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42nd Canadian federal election

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42nd Canadian federal election
Canada
2011 ←
members
Tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015 (2015-10-19) → 43rd

338 seats in the House of Commons of Canada
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Stephen-Harper-Cropped-2014-02-18.jpg Tom-Mulcair-Cropped-2014-05-08.jpg Justin Trudeau 2014-1.jpg
Leader Stephen Harper Thomas Mulcair Justin Trudeau
Party Conservative New Democratic Liberal
Leader since March 20, 2004 March 24, 2012 April 14, 2013
Leader's seat Calgary Southwest
running in Calgary Heritage
Outremont Papineau
Last election 166 seats, 39.62% 103 seats, 30.63% 34 seats, 18.91%
Current seats 159 95 36

  Gilles Duceppe2.jpg Emay photo.jpg
SD
Leader Gilles Duceppe Elizabeth May Jean-François Fortin
Party Bloc Québécois Green Strength in Democracy
Leader since July 1, 2015 August 27, 2006 October 21, 2014
Leader's seat Not seated in House of Commons
Running in riding TBD
Saanich—Gulf Islands Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
running in Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
Last election 4 seats, 6.04% 1 seat, 3.91% pre-creation
Current seats 2 2 2

Incumbent Prime Minister

Stephen Harper
Conservative

The 42nd Canadian general election, to elect members to the House of Commons of Canada of the 42nd Parliament of Canada, is scheduled to occur on October 19, 2015.[1]

Amendment to the Canada Elections Act[edit]

As set forth in the Canada Elections Act,[2][3] a general election is to be held on the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following the polling day for the preceding general election.[4] As such, the election for the 42nd Canadian parliament is to take place on October 19, 2015.

The Canada Elections Act, however, does not affect the power of the Governor General of Canada to call an election at any time prior to that date.[2][5] Such an act of the royal prerogative is carried out on the advice of the prime minister, which, by convention, the governor general must almost always follow.

If the date set for the election conflicts with another Canadian provincial, territorial, or municipal election, or a cultural or religious holiday, the Chief Electoral Officer may recommend to the Governor-in-Council that the election be moved one day or one week later. If the date of the election is to be moved, it must be ordered by the Governor-in-Council no later than August 1, 2015.[2] Municipal elections for cities, towns and villages are scheduled for the same day in Nunavut (1) and the Northwest Territories (6).[6]

2012 federal electoral redistribution[edit]

As set forth in the Fair Representation Act,[7] which received Royal Assent and came into force on December 16, 2011, the number of seats in the House of Commons to be contested in the 42nd Canadian federal election will be 338, an increase of thirty seats from the current 308 seats that make up the House of Commons of the 41st Parliament.[8]

Current standings[edit]

e • d  Summary of the current standings of the House of Commons of Canada
Party Party leader Seats
2011 Current
Conservative Stephen Harper 166 159
New Democratic Thomas Mulcair 103 95
Liberal Justin Trudeau 34 36
  Independent 0 8
Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe 4 2
Green Elizabeth May 1 2
  Strength in Democracy Jean-François Fortin N/A 2
  Vacant 4
Total 308 308

Timeline[edit]

2015[edit]

Opinion polls[edit]

Evolution of voting intentions since the 41st Canadian federal election on May 2, 2011. Points represent results of individual polls. Trend lines represent three-poll moving averages.

Election spending[edit]

Pre-campaign, there are no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend — spending rules are only in force once the writ is dropped and the campaign has officially begun. If the election period is set longer than the typical 37-day election period, spending limits increase.[21]

Spending limits for the 2015 federal election

2015 Spending Limit 2011 Spending Limit Notes
Political Parties $ $21,025,793.23 If full slate of candidates.
Party Candidates (Average electoral district) $ ($) $28,244,498.50 ($91,702.92) If full slate of candidates. Each electoral district is subject to specific spending limits according to population and density.[22] In 2011, the limits for candidates varied from $69,635 in the electoral district of Malpeque, Prince Edward Island, to $134,352 in Oak Ridges–Markham, Ontario.[23]
TOTAL LIMIT $ $49,270,291.73 If full slate of candidates.
Third Parties (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) $ $150,000 Election advertising expenses limit. Of that amount, no more than $4,116 can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.[24]


