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Opinion polling for the 2008 New Zealand general election

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See also: Opinion polling for the 2011 New Zealand general election

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 48th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2008 election by various organisations, the main four being Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2008 election

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Summary of poll results up to 7 November 2008 for all political parties that have exceeded the 5.0% mixed member proportional representation (MMP) threshold. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Labour scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|National scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"|NZ First scope="col" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Māori scope="col" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|Green scope="col" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|ACT scope="col" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|United
Future 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Prog
2005 election result 17 September 2005 41.1 39.1 5.7 2.1 5.3 1.5 2.7 1.2
Roy Morgan Research[1] 17 September–2 October 2005 36.5 41.5 4.5 3 9 1.5 3 1
Roy Morgan Research[1] 4–16 October 2005 39 40.5 5 2 7 1.5 3.5 1
Roy Morgan Research[1] 18–31 October 2005 37.5 40 6 1 9 1 3.5 0.5
3 News TNS[2] 27 October–2 November 2005 44 37 3.5 2.5 7 1.5 2.5 0.7
One News Colmar Brunton[3] 20 November 2005 40 44 4 2 7 1 1
Herald-DigiPoll[4] 30 November 2005[nb 1] 43.8 41.7 3.8 1.5 5.3 1.5 1.3
One News Colmar Brunton[5] 11 December 2005 37 46 4 2.1 7
Roy Morgan International[6] 13–23 January 2006 39 40.5 4.5 1.5 8.5 1.5 3.0 0.0
Sunday Star-Times/BRC[7] 16–25 January 2006 42 43 4 1 6 1 1
3 News TNS[2] 26 January–2 February 2006 44 38 3.4 1.7 7 1.2 1.5 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[8] 19 February 2006 42 45 4 2 6 1 1
3 News TNS[2] 23–29 March 2006 43 40 4.3 3 6 1.1 1.9 0.2
Herald-DigiPoll[9] 10 April 2006 43.4 44.6 3.9 2.1 5.2 1.1 1.5
3 News TNS[2] 4–10 May 2006 42 41 3.8 2.2 6 1.8 1.9 0.2
18 May 2006  – 2006 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
One News Colmar Brunton[10] 22–25 May 2006 38 47 4 3 5 1.1 1.4 0.1
3 News TNS[2] 29 June–5 July 2006 46 39 3.8 1.3 6 0.8 1.1 0.4
One News Colmar Brunton[11] 16 July 2006 43 45 2 2 4 2 0.8
One News Colmar Brunton[12] 7–10 August 2006 43 45 3 2.6 3 0.9 1.5 0.4
Herald-DigiPoll[13] 31 August 2006[nb 1] 38.7 46.4 2.8 3.4 5.8 0.7 1.1 0.2
3 News TNS[2] 24–30 August 2006 43 40 3.2 2.8 7 1 1.2 0.2
Roy Morgan Research[14] 28 August–10 September 2006 41 38 5.5 3 8.5 1.5 2 0.5
13 September 2006 – National Party leader Don Brash takes leave to sort out marital problems amidst rumours he had an affair.[15]
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color"|Labour scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color"|National scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color"|NZ First scope="col" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color"|Māori scope="col" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color"|Green scope="col" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color"|ACT scope="col" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color"|United Future scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Prog
Herald-DigiPoll[16] 22–24 September 2006 38 45.7 2.8 4.1 6.8 1.4 0.7 0.3
One News Colmar Brunton[17] 18–21 September 2006 38 49 – 3 6 – – –
Roy Morgan Research[18] 16 September–1 October 2006 36 41.5 7 2.5 8.5 1.5 2.5 –
Roy Morgan Research[19] 2–15 October 2006 40 40 5 1.5 8.5 2 1.5 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[20] 16–19 October 2006 36 49 2.5 2.4 6 0.5 0.9 0.2
Roy Morgan Research[21] 16–29 October 2006 38.5 41 3 2.5 8 1.5 3 –
3 News TNS[22] 26 October–1 November 2006 42 40 2.4 3.4 7 1.5 1.9 0.2
Roy Morgan Research[23] 30 October–12 November 2006 38.5 42.5 5 2.5 7.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[24] 13–26 November 2006 37.5 42.5 4.5 2 8 1.5 3 –
27 November 2006 – John Key becomes leader of the National Party.
Herald-DigiPoll[25] 14 November–2 December 2006 41.7 42.8 3.4 2 6.1 1 1.6 0.4
Roy Morgan Research[26] 27 November–12 December 2006 37.5 44.5 4 1 9.5 0.5 2 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[27] 3–21 January 2007 41 41 4 2 7.5 1.5 1 0.5
3 News TNS[28] 25 January–1 February 2007 44 41 2.8 2 8 0.8 0.8 0.1
Roy Morgan Research[1] 23 January–5 February 2007 39.5 41.5 4 2 8 1.5 2.5 0.5
13 February 2007 – Taito Phillip Field is expelled from the Labour Party caucus after saying he would stand for election at the 2008 election, either with Labour or as an independent.
