Catalan regional election, 2012

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Catalan regional election, 2012
Catalonia
← 2010 25 November 2012 2015 →

All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 5,413,868 Increase0.9%
Turnout 3,668,310 (67.8%)
Increase9.0 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  Artur Mas 2012 (cropped).jpg Oriol Junqueras 2012 (cropped).jpg Pere Navarro 2012b (cropped).jpg
Leader Artur Mas Oriol Junqueras Pere Navarro
Party CiU ERC–CatSí PSC–PSOE
Leader since 7 January 2002 17 September 2011 17 December 2011
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 62 seats, 38.4% 10 seats, 7.0% 28 seats, 18.4%
Seats won 50 21 20
Seat change Red Arrow Down.svg12 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg11 Red Arrow Down.svg8
Popular vote 1,116,259 498,124 524,707
Percentage 30.7% 13.7% 14.4%
Swing Red Arrow Down.svg7.7 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg6.7 pp Red Arrow Down.svg4.0 pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Alicia Sánchez-Camacho (cropped).jpg Joan Herrera 2010 (cropped).jpg Albert Rivera 2012 (cropped).jpg
Leader Alicia Sánchez-Camacho Joan Herrera Albert Rivera
Party PP ICV–EUiA C's
Leader since 6 July 2008 23 November 2008 9 July 2006
Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 18 seats, 12.4% 10 seats, 7.4% 3 seats, 3.4%
Seats won 19 13 9
Seat change Green Arrow Up Darker.svg1 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg3 Green Arrow Up Darker.svg6
Popular vote 471,681 359,705 274,925
Percentage 13.0% 9.9% 7.6%
Swing Green Arrow Up Darker.svg0.6 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg2.5 pp Green Arrow Up Darker.svg4.2 pp

CataloniaProvinceMapParliament2012.png
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Catalonia

President before election

Artur Mas
CiU

Elected President

Artur Mas
CiU

The 2012 Catalan regional election was held on Sunday, 25 November 2012, to elect the 10th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

This was a snap election, announced on 25 September by President Artur Mas.[1] It was called following the pro-independence demonstration in Barcelona on 11 September (the National Day of Catalonia), as a result of the failed talks between President of Catalonia Artur Mas (Convergence and Union) and Prime Minister of Spain Mariano Rajoy (People's Party) to give greater fiscal autonomy to Catalonia.[2]

Despite Artur Mas campaigning to win an absolute majority of seats, in the end his party, Convergence and Union (CiU), suffered a large electoral setback, largely unnoticed by opinion polls. The Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) also fared badly, obtaining the worst result in its history (a record which had already been broken in the 2010 election). While polling in third place, Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) was able to attract the growing pro-independence movement and recovered the 21 seats it had lost in the previous election, becoming the main parliamentary opposition party for the first time.

The People's Party of Catalonia (PPC) and Citizens (C's) benefitted from the electoral polarization between the pro-independence and anti-independence blocs, scoring their best results until then, with 19 and 9 seats, respectively. The Popular Unity Candidates (CUP) entered in the Parliament for the first time with 3 seats.

Electoral system[edit]

No electoral law was in force at the time, with election rules for the Parliament regulated under the electoral system for the Congress of Deputies and special provisions within the regional Statute of Autonomy. The Parliament of Catalonia was elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation. Under the Statute, the Parliament was entitled to a minimum of 100 members and a maximum of 150, which provisional statutory rules set to 135. All seats were allocated to four multi-member districts—each corresponding to a province, with allocation awarding 85 seats to Barcelona, 17 to Girona, 15 to Lleida and 18 to Tarragona—. A threshold of 3% of valid votes—which included blank ballots—was applied in each constituency, with parties not reaching the threshold not taken into consideration for seat distribution.

