Australian federal election, 1996

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Australian federal election, 1996

← 1993 2 March 1996 (1996-03-02) 1998 →

All 148 seats in the House of Representatives
75 seats were needed for a majority in the House
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
  First party Second party
  John howard.jpg Paul Keating 1985.jpg
Leader John Howard Paul Keating
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 30 January 1995 (1995-01-30) 19 December 1991 (1991-12-19)
Leader's seat Bennelong (NSW) Blaxland (NSW)
Last election 65 seats 80 seats
Seats won 94 seats 49 seats
Seat change Increase29 Decrease31
Popular vote 5,810,546 5,024,327
Percentage 53.63% 46.37%
Swing Increase5.07 Decrease5.07

Prime Minister before election

Paul Keating
Labor

Subsequent Prime Minister

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition

The 1996 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the 38th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 2 March 1996. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76-seat Senate were up for election. The centre-right Liberal/National Coalition led by Opposition Leader John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party government led by Prime Minister Paul Keating.

The election marked the end of the 13 year Hawke-Keating Government that began in 1983. John Howard was sworn in as the new Prime Minister of Australia on 11 March 1996, along with the First Howard Ministry.

This was the first federal election that future Prime Minister Tony Abbott contested as a member of parliament, having entered parliament at the 1994 Warringah by-election. Future opposition leader Brendan Nelson entered parliament at this election.

Background[edit]

John Howard, who had previously led the Liberal Party from 1985 to 1989, had returned to the leadership in January 1995 following a disastrous 8 months under the leadership of Alexander Downer. Downer and Peter Costello had succeeded Dr. John Hewson and Michael Wooldridge early in 1994 and were touted as the leaders of the new-generation Liberals. In the end, the party opted for the seasoned Howard, perhaps an acknowledgment that he was the only one left standing after a decade of party infighting.

Howard approached the campaign with a determination to present as small a target as possible. Throughout 1995, he refused to detail specific policy proposals, focusing the Coalition's attacks mainly on the longevity and governing record of the Labor government. By 1996, however, it was clear that the electorate had tired of Labor and Paul Keating in particular. "The recession we had to have" line resonated with deadly force throughout the electorate. Although Keating's big picture approach to republicanism, reconciliation and engagement with Asia galvanised support within Labor's urban constituencies, Howard was able to attract support amongst disaffected mainstream Australians – including traditionally Labor-voting blue-collar workers and middle-class suburban residents. He also promised to retain Medicare and hold a constitutional convention to decide whether Australia would become a republic.

The election-eve Newspoll reported the Liberal/National Coalition held an estimated 53.5 percent two-party-preferred vote.[1]

Result[edit]

House of Representatives results[edit]

Government (94)
Coalition
     Liberal (75)
     National (18)
     CLP (1)

Opposition (49)
     Labor (49)

Crossbench (5)
     Independent (5)
House of Reps (IRV) – 1998–2001 – Turnout 94.99% (CV) — Informal 3.78%
Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
  Liberal–National coalition 5,142,161 47.25 +2.98 94 +29
  Liberal  4,210,689 38.69 +1.92 75 +26
  National  893,170 8.21 +1.04 18 +2
  Country Liberal  38,302 0.35 +0.02 1 +1
  Labor 4,217,765 38.75 −6.17 49 −31
  Democrats 735,848 6.76 +3.01 0 0
  Greens* 317,654 2.92 +1.09 0 0
  Against Further Immigration 73,023 0.67 +0.64 0 0
  Call to Australia 43,183 0.40 −0.08 0 0
  Natural Law 41,573 0.38 −0.36 0 0
  No Aircraft Noise 18,626 0.17 +0.17 0 0
  Indigenous Peoples 12,507 0.11 +0.08 0 0
  Reclaim Australia 6,457 0.06 +0.06 0 0
  Women's 6,173 0.06 +0.06 0 0
  One Australia 3,159 0.03 +0.03 0 0
  Grey Power 2,815 0.03 +0.01 0 0
  Pensioner & CIR Alliance 332 0.00 +0.00 0 0
  Republican 156 0.00 +0.00 0 0
  Independents 262,420 2.41 −0.73 5 +3
  Total 10,883,852     148 +1
Two-party-preferred vote
  Liberal–National coalition WIN 53.63 +5.07 94 +29
  Labor   46.37 −5.07 49 −31
Popular Vote
Labor
38.75%
Liberal
38.69%
National
8.21%
Democrats
6.76%
Greens
1.74%
CLP
0.35%
Independents
2.27%
Other
3.23%
Two Party Preferred Vote
Coalition
53.63%
Labor
46.37%
Parliament Seats
Coalition
63.51%
Labor
33.11%
Independents
3.38%

