In the Abilene paradox, a group of people collectively decide on a course of action that is counter to the preferences of many or all of the individuals in the group. It involves a common breakdown of group communication in which each member mistakenly believes that their own preferences are counter to the group's and, therefore, does not raise objections, or even states support for an outcome they do not want. A common phrase relating to the Abilene paradox is a desire to not "rock the boat". This differs from groupthink in that the Abilene paradox is characterized by an inability to manage agreement.
The term was introduced by management expert Jerry B. Harvey in his 1974 article "The Abilene Paradox: The Management of Agreement". The name of the phenomenon comes from an anecdote that Harvey uses in the article to elucidate the paradox:
On a hot afternoon visiting in Coleman, Texas, the family is comfortably playing dominoes on a porch, until the father-in-law suggests that they take a [50-mile (80-km)] trip to Abilene for dinner. The wife says, "Sounds like a great idea." The husband, despite having reservations because the drive is long and hot, thinks that his preferences must be out-of-step with the group and says, "Sounds good to me. I just hope your mother wants to go." The mother-in-law then says, "Of course I want to go. I haven't been to Abilene in a long time."
The drive is hot, dusty, and long. When they arrive at the cafeteria, the food is as bad as the drive. They arrive back home four hours later, exhausted.
One of them dishonestly says, "It was a great trip, wasn't it?" The mother-in-law says that, actually, she would rather have stayed home, but went along since the other three were so enthusiastic. The husband says, "I wasn't delighted to be doing what we were doing. I only went to satisfy the rest of you." The wife says, "I just went along to keep you happy. I would have had to be crazy to want to go out in the heat like that." The father-in-law then says that he only suggested it because he thought the others might be bored.
The group sits back, perplexed that they together decided to take a trip which none of them wanted. They each would have preferred to sit comfortably, but did not admit to it when they still had time to enjoy the afternoon.
Ronald Sims writes that the Abilene paradox is similar to groupthink, but differs in significant ways, including that in groupthink individuals are not acting contrary to their conscious wishes and generally feel good about the decisions the group has reached. According to Sims, in the Abilene paradox, the individuals acting contrary to their own wishes are more likely to have negative feelings about the outcome. In Sims' view, groupthink is a psychological phenomenon affecting clarity of thought, where in the Abilene paradox, thought is unaffected.
Like groupthink theories, the Abilene paradox theory is used to illustrate that groups not only have problems managing disagreements, but that agreements may also be a problem in a poorly functioning group.
The phenomenon is explained by social psychology theories of social conformity and social influence, which suggest human beings are often very averse to acting contrary to the trend of a group. According to Harvey, the phenomenon may occur when individuals experience "action-anxiety"—stress concerning the group potentially expressing negative attitudes towards them if they do not go along. This action-anxiety arises from what Harvey termed "negative fantasies"—unpleasant visualizations of what the group might say or do if individuals are honest about their opinions—when there is "real risk" of displeasure and negative consequences for not going along. The individual may experience "separation anxiety", fearing exclusion from the group.
Applications of the theory
The theory is often used to help explain extremely poor group decisions, especially notions of the superiority of "rule by committee". For example, Harvey himself cited the Watergate scandal as a potential instance of the Abilene paradox in action. The Watergate scandal occurred in the United States in the 1970s when many high officials of the Nixon administration colluded in the cover-up and perhaps the execution of a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington, D.C. Harvey quotes several people indicted for the coverup as indicating that they had personal qualms about the decision but feared to voice them. For one instance, campaign aide Herbert Porter said that he "was not one to stand up in a meeting and say that this should be stopped", a decision that he attributed to "the fear of the group pressure that would ensue, of not being a team player".
- Argumentum ad populum
- Elephant in the room
- False consensus effect
- Group polarization
- Keynesian beauty contest
- Peer pressure
- Pluralistic ignorance
- Prediction market
- Preference falsification
- Prisoner's dilemma
- Special interests
- Spiral of silence
- Asch conformity experiments
- The Wisdom of Crowds
- McAvoy, John; Butler, Tom (2007). "The impact of the Abilene Paradox on double-loop learning in an agile team". Information and Software Technology. 49 (6): 552–563. doi:10.1016/j.infsof.2007.02.012.
- McAvoy, J.; Butler, T. (2006). "Resisting the change to user stories: a trip to Abilene". International Journal of Information Systems and Change Management. 1 (1): 48–61. doi:10.1504/IJISCM.2006.008286.
- Harvey, J. B. (1974). "The Abilene paradox: the management of agreement". Organizational Dynamics. 3: 63–80. doi:10.1016/0090-2616(74)90005-9.
- Ronald R. Sims (1 January 1994). Ethics and Organizational Decision Making: A Call for Renewal. Greenwood Publishing Group. pp. 55–56. ISBN 978-0-89930-860-9.
- Ronald R. Sims (1 January 1994). Ethics and Organizational Decision Making: A Call for Renewal. Greenwood Publishing Group. pp. 57. ISBN 978-0-89930-860-9.
- Levi, Daniel (28 April 2010). Group Dynamics for Teams. SAGE Publications. pp. 108–109. ISBN 978-1-4129-7762-3.
- Vasu, Michael L.; Debra W. Stewart; G. David Garson (3 March 1998). Organizational Behavior and Public Management, Third Edition, Revised and Expanded. Taylor & Francis. pp. 136–137. ISBN 978-0-8247-0135-2.
- Pownall, Ian. Effective Management Decision Making. Bookboon. p. 223. ISBN 978-87-403-0120-5.
- Harvey, Jerry (Summer 1988). "The Abilene Paradox: the Management of Agreement". Organizational Management. American Management Association. 17 (1): 19–20. doi:10.1016/0090-2616(88)90028-9.
- Harvey, Jerry B. (1988). The Abilene Paradox and Other Meditations on Management. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books. ISBN 0-669-19179-5
- Harvey, Jerry B. (1996). The Abilene Paradox and Other Meditations on Management (paperback). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. ISBN 0-7879-0277-2
- Harvey, Jerry B. (1999). How Come Every Time I Get Stabbed in the Back, My Fingerprints Are on the Knife?. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. ISBN 0-7879-4787-3