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all residents over eighteen and in the full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote—however, amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Spaniards abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "requested" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado)—. Concurrently, residents meeting the previous criteria and not involved in any cause of ineligibility were eligible for the Parliament. Gender quotas were introduced in 2007, requiring for party lists to be composed of at least 40% of candidates of either gender and for each group of five candidates to contain at least two males and two females. Groups of electors were required to obtain the signatures of at least 1% of registered electors in a particular district in order to be able to field candidates, whereas parties and coalitions left out from Parliament in the previous election were required to obtain the signatures of at least 0.1% of registered electors in the districts they intended to contest.

The President had the ability to dissolve the chamber at any given time and call a snap election; otherwise, elected deputies served for four year terms, starting from election day. Additionally, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved in the event of unsuccessful investiture attempts failing to elect a President within a two-month period from the first ballot, triggering a snap election likewise.[3][4][5]

Background[edit]

In the 2010 election, Convergence and Union (CiU) was returned to power after 7 years in opposition, as a result of the electoral collapse of all three parties comprising the "Catalan tripartite" government (Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV). Newly-elected President of Catalonia Artur Mas was able to govern comfortably thanks to his party's large parliamentary representation allowing for punctual support of several parties on different issues, in what was known as a policy of "variable geometry".[6][7] In 2011, CiU signed several agreements with the People's Party of Catalonia (PPC) in order to pass the 2011 and 2012 budgets, as well as for the approval of several spending cuts. In spite of this, the relationship between both parties quickly deteriorated after the 2011 general election, as a result of Mas asking new Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy (of the People's Party) for greater fiscal autonomy for Catalonia.[8][9]

On 11 September 2012, a massive pro-independence demonstration marked the Catalan political agenda and re-opened the debate about the right to hold a referendum on the independence of Catalonia,[10][11][12] as well as the debate about the feasibility of an independent Catalan state and its integration into the European Union. On 25 September 2012, President of the Generalitat of Catalonia Artur Mas announced a snap regional election to be held on 25 November and argued, referring to the demonstration, that "this election will not be held to help a party [referring to CiU] to perpetuate itself in power. It will be held so that the whole of the Catalan population decides democratically and peacefully what will their future be as a nation."[13] President Mas signed the decree to officially call the Catalan election on 1 October.[14] Mas' move was criticized as an attempt to try to funnel the popular support for independence seen in the September demonstration into an absolute majority of seats in the election.[15]

Opinion polls[edit]

Vote[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Seat projections[edit]

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Voting preferences[edit]

Vote intention[edit]

Polls shown below show the recording of raw responses for each party as a percentage of total responses before disregarding those who opted to abstain and prior to the adjusting for the likely votes of those who were undecided to obtain an estimate of vote share. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.

Results[edit]

Overall[edit]

Summary of the 25 November 2012 Parliament of Catalonia election results
CataloniaParliamentDiagram2012.svg
Party Popular vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Won +/−
Convergence and Union (CiU) 1,116,259 30.71 –7.72 50 –12
Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE) 524,707 14.43 –3.95 20 –8
Republican Left of Catalonia–Catalonia Yes (ERC–CatSí) 498,124 13.70 +6.70 21 +11
People's Party (PP) 471,681 12.98 +0.61 19 +1
Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left (ICV–EUiA) 359,705 9.90 +2.53 13 +3
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 275,007 7.57 +4.18 9 +6
Popular Unity Candidacy–Left Alternative (CUP) 126,435 3.48 New 3 +3
Platform for Catalonia (PxC) 60,107 1.65 –0.75 0 ±0
Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI) 46,838 1.29 –2.00 0 –4
Blank ballots 52,898 1.46 –1.47
Total 3,635,170 100.00 135 ±0
Valid votes 3,635,170 99.10 –0.19
Invalid votes 33,140 0.90 +0.19
Votes cast / turnout 3,668,310 67.76 +8.98
Abstentions 1,745,558 32.24 –8.98
Registered voters 5,413,868
Source(s): Department for Interior and Institutional Relations of Catalonia, historiaelectoral.com
Popular vote
CiU
  