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color"|Labour scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color"|National scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color"|NZ First scope="col" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color"|Māori scope="col" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color"|Green scope="col" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color"|ACT scope="col" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color"|United Future scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Prog
One News Colmar Brunton[29] 12–15 February 2007 39 46 2.2 3.1 7 1.3 0.5 0.4
Roy Morgan Research[30] 6–18 February 2007 36 48.5 3 1.5 8.5 1 1.5 –
Roy Morgan Research[31] 19 February–4 March 2007 36 45 2 3.5 8.5 2.5 1.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[32] 5–18 March 2007 37.5 45 4 3.5 7.5 1 1.5 –
One News Colmar Brunton[33] 17–22 March 2007 37 46 2 3.4 7 1.5 1.6 0.1
3 News TNS[34] 22–28 March 2007 44 42 1.2 3.4 5.6 1.2 0.7 0.2
Roy Morgan Research[35] 19 March–2 April 2007 35.5 46 3.5 2.5 9.5 1 1 –
Roy Morgan Research[36] 3–16 April 2007 33.5 45.5 6 2 8.5 1 2 –
One News Colmar Brunton[37] 14–19 April 2007 39 49 2 1.7 6 1 0.6 0.2
Roy Morgan Research[38] 23 April–6 May 2007 36 49.5 4.5 1.5 6 0.5 1.5 –
3 News TNS[39] 3–9 May 2007 36 48 2.4 3.7 8 0.5 0.6 0.1
16 May 2007 – Parliament passes the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007.
17 May 2007  – 2007 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research[40] 7–20 May 2007 32 49 4.5 2.5 7 1.5 1.5 –
Herald-DigiPoll[41] 18–24 May 2007 33.6 50.9 3.2 1.7 6.1 0.7 0.8 0.4
One News Colmar Brunton[42] 19–24 May 2007 31 56 2.1 2.9 6 0.4 1 0.2
Roy Morgan Research[43] 21 May–3 June 2007 33.5 50.5 3.5 1.5 6.5 0.5 2 0.5
7 June 2007 – The Reserve Bank intervenes in the currency market by selling New Zealand Dollars in an attempt halt the increase in value of the currency.
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color"|Labour scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color"|National scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color"|NZ First scope="col" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color"|Māori scope="col" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color"|Green scope="col" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color"|ACT scope="col" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color"|United Future scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Prog
Roy Morgan Research[44] 4–17 June 2007 36 49.5 3 1.5 6.5 1.5 0.5 0.5
Herald-DigiPoll[45] 4–22 June 2007 40.1 48.2 3 2.4 4 0.6 0.3 –
Roy Morgan Research[46] 18 June–1 July 2007 34 48.5 2.5 2 8.5 1 1.5 1
1 July 2007 – Introduction of several government policies, including 20 hours funded childcare for 3 and 4 year olds and the Kiwisaver retirement savings scheme.
