Bellwether

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This article is about the concept of a trend indicator. For Connie Willis's book, see Bellwether (novel). For the fictional character in the film Zootopia, see Zootopia.

A bellwether is one that leads or indicates trends; a trendsetter.

The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading his flock of sheep. The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight.

Politics[edit]

In politics, the term is more often applied in the passive sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can mirror in its popular vote the result on a national scale.

Australia[edit]

In Australian federal elections, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro in New South Wales elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016,when the record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. Following this, the Division of Robertson in NSW became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continually won by party that also won government since the 1983 election. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status in the 2016 election, both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide. The Division of Makin in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 until 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. In purely statistical terms, the state of New South Wales, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the 2016 federal election the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.

Brazil[edit]

In Brazilian direct presidential elections, the states of Bahia and Rio Grande do Norte is where the winning candidate took the lead in the last-round election from 1945 to 2014.[1] Tocantins, since its creation in 1988, always had the winning presidential candidate winning the state lead in votes.

Canada[edit]

In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia-Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011. This streak was broken in 2015. St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it was created in 1935. Also in Ontario, Peterborough has been won by the party who has won the most seats overall in provincial elections since 1977. In Alberta, Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905.

France[edit]

Map of bellwethers in France

Since the fifth republic president was elected by popular vote in 1965 up to 2012, five departments have always voted the chosen candidate in the second round: Ardeche, Calvados, Charente-Maritime, Indre-et-Loire and Loire. No region has done so.[2]

Germany[edit]

Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany) in 1949, the state where the leading party list vote (Zweitstimmen) matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor more times is Schleswig-Holstein (with two misses: 1969 and 2005), followed by the state of Lower Saxony (with misses in 1949, 1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being Kiel and Hannover respectively), nor large rural catholic populations, the traditional base of SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in which Gerhard Schröder was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won). Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972.

Ireland[edit]

Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election, Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government.

New Zealand[edit]

In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton,[3] and Northcote on Auckland's North Shore.[4] Hamilton West and Northcote have only missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the 1993 election for Hamilton West and the 2005 election for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999, and 2005.

Philippines[edit]

In the Philippines, the winner of Philippine presidential election has won in Negros Oriental in all instances since 1935 except for 1961 and 2016, and in Basilan since its creation in December 1973. After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, Basilan's streak that started in 1978 is currently the nation's longest.

For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 and 2016.

Portugal[edit]

In every general election to the National Assembly since the restoration of democracy the electoral district of Braga has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following the elections of 2015, a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.)

Spain[edit]

Since democracy was restored in 1977 up to 2015 elections, three provinces have always voted for the winning party (Teruel, Zaragoza and Huesca) as one Autonomous Community has done (Aragon).[5]

Sweden[edit]

According to Statistics Sweden, election results in Karlstad have been closest to the national results for three consecutive elections, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in the area.[6][7]

United Kingdom[edit]

United Kingdom constituencies have been subject to frequent review since the late 1960s, particularly those of the House of Commons. Few constituencies are unchanged from one review to another. Therefore, true bellwethers are rare. However, it is possible to match new constituencies to old ones according to the destination of the bulk of the old electorate.

In the England, the Dartford constituency has reflected the overall result in every General Election since 1964, the Basildon constituency has reflected every result since its creation in 1974 and the Loughborough constituency has elected an MP to the governing party since the February 1974 election. Gravesham and its predecessor Gravesend had a perfect record of voting for the winning party or the one with the largest share of the vote in every election from the First World War except for 2005, when they voted Conservative with Labour winning the election. Bristol North West is also considered something of a bellwether, with its voters having elected the candidate of the winning party in every election since October 1974, though it failed to do so on a number of occasions prior to this.

Luton South and its predecessors the Luton East and Luton constituencies have elected an MP from the winning party in each election since the 1951 general election until 2010.

Reading West and Amber Valley have elected a candidate from the same party as that holding the overall winning position in every UK General Election since the constituencies were created in 1983.

Scottish Parliament[edit]

In the 1999, 2003 and 2007 Scottish Parliament elections, the constituencies of Cunninghame North, Dundee West, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Fife Central, Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock & Loudoun, Livingston, Stirling and Na h-Eileanan an Iar all elected an MSP from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall. Following boundary changes for the 2011 election, the successor constituencies to all the above seats maintained this trend.

