Andalusian regional election, 2012
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
The 2012 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Asturias.
Being a Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) stronghold for decades, the People's Party (PP) had scored a decisive win in the region in the November 2011 general election and was widely expected to come out on top for the first time in its history, with opinion polls suggesting it could win an absolute majority on its own. The election, however, came to be seen as the first major electoral test for the national Mariano Rajoy's government since coming to power in December 2011; Rajoy's policies of raising taxes and the passing of a new, harsher labour reform had triggered a general strike scheduled for 29 March. Incumbent President José Antonio Griñán chose not to held the election simultaneously with the 2011 general election—the first time since 1994 that both elections were not held at the same time.
Final results showed a surprising close race between the PP and the PSOE–A, the first emerging out on top but falling far short of an overall majority. In contrast, the PSOE–A held its own and retained 47 seats despite polls predicting a tougher defeat, allowing Griñán to remain in power through a coalition government with United Left (IULV–CA), which doubled its seat count from 6 to 12 and was placed in a "kingmaker" position.
The Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of Andalusia at the time of the 2012 election. Legislative initiative for those areas of responsibility attributed to the regional government belonged to this chamber, which also had the attribution of granting or revoking confidence from the President of Andalusia.
The President had the ability to dissolve the chamber at any given time and call a snap election. Additionally, the Parliament's dissolution was automatically triggered if investiture attempts failed to elect a regional President within a two month-period from the first ballot.
Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all residents over eighteen and in the full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Concurrently, residents meeting the previous criteria and not involved in any cause of ineligibility were eligible for the Parliament. Groups of electors were required to obtain the signatures of at least 1% of registered electors in a particular district in order to be able to field candidates.
All 109 Parliament seats were allocated to eight multi-member districts—each constituency corresponding to a province—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of eight seats, with the remaining 45 seats allocated among the eight provinces in proportion to their populations on the condition that the number of seats in each district did not exceed two times those of any other. A threshold of 3% of valid votes—which included blank ballots—was applied, with parties not reaching the threshold not entitled to enter the seat distribution.
Several dates were considered for the election. Initially scheduled for 4 or 18 March, the result of the general election in November made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to push the legislature to the limit and distance himself from the November election.
This has been the first time since 1996 that an Andalusian regional election has not been held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had chosen to hold the 2012 general election 4 months ahead of schedule, on 20 November 2011.
- 2011 general election
The 2011 general election resulted in a resounding victory for the opposition People's Party of Mariano Rajoy, which won in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy. The PP won 1,985,612 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to PSOE's 1,594,893 votes (36.60%) and 25 seats, after losing 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in 2008. United Left won 2 seats from Sevilla and Malaga and 8.27% of the share with 360,212 votes.
Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the People's Party an absolute majority with 58 seats (out of 109 up for election), with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. United Left would keep its 6 seats on the projections while UPyD could enter the Parliament with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30-year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community: the party being in power since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.
Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures.
|25 Mar 2012||Regional Election||39.6||40.7||11.3||2.5||3.4||2.6||1.1|
|12–13 Mar||Opinión 2000||36.0||46.7||8.8||2.8||4.1||1.6||10.7|
|20 Feb–6 Mar||NC-Report[a]||35.3||45.2||9.8||4.3||5.4||9.9|
|20 Nov 2011||General Election||36.6||45.6||8.3||1.8||4.8||2.9||9.0|
|26 Sep–21 Oct||IESA||36.0||46.4||8.1||2.8||3.2||3.5||10.4|
|6 Jun–11 Jul||CADPEA||34.3||48.9||8.3||2.4||1.4||4.7||14.6|
|18 Jan–2 Feb||Nexo||39.7||46.2||7.6||3.2||3.3||6.5|
|24 Nov–22 Dec||CADPEA||36.2||45.4||8.2||2.3||1.4||6.5||9.2|
|18 Oct–18 Nov||IESA||37.7||46.8||8.2||2.9||1.7||2.7||9.1|
|6 Jun–6 Jul||CADPEA||38.0||45.1||8.1||2.1||1.5||5.2||7.1|
|25 Jan–12 Feb||IMC[a]||40.4||42.4||7.1||2.1||8.0||2.0|
|23 Sep–2 Oct||Commentia||42.7||42.2||7.1||2.4||2.6||3.0||0.5|
|9 Jun–9 Jul||CADPEA||46.2||39.7||6.7||2.6||4.8||6.5|
|25 May–19 Jun||PULSO||48.6||40.2||6.2||1.8||3.2||8.4|
|7 Jun 2009||EP Election||48.2||39.7||5.2||1.0||2.5||3.4||8.5|
|14 Nov–12 Dec||CADPEA||46.2||38.8||7.5||2.2||5.3||7.4|
|10 Nov–5 Dec||IESA||47.0||40.8||6.2||2.5||3.5||6.2|
|9 Mar 2008||Regional Election||48.4||38.5||7.1||2.8||0.6||2.6||9.9|
Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.