One News Colmar Brunton[47] 30 June–5 July 2007 36 52 2.3 2.6 5 0.3 0.6 0.4
3 News TNS[48] 5–11 July 2007 36 48 2.6 2.7 6 1.2 1.1 –
UMR Research[49] c. 15 July 2007 36 50 2.3 2.6 7.1 0.4 0.8 –
Roy Morgan Research[50] 2–15 July 2007 36 47 5 2 6.5 1.5 1 0.5
Herald-DigiPoll[51] 5–19 July 2007 42 48.5 2 1.8 4 0.4 0.3 –
Roy Morgan Research[52] 16–29 July 2007 35 49 4 3 6 0.5 0.5 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[53] 4–9 August 2007 36 53 2.6 1 5 1.2 0.5 0.2
UMR Research[49] c. 15 August 2007 35 49 2.9 2.1 7.7 0.6 1.1 –
Roy Morgan Research[54] 30 July–12 August 2007 31 50.5 4 3 7 1.5 2 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[55] 20 August–2 September 2007 34 48 2.5 3 9.5 1 0.5 0.5
3 News TNS[2] 30 August–5 September 2007 37 47 3.2 1.8 7 1.5 0.1 –
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[56] 15 September 2007 36 50 3 2 6 1 1 0
One News Colmar Brunton[57] 8–13 September 2007 39 49 2.9 2.8 5 0.8 0.5 0.3
Roy Morgan Research[58] 3–16 September 2007 35 49 2.5 3 7.5 1.5 1 –
UMR Research[59] 13–19 September 2007 34 51 2.8 2.6 6.7 0.9 0.4 –
Herald-DigiPoll[60] 29 September 2007[nb 1] 39.6 44.8 3.1 2.8 7.2 1.1 0.4 0.2
Roy Morgan Research[61] 17–30 September 2007 33 48.5 3 2.5 9.5 1 1.5 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[62] 6–11 October 2007 37 49 1.9 2.8 6 0.6 0.4 0.1
Roy Morgan Research[63] 1–14 October 2007 39 45.5 3 2 7.5 0.5 1.5 –
UMR Research[49] 11–15 October 2007 38 49 2.6 1.2 6.9 0.8 0.5 –
15 October 2007 – Operation 8 police raids on activists.
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color"|Labour scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color"|National scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color"|NZ First scope="col" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color"|Māori scope="col" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color"|Green scope="col" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color"|ACT scope="col" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color"|United Future scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Prog
Herald-DigiPoll[64] 8–28 October 2007 38.8 51.2 1.8 1.8 5.4 0.2 0.2 –
Roy Morgan Research[65] 15–28 October 2007 40.5 45 3.5 1.5 6.5 1 1.5 –
Roy Morgan Research[66] 29 October–11 November 2007 34 48 5.5 2.5 7.5 1 1 –
12 November 2007 – The New Zealand Herald dedicates its front page to criticism of the Electoral Finance Bill under headline "Democracy under attack".
Herald-DigiPoll[67] 8–26 November 2007 38.1 51.3 2.1 3 3.5 0.7 0.4 0.3
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[68] 17 November 2007[nb 1] 40 45 3 3 5 1 1 0
Roy Morgan Research[69] 12–25 November 2007 35 48 5 2.5 6.5 1.5 0.5 0.5
3 News TNS[2] 8–13 December 2007 36 51 2.2 2.8 4.8 0.9 0.7 –
One News Colmar Brunton[70] 8–13 December 2007 35 54 2.2 1.7 4.6 0.8 0.5 0.1
Roy Morgan Research[71] 26 November–9 December 2007 34.5 47.5 5 2 6 1.5 0.5 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[72] 3–20 January 2008 33.5 52 3.5 2 6.5 1 0.5 0.5
Herald-DigiPoll[73] 10–24 January 2008 38.7 47.5 3 1 9.1 0.7 0 0
3 News TNS[2] 23–30 January 2008 35 49 3 3 7 0.5 0.5 –
29 January, 30 January 2008 – John Key and Helen Clark open their election year campaigns with speeches focusing on youth issues.
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color"|Labour scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color"|National scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color"|NZ First scope="col" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color"|Māori scope="col" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color"|Green scope="col" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color"|ACT scope="col" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color"|United Future scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Prog
Roy Morgan Research[74] 21 January–3 February 2008 36.5 45.5 4 2 9 2 0.5 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[75] 9–14 February 2008 34 53 1.7 3.3 6 0.9 0.2 –
Roy Morgan Research[76] 4–17 February 2008 32.5 51.5 3 3 8 0.5 0.5 0.5
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[77] 13–19 February 2008 32 55 3 2 6 1 0 0
3 News TNS[2] 19–26 February 2008 35 51 3 2 7 1 0.1 0.1
