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Australian property market

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The weighted capital city residential property price index, produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, since 2003

The Australian property market comprises the trade of land and its permanent fixtures located within Australia. The average Australian property price grew 0.5% per year from 1890 to 1990 after inflation,[1] however rose from 1990 to 2017 at a faster rate. House prices in Australia receive considerable attention from the media and the Reserve Bank[2] and some commentators have argued that there is an Australian property bubble.[citation needed]

The median house price in Sydney peaked at $780,000 in 2016.[citation needed] With stricter credit policy and reduced interest from foreign investors in residential property, prices have started falling in all the major cities.[3] When compared with prices of 2017, the housing prices fell by 11.1% in Sydney and 7.2% in Melbourne in 2018.[4] In 2022 the residential rental market has seen a significant increase in rents, which has been described as a 'rental crisis'.

History

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The Australian property market has been studied over the long run mainly through historical house prices for Sydney and Melbourne, which reach back to 1880 and have been joined onto modern data to form a continuous record running to the present.[5] In the seventy years from 1880 to the mid-1950s, real house prices changed little, with several periods of significant decline, before beginning a sustained upward trend. From the early 1970s real prices rose by an average of about 3 per cent a year, and the cycle that began in the mid-1990s produced rises of around 6 per cent a year. Across this period, the market moved through cycles tied to each of the major economic cycles, the two most pronounced being the boom of the 1880s with the 1890s depression that followed, and the boom that ran from the mid-1990s into the 2000s.[5]

From the end of the Second World War to the mid-1970s, the market operated within a heavily regulated environment of low, controlled interest rates, with home finance channelled largely through building societies, alongside relatively cheap and abundant land. From the 1970s, and more sharply through the financial deregulation of the 1980s, this changed: the banking and mortgage system was opened to greater competition and to international capital, lending conditions were relaxed, and housing increasingly came to be treated as an investment asset as well as shelter, a shift often described as the financialisation of housing.[6]

From 2000, prices entered a period of exceptional growth, with real median house prices in the capital cities roughly doubling between 2000 and 2010. Australia largely avoided the house-price falls seen elsewhere during the 2007 to 2008 global financial crisis. Growth was more uneven over the following decade: real prices fell and then flattened in the early 2010s, recovered to about 2017, and dipped again to 2020 amid tighter lending standards. Real prices then rose sharply from late 2020 through 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, before falling by about 11 per cent in 2023 as mortgage rates climbed steeply, and resuming mild growth from mid-2023. From the mid-2010s the market also became less uniform across the country, with Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth recording stronger growth while Melbourne lagged.[7]

Market structure

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The structure of the Australian property market can be described by the make-up of the housing stock and by how that stock is held. Dwellings range from detached houses to higher-density townhouses and apartments, while occupants hold their housing either as owners, who may live in the dwelling or let it to tenants, or as renters.

Dwelling types

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By 2025 Australia had around 11.4 million residential dwellings. Detached houses remained the most common dwelling type, comprising about 71 per cent of the stock in 2024, with semi-detached dwellings and townhouses making up around 13 per cent and apartments about 16 per cent.[7] The apartment share has grown over time, from roughly 14 per cent of dwellings in 2010 to 16 per cent in 2021, continuing a longer-term trend in building approvals towards higher-density housing such as townhouses and units.[8] Between 2015 and early 2025 the dwelling stock grew by about 17 per cent, marginally faster than the population, while average household size edged down from about 2.6 to 2.54 persons.[7] Turnover in the market typically averages around 6 per cent of dwellings a year.[9]

Ownership

[edit]

Owner-occupation has been a defining feature of Australian housing since the mid-twentieth century. The home-ownership rate rose strongly in the postwar decades and has since remained high by international standards, holding broadly around two-thirds of households.[6][7] That stable headline figure, however, masks a marked decline in ownership among younger households, for whom rising prices have made home purchase harder to attain.[7] Owners of residential property fall into two groups: owner-occupiers, who live in the dwelling, and investors, who let properties it to tenants.