United States[edit]

States[edit]

The American bellwether states (with respect to presidential elections) currently are:

  • Nevada - 1 miss (1976) from 1912 on (96.2%, slightly "too Republican").
  • New Mexico - 2 misses (1976, 2000) from 1912 on (92.3%, "neutral"). The state of New Mexico voted for the winner of the popular vote in 2000.
  • Ohio - 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on (93.3%, slightly "too Republican"). Currently the longest perfect streak.
  • Florida - 2 misses (1960, 1992) from 1928 on (90.9%, slightly "too Republican").

States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century until early 21st century include

In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 on (100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a straw vote on local election day. Also of note, from 1996 through 2012, Ohio has been within 1.85% of the national popular vote result.[11] Due to the Electoral College system, a bellwether of sufficient size is often also a focus of national attention and presidential campaigns as a so-called swing state that can decide the election one way or the other. Currently Ohio and Florida are seen as the most important swing states and indeed no Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio and the controversial decision in Bush v. Gore ultimately hinged on a recount of Florida, that - had it gone for Gore - would have swung the Electoral College vote.

Counties[edit]

American bellwether counties include:

Stock market[edit]

In the stock market, a bellwether (barometer stock in the UK) is a stock that is believed to be a leading indicator of the direction of a sector, industry or market as a whole. Bellwether stocks are often used to determine the direction in which an industry or market is headed in the short term.[26] JPMorgan Chase is an example of a bellwether stock. As one of the major banks in the United States, it sets the tone for the rest of the industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market. Cognizant is similarly a bellwether for Technology stocks in the Indian markets BSE and NSE.

Sociology[edit]

In sociology, the term is applied in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or set trends.

Business[edit]

Trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry are monitored in the quarterly Bellwether Report, published by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA).

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Brazilian presidential electoral maps at Wikimedia Commons
  2. ^ [1]
  3. ^ Ihaka, James (13 October 2008). "Eyes on tussle in bellwether seat". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 September 2011. 
  4. ^ Shepheard, Nicola (7 September 2008). "Street shows swing voters". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 September 2011. 
  5. ^ electionresources.org
  6. ^ "Karlstad röstar som Sverige | Forskning & Framsteg | Populärvetenskapligt magasin". Fof.se. Retrieved 2012-03-24. 
  7. ^ "Som Ljungby röstar - röstar inte Sverige - Statistiska centralbyrån". Scb.se. 2006-03-06. Retrieved 2012-03-24. 
  8. ^ Sullivan, Robert David. "How Delaware Lost its Bellwether Mojo and Joined the Northeast Corridor". America Magazine. Retrieved 13 August 2016. 
  9. ^ Everson, David (February 1990). "Illinois as a bellwether: So what?". Retrieved 13 August 2016. 
  10. ^ Shesgreen, Deirdre (24 June 2012). "Missouri slips from political bellwether status this fall". USA Today. Retrieved 13 August 2016. 
  11. ^ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (see individual election result pages)
  12. ^ "Bellwether States and Counties". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2012-03-24. 
  13. ^ David Leip (2013). "Vigo County, IN Extends Bellwether Streak". Retrieved 2015-10-26. 
  14. ^ "Indiana County Is A Presidential Election Oracle". NPR. Retrieved 2012-03-24. 
  15. ^ Anonymous. "FINAL: VIGO COUNTY ELECTION 2008 RESULTS » Election 2008 » News From Terre Haute, Indiana". Tribstar.com. Retrieved 2012-03-24. 
  16. ^ Indiana Secretary of State. "2012 General Election". Retrieved November 7, 2012. 
  17. ^ a b c d Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections See individual state presidential results county maps. County maps available without a subscription from 1960 - present.
  18. ^ Ohio Secretary of State. "President Results by County Statewide". Retrieved November 10, 2012. 
  19. ^ "The Ohio county that picks presidents is leaning Trump". BBC. 2016-07-23. Retrieved 2016-07-23. 
  20. ^ Handbook of Texas Online - Bexar County
  21. ^ Texas Secretary of State. "Office of the Secretary of State 2012 General Election Election Night Returns for BEXAR COUNTY". Retrieved November 7, 2012. 
  22. ^ Ohio Secretary of State. "President Results by County Statewide". Retrieved November 7, 2012. 
  23. ^ Herdt, Timm (3 November 2012). "Ventura County voters are nearly flawless in picking presidential winners". Ventura County Star. Retrieved 13 August 2016. 
  24. ^ Reinhard, Beth(June 23, 2012). The Cornerstone. National Journal. Retrieved June 24, 2012.
  25. ^ In Race to 270, It May Come Down to 106 Counties. Associated Press. Retrieved October 22, 2012.
  26. ^ http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bellwether-stock.asp