Herald-DigiPoll[78] 11–28 February 2008 36.5 54.5 2.1 1.5 4.4 0.4 0.4 0
Roy Morgan Research[79] 18 February–2 March 2008 35 49.5 4 2 7 1 0.5 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[80] 8–13 March 2008 35 50 2.5 3.3 7 0.9 0.3 0.1
Roy Morgan Research[81] 3–16 March 2008 34 51 3 2 6.5 1.5 1 0.5
Herald-DigiPoll[82] 6–27 March 2008 39.3 49.9 1.1 3.7 3.9 1.1 0 –
Roy Morgan Research[83] 24 March–6 April 2008 34.5 47 4 3 9 1.5 0.5 0.5
3 News TNS[84] 10–16 April 2008 38 48 3.4 2.9 5.8 0.5 0.3 –
One News Colmar Brunton[85] 12–17 April 2008 35 54 1.5 3.2 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.1
Roy Morgan Research[86] 7–20 April 2008 35.5 50 3.5 2.5 6.5 1.5 0.5 –
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[87] 9–22 April 2008 34 52 3 3 6 0 1 1
Herald-DigiPoll[88] 5–26 April 2008 37.2 52.1 1.5 2.9 5.2 0.4 0.1 0
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color"|Labour scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color"|National scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color"|NZ First scope="col" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color"|Māori scope="col" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color"|Green scope="col" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color"|ACT scope="col" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color"|United Future scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Prog
Roy Morgan Research[89] 21 April–4 May 2008 35.5 49.5 4.5 2 6.5 1 1 –
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[90] 7–13 May 2008 29 56 5 2 6 1 0 0
17 May 2008  – 2008 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research[91] 5–18 May 2008 35 49 4 2.5 7.5 1 .5 –
Herald-DigiPoll[92] 5–28 May 2008 36.2 51.5 1.9 2.2 6.4 0.7 0.4 0
3 News TNS[93] 23–29 May 2008 35 50 3.9 2 5.8 1 0.2 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton[94] 24–29 May 2008 29 55 4.4 2.5 7 1.2 0.2 0.1
Roy Morgan Research[95] 19 May–1 June 2008 32 50.5 4 3 7 1.5 1 –
Roy Morgan Research[96] 2–15 June 2008 31.5 52.5 4 2 7 2 0.5 –
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[97] 11–17 June 2008 30 54 3 2 7 1 1 –
One News Colmar Brunton[98] 14–19 June 2008 29 55 3.2 4.4 7 0.8 0.4 0
Herald-DigiPoll[99] 6–25 June 2008 32.4 54.9 3.3 1.8 5.9 0.8 0.1 –
Roy Morgan Research[100] 16–29 June 2008 30.5 51.5 4 2.5 8 2 1 –
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color"|Labour scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color"|National scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color"|NZ First scope="col" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color"|Māori scope="col" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color"|Green scope="col" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color"|ACT scope="col" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color"|United Future scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Prog
Roy Morgan Research[101] 30 June–13 July 2008 31 52 6.5 1 7.5 0.5 1 –
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[102] 9–15 July 2008 35 51 4 2 5 1 0 –
One News Colmar Brunton[103] 12–17 July 2008 35 52 2.4 1.7 6 1.2 0.3 0
3 News TNS[104] Released 18 July 2008 35 48 4 2 7 1 0.3 0
Herald-DigiPoll[105] Released 29 July 2008 30.8 55.4 4.1 2.6 5.5 0.2 0.9 –
Roy Morgan Research[106] 14–27 July 2008 32.5 47.5 5 3 8 2.5 0.5 –
Roy Morgan Research[107] 28 July–10 August 2008 34 48 6.5 2 7.5 1.5 0 –
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[108] 6–12 August 2008 35 54 3 2 4 1 0 –
One News Colmar Brunton[109] 9–14 August 2008 37 51 2.6 3.1 3.5 0.6 0.7 0.1
3 News TNS[110] 14–20 August 2008 37 48 3 2 6 2 1 0
Roy Morgan Research[111] 18–31 August 2008 38 44.5 2.5 3.5 8 1.5 1 –
Herald-DigiPoll[112] 3–25 August 2008 36.3 50 2.1 3.1 5.1 2.3 0 –
One News Colmar Brunton[113] 6–11 September 2008 35 53 1.8 1.8 5 2 0 0
11 September 2008 – Parliament passes a law creating the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme.[114]
12 September 2008 – Helen Clark announces the election will be held 8 November 2008.[115]