Owner-occupiers have consistently formed the larger group, accounting for more than 60 per cent of total housing demand across the states and territories, though the investor share varies by region, ranging from around 22 per cent in Tasmania to about 38 per cent in New South Wales.[10] Whether negative or positive gearing is more advantageous depends on prevailing tax settings and interest rates; negative gearing is most effective when interest rates are low and property values are rising, so that the expected capital gain outweighs the holding loss.[11][12] Studies have found that investor activity rises as expected capital growth increases, with investors willing to accept lower rental yields, and that rising prices tend to draw in buyers seeking capital gains rather than rental return.[10][7] Owner-occupier first-home buyers have increasingly depended on family financial support, sometimes called the "bank of mum and dad", to meet deposit requirements.[7]

Residential rental market

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Main article: Australian residential rental market

Renting accounts for a substantial share of Australian housing, with roughly a quarter to a third of households renting their home. The proportion renting privately rose from about 20 per cent in 1999–2000 to 26 per cent in 2019–20, while the share renting from state and territory social housing authorities fell from around 6 per cent to about 3 per cent over the same period.[13]

From 2022, advertised rents rose sharply, increasing by about 12 per cent over the year, the strongest rise in 14 years, while the national vacancy rate fell to around 1 per cent, a situation widely described as a rental crisis.[14] Contributing factors cited at the time included some landlords selling to owner-occupiers, the use of dwellings for short-term letting such as Airbnb, a limited supply of social housing, and pandemic-related shifts such as smaller household sizes and movement to regional areas.[15]

The severity of the crisis is contested. Analysis of official data distinguishes advertised rents, which cover only the small flow of newly listed properties and rose steeply, from the rents actually paid across the whole stock, which rose more modestly because most tenants remained on existing agreements; advertised rents have been around a third higher than rents paid market-wide.[16] Measured against incomes, rents have broadly kept pace over the longer term, though affordability pressures fall most heavily on lower-income households, for whom rent can absorb 40 per cent or more of income, and are concentrated in outer suburban, coastal and remote areas rather than inner cities.[16][7]

Regional variations

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The Australian property market is non-uniform, with high variation observed across the major cities and regional areas.[17]

Sydney

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Sydney established house price index, produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, since 2002

In Sydney, as of March 2010, the Property Market's vacancy rate reached 0.53% signalling that the market is recovering, as these rates had reached 2% in August 2009. As of July 2015, the Property Market in Sydney has surged in the first Q of 2015, up 3.1%.[18] Sydney's eastern and northern suburbs typically attract the highest prices.[19] The annual capital growth for houses and units in Sydney is 4.2% and 3.8% respectively.[20]

Melbourne

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Melbourne was historically Australia's second most expensive capital city by median dwelling value, but was overtaken by Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth during the mid-2020s.[21] Melbourne's home values grew more slowly than those of other major capitals following the COVID-19 pandemic, with prices recording a small decline in 2024 before stabilising. By early 2026, Melbourne's median dwelling value was around $854,000 according to PropTrack, with values still below their March 2022 peak.[22]

Brisbane

[edit]

Brisbane experienced strong price growth through the early 2020s, with its median house price first surpassing $1 million in 2025.[23] Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) recorded dwelling value growth of approximately 84 per cent between 2020 and 2026, making Brisbane the country's second most expensive capital after Sydney on a median dwelling basis.[24]

Perth

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Perth's property market underperformed the national average for much of the 2010s following the end of the mining boom, but recorded the strongest annual growth of any capital city between 2023 and 2025, with dwelling values rising more than 24 per cent in some twelve month periods.[25] Strong demand has been attributed to interstate migration, resources sector activity, and the city's relative affordability compared with the east coast capitals.[26]

Adelaide

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Adelaide's property market recorded sustained price growth from 2020 onward, with dwelling values rising approximately 77 per cent over five years.[27] The city's median house price exceeded Melbourne's during 2024, having previously been one of the most affordable capital cities. CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen attributed the strength of the Adelaide market to low listing volumes and buyer demand from higher-income households.[28]

Hobart

[edit]