Senate results[edit]

Government (37)
Coalition
     Liberal (31)
     National (5)
     CLP (1)

Opposition (29)
     Labor (29)

Crossbench (10)
     Democrats (7)
     Greens (2)
     Independent (1)
Senate (STV GV) — 2002–05 – Turnout 95.20% (CV) — Informal 3.89%
Party Votes % Swing Seats Won Seats Held
  Australian Labor Party 3,940,150 36.15 −7.35 14 29
  Liberal/National (Joint Ticket) 2,669,377 24.49 +0.09 6  
  Liberal Party of Australia 1,770,486 16.24 +0.65 12 31
  Australian Democrats 1,179,357 10.82 +5.51 5 7
  National Party of Australia 312,769 2.87 +0.15 1 5
  Australian Greens (NSW, Qld, SA, ACT, NT) 180,404 1.66 −0.28 0 0
  Australians Against Further Immigration 137,604 1.26 +0.82 0 0
  Call to Australia 117,274 1.08 +0.25 0 0
  Australian Shooters Party 114,724 1.05 +0.45 0 0
  Australian Greens Victoria 81,273 0.74 +0.44 0 0
  WA Greens 57,006 0.52 +0.02 0 1
  Australian Women's Party 49,131 0.45 * 0 0
  Reclaim Australia: Reduce Immigration 44,545 0.41 * 0 0
  Country Liberal Party 40,050 0.37 +0.04 1 1
  Democratic Labor Party 36,156 0.33 −0.03 0 0
  Tasmanian Greens 26,830 0.25 * 1 1
  A Better Future for Our Children 18,960 0.17 * 0 0
  Natural Law Party 17,082 0.16 −0.20 0 0
  No Aircraft Noise 17,043 0.16 −0.20 0 0
  Grey Power 13,401 0.12 −0.04 0 0
  Pensioner & CIR Alliance 9,040 0.08 −0.13 0 0
  The Seniors 8,268 0.08 * 0 0
  Republican Party of Australia 7,778 0.07 −0.06 0 0
  One Australia Party 3,638 0.03 * 0 0
  Australia's Indigenous Peoples Party 2,772 0.03 −0.03 0 0
  Independent EFF 2,430 0.02 * 0 0
  Harradine Group * * −0.30 0 1
  Other 41,489 0.38 −0.23 0 0
  Total 10,899,037     40 76

Independents: Mal Colston (resigned from ALP in August 1996)

Analysis[edit]

Overall the coalition won 29 seats from Labor while the ALP won 4 seats from the Liberals. These 4 seats were Canberra and Namadgi in the ACT and Isaacs in Victoria and the Division of Bruce in Victoria. The ACT seats fell to Labor due to a strong return to the ALP in a traditional Labor town by public servants fearing conservative cuts. The division of Brendan Smyth's seat of Canberra into the two new (of the three) ACT seats limited his campaign to the southernmost Tuggeranong seat of Namadgi where the ACT Labor right wing stood former MLA Annette Ellis who ran a tight grassroots campaign. Isaacs fell to Labor due to demographic changes due to a redistribution of electoral boundaries.

The Gallagher Index result: 11.14

Labor lost five percent of its two-party vote from 1993, and tallied its lowest primary vote since 1934 (an additional eight percent coming from preferences). The swing against Labor was not in and of itself enough to cause a change of government. However, Labor lost 13 of its 33 seats in New South Wales, and all but two of its 13 seats in Queensland. The 29-seat swing was the second-largest defeat, in terms of seats lost, by a sitting government in Australia. Three members of Keating's government—including Attorney-General Michael Lavarch —lost their seats. Keating resigned as Labor leader on the night of the election, and was succeeded by former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kim Beazley.

Due in part to this large swing, Howard entered office with a 45-seat majority, the second-largest in Australian history (behind only the 55-seat majority won by Malcolm Fraser in 1975). The Liberals actually won a majority in their own right at this election with 75 seats, the most the party had ever won. Although Howard had no need for the support of the Nationals, the Coalition was retained.