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color"|Labour scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color"|National scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color"|NZ First scope="col" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color"|Māori scope="col" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color"|Green scope="col" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color"|ACT scope="col" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color"|United Future scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Prog
Roy Morgan Research[116] 1–14 September 2008 36.5 47.5 5 1.5 6.5 1.5 0.5 –
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[117] 10–16 September 2008 34 52 3 3 5 1 – –
Herald-DigiPoll[118] 15–24 September 2008 35.7 51.4 2.8 1.9 4.9 1.1 0.4 0.4
3 News TNS[119] 18–24 September 2008 36 49 3 2 5 2 0 0
One News Colmar Brunton[120] 27 September–2 October 2008 33 52 2.0 2.5 7 1.5 0.7 0.3
Roy Morgan Research[121] 22 September –5 October 2008 37.5 40.5 4 2 9 3.5 1 1
3 News TNS[122] Released 10 October 2008 39 45 2.7 2.5 6.7 1.8 0.1 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton[123] 4–9 October 2008 33 51 2.6 2.8 8 1.6 0.1 0.3
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[124] 8–14 October 2008 33 51 3 2 7 1 1 0
One News Colmar Brunton[125] 11–16 October 2008 36 50 2.1 2.1 5 2.1 0.5 0.5
3 News TNS[126] Released 23 October 2008 37.4 45.1 3.5 2.3 8.8 1.7 0.2 0.1
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color"|Labour scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color"|National scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color"|NZ First scope="col" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color"|Māori scope="col" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color"|Green scope="col" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color"|ACT scope="col" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color"|United Future scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Progressive Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Prog
Roy Morgan Research[127] 6–19 October 2008 32 43 4.5 2.5 11.5 3.5 0.5 0.5
Herald-DigiPoll[128] 15–22 October 2008 37.0 50.4 2.1 2.4 5.4 1.2 0.2 0.3
One News Colmar Brunton[129] 18–23 October 2008 35.0 47.0 3.0 3.0 8.0 2.0 0.4 0.0
3 News TNS[130] Released 6 November 2008 33.1 46.0 3.4 2.7 9.0 2.8 0.2 0.3
One News Colmar Brunton[131] 1–5 November 2008 35.0 47.0 2.4 1.3 9.0 2.5 0.4 0.4
Herald-DigiPoll[132] 29 October–5 November 2008 36.4 47.9 3.9 2.3 5.8 1.8 0.7 0.2
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[133] Released 7 November 2008 31 49 3 3 8 4 1 –
Roy Morgan Research[134] 20 October–2 November 2008 34.5 42 4.5 2.5 10 4 1 –
2008 election result[135] 8 November 2008 33.99 44.93 4.07 2.39 6.72 3.65 0.87 0.91

Preferred Prime Minister

Graphical summary

Summary of Preferred Prime Minister Polls up to 6 November 2008. Lines show the mean, as estimated by a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Helen
Clark 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Don
Brash 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|John
Key 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"|Winston
Peters
TV3–TNS[2] 27 October – 2 November 2005 43 19 – 8
TV3–TNS[2] 26 January – 2 February 2006 39 16 – 7
TV3–TNS[2] 23–29 March 2006 38 15 – 6
TV3–TNS[2] 4–10 May 2006 34 18 – 6
TV3–TNS[2] 29 June – 5 July 2006 38 13 0 6
TV3–TNS[2] 24–30 August 2006 38 17 0 5
Herald–DigiPoll[13] 31 August 2006[nb 1] 52.4 22.4 8.5 5
Herald–DigiPoll[16] 22–24 September 2006 50.8 25.9 9.2 4.8
TV3–TNS[22] 26 October–1 November 2006 35 15 – –
Herald–DigiPoll[25] 14 November–2 December 2006 54.2 3.9 28.5 –
TV3–TNS[28] 25 January–1 February 2007 35 1 24 5
One News–Colmar Brunton[29] 12–15 February 2007 32 – 27 3
One News–Colmar Brunton[33] 17–22 March 2007 32 – 29 4
TV3–TNS[34] 22–28 March 2007 37 1 28 4
One News–Colmar Brunton[37] 14–19 April 2007 37 1 29 3
TV3–TNS[39] 3–9 May 2007 30 1 32 5
Herald–DigiPoll[41] 18–24 May 2007 42.1 – 45.5 5.4
One News–Colmar Brunton[42] 19–24 May 2007 27 0.3 38 2
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Helen
Clark 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Don
Brash 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|John
Key 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"|Winston
Peters
One News–Colmar Brunton[47] 30 June–5 July 2007 29 0.5 35 2
TV3–TNS[2] 5–11 July 2007 31 1 31 4
Herald–DigiPoll[51] 5–19 July 2007 48.7 – 37.9 7