After being one of Australia's strongest performing capital city markets in the late 2010s, Hobart's growth slowed considerably during the Reserve Bank's interest rate rises of 2022 to 2024, with values remaining largely flat over the period.[29] Hobart contained several of the country's most affordable capital city suburbs by 2025, with median house values under $450,000 in localities including Gagebrook, Herdsmans Cove and Bridgewater.[30]

Key issues

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Affordability

[edit]
Melbourne House prices to income ratio, 1965 to 2013

In the late 2000s, housing prices in Australia, relative to average incomes, were among the highest in the world. As at 2011, house prices were on average six times average household income, compared to four times in 1990.[31] This prompted speculation that the country was experiencing a real estate bubble, like many other countries.[32]

A 2025 industry analysis estimated that Australia needs to build an average of 225,400 new dwellings annually to 2034 in order to meet both new and historic housing demand.[33]

Immigration to Australia

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2000s

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In 2006, the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Macquarie Bank analyst Rory Robertson's analysis of Australian housing affordability. Robertson had criticized claims by then-Prime Minister John Howard that state government land release policies were the main driver of high house prices. He argued that a number of factors including high immigration, lower interest rates since the early 1990s, and investor activity, had a greater impact on housing costs. Robertson repeated this claim again in 2007 in an article from The Australian where he believed that high immigration and the propensity of new arrivals to cluster in the capital cities is exacerbating the nation's housing affordability problem.[34][35]

The Productivity Commission Inquiry Report No. 28 First Home Ownership (2004) also stated, in relation to housing, "that Growth in immigration since the mid-1990s has been an important contributor to underlying demand, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne."[36] This has been exacerbated by Australian lenders relaxing credit guidelines for temporary residents, allowing them to buy a home with a 10 percent deposit. The RBA in its submission to the same PC Report also stated "rapid growth in overseas visitors such as students may have boosted demand for rental housing".[36] However, in question in the report was the statistical coverage of resident population. The "ABS population growth figures omit certain household formation groups – namely, overseas students and business migrants who do not continuously stay for 12 months in Australia."[36] This statistical omission lead to the admission: "The Commission recognises that the ABS resident population estimates have limitations when used for assessing housing demand. Given the significant influx of foreigners coming to work or study in Australia in recent years, it seems highly likely that short-stay visitor movements may have added to the demand for housing. However, the Commissions are unaware of any research that quantifies the effects."[36]

In a 2008 Senate report, some individuals and interest groups have also argued that immigration causes overburdened infrastructure.[37][38]

2020s

[edit]

More recently in 2025, multiple studies have disputed the notion that immigration and foreign property purchases are the primary drivers of Australia's housing crisis. Instead, multiple experts point to factors such as limited housing supply, tax incentives for investors, and broader demand-side pressures as the primary contributors.[39]

A comprehensive study by the University of South Australia, published in March 2025, analyzed rental data from 2017 to 2024 and found no statistically significant correlation between international student numbers and rising rents. Lead researcher Professor Michael Mu emphasized that international students were unfairly blamed for the rental crisis, stating they were "thrown under the bus" and made an "easy target" for politicians.[40]

Supporting this view, a July 2025 paper by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) concluded that the rapid growth in international student numbers post-pandemic did not substantially contribute to higher rents or inflation. The RBA acknowledged that while the increase in student numbers likely had some impact, it was not a major driver of the housing affordability issues.[41]

Further research published by The Australia Institute in April 2025 supports this view. Analysis of population trends shows that even during periods of low migration, house prices increased substantially, and Australia’s population is still below the level it would have reached had pre-COVID growth continued. The Institute identifies other factors as the main contributors to housing unaffordability, including insufficient construction of low-cost housing and rental properties, combined with a market favouring property investors.[42]

A 2025 Guardian article reported on modelling by Brendan Rynne, Chief Economist at KPMG, showing that slashing migration could paradoxically lead to higher house prices. In a thought experiment where population growth is reduced to natural increases only, Australia would have 29 million residents by 2035 instead of 31.2 million—a reduction of 2.2 million people.[43]

