 43 20 8
Probe Research Inc June 26, 2013 PDF 28 46 17 10
Probe Research Inc April 14, 2013 PDF 35 42 15 8
Probe Research Inc December 14, 2012 PDF 39 43 11 7
Probe Research Inc October 14, 2012 PDF 45 38 11 6
Probe Research Inc June 29, 2012 PDF 44 40 13 3
Probe Research Inc April 4, 2012 PDF 40 45 10 5
2011 election October 4, 2011 46.2 43.7 7.5 2.5 0.1

By-elections since 2011[edit]

Manitoba provincial by-election, April 22, 2015: The Pas
Party Candidate Votes % ∆% Expenditures
New Democratic Amanda Lathlin 1,557 56.47 -16.74
     Progressive Conservative Jacob Nasekapow 817 29.63 +6.18
Liberal Inez Vystrcil-Spence 369 13.38 +10.56
Total valid votes 2,743 100.00
Rejected and declined votes 14
Turnout 2,757 22.10
Electors on the lists 12,475
New Democratic hold Swing
Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Arthur-Virden
Party Candidate Votes % ∆% Expenditures
     Progressive Conservative Doyle Piwniuk 3,137 68.20 +2.23
Liberal Floyd Buhler 738 16.04 +12.23
New Democratic Bob Senff 480 10.43 -19.78
Green Kate Storey 245 5.33
Total valid votes 4,600 100.00
Rejected and declined votes 10
Turnout 4,610 33.55
Electors on the lists 13,739
Progressive Conservative hold Swing -5.00
Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Morris
Party Candidate Votes % ∆% Expenditures
     Progressive Conservative Shannon Martin 2,642 69.99 -4.01
New Democratic Dean Harder 488 12.93 -6.44
Liberal Jeremy Barber 422 11.18 +4.55
     Independent Ray Shaw 138 3.66 -
Green Alain Landry 85 2.25 -
Total valid votes 3,775
Rejected and declined votes 17
Turnout 3,792 27.51
Electors on the lists 13,782
Progressive Conservative hold Swing +1.21
Manitoba provincial by-election, September 4, 2012
Resignation of Hugh McFadyen: Fort Whyte
Party Candidate Votes % ∆%
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 3,626 55.14 -6.99
Liberal Bob Axworthy 2,069 31.47 +23.59
New Democratic Bonny Schmidt 739 11.24 -18.25
Green Donnie H.J Benham 113 1.73 +1.73
Independent Darrell Ackman 19 0.03 +0.03
Spoiled/rejected votes 10 * *
turnout 41.64 * *
Total valid votes 6,576 100.00 [11]

Candidates by riding[edit]

  • Note that names in bold type represent Cabinet members, while italics represent party leaders.

Northern Manitoba[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green   Other
Flin Flon Clarence Pettersen
Kewatinook Edna Nabess Eric Robinson
Swan River Rick Wowchuk Ron Kostyshyn
The Pas Jacob Nasekapow Amanda Lathlin
Thompson Kelly Bindle Steve Ashton

Westman/Parkland[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green   Other
Agassiz Eileen Clarke Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden Doyle Piwniuk Doyle Piwniuk
Brandon East Len IsLeifson Drew Caldwell
Brandon West Reg Helwer Reg Hewler
Dauphin Bradley Michaleski Kate Storey Stan Struthers
Riding Mountain Greg Nesbitt Leanne Rowat
Spruce Woods Cliff Cullen

Cliff Cullen

Central Manitoba[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green   Other
Emerson Cliff Graydon Cliff Graydon
Gimli Jeffrey Wharton vacant
Interlake Derek Johnson Jamal Abas Tom Nevakshonoff
Lakeside Ralph Eichler Ralph Eichler
Midland Blaine Pedersen
Blaine Pedersen
Morden-Winkler Cameron Friesen
Cameron Friesen
Morris Shannon Martin Shannon Martin
Portage la Prairie Ian Wishart Ian Wishart

Eastman[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green   Other
Dawson Trail Ron Lemieux
Lac du Bonnet Wayne Ewasko Wayne Ewasko
La Verendrye Dennis Smook
Dennis Smook
Steinbach Kelvin Goertzen
Kelvin Goertzen
St. Paul Ron Schuler Ron Schuler
Selkirk David Horbas Greg Dewar

Northwest Winnipeg[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green   Other
Burrows Cindy Lamoureux[12] Melanie Wight
Kildonan Nic Curry
Dave Chomiak
Point Douglas Kevin Chief
St. Johns Gord Mackintosh
The Maples Mohinder Saran Kaur Sidhu Christopher Clacio [Ind] Mohinder Saran
Tyndall Park Aida Champagne
Ted Marcelino

Northeast Winnipeg[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green   Other
Concordia Matt Wiebe
Elmwood Sarah Langevin Kurt Berger Jim Maloway
Radisson James Teitsma Scott Newman Alain Landry Bidhu Jha
River East Cathy Cox Bonnie Mitchelson
Rossmere Andrew Micklefield Erna Braun
St. Boniface Mamadou Ka Greg Selinger
Transcona Ajit Kumar [Ind] Daryl Reid

West Winnipeg[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green   Other
Assiniboia Ian McCausland Jim Rondeau
Charleswood Myrna Driedger Myrna Driedger
Kirkfield Park Scott Fielding Sharon Blady
St. James Deanne Crothers
Tuxedo Heather Stefanson Heather Stefanson

Central Winnipeg[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green   Other
Fort Garry-Riverview James Allum Jeannette Montufar James Beddome James Allum
Fort Rouge Jennifer Howard Audrey Gordon Rana Bokhari
Jennifer Howard
Logan Peter Koroma Flor Marcelino
Minto Andrew Swan Belinda Squance Don Woodstock Andrew Swan
River Heights Tracey Maconachie Jon Gerrard Jon Gerrard
Wolseley Stephanie Danyluk David Nickarz Rob Altemeyer

South Winnipeg[edit]

Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  NDP   PC   Liberal   Green   Other
Fort Richmond Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Whyte Brian Pallister Brian Pallister
Riel Christine Melnick Rochelle Squires Neil Johnston Christine Melnick
Seine River Janice Morley-Lecomte Theresa Oswald
Southdale vacant
St. Norbert Dave Gaudreau
St. Vital Jamie Moses[13] Colleen Mayer Nancy Allan

References[edit]

  1. ^ Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election. Retrieved June 24, 2012.
  2. ^ "Brian Pallister takes over Tory leadership in Manitoba". CBC News. July 30, 2012. 
  3. ^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(2).
  4. ^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(3).
  5. ^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(1).
  6. ^ "Demoted Manitoba politician, Jim Rondeau, to leave politics". Global News. April 13, 2015. 
  7. ^ "Former Manitoba cabinet minister not running". Global News. May 13, 2015. 
  8. ^ http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Longtime-NDP-MLA-Nancy-Allan-announces-retirement-305366321.html
  9. ^ http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/columnists/Selingers-shuffle-making-the-best-of-a-bad-situation--301769811.html
  10. ^ a b "MLA Leanne Rowat will not seek reelection". Winnipeg Free Press. September 11, 2014. 
  11. ^ http://electionsmanitoba.ca/2012Fortwhyte/results/division.asp
  12. ^ Manitoba Liberal Party website
  13. ^ http://todaysndp.ca/jamie-moses

External links[edit]
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