30.71%
PSC–PSOE
  
14.43%
ERC–CatSí
  
13.70%
PP
  
12.98%
ICV–EUiA
  
9.90%
C's
  
7.57%
CUP
  
3.48%
PxC
  
1.65%
SI
  
1.29%
Others
  
2.84%
Blank ballots
  
1.46%
Seats
CiU
  
37.04%
ERC–CatSí
  
15.56%
PSC–PSOE
  
14.81%
PP
  
14.07%
ICV–EUiA
  
9.63%
C's
  
6.67%
CUP
  
2.22%

Distribution by constituency[edit]

Constituency CiU PSC ERC PP ICV–EUiA C's CUP
 % S  % S  % S  % S  % S  % S  % S
Barcelona 28.1 26 15.4 14 12.7 12 13.3 12 11.1 10 8.4 8 3.4 3
Girona 43.0 9 10.1 2 17.8 3 9.6 2 5.9 1 3.6 4.2
Lleida 43.1 8 10.4 1 17.4 3 11.3 2 5.4 1 3.3 3.0
Tarragona 31.7 7 13.6 3 15.1 3 15.0 3 6.9 1 7.3 1 3.6
Total 30.7 50 14.4 20 13.7 21 13.0 19 9.9 13 7.6 9 3.5 3

Post-election[edit]

Investiture voting[edit]

21 December 2012
Investiture voting for Artur Mas (CiU)

Absolute majority: 68/135
Vote Parties Votes
YesY Yes CiU (50), ERC (21)
71 / 135
No PSC (20), PP (18), ICV (13), C's (9), CUP (3)
63 / 135
Abstentions
0 / 135
1 PPC deputy missed the voting.
Source: historiaelectoral.com

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d Poll results are shown projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other polls, a rule of three has been applied to the poll projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.
  2. ^ This poll provides data ranges, approximations and/or various electoral scenario hypotheses calculated using similar weighting parameters. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Mas: "I have decided to dissolve Parliament and call an election for 25 November"" (in Catalan). El Punt Avui. 2012-09-25. Retrieved 2012-09-25. 
  2. ^ Spain's Catalonia region to hold early elections on Nov 25, Reuters
  3. ^ Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia of 2006, Organic Law No. 6 of July 19, 2006 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 14 March 2017.
  4. ^ Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia of 1979, Organic Law No. 4 of December 18, 1979 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 14 March 2017.
  5. ^ General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985, Organic Law No. 5 of June 19, 1985 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 28 December 2016.
  6. ^ "PSC, PP and ERC criticize the variable geometry of a Mas defending "broad consensus"" (in Spanish). El Economista. 2011-07-06. 
  7. ^ "Sánchez-Camacho to Mas: 'The variable geometry will not always work'" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2012-01-18. 
  8. ^ "Mas and Sánchez-Camacho sign the CiU-PP pact for the budget" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 2011-06-11. 
  9. ^ "CiU and PP ally again to maintain the sanitary cuts" (in Spanish). El País. 2011-10-20. 
  10. ^ "Catalan parties assess the independence demonstration" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 2012-09-12. 
  11. ^ "Independentism marks the political agenda in a critical autumn for the Spanish State" (in Spanish). Gara. 2012-09-23. 
  12. ^ "CiU, ICV-EUiA, ERC and SI negotiate a resolution for self-determination" (in Spanish). El Periódico de Catalunya. 2012-09-24. 
  13. ^ "Mas sets course for self-determination" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-09-24. 
  14. ^ "Mas: "Ningú no pot utilitzar les armes contra la voluntat d'un poble"". Nació Digital. 1 October 2012. Retrieved 1 October 2012. 
  15. ^ "Catalan election: Mas asks for an absolute majority like the one of the Scottish SNP for a referendum" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 2012-11-19. 

External links[edit]