A smaller labour force would increase competition among employers for workers, raising wages by 7.5% and slightly lowering unemployment. However, reduced population growth would also strain Australia’s ability to fund essential services, particularly as the population ages, and would cumulatively increase house prices by 2.3% over a decade relative to the base case with ongoing migration. Rynne notes that lower demand for housing is outweighed by the shortage of workers available to build new homes, while higher wages contribute to inflation, eroding the benefits of increased pay.[43]

Overall, while migration is not a panacea for all economic challenges, Brendan Rynne emphasizes that a well-managed migration program is likely to provide net economic benefits over the long term.[43]

Foreign investment in residential property

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In December 2008, the federal government introduced legislation relaxing rules for foreign buyers of Australian property. According to FIRB (Foreign Investment Review Board) data released in August 2009, foreign investment in Australian real estate had increased by more than 30% year to date. One agent said that "overseas investors buy them to land bank, not to rent them out. The houses just sit vacant because they are after capital growth."[44]

In 2015, an opinion piece by journalist Michael West claimed that many Chinese buyers were investing in Australian property and suggested that some of the funds may have originated from illegitimate sources. He cited James Tee, an ethnic Chinese property developer, who argued that the outflow of capital from China was accelerating due to the Chinese government's anti-corruption campaign. West urged closer scrutiny of foreign investment and stronger enforcement of existing laws to ensure that illicit money was not being laundered through the Australian property market.[45]

In 2021, the Guardian reported on a survey that found over 80% of Australians thought Chinese investors were driving up house prices. But CoreLogic's research shows foreign investment has been falling since 2014 and isn’t big enough to explain recent price rises. Instead, low interest rates, strong buyer demand, and limited housing supply are the main drivers. The survey’s lead author, Elena Collinson, said media coverage had made foreign investors an 'easy target," even though the evidence doesn’t support it.[46]

A 2025 poll, found that 69% of Australians polled supported a temporary 2 year ban on foreign investment in residential property, only 9% were opposed and 22% were unsure. A second question found that 47% supported a permanent ban, while 29% supported temporary ban and 23% were Undecided.[47]

In April 2025 the ABC reported on Tasmanian House open-source housing project returning agency to owner-builders by providing clear, practical plans that enable people to construct their own homes without relying on expensive, inaccessible housing markets. These designs offer a pathway to self-sufficiency, affordability, and community resilience.[48]

As of 2025, most foreign investors are restricted to buying new or off-the-plan properties, not existing homes. Critics argue that extra stamp duties and surcharges discourage this investment, draining capital from new developments and worsening shortages. The Housing Industry Association (HIA) stresses that foreign investment does not drive demand but instead funds the construction of new homes. HIA Chief Economist Tim Reardon explained: 'Foreign institutional capital does not create housing demand. It creates supply, and Australia cannot build 1.2 million new homes in five years while taxing the capital that is necessary to build those homes." He further warned that taxing this capital reduces the supply of homes being built just as migration continues to surge and create demand — calling it 'the worst own goal in the myriads of housing policy mistakes."[49]

Gearing

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Negative gearing

[edit]
Main article: Negative gearing

Australian property investors often apply the practice of negative gearing. This occurs when the investor borrows money to fund the purchase of the property, and the income generated by the property is less than the cost of owning and managing the property including interest.[50] The investor is expecting that capital gains will compensate for the shortfall. Negative gearing receives considerable media and political attention due to the perceived distortion it creates on residential property prices. In anticipation of Labor being elected in the 2019 federal election, the banks issued less interest only loans which are used by many investors for negative gearing.[51]

In March 2025, The Australia Institute assorted that investor-focused tax policies have played a major role in driving up house prices in Australia. In particular, the 50% capital gains tax discount has encouraged speculation by reducing the tax on profits from property investment, contributing to a rise in demand and higher prices over the past two decades. The institute argues that these tax incentives, rather than foreign buyers or population growth, are a primary factor in declining housing affordability, and that reforms to capital gains taxation could help reduce speculative pressure on the housing market.[52]

Positive gearing

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A property is positively geared when its rental income exceeds the deductible costs of ownership, which include loan interest, council rates, insurance, body corporate fees and maintenance.[53][54] The net profit is taxed at the owner's marginal rate. By contrast, owners of negatively geared properties can deduct their net rental loss against other assessable income such as salary or wages.[55]

