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Canadian federal election, 2015

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Canadian federal election, 2015
Canada
2011 ←
members
October 19, 2015 (2015-10-19) → 43rd

338 seats in the House of Commons of Canada
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Stephen-Harper-Cropped-2014-02-18.jpg Tom-Mulcair-Cropped-2014-05-08.jpg Justin Trudeau 2014-1.jpg
Leader Stephen Harper Thomas Mulcair Justin Trudeau
Party Conservative New Democratic Liberal
Leader since March 20, 2004 March 24, 2012 April 14, 2013
Leader's seat Calgary Southwest
running in Calgary Heritage
Outremont Papineau
Last election 166 seats, 39.62% 103 seats, 30.63% 34 seats, 18.91%
Current seats 159 95 36

  Gilles Duceppe2.jpg Emay photo.jpg
SD
Leader Gilles Duceppe Elizabeth May Jean-François Fortin
Party Bloc Québécois Green Strength in Democracy
Leader since June 10, 2015 August 27, 2006 October 21, 2014
Leader's seat Running in Laurier—Sainte-Marie Saanich—Gulf Islands Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
running in Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
Last election 4 seats, 6.04% 1 seat, 3.91% pre-creation
Current seats 2 2 2

Incumbent Prime Minister

Stephen Harper
Conservative

The 2015 Canadian federal election (formally the 42nd Canadian general election) will be held on October 19, 2015 to elect members to the House of Commons of the 42nd Parliament of Canada.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper requested writs of election for a federal general election from Governor General David Johnston on August 2. The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date Canada Elections Act.[1] At eleven weeks, the campaign will be the longest in modern Canadian history.[2]

As a result of the 2012 federal electoral redistribution, the number of electoral districts was increased to 338, with additional seats based on population assigned to Alberta (6), British Columbia (6), Ontario (15), and Quebec (3).

Background[edit]

The 2011 federal election resulted in the continuation of the incumbent Conservative government, headed by Stephen Harper while the New Democratic Party (NDP) became Official Opposition and the Liberal Party became the third party. The Bloc Quebecois won four seats and the Green Party won one seat. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff and Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe resigned shortly after failing to win their own ridings. Bob Rae was chosen as interim leader of the Liberal Party. In July 2011, Jack Layton temporarily stepped down as leader of the NDP, because of cancer, indicating his intention to return to the job for the reconvening of Parliament in September. Weeks later Jack Layton died of cancer and was given a state funeral. In March 2012, Tom Mulcair was elected leader of the New Democratic Party. In April 2013 Justin Trudeau was elected leader of the Liberal Party. Bloc Québécois leader Daniel Paillé stepped down in December 2013 and was eventually replaced in June 2014 by Mario Beaulieu, who in turn was later replaced in June 2015[3] by Duceppe. In late 2014, MPs Jean-François Larose of the NDP and Jean-François Fortin of the Bloc formed the new political party Strength in Democracy.

As set forth in the Fair Representation Act,[4] the number of seats in the House of Commons to be contested in the 42nd Canadian federal election will be 338, an increase of thirty seats from the 308 seats comprising the House of Commons of Canada of the 41st Parliament of Canada, at its dissolution.[5]

Current standings[edit]

e • d Summary of the 2015 Canadian federal election
Party Party leader Candidates
as of 2 Sep
Seats Popular vote
2011 Dissol. 2015  % Change  % seats # # Change  % pp Change
Conservative Stephen Harper 321 166 159 Pending
New Democratic Thomas Mulcair 330 103 95 Pending
Liberal Justin Trudeau 330 34 36 Pending
  Independent 28 0 8 Pending
Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe 76 4 2 Pending
Green Elizabeth May 234 1 2 Pending
Strength in Democracy Jean-François Fortin 15 N/A 2 Pending
Libertarian Tim Moen 91 0 0 Pending
Marxist–Leninist Anna Di Carlo 33 0 0 Pending
Communist Miguel Figueroa 29 0 0 Pending
Christian Heritage Rod Taylor 24 0 0 Pending
Rhinoceros[note 1] Sébastien Corriveau 18 0 0 Pending
Animal Alliance Liz White 7 0 0
Democratic Advancement Stephen Garvey 5 N/A 0 Pending
Pirate Roderick Lim 5 0 0 Pending
Canadian Action Jeremy Arney 3 0 0 Pending
Marijuana Blair Longley 2 0 0 Pending
  No Affiliation 3 0 0 Pending
  Vacant 4
Total 1,554 308 308 338 Pending
Rejected, spoiled, or declined Pending

Opinion polls[edit]

Evolution of voting intentions during the 2015 Canadian federal election on October 19, 2015. Points represent results of individual polls. Trend lines represent three-poll moving averages.