|25 Mar 2012||Regional Election||47||50||12||0||0||0|
|20 Feb–6 Mar||NC-Report||41−44||55−57||8−9||0−1||0−2||0|
|20 Nov 2011||General Election||(43)||(58)||(6)||(0)||(2)||(0)|
|25 Jan–12 Feb||IMC||51||52||6||0||0||0|
|7 Jun 2009||EP Election||(58)||(48)||(3)||(0)||(0)||(0)|
|9 Mar 2008||Regional Election||56||47||6||0||0||0|
- This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.
|People's Party (PP)||1,570,833||40.67||+2.22||50||+3|
|Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)||1,527,923||39.56||–8.85||47||–9|
|United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)||438,372||11.35||+4.29||12||+6|
|Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)||129,407||3.35||+2.73||0||±0|
|Andalusian Party (PA)1||96,770||2.51||–0.25||0||±0|
|Parties with less than 1.0% of the vote||64,361||1.67||—||0||±0|
|Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)||8,781||0.23||New||0||±0|
|Blank Seats (EB)||5,660||0.15||New||0||±0|
|Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)||4,119||0.11||+0.05||0||±0|
|We Won't Pay this Crisis (ECNP)||2,680||0.07||New||0||±0|
|Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE–JONS)||2,407||0.06||+0.02||0||±0|
|For a Fairer World (PUM+J)||1,704||0.04||New||0||±0|
|Andalusian Platform–Citizen Forum (FC)||1,634||0.04||New||0||±0|
|Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL)||1,406||0.04||New||0||±0|
|Regionalist Party for Eastern Andalusia (PRAO)||1,071||0.03||New||0||±0|
|Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)||1,040||0.03||–0.03||0||±0|
|Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)||1,026||0.03||New||0||±0|
|Humanist Party (PH)||896||0.02||–0.07||0||±0|
|Andalusian Horticulture Party (PHAN)||832||0.02||New||0||±0|
|Socialists and Republicans (SyR)||787||0.02||New||0||±0|
|Andalusian Convergence (CAnda)||762||0.02||–0.15||0||±0|
|Spanish Alternative (AES)||653||0.02||New||0||±0|
|Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD)||643||0.02||New||0||±0|
|Republican Social Movement (MSR)||628||0.02||New||0||±0|
|Democratic Majority (MD)||515||0.01||New||0||±0|
|Family and Life Party (PFyV)||408||0.01||–0.01||0||±0|
|Engine and Sports Alternative (AMD)||362||0.01||New||0||±0|
|Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)||345||0.01||–0.02||0||±0|
|Group and Union for the Progress of Almeria (AUPAL)||216||0.01||New||0||±0|
|Andalusian Nationalist People (PNdeA)||156||0.00||New||0||±0|
|Regionalist Call for Andalusia (CReA)||146||0.00||New||0||±0|
|Andalusian Solidary Independent Republican Party (RISA)||135||0.00||New||0||±0|
|Votes cast / turnout||3,885,137||60.78||–11.89|
|Source(s): Argos Information Portal, historiaelectoral.com|
Distribution by constituency
On 3 May 2012, as a result of the PSOE–IU coalition agreement, José Antonio Griñán was re-elected as regional President. One IU deputy, Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, cast an invalid vote in protest for not being able to elect a candidate of his own party.
|Candidate: José Antonio Griñán|
|Yes||PSOE–A (47), IULV–CA (11)||
58 / 109
50 / 109
0 / 109
|Invalid vote: IULV–CA (1)|
In July 2013, President Griñán announced he would resign after a successor for the office had been chosen from among his party. As regional minister Susana Díaz was the only person able to gather the required guarantees to stand in the primary election that was to held for such a purpose, she was unanimously proclaimed as the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Junta of Andalusia. As a result, on 5 September 2013 the Andalusian Parliament elected Díaz as Griñán's successor.
|Candidate: Susana Díaz|
|Yes||PSOE–A (47), IULV–CA (11)||
58 / 109
48 / 109
0 / 109
|Non-registered vote: IULV–CA (1)
Absences: PP (2)
- "Test for Rajoy and Rubalcaba" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-03-23.
- "The reform eases and cheapens the dismissal" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-02-10.
- "29 March, general strike" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2012-03-09.
- "Griñán will not call snap election in Andalusia" (in Spanish). diariovasco.com. 2011-07-29.
- "The left wins in Andalusia" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-03-25.
- Statute of Autonomy for Andalusia of 2007, Organic Law No. 2 of March 19, 2007 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 2017-02-22.
- Electoral Law of Andalusia of 1986, Law No. 1 of January 2, 1986 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 2017-02-22.
- "Las elecciones andaluzas serán el 4 de marzo de 2012" (in Spanish). El País. Retrieved 2012-01-21.
- "Las elecciones en Andalucía serán el 25 de marzo" (in Spanish). Público. Retrieved 2012-01-21.
- "El PP se haría con la Junta de Andalucía con los resultados de las generales" (in Spanish). Libertad Digital.com. Retrieved 2012-01-21.