A study of investor activity in the Greater Sydney housing market from 1991 to 2018 found that the number of investors rose as rental yields fell, with investors accepting lower yields in expectation of capital growth and the tax benefits available through negative gearing.[54] Positively geared properties are more common in regional centres and lower-priced outer suburbs, where rental yields are higher relative to purchase prices. Negative gearing is more concentrated in the inner suburbs of major capital cities, where prices have risen faster than rents.[54][56]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Stapledon, Nigel. A History of Housing Prices in Australia 1780-2030. School of Economics Discussion Paper: 2010/18. Sydney, Australia: The University of New South Wales Australian School of Business. ISBN 978-0-7334-2956-9. Retrieved 1 May 2011
  2. ^ Monetary Policy
  3. ^ "Australian house prices down in every capital city except Adelaide and Hobart". 2019-03-19. Retrieved 2025-06-04.
  4. ^ "Australian house prices falling at fastest rate in a decade".
  5. ^ a b Stapledon, Nigel (2010-11-18). "A History of Housing Prices in Australia 1880-2010". Search eLibrary. Retrieved 2026-06-09.
  6. ^ a b Burke, Terry; Nygaard, Christian; Ralston, Liss (May 2020). Australian home ownership: past reflections, future directions (Report). AHURI Final Report No. 328. Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute. doi:10.18408/ahuri-5119801.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h Abelson, Peter; Joyeux, Roselyne (December 2025). Housing Rents and Prices in Australia 2000-25: Facts, Explanations and Outcomes (PDF) (Report). TTPI Working Paper 22/2025. Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
  8. ^ Mulligan, Mark (4 May 2015). "Apartments, townhouses continue to drive Australian building approvals". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2026-06-13.
  9. ^ "Housing Prices, Turnover and Borrowing" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2015-07-07. Retrieved 2015-10-03.
  10. ^ a b Ma, Le; Reed, Richard; Liang, Jian (2019). "Separating owner-occupier and investor demands for housing in the Australian states". Journal of Property Investment & Finance. 37 (2): 215–232. doi:10.1108/JPIF-07-2018-0045.
  11. ^ "Negative gearing". EBSCO Research Starters. Retrieved 2026-06-13.
  12. ^ "Question & Answer Session: Property, Debt and Financial Stability". Reserve Bank of Australia. 20 March 2019. Retrieved 2026-06-13.
  13. ^ "Housing Occupancy and Costs". Australian Bureau of Statistics. Retrieved 19 September 2022.
  14. ^ Taylor, Josh (14 July 2022). "'A landlord's market': rents hit record highs across Australia's capital cities". The Guardian. Retrieved 22 September 2022.
  15. ^ "Australia's runaway rents". Australian Broadcasting Commission. 21 September 2022. Retrieved 22 September 2022.
  16. ^ a b Phillips, Ben (2025). Australian Rental Cost Trends (PDF) (Report). POLIS: The Centre for Social Policy Research, Australian National University.
  17. ^ 6416.0 - Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Jun 2015
  18. ^ Property prices in Sydney surge while other capitals underperform: ABS
  19. ^ Sydney forecasts
  20. ^ "Real Estate Sydney NSW 2000". www.microburbs.com.au. Retrieved 2023-06-19.
  21. ^ "House prices change gear with Sydney closing in on $2m". Commonwealth Bank of Australia. 23 October 2025. Retrieved 11 May 2026.
  22. ^ "Australian home prices hit record high in 2025". Commonwealth Bank of Australia. January 2026. Retrieved 11 May 2026.
  23. ^ "Australian home prices hit record high in 2025". Commonwealth Bank of Australia. January 2026. Retrieved 11 May 2026.
  24. ^ "The latest median property prices in Australia's major cities". Property Update. May 2026. Retrieved 11 May 2026.
  25. ^ "The state of Australia's property markets in charts, April 2026". Property Update. April 2026. Retrieved 11 May 2026.
