Canadian federal election, 2015 result

The Canadian federal election (formally the 42nd Canadian general election) was held on 19 October, 2015 to elect members to the House of Commons of the 42nd Canadian Parliament. The result indicated a defeat for the ruling Conservative Party led by incumbent Prime Minister Stephen Harper by the Liberal Party led by new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The New Democratic Party led by Thomas Mulcair became the third-largest party. It was followed by regional Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe and the Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May with one seat.

Result overview

↓

184	99	44	10	1
Liberal	Conservative	New Democratic	BQ	G

A polling station on election day.

At 9:41pm EDT, October 19, 2015, CBC News projected that the Liberals had won at least a minority government, and that leader Justin Trudeau would become the next Prime Minister of Canada. Less than an hour later, at 10:36pm EDT, CBC News projected a Liberal majority. The New Democratic Party lost more than half the seats they had held, with Tom Mulcair becoming the first major party leader to concede defeat. The Conservatives dropped down to 99 seats to form the main opposition party, and Stephen Harper resigned as leader of the Conservative Party. The Bloc Québécois regained some ridings they had lost in the previous election, but party leader Giles Duceppe failed to regain the seat he lost back in 2011. Green Party leader Elizabeth May kept her seat.

According to preliminary figures from Elections Canada, more than 68 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot, or about 17,546,697 registered electors—a seven percentage point increase from the 2011 federal election, when turnout was just more than 61 per cent.

Summary analysis

Party		Votes			Seats
	Liberal	6,930,136	39.5%	20.6%	184 / 338 (54%)
	Conservative	5,600,496	31.9%	7.7%	99 / 338 (29%)
	New Democratic	3,461,262	19.7%	10.9%	44 / 338 (13%)
	Bloc Québécois	818,652	4.7%	1.2%	10 / 338 (3%)
	Green	605,864	3.4%	0.5%	1 / 338 (0%)

Elections to the 42nd Parliament of Canada – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2015

Party		2011 (redist.)	Gain from (loss to)					2015
			Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn
	Liberal	36		96	51	1		184
	Conservative	188	(96)		(3)			99
	New Democratic	109	(51)	3		(7)		44
	Bloc Québécois	4	(1)		7			10
	Green	1						1
Total		338	(148)	99	55	(6)		338

  Party candidates in 2nd place

Party in 1st place		Party in 2nd place						Total
		Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	Ind
	Liberal		111	64	8		1	184
	Conservative	81		18				99
	New Democratic	29	11		3	1		44
	Bloc Québécois	8		2				10
	Green		1					1
Total		118	123	84	11	1	1	338

Detailed analysis

Main articles: Results of the Canadian federal election, 2015 and Results by riding of the Canadian federal election, 2015

 Summary of the 2015 Canadian federal election

Party		Party leader	Candidates	Seats						Popular vote
				2011	Dissol.	Redist.1	2015	% Change from 2011	% seats	#	# Change	%	pp Change
	Liberal	Justin Trudeau	3384	34	36	36	184	+441.18%	54.44%	6,930,136	+4,146,961	39.47%	+20.56pp
	Conservative	Stephen Harper	3382	166	159	188	99	-40.36%	29.29%	5,600,496	-231,905	31.89%	-7.73pp
	New Democratic	Tom Mulcair	338	103	953	109	44	-57.28%	13.02%	3,461,262	-1,047,212	19.71%	-10.92pp
	Bloc Québécois	Gilles Duceppe	78	4	2	4	10	+150%	2.96%	818,652	-71,136	4.66%	-1.38pp
	Green	Elizabeth May	336	1	23	1	1	0%	0.3%	605,864	+29,643	3.45%	-0.46pp
	Independent and no affiliation		80	0	8	0	0	0	0	49,905	-22,826	0.28%	-0.21pp
	Libertarian	Tim Moen	72	0	0	0	0	0	0	37,407	+31,390	0.21%	+0.17pp
	Christian Heritage	Rod Taylor	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	15,284	-3,934	0.08%	-0.05pp
	Marxist–Leninist	Anna Di Carlo	70	0	0	0	0	0	0	9,105	-1,055	0.05%	-0.02pp
	Strength in Democracy	Jean-François Fortin	17	N/A	25	N/A	0	0	0	8,298	*	0.05%	*
	Rhinoceros	Sébastien Corriveau	27	0	0	0	0	0	0	7,349	+3,530	0.04%	+0.01pp
	Progressive Canadian	Sinclair Stevens	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	4,472	-1,366	0.03%	-0.01pp
	Communist	Miguel Figueroa	26	0	0	0	0	0	0	4,382	+1,457	0.02%	-0.00pp
	Animal Alliance	Liz White	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,761	+310	0.01%	-0.00pp
	Marijuana	Blair Longley	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,626	-238	0.01%	-0.00pp
	Democratic Advancement	Stephen Garvey	4	N/A	0	N/A	0	0	0	1,187	*	0.01%	*
	Pirate	Roderick Lim	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	906	-2,292	0.01%	-0.01pp
	Canadian Action	Jeremy Arney	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	429	-1,601	0.00%	-0.01pp
	Canada Party	Jim Pankiw	1	N/A	0	N/A	0	0	0	270	*	0.00%	*
	Seniors	Daniel J. Patton	1	N/A	N/A	N/A	0	0	0	158	*	0.00%	*
	Alliance of the North	François Bélanger	1	N/A	N/A	N/A	0	0	0	136	*	0.00%	*
	Bridge	David Berlin	1	N/A	0	N/A	0	0	0	121	*	0.00%	*
	PACT	Michael Nicula	1	N/A	0	N/A	0	0	0	90	*	0.00%	*
	United	Bob Kesic	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	57	-237	0.00%	-0.00pp
	Vacant			0	4	0	0	N/A
Total			1,792	308	308	338	338	+9.74%	100%	17,559,353	+2,838,773	100%
Source: Elections Canada (Preliminary results)

