Andalusian regional election, 2012

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Andalusian regional election, 2012
Andalusia
← 2008 25 March 2012 2015 →

All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 6,392,620 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg2.6%
Turnout 3,885,137 (60.8%)
Red Arrow Down.svg11.9 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  Javier Arenas (cropped).jpg José Antonio Griñán 2012 (cropped)-2.jpg Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg
Leader Javier Arenas José Antonio Griñán Diego Valderas
Party PP PSOE–A IULV–CA
Leader since 18 April 2004 23 April 2009 10 October 2000
Leader's seat Almería Seville Huelva
Last election 47 seats, 38.5% 56 seats, 48.4% 6 seats, 7.1%
Seats won 50 47 12
Seat change Green Arrow Up Darker.svg3 Red Arrow Down.svg9 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg6
Popular vote 1,570,833 1,527,923 438,372
Percentage 40.7% 39.6% 11.3%
Swing Green Arrow Up Darker.svg2.2 pp Red Arrow Down.svg8.8 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg4.2 pp

AndalusiaProvinceMapParliament2012.png
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia

President before election

José Antonio Griñán
PSOE–A

Elected President

José Antonio Griñán
PSOE–A

The 2012 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Asturias.

Being a Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) stronghold for decades, the People's Party (PP) had scored a decisive win in the region in the November 2011 general election and was widely expected to come out on top for the first time in its history, with opinion polls suggesting it could win an absolute majority on its own. The election, however, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national Mariano Rajoy's government since coming to power in December 2011;[1] Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform had triggered a general strike scheduled for 29 March.[2][3] Incumbent President José Antonio Griñán chose not to held the election simultaneously with the 2011 general election—the first time since 1994 that both elections were not held at the same time.[4]

Final results showed a surprising close race between the PP and the PSOE–A, the first emerging out on top but falling far short of an overall majority. In contrast, the PSOE–A held its own and retained 47 seats despite polls predicting a tougher defeat, allowing Griñán to remain in power through a coalition government with United Left (IULV–CA), which doubled its seat count from 6 to 12 and was placed in a "kingmaker" position.[5]

Overview[edit]

The Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of Andalusia at the time of the 2012 election. Legislative initiative for those areas of responsibility attributed to the regional government belonged to this chamber, which also had the attribution of granting or revoking confidence from the President of Andalusia.

The President had the ability to dissolve the chamber at any given time and call a snap election. Additionally, the Parliament's dissolution was automatically triggered if investiture attempts failed to elect a regional President within a two month-period from the first ballot.[6]

Electoral system[edit]

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all residents over eighteen and in the full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Concurrently, residents meeting the previous criteria and not involved in any cause of ineligibility were eligible for the Parliament. Groups of electors were required to obtain the signatures of at least 1% of registered electors in a particular district in order to be able to field candidates.

All 109 Parliament seats were allocated to eight multi-member districts—each constituency corresponding to a province—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of eight seats, with the remaining 45 seats allocated among the eight provinces in proportion to their populations on the condition that the number of seats in each district did not exceed two times those of any other. A threshold of 3% of valid votes—which included blank ballots—was applied, with parties not reaching the threshold not entitled to enter the seat distribution.[7]

Background[edit]

Date

Several dates were considered for the election. Initially scheduled for 4[8] or 18 March, the result of the general election in November made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to push the legislature to the limit and distance himself from the November election.[9]

This has been the first time since 1996 that an Andalusian regional election has not been held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had chosen to hold the 2012 general election 4 months ahead of schedule, on 20 November 2011.

2011 general election

The 2011 general election resulted in a resounding victory for the opposition People's Party of Mariano Rajoy, which won in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy. The PP won 1,985,612 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to PSOE's 1,594,893 votes (36.60%) and 25 seats, after losing 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in 2008. United Left won 2 seats from Sevilla and Malaga and 8.27% of the share with 360,212 votes.

Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the People's Party an absolute majority with 58 seats (out of 109 up for election), with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. United Left would keep its 6 seats on the projections while UPyD could enter the Parliament with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30-year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community: the party being in power since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.[10]

Opinion polls[edit]

Party vote[edit]

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures.