One News–Colmar Brunton[53] 4–9 August 2007 30 0.7 33 4
TV3–TNS[2] 30 August – 5 September 2007 28 1 32 6
Fairfax Media Poll[56] 15 September 2007[nb 1] 34 – 41 3
One News–Colmar Brunton[57] 8–13 September 2007 33 0.3 31 4
Herald–DigiPoll[60] 29 September 2007[nb 1] 46.8 – 42.2 –
One News–Colmar Brunton[62] 6–11 October 2007 33 0.2 33 3
Herald–DigiPoll[64] 8–28 October 2007 50.8 – 37.3 5
Fairfax Media Poll[68] 17 November 2007[nb 1] 38 – 36 –
Herald–DigiPoll[67] 8–26 November 2007 48.7 – 36.7 8.1
TV3–TNS[2] 5–12 December 2007 28 – 33 6
One News–Colmar Brunton[70] 8–13 December 2007 30 0.2 35 2
Herald–DigiPoll[73] 10–24 January 2008 49.7 – 39.2 3.8
TV3–TNS[2] 23–30 January 2008 29 – 33 6
One News–Colmar Brunton[75] 9–14 February 2008 27 0.4 36 4
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[77] 13–19 February 2008 29 – 44 –
TV3–TNS[2] 19–26 February 2008 28 – 35 5
Herald–DigiPoll[78] 11–28 February 2008 44.3 0.2 46.3 3.3
One News–Colmar Brunton[80] 8–13 March 2008 31 – 36 5
Herald–DigiPoll[82] 6–27 March 2008 45.6 – 45.9 3.9
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Helen
Clark 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Don
Brash 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|John
Key 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"|Winston
Peters
TV3–TNS[84] 10–16 April 2008 32 – 29 6
One News–Colmar Brunton[85] 12–17 April 2008 29 – 35 4
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[87] 9–22 April 2008 33 – 42 –
Herald–DigiPoll[88] 5–26 April 2008 45.3 – 48 –
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[90] 7–13 May 2008 28 – 45 5
Herald–DigiPoll[92] 5–28 May 2008 42.3 – 44.6 6.7
TV3–TNS[93] 23–29 May 2008 29 – 35 6
One News–Colmar Brunton[94] 24–29 May 2008 28 – 36 6
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[97] 11–17 June 2008 30 – 43 2
One News–Colmar Brunton[98] 14–19 June 2008 27 0.2 38 4
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[102] 9–15 July 2008 32 – 39 3
One News–Colmar Brunton[103] 12–17 July 2008 31 0.3 38 4
TV3–TNS[104] Released 18 July 2008 28 – 32 6
Herald–DigiPoll[105] Released 29 July 2008 44 – 47.1 4.9
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[108] 6–12 August 2008 31 – 43 2
One News–Colmar Brunton[109] 9–14 August 2008 33 – 36 3
TV3–TNS[110] 14–20 August 2008 31 – 34 3
Herald–DigiPoll[112] 3–25 August 2008 45 – 46.6 5.6
Poll Date scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Helen
Clark 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|Don
Brash 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|John
Key 		scope="col" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"|Winston
Peters
One News-Colmar Brunton[113] 6–11 September 2008 31 0.1 40 3
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[117] 10–16 September 2008 30 – 41 2
Herald–DigiPoll[118] 15–24 September 2008 43.1 – 45.5 4
TV3–TNS[119] Released 28 September 2008 32 – 34 –
One News-Colmar Brunton[120] 27 September–2 October 2008 31 – 41 3
TV3–TNS[122] Released 10 October 2008 31.6 – 31 –
One News-Colmar Brunton[123] 4–9 October 2008 31 – 39 2
Fairfax Media–Nielsen[124] 8–14 October 2008 35 – 43 –
One News-Colmar Brunton[125] 11–16 October 2008 34 0.1 40 2
TV3–TNS[126] Released 23 October 2008 36.3 – 36.3 –
Herald–DigiPoll[128] 15–22 October 2008 45.4 – 44.8 4.0
One News-Colmar Brunton[129] 18–23 October 2008 37 - 38 3
One News-Colmar Brunton[131] 1–5 November 2008 36 – 40 1

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Dates surveyed unavailable: date shown is date polled released to media.

References

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  51. ^ a b The New Zealand Herald, 23 July 2007 Source
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  55. ^ Roy Morgan Research, 13 September 2007 Source
  56. ^ a b Fairfax Media, 15 September 2007 Source
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  59. ^ UMR Research, 19 September 2007 "Source" (PDF). (112 KB)
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  67. ^ a b The New Zealand Herald, 28 November 2007 Source
  68. ^ a b Fairfax Media, 17 November 2007 Source
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  71. ^ Roy Morgan Research, 18 December 2007 Source
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