Evolution of voting intentions during the campaign leading up to the 2015 Canadian federal election to be held on October 19, 2015. Points represent results of individual polls. Trend lines represent three-poll moving averages.

Election spending[edit]

Pre-campaign, there are no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend — spending rules are only in force once the writ is dropped and the campaign has officially begun. If the election period is set longer than the standard 37-day election period, spending limits are increased in proportion to the length of the period.[6]

Spending limits for the 2015 federal election

2015 Spending Limit[7] 2011 Spending Limit Notes
Political Parties $54,475,840[8] $21,025,793 If full slate of candidates.
Party Candidates (electoral district average) $73,611,590[9] ($217,786) $28,244,499 ($91,703) If full slate of candidates. Each electoral district is subject to specific spending limits according to population and density.[10] In 2011, the limits for candidates varied from $69,635 in the electoral district of Malpeque, Prince Edward Island, to $134,352 in Oak Ridges–Markham, Ontario.[11]
Total Limit per Party $128,087,430 $49,270,292 If full slate of candidates.
Third Parties (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) $439,411 [12] $150,000 Election advertising expenses limit. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.[12]

Election spending during the 2015 federal election

Party Total Spending (% of limit) Party Spending (% of limit) Total Candidate Spending (% of limit) # Candidates Spending > 75% of Candidate Limit # Candidates Spending > 50% of Candidate Limit
Conservative $ $ (%) $ (%)
NDP $ $ (%) $ (%)
Liberal $ $ (%) $ (%)

Election spending during the 2011 federal election[13]

Party Total Spending (% of limit) Party Spending (% of limit) Total Candidate Spending (% of limit) # Candidates Spending > 75% of Candidate Limit # Candidates Spending > 50% of Candidate Limit
Conservative $39,175,131 (80%) $19,519,995 (93%) $19,655,136 (70%) 173 228
NDP $27,490,193 (56%) $20,372,231 (97%) $7,117,962 (25%) 44 70
Liberal $34,025,109 (69%) $19,507,746 (93%) $14,517,363 (41%) 91 169

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates

Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the official writ period. Similarly, electoral district associations receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the official writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.[11]

Fundraising

While it is difficult to estimate the total party resources ahead of an election, financing numbers released by Elections Canada show that during the financial quarter preceding the writ period, the Conservatives received $7.4 million dollars in contributions, followed by the NDP at $4.5 million, and the Liberals at $4.0 million.[14] The NDP had the most individual donors at 48,314, followed by the Conservatives at 45,532 and then the Liberals at 32,789.[14][15]

At the riding level, financial reports in each of the 338 constituencies showed that in Conservative electoral district associations ended 2014 with net assets totalling more than $19 million, Liberal riding associations reported a total of about $8 million in net assets, and NDP associations more than $4.4 million.[16]

Individuals are able to give up to $1,500 to each political party and an additional $1,500 to all the registered associations, nomination contestants and candidates of each registered party combined.[17]

Registered Third Parties

A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more.[18] There are strict limits on advertising expenses, as well as specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. Currently there are 11 registered third parties in the 2015 election.