Seat projections[edit]

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

Results[edit]

Overall[edit]

Most voted party by provinces.
Summary of the 25 March 2012 Parliament of Andalusia election results
AndalusiaParliamentDiagram2012.svg
Party Popular vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Won +/−
People's Party (PP) 1,570,833 40.67 +2.22 50 +3
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) 1,527,923 39.56 –8.85 47 –9
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) 438,372 11.35 +4.29 12 +6
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 129,407 3.35 +2.73 0 ±0
Andalusian Party (PA)1 96,770 2.51 –0.25 0 ±0
Blank ballots 35,081 0.91 –0.15
Total 3,862,747 100.00 109 ±0
Valid votes 3,862,747 99.42 +0.05
Invalid votes 22,390 0.58 –0.05
Votes cast / turnout 3,885,137 60.78 –11.89
Abstentions 2,507,483 39.22 +11.89
Registered voters 6,392,620
Source(s): Argos Information Portal, historiaelectoral.com
Popular vote
PP
  
40.67%
PSOE–A
  
39.56%
IULV–CA
  
11.35%
UPyD
  
3.35%
PA
  
2.51%
Others
  
1.67%
Blank ballots
  
0.91%
Seats
PP
  
45.87%
PSOE–A
  
43.12%
IULV–CA
  
11.01%

Distribution by constituency[edit]

Constituency PP PSOE–A IULV–CA
 % S  % S  % S
Almería 51.2 7 35.4 4 7.1 1
Cádiz 40.5 7 35.6 6 12.7 2
Córdoba 39.7 5 38.9 5 13.3 2
Granada 43.5 6 39.5 6 10.0 1
Huelva 38.6 5 43.4 5 10.9 1
Jaén 41.1 5 44.5 5 8.8 1
Málaga 43.7 8 35.3 7 12.2 2
Seville 35.3 7 43.1 9 12.2 2
Total 40.7 50 39.6 47 11.3 12

Aftermath[edit]

Investiture vote[edit]

On 3 May 2012, as a result of the PSOE–IU coalition agreement, José Antonio Griñán was re-elected as regional President. One IU deputy, Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, cast an invalid vote in protest for not being able to elect a candidate of his own party.

First round: 3 May 2012
Absolute majority (55/109) required
Candidate: José Antonio Griñán
Choice Vote
Parties Votes
YesYYes PSOE–A (47), IULV–CA (11)
58 / 109
No PP (50)
50 / 109
Abstentions
0 / 109
Invalid vote: IULV–CA (1)
Source: historiaelectoral.com

In July 2013, President Griñán announced he would resign after a successor for the office had been chosen from among his party. As regional minister Susana Díaz was the only person able to gather the required guarantees to stand in the primary election that was to held for such a purpose, she was unanimously proclaimed as the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Junta of Andalusia. As a result, on 5 September 2013 the Andalusian Parliament elected Díaz as Griñán's successor.

First round: 5 September 2013
Absolute majority (55/109) required
Candidate: Susana Díaz
Choice Vote
Parties Votes
YesYYes PSOE–A (47), IULV–CA (11)
58 / 109
No PP (48)
48 / 109
Abstentions
0 / 109
Non-registered vote: IULV–CA (1)
Absences: PP (2)
Source: historiaelectoral.com

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Test for Rajoy and Rubalcaba" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-03-23. 
  2. ^ "The reform eases and cheapens the dismissal" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-02-10. 
  3. ^ "29 March, general strike" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2012-03-09. 
  4. ^ "Griñán will not call snap election in Andalusia" (in Spanish). diariovasco.com. 2011-07-29. 
  5. ^ "The left wins in Andalusia" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-03-25. 
  6. ^ Statute of Autonomy for Andalusia of 2007, Organic Law No. 2 of March 19, 2007 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 2017-02-22.
  7. ^ Electoral Law of Andalusia of 1986, Law No. 1 of January 2, 1986 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 2017-02-22.
  8. ^ "Las elecciones andaluzas serán el 4 de marzo de 2012" (in Spanish). El País. Retrieved 2012-01-21. 
  9. ^ "Las elecciones en Andalucía serán el 25 de marzo" (in Spanish). Público. Retrieved 2012-01-21. 
  10. ^ "El PP se haría con la Junta de Andalucía con los resultados de las generales" (in Spanish). Libertad Digital.com. Retrieved 2012-01-21.