1. The party totals are theoretical. They are the transposition of the 2011 district results redistributed to the new districts formed in 2015.

2. Includes Conservative candidate Jagdish Grewal from Mississauga—Malton, who withdrew his candidacy but whose name still appeared on the ballot.

3. Incumbent MP José Núñez-Melo was denied the NDP nomination in Vimy after the writ was dropped, and subsequently announced he was joining the Green Party.

4. Includes Liberal candidate Cheryl Thomas from Victoria, who withdrew her candidacy but whose name still appeared on the ballot.

5. Does not include Montcalm MP Manon Perreault, who sat as an independent before the writ was dropped, after which she announced her candidacy for Strength in Democracy.

Party summaries

Liberals

In the previous election, the Liberals were cut down to 34 seats, the fewest they had ever won in their history. It was the first time since the nation's founding that the Liberals had not been either in government or the Official Opposition. They picked up one additional seat in a by-election and one via a floor-crossing.

While the Liberals had been expected to regain much of what they had lost in 2015, they tallied the second-best performance in their history; the 184 seats was bettered only by the 193 they won in 1949. It was also the most seats that a party had won since the Progressive Conservatives won a record 211 in 1984.

The Liberal victory came mainly on the strength of a solid performance in the eastern part of the country. They took every seat in Atlantic Canada, and also swept Toronto. They also won all but one seat in Ottawa. Most notably, they won 40 of Quebec's 78 seats, mostly by dominating Montreal. It was the first time since 1980 that the Liberals had won the most seats in Quebec.

After going into the election with only four seats west of Ontario, the Liberals had their best showing in Western Canada in more than two decades. They not only took all but one seat in Winnipeg and all but two seats in Vancouver, but won seats in Alberta for the first time since 2004. Notably, they won two seats in Calgary; they had won only three seats there in their entire history prior to 2015. They were the only party to win seats in every province.

Conservatives

The Conservatives lost 60 seats to become the Official Opposition. They held their own in their heartlands of rural western Canada and central Ontario, and managed a respectable showing in western Ontario and the more rural areas of central Ontario. However, they suffered heavy losses in southern Ontario, a region which had swung heavily to them in 2011. They lost all of their seats in Toronto itself and all but three in the 905 region. They also lost all of their seats in Winnipeg and Vancouver, as well as Atlantic Canada. It will be the first time in decades that there will be no centre-right MPs east of Quebec. They did, however, manage to make some gains in francophone areas of Quebec, mostly at the expense of the NDP.

Several members of Harper's cabinet were defeated, including Bernard Valcourt, Leona Aglukkaq, Gail Shea and Julian Fantino among others.

New Democrats

The NDP, the Official Opposition in the previous parliament, fell to third place with 44 seats, losing more than half of their caucus. For the most part, their support bled over to the Liberals, though they lost a few areas of francophone Quebec to the Conservatives and Bloc.