Leaders' debates[edit]

Traditionally, party leaders participated in two nationally televised debates during the federal election - once in English and once in French. These debates were produced by a consortium of Canada's major television networks.[19] In May 2015, the Conservatives said they would not participate in the consortium debates and instead would take part in as many as five independently staged debates in the run-up to the fall federal election.[19] Ultimately, the Conservatives agreed to participate in a French-language debate organized by the consortium of broadcasters as one of their five debates.[20] The New Democratic Party confirmed that Tom Mulcair will accept every debate where the Prime Minister is present. The NDP had previously confirmed their intention to participate in both of the consortium debates before Stephen Harper withdrew[21][22] but have confirmed their attendance at the French language consortium debate which includes the Conservatives.[20] The Liberals confirmed Justin Trudeau's intention to attend the Globe and Mail and consortium debates.[22][23][24][25][26] The Bloc Québécois confirmed their attendance at the French-language TVA and French language consortium debates. The Green Party attended the Maclean's debate and confirmed their intention to participate in the English language consortium debate.[22][25][27] Strength in Democracy, which also has two seats in the House of Commons, were not invited to participate in any of the televised debates. The leaders of the party objected to their exclusion and launched a petition demanding that all parties represented in Parliament be invited to the debates.[28] Other minor parties without representation in the House of Commons were not invited to participate in any of the televised debates.

Completed televised debates:

Subject Participants Date Organizer Location Notes
General Conservatives; NDP; Liberals; Greens August 6[29] Rogers Media,[30]
(Maclean's, City)
Toronto English language debate hosted by Maclean's magazine, with live translations into French, Italian, Mandarin, Cantonese and Punjabi. Aired on City stations (English), CPAC (French), and Omni Television stations (all other languages); streamed live at macleans.ca and all networks' websites, Facebook, and YouTube; and on Rogers Media news radio stations. The moderator was Paul Wells.[31]

Confirmed televised debates:

Subject Participants Date Organizer Location Notes
Economy Conservatives; Liberals;[23][26] NDP;[20] September 17[26] The Globe and Mail and Google Canada[32] Calgary English language debate on the Canadian economy. The first half of the 90-minute debate will cover five central themes on the economy: Jobs, energy and the environment, infrastructure, housing and taxation. The second half leaves time to look more closely at the leaders’ earlier answers, and to pose questions sent in by voters. Aired on CPAC in both official languages, streamed live on The Globe and Mail’s website, and distributed on YouTube.
General Conservatives; NDP; Liberals; Greens; Bloc Québécois[20] September 24[20] Consortium (CBC/Radio-Canada, CTV, Global, Télé-Québec) Montreal French language debate organized by the consortium of broadcasters.[20][22]
Foreign Policy Conservatives; NDP; Liberals[20] September 28[20] Aurea Foundation[33] and Facebook Canada[34] Toronto Bilingual[20] debate on Canada's foreign policy, hosted as part of the foundations's regular Munk Debates.[24] Aired on CPAC in both official languages, streamed live on the Munk Debates website, and distributed on Facebook.[34]
General Conservatives; NDP; Liberals; Bloc Québécois;[35] October 2[35] TVA Montreal French language debate organized by private broadcaster TVA, moderated by Pierre Bruneau.
General Liberals; Greens; NDP (yet to confirm)[22] October 8[22] Consortium (CBC/Radio-Canada, CTV, Global, Télé-Québec) TBA English language debate organized by the consortium of broadcasters.[22][20]

For a list of all proposed televised debates see 2015 Canadian Leaders' Debates

Campaign slogans[edit]

Conservative Party
"Proven leadership for a strong Canada."[36]
"Safer Canada/Stronger Economy"[37]
New Democratic Party
"Ready for Change."[38]
Liberal Party
"Real Change."[39]
Bloc Québécois
"Des Gains Pour le Québec" ("Gains for Quebec")[40]
Green Party
"A Canada That Works. Together."[41]
Strength in Democracy
"Empowering our regions, uniting our strengths."[42]

Leadership elections: 2011–15[edit]

Candidates by party[edit]

Articles on parties' candidates for the 42nd election:

Incumbent MPs who will not run for re-election[edit]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Rhino candidates include one candidate in Prince George whose exact riding is not stated.

References[edit]

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  3. ^ "DUCEPPE, Gilles". House of Commons of Canada. Retrieved August 8, 2015. 
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  7. ^ "Elections Canada Online - Expenses Limits". elections.ca. Retrieved August 3, 2015. 
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  9. ^ "Elections Canada Online - Preliminary Candidates Election Expenses Limits". elections.ca. Retrieved August 10, 2015. 
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External links[edit]