Exit polling showed the Coalition winning 47 percent of the blue-collar vote, compared with Labor's 39 percent; there was a 16-point drop in Labor's vote among members of trade unions. The Coalition won 48 percent of the Catholic vote and Labor 37 percent, a reversal of the usual figures.[2]

House of Reps preference flows[edit]

  • The Democrats contested 138 electorates with preferences slightly favouring Labor (54.02%)
  • The Greens contested 102 electorates with preferences favouring Labor (67.10%)

Seats changing hands[edit]

Seat Pre-1996 Swing Post-1996
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bass, Tas   Labor Silvia Smith 0.03 4.60 4.57 Warwick Smith Liberal  
Bowman, Qld   Labor Hon Con Sciacca 8.14 9.03 0.89 Andrea West Liberal  
Calare, NSW   Labor David Simmons N/A N/A 13.32 Peter Andren Independent  
Canberra, ACT   Liberal Brendan Smyth 6.58 14.1 7.52 Bob McMullan Labor  
Canning, WA   Labor Hon George Gear 0.19 0.88 0.69 Ricky Johnston Liberal  
Capricornia, Qld   Labor Marjorie Henzell 2.78 6.40 3.62 Paul Marek National  
Curtin, WA   Liberal Allan Rocher N/A N/A 7.28 Allan Rocher Independent  
Dickson, Qld   Labor Hon Michael Lavarch 2.55 5.72 3.17 Tony Smith Liberal  
Eden-Monaro, NSW   Labor Jim Snow 4.27 9.03 4.76 Gary Nairn Liberal  
Gilmore, NSW   Labor Peter Knott 0.45 6.69 6.24 Joanna Gash Liberal  
Griffith, Qld   Labor Ben Humphreys 5.90 7.37 1.47 Graeme McDougall Liberal  
Herbert, Qld   Labor Hon Ted Lindsay 3.31 9.90 6.59 Peter Lindsay Liberal  
Hughes, NSW   Labor Hon Robert Tickner 6.42 11.31 4.89 Danna Vale Liberal  
Kalgoorlie, WA   Labor Graeme Campbell N/A N/A 10.35 Graeme Campbell Independent  
Kingston, SA   Labor Gordon Bilney 1.45 3.46 2.01 Susan Jeanes Liberal  
Leichhardt, Qld   Labor Peter Dodd 1.33 5.51 4.18 Warren Entsch Liberal  
Lilley, Qld   Labor Wayne Swan 6.18 6.91 0.73 Elizabeth Grace Liberal  
Lindsay, NSW   Labor Ross Free 10.22 11.80 1.58 Jackie Kelly [3] Liberal  
Lowe, NSW   Labor Mary Easson 5.01 7.48 2.47 Paul Zammit Liberal  
Macarthur, NSW   Labor Chris Haviland 1.28 11.97 10.69 John Fahey Liberal  
Macquarie, NSW   Labor Maggie Deahm 0.12 6.48 6.36 Kerry Bartlett Liberal  
Makin, SA   Labor Peter Duncan 3.71 4.79 1.08 Trish Draper Liberal  
McEwen, Vic   Labor Peter Cleeland 0.69 1.50 2.19 Fran Bailey Liberal  
McMillan, Vic   Labor Barry Cunningham 0.53 2.60 2.07 Russell Broadbent Liberal  
Moore, WA   Liberal Paul Filing N/A N/A 15.48 Paul Filing Independent  
Moreton, Qld   Labor Garrie Gibson 0.21 5.30 5.09 Gary Hardgrave Liberal  
Murray, Vic   National Bruce Lloyd N/A N/A 3.70* Sharman Stone Liberal  
North Sydney, NSW   Independent Ted Mack 1.8 17.4 15.6 Joe Hockey Liberal  
Northern Territory, NT   Labor Warren Snowdon 5.31 5.68 0.37 Nick Dondas Country Liberal  
Oxley, Qld   Labor Les Scott 14.65 19.31** 4.66 Pauline Hanson Independent  
Page, NSW   Labor Harry Woods 0.13 4.44 4.31 Ian Causley National  
Parramatta, NSW   Labor Paul Elliott 3.24 7.11 3.87 Ross Cameron Liberal  
Paterson, NSW   Labor Bob Horne 3.30 3.73 0.43 Bob Baldwin Liberal  
Petrie, Qld   Labor Gary Johns 2.15 9.85 7.70 Teresa Gambaro Liberal  
Richmond, NSW   Labor Neville Newell 1.78 8.53 6.75 Larry Anthony National  
Robertson, NSW   Labor Frank Walker 5.56 9.12 3.56 Jim Lloyd Liberal  
Swan, WA   Labor Kim Beazley 0.22 3.93 3.71 Don Randall Liberal  
Wills, Vic   Independent Phil Cleary n/a 4.37 n/a Kelvin Thomson Labor  
  • *Figure is Liberal against Nationals.
  • **Figure is a swing compared to Liberal vote at the last election.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Newspoll archive since 1987". Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au. Retrieved 2016-07-30.
  2. ^ John Stone (15 March 1996). "Remember, it was Paul Keating". The Australian Financial Review.
  3. ^ Kelly conceded that she was incapable of being chosen as a member of the House of Representatives while serving as an officer of the RAAF and won the subsequent by-election with an increased margin: Holland, I (2004). "Section 44 of the Constitution". Parliamentary Library of Australia.

External links[edit]