Appeal to probability

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An appeal to probability (or appeal to possibility, also known as possibiliter ergo probabiliter, "possibly, therefore probably") is the logical fallacy of taking something for granted because it is possibly the case.[1][2] The fact that an event is possible does not imply that the event is probable, nor that the event was realized.


A fallacious appeal to possibility:

If it can happen (premise).
It will happen. (invalid conclusion)
Something can go wrong (premise).
Therefore, something will go wrong (invalid conclusion).
If I do not bring my umbrella (premise)
It will rain. (invalid conclusion).

Murphy's law is a (typically deliberate, tongue-in-cheek) invocation of the fallacy.[citation needed]

See also[edit]




  • Bennett, Bo, "Appeal to possibility", Logically Fallacious, retrieved 13 March 2021
  • Carrier, Richard (2012), Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus, Prometheus Books, p. 26-29, ISBN 9781616145590