Bloc Québecois

The Bloc made a modest recovery after being nearly decimated in 2011, rebounding to 10 seats. However, Gilles Duceppe, who had been the longest-serving party leader in Canada at the time of his defeat in 2011, failed to win back his old seat of Laurier—Sainte-Marie. The party also received a smaller share of the popular vote than in the last election. As such, their gains could be attributable to NDP-Liberal vote splitting in francophone ridings more than a surge in popular support.

Results by province

Party name			BC	AB	SK	MB	ON	QC	NB	NS	PE	NL	YT	NT	NU	Total
	Liberal	Seats:	17	4	1	7	80	40	10	11	4	7	1	1	1	184
		Vote:	35.2	24.6	23.9	44.6	44.8	35.7	51.6	61.9	58.3	64.5	53.6	48.3	47.2	39.5
	Conservative	Seats:	10	29	10	5	33	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	99
		Vote:	30.0	59.5	48.5	37.3	35.0	16.7	25.3	17.9	19.3	10.3	24.0	18.0	24.8	31.9
	New Democratic Party	Seats:	14	1	3	2	8	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	44
		Vote:	25.9	11.6	25.1	13.8	16.6	25.4	18.3	16.4	16.0	21.0	19.5	30.8	26.5	19.7
	Bloc Québécois	Seats:						10								10
		Vote:						19.3								4.7
	Green	Seats:	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
		Vote:	8.2	2.5	2.1	3.2	2.9	2.3	4.6	3.4	6.0	1.1	2.9	2.8	1.5	3.4
	Independent and no affiliation	Vote:	0.1	0.8	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.3		2.9				0.2
	Total seats		42	34	14	14	121	78	10	11	4	7	1	1	1	338

10 closest ridings

1. Elmwood—Transcona, MB: Daniel Blaikie (NDP) def. Lawrence Toet (CPC) by 51 votes
2. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK: Georgina Jolibois (NDP) def. Lawrence Joseph (LIB) by 70 votes
3. Edmonton Mill Woods, AB: Amarjeet Sohi (LIB) def. Tim Uppal (CPC) by 79 votes
4. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte, ON: Alex Nuttall (CPC) def. Brian Tamblyn (LIB) by 110 votes
5. Regina—Lewvan, SK: Erin Weir (NDP) def. Trent Fraser (CPC) by 143 votes
6. Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, QC: Bernard Généreux (CPC) def. Marie-Josée Normand (LIB) by 265 votes
7. Kitchener—Conestoga, ON: Harold Albrecht (CPC) def. Tim Louis (LIB) by 351 votes
8. Jonquière, QC: Karine Trudel (NDP) def. Marc Pettersen (Lib) by 369 votes
9. Hastings—Lennox and Addington, ON: Mike Bossio (LIB) def. Daryl Kramp (CPC) by 373 votes
10. Hochelaga, QC: Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet (NDP) def. Marwah Rizqy (LIB) by 461 votes

Notional gains

As a result of the 2012 federal electoral redistribution, thirty new ridings were added and many riding boundaries were changed, so several incumbent MPs who ran chose to do so in new ridings instead of their old ridings.

Liberals

Electoral District		Incumbent		New MP
Alberta	Edmonton Mill Woods		Mike Lake		Amarjeet Sohi
British Columbia	Burnaby North—Seymour		Kennedy Stewart		Terry Beech
	Steveston—Richmond East		Kerry-Lynne Findlay		Joe Peschisolido
Ontario	Bay of Quinte		Daryl Kramp		Neil Ellis
	Brampton East		Bal Gosal		Raj Grewal
	Brampton West		Kyle Seeback		Kamal Khera
	Don Valley East		Joe Daniel		Yasmin Ratansi
	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas		David Sweet		Filomena Tassi
	Nepean		Pierre Poilievre		Chandra Arya
	Oakville North—Burlington		Lisa Raitt		Pam Damoff
	Richmond Hill		Costas Menegakis		Majid Jowhari
Quebec	Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation		Mylène Freeman		Stéphane Lauzon
	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin		Alain Giguère		Yves Robillard

Conservatives

Electoral District		Incumbent		New MP
Ontario	Markham—Unionville		John McCallum		Bob Saroya

New Democrats

Electoral District		Incumbent		New MP
British Columbia	North Island—Powell River		John Duncan		Rachel Blaney
Saskatchewan	Regina—Lewvan		Tom Lukiwski		Erin Weir
	Saskatoon West		Kelly Block		Sheri Benson

Bloc Québécois

Electoral District		Incumbent		New MP
Quebec	Repentigny		Jean-François Larose		Monique Pauzé