Election spending during the 2015 federal election

Party Total Spending (% of limit) Party Election Spending (% of limit) Total Candidate Spending (% of limit) # Candidates Spending > 75% of Candidate Limit # Candidates Spending > 50% of Candidate Limit
Conservative $ $ (%) $ (%)
NDP $ $ (%) $ (%)
Liberal $ $ (%) $ (%)

Election spending during the 2011 federal election[25]

Party Total Spending (% of limit) Party Election Spending (% of limit) Total Candidate Spending (% of limit) # Candidates Spending > 75% of Candidate Limit # Candidates Spending > 50% of Candidate Limit
Conservative $39,175,131 (80%) $19,519,995 (93%) $19,655,136 (70%) 173 228
NDP $27,490,193 (56%) $20,372,231 (97%) $7,117,962 (25%) 44 70
Liberal $34,025,109 (69%) $19,507,746 (93%) $14,517,363 (41%) 91 169

Fundraising

While it is difficult to estimate the total amount of parties' available resources, financing numbers released by Elections Canada show during the quarter preceding the anticipated writ period, the Conservatives received $7.4 million dollars in contributions, followed by the NDP at $4.5 million, and the Liberals at $4.0 million.[26] The NDP had the most individual donors at 48,314, followed by the Conservatives at 45,532 and then the Liberals at 32,789.[26][27]

At the riding level, 2014 financial reports in each of the 338 constituencies shows that Conservative electoral district associations ended 2014 with net assets totalling more than $19 million, Liberal riding associations reported a total of about $8 million in net assets, and NDP associations more than $4.4 million.[28]

Leaders' debates[edit]

Traditionally, party leaders participated in two televised debates during the federal election - once in English and once in French. These debates were produced by a consortium of major television broadcasters, including CBC, Radio-Canada, CTV and Global.[29] In May 2015, the Conservatives said they would not participate in the traditional leaders’ debates and instead would take part in as many as five independently staged debates in the run-up to the fall federal election.[29] The New Democratic Party confirmed that Tom Mulcair will accept every debate where the Prime Minister is present.[30] Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has been invited to all four confirmed debates, but to date has only confirmed his participation in the Macleans debate.[31][32][33] The Bloc has been confirmed their attendance at the French language TVA debate and the Green Party has confirmed their attendance at the Macleans debate.[33][34] Strength in Democracy has not been invited to participate in any of the debates.

Confirmed debates:

Subject Participants Date Organizer (location) Notes
General Conservatives; NDP; Liberals; Greens August 6, 2015[35] Macleans Magazine, Rogers, and CityTV[36] (Toronto) English language debate, with live translations into French, Italian, Mandarin, Cantonese and Punjabi. Aired on City, OMNI.1, OMNI.2, and CPAC; streamed live at Macleans.ca, Citytv.com, CityNews.ca, OMNItv.ca, CPAC.ca, Facebook, YouTube; and on Rogers radio stations.
Economy Conservatives; NDP; Liberals (yet to confirm)[31] September Globe and Mail and Google Canada[37] (Calgary) English language debate on the Canadian economy. Streamed live on The Globe’s website and distributed on YouTube.
Foreign Policy Conservatives; NDP; Liberals (yet to confirm)[32] September Munk School of Global Affairs[38] (Toronto) English language debate on Canada's foreign policy.[32]
General Conservatives; NDP; Liberals (yet to confirm);[33] Bloc October 5, 2015[35] TVA (Montreal) French language debate.[33]

Leadership elections: 2011-15[edit]

Candidates by party[edit]

Articles on parties' candidates for the 42nd election:

Incumbent MPs who will not run for re-election[edit]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

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  3. ^ Canada Elections Act, S.C. 2000, c.9., as Amended, Queen's Printer for Canada, October 1, 2014, retrieved January 15, 2015 
  4. ^ "Fixed-Date Elections In Canada". Parliament of Canada. Retrieved May 4, 2011. 
  5. ^ Department of Justice (January 14, 2015), Constitution Act, 1982, retrieved January 15, 2015
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External links[edit]