  26. ^ "Australia's two-speed housing market cools as Sydney, Melbourne prices slip in 2026". International Business Times Australia. April 2026. Retrieved 11 May 2026.
  27. ^ "The latest median property prices in Australia's major cities". Property Update. May 2026. Retrieved 11 May 2026.
  28. ^ "Adelaide house prices keep growing as Sydney, Melbourne decline". InDaily. 8 January 2025. Retrieved 11 May 2026.
  29. ^ "2025 Property Market Outlook". Propertyology. 2025. Retrieved 11 May 2026.
  30. ^ "Best of the Best 2025". Cotality. December 2025. Retrieved 11 May 2026.
  31. ^ "The facts on Australian housing affordability". The Conversation.
  32. ^ Is There a Recession Brewing in Our Housing Bubble?
  33. ^ "More Houses Sooner: Australian Housing Demand & Timber Use Scenarios To 2034". FWPA. 2025-02-26. Retrieved 2025-06-04.
  34. ^ Klan, A. (17 March 2007) Locked out Archived 2008-10-22 at the Wayback Machine
  35. ^ Wade, M. (9 September 2006) PM told he's wrong on house prices
  36. ^ a b c d "Microsoft Word - prelims.doc" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 June 2011. Retrieved 14 July 2011.
  37. ^ Claus, E (2005) Submission to the Productivity Commission on Population and Migration (submission 12 to the Productivity Commission's position paper on Economic Impacts of Migration and Population Growth). Archived 27 September 2007 at the Wayback Machine
  38. ^ Nilsson (2005) Negative Economic Impacts of Immigration and Population Growth (submission 9 to the Productivity Commission's position paper on Economic Impacts of Migration and Population Growth). Archived 27 September 2007 at the Wayback Machine
  39. ^ "Australian house prices: Why are they so high?". www.bbc.com. 2025-04-14. Retrieved 2025-09-12.
  40. ^ "'Thrown under the bus': Study concludes international students not to blame for rising rents". ABC News. 2025-03-20. Retrieved 2025-09-12.
  41. ^ Hutchens, Gareth (2025-07-24). "International students have not driven rents and inflation substantially higher, RBA says". ABC News. Retrieved 2025-09-12.
  42. ^ Jericho, Greg (2025-04-28). "Migration is not out of control and the figures show it is not to blame for the housing crisis". The Australia Institute. Retrieved 2025-09-12.
  43. ^ a b c Commins, Patrick (2025-09-09). "Slashing migration would actually lead to higher house prices in Australia. Here's why". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2025-09-12.
  44. ^ "Foreign buyers blow out the housing bubble". Crikey.com.au. 2009-09-21. Retrieved 2016-01-20.
  45. ^ Wall of Chinese capital buying up Australian properties
  46. ^ Zhou, Naaman (2021-07-08). "More than 80% of Australians mistakenly believe Chinese investors are driving up house prices". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2025-09-12.
  47. ^ "Voters back Dutton pledge to block foreign investors buying Australian homes". 2025-01-29. Retrieved 2025-07-06.
  48. ^ "Architect uploads free plan for owner-builders to use". ABC News. 2025-04-12. Retrieved 2025-10-22.
  49. ^ "Foreign capital exodus deepens housing deficit". Housing Industry Association (HIA).
  50. ^ Negative gearing and positive gearing
  51. ^ "Merchant Channels | Investment Banking & Construction Finance". merchantchannels.co. Retrieved 2018-03-07.
  52. ^ Jericho, Greg (2025-03-28). "Migrants are not to blame for soaring house prices". The Australia Institute. Retrieved 2025-10-02.
  53. ^ "Rental expenses you can claim now". Australian Taxation Office. Retrieved 14 May 2026.
  54. ^ a b c Bangura, Mustapha; Lee, Chyi Lin (March 2024). "The impact of negative gearing on the investment decisions of housing investors: the case of Greater Sydney". Journal of Housing and the Built Environment. 39 (1): 21–48. doi:10.1007/s10901-023-10069-3. hdl:1959.4/unsworks_84655.
  55. ^ "Negative gearing". The Treasury (Australia). Retrieved 14 May 2026.
  56. ^ Grudnoff, Matt (2015). Top Gears: How negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount benefit drive up house prices (Report). The Australia Institute.
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